EU frets as ‘Populist International’ moves fast to win votes

Legend has it that the European Union thrives on crisis and shows its true colours — its strength and resilience — when life gets tough. Not this time.

As predicted in this column two weeks ago, Donald Trump’s election victory has dealt the EU a body blow. All 28 EU governments — and yes the EU still has 28 members until Britain actually goes out the door at a yet-undecided date — are still reeling from the surprise election result.

To be fair, the bloc has a lot on his hands. Brexit and the refugee crisis continue to weigh heavy. Relations with Russia and Turkey are at an all-time low. And populists, both in government and in opposition, stalk the land.

And now, their bedrock, the “transatlantic relationship” looks like it is in tatters.

As they bade a teary-eyed farewell to President Barack Obama last week, EU leaders had much to worry about.

First, Trump is certainly unlikely to be a pro-European president. He does not like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), is sceptical of Nato and if Moscow is to be believed has promised to normalise relations with Russia.

Second, all this would be manageable if EU countries were able to put aside their differences and forge a united stance vis-a-vis Washington.

Alas. Hopes of a united front to deal with Trump have been dashed. A hastily scheduled working dinner of EU foreign ministers called by the German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier and EU special representative for foreign and security policy Federica Mogherini last week was boycotted by Britain and France.

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who once said he was afraid of running into Trump while in the US, decided he was tired of the EU’s “whinge-orama” over Trump’s election victory. France said it had urgent business to attend to at home.

Some EU officials like Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have warned that Trump must get up to speed on how Europe works in order to avoid “two years of wasted time” when he assumes his new role.

“Mr Trump, during his campaign, said that Belgium was a village somewhere in Europe,” Juncker said in his frank remarks to students in Luxembourg, adding: “We must teach the president-elect what Europe is and how it works.”

Juncker said that Trump had called Nato into question, which could have “harmful consequences” because it is the model of Europe’s defence.

The US president-elect had also “taken a view of refugees and non-white Americans that does not reflect European convictions and feelings”, he added.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has lectured Trump on “shared values” and hinted relations depended on the future American president’s respect for “democracy, freedom, respect for the right and dignity of every individual, irrespective of origin, colour, religion, sex, sexual orientation or political attitude”.

No surprise then that Obama’s farewell visit to several EU countries, including Germany, last week turned into a long and painful goodbye.

Emotions were running specially high in Berlin where Obama and Merkel praised each other as “outstanding partners”, with the US president expressing hopes that Trump would stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin when he deviates from US “values and international norms”.

In a joint op-ed, Obama and Merkel defended aid for refugees “because we know it is our treatment of those most vulnerable that determines the true strength of our values”. They hailed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation — from which Trump has threatened to pull back — as a cornerstone of peace.

Still, even Merkel knows it’s time to move on. As the de facto leader of the EU, the German chancellor has a lot on her plate. The next few months are going to be extremely difficult for Berlin and Brussels.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has vowed to resign if he loses a referendum on constitutional reform on December 4, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else.

Meanwhile in Austria, far-right Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer and former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen will run again on Dec 4 after Austria’s Constitutional Court annulled the results of May’s presidential vote and called for a rerun.

The court said the May election, in which Van der Bellen narrowly beat Hofer, would have to be repeated after the discovery of irregularities in vote counting across several districts.

Although the presidency is a largely symbolic role in Austria, the Freedom Party’s potential success would herald a major victory for Europe’s far right parties ahead of elections next year in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

The fear in Europe is that far-right populists Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen will give mainstream parties a run for their month in both the Netherlands and France.

Ominously, Breitbart, the so-called alt-right news organisation that is often described as “misogynist, racist and xenophobic”, is reportedly planning to expand to Europe ahead of the crucial elections next year.

Breitbart is believed to have been instrumental in helping Trump win the elections. Steve Bannon, executive chairman of the organisation, has been appointed senior counsellor and chief strategist for Trump.

Meanwhile, Aaron Banks, the millionaire who helped fund the Brexit campaign in the UK, has also promised to take his campaign to France ahead of the elections.

Members of “Populist International” are moving fast to gain votes while EU leaders wring their hands in despair.

In a crazy world, we need to daydream

So here I am surrounded by evil, wickedness and hate, the world going mad all at once and all I can think of is this: if only Freddie Mercury and Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan had lived long enough to sing together.

Call it escapism. Call it cracking under pressure, the demands of an exhausted mind demanding some respite, a moment of rest in an angry vicious world. There’s just so much a person can take.

The rest of the world is going crazy over Pokemon Go! But as I read, hear and watch the loonies take over the asylum, the mad men raging and ranting, I’ve started daydreaming. And often as the mind wanders, I wish Freddie and Nusrat could have come together to sing and ease our pain.

What a concert that would have been, the meeting of two musical titans, sublime singers whose voices would have touched our souls in so many different unexplained ways, reaching places no one else could reach. Not John Lennon, not Elvis, not even Prince. Any yes, not even Amjad Sabri.

I can imagine their voices merging and mingling, Freddie’s haunting vocals soaring higher and higher and then dipping low — and then, slowly but steadily, Nusrat Fateh Ali adding his magical, spiritual sweetness to the duet. I can hear them now, singing a mixture of ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ and ‘Dam Mast Qalandar’.

If only. My fantasy doesn’t last long. Both men are dead, their message of love and tolerance buried with them. So are Sabri, Lennon and others.

Instead of sweet music, we are doomed to listen to Donald Trump’s nasty rants. The man many once shrugged off as a freak show is now likely to be the next president of the United States. Interestingly, he is best friends with Vladimir Putin, the other tough guy on the block.

I’m sure it won’t be too long before both are bonding with that other angry middle-aged strongman, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, having escaped a military coup is now busy rounding up and punishing all and sundry. Oh yes, and there is talk of reinstating the death penalty.

Here in Europe, there are mad men aplenty too. Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban has described the arrival of asylum seekers in Europe as “a poison”, saying his country did not want or need “a single migrant”.

Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch far right Freedom Party told the Republican Party Convention in Cleveland that he is set to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands. “I don’t want more Muslims in the Netherlands…and I am proud to say that,” he told a cheering crowd of Americans.

To much applause, Britain’s new Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson lied and misled his way during the Brexit campaign that he headed. Nigel Farage, the xenophobic leader of the UK Independence Party has promised to help anti-EU protesters in France and other countries. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far right has become even more popular in the wake of recent terrorist attacks.

But there is hope yet. The world is not completely dark and dirty — at least not yet.

At their convention in Philadelphia, the Democrats called on Americans to reject what they called Trump’s politics of fear and division. It’s still not clear, however, if the message of hope and optimism offered by US President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton can successfully counter Trump’s toxic rhetoric.

The divisions in society run deep — and not only in the US. Europe too is deeply divided between those who live in a permanent state of apoplexy over their inability to cope with a rapidly changing world and those who are ready to go with the flow.

For the last few years, like many others, I have been silently thanking the universe for Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor whose ability to show grace under pressure makes her the only true leader in a very messy and chaotic Europe.

Just recently, Merkel delivered a staunch defence of her open-door policy towards refugees, insisting she feels no guilt over a series of violent attacks in Germany and was right to allow hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees to arrive last summer.

