Young, gifted Arabs hold the key to peace

Helle, Hajer and Hussein are young, articulate and ambitious. They dream big and aim high. They want the best for themselves and for the countries – Tunisia, Libya and Syria – they live in.You won’t read about them in traditional newspapers. They aren’t making headlines just yet.But more, much more, than their governments, these young people and millions of others like them hold the key to our future.Almost 65 per cent of the population in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is under the age of 30.  The choices that Helle and her friends make will determine the fate of their own countries. But they will also have a strong impact on Europe and the world.I met these “Young Mediterranean Voices” – teachers, journalists, environmentalists, social entrepreneurs, peace and democracy activists – at the MedForum 2016, organised last week in Malta by the Anna Lindh Foundation.The energy and enthusiasm of more than 500 savvy, young Europeans and Arabs whom the Anna Lindh Foundation had identified as “change-makers” rang through the Valetta conference centre. The talk was of crafting a narrative of hope, dialogue and cooperation that runs counter to the extremist discourse of hate and violence.‘No-one is born a terrorist’, says one young man. Instead of trying to counter the extremists’ poisonous voices, many underline the need to articulate an inspiring vision of societies where people can live in peace.Religion is the last thing on their minds. These young people want to fight for better education, jobs, clean government, stability and hope. And forget the stereotypes: the girls – including the small number who wears headscarves – are even more confident than the boys.The focus on civil society and young people as agents of social change is not new. But there is a consensus on the need to act urgently.The good news is that the Anna Lindh Foundation is getting the attention and support it deserves. The message of the EU High Representative, Federica Mogherini, to the Forum highlighted Europe’s commitment to engagement with young people.And there are growing opportunities for young people to make a difference.United Nations Security Council Resolution 2250, agreed last December, emphasises the crucial role they can play in managing conflicts and establishing peace. And building stronger Euro-Mediterranean bonds is going to be a key priority for Malta, which takes over the EU Council presidency in January 2017.The conversations in Valetta provided many lessons for policymakers.First, stop obsessing about religion and start putting money where it really matters: into schools, job creation and investment schemes.Second, engage with civil society – don’t fear it. MENA governments too often reject the ideas and passion of young people instead of seeking to channel their enthusiasm for change and reform into positive contributions to national policymaking. And while many EU cooperation agreements include an important people-to-people component, these programmes need to be made more crucial and more exciting.Third, even as it seeks to engage with MENA governments, the EU should invest in the region’s young people. This is essential if the region is to have long-term peace and stability.Certainly many parts of the Arab world are jolted by conflicts and wars. Violence and economic deprivation are driving many young people to come to Europe.But the gathering in Malta is proof that Europe’s southern neighbourhood need not be a place of death and destruction. With the right policies, the right people in charge, and sustained support, it can be a region of hope and peace.

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Europeans eager to trade, do business with Iran (Originally published 18/07/2015 at Dawn.com)

Suddenly last week, after weeks of acrimony, arguments and threats, the dark clouds over the European Union appeared to clear slightly.

EU leaders fought off fears of a Greek exit from the Eurozone by hammering out a deal to bail out the devastated Greek economy. And finally following years of hard bargaining, international negotiators, including EU officials, clinched an agreement on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme.Europeans’ response to the two breakthrough accords has been quite different. The deal on Greece has left a sour taste, with Europeans divided on just how much more economic pain the Greeks can and should be forced to take. In contrast, there is no rift in Europe over the accord with Iran. European governments, business and public opinion have been largely positive about prospects of a normalisation of relations with Tehran.In fact they want more than normalisation. As was the case two years ago when Myanmar finally opened up, Europeans are anxious and eager to make their mark in Iran as quickly as possible, before the competition heats up.European foreign ministries want to re-establish diplomatic relations with Tehran, the EU plans to open its own office, and European business leaders and investors can’t wait to enter the Iranian market.On the geostrategic front, there are hopes that an end to Iranian isolation will change the political landscape in the Middle East by reducing power and influence of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.True, there is also wariness of Tehran’s ambitions and role in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. But few in Europe give credence to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s quasi-hysterical rants against Tehran. And unlike in the United States, there are no major European political parties who oppose the re-establishment of relations with Iran.The race to be the first one to visit the country has already begun. A procession of high-ranking visitors is expected to head to Tehran, with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius already saying he will go soon.British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said he hopes the UK and Iran can fully reopen their respective embassies by year end. Ties between the UK and Iran had plunged after the 2011 storming of the British embassy in Tehran.And European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who presided over the nuclear negotiations, also wants to open the first EU mission in Tehran in 2016 as part of what she hopes will be a “new chapter” in relations.The focus is very much on the Iranian market and the country’s appetite for European exports, investments, technology and know-how after years of life under sanctions.Europe’s interest in Iran’s oil and gas sector is high as EU nations seek to reduce their dependence on imports of Russian gas. But Europe faces tough competition from American companies, Russia and China.Chinese analysts are already predicting a surge in trade and business flows between China and Iran and point to the contribution Beijing can make to upgrade and build Iranian infrastructure.Iran is also widely expected to become a key participant in China’s ambitious ‘One Belt, One Road’ connectivity network linking China to other parts of Asia and Europe.In contrast to China, EU policymakers, focused almost completely on the nuclear issue, have not yet given serious consideration to ways of upgrading ties with Tehran.EU foreign policy chief Mogherini talks ambitiously of bringing together all key Middle East countries, including Iran, “to see if some form of regional cooperation is possible”.While the vision of Middle East regional cooperation is noble, there is, of course, very little hope that — at least in the short to medium-term — Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries will be able to sit at the same table, much less work together.The EU could, however, insist that Iran should be allowed to participate in the Geneva talks on ending the civil war in Syria. Tehran could also be helpful in EU efforts to build a strategy to counter the self-styled Islamic State.Given the EU’s demands that Iran reduce the rate of executions and eradicate torture, discussions on human rights are likely to be difficult.EU-Iran cooperation is likely to be most buoyant if the focus is on practical questions such as environmental protection, water management, infrastructure development, technology transfer, and academic and cultural exchanges.Europe’s normalisation of relations with Iran is likely to be slow and steady as European governments and Tehran get to know each other again and step by step build trust.Ironically, in fact, today there seems to be more trust between the EU and Iran than between Greeks and their fellow Europeans.
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View From Abroad: Europe needs lucid advice on diversity, not US grandstanding (Originally published 21/02/2015 at dawn.com)

