China-Europe: a curious conversation

Early April in Beijing and the sky is unusually clear and blue, cherry blossoms are in full bloom and the roads are eerily quiet. It’s “tomb sweeping” day and most of my Chinese friends and colleagues are on holiday, commemorating their ancestors.I’m in Beijing for meetings on EU-China relations. I need to get my thoughts together, write up my talking points for the upcoming seminars. But I can’t concentrate. And since all offices and shops are shut, it’s the perfect moment to visit the Great Wall.And so here I am, climbing up the long and winding road that takes me to the bus stop that takes me to the cable car that takes me — finally — to one small but majestic portion of the Great Wall.It’s breath-taking. All the pictures I’ve seen do not prepare me for the magnificent reality. Like everyone else I’ve looked up the impressive facts and figures. The Wall is old, long and high — and every stone, every inch has an interesting story to tell. But seeing is believing, and the Wall, with its majestic vistas and amazing construction, does not disappoint.I like the legends and the history. But I’m more focused on modern-day China and the enormous challenge of economic transformation that President Xi Jinping has embarked on. I’m also watching my fellow tourists who are slowly wheezing up the steep slope with me.We are a motley bunch. Chinese grandmas and grandpas with toddlers in tow, young lovers out on a date, foreign tourists from India, Indonesia and the Philippines and an attractive blonde woman on her own who stops every two minutes or so to take a selfie with the Wall as a backdrop. Who needs friends when you have a smartphone?The return journey to Beijing is complicated as the roads clog up with traffic and our driver struggles to find ingenious back roads to get us to the hotel. We get to see more cherry blossoms on the side roads, small carts full of fruit, strawberries for sale in tiny stalls. It’s like going back in time.Tomorrow Beijing will be back to normal, our driver warns. Beware of pollution and traffic jams, he says. Be prepared.I am. And not just for the congested roads and stinging eyes. I’m all geared up for some interesting discussions with Chinese academics and think tank representatives on relations between China and Europe.I’ve been tracking the ups and down of relations between Europe and China for many years and the EU-China “strategic partnership” continues to fascinate and intrigue me.Unlike the US, Europe doesn’t see China as a rival or competitor. Never having achieved the “super power” status, Europe isn’t too wary of the changed world order and the rise of China — and India, Asean and others.Europe isn’t an Asian power but an Asian partner, EU policymakers insist. There is much that the EU and China can do together on the bilateral level and on the global stage. Europe is a strong supporter of China’s new economic transformation agenda. Its mutual say Chinese officials who insist that Beijing wants a stronger and more integrated Europe.Both sides are cooperating on a range of issues, including China’s plans to build a “One Belt, One Road” connectivity network linking Europe and Asia. There is heady talk of an EU-China partnership on urbanisation, building 5G technology and warmer people-to-people relations.This is heartening — but its only part of the story. In the public discussions in Beijing, Chinese academics make no secret of their anger at Europe’s stance on two key issues: the EU’s reluctance to grant China “market economy status” and Europe’s failure to lift the arms embargo imposed on Beijing after the Tiananmen Square clampdown in 1989.There are accusations that Europe is too easily swayed by American pressure to take a tougher stance against China. And since it is not a “hard” security actor, some Chinese colleagues insist that the EU has no business making statements on rising tensions in the South China Seas.Europeans, for their part, complain about market access restrictions facing European exporters and investors, the slow pace of economic reform in China and worry about the country’s increased assertiveness on the regional stage. There are worries about China’s overcapacity in sectors such as steel which is making life difficult for Europe’s steelmakers.But while the talk sometimes gets tough, it’s clear that Europe and China need each other. Trade between the two sides is worth about 1.5 billion euros a day. An estimated three million jobs in Europe depend on relations with China. Beijing needs Europe’s intellectual expertise, technology and experience.Both sides face the challenge of ensuring growth and jobs, looking after their ageing population while also providing hope and employment for young people. There is talk of synergies between the EU 2020 agenda for growth and jobs and China’s plans for a “new normal” of lower but high-quality, sustainable and inclusive growth.As European and Chinese leaders prepare to meet in Beijing in July for their 18th summit, it is clear that EU-China relations have grown and matured over the years. Brussels and Beijing talk to each other on multiple topics and in multiple fora.There are disagreements and occasional bitterness and sparring. But the conversation is intense, much more so than the EU’s relations with other Asian nations. There is mutual curiosity. And the beginnings of a mutual understanding.In a world marked by inter-state rivalries, power struggles and competition between nations, can anyone really — and realistically — ask for more?

Islam in Europe: The twain shall meet

Aijaz Zaka Syed, a Gulf-based writer, writes on the well documented topic of Islam in Europe. As Shada Islam has covered the issue herself over the years and months leading to the publication of this article, it would be best to have the events and perceptions painted using the words of another writer for once.Fear stalks Europe's fortress. Perhaps seldom in the long history of the continent has it been afflicted by such overwhelming insecurity and paranoia. The scare of “Muslims are coming” dominates conversations everywhere. Images of refugees from Syria and other hot spots pouring into Europe abound. The breathless coverage of the “refugee crisis” by European media and scaremongering by politicians like Marie Le Pen doesn’t help.It is not just the extreme right that is raising the specter of Islamic invasion of the white, Christian continent. Mainstream parties like David Cameron’s Tories have been resorting to the same alarmist rhetoric against migrants both old and new. A new UK law threatens to deport thousands of immigrants who earn less than 35,000 pounds a year. It is this politics of paranoia and hate that has brought an unhinged bigot like Trump to the center-stage of US presidential elections. Terror attacks like those in Paris and the fear of homegrown extremists only add fuel to the raging debate and play into the hands of the Right, which has been steadily rising everywhere.The recent cover of Poland’s popular weekly WSieci, warning of the “Islamic Rape of Europe” perhaps best illustrates the paranoia. It is a graphic and racist depiction of a screaming blonde woman, with eyes closed, draped in the EU flag with three sets of brown and black hands clawing at the flag and her hair.This is but just one example of the extreme fear and loathing being whipped up across Europe. The WSieci cover story also attacks German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has demonstrated rare humanity and moral courage by welcoming more than a million refugees last year, for “undermining European culture and civilization.”But is Europe really in danger of being swamped by the predominantly Muslim migrants?Jordan with a population of 8 million has provided refuge to 1.7 million Syrians. Turkey has been sheltering more than 3 million Syrian refugees. So if the EU with a population of more than 500 million people and a GDP of more than $27,000 faces the possibility of receiving a million or two war victims, it’s not the end of the world. By the way, as author Kenan Malik points out, a million refugees constitute less than 0.2 percent of the EU’s population. Besides, these are the people who have fled their countries in extremely trying circumstances. Thousands have perished in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas or overland in trying to reach to safety in what they hope is a better life for their loved ones. This is what people have done for thousands of years — migrate — when faced with danger and certain, perilous future. This is why the UN Charter mandates member states to provide refuge to all such people.More important, Europe has a moral and ethical responsibility to do its bit for these migrants considering this is a crisis largely created by the West. While the Arab Spring quickly toppled the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, Syria has proved a tough nut to crack. If Assad has survived this long, at catastrophic cost to his people and country, the credit goes to Iran, their ally Hezbollah and Russia of course. This conflict has claimed at least 300,000 lives with nearly half of the country’s population now living in refugee camps in neighboring countries.Can you blame the Syrians if they are fleeing this veritable hell?What will it take for Europe and other world powers to recognize this and show some mercy and humanity to these desperate men, women and children who are fleeing persecution and in most cases certain death? After all, no one willingly abandons his/her home and land of ancestors.  And it’s about time Europe accepted Islam and Muslims as essential part of the continent. They are here to stay. Europe has been home to at least 50 million Muslims, who have enriched the European society in numerous ways. Indeed, Islam has been part of Europe for the past 1,200 years.Muslims arrived in the continent as early as 711 AD when they conquered Spain and created a society that remains a model of religious harmony. The Muslims ruled Spain for centuries in a period known as the Golden Age of Andalusia where Muslims, Christians and Jews co-existed in peace and created a great civilization that produced great art, architecture and scholarship. The expansion of Turkey’s Ottoman Empire marked the second phase of Islamic engagement with the continent, which saw millions of indigenous Europeans embrace Islam. The third phase of engagement came with the arrival of thousands of South Asian, Turkish and North African immigrants who provided cheap labor to countries like UK, Germany, France and Belgium.So it’s not as if this is the first time Europe is opening its doors to Muslims. Islam and the West have co-existed for more than a millennium and there is no need for conflict now. This is possible only when both sides tried to understand, engage and accept each other. Integration is a two-way street.  If instead of viewing Muslims through the lens of security, Europe sincerely try to accommodate them, as Germany, Canada and Greece have done, it would be in the interest of both.The majority of European Muslims are law-abiding citizens who pay taxes and share the same concerns, needs and experiences as non-Muslims, according to the Open Society Institute. And across Europe, immigrants are revitalizing impoverished urban neighborhoods, creating jobs and prompting innovation, reports the European Economic and Social Committee. As Shada Islam of Friends of Europe says, “Europe’s focus is on Muslims as terrorists, refugees, foreign fighters, criminals and misfits, but these represent a minuscule minority of European Muslims. Europe must conduct a sensible conversation on migrants and Islam. People must move from talking about “us” and “them” to a more inclusive language of living in a shared space, with shared concerns and interests.” As the experience of nations like America, Canada and Australia demonstrates, migrants are never a burden and only bring value, dynamism and diversity of experience to host societies.That said, Muslims cannot be found wanting in their efforts to become acceptable and valuable to host societies. They must do everything to integrate and adapt themselves to the values, concerns and sensitivities of their adopted countries. They mustn’t do anything that puts their faith in the dock. There is an opportunity in this crisis for both Muslims and Europe.

