View From Abroad: European lessons for Asian security (Originally published 14/02/2015 at dawn.com)
The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.
View from Abroad: As Germany versus Greece, it’s about the people (Originally published 07/02/2015 at dawn.com)
The epic battle being fought between a tough-talking Germany which appears to want each and every European to “tighten his/her belt” and Greece’s new anti-austerity government is tearing the European Union apart.The confrontation reveals many fissures in the 28-nation bloc. For some, it’s a fight between David (Greece) and Goliath (Germany). In other words, Europe’s biggest and most powerful economy is shamefully bullying the weakest. But, as in the legend, many are betting that David will win.Others point to a confrontation between Protestant Germany which believes in under-spending, under-consuming and putting aside money for tough times and Orthodox Greece which has spent, spent, spent and is now hopelessly broke.German media rant against the lazy, good-for-nothing Greeks who are looking for more handouts. Greeks rage against a heartless Germany obsessed with austerity.The real fight, however, is not about religion, cultural prejudices, stereotypes, racist clichés and worse. It is about European priorities, values and what comes first: money or people? The battle is for the hearts — or the minds — of Europeans. For the moment, there are no winners.With their demands for a renegotiation of their country’s crippling debt burden and an end to austerity, the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis are appealing to the hearts of the millions of Europeans — especially young Europeans — who have been devastated by the economic crisis.Growth may be picking up slowly but jobs are still scarce. Greece has undoubtedly been hit the hardest by the crisis. Germans say angrily that Greece was also the most profligate of the Eurozone nations. For the moment, Germany is refusing to consider debt relief for its southern partner.Across the bloc, the debate has pitted economists against each other, put the European Central Bank on a collision course with Athens and triggered an even greater rift between Berlin and Athens. EU member states are reluctant to take sides, wary of getting on the wrong side of Berlin and triggering panic in world financial markets.But Greece has sympathisers in France, Spain and Portugal, countries which have also been wriggling in Germany’s tight grip.During a much-publicised “charm offensive” last week, Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis sought to speak to the hearts of all Europeans when he urged Germany not to humiliate his country over its debts.Interestingly, Varoufakis’ sartorial style — he eschews the finance ministers’ uniform of white shirt and dark suit in favour of bright shirts and leather jackets — has been the subject of as much media comment as his stance on his country’s economic plight.The Greek finance chief has compared Greece’s situation with that of interwar Germany, telling German television: “I think of all the countries in Europe, the Germans understand best this simple message. If you humiliate a proud nation for too long and subject it to the worry of a debt deflation crisis, without light at the end of a tunnel then things come to the boil.”Differences between the two countries were in strong evidence at a tense press conference after a meeting in Berlin, when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Varoufakis “agreed to disagree” over the proposals of the Syriza-led anti-austerity government.Both men refrained from angry outbursts but if there is to be a compromise, it will take time to emerge.While economists in Berlin and Athens battle it out with figures and percentage points, the rest of Europe is mourning the demise of what is often viewed as one of the bloc’s most significant and valuable achievements: solidarity.Working together, looking after each other and taking care of the most disadvantaged were supposed to be the key values and the fundamental basis of the EU. Solidarity was supposed to make the EU go round. But the economic crisis has shown the limits of solidarity.At a recent conference in Brussels, a German academic complained with a mixture of anger and sadness that Berlin was so focused on numbers that it was forgetting the human dimension of the economic crisis. “They tell me this crisis is about money, not about people,” she said.It is also my experience. In meeting after meeting, policymakers, academics, business leaders discuss the pros and cons of austerity versus growth, myriad ways to stimulate the economy, tackle global competition and increase productivity.There is little mention of the tragic toll the crisis has taken on many Europeans, especially young people, or of the growing disconnect between Europe’s decision-makers and European citizens.While European finance ministers scramble to find a satisfactory compromise, Tsipras and Varoufakis have made their point: it’s about the people, stupid.
View From Abroad: Ties with China are bright spot in Europe’s foreign policy (Originally published 31/01/2015 at dawn.com)
The new European Union Commission, in office since November last year, likes to talk of a “fresh start” for Europe. There is upbeat talk of streamlining EU actions, simplifying procedures, launching a new era of mega investment projects and revving up growth.The reality is more complicated. The election in Greece of a new anti-austerity coalition government headed by Alexis Tsipras has highlighted growing dissent and anger in the Eurozone over the unrelentingly rigid fiscal policies imposed by Germany and followed by the EU.The much-publicised 315 billion euro investment plan launched by the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker may look impressive on paper but is seen by many as too woolly to really generate the growth and jobs that Europe needs so desperately.Additionally, the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier in January means that the Far Right and anti-Islamic parties continue to gain traction and become ever more dominant in the debate on immigration.It’s equally bleak on the foreign policy front. Relations with Russia remain tense. Although there is almost agreement among the 28 EU nations on the need to maintain sanctions against Moscow, depending on their national histories and experiences, European foreign ministers’ attitudes towards Moscow range from very tough (the Baltic states and some Central and Eastern European countries) to soft (Greece and Italy).In the south, the EU is struggling to forge a coherent and meaningful strategy towards Turkey and its other Southern Mediterranean neighbours as well as the Islamic State (IS). European governments also remain divided over whether or not to recognise an independent Palestinian state.Further afield, relations with Japan, South Korea and India remain largely lacklustre and uninspiring. Unlike US President Barack Obama, no European leader can claim to have a glamorous bromance with India’s celebrity Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Japan’s Shinzo Abe.Not surprisingly therefore to many observers in Asia, EU foreign policy seems slow and plodding, focused almost exclusively on trade and business and not enough on a long-term strategy for closer political and security ties.There is one striking exception, however: China. Surprisingly in a world of flux, EU-China relations remain relatively strong, vibrant and multifaceted even as Europe dithers over Russia, India and other emerging nations.The point was made at a meeting of European think tanks in Brussels this week, with experts agreeing that Europe and China must up their engagement. Such consensus is rare in Brussels, especially among academics.Certainly, it’s their mutual economic interdependence that keeps EU-China ties dynamic and buoyant. China’s growth rates may be slowing down but its appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery.China’s economic transformation — and plans for even more change in the coming years — demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology.China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments. Both sides are negotiating a formal treaty to further boost mutual investment flows.Increasingly, also in Brussels there is recognition that a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials.Europe’s one-time ambition to shape China into a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising. But there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues including relations with, Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significantly, China has invested time, effort and money into upping its relations with Europe. Beijing is working on several tracks at the same time. The focus in recently years has been on further consolidating the China-Germany “special relationship” but also reinforcing ties with former communist nations in Central and Eastern Europe, countries in the Western Balkans and also Nordic states.Responding to critics who complained that Beijing was paying too much attention to European member states and not enough to the EU, Chinese leaders have made it a point in recent months to visit Brussels.The result is a surprisingly solid and well-rounded EU-China relationship which could even become a model for other Asian countries.A key problem, however, is that the EU still treats China as just another emerging nation rather than the regional and global mammoth that it has become. The emphasis is on bread and butter issues like trade and investments, urbanisation, good and valid subjects but do not reflect Beijing’s increasing global clout and outreach.The EU should be looking at thrashing out a new narrative for China which is truly strategic and considers issues like global governance, sustainable development goals and international terrorism.In other words, as the EU and China prepare to celebrate 40 years of their relationship, the EU-China relationship should move from the ritualistic to the strategic — as quickly as possible.