Pity embattled European Union leaders. Not only are they grappling with tough-guy Russian President Vladimir Putin, striving to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire in Ukraine while also preventing Greece from exiting the eurozone, they now also have the United States — and Israel — grandstanding and haranguing them on how to reduce racism and make Europe a better and more inclusive place.Europe certainly needs advice on dealing with immigrant communities and the rise in anti-Semitism across the bloc is cause for great concern. But reading the barrage of criticism levelled at European leaders over the last few days I could not help thinking about people in glasshouses not throwing stones at others.Neither the US nor Israel is in a position to give Europe lessons on dealing with minority communities. Neither, by the way, are any Muslim-majority countries whose track record on dealing with minority populations is quite simply abysmal.True, Europe needs to engage in some deep soul-searching on just what kind of a society and future it wants: one in which “foreigners” are treated with contempt, where asylum seekers are allowed to drown as they head for European shores, where the Far Right appears to speak for all of Europe or a more open, diverse and multicultural/religious/ethnic place where all people feel at home.What Europe needs therefore are thoughtful, well-reasoned and lucid advice and counsel on developing new pro-minority policies, ensuring better integration and combating the toxic rhetoric of xenophobic Far Right parties, which currently dominate Europe’s societal and political discourse.Such advice can come from all sources. But make no mistake: this is a global challenge, not just a European one. Such a debate is necessary in most countries, including the US and Israel — and all Muslim ones. When it comes to accepting difference and diversity, all countries are sinners.Discriminatory treatment is not just reserved for those who practise a different religion, come from a different ethnic group or just simply look different but also for those with physical disabilities, different political ideas, a different sexual orientation or just who don’t “fit in”. In some countries, just being a woman means being treated as an inferior being.“Good” countries are aware of the challenges and hammer out — and implement — laws which ban such discriminatory treatment. They develop an inclusive narrative and make sure that criminals are brought to justice. They strive to make everyone feel at home.“Bad” countries do the opposite. They may be aware of the problem but often pretend that their nation is perfect. They don’t stand up for the victims of racism/discrimination. There is no focus on accountability or securing justice.Yes, that is an over-simplification. But so is the advice that Europe has received recently. US presidential hopeful Jeb Bush recently told foreign policy experts that America under his rule would welcome immigrants. Unlike Europe, Bush said that “we come in 34 different flavours” and “we have the potential to be young and dynamic again”.US Vice President Joe Biden told last week’s three-day White House summit on countering violent extremism that Europe was vulnerable to radicalised attacks because immigrants in the EU are less integrated into the local societies compared with the US. “I’m not suggesting ... that I think America has all the answers here. We just have a lot more experience,” Biden said and stressed that “inclusion counts”.Bush and Biden are right in some aspects: America could some years ago claim to be less hysterical about Islam than Europe. But the Tea Party and Fox News are proof that the anti-Muslim diatribes are now the same on both sides of the Atlantic. That’s no surprise given the transatlantic cross-fertilisation of “ideas” on Islam-bashing under way.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meanwhile has made a much-publicised call for European Jews to move to Israel after recent terrorist killings in Denmark. Significantly, his views are prompting a backlash from not only European leaders but Jews themselves. Commentators argue that for many Jews, such remarks ignore, and even insult, the acceptance they feel in the countries where they and their families have often lived for generations.“We are a little confused by this call, which is basically like a call to surrender to terror,” said Arie Zuckerman, senior executive at the Eur­o­pean Jewish Congress. “It may send a wrong message to the lea­ders of Europe.” According to Rabbi Menachem Margolin, “to come out with this kind of statement after each attack is unacceptable.”Not surprisingly many European Muslims feel similarly irritated when leaders from Muslim countries try and give advice to them.Better advice has come from Francois Crepeau, a UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, who has said that the EU needs to change its migrant policy as it doesn’t answer to the problems which are emerging. “A common narrative celebrating mobility and diversity, recognising real labour market needs, as well as the needs of migrants, based on human rights guarantees and access to justice, must be developed,” said Crépeau.The UN Rapporteur is right. European leaders must act urgently to stop the rise in Islamophobia and build more inclusive societies. They should stop pandering to the Far Right. More humane policies are needed towards the endless waves of asylum seekers stuck in Lampedusa and other centres. Above all, attitudes to change.Proof that this can happen is provided by the new Greek government led by Alexis Tsipras. Greece has seen a surge in racist assaults in recent years, with the Golden Dawn fascist party intimidating immigrants and human rights advocates.The new government has pledged to close down detention centres for illegal immigrants that have long been criticised by rights groups as inhuman.Tasia Christodoulopoulou, a veteran human rights attorney who is now Greece’s first-ever minister for immigration, has said Athens has to move quickly to improve the poor reputation it has acquired handling those fleeing poverty and deprivation.Tsipras may be getting flak from other European leaders when it comes to his eurozone politics. But his EU partners could learn a thing or two about trying to build a better society from Greece.

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View From Abroad: Islamic nations should not meddle in European Muslims lives (Originally published 17/01/2015 at dawn.com)