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Turkey and EU (Originally published 10/10/2015 at Dawn.com)

Crises can result in strange bedfellows. Having criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “authoritarian” ways, European Union leaders are now turning to the Turkish leader to help ease the unprecedented influx of refugees on to EU territory.As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg: “In the refugee crisis, Turkey and the EU walk together and work together.”Not surprisingly Erdogan is making the most of it. The Turkish president has not endeared himself to democrats and human rights activists at home or abroad with his clampdown on the media, arrest of opponents, the crackdown on civil society protests, lavish spending on his official residence and other actions, including targeting of Syrian Kurdish strongholds.Relations between the EU and Turkey have been on the backburner for several years as the 28-nation bloc has fretted and sweated at the rollback of reforms in a country which is a candidate to join the EU.EU membership negotiations have been put on hold. Turkey has sulked, saying its interests lie to its east, not the west.The EU has raged against Ankara’s disregard for European values. Relations are still strained. But both Turkey and the EU are more vulnerable than in the past.Ankara’s dreams and ambitions of becoming an indispensable regional player have been destroyed by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s refusal to listen to Turkey. As a result, Erdogan’s influence in the region is not as potent as it was a few years ago.Europe’s many vulnerabilities are common knowledge. Even as Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has opened the borders to refugees from Syria, the sudden and massive arrival of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers has eroded public and political support for the move.And so to the negotiating table where Erdogan and the EU engage in horse-trading over the fate of refugees from Syria and other countries in conflict even as they try to put their own relations back on track.According to media reports, the Europeans are offering eventually to take half a million Syrians from new refugee and asylum-processing camps they would co-fund in Turkey in return for Ankara tightening its borders to stop people being smuggled in hazardous vessels to Greece, and agreeing to take back migrants who make it “illegally” to Europe via Turkey.As part of any possible pact, Erdogan is asking for a relaxation in visa requirements for Turks travelling to Europe. He also wants the EU to list Turkey as “a safe third country”, effectively whitewashing Ankara’s increasingly repressive policies and deteriorating human rights and media freedoms record.“Europe has to manage its borders better. We expect Turkey to do the same,” said Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, following talks with Erdogan. “The situation where hundreds of thousands are fleeing to the European Union from Turkey must be stopped.”Erdogan responded that Ankara was hosting almost 10 times as many Syrian refugees as the EU. While open to talks with Brussels, he said the key to stopping the flow of refugees was to establish a no-fly zone over the Turkish-Syria border and a buffer zone in northern Syria.This is viewed as a non-starter in Europe and in Washington, but Tusk said: “The European Union is ready to take up all issues with Turkey so we can also discuss a possible buffer zone in Syria.”Turkey is home to two million Syrian refugees and is the source of most of the influx into Europe of recent months. A pact with Turkey is now seen as the key to the effort to turn chaos into control.The aim is to have the Turks and the Greeks mount joint border controls at sea, organised by Frontex, the EU’s borders agency and that intercepted boat people be turned back to Turkey.Meanwhile, in an unusual joint appeal, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have urged European politicians to pull together amid multiple crises in a bid to heal EU divisions caused by the influx of refugees, debt crises and encroaching nationalist sentiment.In separate addresses to the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, both leaders underlined the risks now besetting the EU’s 28 nations.“The debate is not about less Europe or more Europe,” Mr Hollande told politicians, evoking the question of national sovereignty besetting member nations. “It is about the affirmation of Europe or the end of Europe. Yes, the end of Europe.”Chancellor Merkel, who has come forward as the champion of refugees flowing into Europe, said overcoming the refugee crisis together is a key challenge for the European Union.“It is precisely now,” she said, “that we need more Europe ... If we overcome that, we will be stronger after the crisis than before.”It was the first such joint appearance in Strasbourg since 1989, when West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and French president Francois Mitterrand spoke days after the fall of the Berlin Wall.“In the refugee crisis we must not succumb to the temptation of falling back into acting in nationalistic terms,” said Ms Merkel, standing next to French President Hollande, adding: “National solo efforts are no solution to the refugee crisis.”Significantly even as the two EU leaders were speaking in Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that a combined EU naval mission known as EU Navfor Med will now be able “to board, search and seize vessels in international waters, [after which] suspected smugglers and traffickers will be transferred to the Italian judicial authorities”.Yes, Europe is confused, overwhelmed and uncertain about what to do next. President Erdogan, in contrast, knows exactly what he wants: respect and recognition from a Europe that has too often disregarded Turkey as an important ally. And, ultimately, Turkish membership of the 28-nation European Union.

View from Abroad: A week of tears, tragedy and shame (Originally published 23/05/2015 at dawn.com)

They may disagree on many issues, but as they struggled to respond to their respective refugee crises, the European and Asian governments acted with an equally distressing disregard for human life.The Europeans showed little concern for the human rights and much — touted “European values” of tolerance etc that they often preach on the international stage and in their dealings with other states. The Asians illustrated an equal ruthlessness and lack of humanity.The Europeans turned a deaf ear to the Vatican’s appeal for mercy and charity. The Asian nations had little pity for the plight of fellow Muslims.In Europe, as the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean Sea worsened, with thousands of desperate African, Arab and Asian refugees continuing to arrive on Italian and Greek shores, the 28 European Union countries squabbled over the number of people they could “realistically” be expected to allow on to their territory.Plans were drawn up for a naval operation against the human traffickers. There was toxic talk of keeping out as many as possible of the world’s huddled masses.Take a look: In Asian seas, Rohingya migrants have nowhere to landIn Asia, the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) showed itself to be even more inhumane as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia left thousands of Rohingya refugees adrift on the high seas, adamant that they could not be expected to open their doors to Myanmar’s persecuted Muslim minority.The Rohingyas were eventually given temporary shelter by Malaysia and Indonesia, but only after repeated scoldings by the United Nations to protect migrants and refugees stranded on the vessels, to give priority to saving lives, protecting rights, and respecting human dignity.Amazingly, Mynamar where persecution against the Rohingyas is rife escaped Asean censure. Thailand which has received many of the migrants said it was not going to be taking in any more. None of the other Asean states said a word of protest.A meeting to discuss the problem has been called at the end of the month — but many believe that Myanmar is unlikely to attend.Significantly, UN officials, including the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein have also appealed strongly to European leaders to put human life, rights and dignity first when agreeing on a common response to what they called the “tragedy of epic proportions” unfolding in the Mediterranean Sea, where some 1,600 people have died this year trying to flee their strife-torn homelands.Certainly, it isn’t easy for any country to open its doors to thousands of foreigners in one go and to provide them with food, water and shelter — and a future.But in a world of war, violence, extremism, persecution and poverty, the mass movement of desperate people is inevitable. Pakistan opened its doors to millions of Afghans. Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey are taking in displaced Syrians.The situation of so-called “stateless” people is even worse. Palestinian refugees have been in camps for decades as have so-called “Biharis”. The Rohingyas, chased out by the Buddhist extremists in Myanmar, are unwelcome across Southeast Asia. Lampedusa in Italy is crowded with men, women and children of many different nationalities — but as they flee war and poverty, often leaving their documents behind, they might as well be stateless.The number of migrants entering the EU illegally almost tripled last year. Of the nearly 170,000 migrants who crossed the Mediterranean to Italy in 2014, more than 3,200 lost their lives trying to reach Europe. During the first two months of this year, arrivals were up 43 per cent versus the same period last year.The outlook for Asean is equally grim. Nearly 31,000 refugees took to the boats in the last three months of 2014, followed by another 25,750 in the first quarter of 2014. Europe’s initial response to the mass arrival of the refugees was feeble, disjointed and inadequate. But the reality of the human tragedy unfolding in what many now call the “sea of death” finally forced governments into action — of sorts.It’s still not clear if the distribution of the hapless people among EU member states will take place as the European Commission would like. Britain and France have already said no. With Europe’s Far Right xenophobic leaders breathing down their necks, others are not too keen either.Asean’s callousness is not unexpected. Countries in the region don’t really have a tradition of caring much about human rights and have a policy of not interfering in the affairs of others.Still, the lack of humanity initially shown by the region towards the desperate Rohingyas is cause for dismay. Most of Myanmar’s 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims are stateless and live in apartheid-like conditions. Almost 140,000 were displaced in clashes with ethnic Rakhine Buddhists in 2012.In addition to taking in the refugees, Asean must demand that Myanmar stop the continuing violence against Rohingyas. The credibility and reputation of the region is at stake. Asean may want to focus on high economic growth and its plans to build a frontier-free common market. But it would be a pity if it lost its soul in the process.