“A rejection of the humanitarian stance we took could have led to even worse consequences,” the German chancellor said. She repeated her wir schaffen das (we can manage it) mantra delivered last summer at the peak of the refugee crisis, adding: “We can manage our historic task — and this is a historic test in times of globalisation — just as we’ve managed so much already, we can manage it…Germany is a strong country.”

Interestingly, Merkel’s popularity remains high. In contrast, despite his hard-line response to terrorism and the extension of the national state of emergency, French President Francois Hollande remains intensely unpopular.

Go figure. Just when you think 2016 can’t get any worse, there is another terrorist attack and more innocent and gentle souls are killed.

As Freddie sang all those years ago: ‘this world could be heaven’. Sadly, tragically, it is not.

View from abroad : Transatlantic alliance: fact and fiction (Originally published 21/03/2015 at dawn.com)

So here’s the fiction: America and Europe stand united against the “rest of the world”. The transatlantic alliance is strong, solid and a bulwark against the machinations of China and the world’s other emerging nations.Washington and Brussels are like-minded, like-thinking entities which see eye to eye on almost everything. Together, they can still rule the world.Perhaps in the 20th century — but no longer. Here are the facts: the world has changed from unipolar to multi-polar or even “no-polar”. For all its military might, the US no longer rules the world. For proof, look no further than the way Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is obstructing progress on US-Iran nuclear talks.And here are some more facts: America and the EU are divided over the death penalty, Guantanamo Bay, illegal renditions, the use of torture and the revelations of spying by the National Security Agency as revealed by Edward Snowden.They disagree over how to deal with Russia and Ukraine. And while America sees China mainly as a strategic competitor, Europe is happy to work with Beijing on tackling many 21st century challenges.Certainly, there are some points of convergence. Significantly, negotiations are underway on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), seen by many as the last attempt by a declining West to impose its economic rule-making model on a watching world.But even as they seek agreement on TTIP, many European states are posing the BIGGEST challenge to the US by deciding to join the Chinese-led, Chinese-inspired $50 billion Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which Washington continues to firmly oppose.So far, EU members Britain, France, Germany and Italy have said they want to be founding members of the AIIB. But other Europeans will undoubtedly join their ranks.The story is not just about Washington vs Beijing; it’s about a changing world order, the shift of power from west to east, the rise of China and its challenge to years of US domination.It’s about the need to change and reform post-World War II multilateral institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.And it’s about a world desperately in need of cash, especially for badly-needed infrastructure projects — and a rising China which has more money than it can handle.To be fair, US Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew has said that the US was not opposed to the creation of the AIIB. “There are obviously vast needs in Asia and many parts of the world for infrastructure investment,” he told a Congressional hearing on the status of the international financial system.The US concern, he said, has always been whether such an international investment bank will adhere to the high standards such as in protecting workers’ rights, the environment and dealing properly with corruption issues.The bank, proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013 during a visit to Indonesia, is expected to be launched formally by the end of this year.All Asian countries can apply to become founding members until March 31.Chinese experts say they are looking less for European financial support and more for Europe’s management experience to share with the AIIB.France, Germany and Italy announced they would join the Bank after Britain said it was doing so last week. Australia, a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific region which had come under pressure from Washington to stay out of the new bank, has also said that it will now rethink that position. South Korea is also expected to join.Other European countries are expected to follow the bigger EU nations’ lead. And why not? Like most Asian countries, Europeans are looking to invest in new infrastructure to raise levels of connectivity across the continent.Policymakers are hoping that China will be an important contributor to the 300 billion dollar infrastructure fund announced earlier this year by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.Britain hopes to establish itself as the number one destination for Chinese investment. China is also a strong investor in Germany and in France.Analysts point out that the US has misplayed its hands and that the best way to ensure that China doesn’t dominate the AIIB is to fill it with other powers. This, they argue would result in much stricter governance rules and safeguards.The AIIB is not the only regional project China has proposed that Washington will have to grapple with. Beijing’s “one belt, one road” Silk Road projects are moving rapidly from theoretical to actual, much to the dismay of America and some European states.The Asian Development Bank has estimated Asia’s infrastructure needs at $750 billion a year, far beyond the ADB’s capacity. With connectivity the buzzword across the region, the new Bank is expected to be very busy pumping money into major infrastructure projects.China has also been quick to respond to huge and acute infrastructure needs in the developing world, in contrast with the lengthy project processes required by other lenders.In response to the Chinese initiatives, the Japanese government has also said it wants to focus on infrastructure projects in developing countries.World leaders at the G20 Summit in Brisbane in 2014 recognised infrastructure demand in the developing world as a new source of global growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.The transatlantic trade deal may see the light of the day by end-2015 — even though negotiations are tough and public resistance to the pact is high. But even if they do clinch an agreement on trade, America and Europe will not always share a similar vision of life in a rapidly-changing 21st century.

View From Abroad: Europe needs lucid advice on diversity, not US grandstanding (Originally published 21/02/2015 at dawn.com)