This time it can be different: SDGs need more funds, changes in mindset (Originally published 26/01/2015 at friendsofeurope.org)
Prepare for a pivotal year for development cooperation. For most of 2015, the focus will be on seeking to define a transformative agenda for poverty eradication and shaping social, economic and environmental development over the next 15 years.Priority attention will be on knitting together a “post-2015” blueprint for poverty eradication and sustainable development which follows on from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of 2000 and the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20). Agreement on the “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs) is expected at the UN General Assembly in September this year.Consensus on a new set of goals – however long – is important in order to focus minds and ensure more coherence in global development. Even more crucially, however, implementation of the SDGs will demand a broader, more inclusive mindset, more international consultation and certainly more active civil society engagement. Additional resources, renewed attention on updating existing financial tools and instruments and creating new ones will also be needed.As such, the conference on Financing for Development Conference to be held in Addis Ababa in July must be well-prepared, with participants ready to look at traditional and innovative ways to fund growth and development.Also in 2015, a climate change agreement is hoped for at the December COP21 ministerial meeting in Paris. Last but not least, the EU has designated 2015 as its first-ever European Year of Development.Significantly, the 2015 summits are linked. An agreement at the Addis Ababa financing conference will provide momentum for the dialogue on the SDGs which will, in turn, create an impetus ahead of the critical climate talks.A radically changed environmentThe rhetoric in 2000 was impressive. But fifteen years after the adoption of the MDGs, the jury is still out on nations’ record in meeting the eight targets. The headline goal for extreme poverty reduction appears to have been met five years ahead of its target. Significant successes in school enrolment and mortality rates for under-fives have been achieved (albeit at slightly less than target rates). However, progress in meeting other important indicators remains patchy.This time, it’s different. The MDGs were brief, focused, easily understood and communicated – and represented a rare international consensus for development. The SDGs reflect the concerns and priorities of a radically changed world. As EU Development Commissioner Neven Mimica pointed out, “the world is a very different place in 2015 to what it was in 2000. We can no longer focus only on eradicating poverty; today’s challenges are much more inter-related and we have to make sure that we achieve sustainable development in all of its three dimensions: environmental, social and economic.”The SDG consultative process has been long and painstaking. The 17 SDGs and 169 targets agreed by the United Nations Open Working Group and endorsed by the General Assembly last year, represent a global wish list and cover the broad themes of the MDGs – ending poverty and hunger, and improving health, education and gender equality – but also include specific goals to reduce inequality, make cities safe, address climate change and promote peaceful societies. As such, they bring together two frontiers – development and climate – and tackle global public goods problems as well as national obstacles. There’s something for everyone – almost.For purists, the list is too long, the goals too disparate. “What the world needs is a plan of action to replace the Millennium Development Goals. What’s on offer is a shopping list,” according to Kevin Watkins, Director at the Overseas Development Institute. “The 17 SDGs and 169 targets cover everything from the urgent and measurable – eliminating poverty, cutting child deaths, universal provision of education, water and sanitation, and climate stability – to the vaguely aspirational.”Certainly, the goals are going to be much more complex to describe, implement and monitor.On the plus side, however, the SDGs could encourage a more holistic approach to development and offer a chance for more partnerships and collaboration. Crucially, the SDGs will be universal, which means all countries – rich and poor – will be required to consider them when crafting their national policies. This is different from the MDGs, which were applicable to all and marketed as anti-poverty goals for poor countries.Significantly, the adoption of the SDGs goes beyond the pure development agenda. They signal a determination by nations to jointly tackle complex global challenges. The importance of sustainable development will be accepted and highlighted as fundamental. Not least, they will reinforce an unprecedented process of international consultation and commitment at a time when many are sceptical about multilateral cooperation.Global partnership for development.MDG 8 urged development actors to forge a global partnership for development. Turning that ambition into reality means focusing on finding the resources to implement the post-2015 agenda. “Funding is crucial for credibility on climate and post-2015 efforts,” according to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon who believes that all public, private, domestic and international funding sources need to be tapped.Public financing and Official Development Aid (ODA) will be central to supporting the implementation of the SDGs. But money generated from the private sector, through tax reforms, and through a crackdown on illicit financial flows and corruption will be vital.Certainly, there will be less ODA to spur implementation. Aid flows look set to stagnate at best, and continue declining in importance to emerging economies. Public-private partnerships will be crucial. New development actors are emerging as an important source of funds for developing countries, especially for the financing of infrastructure. Foreign direct investments (FDI) in emerging countries are on the rise as are impact investments, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities and philanthropy.Remittances from workers abroad are a huge boon to their countries of origin. Governments are also under pressure to increase domestic resource mobilisation through more effective tax collection and anti-corruption measures.According to Amina J Mohammed, special advisor to the UN Secretary General on post-2015 development planning, “the private sector also has responsibilities and all must work in partnership, within and across sectors,” adding: “Indeed, partnership is critical but means so much more than just collaboration. Partnership is about the integration of visions, values, plans, accountability, resources and knowledge sharing.The world in 2015 will continue to be a difficult and hazardous place. The SDGs are one way of ensuring that the goal of a fairer, more equal and more stable world is kept alive.
Forget the headlines: Life is getting better (Originally published 24/01/2015 at dawn.com)
Cast a glance at the headlines and it’s clear: the world is a violent, cruel and unforgiving place. Inequality is rampant. Terrorists stalk our streets. Poor, homeless people crowd our shelters. It’s bleak and grim — and not getting better.