View from abroad: When it comes to Hungary, Europe should practise what it preaches (Originally published 09/05/2015 at dawn.com)

Believe it or not, there is more to the European Union than the recent elections in Britain and London’s erratic and volatile relationship with Brussels.The EU is also not just about the dire financial and economic straits in which Greece finds itself — and unrelenting speculation about whether or not Athens is ready to exit the troubled Eurozone.In addition to fears of a Brexit and Grexit, Berlin is mired in a new spying scandal which threatens to engulf German Chancellor Angela Merkel.And, of course, the EU is under attack over its less-than-impressive response to the humanitarian tragedy unfolding on its southern shores as hundreds of refugees and economic migrants drown even as they seek to enter “Fortress Europe”.The EU’s southern and eastern neighbourhoods are in turmoil. Relations with Russia remain tense and EU governments have no influence over events in the Middle East.These and other troubles facing the 28-nation bloc capture the media spotlight and lead to endless hand-wringing over the EU’s future.All of these troubles deserve attention. But, interestingly, neither the media nor EU policymakers appear to be paying serious attention to a country — Hungary — whose leaders appears intent on defying many of the key values — human rights, democracy and tolerance — that the EU holds so dear.It is an important paradox. The EU wields enormous power over countries which are seeking membership of the 28-nation club. But once a so-called “candidate country” joins the Union, Brussels loses much of its influence over the future direction of a “member state”.This is exactly what has happened with Hungary and some other “new” EU countries which joined the Union earlier this decade.Before it entered the EU club, Hungary had to meet very strict criteria on issues like democracy and adherence to the principles of a market economy. Human rights standards had to be adhered to. Every move made by the government was scrutinised and judged.No longer. Hungary is now accused of a host of sins — and while Brussels often chides and scolds, it has little — actually it has NO — power to change the course of events in the country.There is no doubt: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the bad boy of Europe. He cultivates close links with President Vladimir Putin at a time when the rest of the EU is seeking to distance itself from the mercurial Russian leader.Putin’s visit to Hungary earlier this year was widely seen as a defiance of the EU’s decision to keep cool diplomatic relations with Russia.More controversially, Orban has sent shock waves across the EU by insisting that the bloc should protect its borders against immigration by using military force because it doesn’t need new migrants.While other EU leaders in Brussels struggled to come up with a coherent plan to stem the tide of immigrants seeking shelter in Europe, Orban urged tougher measures.“Europe’s borders must be protected. We cannot be like a piece of cheese with holes in it so that they [immigrants] can be crossing in and out. Serious police and military steps must be taken and also steps that they remain at home,” he said.Going even further, Orban said the Hungarian government wanted to be able to detain all those who cross borders illegally, something that is only allowed in exceptional cases under EU law. It also wanted to have migrants work to cover the costs of their accommodation or detention in Hungary.In a questionnaire to be sent out to eight million citizens over 18 years of age, Hungarians will be asked to answer 12 questions on whether “the mismanagement of the immigration question by Brussels may have something to do with increased terrorism”.“The questions are leading and manipulative,” according to Dutch MEP Sophie In’ t Veld who said the whole questionnaire was “horrible”. Her colleague Cecilia Wikstrom, a Swedish liberal MEP, said it showed how Orban is distancing Hungary from Europe and “transforming Hungary into a mini-Russia”.There are suggestions that Orban, whose Fidesz party has seen a plunge in polls recently, is seeking to embrace issues championed by the far-right Jobbik party, the largest opposition force in Hungary.Hungary’s EU partners are equally vexed at the prime minister’s statements in favour of re-introducing the death penalty.Orban “should immediately make clear that this is not his intention. Would it be his intention, it would be a fight,” EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.Budapest has since then retracted Orban’s statements, saying it has no plans to restore the death penalty.Worryingly for Brussels, Orban has also staged an autocratic crackdown on the nation’s press, which the independent watchdog Freedom House now ranks as only “partly free”.While the EU has so far managed to keep Hungary in check, the country is a worrying example of how things can go very wrong in the heart of Europe and the European Union.EU officials and members of the European Parliament rant and rave about Hungary and Orban but the stark truth is that while the EU wields a huge stick before a country joins the club — demanding changes in government rules and regulations and overall conduct — its influence dims once a country becomes a member.So, while the talk in Brussels is understandably about Britain, Greece and Germany, it is time that EU leaders exerted some real pressure to bring Hungary in line with Europe’s standards of conduct.It’s about consistency, coherence in the EU and above all making sure that Europe practices what it preaches to the rest of the world.

View from Abroad: Prepare for ‘hard power’ Europe (Originally published 14/03/2015 at dawn.com)

You would think the European Union has its hands full trying to ease the Eurozone crisis and make sure Greece stays within the monetary union. You also would think the 28-nation bloc was happy with its role as the world’s smartest “soft power”, with no boots on the ground but many diplomats, aid workers and trade specialists ready and willing to work for constructive change in an increasingly volatile world.You would be wrong. Forget gentle persuasion and change by incentive rather than coercion. Carrots over sticks. The EU now wants its own army. It’s a tough world and the EU wants to play as tough as the others.Resuscitating a long-held but equally long-discarded concept, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has called for the creation of a European army to make Europe count on the global stage.No more soft words. It’s going to be about soldiers, guns and aircraft carriers. Europe wants to be a hard-nosed hard power, not a softie.Certainly, Europe is right to be worried — and to want to play hard ball. The world in 2015 is messy, chaotic and often violent, with no clear centre of power. In Europe, as Russia flexes its muscles over Ukraine, many decry the end of the post-World War security order.In Asia, re-emerging nations are clamouring for recognition, jostling each other to gain the upper hand as regional and global leaders. Everywhere, international norms and institutions built in the last century are under stress, and seemingly unable to cope with the increasing demands and insecurity of the 21st century.Juncker has said a European army would restore the EU’s foreign policy standing and show it is serious about defending its values. And he insisted that it would not be in competition with Nato, the US-led Western military alliance.“With its own army, Europe could react more credibly to the threat to peace in a member state or in a neighbouring state,” the Commission chief said in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt.He added: “One wouldn’t have a European army to deploy it immediately. But a common European army would convey a clear message to Russia that we are serious about defending our European values.”Juncker’s proposal does not come out of the blue. The EU has long harboured the idea of an army and has been working hard to forge a credible common security and defence policy for several decades.European military missions are active in the Balkans, Africa and parts of Asia. The soldiers are not there, however, to fight but to monitor elections, keep the peace and manage conflicts.Also, the EU already has battle groups that are manned on a rotational basis and meant to be available as a rapid reaction force. But they have never been used in a crisis.Finally, Europe’s defence is assured by Nato. Put bluntly, if push comes to shove, the US will come to Europe’s assistance with its military might.The timing of the latest proposal is certainly linked to criticism of what many view as Europe’s lacklustre response to Russia’s annexing of Crimea last year and support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.The scene is clearly set for another long and painful — and distracting — intra-European debate. For starters, Germany likes the idea, Britain does not.German Defence Minster Ursula von der Leyen, underlined in an interview that “our future as Europeans will at some point be with a European army.”The UK government spokesman has warned, however that “our position is crystal clear that defence is a national, not an EU responsibility and that there is no prospect of that position changing and no prospect of a European army.”Geoffrey Van Orden, a conservative member of the European Parliament has accused Juncker of living in a “fantasy world”. “If our nations faced a serious security threat, who would we want to rely on — Nato or the EU? The question answers itself,” he said.Nato isn’t too happy either. The civilian and military heads of Nato have said they would welcome increased EU defence spending but cautioned the bloc against duplicating efforts.Analysts say the fundamental problem with the proposal is that, without full political union, it has no chance of becoming a credible force. So long as fierce national rivalries exist at the heart of policymaking, a common army would quickly find itself reduced to a state of impotence if required to deal with any threat to an EU state.EU member states do not often see eye to eye on major global security issues. During the 2011 Libya campaign, for example, Britain and France played a leading role in the air campaign, while Germany’s staunch opposition meant that Berlin wouldn’t even provide air-to-air refuelling tankers.More recently, deep divisions have arisen over how to tackle Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Ukraine, with Germany and Italy reluctant to support the economic sanctions advocated by Britain and its allies.Many argue that instead of getting caught up in acrimonious debates on a European army, the EU should focus on intensifying member states’ defence cooperation.“Whatever was Jean-Claude Juncker thinking when he called for the creation of an EU army? The notion may have appeal in Germany and perhaps in Luxembourg, too. Elsewhere, it serves only to supply Europhobes with more evidence of Brussels’s reflexive urge to expand its power,” said Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.Whitney may be right. But Juncker is in no mood to back down. And if Germany, the EU’s most influential member state likes the idea — and France opts in — one day there will be a European army — of sorts.