Pity embattled European Union leaders. Not only are they grappling with tough-guy Russian President Vladimir Putin, striving to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire in Ukraine while also preventing Greece from exiting the eurozone, they now also have the United States — and Israel — grandstanding and haranguing them on how to reduce racism and make Europe a better and more inclusive place.Europe certainly needs advice on dealing with immigrant communities and the rise in anti-Semitism across the bloc is cause for great concern. But reading the barrage of criticism levelled at European leaders over the last few days I could not help thinking about people in glasshouses not throwing stones at others.Neither the US nor Israel is in a position to give Europe lessons on dealing with minority communities. Neither, by the way, are any Muslim-majority countries whose track record on dealing with minority populations is quite simply abysmal.True, Europe needs to engage in some deep soul-searching on just what kind of a society and future it wants: one in which “foreigners” are treated with contempt, where asylum seekers are allowed to drown as they head for European shores, where the Far Right appears to speak for all of Europe or a more open, diverse and multicultural/religious/ethnic place where all people feel at home.What Europe needs therefore are thoughtful, well-reasoned and lucid advice and counsel on developing new pro-minority policies, ensuring better integration and combating the toxic rhetoric of xenophobic Far Right parties, which currently dominate Europe’s societal and political discourse.Such advice can come from all sources. But make no mistake: this is a global challenge, not just a European one. Such a debate is necessary in most countries, including the US and Israel — and all Muslim ones. When it comes to accepting difference and diversity, all countries are sinners.Discriminatory treatment is not just reserved for those who practise a different religion, come from a different ethnic group or just simply look different but also for those with physical disabilities, different political ideas, a different sexual orientation or just who don’t “fit in”. In some countries, just being a woman means being treated as an inferior being.“Good” countries are aware of the challenges and hammer out — and implement — laws which ban such discriminatory treatment. They develop an inclusive narrative and make sure that criminals are brought to justice. They strive to make everyone feel at home.“Bad” countries do the opposite. They may be aware of the problem but often pretend that their nation is perfect. They don’t stand up for the victims of racism/discrimination. There is no focus on accountability or securing justice.Yes, that is an over-simplification. But so is the advice that Europe has received recently. US presidential hopeful Jeb Bush recently told foreign policy experts that America under his rule would welcome immigrants. Unlike Europe, Bush said that “we come in 34 different flavours” and “we have the potential to be young and dynamic again”.US Vice President Joe Biden told last week’s three-day White House summit on countering violent extremism that Europe was vulnerable to radicalised attacks because immigrants in the EU are less integrated into the local societies compared with the US. “I’m not suggesting ... that I think America has all the answers here. We just have a lot more experience,” Biden said and stressed that “inclusion counts”.Bush and Biden are right in some aspects: America could some years ago claim to be less hysterical about Islam than Europe. But the Tea Party and Fox News are proof that the anti-Muslim diatribes are now the same on both sides of the Atlantic. That’s no surprise given the transatlantic cross-fertilisation of “ideas” on Islam-bashing under way.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meanwhile has made a much-publicised call for European Jews to move to Israel after recent terrorist killings in Denmark. Significantly, his views are prompting a backlash from not only European leaders but Jews themselves. Commentators argue that for many Jews, such remarks ignore, and even insult, the acceptance they feel in the countries where they and their families have often lived for generations.“We are a little confused by this call, which is basically like a call to surrender to terror,” said Arie Zuckerman, senior executive at the Eur­o­pean Jewish Congress. “It may send a wrong message to the lea­ders of Europe.” According to Rabbi Menachem Margolin, “to come out with this kind of statement after each attack is unacceptable.”Not surprisingly many European Muslims feel similarly irritated when leaders from Muslim countries try and give advice to them.Better advice has come from Francois Crepeau, a UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, who has said that the EU needs to change its migrant policy as it doesn’t answer to the problems which are emerging. “A common narrative celebrating mobility and diversity, recognising real labour market needs, as well as the needs of migrants, based on human rights guarantees and access to justice, must be developed,” said Crépeau.The UN Rapporteur is right. European leaders must act urgently to stop the rise in Islamophobia and build more inclusive societies. They should stop pandering to the Far Right. More humane policies are needed towards the endless waves of asylum seekers stuck in Lampedusa and other centres. Above all, attitudes to change.Proof that this can happen is provided by the new Greek government led by Alexis Tsipras. Greece has seen a surge in racist assaults in recent years, with the Golden Dawn fascist party intimidating immigrants and human rights advocates.The new government has pledged to close down detention centres for illegal immigrants that have long been criticised by rights groups as inhuman.Tasia Christodoulopoulou, a veteran human rights attorney who is now Greece’s first-ever minister for immigration, has said Athens has to move quickly to improve the poor reputation it has acquired handling those fleeing poverty and deprivation.Tsipras may be getting flak from other European leaders when it comes to his eurozone politics. But his EU partners could learn a thing or two about trying to build a better society from Greece.

View From Abroad: European lessons for Asian security (Originally published 14/02/2015 at dawn.com)

The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.

Shada Islam quoted in 'Europe Muted on CIA Torture Report Amid Islamic State Conflict' (The Washington Post with Bloomberg 10/12/2014)

European governments gave a muted response to a U.S. report on Central Intelligence Agency torture, declining the opportunity to criticize the Obama administration amid concerns over current security threats.

While China accused the U.S. of hypocrisy, the European Union and the U.K. moderated their response to the findings of the report by Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

“There’s a deep reluctance to open old wounds just as we face the challenge of Islamic State and parts of the Middle East go up in flames,” Shada Islam, Director of Policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said in a phone interview. “Many European governments were complicit or at least turned a blind eye to what the CIA was doing.”

The report, which focused on the agency’s “enhanced interrogation techniques” in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, revealed that U.S.-held terrorism suspects received more brutal treatment than previously known.

For the full article, visit http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NGBYTJ6K50YD01-0BB8G4EV8H8HOEQDREHOMQHNBP

View from Abroad: Western nightmares are just bad dreams (Originally published 19/10/2014 at dawn.com)

It's the stuff of Western nightmares: imagine if, one day, a strong China and a weak but assertive Russia “gang up” against the United States and Europe, winning more friends and allies and imposing their writ on the rest of the world?The recent high profile meetings between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been watched carefully — and fretfully — in all Western capitals with uneasy policymakers seeking to understand if this is just a passing show of affection or if the two countries are planning to build a more solid partnership.Beijing has made clear that it has no intention of being part of any geopolitical power play being hatched by Moscow. China’s interests are global. Indeed before he met Putin, Li was in Germany striking two billion euro worth of business deals. He then headed to Italy for more headline-grabbing commercial overtures.Beijing’s standard line is that it has no allies, only friends. That’s not how Russia views the world. Russia in contrast is under Western sanctions. The EU is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas while the Nato military alliance talks menacingly about Russian actions in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.Some warn it is the beginning of a second Cold War. Clearly, it isn’t. The multipolar world today is a very different place from what it was in the Cold War years.Still, some thing is afoot. The Russians are working overtime to woo the Chinese. Beijing is clearly interested in accessing more Russian oil and gas, providing Moscow with new markets as Europe diversifies away from Russian energy. Some 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding are reported to be signed during Li’s visit to Moscow, including in areas related to high-speed transit and finance. China is also eager to supply Russia with fruit and vegetables, products that Moscow is no longer importing from Europe.Western attention is focused on Russian-Chinese cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which some in the West view as a potential competitor for Nato. And the recent decision to launch the BRICS bank is seen as a joint challenge by Russia and China to the post-war liberal order and the supremacy of the Bretton Woods institutions.Both China and Russia are often on the same side on tackling global flashpoints, eschewing military intervention unless sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.There’s no doubt, however, that while it may want to stay friends and do business with Moscow, China has no interest in being seen as Russia’s best friend. As friendships go, in fact, the focus in many envious Western capitals is on the ‘special relationship’ between China and Germany.While in Berlin, Li and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed deals worth approximately US$18.1 billion, covering cooperation in areas including agriculture, automotive, telecom, healthcare and education.Li requested that Germany help to relax the EU’s high-tech export restrictions to China and continue expanding bilateral trade and investment. He further stated that the two countries should continue working together on feasibility studies concerning the proposed China-EU Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed guidelines covering 110 cooperative agreements over the next five to 10 years.At the Hamburg Summit organised by Germany’s top industrialists that was attended by Premier Li the message was clear: China is not only the the biggest market for German companies, it is also a growing one. China’s huge national reform programme agenda, opens up exciting new export and investment opportunities for German — and other European — companies. Discussions focused on China’s massive urbanisation needs which can be met by European companies.Chinese investments into Germany and the EU are soaring. Significantly, unlike many other countries, China has shown a strong interest in the future course of Asem, the Asia Europe Meeting forum which is often criticised for being a mere talk shop.At the Asem summit in Milan last week, Li waxed lyrical about Asem’s role in improving connectivity between Asia and Europe, underlining his vision of building a Silk Road between Asia.Li knows he is on a winning streak. As the Financial Times newspaper reported recently, Chinese investors are surging into the EU.In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over 6.1bn euro — less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly 27bn euro, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.Not surprisingly, the EU and China are in the process of negotiating a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting each others’ investments but also ensuring better marker access.China is clearly not about to ditch Russia. But Beijing’s focus is on the growing markets of Europe. Western policymakers can sleep easy. For many nights.