View From Abroad: Islamic nations should not meddle in European Muslims lives (Originally published 17/01/2015 at dawn.com)
It must be said loud and clear and repeatedly: governments in Islamic countries must stop meddling in the lives of European Muslims.Many of the 20 million or so Muslims in the European Union may still hold passports of their countries of birth, in addition to their European nationalities. They may also have families in their countries of origin, harbour fond memories of lives (or their parents’ lives) there and retain a link to these nations.But make no mistake: the concerns, priorities, needs — and values — of European Muslims are very different from those living elsewhere, not just in Muslim-majority countries but also in North America.There is an exception to this: radicalised Muslims across the globe are being financed, trained, incited and equipped by Wahabi/Salafi extremist groups with their origins in Saudi Arabia and a few other Middle East nations.Wahabi tentacles reach deep into many European Muslim and American Muslim communities just as they do across the world, including Pakistan. And the results are the same: radicalisation, extremism and — in some cases — terrorism in the name of ‘jihad’.But the majority of European Muslims — especially those born and bred in Europe or those who have made Europe their permanent home — have long stopped obsessing about what happens in Turkey, Algeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Egypt. They care, certainly, for these and other countries and can even help on both the political and economic fronts. But their lives and future are here in Europe. Quite simply: they are European.And just like other Europeans, their focus is on jobs, education, housing and security. Yes, European Muslims sometimes face discrimination and racism — and certainly there is a rise in anti-Islam feeling in the wake of the Paris tragedy. The rise of the toxic Far Right is a cause for concern and anxiety.But no, mostly, Muslims in Europe don’t want to go ‘back home’. Europe is their home.They certainly don’t need the ‘support’ and ‘sympathy’ of non-European Muslim leaders and governments who know nothing of Europe and whose comments — possibly well-meant — can make things worse.Take the justifiable and widespread derision at the presence of leaders from many Muslim countries at the demonstration in Paris last week in favour of freedom of expression and against terrorism, following the murder of 12 people, including two Muslims, at the Charlie Hebdo magazine.Yes, it was hypocritical and ironic, even amusing. Many of the male leaders (I did not see any Muslim female leaders) who walked solemnly in Paris are not well-known for their defence of human rights, freedom of expression and commitment to diversity. They engage in torture, repression and worse. Many support extremist groups. They clamp down hard on dissent.Some of these leaders deserve special mention. In Brussels this week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a strong and very valid call for an “inclusive European identity”, arguing passionately that Turks and Muslims in Europe should not be the target of discrimination. Just as he had marched in Paris, non-Muslim European leaders should show the same solidarity when mosques are burned, he argued.Quite true. If only Turkey did not have one of the largest number of journalists in prison, had not arrested some of the country’s top journalists working for the Zaman newspaper and did not have more than 70 Turkish journalists currently being investigated for referring to the corruption allegations against close associates of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa marched in Paris, seemingly oblivious to the fact that 12 Bahraini journalists are currently detained in Bahrain, the youngest only 15.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to France had the gall to be in the demonstration while his government has publicly flogged blogger Raef Badawi for ‘insulting Islam’ and sentenced him to 10 years in prison. And there are more floggings to come, up to 1,000 lashes.Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was also there although his government has jailed three Al-Jazeera journalists. The blacklist also included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.It’s not just their presence at these marches that irks, it’s also their comments on European Muslims’ lives. Yes, many of the European Muslim community were offended and disturbed by the Charlie Hebdo cartoons. But many were not. And those who do object make their feelings known through court cases, articles and discussions.And if they really don’t like it in Europe, Ahmed Aboutaleb, the Muslim mayor of Rotterdam, recently argued that they can leave.“It’s incomprehensible that you can be against freedom like that. But if you don’t like that freedom, pack your bags and leave,” Aboutaleb said to the Huffington Post, adding: “If you can’t find your place in the Netherlands, in the way we want to build a society together, leave.”Originally from Morocco and the son of an imam, Aboutaleb moved to the Netherlands in 1976 when he was 15 years old. Since becoming mayor of Rotterdam in 2009, he has broken new ground for minorities and Muslims across Europe.Europe has many examples of well-integrated, tax-paying, peaceful and successful European Muslims. There are Muslim politicians, business leaders, artists, doctors and lawyers. They may sometimes face prejudice — young European Muslims in France but also elsewhere are disenfranchised and angry. But mostly Muslims make a positive contribution to Europe’s diverse societies.If they are honest, many admit that they are better off here in Europe than in Mirpurkhas or Anatolia.Muslims need to strike a seminal “win-win” big bargain with the countries they call home. They should leave no doubt about their allegiance and loyalty to Europe, their commitment to universal values of tolerance, democracy and human rights.In exchange, they must be recognised and celebrated as fully fledged, active and constructive European citizens. Those who commit terrorist attacks should not be labelled ‘Muslims’ — they are murderers and criminals and should be tried as such.There is no room in such a social contract for meddling by non-Europeans, however well-intentioned. Despite the toxic Far-Right messages, the unfortunate media hype and the anger in the wake of the Paris attacks, Europe is a multi-cultural and diverse continent — even if sometimes, Europeans forget it.
View from Abroad: Peshawar, Paris, Pegida and me (Originally published 10/01/2015 at dawn.com)
Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does.On the second day of my long-awaited trip to Pakistan in December last year, I woke up to the news of the horrible massacre of school children in Peshawar.Like most people, I wept for the innocent lost lives, the bereaved families and a once honourable country which has lost its path, becoming mired in ever-more indecent violence and barbarism.As I made my way home to Brussels a few days into 2015, I was preparing to write about Pegida, Germany’s nascent and very toxic ‘anti-Islamisation’ movement which is making headlines across the globe.But then tragedy struck again as terrorists, unfortunately and wrongly, described as Islamists gunned down 12 people at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, the Paris-based satirical magazine.As France and the world mourned the dead and worried about the freedom of expression, diversity and tolerance, I asked myself: how many tears can you shed? How long and often can you weep? Will the hatred, violence and extremism ever end?I don’t know the answers but I know that whether we recognise the link or not, Peshawar, Paris and Pegida are, tragically, connected.I know that money, encouragement and support for the extremists whether in the Middle East, Pakistan, Asia or Europe can be traced to extremist Wahabi state and non-state actors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.I know that Far Right groups in Europe and the United States are spreading a hysterical and toxic anti-Islam message, gaining traction and popularity as the economic slowdown persists and unemployment continues to rise.I know that politicians in Europe, the US and the Muslim world are unwilling and unable to rise to the challenge of building a strong counter-narrative of tolerance and discrimination.I know that 2015 is going to be a defining, testing year for humanity’s ability to live together in peace while accepting differences in religion, colour and culture.I know that the violence-loving, gun-toting men and (some) women who kill, maim and torture are outside the boundaries of any religion. There is no “Islamic State”, only murderers and criminals. There is no “good” Taliban, just blood-thirsty barbarians.I know that just as is the case for freedom-loving people in Pakistan, life for Muslims in Europe is going to get tougher in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks.But I also know that sanity and good sense will probably and hopefully prevail in both Pakistan and Europe.In the end, it’s not the politicians who will stop the rot. It is the people, the ordinary men, women and young people who say “enough is enough” to violence and intolerance.I know it is possible. As we visited Lahore only hours before the massacre in Peshawar, girls and boys came up to us to talk and take pictures, giggling and chuckling, proud of Pakistan and their heritage.The Badshahi Mosque and the Lahore Fort sparkled in the sun but it was the laughter and the cheeky jokes of the young men and women that warmed our souls.This was Pakistan the way it really is, the way it should always be. Hours later as we tried to come to grips with the tragedy in Peshawar, I took solace in the hope I had seen in the eyes of the young people of Lahore.In Europe too, it is the people who will stop the continent from descending into a dangerous downward spiral of anti-Muslim sentiment.True, the Far Right is gaining momentum. Talk of a “clash of civilisations” is rife. But equally those who want a multicultural and tolerant Europe are speaking out.Pegida gatherings have been dwarfed by massive counter-demonstrations in Dresden, Berlin and Cologne where people have spoken in support of immigrants and condemned intolerance.The famous Cologne cathedral and Berlin’s Brandenburg gate have switched off lighting as a sign of protest against xenophobic rallies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against hate and discrimination.In the aftermath of the Paris killings, European governments will certainly clamp down hard on radicals and would-be terrorists. They are right to do so. But in the medium and long-term, European politicians must also focus on the compelling need to integrate and accept their Muslim citizens.Retribution and revenge must not be allowed to take centre stage. If it does, it will play into the hands of the extremists.This is a dangerous moment. Yes, it is war. But it not a conflict between Islam and the West. The battle being fought so cruelly is between people who believe in humanity and criminals and terrorists who, quite simply, want to kill.