View From Abroad: Getting excited about Asean (Originally published 28/02/2015 at dawn.com)

As China’s economy slows and Indian growth remains uncertain, global attention has switched to the end-year creation of a tariff-free 10-nation Southeast Asian “single market” as the newest and most exciting facet of rising Asia.The excitement is justified. Taken together, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have a population of 620 million, a growth rate of five per cent and a combined gross domestic product of almost $2.5 trillion. A growing middle class across the region has emerged as an avid consumer of foreign and domestic goods and services. Not surprisingly, global business is enthusiastic. Trade is booming and foreign investments into the region are rising.Significantly, even as they strive to get elements of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) in place by year-end, countries in the region are already crafting an even more ambitious “post-2015 vision” for further integration. The ambition is to move beyond trade and economics to focus on still largely incomplete plans for building a political and security community and preparing the groundwork for stronger social and cultural integration. One visionary goal is to create a common Asean time zone — as opposed to the current three spanning the Asean region — to facilitate cross-border business and finance.The AEC roadmap includes four pillars: a single market and production base (including the free flow of goods, services, skilled labour, capital and investment), a competitive economic region, equitable economic development and integration into the global economy.But challenges remain. First, don’t expect the AEC to enter into force with a “big bang” on Jan 1, 2016. Not all elements of the single market will or can be in place on schedule and while progress is being made to reduce trade barriers and ease investment, as well as ensure the free flow of goods, services, investment and skilled labour, the devil is in the detail — and in enforcement and implementation. An Asean Scorecard which keeps countries up to date on progress on the AEC says about 80pc of the work on completing the AEC has been done. But Asean experts acknowledge that the remaining 20pc covers “the most difficult” tasks.Malaysian Trade Minister Mustapa Mohamed, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the Southeast Asian bloc this year, has said the full impact of integration may not be felt until perhaps 2020, recognising that there are border issues, customs, immigration and different regulations, which still need to be tackled. Businesses must still navigate a complex landscape of different product standards and regulations that make it hard to sell across the region and hamper the ability of new companies to enter the market.Surprisingly, many Asean businesses appear to know little of the AEC’s pros and cons. Vietnamese officials said recently that 60pc of their country’s business community “had no idea what the AEC is”. A survey by the Singapore Business Federation in January found two out of five firms were completely unaware of it. Yet establishing the AEC will impact positively on many industries, including electronics, car parts and components, as well as chemicals, textiles, and clothing. Once completed, the hope is that the AEC will boost intra-Asean trade which currently stands at a modest 24pc of the region’s overall trade flows.Second, Asean still has much to do to connect with citizens. Increasingly vocal civil society representatives are adamant that Asean must live up to its goal of becoming “people-centred” and less elitist. In contrast to earlier years and outdated conventional wisdom, Asean civil society is proactive and striving to become deeply involved in efforts to ensure stronger human rights protection and promotion across the region. In a recent statement, the Asean People’s Forum (APF) — Asean’s largest civil society group — listed a number of problems in the region, among them grave human rights violations, corruption and poor governance. Intimidation of human rights defenders was also raised.There are signs that governments are paying heed. As current Asean chair Malaysia has indicated that one of its main priorities will be to engage Asean citizens and to promote greater understanding of Asean initiatives and projects. “We also hope to steer Asean closer to the people of Southeast Asia: to make this institution part of people’s daily lives, by creating a truly people-centred Asean,” says Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. The rhetoric has to be turned into action, however.Third, for all the hype, Asean still has to deal with obstacles created by economic nationalism, protectionism and resistance to foreign-owned industries which persists in many member countries. Malaysia’s trade minister Mohamed has said he will not avoid the politically sensitive task of tackling protectionism in Asean such as local content requirements, mandatory product standards and import restrictions.More generally, maritime disputes in the South China Sea as well as incidents of religious sectarianism, rising intolerance, human trafficking and corruption are further challenges to surmount as are differences in levels of development and political and economic models among Asean states. Additionally, there is concern that Indonesia under President Jokowi may be too focused on the country’s domestic questions to play its traditional leadership role in Asean. Meanwhile Indonesian business continues to be wary of opening up the country’s markets to Asean competitors.Looking aheadThe Nay Pi Taw declaration on Asean’s post-2015 vision adopted last November sets out an impressive agenda for the region’s future. While deepening economic integration and connectivity remains on the agenda, Asean leaders have identified external relations and the building of political/security and socio-cultural communities as a priority.There is no shortage of interesting ideas: leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia in recent weeks have been pushing for a common time zone arguing that this would help businesses and allow for coordinated opening times for banks and stock markets. An Asean Open Skies Agreement is designed to create a single aviation market and allow for more flights, which will increase trade, investment and tourism. There are suggestions to set up an Asean regional infrastructure fund. Plans for strengthening the Asean Secretariat and improving coordination among member governments are being studied by a high-level task force. East Timor’s Asean membership is under internal discussion.Asean is a business opportunity for the West but also for other Asian countries — a fact that India, China and Japan are more than aware of.

View From Abroad: Europe needs lucid advice on diversity, not US grandstanding (Originally published 21/02/2015 at dawn.com)

Pity embattled European Union leaders. Not only are they grappling with tough-guy Russian President Vladimir Putin, striving to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire in Ukraine while also preventing Greece from exiting the eurozone, they now also have the United States — and Israel — grandstanding and haranguing them on how to reduce racism and make Europe a better and more inclusive place.Europe certainly needs advice on dealing with immigrant communities and the rise in anti-Semitism across the bloc is cause for great concern. But reading the barrage of criticism levelled at European leaders over the last few days I could not help thinking about people in glasshouses not throwing stones at others.Neither the US nor Israel is in a position to give Europe lessons on dealing with minority communities. Neither, by the way, are any Muslim-majority countries whose track record on dealing with minority populations is quite simply abysmal.True, Europe needs to engage in some deep soul-searching on just what kind of a society and future it wants: one in which “foreigners” are treated with contempt, where asylum seekers are allowed to drown as they head for European shores, where the Far Right appears to speak for all of Europe or a more open, diverse and multicultural/religious/ethnic place where all people feel at home.What Europe needs therefore are thoughtful, well-reasoned and lucid advice and counsel on developing new pro-minority policies, ensuring better integration and combating the toxic rhetoric of xenophobic Far Right parties, which currently dominate Europe’s societal and political discourse.Such advice can come from all sources. But make no mistake: this is a global challenge, not just a European one. Such a debate is necessary in most countries, including the US and Israel — and all Muslim ones. When it comes to accepting difference and diversity, all countries are sinners.Discriminatory treatment is not just reserved for those who practise a different religion, come from a different ethnic group or just simply look different but also for those with physical disabilities, different political ideas, a different sexual orientation or just who don’t “fit in”. In some countries, just being a woman means being treated as an inferior being.“Good” countries are aware of the challenges and hammer out — and implement — laws which ban such discriminatory treatment. They develop an inclusive narrative and make sure that criminals are brought to justice. They strive to make everyone feel at home.“Bad” countries do the opposite. They may be aware of the problem but often pretend that their nation is perfect. They don’t stand up for the victims of racism/discrimination. There is no focus on accountability or securing justice.Yes, that is an over-simplification. But so is the advice that Europe has received recently. US presidential hopeful Jeb Bush recently told foreign policy experts that America under his rule would welcome immigrants. Unlike Europe, Bush said that “we come in 34 different flavours” and “we have the potential to be young and dynamic again”.US Vice President Joe Biden told last week’s three-day White House summit on countering violent extremism that Europe was vulnerable to radicalised attacks because immigrants in the EU are less integrated into the local societies compared with the US. “I’m not suggesting ... that I think America has all the answers here. We just have a lot more experience,” Biden said and stressed that “inclusion counts”.Bush and Biden are right in some aspects: America could some years ago claim to be less hysterical about Islam than Europe. But the Tea Party and Fox News are proof that the anti-Muslim diatribes are now the same on both sides of the Atlantic. That’s no surprise given the transatlantic cross-fertilisation of “ideas” on Islam-bashing under way.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meanwhile has made a much-publicised call for European Jews to move to Israel after recent terrorist killings in Denmark. Significantly, his views are prompting a backlash from not only European leaders but Jews themselves. Commentators argue that for many Jews, such remarks ignore, and even insult, the acceptance they feel in the countries where they and their families have often lived for generations.“We are a little confused by this call, which is basically like a call to surrender to terror,” said Arie Zuckerman, senior executive at the Eur­o­pean Jewish Congress. “It may send a wrong message to the lea­ders of Europe.” According to Rabbi Menachem Margolin, “to come out with this kind of statement after each attack is unacceptable.”Not surprisingly many European Muslims feel similarly irritated when leaders from Muslim countries try and give advice to them.Better advice has come from Francois Crepeau, a UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, who has said that the EU needs to change its migrant policy as it doesn’t answer to the problems which are emerging. “A common narrative celebrating mobility and diversity, recognising real labour market needs, as well as the needs of migrants, based on human rights guarantees and access to justice, must be developed,” said Crépeau.The UN Rapporteur is right. European leaders must act urgently to stop the rise in Islamophobia and build more inclusive societies. They should stop pandering to the Far Right. More humane policies are needed towards the endless waves of asylum seekers stuck in Lampedusa and other centres. Above all, attitudes to change.Proof that this can happen is provided by the new Greek government led by Alexis Tsipras. Greece has seen a surge in racist assaults in recent years, with the Golden Dawn fascist party intimidating immigrants and human rights advocates.The new government has pledged to close down detention centres for illegal immigrants that have long been criticised by rights groups as inhuman.Tasia Christodoulopoulou, a veteran human rights attorney who is now Greece’s first-ever minister for immigration, has said Athens has to move quickly to improve the poor reputation it has acquired handling those fleeing poverty and deprivation.Tsipras may be getting flak from other European leaders when it comes to his eurozone politics. But his EU partners could learn a thing or two about trying to build a better society from Greece.

View From Abroad: European lessons for Asian security (Originally published 14/02/2015 at dawn.com)

The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.