Fashioning "Global Europe" for the 21st Century (Originally published 01/10/13)

It’s not enough to talk about the European Union's standing and influence in today’s rapidly changing world: the EU needs to thrash out a new foreign policy adapted and responsive to 21st century challenges.This is urgent.  True, EU leaders, foreign ministers and senior official often engage in bouts of hand-wringing over Europe’s “loss of influence” and declining presence on the global stage.  This is often followed by a resounding thumping of chests as everyone agrees that Europe is – after all – still an important and relevant international player.  It’s not that simple, however.Europe certainly has much to offer. The EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe.  European technology helps the world tackle climate change, urbanisation and other 21st-century challenges, European design excites fashionistas the world over and tourists flock to European cities to enjoy good food, wine and visit exquisite monuments.Europe’s ‘soft power’ resonates when it comes to peace-making and reconciliation, trade, aid and the promotion of democracy and the rule of law.  With Croatia now in and others lining up to join, the EU retains its zone of influence in the neighbourhood.  And as the Eurozone crisis gives way to recovery, however fragile, global concerns about Europe’s economic performance are easing.And yet.  There is no doubt that the EU’s star does not shine as brightly as it should in many skies.  EU-watchers who once – too optimistically – believed that the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service would lead to a more forceful EU foreign policy are disappointed.Their disappointment is even stronger when it comes to European security and defence policy.  Many believe that because it has no army, navy or air force at its command, the EU will always be a second class international actor, handing out cheques but not pro-actively influencing global events and decisions.No appetite for military actionEurope’s partners know that while governments in France and Britain may still have an appetite for military interventions in response to international crisis, their citizens – and Europeans more generally – certainly don’t. Significantly, Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy and an industrial machine that’s the envy of the planet, has made clear that it is not overly interested in taking on global responsibilities of the military kind.Germany is viewed by many as a reluctant giant which, as one newspaper recently put it, seems content to lurk in the shadows. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying that Europe must become more competitive as China and other powers rise. “The world doesn’t sleep,” she said recently. However, she hasn’t coupled that with any grand visions for a continental revival.Within Europe, the doomsayers — of which there are many — insist that the Eurozone crisis and the impact of economic stagnation on European societies have accelerated the loss of EU influence in the international arena.China, India, Russia, Brazil and others are often seen in the EU as fierce rivals who want a ‘full-scale reversal’ of their relationship with the West by demanding better representation in multilateral fora and a stronger voice in global governance. Others argue that Europe should be more assertive and more self-confident when dealing with the cheeky new kids on the bloc.It was partly to respond to such concerns that the EEAS was set up three years ago to act as an EU foreign ministry — and certainly the EU flag is now more often seen flying across the world. But in today’s competitive world of rising powers, new alliances and increased geo-strategic competition, the EEAS is still seen as under-performing.Much of the criticism is levelled at Catherine Ashton, the head of the EEAS and the EU’s de facto foreign minister. It has to be said, however, that Ashton’s role is a difficult one and constrained by the limited space she is allowed by some of the EU’s bigger member states, including Britain and France.Pressure for a more effective foreign policyThe good news is that some EU countries want to go further. The foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden argued recently that Europe needs a strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world. The famous question posed by Henry Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state, about the dialling code for Europe has, by now, by and large been answered, the ministers said.“The critical question is no longer how to reach us, but instead what Europe should say when the phone rings,” they complained, adding: “we now have the hardware of institutions in place, we need to focus on the software of policies that makes the entire thing operate in a clear and credible way.”

The ministers are right: Europe needs a new strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world than the one that existed in 2003, when Javier Solana, the former EU “high representative” for foreign and security policy, drew up the first-ever EU strategy for living in a globalised world.

Such a new blueprint for “global Europe” need not be long and complicated.  It needs to start by recognising that the world has changed dramatically in the last decade - and include recommendations for a few pivotal changes in policies and attitudes.

While the 2003 document centred on traditional security threats, the focus should now shift to  non-traditional challenges – climate change, energy and food security, maritime piracy, cyber security - which must be tackled urgently.

The EU has strong expertise and experience in all these areas.  But concerted international action on these and other issues requires that countries and organisations build new networks and alliances.  It means working with like-minded nations but above all also cooperating with non-like minded countries.  It means talking with others, not haranguing or talking down to them.  And this means a change of EU diplomatic tone and style.

Respect for emerging powers

Global competition for influence has increased as China, Russia, India and Brazil become more assertive and more vocal on the global stage.  The EU may have “strategic partnerships” with these countries, but the agreements need to be reinforced and strengthened – and the EU has to learn to treat these nations with respect and use their insight to readjust its worldview.

Working only with the big guys of the emerging world is not enough.  The new world order is being fashioned not just by China and Brazil but also by countries like Indonesia and Mexico, Kenya, Australia and organisations such as ASEAN.  The EU  needs urgently to upgrade its ties with these nations and bring them on board as  partners.

The compelling need for better global governance in today's still-chaotic multipolar world demands such cooperation.

Relations with Turkey are an albatross around the EU's neck.  They need to be repaired urgently in order to allow for real consultation on regional and global flash-points.  Europe's relations with Turkey are under close scrutiny the world over, with people questioning just why the EU remains so reluctant to open its doors to such an important regional and international actor.  The answers are not edifying.

The EU's international and moral standing are conditional on its ability to build an inclusive society which celebrates diversity instead of fearing it.  Europe cannot condemn discrimination against minorities in Pakistan and Myanmar if its own track record in dealing with such issues is not above reproach.

Democracy and human rights

Europe's values - democracy, the rule of law, human rights (to name a few) - are important and should be promoted more actively across the globe.  But those doing the promotion should do so with sensitivity and humility.  The message is too important to be drowned out by arrogance.

While often irked by EU hectoring and lecturing on human rights, many countries are anxious to learn more from Europe about regional integration, reconciliation and reform.  Europe's "soft power" lies in its ability to teach an anxious world about conflict management and peace-building.

The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who have warned that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Ironicially while the new world order demands the establishment of networks and coalitions, the EU will become a more significant power if it builds on its uniqueness as a foreign policy actor.  As such, while the transatlantic relationship is vital and important, hanging on to US coat-tails, especially when it comes to Asia, is not a good option.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership certainly has its value in terms of jobs and growth on both sides of the Atlantic but it would be unfortunate if it is seen as the West "ganging up" against the rest.  For the moment, that is how China and other Asians see it.  The EU should act urgently to correct that impression - and invest more in the outcome of the Bali ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation in December.