It must be said loud and clear and repeatedly: governments in Islamic countries must stop meddling in the lives of European Muslims.Many of the 20 million or so Muslims in the European Union may still hold passports of their countries of birth, in addition to their European nationalities. They may also have families in their countries of origin, harbour fond memories of lives (or their parents’ lives) there and retain a link to these nations.But make no mistake: the concerns, priorities, needs — and values — of European Muslims are very different from those living elsewhere, not just in Muslim-majority countries but also in North America.There is an exception to this: radicalised Muslims across the globe are being financed, trained, incited and equipped by Wahabi/Salafi extremist groups with their origins in Saudi Arabia and a few other Middle East nations.Wahabi tentacles reach deep into many European Muslim and American Muslim communities just as they do across the world, including Pakistan. And the results are the same: radicalisation, extremism and — in some cases — terrorism in the name of ‘jihad’.But the majority of European Muslims — especially those born and bred in Europe or those who have made Europe their permanent home — have long stopped obsessing about what happens in Turkey, Algeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Egypt. They care, certainly, for these and other countries and can even help on both the political and economic fronts. But their lives and future are here in Europe. Quite simply: they are European.And just like other Europeans, their focus is on jobs, education, housing and security. Yes, European Muslims sometimes face discrimination and racism — and certainly there is a rise in anti-Islam feeling in the wake of the Paris tragedy. The rise of the toxic Far Right is a cause for concern and anxiety.But no, mostly, Muslims in Europe don’t want to go ‘back home’. Europe is their home.They certainly don’t need the ‘support’ and ‘sympathy’ of non-European Muslim leaders and governments who know nothing of Europe and whose comments — possibly well-meant — can make things worse.Take the justifiable and widespread derision at the presence of leaders from many Muslim countries at the demonstration in Paris last week in favour of freedom of expression and against terrorism, following the murder of 12 people, including two Muslims, at the Charlie Hebdo magazine.Yes, it was hypocritical and ironic, even amusing. Many of the male leaders (I did not see any Muslim female leaders) who walked solemnly in Paris are not well-known for their defence of human rights, freedom of expression and commitment to diversity. They engage in torture, repression and worse. Many support extremist groups. They clamp down hard on dissent.Some of these leaders deserve special mention. In Brussels this week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a strong and very valid call for an “inclusive European identity”, arguing passionately that Turks and Muslims in Europe should not be the target of discrimination. Just as he had marched in Paris, non-Muslim European leaders should show the same solidarity when mosques are burned, he argued.Quite true. If only Turkey did not have one of the largest number of journalists in prison, had not arrested some of the country’s top journalists working for the Zaman newspaper and did not have more than 70 Turkish journalists currently being investigated for referring to the corruption allegations against close associates of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa marched in Paris, seemingly oblivious to the fact that 12 Bahraini journalists are currently detained in Bahrain, the youngest only 15.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to France had the gall to be in the demonstration while his government has publicly flogged blogger Raef Badawi for ‘insulting Islam’ and sentenced him to 10 years in prison. And there are more floggings to come, up to 1,000 lashes.Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was also there although his government has jailed three Al-Jazeera journalists. The blacklist also included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.It’s not just their presence at these marches that irks, it’s also their comments on European Muslims’ lives. Yes, many of the European Muslim community were offended and disturbed by the Charlie Hebdo cartoons. But many were not. And those who do object make their feelings known through court cases, articles and discussions.And if they really don’t like it in Europe, Ahmed Aboutaleb, the Muslim mayor of Rotterdam, recently argued that they can leave.“It’s incomprehensible that you can be against freedom like that. But if you don’t like that freedom, pack your bags and leave,” Aboutaleb said to the Huffington Post, adding: “If you can’t find your place in the Netherlands, in the way we want to build a society together, leave.”Originally from Morocco and the son of an imam, Aboutaleb moved to the Netherlands in 1976 when he was 15 years old. Since becoming mayor of Rotterdam in 2009, he has broken new ground for minorities and Muslims across Europe.Europe has many examples of well-integrated, tax-paying, peaceful and successful European Muslims. There are Muslim politicians, business leaders, artists, doctors and lawyers. They may sometimes face prejudice — young European Muslims in France but also elsewhere are disenfranchised and angry. But mostly Muslims make a positive contribution to Europe’s diverse societies.If they are honest, many admit that they are better off here in Europe than in Mirpurkhas or Anatolia.Muslims need to strike a seminal “win-win” big bargain with the countries they call home. They should leave no doubt about their allegiance and loyalty to Europe, their commitment to universal values of tolerance, democracy and human rights.In exchange, they must be recognised and celebrated as fully fledged, active and constructive European citizens. Those who commit terrorist attacks should not be labelled ‘Muslims’ — they are murderers and criminals and should be tried as such.There is no room in such a social contract for meddling by non-Europeans, however well-intentioned. Despite the toxic Far-Right messages, the unfortunate media hype and the anger in the wake of the Paris attacks, Europe is a multi-cultural and diverse continent — even if sometimes, Europeans forget it.

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View from Abroad: Peshawar, Paris, Pegida and me (Originally published 10/01/2015 at dawn.com)

Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does.On the second day of my long-awaited trip to Pakistan in December last year, I woke up to the news of the horrible massacre of school children in Peshawar.Like most people, I wept for the innocent lost lives, the bereaved families and a once honourable country which has lost its path, becoming mired in ever-more indecent violence and barbarism.As I made my way home to Brussels a few days into 2015, I was preparing to write about Pegida, Germany’s nascent and very toxic ‘anti-Islamisation’ movement which is making headlines across the globe.But then tragedy struck again as terrorists, unfortunately and wrongly, described as Islamists gunned down 12 people at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, the Paris-based satirical magazine.As France and the world mourned the dead and worried about the freedom of expression, diversity and tolerance, I asked myself: how many tears can you shed? How long and often can you weep? Will the hatred, violence and extremism ever end?I don’t know the answers but I know that whether we recognise the link or not, Peshawar, Paris and Pegida are, tragically, connected.I know that money, encouragement and support for the extremists whether in the Middle East, Pakistan, Asia or Europe can be traced to extremist Wahabi state and non-state actors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.I know that Far Right groups in Europe and the United States are spreading a hysterical and toxic anti-Islam message, gaining traction and popularity as the economic slowdown persists and unemployment continues to rise.I know that politicians in Europe, the US and the Muslim world are unwilling and unable to rise to the challenge of building a strong counter-narrative of tolerance and discrimination.I know that 2015 is going to be a defining, testing year for humanity’s ability to live together in peace while accepting differences in religion, colour and culture.I know that the violence-loving, gun-toting men and (some) women who kill, maim and torture are outside the boundaries of any religion. There is no “Islamic State”, only murderers and criminals. There is no “good” Taliban, just blood-thirsty barbarians.I know that just as is the case for freedom-loving people in Pakistan, life for Muslims in Europe is going to get tougher in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks.But I also know that sanity and good sense will probably and hopefully prevail in both Pakistan and Europe.In the end, it’s not the politicians who will stop the rot. It is the people, the ordinary men, women and young people who say “enough is enough” to violence and intolerance.I know it is possible. As we visited Lahore only hours before the massacre in Peshawar, girls and boys came up to us to talk and take pictures, giggling and chuckling, proud of Pakistan and their heritage.The Badshahi Mosque and the Lahore Fort sparkled in the sun but it was the laughter and the cheeky jokes of the young men and women that warmed our souls.This was Pakistan the way it really is, the way it should always be. Hours later as we tried to come to grips with the tragedy in Peshawar, I took solace in the hope I had seen in the eyes of the young people of Lahore.In Europe too, it is the people who will stop the continent from descending into a dangerous downward spiral of anti-Muslim sentiment.True, the Far Right is gaining momentum. Talk of a “clash of civilisations” is rife. But equally those who want a multicultural and tolerant Europe are speaking out.Pegida gatherings have been dwarfed by massive counter-demonstrations in Dresden, Berlin and Cologne where people have spoken in support of immigrants and condemned intolerance.The famous Cologne cathedral and Berlin’s Brandenburg gate have switched off lighting as a sign of protest against xenophobic rallies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against hate and discrimination.In the aftermath of the Paris killings, European governments will certainly clamp down hard on radicals and would-be terrorists. They are right to do so. But in the medium and long-term, European politicians must also focus on the compelling need to integrate and accept their Muslim citizens.Retribution and revenge must not be allowed to take centre stage. If it does, it will play into the hands of the extremists.This is a dangerous moment. Yes, it is war. But it not a conflict between Islam and the West. The battle being fought so cruelly is between people who believe in humanity and criminals and terrorists who, quite simply, want to kill.