Shada Islam quoted in ‘Paris killings likely to fuel anti-Islam movements in Europe’ (Bloomberg News 07/01/2015)
The killing of at least 12 people at a French newspaper that received threats because of its depiction of Islam stands to exacerbate already burgeoning anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe.The shooting by masked gunmen at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in eastern Paris adds to a tense environment, with an anti-immigrant party dominating in France, mosque burnings in Sweden and thousands marching in Germany decrying the “Islamization” of the west...Europe’s political establishment, struggling to respond to the region’s sagging economy and near-record unemployment, has been buffeted by insurgent factions that have exploited a rise in sentiment against foreigners and Muslims.“Europe is in the grip of so much tension over the question of Islam and immigration,” said Shada Islam, director of policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels. “There is the danger in the immediate aftermath that this is going to strengthen the anti-immigration campaigns, but you have to have a longer-term strategy when the emotions subside.”In France, polls show the anti-immigration National Front taking the lead in a first-round vote over established parties. The National Front has gained at least some traction by voicing fear of the spread of Islam. The country is home to Europe’s largest Muslim population, with more than 5 million people of the faith out of a population of about 65 million.World leaders lined up to condemn the shooting, the deadliest attack in France since World War II, with President Francois Hollande calling it an assault of “exceptional barbarity” against journalists and a free press. U.S. President Barack Obama said in a statement that “I strongly condemn the horrific shooting.”For the full article, visit https://www.centralmaine.com/2015/01/07/paris-killings-likely-to-fuel-anti-islam-movements-in-europe/
Shada Islam quoted in 'Europe Muted on CIA Torture Report Amid Islamic State Conflict' (The Washington Post with Bloomberg 10/12/2014)
European governments gave a muted response to a U.S. report on Central Intelligence Agency torture, declining the opportunity to criticize the Obama administration amid concerns over current security threats.
While China accused the U.S. of hypocrisy, the European Union and the U.K. moderated their response to the findings of the report by Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
“There’s a deep reluctance to open old wounds just as we face the challenge of Islamic State and parts of the Middle East go up in flames,” Shada Islam, Director of Policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said in a phone interview. “Many European governments were complicit or at least turned a blind eye to what the CIA was doing.”
The report, which focused on the agency’s “enhanced interrogation techniques” in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, revealed that U.S.-held terrorism suspects received more brutal treatment than previously known.
For the full article, visit http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NGBYTJ6K50YD01-0BB8G4EV8H8HOEQDREHOMQHNBP
View from Abroad: Pakistan’s choice (Originally published 6/12/2014 at dawn.com)
As I prepare to travel to Pakistan — the first such visit in five years — I am filled with admiration, amazement and apprehension. They say the past is a different country. And Pakistan is certainly a very different country from the one I left all those years ago.Pakistan and I have both changed. I am obviously older (but not wiser) than the young, naive and rather demure girl who boarded the plane from Islamabad to Brussels with her parents and sister. At the time, I believed I would be away for a few months, may be a couple of years. Several decades later, Europe has become a core part of my identity and existence and Brussels is “home”, a city that has nourished and nurtured me through good times and bad.Pakistan’s transformation is more starkly radical. Sometimes I can hardly recognise my country of birth. There is much still to admire and love — and to yearn for on cold European winter evenings. Family and friends of course. The food and some of the music. The stories being told by old writers and new ones whose books I devour avidly. The artists whose pieces stir long-buried memories.But what I admire most is the resilience of the people. The indomitable spirit of the so-called common man, the “ordinary” people — or the “masses” that the Pakistani politicians refer to in derision — who keep the country humming and running against all odds.You see that unbeatable spirit everywhere, among the people displaced by floods and the deadly fighting between the army and the Taliban, after the tragic deaths of innocent civilians caused by drones, among the thousand Malalas still determined to go to school and the sick people waiting patiently for a doctor to see them in crowded hospitals.But that resilience is also about being optimistic about the future. Going to work every day in packed buses, facing harassment, electricity breakdowns, rampant inflation and corruption with stubbornness and stoicism. And to keep going on and on. I admire Pakistani business leaders and innovators who still invest and believe in the country. The young and the daring entrepreneurs. People who speak up for tolerance, resist the siren song of conformity and compromise.I have seen the same energy and resilience in many other parts of Asia and in Africa. But recently rarely in Europe. The Eurozone crisis has exhausted Europe and joblessness rates are much too high, especially for young people.But speak to young people in China, India and Indonesia and it is clear that they believe in a better future. Visit the countries and it is clear that people’s lives are getting better. Of course there is still inequality, poverty and hunger. But the governments in these countries are trying hard to tackle the multiple challenges they face. Are Pakistani politicians doing the same?So what about my amazement? Well, I suppose it’s about the patience of the people, the willingness to put up with mediocre and often corrupt politicians, war-mongering soldiers, inequality and unfairness and the rampant lack of the rule of law. Elections have not led to real democracy. All that aid money pouring in, has not led to sustainable growth and development.Reading the online version of the front page of Dawn fills me with wonder at how quickly Pakistan’s political landscape has turned into a dark, cruel, repetitive circus. The scowling, angry features of former cricketer Imran Khan, the crazy pronouncements of the Canadian preacher, the ever-chubbier and dishevelled, helpless look of the prime minister and the semi-lucid mutterings of the scion of the Bhutto family.And then there is the apprehension. Despite the disappointment and the disillusionment with a country which I once called home, I suppose there is still some lingering connection, a hope that Pakistan will survive the challenges of the 21st century, stand proud and tall and become an integral part of a rising Asia.It would be nice if Pakistan was in the headlines not because of the antics of the likes of Junaid Jamshed, anti-India rants by the foreign ministry, suicide bombings and hate-Malala crazies as well as the treatment being meted out to Asia Bibi but because the country was breaking new ground, turning a fresh page, opting for sanity rather than madness.After so many years and so many wonderful experiences in Europe and Asia — not to mention the lessons in honesty, sincerity and fearlessness that I learned from my father — I wonder if I will be able to stay silent when I encounter intolerance and religiosity and the blatant disregard for the rights of women, children and minorities that seems to have become part of the national discourse.Across Asia, there is hope and progress. Viewed from Brussels, it certainly looks like this is the Asian Century, a time when Asia is coming of age, growing and developing.Pakistan has a choice: it could join the Asian mainstream and give its people the life and future they deserve or it can opt to be part of a self-destructive Middle East mindset and stay on the periphery of a dynamic and vibrant Asia. I know what I would choose — but do they?