Civil society actorsForeign policy today is not just the exclusive preserve of diplomats. Civil society actors, social media, sports personalities, artists, academics and think tanks are now an essential part of the game.  The EU's new global outreach must include such thought-leaders.  As the Arab Spring has shown, dealing only with governments is no longer an option.As Javier Solana, the EU’s former ‘high representative’ for foreign and security policy said recently, in today’s world of flux, the nature of power is changing. Power was once measured in the size of armies and population, not in terms of GDP per capita, reputation and whether you get to host the Olympic Games.  It is also about ideas, innovation, art and culture.It is worth remembering that while military force and interventions can provoke regime change, in the end, all parties — the victorious and the defeated — have to come to the negotiating table and find political solutions. And this is something the EU and Europeans are very good at.It is often argued that further EU integration will lead to a united, coherent, and effective European foreign policy. This is true of course.  But the integration process remains slow and painful.  The need for a smarter and more forceful EU foreign policy is urgent.

A new agenda for EU-Asia relations (Originally published 14/01/13)

Perhaps it was the US “pivot” to Asia, perhaps the Eurozone crisis or possibly a much-belated recognition of the need for stronger Asia-Europe engagement?  Whatever the reason – or mix of reasons - European leaders have been spending some much-needed time and energy on improving their Asian connections.Leading European officials EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy attended key Asian gatherings in 2012.  The EU also signed up to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, Southeast Asia’s peace blueprint.The efforts are paying off.  There is heightened awareness of European-Asian economic interdependence; trade and investments are booming despite the Eurozone crisis and the global economic slowdown; after years of watching from the sidelines, the EU is becoming involved in Asia’s security discussions; there is recognition that tackling 21st Century challenges requires more forceful Asia-Europe cooperation.Following progress in EU-Asia relations made in 2012, the time is ripe to take relations to a higher level.  This requires that both sides switch from a focus on visits, meetings and issuing statements and communiques to a more substantive and meaningful strategy for stronger mutual engagement.The time for photo-opportunities is over.  Official visits - however welcome and needed – must be backed up by a fresh vision for a stronger, more sustainable EU-Asia strategic partnership which  underlines areas where the two regions can work together to meet the challenge of living together in a rapidly changing and very complex world.The new blueprint need not be long or all-comprehensive. Asia is much too diverse and the challenges it faces are much too complex to lend itself to such an approach. Europe too is changing fast.In the end, it’s simple: In an inter-dependent, globalised world where no one nation, bloc or region can claim to lead the rest, where security is about more than military spending and where nations’ are connected to each other by a dense web of trade and investments, Europe-Asia cooperation is the only option.It’s not about whether Europeans have the time, energy or interest in Asia or whether Asians think Europe is still relevant.  It’s about the economy, moving beyond the Eurozone crisis and the challenge of ensuring sustained global growth.  It’s about dealing with climate change, pandemics, humanitarian disasters and poverty.  It’s also about preventing tensions and conflicts which can endanger global peace and security.Here are a few suggestions for engineering a truly qualitative step forward in EU-Asia relations:

• Move from an event-focused relationship to a partnership based on common concerns and tackling shared challenges.  This shift can be made within the Asia Europe Meetings (ASEM), in relations with ASEAN and on a bilateral level.  The agenda set for such meetings is often an endless laundry list of areas of cooperation.  These should be narrowed down to a smaller list of core issues which require joint reflection and action.  This should include (a) new global challenges such as climate change and urbanisation, (b) trade and economic questions, (c) politics and security, (d) regional integration initiatives and (e) people-to-people contacts.

•  Use the ASEM network of 51 nations and organisations to advance discussions on the list of issues above and foster stronger personal contacts between European and Asian leaders and policymakers.  The fact that the next ASEM summit will be held in Brussels in autumn 2014 under Lisbon rules (ie the EU Council and the European External Action Service will set the agenda rather than an individual European government) provides a welcome opportunity for discussions to focus on EU-wide interests rather than narrower national priorities.

• Continue to enhance ties with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).  The ambitious plan of action agreed at the EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting in 2013 is a good step forward in relations but needs to be accompanied by three important steps: the organisation of an EU-ASEAN summit, reflection on recognising ASEAN as a key strategic partner and the appointment of a special EU envoy to ASEAN. Such moves will not only give EU-ASEAN relations a stronger foundation but also signal the EU’s recognition of ASEAN’s “centrality” gin ensuring peace and stability in the Asia Pacific and leading regional integration initiatives.

• Leverage economic and trade ties to forge an integrated strategy for EU-Asia relations.  Economics has long been the backbone of EU-Asia links and the EU has been pro-active in negotiating free trade agreements and investment treaties with leading Asian nations, including South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, India and Japan.  Business summits are also often held with many Asian countries, including with ASEAN.  These trade initiatives need to be made part of the EU’s overall Asia strategy.  This is especially important given that Asian nations are involved in an array of regional trade networks, including their own Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) initiative and the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

• Engage in security discussions. As it seeks to gain entry to the East Asia Summit, the EU should make sure that leading European policymakers participate in Asian security fora such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) but also the informal Shangrila Dialogue held every year in Singapore and ASEAN-linked security discussions.  Although there is no European military presence in Asia, the EU can make constructive contributions to the region’s security discussions in areas such as preventive diplomacy, conflict resolution and disaster management.

• Move away from confrontational narratives.  EU-Asia relations have been complicated for far too long by a narrative of competition which paints a picture of the EU as reluctant to adapt to a rapidly changing world and uncertain and uneasy Europe in the face of a self-confident and assertive Asia.  The discussion has been useful in focusing Asian and European minds’ on the changing world order and spotlighting the need for stronger Asia-Europe understanding and engagement. But it is time to move on.   Asia-Europe relations in this new era must be based on partnership to deal with complex 21st Century challenges.  Europe in particular needs to change the tone and style of its inter-action with Asia.

In addition to seeking a stronger regional influence, the EU should of course continue apace with its diplomatic, trade and economic ties with individual Asian countries.   Stagnant South Asian regional integration in particular needs to be given a new lease of life.EU policymakers like to say that 2012 was a “pivotal” year for relations with Asia.  One year is not enough, however.  The effort has to be sustained over the long-term.

As Asians talk security, Europe cannot be on the sidelines (Originally published 09/07/12)