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Shada Islam quoted in 'Europe Muted on CIA Torture Report Amid Islamic State Conflict' (The Washington Post with Bloomberg 10/12/2014)

European governments gave a muted response to a U.S. report on Central Intelligence Agency torture, declining the opportunity to criticize the Obama administration amid concerns over current security threats.

While China accused the U.S. of hypocrisy, the European Union and the U.K. moderated their response to the findings of the report by Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

“There’s a deep reluctance to open old wounds just as we face the challenge of Islamic State and parts of the Middle East go up in flames,” Shada Islam, Director of Policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said in a phone interview. “Many European governments were complicit or at least turned a blind eye to what the CIA was doing.”

The report, which focused on the agency’s “enhanced interrogation techniques” in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, revealed that U.S.-held terrorism suspects received more brutal treatment than previously known.

For the full article, visit http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NGBYTJ6K50YD01-0BB8G4EV8H8HOEQDREHOMQHNBP

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Democracy in Pakistan: Tough Lessons (Originally published 22/01/13)

There are two views on recent events in Pakistan. For some, Pakistan has shown its true colours as a chaotic and disorderly failed state. There were border skirmishes with India, more deadly extremist sectarian violence in an already deeply troubled province, rumours of a “soft” military coup as an unknown “Sufi cleric” and his followers demanded an end to corruption and —not to forget — another judicial demand that the prime minister be arrested on charges of graft.For others — admittedly in a minority — these and other equally strange developments were signs of a “maturing” and thriving democracy, of a people waking up to their rights as citizens and a vivid illustration of the strong independence of the judiciary.Finally a “people’s revolution”, Pakistan’s version of Egypt’s “Tahrir Square” in the streets of Islamabad, exulted some commentators. Hush, it’s another army conspiracy to derail democracy, said others.Both narratives have been expounded with equal force. They leave observers hungry for more information and less glib explanations, more facts and less fiction. However, now that the turmoil of the last few days appears to be over — at least temporarily — it’s wise to reflect on lessons learned.First, the rapid sequence of tragedy in Balochistan and farce in Islamabad hasn’t helped Pakistan’s already battered reputation.This is not just important for reasons of PR but also because Pakistan desperately needs foreign investment. No one is going to put money in a country seen to be always a mere heartbeat away from a suicide bombing, a terrorist attack or a deadly explosion.Le Monde, the influential and much-respected French newspaper, recently described Pakistan as “the sick child of South Asia,” noting in a scathing article that “there is something desperate about Pakistan”. As soon as the country shows signs of improvement, things go badly wrong, the article underlined, adding: “frankly we would love to be able to give some positive news about Pakistan … but the task is impossible.”Le Monde is not alone. Despite admirable attempts by Pakistani diplomats and others to put a positive gloss on recent developments in the country, it really is not easy to be upbeat about Pakistan.Secondly, yes, it is certainly good news that the current democratically elected civilian government looks set to complete a full five-year term. But 66 years after independence, should that be a reason for serious reflection or a cause for celebration?Third, can democracy really be reduced to the organisation and winning of elections? Yes, true, free and fair polls are crucial but shouldn’t the focus also be on what happens after the ballots are counted and the new — or old — leaders speed off in their limousines and move into their luxury houses?There is no doubt that citizens want to vote. But after the elections, they also expect good governance. They want a government that can deliver food, water and electricity. They want a roof over their heads. They want access to proper schools and hospitals and they want to work.Pakistan’s beleaguered politicians have failed the governance exams for decades and the generals who swagger in periodically have not done much better. It is important to fight corruption but equally crucial to insist on good governance and the delivery of basic services.Fourth, justice and politics do not mix. It’s heartening to see that Pakistan’s top judge has emerged as a modern-day Robin Hood. But the public probably wants justice in Pakistan to be about more than the issuing of regular arrest warrants to serving prime ministers.Fifth, the tragedy in Balochistan provides more damning proof that Pakistan must get its priorities right: the real danger comes from extremist groups which regularly foment sectarian violence and have very effectively used terrorism to destabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan. A government must provide protection for all religious groups on its territory. The inability to stop attacks on Shias, Ahmadis, Christians, Hindus — and women — represents an unacceptable failure of governance.Six, it makes no sense to start another vicious circle of Pakistan-India tensions over Kashmir or any other piece of land. Both countries have too much at stake to engage in another round of accusations and counter-accusations. The corrosive language of confrontation must be replaced by cooperation.This is important not just for Pakistan and India but also for South Asia as a whole. The region lags behind in meeting most of the anti-poverty Millennium Development Goals, its children are undernourished, women discriminated against and disease and illiteracy are rampant.Trade within the region is a mere fraction of what it should be. As Southeast Asia has illustrated, the future belongs to countries that can stop fighting and start cooperating to meet region-wide challenges. The 21st century is about building effective regional blocs, not sustaining regional animosities.Finally, as shown by the flurry of tragedies, dramas and mini dramas over the last week, the run-up to the elections is going to be a tumultuous time. There will probably be further storms in more teacups, more violence and all kinds of evil attempts to derail democracy in Pakistan.Seen from the outside, Pakistan does seem to be trapped in an unfortunate cycle of mishaps, misplaced hopes and unhappy accidents. There is general consensus that the country’s resilient, hard-working and long-suffering people deserve better than what they have ever received from soldiers or politicians. For many, the only true and uplifting narrative about Pakistan is one that speaks of the strength and fortitude of its people.