View From Abroad: Islamic nations should not meddle in European Muslims lives (Originally published 17/01/2015 at dawn.com)

It must be said loud and clear and repeatedly: governments in Islamic countries must stop meddling in the lives of European Muslims.Many of the 20 million or so Muslims in the European Union may still hold passports of their countries of birth, in addition to their European nationalities. They may also have families in their countries of origin, harbour fond memories of lives (or their parents’ lives) there and retain a link to these nations.But make no mistake: the concerns, priorities, needs — and values — of European Muslims are very different from those living elsewhere, not just in Muslim-majority countries but also in North America.There is an exception to this: radicalised Muslims across the globe are being financed, trained, incited and equipped by Wahabi/Salafi extremist groups with their origins in Saudi Arabia and a few other Middle East nations.Wahabi tentacles reach deep into many European Muslim and American Muslim communities just as they do across the world, including Pakistan. And the results are the same: radicalisation, extremism and — in some cases — terrorism in the name of ‘jihad’.But the majority of European Muslims — especially those born and bred in Europe or those who have made Europe their permanent home — have long stopped obsessing about what happens in Turkey, Algeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Egypt. They care, certainly, for these and other countries and can even help on both the political and economic fronts. But their lives and future are here in Europe. Quite simply: they are European.And just like other Europeans, their focus is on jobs, education, housing and security. Yes, European Muslims sometimes face discrimination and racism — and certainly there is a rise in anti-Islam feeling in the wake of the Paris tragedy. The rise of the toxic Far Right is a cause for concern and anxiety.But no, mostly, Muslims in Europe don’t want to go ‘back home’. Europe is their home.They certainly don’t need the ‘support’ and ‘sympathy’ of non-European Muslim leaders and governments who know nothing of Europe and whose comments — possibly well-meant — can make things worse.Take the justifiable and widespread derision at the presence of leaders from many Muslim countries at the demonstration in Paris last week in favour of freedom of expression and against terrorism, following the murder of 12 people, including two Muslims, at the Charlie Hebdo magazine.Yes, it was hypocritical and ironic, even amusing. Many of the male leaders (I did not see any Muslim female leaders) who walked solemnly in Paris are not well-known for their defence of human rights, freedom of expression and commitment to diversity. They engage in torture, repression and worse. Many support extremist groups. They clamp down hard on dissent.Some of these leaders deserve special mention. In Brussels this week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a strong and very valid call for an “inclusive European identity”, arguing passionately that Turks and Muslims in Europe should not be the target of discrimination. Just as he had marched in Paris, non-Muslim European leaders should show the same solidarity when mosques are burned, he argued.Quite true. If only Turkey did not have one of the largest number of journalists in prison, had not arrested some of the country’s top journalists working for the Zaman newspaper and did not have more than 70 Turkish journalists currently being investigated for referring to the corruption allegations against close associates of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa marched in Paris, seemingly oblivious to the fact that 12 Bahraini journalists are currently detained in Bahrain, the youngest only 15.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to France had the gall to be in the demonstration while his government has publicly flogged blogger Raef Badawi for ‘insulting Islam’ and sentenced him to 10 years in prison. And there are more floggings to come, up to 1,000 lashes.Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was also there although his government has jailed three Al-Jazeera journalists. The blacklist also included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.It’s not just their presence at these marches that irks, it’s also their comments on European Muslims’ lives. Yes, many of the European Muslim community were offended and disturbed by the Charlie Hebdo cartoons. But many were not. And those who do object make their feelings known through court cases, articles and discussions.And if they really don’t like it in Europe, Ahmed Aboutaleb, the Muslim mayor of Rotterdam, recently argued that they can leave.“It’s incomprehensible that you can be against freedom like that. But if you don’t like that freedom, pack your bags and leave,” Aboutaleb said to the Huffington Post, adding: “If you can’t find your place in the Netherlands, in the way we want to build a society together, leave.”Originally from Morocco and the son of an imam, Aboutaleb moved to the Netherlands in 1976 when he was 15 years old. Since becoming mayor of Rotterdam in 2009, he has broken new ground for minorities and Muslims across Europe.Europe has many examples of well-integrated, tax-paying, peaceful and successful European Muslims. There are Muslim politicians, business leaders, artists, doctors and lawyers. They may sometimes face prejudice — young European Muslims in France but also elsewhere are disenfranchised and angry. But mostly Muslims make a positive contribution to Europe’s diverse societies.If they are honest, many admit that they are better off here in Europe than in Mirpurkhas or Anatolia.Muslims need to strike a seminal “win-win” big bargain with the countries they call home. They should leave no doubt about their allegiance and loyalty to Europe, their commitment to universal values of tolerance, democracy and human rights.In exchange, they must be recognised and celebrated as fully fledged, active and constructive European citizens. Those who commit terrorist attacks should not be labelled ‘Muslims’ — they are murderers and criminals and should be tried as such.There is no room in such a social contract for meddling by non-Europeans, however well-intentioned. Despite the toxic Far-Right messages, the unfortunate media hype and the anger in the wake of the Paris attacks, Europe is a multi-cultural and diverse continent — even if sometimes, Europeans forget it.

View from Abroad: Peshawar, Paris, Pegida and me (Originally published 10/01/2015 at dawn.com)

Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does.On the second day of my long-awaited trip to Pakistan in December last year, I woke up to the news of the horrible massacre of school children in Peshawar.Like most people, I wept for the innocent lost lives, the bereaved families and a once honourable country which has lost its path, becoming mired in ever-more indecent violence and barbarism.As I made my way home to Brussels a few days into 2015, I was preparing to write about Pegida, Germany’s nascent and very toxic ‘anti-Islamisation’ movement which is making headlines across the globe.But then tragedy struck again as terrorists, unfortunately and wrongly, described as Islamists gunned down 12 people at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, the Paris-based satirical magazine.As France and the world mourned the dead and worried about the freedom of expression, diversity and tolerance, I asked myself: how many tears can you shed? How long and often can you weep? Will the hatred, violence and extremism ever end?I don’t know the answers but I know that whether we recognise the link or not, Peshawar, Paris and Pegida are, tragically, connected.I know that money, encouragement and support for the extremists whether in the Middle East, Pakistan, Asia or Europe can be traced to extremist Wahabi state and non-state actors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.I know that Far Right groups in Europe and the United States are spreading a hysterical and toxic anti-Islam message, gaining traction and popularity as the economic slowdown persists and unemployment continues to rise.I know that politicians in Europe, the US and the Muslim world are unwilling and unable to rise to the challenge of building a strong counter-narrative of tolerance and discrimination.I know that 2015 is going to be a defining, testing year for humanity’s ability to live together in peace while accepting differences in religion, colour and culture.I know that the violence-loving, gun-toting men and (some) women who kill, maim and torture are outside the boundaries of any religion. There is no “Islamic State”, only murderers and criminals. There is no “good” Taliban, just blood-thirsty barbarians.I know that just as is the case for freedom-loving people in Pakistan, life for Muslims in Europe is going to get tougher in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks.But I also know that sanity and good sense will probably and hopefully prevail in both Pakistan and Europe.In the end, it’s not the politicians who will stop the rot. It is the people, the ordinary men, women and young people who say “enough is enough” to violence and intolerance.I know it is possible. As we visited Lahore only hours before the massacre in Peshawar, girls and boys came up to us to talk and take pictures, giggling and chuckling, proud of Pakistan and their heritage.The Badshahi Mosque and the Lahore Fort sparkled in the sun but it was the laughter and the cheeky jokes of the young men and women that warmed our souls.This was Pakistan the way it really is, the way it should always be. Hours later as we tried to come to grips with the tragedy in Peshawar, I took solace in the hope I had seen in the eyes of the young people of Lahore.In Europe too, it is the people who will stop the continent from descending into a dangerous downward spiral of anti-Muslim sentiment.True, the Far Right is gaining momentum. Talk of a “clash of civilisations” is rife. But equally those who want a multicultural and tolerant Europe are speaking out.Pegida gatherings have been dwarfed by massive counter-demonstrations in Dresden, Berlin and Cologne where people have spoken in support of immigrants and condemned intolerance.The famous Cologne cathedral and Berlin’s Brandenburg gate have switched off lighting as a sign of protest against xenophobic rallies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against hate and discrimination.In the aftermath of the Paris killings, European governments will certainly clamp down hard on radicals and would-be terrorists. They are right to do so. But in the medium and long-term, European politicians must also focus on the compelling need to integrate and accept their Muslim citizens.Retribution and revenge must not be allowed to take centre stage. If it does, it will play into the hands of the extremists.This is a dangerous moment. Yes, it is war. But it not a conflict between Islam and the West. The battle being fought so cruelly is between people who believe in humanity and criminals and terrorists who, quite simply, want to kill.

Shada Islam quoted in 'Europe Muted on CIA Torture Report Amid Islamic State Conflict' (The Washington Post with Bloomberg 10/12/2014)

European governments gave a muted response to a U.S. report on Central Intelligence Agency torture, declining the opportunity to criticize the Obama administration amid concerns over current security threats.

While China accused the U.S. of hypocrisy, the European Union and the U.K. moderated their response to the findings of the report by Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

“There’s a deep reluctance to open old wounds just as we face the challenge of Islamic State and parts of the Middle East go up in flames,” Shada Islam, Director of Policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said in a phone interview. “Many European governments were complicit or at least turned a blind eye to what the CIA was doing.”

The report, which focused on the agency’s “enhanced interrogation techniques” in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, revealed that U.S.-held terrorism suspects received more brutal treatment than previously known.