As senior EU policymakers get ready to attend Asia’s top security conference in Cambodia on 11-12 July, there should be no doubt: Europe and Asia need to work more actively and forcefully together.Debates on whether or not the EU should seek stronger engagement with Asian nations or be content with a marginal role in the region may be intellectually stimulating – but they are pointless.Certainly, the EU will never be a “Pacific power” and should have no ambition of becoming one. But neither can it remain passively on the side lines of developments in Asia.In an inter-dependent, globalised world where no one nation, bloc or region can claim to lead the rest, where security is about more than military spending and where nations’ are connected to each other by a dense web of trade and investments, Europe-Asia cooperation is the only option.It’s not about whether Europeans have the time, energy or interest in Asia or whether Asians think Europe is still relevant. It’s about the economy and the challenge of ensuring sustained global growth. It’s about dealing with climate change, pandemics, humanitarian disasters and poverty. It’s also about preventing tensions and conflicts which can endanger global peace and security.None of these challenges can be tackled by one nation or region on its own. Certainly US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in Phnom Penh for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to reassure Southeast Asian nations of America’s renewed commitment to the region. But, exhausted by two long-drawn wars and beset by shrill election-year domestic concerns, the US has made clear that it is no longer ready to play global policeman or global peacemaker.Despite its growing economic clout, China has never laid claim to being an international leader and is unlikely to do so in the near future. Russia’s global ambitions are not credible. India is not interested.In contrast, whether they like it or not, Europeans are expected to think and act globally, stand up for certain key universal principles, to be generous and kind to victims and get tough with bullies.For all their criticism of Europe – and despite the Eurozone crisis – even the fiercest Asian commentators recognise that Asians can learn much from Europe. Asians have never liked European “arrogance” in lecturing and hectoring them on their perceived deficits and weaknesses. But they admire much that is European including European technology, products and culture. In order to keep growing, Asians need European markets and investments.When she sits down with Hillary Clinton at the ARF meeting later this week, Catherine Ashton, the EU's chief diplomat, should remember that Asia-Europe cooperation is a necessity – although reaching out to countries in the region is not always easy.Political reform in China remains a distant dream, economic liberalisation is patchy and dissidence is met with repression. Indian democracy is messy and even as it claims Great Power status, millions of Indians live in dire poverty. ASEAN integration is slow, painful and incomplete and decision-making in the 10-nation bloc is often very complicated.But the economic reality is simple: The EU is China's biggest and ASEAN's third-biggest trading partner. It is also the largest investor in ASEAN countries with an average of 20.6% of foreign direct investment over the past three years.The EU has signed free trade agreements with South Korea and is negotiating others with India, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. An EU-ASEAN free trade agreement could be negotiated as of 2015.The recent EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting in Brunei saw the adoption of an action plan aimed at further building ties between the two regions. In Cambodia, the EU is expected to finally sign the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation which could pave the way for EU participation – one day - in the increasingly influential East Asia Summit.Without a hard military presence in Asia, the EU will never carry as much clout as the US. As they fret about China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, Vietnam and the Philippines need America’s reassuring embrace. Certainly a crisis in the South China Sea would also be disastrous for EU trade with the region. As such, Ashton’s presence at the ASEAN Regional Forum is a good signal of EU interest and concern.Europe can make other constructive contributions, especially since the basic premise of ASEAN security discussions is about building trust and confidence, preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution, issues that Europeans know a thing or two about.The ARF meeting in Cambodia will also discuss disaster management – another area of strong European expertise.In November EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso will be in Vientiane, Laos, for a summit with 19 leading Asian leaders. Barroso is also expected to attend the Bali Democracy Forum and make an official visit to Indonesia.Last year’s US “pivot” or renewed engagement with Asia has certain prompted Europe to put some new life into its lacklustre relations with the region. The challenge now is to ensure Europe’s sustained presence in Asia, in the interest of both regions.

Democracy is hard work, says Indonesian leader (13/12/11)

For a quick insight into Indonesia’s ambitions of exerting regional power and global influence, visit Bali in December when the laid-back luxury beach resort morphs into an animated hub of discussion and debate on democracy, human rights and the rule of law.Delegates to the Bali Democracy Forum are a motley crew: the meeting held last week brought together representatives from over 80 countries and hundreds of observers. The conference’s title – “Enhancing Democratic Participation in a Changing World: Responding to Democratic Voices” – may not be catchy and some of the speeches were tedious. But the message from Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains strong and unequivocal: Asian countries must match their economic success with democracy and political reform.The focus this year was inevitably on the Arab Spring. The Indonesian President warned that based on his country’s experience, there were no quick fixes. “It is safe to assume that in the early years, things will be more difficult before it gets better…Democratic success has to be built, earned and improvised every step of the way. Indeed elections are only one of the tools of democracy and building a mature democracy takes a lot more than holding elections.”Launched in 2008 to encourage discussion and exchange of views on democracy among Asian countries, annual meetings of the Bali Democracy Forum have become a potent exercise in Indonesian public diplomacy.The Forum has grown in credibility and prestige over the years, spotlighting Indonesia’s democratic record since the fall of President Suharto in 1998, and the country’s increasingly vocal and visible aspirations to become Asia’s prime normative power and champion of political reform and democracy.The message from Jakarta is strong and clear: Indonesia matters – in both Southeast Asian and on the global stage. The country’s new breed of gutsy and self-confident politicians and diplomats are breaking with the cautious approach of past administrations by working hard to give Indonesia a stronger regional and international voice.Indonesia’s transformation from dictatorship to a modern and robust democracy in the past decade is no modest achievement – and through the annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia wants to spread the gospel on democracy.Indonesia’s foreign policy ambitions are not new. The country has long been active on the regional and international foreign and security policy stage. However, President Yudhoyono, now serving his second and final term in office, has given a new boost to the reputation of Southeast Asia's largest economy and most populous nation, successfully portraying it as one of Asia’s most exciting countries with constructive contributions to make within the region and on the global stage.Helped by men like former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, Indonesian diplomacy is now in full gear, its officials no longer content to watch from the sidelines as regional and world leaders step up engagement with China and India.Mr Wirajuda, a gentle and affable man, with a sweeping vision and experience of the world tells me in Bali that Indonesia wants to share its experience with Arab countries in transition. “WE can learn from each others’ mistakes,” he says.The focus has to be on social justice, on fighting corruption on not allowing a monopoly of power. “Governments have to be sensitive to the aspirations of the people,” he underlines.Significantly, Turkey, seen as a model for mixing Islam and democracy, was also present at the Bali meeting.In the last few years, Indonesia has taken its place in the G20, become a force to be reckoned with in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and adopted a moderating role within the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC).Jakarta’s efforts at fighting terrorism and radicalization are watched carefully by its neighbours as well as the United States and the European Union.Long-term prospects are bright. Indonesia’s economic growth rates – expected to remain around the 6 per cent mark in the near future – continue to impress. Demographics are excellent; 44% of its population is under 24, meaning a growing workforce in years to come. Basic literacy rates are at 90% (although education still needs a lot of investment). The country is resource-rich. It's a major exporter of soft commodities such as palm oil, cocoa and coffee, as well as coal.But it's not just a geared play on commodities. The economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with consumption accounting for around 60% of GDP. Indonesia is also strategically located: half of world trade passes by its northern maritime border, giving the country a strategic role in ensuring safe and secure international navigation.Small wonder then that US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard are among leaders who have recently trod the red carpet in Jakarta. The US and Australia are seeking to sign ambitious cooperation pacts aimed at enhancing ties with Indonesia, clearly seeing the country as a counter-weight to China's growing influence in the region.As the driving force behind many Asian regional integration initiatives. Indonesia is often held up as an example to be followed by neighbouring Burma/Myanmar, a role that Jakarta does not shun.To fulfill its regional and global ambitions, however, Indonesia will have to put its domestic house in order. Indonesians tell me the country remains riddled by corruption and religious extremism is still a problem. Few doubt that Indonesia needs to make faster progress in addressing issues like freedom of expression, military reform, police brutality (especially in Papua), treatment in prisons and of minorities.“We remain vigilant as Indonesia is not totally free from the prospect of new communal conflicts flaring up,” the Indonesian President told delegates at the Bali Forum, adding: “The more we guarantee human rights for our citizens, the more durable our democracy will become.” It is a lesson for many countries, not just those living through the so-called “Arab Spring”.