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A new agenda for Afghanistan's development (Originally published 04/07/12)

As international donors prepare to meet in Tokyo on 8 July to discuss Afghanistan’s economic future, the focus should be on more than making new aid commitments. Donors should craft a longer-term agenda for good governance to tackle the country’s immediate problems and prepare for the 2014 drawdown of foreign troops.To ensure development and stability in the country, the Afghan government and the international community should:

  • Strike the right balance between support for the army and building strong civilian institutions
  • Focus on sustainable growth and development in addition to security
  • Reduce aid dependency progressively and attract job-creating investments
  • Combat corruption and empower civil society
  • Resist creeping erosion of achievements in women’s rights
  • Engage in capacity-building for journalists, encourage new media

The good news is that with the right economic leadership, Afghanistan could grow at a respectable 5% in the coming years. The bad news is that corruption and graft continue to plague the country, endangering prospects for building a stable and prosperous Afghanistan.Afghan President Hamid Karzai is hoping the conference in Tokyo will agree to aid pledges worth $4bn a year. Having already poured billions of dollars into the country – and given the current global economic slowdown – donors are understandably wary of making new commitments.Donors should make sure Afghanistan has access to sustained financial support in the coming years – but they should also link such assistance more firmly to improved the governance.The economic outlook for Afghanistan is more upbeat than many believe. The coming decade offers "high hopes, expectations, and great opportunities", according to World Bank Country Director Bob Saum.The country is believed to have mineral reserves worth as much as $3tn, which could theoretically generate billions of dollars in tax revenue. More can also be done to tap into Afghanistan’s agricultural potential.Major strides have been made in schooling children and improving health for mothers and children but three-quarters of Afghans are illiterate and the average person earns only about $530 a year, according to the World Bank.In addition, the situation of Afghan women remains precarious. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton among others has said she is “deeply troubled” by recent developments in the country, including the Afghan Justice Minister Habibullah Ghalib's suggestion that women's shelters were home to “immorality and prostitution”.“His comments set back efforts to fight violence against women in Afghanistan, including the need to provide victims with safe places to take shelter," Ashton said in a recent statement. “Too many Afghan women have experienced violence, gender-based and sexual, often on a repeated basis,” she said, adding: “Women forced to resort to shelters are amongst the bravest Afghans we know.”The Afghan government has asked donors to channel more aid funds through the national budget rather than through contractors or aid groups. Donors are also being asked to better tailor aid to the government's priorities including health, education, agriculture and the mining sector.Donors’ response should, however, hinge on efforts to combat waste, fraud and corruption. They should also demand that Afghan promises are followed up by real action.

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Saudi women and the Arab spring (Originally published 30/09/11)

There’s good news and bad news for advocates of women’s rights in the Arab world: Saudi Arabia has announced that women in the country will for the first time be able to vote and stand in municipal elections in 2015. The bad news is that they will probably have to walk to the polling stations.

Only hours after there was general applause for Saudi King Abdullah’s “revolutionary and historic” decision to give women the municipal vote, a court in the country sentenced a woman to 10 lashes for challenging a ban on women driving in the kingdom.

True, the punishment has been overturned by the king. But the entire episode does not say much for the status of women in Saudi Arabia - and the king's chances of even ensuring a slow, snail-paced reform of his country.

It is indeed a pity that the world’s richest, most influential and most powerful Arab state continues to treat half of its citizens as irresponsible children who cannot be trusted to become full-fledged adult citizens of the 21st Century.

The Muslim world would be a very different place if instead of fighting against modernity and equality, the Saudi monarchy used its riches and influence to promote equal opportunities, freedom and democracy.

For the moment those looking for inspiration in reconciling Islam and modernity have to learn lessons from Turkey or Indonesia.

Many Muslim countries squirm in the Saudi grip – complaints against the spread of Wahhabi values are rife in Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and elsewhere – but most people are reluctant to denounce the encroaching Saudi influence on their lifestyles. Indonesian scholars of Islam are the exception.

It is women who bear the brunt. Life for women in many parts of the Muslim world is not easy. There is discrimination at home and in the work place, multiple constraints and traditions to follow, rules and values that have to be respected, men who have to be “obeyed”.

The contagion is spreading to Muslim communities in Europe where France and Belgium have recently enacted legislation banning women from wearing the burqa.

Saudi Arabia is the worst offender. Women are not only veiled and segregated but cannot work, own property or even open a bank account without their father’s or husband’s permission.

Despite the king’s decision to over-rule the court, women are also denied the right to drive.

Women are key actors in the demand for change and reform that continues to convulse the Arab world. They must be supported in their determination to have a voice and a role to play in a post-revolution Middle East.

It’s happened before: women take part in a revolution but are instructed to stay home and stay quiet once the upheaval is over.

King Abdullah certainly deserves credit for his decision to give women the right to vote, to run in municipal elections and to be appointed as full voting members of the Majlis Al-Shura, a government advisory group.