For the full article, visit http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NGBYTJ6K50YD01-0BB8G4EV8H8HOEQDREHOMQHNBP

View from Abroad: Europe waits for trade talks but Modi ‘looks East’ (Originally published 22/11/2014 at dawn.com)

These are busy times for Asian leaders — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the busiest.Last week as he criss-crossed Asia, clinching business deals, attracting much-needed investments and building strategic alliances, Modi found time for a quick meeting with the European Union’s outgoing European Council President Herman Van Rompuy to underline that the “EU should take advantage of the new economic environment in India”.The two men apparently agreed that the United Nations should hold an annual international “Yoga Day”.But not much was apparently said on the EU-India free trade agreement that the two sides have been trying to negotiate for the last seven years and which now seems to have run into the ground.EU officials are still hoping that the negotiations will be back on track soon. But the Indian leader is too busy looking elsewhere.As of this autumn, Modi has his nation and the rest of Asia abuzz with his determination to inject new life into India’s “Look East” policy which, following his incessant Asian travels, including recent talks with Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) and other Asian leaders in Myanmar, has morphed into what Modi proudly describes as a “Look East — and Act East” policy.India’s decision to step up its game in Asia is no surprise. As an emerging power with “great power” ambitions, India has no option but to seek a stronger role in a volatile neighbourhood and a region marked by often-changing geopolitical rivalries and alliances. Also, tapping into the region’s dynamic economies is critical for India’s own growth and reform agenda.Certainly, China has the funds needed to help finance India’s infrastructure requirements while Japan and South Korea have the technical experience and expertise. South-east Asian markets are important for Indian investors and exporters. Sustainable peace with Pakistan may still be a long way off but is essential for India’s development and peace and stability in the region.While in Myanmar, Modi made the headlines by pushing his “Make in India” campaign, which aims to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub, by cutting red tape, upgrading infrastructure and making it easier for companies to do business. Modi promised to implement long-delayed plans to boost trade and deepen ties with Asean so that current trade flows could rise from $75 billion today to $100 billion by 2015.In fact, the policy is not new. India has long spoken of developing a “Look East” policy, but has lagged behind China in forging ties with emerging economies in South-East Asia. Tackling China’s influence on Asean and South Asia is still a challenge but India benefits from the fact that Japan, Asean and others in the region are certainly looking to reduce their economic dependence on Beijing by reaching out to Delhi.Indian commentators also underline that Modi used the Asean meeting to articulate for the first time India’s intent to enhance “balance” in the Asia Pacific region, arguing that the word was carefully chosen to reflect India’s shared concerns with other Asian countries about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.Interestingly, Indian defence cooperation is being stepped up with several Indian Ocean states including Sri Lanka and Maldives. India will supply four naval patrol vessels to Hanoi as part of $100 million Line of Credit signed last month. The two countries have also decided to ramp up cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon, civil nuclear energy and space.Given Modi’s focus on the Asia-Pacific, the EU’s new leaders may have to wait a long time before he signals a real interest in upgrading bilateral ties.It is no secret that the EU-India strategic partnership needs a shot in the arm and that trade and investment flows are much too modest. But negotiations for an India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) — the most important issue on the bilateral agenda — have lasted for seven years, with no end in sight. And hopes that New Delhi would put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the elusive deal have not materialised, with differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights continuing to impede progress.The pact could be signed in 2015 — but only if both sides can summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.Modi and the EU’s new leaders face the uphill task of taking the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level, a move that would benefit both sides.In addition to the geopolitical value of such a decision, European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.To inject momentum into the relationship, both sides will need to make an effort. EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will therefore be crucial in signalling a fresh start in relations.

View from Abroad: EU must engage urgently with China (Originally published 15/11/2014 at dawn.com)

China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.

View from Abroad: Asia’s affair with US leaves Europe out in the cold (Originally published 8/11/2014 at dawn.com)

America continues to loom large over the Asia-Pacific region. Whether it’s about trade, politics or security, Asian eyes tend to focus almost solely on Washington. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines feel safer under the US security umbrella. India wants to forge a stronger relationship with Washington. Even China, the region’s most economically vibrant and powerful nation, seeks a special “great power” relationship with America.Hence the focus on the US-led Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit opening in two-day Beijing on Nov 10 and the East Asia Summit from Nov 13-14 in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. A few days later, the spotlight will move to Brisbane, Australia, for the G20 summit.Certainly, the APEC agenda is impressive, with leaders expected to agree to a study on negotiating a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). But Asia’s enduring affair with America leaves only a small space for an Asia-Europe relationship.Significantly, Europeans will be absent from the jamboree in Beijing. The EU has been pressing for entry into the EAS which now also includes the US and Russia but Asians are in no hurry to open the door.Some European countries and the European Commission will, however, participate in the G20 meeting.And yet, there is more to the Asia-Europe relationship than meets the eye. America’s so-called “pivot” to Asia may have grabbed the headlines, but the EU has spent the last three and a half years upping its own game in Asia.The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Milan last month is a case in point. The summit may not have made headlines worldwide but over 50 European and Asian leaders made an array of pledges on boosting growth, continuing economic and financial reform and building stronger Europe-Asia connectivity.Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit — “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” — allowed for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial non-traditional security threats linked to food, water, and energy security.In addition, the meeting brought back much of the informality that marked the first few ASEM summits by including a “retreat” session during which leaders — with only one aide in attendance — were able to have a free-flowing discussion on regional and international issues, including Ebola and the threat posed by the so-called Islamic State.Attendance was exceptionally high, with all key Asian and European leaders — apart from the new Indonesian president and the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers — taking part in the sessions.Even before they meet in Beijing, there was a quick handshake in Milan between estranged neighbours Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Japan’s Shinzo Abe. Russian President Vladimir Putin was in attendance. Also, the EU finally held a long-awaited first-ever summit with Asean leaders. Kazakhstan and Croatia joined ASEM, bringing the total number of ASEM participants to 53.Leaders agreed on an ambitious programme until 2016, the year when ASEM, under Mongolian chairmanship, will celebrate its 20th anniversary. Countries agreed to work in smaller groups or clusters on 16 “tangible cooperation areas” including disaster management, renewable energy, higher education, connectivity and information technology.The challenge is to keep up the momentum generated in Milan. The good news is that ASEM’s resilience has allowed it to survive many upheavals since its launch in Bangkok in 1996. Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important ASEM meetings.Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo ops. The current mood is positive as ASEM seeks a stronger focus on content. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. Closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts is also essential.In the future ASEM needs an even sharper focus on growth and jobs, combating extremism and tackling hard and soft security issues. Women in both Asia and Europe face many societal and economic challenges. Freedom of expression is under attack in both regions. Populist parties and nationalism are becoming a threat to diversity and societal peace in both regions.Finally, ASEM faces the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership. ASEM’s 20th anniversary in 2016 should set the Asia-Europe partnership on a new and more dynamic track — that could perhaps generate the kind of excitement that APEC does.

View from Abroad: Keep watching Jokowi (Originally published 1/11/2014 at dawn.com)

You heard it here first. Two years ago, I predicted in this column (Hope amidst the madness Sept 29, 2012) that Joko Widodo, the then newly-elected governor of Jakarta, was poised to become the next president of Indonesia.On Oct 20, that prediction came true as Widodo — better known as Jokowi — became the leader of the world’s most populous Muslim majority country, fourth largest democracy and an impressive Asian economic power house.In 2012, I remember coming back from a long study tour in Indonesia where practically everyone I met had waxed lyrical about the governor of Jakarta. I was intrigued — and then I was convinced. Jokowi is special.Jokowi and Indonesia matter. They matter to Indonesia’s 250 million citizens, to the wider south-east Asian region — and also to an increasingly chaotic and depressingly violent Muslim world.Much has been written about Indonesia’s new head of state: by all accounts, he is low-key, soft-spoken, dedicated, hard-working and, in a country once ruled by the army and an unsavoury elite, he is “a man truly of the people”.He is therefore an unusual and outstanding political phenomenon. His origins are modest. He was drawn to politics late in life. In a country where family and background counts, he breaks the rules by having no army or political family connections.Comparisons have been made to US President Barack Obama. Both men emerged “out of nowhere” to lead their nations, caught the popular imagination by breaking with the past, reached out to young people and brought a message of change and hope to a tired nation.Look carefully, and the two men even share a striking physical resemblance.As Jokowi takes power, there are concerns that he may also run afoul of an old guard which is reluctant to cede power and privilege to a less skilful and less experienced political newcomer.But there is a difference. Obama heads an economy which is just beginning to sputter to life after years of stagnation. America is desperate to look inwards even as it is pulled screaming and kicking into new military adventures. Public support for Obama is eroding fast.Jokowi, in contrast, has become the leader of one of Asia’s most exciting countries and dynamic economies. Indonesia still faces an array of political, economic and societal challenges — and none of these will disappear under the new president’s watch.Significantly, what happens in Indonesia will not just stay in Indonesia — it will have strong repercussions across the country itself, the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) and a curious Muslim world.Jokowi’s election is hopefully a fatal blow to the old-style politicians like Prabowo Subianto — a former general once married to the daughter of Indonesian dictator Suharto — who was also a candidate for president and refused at first to acknowledge defeat.In a region not noted for its espousal of democratic values and human rights, Indonesia stands out for having successfully ensured the transfer of power from one elected president to another.For many years, Indonesia has engaged in a massive soft power exercise of trying to export democracy to neighbouring nations, including Myanmar. Jakarta has taken the lead in trying to inject some real “people power” into Asean.Finally, Jokowi offers welcome relief in a Muslim world dominated by dictators, monarchs and unsavoury politicians.Still, it won’t be easy. Jokowi may have claimed the presidency, but he does not have a majority in parliament which last month controversially blocked the direct election of governors, mayors and district chiefs, a move which could prevent the rise of figures outside the political establishment, like Jokowi. The law is expected to be repealed — but it signals the tough political battle ahead for the new president.It’s been a good few years for the Indonesian economy — but growth is slowing down as the commodity boom wanes and exports decline. The government is under pressure to cut its generous fuel subsidies, a move which could spark civil unrest.Indonesia has not suffered a major terrorist strike since 2009 when a pair of luxury Jakarta hotels were targeted by suicide bombers but its brand of moderate and tolerant Islam is under threat from extremist forces. The country is trying hard to fight the spread of Wahabi Islam. Fighting corruption remains a challenge across the country.Most significantly, the new president faces the challenge of distancing himself from Megawati Sukarnoputri, a one-time president of the Indonesia and the daughter of the country’s first post-independence president, Sukarno.As chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which put up Jokowi as presidential candidate, Megawati still wields enormous influence and has used it to determine the members of the new president’s cabinet.Indonesian newspapers warn that the new government is the result of compromises between Jokowi and Megawati and that contrary to expectations that the new president would appoint a team of technocrats, at least 21 ministers in the 34-member cabinet are either representatives of political parties or have links to political figures.Most damagingly, is the inclusion of Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter as a coordinating minister for human resources development and culture.“We can only imagine that the shoe is too big for her,” warned the Jakarta Post.“We are disappointed because we had high expectations,” the newspaper warned. However, there is praise for the appointment of eight female ministers, including the country’s first-ever woman foreign minister, Retno Marsudi.As I said in an earlier column, the world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21st century power. And they are watching Jokowi.