View from Abroad: A new plan to revive 'Granny Europe' (Originally published 29/11/2014 at dawn.com)
Not much gets Europeans excited these days. When challenges emerge — at least on the foreign policy front — the reaction seems to be almost always the same. Problems with Russia? Let’s expand sanctions. Iran? Let’s keep sanctions. Islamic State? Let’s impose sanctions although just how and on whom is not clear.But suddenly, out of the blue, there is a bit of a buzz in the winter air. Europeans woke up on Nov 26 with a new “hero”: European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker who strode on to centre stage to promise peace — or at least jobs — in our time.It was a seminal moment. For Juncker and Europe.The former Luxembourg prime minister is facing allegations that hundreds of multi-national firms were reportedly attracted to Luxembourg in legal tax avoidance schemes. Juncker was prime minister at the time but denies wrongdoing. The new plan has the advantage of taking the almost-scandal off the media radar.For Europe, the plan could be the answer to its dreams of revival. The 28-nation bloc is still struggling to climb out of a long and painful Eurozone crisis. Growth rates are low, unemployment is tragically high, especially among young people. People are downbeat and dejected. Even the German economy is beginning to flag.To top it all, making pessimists even more downbeat, in a speech to the European Parliament last week, Pope Francis likened Europe to a grandmother, “no longer fertile and vibrant”. (I’m not sure he’s talking about the lively grannies I know though…)Anti-granny remarks aside, the pontiff’s remarks do resonate for many. Europe is getting a tad worn out, depressed and haggard. A shot of vitamins is badly needed.Enter Juncker with a magic bullet: a 315 billion euro plan to spend EU money on new infrastructure projects as part of an initiative to revive granny and help Europe grow and thrive again.Only, there is no magic involved. There will be hardly any new money — only €21bn in EU funds as a guarantee to raise private cash in the capital markets — with the rest of the money expected to come from private sources.EU policymakers say they will be looking for funds wherever they can. Chinese investments will be sought out avidly. Middle East investors will be welcome.“I often hear we need so-called fresh money. But we need a fresh start and fresh investment,” Juncker told the European Parliament this week. “We will not betray our children and grandchildren by writing cheques they ultimately will have to pay.”With one eye on developments across the Atlantic, the Commission chief moaned that “While investment is taking off in the US, Europe is lagging behind. Why? Because investors lack confidence, credibility and trust.”The Commission is making up for the lack of solid details on the plan by upping the hype. Juncker says the initiative represents a cornerstone of efforts to revive an ailing economy.Others have called it a historic moment, a make-or-break initiative, a European “New Deal” to get Europeans working again.Certainly, the timing is right. Many European economists have been saying for some time Europe needs to move from the current focus on austerity to programmes which bring back growth.And the best way to do so is to start investing again — especially in infrastructure.The Commission believes it could create up to 1.3 million jobs with investment in broadband, energy networks and transport infrastructure, as well as education and research.National governments could contribute to the fund if they wished and would be asked to come up with a list of projects with “high socio-economic returns” that could kick-off between 2015 and 2017.With a nod to Martin Luther King, Juncker added that he had a dream. He wanted to see schoolchildren walking into a brand new classroom equipped with computers in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, European hospitals saving lives with state of the art medical equipment and French commuters charging electric cars on motorways.The good news is that pro-austerity Germany — the bane of countries like France and Italy which want the EU to start spending itself out of economic stagnation — is in favour of the plan.But EU officials admit the initiative will not fill the gap in the amount of investments needed, especially in infrastructure across Europe. There is also concern that there will not be enough credible projects around for investors to put their money into.The European Investment Bank will be the “prime mover” in delivering seed money for those investments over the next three years. The plan will now be discussed by the 28 EU leaders at the Dec 18-19 summit.Juncker’s shift from austerity and cutting debt to investment is not going to be the botox shot needed to transform “Granny Europe” into a vibrant young woman. But it is a start.
View from Abroad: Europe waits for trade talks but Modi ‘looks East’ (Originally published 22/11/2014 at dawn.com)
These are busy times for Asian leaders — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the busiest.Last week as he criss-crossed Asia, clinching business deals, attracting much-needed investments and building strategic alliances, Modi found time for a quick meeting with the European Union’s outgoing European Council President Herman Van Rompuy to underline that the “EU should take advantage of the new economic environment in India”.The two men apparently agreed that the United Nations should hold an annual international “Yoga Day”.But not much was apparently said on the EU-India free trade agreement that the two sides have been trying to negotiate for the last seven years and which now seems to have run into the ground.EU officials are still hoping that the negotiations will be back on track soon. But the Indian leader is too busy looking elsewhere.As of this autumn, Modi has his nation and the rest of Asia abuzz with his determination to inject new life into India’s “Look East” policy which, following his incessant Asian travels, including recent talks with Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) and other Asian leaders in Myanmar, has morphed into what Modi proudly describes as a “Look East — and Act East” policy.India’s decision to step up its game in Asia is no surprise. As an emerging power with “great power” ambitions, India has no option but to seek a stronger role in a volatile neighbourhood and a region marked by often-changing geopolitical rivalries and alliances. Also, tapping into the region’s dynamic economies is critical for India’s own growth and reform agenda.Certainly, China has the funds needed to help finance India’s infrastructure requirements while Japan and South Korea have the technical experience and expertise. South-east Asian markets are important for Indian investors and exporters. Sustainable peace with Pakistan may still be a long way off but is essential for India’s development and peace and stability in the region.While in Myanmar, Modi made the headlines by pushing his “Make in India” campaign, which aims to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub, by cutting red tape, upgrading infrastructure and making it easier for companies to do business. Modi promised to implement long-delayed plans to boost trade and deepen ties with Asean so that current trade flows could rise from $75 billion today to $100 billion by 2015.In fact, the policy is not new. India has long spoken of developing a “Look East” policy, but has lagged behind China in forging ties with emerging economies in South-East Asia. Tackling China’s influence on Asean and South Asia is still a challenge but India benefits from the fact that Japan, Asean and others in the region are certainly looking to reduce their economic dependence on Beijing by reaching out to Delhi.Indian commentators also underline that Modi used the Asean meeting to articulate for the first time India’s intent to enhance “balance” in the Asia Pacific region, arguing that the word was carefully chosen to reflect India’s shared concerns with other Asian countries about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.Interestingly, Indian defence cooperation is being stepped up with several Indian Ocean states including Sri Lanka and Maldives. India will supply four naval patrol vessels to Hanoi as part of $100 million Line of Credit signed last month. The two countries have also decided to ramp up cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon, civil nuclear energy and space.Given Modi’s focus on the Asia-Pacific, the EU’s new leaders may have to wait a long time before he signals a real interest in upgrading bilateral ties.It is no secret that the EU-India strategic partnership needs a shot in the arm and that trade and investment flows are much too modest. But negotiations for an India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) — the most important issue on the bilateral agenda — have lasted for seven years, with no end in sight. And hopes that New Delhi would put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the elusive deal have not materialised, with differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights continuing to impede progress.The pact could be signed in 2015 — but only if both sides can summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.Modi and the EU’s new leaders face the uphill task of taking the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level, a move that would benefit both sides.In addition to the geopolitical value of such a decision, European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.To inject momentum into the relationship, both sides will need to make an effort. EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will therefore be crucial in signalling a fresh start in relations.
View from Abroad: EU must engage urgently with China (Originally published 15/11/2014 at dawn.com)
China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.