It is a first step toward moving his country into the modern world but it is not nearly enough

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Recognising Palestine: EU’s Middle East policy in the spotlight (Originally published 21/09/11)

Europe’s struggle to forge a common stance on Palestinian efforts to win statehood recognition at the United Nations is a blow to the EU’s long-standing quest to make friends and influence policy in the Middle East. The UN move by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is hardly a surprise. Palestinian leaders have been mulling over the decision for several years. Also, as the rest of the Arab world wakes up to people power – and given the continuing stalemate in Israel-Palestine negotiations – a decision by the Palestinians to take their case to the UN sooner rather than later was to be expected.Europeans are deeply split on the issue: While France and Britain have signalled they are likely to support the Palestinians at least in the UN General Assembly, Germany has warned about the repercussions on peace talks with Israel. Others such as the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have indicated they will oppose the effort.The EU should have been better prepared. Since the 1980 Venice Declaration, Europeans have spoken in favour of a two-state solution to end the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The Palestinian Authority has received millions of Euros in EU assistance to build up institutions in preparation for full-fledged statehood. EU ministers are regular visitors to the region and Catherine Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, has spent many weeks in the region, working with the Americans and Tony Blair, the international envoy for the Middle East, to try and get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table.All of this makes the current disarray in EU ranks even more perplexing. It is also damaging for Europe’s international credibility and long-standing efforts to become a more powerful player in the Middle East. Europe’s disjointed response to the Palestinian bid will be difficult to explain given EU support for the Arab Spring and the values of democracy and freedom in the region.Mr Abbas is expected to deliver a formal request for statehood recognition on September 23 when he speaks to the UN General Assembly. The US and many European governments are urging the Palestinian leader not to push for an actual vote in the UN Security Council, where the US has promised a veto, but to go instead to the General Assembly with a demand for an upgrade of the Palestinians’ current observer status from “entity” to “non-member state.” This would place the Palestinians in a position similar to that of the Holy See, the government of the Roman Catholic Church, enabling them to sign international treaties. That could include having cases heard in the International Criminal Court.Once Mr Abbas hands a letter to the UN secretary-general calling for the Security Council to recognise Palestine as a state, it could take weeks or months for the UN to act on the Palestinians' request. The EU should use this time to rework its Middle East strategy to make it more credible and coherent.

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Time for Asia-Europe cooperation on food security (Originally published 06/05/11)

Asian and European policymakers meet in Chiang Mai, Thailand, next week for talks on food security amid fears that currently volatile food prices could trigger a new “food price shock” similar to the food crisis in 2006-2008.Rising food prices are spurring inflation and unease in Europe - but Asia is especially vulnerable. The region’s poor families spend over 60 per cent of their income on food compared to 10 per cent spent in developed nations. The rising cost of food is hurting Asia’s rural poor and urban middle classes.The Asian Development Bank has warned that a sustained 10 per cent rise in domestic food prices in developing Asia, home to 3.3 billion people, could push an additional 64 million people into extreme poverty. Recent gains in poverty reduction made in Asia could be seriously undermined.The statement echoed similar warnings made earlier in the year by World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick that “more people could become poor because of high and volatile prices.”The meeting in Chiang Mai on May 9 and 10 provides an opportunity for enhanced Asia-Europe cooperation to help defuse current uncertainties and improve global food security.Using the platform provided by ASEM, Asian and European countries can share experiences, exchange best practice and undertake joint initiatives to tackle the array of factors responsible for the rising cost of food.There is no dearth of issues to discuss. The 48 ASEM partners, including food producers, exporters and importers, must work together to improve farmers’ livelihoods, ensure sustainable agricultural and food production, encourage “responsible” agricultural investment and strengthen agricultural research.Sharing agricultural innovations and promoting technology transfers are important. Countries must work together to provide for food security arrangements in case of emergencies and share information on food security.ASEM members need a frank discussion on the many factors responsible for the current situation. Bad weather, including floods in Australia and Pakistan and increasing oil prices (immediately affecting the price of fertiliser) – worsened to some extent by the political turmoil in the Middle East – are clearly contributing to the problem.Countries’ efforts to reduce their dependence on oil by producing crops for fuel rather than food, can also impact on prices. Increases in population and added demand for more food by the world’s rapidly growing emerging countries – many of which are Asian – have further contributed to the pressure on food prices. An increase in the cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers and speculation in the futures market is aggravating the situation.To come to grips with the problem, governments need to focus attention on strengthening entire food systems from farm production, processing, retail and distribution to consumption. There must be increased emphasis on agricultural research which can increase crop yields.It is a daunting task requiring national initiatives but also collective action. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has agreed, through the ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework, to establish an emergency regional rice reserve system.The European Union is also well-placed to provide its experience and expertise to Asian countries. Once criticised for its system of costly farm subsidies and high farm tariffs, the EU has revamped its common agricultural policy and thanks to efficient and modern farming techniques, remains a leading exporter and importer of food products.The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, spends about 600 million euros a year on food security projects and programmes in developing countries.An EU food facility worth one billion euros is under implementation as a rapid response to the 2008 food crisis in developing countries. Most of the projects are expected to be completed by end-2011.With experts warning that if food and fuel prices continue to surge, economic growth in the Asian region could be reduced by up to 1.5% this year, the stakes are high for ASEM. In an inter-dependent world, changes in Asia’s growth prospects will have a strong impact on European economies.As a paper prepared for the ASEM meeting in Chiang Mai underlines, “Food security has become a serious challenge for our communities.” As such, it requires joint Asia-Europe action.

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No time to waste in stopping Syrian violence (Originally published 20/04/11)

Syria’s decision to lift the 48-year old state of emergency should not stop the European Union from pressing for more change and reform in the country. President Bashar al-Assad must be warned to halt any more action by security forces against protestors, whether in Homs, Deraa, Damascus or elsewhere.

There is no time to waste. It is still not clear if the lifting of the state of emergency will quell protests. But since protestors are now demanding wide-spread change and reform, it is likely to be a question of too little, too late.

Quick action is needed not just to enhance Europe’s battered credibility as a foreign policy actor and ensure stability in Syria, a key regional power. After Libya, it is about making sure that another Arab awakening does not descend into tragic violence.

The Syrian Interior Ministry’s ominous warning to protestors that there is “no more room for leniency or tolerance” has to be taken seriously. Europe cannot sit back and allow a repeat of the Hama massacre of 1982 when 20,000 civilians were killed by Syrian security forces.

This time lack of European leverage in the Middle East cannot be used as an argument. The EU is not without clout in Damascus. Syria, unlike Egypt and Tunisia, is not an ally of the United States. It is part of the EU’s neighbourhood policy, a recipient of EU aid and trade concessions.