America’s focus on Asia is a “wake up call” for Europe (Originally published02/12/11)

America’s focus on the Asia-Pacific appears to have acted as a much-needed wake-up call for the European Union. Over the coming months, EU policymakers are expected to take a closer look at Europe’s relations with Asia and hopefully come up with a new blueprint for invigorating flagging Europe-Asia ties.There is much to be done. Having failed to forge real “strategic partnerships” with the region’s rising powers, the 27-nation EU has long-focused on a limited trade-only agenda with most Asian nations. Trade and economic ties do certainly bind and foster inter-dependence. But the economic link has not resulted in stronger Europe-Asia political relations or joint action to tackle key 21st Century challenges.EU-Asia security links are practically non-existent. After a successful peace monitoring mission in Aceh in 2005-2006, the EU has steered clear of any security-related initiatives in Asia. Recently, Asian and European countries have cooperated in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia action in Asia. But this is of course eclipsed by the US military presence in Asia – and President Barack Obama’s recent decision to send more troops to Australia.The US clearly believes this is the “Asia Pacific Century”. During his nine-day sweep through the region, President Obama hosted an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Hawaii, went to Australia, took up America’s seat at the East Asia Summit in Bali and sent tough signals to China in its backyard. He also dispatched US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma on a breakthrough mission to assess moves towards democracy in the country.Countries in the region are eager for America’s presence and influence, often as a counter to China. The US President stressed in a speech to the Australian parliament that the troop buildup was not aimed at China. China’s defense ministry has warned, however, that plans to build up a U.S. military presence in Australia are a continuation of “Cold War thinking” that could destabilize the Asia-Pacific region.Certainly, no European leader can create the same buzz in Asia as the US President. The problem is that most Europeans do not even try.True, the EU has long talked of building strong strategic relations with Asia’s emerging powers. But the rhetoric remains just that: EU ties with China, India, Indonesia and the region’s other rising nations remain lackluster and uninspiring. EU and Asian leaders meet for high-level summits, ministerial encounters and issue wordy communiques. But handshakes and photo opportunities are no substitute for policy and strategic thinking.In dealing with ascending Asia, the EU would be well advised to take a page or two from the US strategy towards the region. America’s renewed commitment to the Asia-Pacific offers Europe an opportunity to learn from - and possibly participate in - what is certain to become a vibrant transpacific partnership.Competition with the US for influence and visibility in Asia has long driven EU policy in the region. EU leaders launched ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting) as a platform for dialogue with Asian countries in 1996, largely as a response to APEC. EU policymakers often gauge their success or failure in Asia by comparing European trade or business flows with America’s economic presence in the region.And since the US – and Russia – participated in the latest East Asia Summit, the EU is stepping up pressure on Asian governments to be given entry into the influential club.A new transpacific alliance could therefore provide the spur Europe needs to get its own act together in Asia.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances with countries in the region.However, European policymakers have not been as good at doing their homework on Asia as their American counterparts. Even as Hillary Clinton promises substantially increased investment - diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming years, Catherine Ashton, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy, has yet to set out a convincing blueprint for relations with Asia.In fact, apart from trips to China, Ashton is a rare visitor to the rest of the continent. Her decision to stay away from the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Bali, Indonesia in July this year, for a second year running, was a serious diplomatic faux pas.Asians saw Ashton’s absence from ARF as a snub and yet another signal that, apart from a focus on China, Europe is not really interested in the region. Many Asian analysts warn that Europe is becoming increasing irrelevant in Asia. And they insist that if Europeans are serious about joining the EAS, they should stop talking and – like the Americans - start proving they are serious about stepping up political engagement with Asia.Turning EU rhetoric into action can begin with four easy steps:For starters, senior EU officials can stop playing hard-to-get and start attending key Asian meetings taking place in the region.The European External Action Service should hammer out a revamped, up-to-date agenda for EU-Asia cooperation which goes beyond trade and business. EU negotiations on free trade agreements with Asian countries are a positive step forward in helping to enhance economic ties. But trade policy, however active, cannot replace foreign policy.EU policymakers need to engage in some serious reflection, based on input from independent researchers, think tanks, academics, business leaders and other non-state actors, from both Europe and Asia, on how to get Europe-Asia ties on a more dynamic track. Like the Americans, Europeans must engage more actively with independent think tanks working on Asia.Again, like the Americans, the EU should become an active partner in the increasingly important security discussions in Asia, including within ARF and other fora.Once it has stepped up engagement with Asian countries, the EU will be in a position to make a credible bid to join a transpacific dialogue. After all, Europe’s cooperation is essential in tackling today’s global challenges.

September 11, 2001: A Watershed Moment for European Muslims (Originally published 09/09/11)

Ten years on, there is little doubt: September 11, 2001 was a watershed moment for Muslims, not just in the Islamic world and the United States but also in Europe. Largely unnoticed until then, 9/11 thrust the spotlight on Europe’s 20 million-strong Muslim community which suddenly found itself in the eye of the storm.Muslims were adamant that Al Qaeda and terrorism had nothing to do with their religion. Nobody believed them, however. It was a question of guilt by association.Europe’s struggle to build an inclusive society which recognises and accommodates Muslims and other minorities was made more difficult during the last decade. The tragic massacre in Norway this summer is a sad reflection of the strength of anti-Muslim feeling among Europe’s far-right.

The attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, followed by London and Madrid, the tragedy in Mumbai and terrorist acts elsewhere, have prompted strengthened international counter-terrorism efforts. They have also meant increased suspicion, surveillance and stigmatisation of Muslim communities, including in Europe.

Today, the arrival of refugees and asylum seekers from North Africa in recent months is exacerbating fears of a rising Muslim presence in Europe, amid concerns that Muslims cannot be truly integrated as full-fledged European citizens.

The current economic crisis coupled with weak leadership - as well as increased contacts between far-right groups in Europe and America – is making it easier for populist politicians to spread a simple albeit toxic xenophobic message: Europe is turning into Eurabia and the Shariah is being introduced by stealth. This negative narrative has filtered into Europe’s political mainstream.

The reality is more upbeat, however. Despite the hand-wringing over the visible presence of Islam and Muslims in the public space, the last ten years have also been marked by transition and change in the lives of European Muslims.

While causing discomfort and unease, the spotlight on Muslims has also had a positive effect by helping Muslims and host communities to confront difficult issues of integration which had been neglected over decades.

Over the last ten years, European Muslims have become more active in demanding equal rights as full-fledged citizens, organising themselves into pressure groups, and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural and sports icons.

Similarly, European governments are slowly combining an approach focused on security and counter-radicalisation with an integration agenda and Muslim outreach programmes. Government and business recruitment policies are being changed gradually to increase the employment of Muslims and minorities.

Business leaders are demanding an increase in immigration, including from Muslim countries, to meet Europe’s skills shortage. The EU has adopted a new anti-discrimination directive in the new Lisbon Treaty which strengthens existing rules on combating racism.

The challenge for European governments and European Muslims is to hammer out a fresh narrative which looks at European Muslims as active and full-fledged citizens rather than as exotic foreigners.