View from Abroad: Asia’s affair with US leaves Europe out in the cold (Originally published 8/11/2014 at dawn.com)
America continues to loom large over the Asia-Pacific region. Whether it’s about trade, politics or security, Asian eyes tend to focus almost solely on Washington. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines feel safer under the US security umbrella. India wants to forge a stronger relationship with Washington. Even China, the region’s most economically vibrant and powerful nation, seeks a special “great power” relationship with America.Hence the focus on the US-led Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit opening in two-day Beijing on Nov 10 and the East Asia Summit from Nov 13-14 in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. A few days later, the spotlight will move to Brisbane, Australia, for the G20 summit.Certainly, the APEC agenda is impressive, with leaders expected to agree to a study on negotiating a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). But Asia’s enduring affair with America leaves only a small space for an Asia-Europe relationship.Significantly, Europeans will be absent from the jamboree in Beijing. The EU has been pressing for entry into the EAS which now also includes the US and Russia but Asians are in no hurry to open the door.Some European countries and the European Commission will, however, participate in the G20 meeting.And yet, there is more to the Asia-Europe relationship than meets the eye. America’s so-called “pivot” to Asia may have grabbed the headlines, but the EU has spent the last three and a half years upping its own game in Asia.The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Milan last month is a case in point. The summit may not have made headlines worldwide but over 50 European and Asian leaders made an array of pledges on boosting growth, continuing economic and financial reform and building stronger Europe-Asia connectivity.Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit — “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” — allowed for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial non-traditional security threats linked to food, water, and energy security.In addition, the meeting brought back much of the informality that marked the first few ASEM summits by including a “retreat” session during which leaders — with only one aide in attendance — were able to have a free-flowing discussion on regional and international issues, including Ebola and the threat posed by the so-called Islamic State.Attendance was exceptionally high, with all key Asian and European leaders — apart from the new Indonesian president and the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers — taking part in the sessions.Even before they meet in Beijing, there was a quick handshake in Milan between estranged neighbours Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Japan’s Shinzo Abe. Russian President Vladimir Putin was in attendance. Also, the EU finally held a long-awaited first-ever summit with Asean leaders. Kazakhstan and Croatia joined ASEM, bringing the total number of ASEM participants to 53.Leaders agreed on an ambitious programme until 2016, the year when ASEM, under Mongolian chairmanship, will celebrate its 20th anniversary. Countries agreed to work in smaller groups or clusters on 16 “tangible cooperation areas” including disaster management, renewable energy, higher education, connectivity and information technology.The challenge is to keep up the momentum generated in Milan. The good news is that ASEM’s resilience has allowed it to survive many upheavals since its launch in Bangkok in 1996. Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important ASEM meetings.Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo ops. The current mood is positive as ASEM seeks a stronger focus on content. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. Closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts is also essential.In the future ASEM needs an even sharper focus on growth and jobs, combating extremism and tackling hard and soft security issues. Women in both Asia and Europe face many societal and economic challenges. Freedom of expression is under attack in both regions. Populist parties and nationalism are becoming a threat to diversity and societal peace in both regions.Finally, ASEM faces the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership. ASEM’s 20th anniversary in 2016 should set the Asia-Europe partnership on a new and more dynamic track — that could perhaps generate the kind of excitement that APEC does.
View from Abroad: Keep watching Jokowi (Originally published 1/11/2014 at dawn.com)
You heard it here first. Two years ago, I predicted in this column (Hope amidst the madness Sept 29, 2012) that Joko Widodo, the then newly-elected governor of Jakarta, was poised to become the next president of Indonesia.On Oct 20, that prediction came true as Widodo — better known as Jokowi — became the leader of the world’s most populous Muslim majority country, fourth largest democracy and an impressive Asian economic power house.In 2012, I remember coming back from a long study tour in Indonesia where practically everyone I met had waxed lyrical about the governor of Jakarta. I was intrigued — and then I was convinced. Jokowi is special.Jokowi and Indonesia matter. They matter to Indonesia’s 250 million citizens, to the wider south-east Asian region — and also to an increasingly chaotic and depressingly violent Muslim world.Much has been written about Indonesia’s new head of state: by all accounts, he is low-key, soft-spoken, dedicated, hard-working and, in a country once ruled by the army and an unsavoury elite, he is “a man truly of the people”.He is therefore an unusual and outstanding political phenomenon. His origins are modest. He was drawn to politics late in life. In a country where family and background counts, he breaks the rules by having no army or political family connections.Comparisons have been made to US President Barack Obama. Both men emerged “out of nowhere” to lead their nations, caught the popular imagination by breaking with the past, reached out to young people and brought a message of change and hope to a tired nation.Look carefully, and the two men even share a striking physical resemblance.As Jokowi takes power, there are concerns that he may also run afoul of an old guard which is reluctant to cede power and privilege to a less skilful and less experienced political newcomer.But there is a difference. Obama heads an economy which is just beginning to sputter to life after years of stagnation. America is desperate to look inwards even as it is pulled screaming and kicking into new military adventures. Public support for Obama is eroding fast.Jokowi, in contrast, has become the leader of one of Asia’s most exciting countries and dynamic economies. Indonesia still faces an array of political, economic and societal challenges — and none of these will disappear under the new president’s watch.Significantly, what happens in Indonesia will not just stay in Indonesia — it will have strong repercussions across the country itself, the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) and a curious Muslim world.Jokowi’s election is hopefully a fatal blow to the old-style politicians like Prabowo Subianto — a former general once married to the daughter of Indonesian dictator Suharto — who was also a candidate for president and refused at first to acknowledge defeat.In a region not noted for its espousal of democratic values and human rights, Indonesia stands out for having successfully ensured the transfer of power from one elected president to another.For many years, Indonesia has engaged in a massive soft power exercise of trying to export democracy to neighbouring nations, including Myanmar. Jakarta has taken the lead in trying to inject some real “people power” into Asean.Finally, Jokowi offers welcome relief in a Muslim world dominated by dictators, monarchs and unsavoury politicians.Still, it won’t be easy. Jokowi may have claimed the presidency, but he does not have a majority in parliament which last month controversially blocked the direct election of governors, mayors and district chiefs, a move which could prevent the rise of figures outside the political establishment, like Jokowi. The law is expected to be repealed — but it signals the tough political battle ahead for the new president.It’s been a good few years for the Indonesian economy — but growth is slowing down as the commodity boom wanes and exports decline. The government is under pressure to cut its generous fuel subsidies, a move which could spark civil unrest.Indonesia has not suffered a major terrorist strike since 2009 when a pair of luxury Jakarta hotels were targeted by suicide bombers but its brand of moderate and tolerant Islam is under threat from extremist forces. The country is trying hard to fight the spread of Wahabi Islam. Fighting corruption remains a challenge across the country.Most significantly, the new president faces the challenge of distancing himself from Megawati Sukarnoputri, a one-time president of the Indonesia and the daughter of the country’s first post-independence president, Sukarno.As chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which put up Jokowi as presidential candidate, Megawati still wields enormous influence and has used it to determine the members of the new president’s cabinet.Indonesian newspapers warn that the new government is the result of compromises between Jokowi and Megawati and that contrary to expectations that the new president would appoint a team of technocrats, at least 21 ministers in the 34-member cabinet are either representatives of political parties or have links to political figures.Most damagingly, is the inclusion of Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter as a coordinating minister for human resources development and culture.“We can only imagine that the shoe is too big for her,” warned the Jakarta Post.“We are disappointed because we had high expectations,” the newspaper warned. However, there is praise for the appointment of eight female ministers, including the country’s first-ever woman foreign minister, Retno Marsudi.As I said in an earlier column, the world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21st century power. And they are watching Jokowi.
View from Abroad: A 21st century Silk Road (Originally published 25/10/2014 at dawn.com)
I have been in China for five days and my brain is on fire. Perceptions, discussions, confrontations crowd my mind, jostling for space, demanding attention. My Chinese colleagues have so much to tell me about their country’s new priorities and they want to know so much about the future of Europe. We discuss. We argue.