The EU is Syria's largest trade partner with total trade amounting to approximately €5.4 billion in 2009, covering 23.1% of Syrian trade. Brussels and Syria are close to signing an association agreement. It’s now time to use that leverage.

Reports from Syria indicate that at least 18 protesters have died in clashes since President Assad on April 16 ordered a newly-appointed cabinet to make changes to defuse dissent. Anti-government protesters have held demonstrations for the past five weeks and clashed with Syrian security forces on Fridays after the weekly Muslim prayers. At least 130 people have been killed in the unrest that started in mid-March, according to Human Rights Watch.

The turmoil poses a serious challenge to Assad, who inherited power from his father 11 years ago. The regime has responded to the protests by blaming foreign conspirators.

Given the risk of more violence and killings, Europe must take the lead in demanding change and reform in Syria. EU foreign ministers’ call earlier this month for an immediate end to the use of force by security forces against peaceful demonstrators should be followed up by forceful action – trade and aid sanctions, visa restrictions, financial assets freeze – if there is no satisfactory response.

The European Parliament is right to demand a suspension of talks on a future Association Agreement with Syria until Damascus agrees to carry out “expected tangible democratic reforms.”

The resignation of Syria's government on March 29 "will not be enough to satisfy the growing frustrations of the people", the Parliament’s resolution said, adding that in addition to lifting the state of emergency, President Assad must put an end to repression of political opposition and human right defenders and undertake genuine political, economic and social reforms.

The Parliament has also called for independent investigation into the attacks on protesters and an end to arms sales to Syria.

EU foreign ministers have been more cautious but said they could “review policy” if the situation does not improve. Recent events are proof that the EU needs to get much tougher in its message to the Syrians.

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EU unity needed on Libya (Originally published 10/03/11)

European Union governments must not break ranks over how to end the prolonged crisis in Libya. They must also urgently agree on a new blueprint for stronger engagement with Egypt and Tunisia.Discord at the EU summit on March 11 or other meetings in the coming weeks will send a message of weakness and lack of resolve to Colonel Gaddafi, emboldening his supporters as they step up the offensive against rebels seeking his removal.Given the difficulties in getting a complete picture of the quickly changing situation in Libya – and different national concerns of the 27 EU states – Europe is not alone in struggling to find a coherent policy on Libya. The US is similarly divided on how best to tackle a very complex situation.European governments have imposed sanctions on Gaddafi and his family and sent millions of euros in humanitarian aid to refugees seeking to leave Libya. They remain rightfully wary of direct intervention, fearing entanglement in another prolonged war in the Middle East.In recent days, however, EU unity appears to be unravelling as member states set off in different directions.France has recognised the Libyan rebels as the country’s rightful representatives. The European Parliament says other European governments should do the same. Portugal, however, has held talks with an envoy despatched by Gaddafi, prompting Britain and German to insist that EU governments show pledge not to work or co-operate with Gaddafi. There is no EU agreement on setting up a no-fly zone although the UK and France are most clearly in favour of such a move.EU governments clearly need time to assess, reflect and consult on the right actions to take on Libya.  But while they do so, they should avoid sending mixed signals to Gaddafi and his supporters.Urgent action is also needed on a new EU strategy for Egypt and Tunisia as well as other countries in the region.EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton has prepared a paper for the EU summit including measures that include more EU financial support, through the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developmnent, help with the training and exchange of students, the emergence of a vibrant civil society, more inclusive governance. Food security, further trade opening and mobility partnerships form part of the overall package.Ashton’s approach may be too modest and cautious for some but this is not the time to quibble over details. These can be worked out later, in cooperation with the new emerging leadership in these countries.Events in North Africa and the Middle East undoubtedly represent an enormous challenge for the EU. Oil prices are rising and there is concern about the number of North Africans seeking asylum in Italy and other southern European countries.Europe’s global reputation is also at stake. How Europe responds to events in the south will determine how it is perceived not only by its immediate neighbours but by EU-watchers in many other parts of the world.

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Finally, some EU action on Libya (Originally published 03/03/11)

Belated EU unity has been found on sanctions against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and his family, the EU has earmarked ten million euros in humanitarian aid to refugees stranded on Libya’s borders with Tunisia and Egypt while Britain and France are creating an air and sea bridge to take some of the Egyptian refugees back to their homes.Europe now also needs a new strategy to deal with the influx of North African refugees arriving on its shores. This is not the moment for hand-wringing over the large number of new arrivals, irresponsible talk of an “invasion” from the south or laments over the failure of multiculturalism in Europe. Urgent and intelligent measures are needed to help southern European countries provide better treatment to the new arrivals. This means more EU assistance for Italy and other southern European states and a quick agreement on a share-out of the refugees.The EU’s humanitarian operations are laudable but Europe has acquired an unfavourable reputation worldwide for the cold welcome it extends to many foreigners. Strict Schengen visa requirements hit foreign business leaders, students and artists. This is a chance to prove that “Fortress Europe” can open its doors to those in trouble. It is also about being a good neighbour.Clearly, the Italian government – and others like Malta, Greece and Spain – cannot be left alone to deal with the problem. Italy’s Interior Minister Roberto Maroni says his country could soon find itself “on its knees” if the refugee “invasion” continues. He has asked for a solidarity fund to assist countries that are the first to absorb the influx of refugees. However, not for the first time, EU states are divided.Meanwhile, Mustapha Nabli, Tunisia's newly appointed central bank governor, says that instead of crumbling under pressure, Europe could in fact benefit from the wave of new workers. “So it is a positive sum game, it is not a negative sum game,” he says.It’s a point worth making – but one that is unlikely to find an echo in today’s Europe. In remarks that have reverberated across the world, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Sarkozy have said Europe's experience in building a multicultural society has been a failure.The three EU leaders are right to question the bloc's patchy history of integration. But they make no constructive suggestions to improve the situation. And they put the onus on immigrants to melt in or get out. However, European governments have not done enough to embrace and promote diversity, enforce anti-discrimination legislation and create a more inclusive labour market.The reality of multicultural Europe is less gloomy than Merkel and others claim. True, some young Muslims fall prey to radical ideologies while others demand special privileges, including the establishment of faith-based schools, permission to wear the burka and segregation by gender at public swimming pools and hospitals. Tribal customs prevail in some communities.However, across Europe, Muslims and other minorities are becoming more active in demanding rights, organizing themselves into pressure groups, and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural and sports icons. This new generation of European Muslims believes it important to focus on citizenship and integration rather than on religious identity alone.The irony is that while politicians fret about immigration and foreigners, low fertility rates and an ageing population mean that Europe needs young foreign workers to fill labor shortages in both the skilled and unskilled sectors of the economy and to fund Europe's creaking pension and health care systems.It’s easy to consider tough new frontier controls, repatriation schemes and other measures to keep out North Africa’s refugees. But EU policymakers should also focus on job-generating investments in the region, come up with a more intelligent common immigration policy and possibly seek changes to the Dublin Convention to ease current pressure on first-arrival border states.EU leaders speak loudly and often about projecting European values of democracy and human rights. It’s worth remembering the people of North Africa are voicing these very aspirations.