View from Abroad: A 21st century Silk Road (Originally published 25/10/2014 at dawn.com)

I have been in China for five days and my brain is on fire. Perceptions, discussions, confrontations crowd my mind, jostling for space, demanding attention. My Chinese colleagues have so much to tell me about their country’s new priorities and they want to know so much about the future of Europe. We discuss. We argue.

The debates go on and on at the round-table meeting in Changsha in Hunan province that we are attending. As day turns into night, the debates not only dominate my waking hours, they enter my dreams.Europe and China have much to talk about. We are so different and yet we have much in common. There is the shared challenge of encouraging sustainable growth, tackling problems in our respective neighbourhoods, dealing with an ageing population, making sure we eliminate inequalities.But much also separates us. Europe believes in democracy, elections and human rights. China wants western countries to stop pontificating and giving Beijing lessons on democracy. The focus should be on governance, not on elections and other the rituals of democracy, one Chinese academic tells us.“We have to treat each other equally ... the West should stop looking down on us,” another Chinese colleague insists at the round-table discussion between European and Chinese think tanks.Indeed, much has changed — and is changing — in Beijing. President Xi Jinping has embarked on an unprecedented national reform drive, demanding an end to corruption, stronger implementation of the rule of law, a rebalancing of the economy from investments and exports to domestic consumption.And for the last year, President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang have been promoting the ambitious idea of a Silk Road which would connect China to Europe, weaving its way across Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe on the one hand while also building connections through a maritime route which would include the Maldives and Sri Lanka and many South-East Asian states.Full disclosure: I confess that I am completely fascinated, intrigued by the initiative. As a young girl growing up in Pakistan, I spent hours reading of the adventures of the intrepid men and women who plyed the Silk Road, connecting towns, industries and people.Exotic looking Chinese traders, with their bundles of silk, satins and brocades, made their way to Islamabad, persuading my mother and aunts to buy their goods. I watched from the sidelines, amused by the good-natured bargaining, the chuckles resulting in mutually satisfactory transactions.Years later, I went up the Silk Road — or rather the silk track — to Hunza and Gilgit and felt my heart almost break at the exquisite beauty of the landscape. Many hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani workers died while building the road in such a hostile land. Their sacrifice was enormous, their memories preserved in plaques along the route.That was then. The Road was about romance and adventure. Today it’s about commerce. China’s new concept of the Silk Road has little to do with romance — and a lot to do with business.Still it is a visionary idea which is getting much attention in Asia and Europe. And so it should. As they did when they came out with their ‘China Dream’ concept a year or so ago, the ‘Silk Road’ initiative is a work in progress.Beijing has yet to articulate its ambitions in detail. “We are not yet talking about a strategy,” says a Chinese colleague.Clearly, China wants to use the Road to increase its trade relations with countries along the route. Beijing is interested in Central Asia’s energy resources. It wants to counterbalance Russia’s political influence in the region.Also, the Silk Road provides a strong counter move to America’s much-touted ‘pivot’ to Asia and to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement that the US wants to negotiate with countries in the region but without China.As I listen to the discussion, I am convinced that this is an idea whose time has come — again. China has the political clout to make it happen. And it has the money to finance many of the projects.Still, it won’t be easy. The 21st century Silk Road will not only allow goods to be trade freely across borders, it could also facilitate the cross-frontier movement of drugs, arms and terrorists.As such, the proposal needs to be developed with care and caution.As I prepare to leave Changsha, my head is still spinning with new information and ideas. I dream of ancient bazaars and long, winding roads through mountains and plains. The Silk Road as envisioned by Beijing may be based on national self interest and, given the challenges, may never see the light of day.But the vision of an interconnected world it articulates is worth preserving — and developing.

View from Abroad: Western nightmares are just bad dreams (Originally published 19/10/2014 at dawn.com)

It's the stuff of Western nightmares: imagine if, one day, a strong China and a weak but assertive Russia “gang up” against the United States and Europe, winning more friends and allies and imposing their writ on the rest of the world?The recent high profile meetings between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been watched carefully — and fretfully — in all Western capitals with uneasy policymakers seeking to understand if this is just a passing show of affection or if the two countries are planning to build a more solid partnership.Beijing has made clear that it has no intention of being part of any geopolitical power play being hatched by Moscow. China’s interests are global. Indeed before he met Putin, Li was in Germany striking two billion euro worth of business deals. He then headed to Italy for more headline-grabbing commercial overtures.Beijing’s standard line is that it has no allies, only friends. That’s not how Russia views the world. Russia in contrast is under Western sanctions. The EU is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas while the Nato military alliance talks menacingly about Russian actions in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.Some warn it is the beginning of a second Cold War. Clearly, it isn’t. The multipolar world today is a very different place from what it was in the Cold War years.Still, some thing is afoot. The Russians are working overtime to woo the Chinese. Beijing is clearly interested in accessing more Russian oil and gas, providing Moscow with new markets as Europe diversifies away from Russian energy. Some 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding are reported to be signed during Li’s visit to Moscow, including in areas related to high-speed transit and finance. China is also eager to supply Russia with fruit and vegetables, products that Moscow is no longer importing from Europe.Western attention is focused on Russian-Chinese cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which some in the West view as a potential competitor for Nato. And the recent decision to launch the BRICS bank is seen as a joint challenge by Russia and China to the post-war liberal order and the supremacy of the Bretton Woods institutions.Both China and Russia are often on the same side on tackling global flashpoints, eschewing military intervention unless sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.There’s no doubt, however, that while it may want to stay friends and do business with Moscow, China has no interest in being seen as Russia’s best friend. As friendships go, in fact, the focus in many envious Western capitals is on the ‘special relationship’ between China and Germany.While in Berlin, Li and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed deals worth approximately US$18.1 billion, covering cooperation in areas including agriculture, automotive, telecom, healthcare and education.Li requested that Germany help to relax the EU’s high-tech export restrictions to China and continue expanding bilateral trade and investment. He further stated that the two countries should continue working together on feasibility studies concerning the proposed China-EU Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed guidelines covering 110 cooperative agreements over the next five to 10 years.At the Hamburg Summit organised by Germany’s top industrialists that was attended by Premier Li the message was clear: China is not only the the biggest market for German companies, it is also a growing one. China’s huge national reform programme agenda, opens up exciting new export and investment opportunities for German — and other European — companies. Discussions focused on China’s massive urbanisation needs which can be met by European companies.Chinese investments into Germany and the EU are soaring. Significantly, unlike many other countries, China has shown a strong interest in the future course of Asem, the Asia Europe Meeting forum which is often criticised for being a mere talk shop.At the Asem summit in Milan last week, Li waxed lyrical about Asem’s role in improving connectivity between Asia and Europe, underlining his vision of building a Silk Road between Asia.Li knows he is on a winning streak. As the Financial Times newspaper reported recently, Chinese investors are surging into the EU.In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over 6.1bn euro — less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly 27bn euro, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.Not surprisingly, the EU and China are in the process of negotiating a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting each others’ investments but also ensuring better marker access.China is clearly not about to ditch Russia. But Beijing’s focus is on the growing markets of Europe. Western policymakers can sleep easy. For many nights.

View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)

The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.