The debates go on and on at the round-table meeting in Changsha in Hunan province that we are attending. As day turns into night, the debates not only dominate my waking hours, they enter my dreams.Europe and China have much to talk about. We are so different and yet we have much in common. There is the shared challenge of encouraging sustainable growth, tackling problems in our respective neighbourhoods, dealing with an ageing population, making sure we eliminate inequalities.But much also separates us. Europe believes in democracy, elections and human rights. China wants western countries to stop pontificating and giving Beijing lessons on democracy. The focus should be on governance, not on elections and other the rituals of democracy, one Chinese academic tells us.“We have to treat each other equally ... the West should stop looking down on us,” another Chinese colleague insists at the round-table discussion between European and Chinese think tanks.Indeed, much has changed — and is changing — in Beijing. President Xi Jinping has embarked on an unprecedented national reform drive, demanding an end to corruption, stronger implementation of the rule of law, a rebalancing of the economy from investments and exports to domestic consumption.And for the last year, President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang have been promoting the ambitious idea of a Silk Road which would connect China to Europe, weaving its way across Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe on the one hand while also building connections through a maritime route which would include the Maldives and Sri Lanka and many South-East Asian states.Full disclosure: I confess that I am completely fascinated, intrigued by the initiative. As a young girl growing up in Pakistan, I spent hours reading of the adventures of the intrepid men and women who plyed the Silk Road, connecting towns, industries and people.Exotic looking Chinese traders, with their bundles of silk, satins and brocades, made their way to Islamabad, persuading my mother and aunts to buy their goods. I watched from the sidelines, amused by the good-natured bargaining, the chuckles resulting in mutually satisfactory transactions.Years later, I went up the Silk Road — or rather the silk track — to Hunza and Gilgit and felt my heart almost break at the exquisite beauty of the landscape. Many hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani workers died while building the road in such a hostile land. Their sacrifice was enormous, their memories preserved in plaques along the route.That was then. The Road was about romance and adventure. Today it’s about commerce. China’s new concept of the Silk Road has little to do with romance — and a lot to do with business.Still it is a visionary idea which is getting much attention in Asia and Europe. And so it should. As they did when they came out with their ‘China Dream’ concept a year or so ago, the ‘Silk Road’ initiative is a work in progress.Beijing has yet to articulate its ambitions in detail. “We are not yet talking about a strategy,” says a Chinese colleague.Clearly, China wants to use the Road to increase its trade relations with countries along the route. Beijing is interested in Central Asia’s energy resources. It wants to counterbalance Russia’s political influence in the region.Also, the Silk Road provides a strong counter move to America’s much-touted ‘pivot’ to Asia and to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement that the US wants to negotiate with countries in the region but without China.As I listen to the discussion, I am convinced that this is an idea whose time has come — again. China has the political clout to make it happen. And it has the money to finance many of the projects.Still, it won’t be easy. The 21st century Silk Road will not only allow goods to be trade freely across borders, it could also facilitate the cross-frontier movement of drugs, arms and terrorists.As such, the proposal needs to be developed with care and caution.As I prepare to leave Changsha, my head is still spinning with new information and ideas. I dream of ancient bazaars and long, winding roads through mountains and plains. The Silk Road as envisioned by Beijing may be based on national self interest and, given the challenges, may never see the light of day.But the vision of an interconnected world it articulates is worth preserving — and developing.
View from Abroad: Western nightmares are just bad dreams (Originally published 19/10/2014 at dawn.com)
It's the stuff of Western nightmares: imagine if, one day, a strong China and a weak but assertive Russia “gang up” against the United States and Europe, winning more friends and allies and imposing their writ on the rest of the world?The recent high profile meetings between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been watched carefully — and fretfully — in all Western capitals with uneasy policymakers seeking to understand if this is just a passing show of affection or if the two countries are planning to build a more solid partnership.Beijing has made clear that it has no intention of being part of any geopolitical power play being hatched by Moscow. China’s interests are global. Indeed before he met Putin, Li was in Germany striking two billion euro worth of business deals. He then headed to Italy for more headline-grabbing commercial overtures.Beijing’s standard line is that it has no allies, only friends. That’s not how Russia views the world. Russia in contrast is under Western sanctions. The EU is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas while the Nato military alliance talks menacingly about Russian actions in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.Some warn it is the beginning of a second Cold War. Clearly, it isn’t. The multipolar world today is a very different place from what it was in the Cold War years.Still, some thing is afoot. The Russians are working overtime to woo the Chinese. Beijing is clearly interested in accessing more Russian oil and gas, providing Moscow with new markets as Europe diversifies away from Russian energy. Some 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding are reported to be signed during Li’s visit to Moscow, including in areas related to high-speed transit and finance. China is also eager to supply Russia with fruit and vegetables, products that Moscow is no longer importing from Europe.Western attention is focused on Russian-Chinese cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which some in the West view as a potential competitor for Nato. And the recent decision to launch the BRICS bank is seen as a joint challenge by Russia and China to the post-war liberal order and the supremacy of the Bretton Woods institutions.Both China and Russia are often on the same side on tackling global flashpoints, eschewing military intervention unless sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.There’s no doubt, however, that while it may want to stay friends and do business with Moscow, China has no interest in being seen as Russia’s best friend. As friendships go, in fact, the focus in many envious Western capitals is on the ‘special relationship’ between China and Germany.While in Berlin, Li and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed deals worth approximately US$18.1 billion, covering cooperation in areas including agriculture, automotive, telecom, healthcare and education.Li requested that Germany help to relax the EU’s high-tech export restrictions to China and continue expanding bilateral trade and investment. He further stated that the two countries should continue working together on feasibility studies concerning the proposed China-EU Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed guidelines covering 110 cooperative agreements over the next five to 10 years.At the Hamburg Summit organised by Germany’s top industrialists that was attended by Premier Li the message was clear: China is not only the the biggest market for German companies, it is also a growing one. China’s huge national reform programme agenda, opens up exciting new export and investment opportunities for German — and other European — companies. Discussions focused on China’s massive urbanisation needs which can be met by European companies.Chinese investments into Germany and the EU are soaring. Significantly, unlike many other countries, China has shown a strong interest in the future course of Asem, the Asia Europe Meeting forum which is often criticised for being a mere talk shop.At the Asem summit in Milan last week, Li waxed lyrical about Asem’s role in improving connectivity between Asia and Europe, underlining his vision of building a Silk Road between Asia.Li knows he is on a winning streak. As the Financial Times newspaper reported recently, Chinese investors are surging into the EU.In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over 6.1bn euro — less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly 27bn euro, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.Not surprisingly, the EU and China are in the process of negotiating a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting each others’ investments but also ensuring better marker access.China is clearly not about to ditch Russia. But Beijing’s focus is on the growing markets of Europe. Western policymakers can sleep easy. For many nights.