Despite recent comments by the French, German and British leaders on the failure of multiculturalism in Europe, the continent today is a vibrant mix of people, cultures and religions. Integration and mainstreaming is taking place although this is often not spotlighted by politicians or the media.

However, the voices of reason on immigration and Muslims remain strangely silent. European politicians are reluctant to tell the real truth about Muslims and immigrants’ contribution to their country’s economy, culture or history. Business leaders may sometimes point out – timidly – that ageing and skills-deficient Europe needs foreign labour, but their arguments are lost in transmission. In all honesty also, intelligent and reasonable Muslim voices are heard much too seldom.

Europe needs a rational, thoughtful debate on the challenges of reconciling justifiable European concerns on employment with efforts to build an inclusive society. If it is to compete on the global stage, Europe should seek to capitalise on the talents of all its citizens. Perhaps, after the storm, there will then be calm acceptance of diversity.

US lessons for EU-Asia ties (Originally published 18/07/11)

European Union policymakers seeking a seat for Europe at the East Asia Summit, the region’s leading security forum, should stop talking and start proving they are serious about stepping up political engagement with Asia.Turning EU rhetoric into action can begin with three easy steps.For starters, senior EU officials can stop playing hard-to-get and start attending key Asian meetings taking place in the region.The decision by Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, not to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Bali, Indonesia on July 22-23 for a second year running is a serious diplomatic faux pas.Asians see it as a snub and yet another signal that, apart from a focus on China, Europe is not really interested in the region. Britain and Germany are understandably not too pleased with Ashton’s decision either.The fact that Ashton’s acting “deputy”, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, is also not going to the ARF makes things worse. The task of representing the EU at the ARF top table has apparently fallen to Elzbieta Bienkowska, Poland’s minister for regional development.Protocol-conscious Asians are not amused. If the Baroness is too busy, say Asian diplomats, she could have asked the much-respected Kristalina Georgieva,EU Commissioner for international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response, affairs, to attend the ASEAN Forum.True, the EU held its own Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) with Asian foreign ministers in Hungary in June. But by shying away from travel to Asia, Ashton and others are reinforcing the impression of EU neglect and indifference.Correcting this perception will not be easy. As a result, Europe may have to wait a long time for that much-coveted seat at the East Asia Summit which, in addition to key regional players such as Japan and Australia, now also includes both the US and Russia.Second, the European External Action Service should hammer out a revamped, up-to-date agenda for EU-Asia cooperation which goes beyond trade and business. EU negotiations on free trade agreements with Asian countries are a positive step forward in helping to enhance economic ties. But trade policy, however active, is no substitute for foreign policy.EU policymakers need to engage in some serious reflection, based on input from independent researchers, think tanks, academics, business leaders and other non-state actors, from both Europe and Asia, on how to get Europe-Asia ties on amore dynamic track. The conference “Europe and the Asian Century”, organised by Friends of Europe on June 21, highlighted several areas for future engagement between the two regions.European institutions still tend to be wary of advice from “outsiders”. As a result, EU policy on Asia has failed to adapt to Asia’s changing political, economic and social landscape. Like the Americans, Europeans must engage more actively with independent think tanks working on Asia.Third, like the Americans – and increasingly, the Russians - the EU should become an active partner in the increasingly important security discussions in Asia, including within ARF, the annual security-focused gathering of Asian foreign ministers and their key foreign partners.As she did last year, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is going to the ARF meeting and the other encounters organised around the Forum, including a preparatory meeting of the East Asia Summit which will be held in Bali on November 19, with President Barack Obama in attendance.US officials make clear that Clinton makes a point of “showing up” at Asian gatherings to prove America’s “sustained commitment” to the region and to enhance its strategic engagement with Asian countries, especially ASEAN members.The ARF agenda is impressive, including discussions on easing the ongoing border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, tensions in the Korean Peninsula (with the reclusive North Korea making a rare appearance on the international stage by sending its Foreign Minister Pak Ui-Chun attends to the Bali meeting)and conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea.Missing meetings may appear trivial to a harried and rushed EU foreign policy chief who has to deal with myriad pressing issues, including some in Europe's immediate neighbourhood. But diplomacy is about travel, networking and trying to influence and shape policies and perceptions.For too many years – with the exception of Javier Solana, the former EU high representative for foreign and security policy - EU commissioners and ministers have either stayed away from meetings with their Asian counterparts or put in a brief, formal appearance. Opportunities for dialogue and networking were missed. Personal relationships have not been nurtured.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances. If the EU wants a seat at the East Asia Summit, senior European diplomats will have to learn to engage more actively and more constructively with rising Asia.

Tigers, jaguars and global growth (Originally published 14/03/11)

The impact of Asia’s rise on the European Union and the United States dominates world headlines. The focus is also often on the pros and cons of China’s growing presence in Africa. Lost in the reports is mention of Latin America’s booming economies – and the role played by ascending Asia in helping to transform the region.Latin America is rapidly emerging as a global economic power. And deepening economic links between Asia’s booming economies and Latin America have been pivotal in driving forward this evolution.This is clearly good news for both regions – and for the global economy. Increasing trade connections between Asia and Latin America have helped shelter both regions from the worst effects of the economic crisis affecting the US and the EU.The EU and the US have long urged developing countries to step up “south-south” trade to boost global trade flows, help create new jobs, raise revenues and diversify export patterns.Until recently, however, globalisation was all about growing links between industrialised and emerging nations. Today, however, it’s the integration of emerging markets that has become a major engine of world growth.China is of course spearheading the drive. “Latin America is looking towards China and Asia – and China and Asia are looking right back,” underlined the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in a report published in 2008.But other Asian countries including Japan, South Korea and India, are also expanding their presence in Latin America. The Inter-American Development Bank says Asian trade with the region topped 256 billion US dollars in 2010 –more than Latin America’s annual trade with the EU and more than half of its trade with the US. China has displaced the US as Brazil’s top trading partner.The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates intra-emerging market trade rose on average by 18 per cent per year from 2000 to 2008, faster than commerce between emerging and industrialised nations. It totalled 2.8 trillion US dollars in 2008, about half of emerging-market trade with all countries.The rise in south-south trade is impressive. Chinese exports to other emerging markets, accounted for 9.5 per cent of GDP in 2008, compared with 2 per cent in 1985. India’s exports rose to 7.3 per cent from 1.5 per cent and Brazil’s almost doubled to 6.3 per cent.It’s no secret; Asians are interested in Latin America’s natural resources. Commodity exports from Latin America to are thriving and likely to become even more buoyant as new highways being built across Latin America from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans open up new trade routes to Asia.Latin America is also an attractive market for Asia’s green technology firms. Indian pharmaceutical companies have started factories and joint ventures in Lain America and that produce millions of dollars worth of lost-cost generic drugs. Capital goods represent an estimated 54 per cent of Brazilian imports from China.There is undoubtedly trade rivalry between the two regions as low-cost Asian manufactured goods compete with Latin America’s industrial products both in the region itself and on the global stage.Asia and Latin American have so far dealt with such friction in a non-confrontational manner. Both sides have a vital interest in pushing for more dynamic south-south trade and investment flows. So does the rest of the world.