Why Global Europe must change in an “anxious age” (Originally published 04/09/2014)

Federica Mogherini’s appointment as the new European Union foreign policy chief offers an opportunity for an overhaul of EU foreign and security policy. With many EU leaders, ministers and senior officials slow to respond to world events given Europe’s traditionally long summer break, the 2014 summer of death and violence has left the reputation of “Global Europe” in tatters, highlighting the EU’s apparent disconnect from the bleak reality surrounding it. When she takes charge in November along with other members of the new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, Mogherini’s first priority must be to restore Europe’s credibility in an increasingly volatile and chaotic global landscape.It cannot be business as usual. A strategic rethink of Europe’s global outreach is urgent. Europe can no longer pretend that it is not – or only mildly – shaken by events on its doorstep. In a world where many countries are wracked by war, terrorism and extremism, EU foreign policy cannot afford to be ad hoc, reactive and haphazard. Given their different national interests and histories, European governments are unlikely to ever speak with “one voice” on foreign policy. But they can and should strive to share a coherent, common, strategic reflection and vision of Europe’s future in an uncertain and anxious world.Changing gears is going to be tough. Many of Europe’s key beliefs in the use of soft power, a reliance on effective multilateralism, the rule of law and a liberal world order are being shredded by governments and non-state actors alike. With emerging nations, especially in Asia, gaining increased economic and political clout, Europe has been losing global power and influence for almost a decade. Despite pleas by NATO and the crisis in Ukraine, most European governments remain reluctant to increase military and defence spending. At the same time, the Eurozone crisis and Europe’s plodding economic recovery with unacceptably high unemployment continue to erode public support for the EU both at home and abroad. Populist far-right and extreme-left groups in Europe – including in the European Parliament – preach a protectionist and inward-looking agenda. Most significantly, EU national governments are becoming ever greedier in seeking to renationalise important chunks of what is still called Europe’s “common foreign and security policy.”To prove her critics wrong - and demonstrate foreign policy expertise and flair despite only a six-month stint as Italy’s foreign minister - Mogherini will have to hit the ground running. Her performance at the European Parliament on September 2, including an adamant rejection of charges of being “pro-Russian”, appears to have been impressive. Admirers point out that she is a hard-working team player, who reads her briefs carefully and speaks fluent English and French in addition to her native Italian. These qualities should stand her in good stead as she manages the unwieldy European External Action Service (EEAS), plays the role of vice president of the European Commission, chairs EU foreign ministerial meetings, chats up foreign counterparts and travels around the world while also – hopefully – spearheading a strategic review of Europe’s global interests and priorities.The tasks ahead are certainly daunting. There is need for reflection and action on several fronts – all at the same time. Eleven years after the then EU High Representative Javier Solana drew up the much-lauded European Security Strategy (partially revised in 2008), Europe needs to reassess the regional and global security environment, reset its aims and ambitions and define a new agenda for action. But this much-needed policy overhaul to tackle new and evolving challenges must go hand-in-hand with quick fire-fighting measures to deal with immediate regional and global flashpoints.The world in 2014 is complex and complicated, multi-polar, disorderly and unpredictable. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have up-ended the post-World War security order in Europe. The so-called “Islamic State” is spreading its hateful ideology through murder and assassination in Syria and Iraq, not too far from Europe’s borders. A fragile Middle East truce is no guarantee of real peace between Israelis and Palestinians. These and other complex problems require multi-faceted responses.The days of one-size-fits-all foreign policy are well and truly over. In an inter-connected and interdependent world, foreign policy means working with friends but also with enemies, with like-minded nations and those which are non-like-minded, with competitors and allies. It’s fine to pay special attention to China, India and other headline-grabbing big countries but it could be self-defeating to ignore the significance and clout of Indonesia, Mexico and other middle or even small powers. Upgrading ties with the US remains crucial. While relations with states and governments are important they must go hand-in-hand with contacts with business leaders, civil society actors and young people. Finally, Europe needs to acquire a less simplistic and more sophisticated understanding of Islam and its Muslim neighbours, including Turkey, which has been left in uncertainty about EU membership for more than fifty years.Europe’s response to the new world must include a smart mix of brain and brawn, soft and hard power, carrots and sticks. Isolation and sanctions can’t work on their own but neither can a foreign policy based only on feel-good incentives. The EU’s existing foreign policy tools need to be sharpened but European policymakers also need to sharpen and update their view of the world. Mogherini’s youth and hopefully fresh stance on some of these issues could be an asset in this exercise. Importantly, Mogherini must work in close cooperation and consultation with other EU institutions, including the European Parliament and especially the European Commission whose many departments, including enlargement issues, trade, humanitarian affairs, environment, energy and development are crucial components of Global Europe. The failure of synergies among Commission departments is believed to be at least partly responsible for the weaknesses of the EU’s “Neighbourhood Policy”. Also, a coherent EU foreign policy demands close coordination with EU capitals. Recent experience shows that, as in the case of negotiations with Iran, the EU is most effective when the foreign policy chief works in tandem with EU member states. Closer contacts with NATO will also be vital if Europe is to forge a credible strategy vis-àvis Russia and Ukraine. Such cooperation is especially important if – as this article suggests – Mogherini embarks on a revamp of EU foreign and security policy.An incomplete list of key issues which require closer scrutiny in the days and weeks ahead includes:

• EU policymakers need to rethink relations with Russia following the Ukraine crisis and Moscow’s success in breaking down Europe’s post-World War security order. This requires a careful evaluation of EU-Russia relations which goes beyond the current focus on sanctions but includes the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas and the over-arching need to ensure immediate and long-term stability on Europe’s eastern flank. A key question to reflect over is whether US-EU restrictive measures can be effective in a world where other countries – in Asia, Africa and Latin America – are ready and willing to move in to the much-coveted Russian market. Mogherini has previously raised eyebrows for allegedly being soft on Russia but she has since told Italy's Corriere della Sera that sanctions against Russia are necessary, adding at the European Parliament that Moscow is no longer an EU strategic partner. But even as sanctions are ratcheted up,is it in Europe’s interest to isolate Russia – and should it even try? More immediately, will an EU-Russia summit go ahead as planned later this year or is there an interest in trying to re-establish a constructive conversation with Russia again?

• Events in Ukraine spotlight the failure of the EU’s goal of creating a “ring” of stable and well-governed states around its border and the glaring need to jettison the Neighbourhood Policy in favour of a less-exclusive and fresh strategy for a diverse region where none of the states are ready for EU membership and where the EU wields only limited influence given its modest financial resources and the increasing presence and funding possibilities from not just Russia but also China.

• Europe’s quasi silence over the summer’s violent events in the Middle East has dented EU credibility in a region where it once enjoyed a certain degree of respect. The EU needs to regain its role as an important actor in any peace talks which follow the current Israel-Palestinian truce. While taking part in upcoming Gaza reconstruction talks, Mogherini and her team must also reflect on the long-term validity of a situation where EU-funded projects (the EU spends US$600m on Gaza territories each year) are regularly reduced to rubble by Israeli military intervention.

• Even a more experienced foreign policy expert than Mogherini would find it difficult to hammer out an EU policy to stabilise Iraq and Syria in the face of the ruthless expansion of the “Islamic State”. Much will also depend on whether US President Obama is really as determined as he claims to be in leading a regional and international coalition to beat back the terrorists. European nations certainly have the military capabilities—such as the EU battle groups—to contribute to military actions together with the US. But there is no certainty that they will find the required political will – and public support - to take such steps. In any case, the EU needs to hammer out a medium to long-term strategy for political, humanitarian and financial efforts to stabilise the devastated region.

• In addition – and in any case - the EU needs not only to avert any domestic terrorist threat posed by “foreign fighters” who return to Europe from the Middle-East but also enhance its knowledge of Islam, its different interpretations and variations, distinguishing not only - as hopefully they now do - between Shia and Sunni but also among the various, often quixotic and radical sects promoted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mogherini’s thesis on Islamic politics should help her to spearhead such a reflection.

• More importantly a closer dialogue is needed with Turkey. Ankara may have been accused of allowing foreign fighters easy transit routes to Syria but its knowledge of the region continues to be valuable. Encouraged by the recent erratic and often-authoritarian actions of now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the EU has let its relationship with Turkey fester for much too long. Even if membership negotiations remain erratic and certain European leaders send out contrary political messages, Europe must find a way to revitalise relations with this important country. A closer dialogue with Iran, once the nuclear issue is surmounted, will help. Indonesia, only now being considered an interesting partner for the EU, has arguable even more insights to offer.

• The focus on the eastern and southern borders will not be enough. Europe’s hopes for being recognized as a valid and relevant global actor hinge on its relations with Asian nations, including China, India and Japan but also South Korea and the ten states in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). There is little the EU can do to directly tackle the so called “Asian paradox” whereby countries enmeshed in increasingly close economic networks are also embroiled in acrimonious territorial disputes. Mogherini would be well-advised to maintain strong EU ties with both Beijing and Tokyo while continuing to press for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants. EU support for South Korean President Parks’s North East Asia peace and cooperation initiative (NEAPCI) to build trust in the region should be considered. Disputes over history as well as maritime claims have meant that no Trilateral summit between the three countries since 2012. Mogherini could try and encourage the opening of a purposeful dialogue among the three nations, allowing stability to return to an economically prosperous but politically fragile area.

• Having injected new dynamism into its once lacklustre relationship with ASEAN over the last three years, the EU must not reduce its diplomatic and economic engagement with the region. This requires participation in all key ASEAN related events and a subtle but determined effort to become a member of the East Asia Summit, the region’s increasingly important dialogue forum. The EU already participates in many of the East Asia Summit’s activities through its cooperation with ASEAN in areas from economic and financial cooperation and environmental issues and disaster relief to education and research and technology.

Mogherini will not be able to do it on her own. Much will depend on the EEAS team she works with and the knowledge, expertise and passion her aides bring to their work. Team work and leadership, not micro-management, will be required.With the crisis in Ukraine and the volatile and dangerous violence spreading through the Middle East, the EU needs to rethink its foreign and security policy, asking itself three key questions: can Europe’s most-modern attachment to soft power, diplomacy and multilateralism, which have stood it well during the last decades, survive in an increasingly unstable and volatile world? How ready is the EU to forge a more muscular and interventionist approach? And can Europe make such a momentous policy U-turn at a time of falling European defence budgets and amid continuing public wariness of getting involved in foreign conflicts?Putting these issues on the backburner is no longer an option. The change of guard in Brussels is the right moment to review and reconsider Europe’s role in the world. Global Europe’s disconnect needs to be tackled before it’s too late.