View from Abroad: Europeans challenge Germany on austerity (Originally published 11/10/2014 at dawn.com)
With apologies to Jane Austen, it’s (also) a truth universally acknowledged that Germany is Europe’s undisputed leader. Its powerful economy, large population, mostly stable politics and mostly responsible politicians assure that Berlin looms large over the European Union landscape.Nothing happens in the EU without Germany’s blessing. For years that was a good thing. It isn’t any longer.Whisper it softly but Germany’s EU partners are getting a little fed up with Berlin’s writ. This is especially the case when it comes to agreement on how best to bring economic growth back into the flagging 28 EU economies.Germany’s focus on austerity is coming under harsh criticism — some of it veiled, some of it open — for jeopardising Europe’s economic recovery.Disaffection with Germany is spreading beyond economics. EU insiders complain in private at Berlin’s growing influence in key EU institutions, its ability to grab some very senior EU jobs for its nationals or close friends and its newly-found assertiveness in areas such as foreign and security policy.Europeans liked a Germany that always said “yes”, kept trying to atone for its role in the two World Wars and opened its wallet whenever others in the EU needed help.Linked up with former adversary France, Germany was the “locomotive” that kept the EU moving up and forward, through economic and monetary, the negotiation and implementation of different constitutional treaties and kept the flame burning on issues like further European integration.It’s different now. Germany is doing all that and more. And its EU partners like it less and less.What went wrong? In fact, the economy. Ever since the Eurozone crisis reared its ugly head, Germany as the bloc’s healthiest economy, has been calling the shots, insisting that governments across the bloc must tighten their belts, cut spending and talk and walk austerity.The tide is changing, however. Across Europe, national leaders, policymakers and economists are starting to challenge Germany’s insistence on budget austerity as a precondition to healthy growth.France is in, what some observers refer to as, an “open revolt” against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s continued demands for deficit reduction in the face of slowing growth.Italy has warned against too rigidly following Germany’s preferred approach. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and IMF head Christine Lagarde are also pushing for Germany to loosen up.Critics of austerity say that more government spending would increase demand for goods and services in Europe and help avert a dangerous fall into deflation, a downward spiral in wages and prices that can cripple an economy for years.Proponents of austerity, which include the Dutch, Austrians and Scandinavians and the three Baltic states, say that governments that fail to get their budget deficits and accumulated debt under control risk losing the ability to borrow at affordable rates in the bond markets and sowing the seeds of financial instability.The debate is unusually “philosophical”, not just economic, say observers. Warning against an escalation of mutual recriminations, the respected former Italian prime minister Mario Monti said the divergences of policy revealed divergences of “national cultures”.Matteo Renzi, the current Italian Premier, has said more bluntly that Berlin has no right to lecture its partners, urging Berlin — and the European Commission which now vets national budgets — to show more understanding for countries with no growth and high unemployment.French Prime Minister Manuel Vall, meanwhile, has unveiled a “no-austerity budget” designed to cut the deficit more slowly than austerity advocates would like.Monti has especially urged the EU (and Berlin) to consider more favourable treatment for public investments within existing rules.Critics of Germany point out that while Berlin is keeping the eurozone in fiscal chains, the United States has loosened the reins — and that thanks to fiscal stimulus, the American economy is starting to grow.At least for the moment, Berlin appears unwilling to deviate from its plan. But change may be around the corner. After all, while she is still very popular in her ninth year in power, Merkel is also under fire at home.In a new book, The Germany Illusion, one of the country’s leading economists, Marcel Fratzscher, takes the government to task for declining to invest in infrastructure and failing to encourage private investment or foster a modern service sector that would yield better pay and thus fuel higher consumer spending.Perhaps, Germany may finally listen. Latest forecasts spotlight a slowdown in the German economy, with economists underlining that the last thing the faltering European economy needs is a sudden downturn in Germany.But others argue that a bout of German weakness may be precisely what is required to convince Merkel to loosen the fiscal reins at home and provide Europe with a dose of stimulus that struggling states like France and Italy have long been seeking.If she does that, Europeans may once again rediscover their earlier respect for Merkel. Unlike the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Merkel, as the ‘Iron Lady’ in charge of the future of both Germany and Europe, should not be afraid of “turning”.
View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)
The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.
APPOINTMENT OF FIRST EU ENVOY TO ASEAN WILL BOOST TIES (Originally published 25/09/14)
The European Union’s decision to appoint a special ambassador accredited to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a welcome and long-awaited step forward in the EU’s relations with one of the world’s most dynamic and rapidly-growing regions.As a statement by the European External Action Service, the EU’s “foreign ministry”, underlined, the “important decision” reflects Europe’s growing engagement with ASEAN and an ambition to upgrade the existing partnership with the Southeast Asian grouping to a strategic one.The move also underscores the hard work put in by ASEAN members in drawing EU attention to the region over the last four years. Friends of Europe has been a strong advocate of closer and stronger EU-ASEAN relations.The new EU envoy could make an important contribution to injecting some much-needed momentum into what – until four years ago – was still a lacklustre and uninspiring relationship.Good progress has been made in recent years. However, building a solid, sustainable and strategic EU-ASEAN relationship will remain a challenge, demanding a strong effort by both regions. Certainly both sides see an interest in forging closer ties. Bilateral EU-ASEAN trade and investment flows are booming. Europe and ASEAN need each other’s’ markets to grow and thrive.But in addition to the global challenges they need to tackle, Asian and European countries face difficult tasks both at home and in their respective regions. Still grappling with slowing economic growth and unacceptably-high youth unemployment rates, Europe’s urgent foreign policy priority is to thrash out a new “beyond sanctions” strategy for dealing with an increasingly volatile and assertive Russia.European countries are also under pressure to join America’s campaign to “destroy and degrade” the so-called “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria.ASEAN states, meanwhile, are struggling to meet their goal of forging a border-free single ASEAN market by end-2015. On the foreign policy front, they are engaged in a delicate balancing act to maintain good relations with the three Asian behemoths: China, Japan and India.Still the omens are good. Coming only a few weeks before the mega Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan on October 16, the EU announcement on the special envoy to ASEAN sends a strong and reassuring message of continuing EU engagement with Asia in the years ahead.ASEM will bring together 53 Asian (including ASEAN) and European partners for a two day summit focusing on the key security, economic and political challenges facing both regions.Significantly, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Japan’s Shinzo Abe and key ASEAN leaders will be attending the meeting as will Italian Premier Matteo Renzi and the EU’s top officials, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso. For both men it will be the last ASEM gathering before the change of EU leadership in November.Asian and European business leaders, parliamentarians, academics and journalists as well as civil society actors will also be gathering in Milan around the same time in separate but inter-connected fora.In another sign that Europe intends to stay engaged with Asian states despite the fires burning in its neighbourhood, the incoming EU foreign policy chief, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, has gone out of her way in recent weeks to highlight Europe’s sustained interest in Asia, including ASEAN.Mogherini’s focus on Asia is important and reassuring. Her predecessor Catherine Ashton was roundly criticised by ASEAN governments for paying only sporadic and cursory attention to their region. She managed to get relations back on track – but it was touch and go at moments.Mogherini is expected to be more attentive. And under the new structures being designed by incoming European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU foreign policy chief will be working in close cooperation with her colleagues who deal with trade, development aid, humanitarian affairs and climate change to forge a coherent conversation with Asia. Closer coordination with EU capitals is also expected.This is good news. Both the EU and ASEAN have worked hard over the last four years - in Brussels and in the different European and Southeast Asian capitals - to make their relationship more credible and relevant.It’s often been long and laborious. Human rights issues as well as relations with the former military junta in Myanmar cast a dark, unpleasant shadow over relations even as trade and investment flows continued to expand.Political reforms in Myanmar as well as ASEAN’s economic dynamism and newfound interest in developing an impressive - albeit still modest - human rights agenda, have helped to turn the relationship around.Looking ahead, for the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal. The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others. ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.The appointment of the new EU envoy to ASEAN could help unlock the EU membership of EAS in the coming years. ASEAN is also looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner” and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.At the same time, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. The outgoing EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. It’s still not clear if his successor Cecilia Malmstrom will be equally interested in such a deal.Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Significantly, the EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October. The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity. The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.A conversation on maritime security has also been initiated.These and other EU-ASEAN ventures should expand and deepen once the new – and yet to be named - EU envoy to the grouping begins working in Jakarta. Europe and ASEAN have come a long way in making their partnership more relevant in a rapidly-changing world. Both sides must maintain the momentum despite domestic and regional distractions.