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EU SHOULD BUILD A REAL “RING OF FRIENDS” IN THE SOUTHERN MED (Originally published 23/02/11)

To create a real “ring of friends” in Europe’s neighbourhood, the EU should stop dithering and act quickly to help meet peoples’ aspirations in North Africa and the Middle East.Lecturing Gaddafi on human rights or fretting over immigration from the region – as EU foreign ministers did earlier this week - is not good enough. As his long rant on Libyan TV illustrated, Muammar Gaddafi is not listening. The EU’s focus should be on urgent, bold international action to stop the massacre in Libya. Innocent lives depend on it – and so does the EU’s much-damaged credibility in the region.It’s not too late: Europeans can throw their weight behind existing initiatives such as appeals by Libya's deputy ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim al-Dabashi, for international intervention in the country, including the establishment of a no-fly zone to help stop "a real genocide". Former British foreign secretary David Owen wants a UN Charter Chapter 7 intervention - meaning the authorisation of both military and non-military means to “restore international peace and security” – to be enforced by NATO air forces. UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon has warned, meanwhile, that the killing of civilians is “a serious violation of international humanitarian law”, opening the way for action in the International Criminal Court.European countries, having supplied Libya with weapons that are now being used for internal repression, have a special responsibility to make sure the killing stops. It is also a question of acting on the “right to protect” principle espoused by Europe.Elsewhere in the volatile region, visits to Tunisia and Egypt by senior EU and national policymakers are useful in establishing contact with both countries’ transitional authorities. Consultation with the US, World Bank and others is also helpful in forging a coordinated new international blueprint for the region.But actions speak louder than words. Moaning about the danger of increased immigration flows, the threat of extremists on Europe’s borders and other recent comments made, among others, by Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, reinforce the increasing perception worldwide that Europe is inward-looking and fearful of change. They also reveal a striking lack of understanding of events in the region.To start off, the EU should ditch the discredited “Mediterranean Union” dreamed up by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The blueprint is timid, technical and out-dated. The EU focus should now be on further opening up its market to southern Mediterranean exports, including farm products, making job-generating investments in the region and unleashing the potential and energy of the much-trammeled private sector. Among other things, such schemes will help stop the desperate human tide into southern Spain and Italy.The outlines of a new strategy – minus any reference to bigger trade benefits or increased aid for the region – are included in the statement released by foreign ministers on February 21. However, the focus needs to move from the backing of personalities and the military to the building of institutions, ensuring the rule of law, and strengthening the judicial system. Support for civil society, which Middle East governments have always opposed, should be reinforced and the fight against corruption emphasized. The EU can also share its experience in regional integration.Many of these ideas have been tried in the past – and failed because of lack of support from wary governments in the region. Hopefully, the changing landscape in North Africa and the Middle East means Europe will soon be able to engage with more credible and accountable state authorities as well as entrepreneurs and civil society representatives who are ready to embrace change.The EU has experience in promoting economic and political reform in eastern Europe – it should now be ready to give similar support and advice to its neighbours in the south.

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ASIAN LESSONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST: AFTER CHAOS, DEMOCRACY (Originally published 09/02/11)

European and American policymakers worried about further chaos and confusion in Tunisia, Egypt and other Arab states should take a close look at the way years of authoritarian rule gave way to democracy in three leading Asian nations: Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea.All three Asian countries went through long and difficult transition periods following the fall of entrenched, corrupt, dictators. There were riots, uncertainty and pain. The economy suffered. The army watched warily as protests spread.Today the three countries are functioning democracies, allies of the West and active participants in Asia’s rise. Historical parallels are never perfect of course; Arab countries, with their mix of disgruntled young people yearning for change, under-developed or non-existent political parties and well-organised Islamists present a complex challenge to Europe and America.Not surprisingly, ever since Tunisia’s “jasmine revolution” – and with the Iranian “Islamic revolution” circa 1979 on their minds - policymakers in Brussels and Washington have been struggling to balance their support for change and democracy with a desire for stability and continuity in the region.There is justified concern that anti-government protests could be hijacked by Islamists. But also unjustified assertions that the region is not “ready for democracy” and that chaos will be destructive and long-enduring. The West’s mixed message risks feeding a perception on the streets of Cairo and elsewhere that Europe and the US are putting stability ahead of democratic ideals and leaving hopes of nurturing peaceful, gradual change in the hands of an old guard which has little reason to speed up the process.Such sentiments do not augur well for future relations between the West and the Arab world. Better and wiser therefore to give a supportive hand, sound advice and good counsel to the real democrats than to throw a lifeline to those clinging to power.For inspiration, Arab and Western policymakers should read up on recent Indonesian history and especially the country’s successful –albeit sometimes painful - transformation to democracy following the fall of President Suharto in 1998.Also worth a read is the success of the “People Power movement” in the Philippines in 1986 which drove President Ferdinand Marcos into exile and installed Corazon Aquino as the new president. In South Korea, meanwhile, the democratic uprising of June 1987 represented a nation-wide uprising and the main goal was to make the authorities to give green light to democratisation.Despite their flaws, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea are proof that countries can change direction, peoples’ aspirations for democracy can be met and that chaos can give way to peace and development.For lessons on managing change and transformation, perhaps Arab and Western policymakers should stopping fretting about Iran and start consulting some of Asia’s new democracies.

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