Time to walk the talk on Agenda 2030
Last year’s adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was an important milestone in the struggle to create a better world. The rhetoric was uplifting. Many promises of quick action were made. It’s time now to start walking the heroic talk.
As the great and the good of the global development community prepare to meet in Brussels in mid-June for the “European Development Days”, a massive brainstorm on new ways to deal with the world’s most pressing development challenges, the focus must turn from words to action.
Implementing the transformative Agenda 2030 for social, economic and environmental development agreed at the United Nations last November requires loads of money. And the funds must start flowing fast.
Financing of the earlier Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) agreed in 2000 was mostly a traditional affair. Yes, there were some efforts made to be creative, but the focus was largely on Official Development Aid (ODA), disbursed by traditional Western donors. The flows were from the north to the south.
The world in 2016 is a different place. Aid budgets in industrialised countries are under pressure. And in any case, financing for the 17 SDGs and 169 targets will require much more than ODA.
That’s because the SDGs are not only about ending poverty and hunger, and improving health, education and gender equality, but also about reducing inequality, making cities safe, addressing climate change and promoting peaceful societies.
Traditional ODA will remain crucial but governments and other donors need to start demonstrating creativity and innovation to find more money and get more bang for their buck.
So where is the additional money going to come from? Public, private, domestic and international funding sources need to be tapped. More than they do today, governments will have to work with business in so-called public-private partnerships to get things moving.
The private sector plays an important part by focusing on infrastructure, energy, agriculture, urban development, water systems and technology. But these private incentives must be aligned with public goals to create a policy framework that encourages for-profit investments in these areas.
Initiatives such as the UN Global Compact can be utilised by governments to partner with private sector and mobilise finance to achieve the SDGs.
Fortunately, as traditional donors struggle to maintain aid flows, countries like China, India, Turkey and Korea are emerging as an important source of funds for poorer countries. The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is working hand in hand with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to finance desperately-needed infrastructure in developing countries.
South-south cooperation plays a pivotal role in helping countries to share experiences and promote common development. The new actors must therefore be made part of the global conversation on development, not excluded as outsiders.
In addition to traditional aid flows, foreign direct investments (FDI) in emerging countries are on the rise as are impact investments, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities and philanthropy.
Remittances from workers abroad are a huge boon to their countries of origin. However, the cost of remitting funds remains extremely high. These barriers must be reduced.
Meanwhile, at home governments must be put under additional pressure to increase domestic resource mobilisation through more effective tax collection and anti-corruption measures.
The focus is also on changes in international tax rules and practices to ensure fair treatment for developing countries and strengthening the ability of developing countries to prosecute tax evaders and renegotiate contracts.
Innovative financing includes taxes on carbon, air travel and financial transactions. Pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds are also a potential funding pool.
Official development assistance remains a critical funding source, particularly for low-income countries, providing 70 per cent of all external funding, as well as a third of public expenditure available to governments
The SDGs are wide-ranging and important. They will have a critical impact on what the world will look like in 2030. Their implementation will require more money than is currently available from official aid budgets, the mobilisation of domestic revenues in developing countries and more public-private partnerships.
The outlook is fairly positive. After all, while not all of the previous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were successfully translated into reality, the MDGs have contributed, among other things, to reducing extreme poverty and halving the number of annual deaths of children under five.
Implementing Agenda 2030 will not be easy. It will require money, certainly but more than that it will need political will and determination.
China-Europe: a curious conversation
Early April in Beijing and the sky is unusually clear and blue, cherry blossoms are in full bloom and the roads are eerily quiet. It’s “tomb sweeping” day and most of my Chinese friends and colleagues are on holiday, commemorating their ancestors.I’m in Beijing for meetings on EU-China relations. I need to get my thoughts together, write up my talking points for the upcoming seminars. But I can’t concentrate. And since all offices and shops are shut, it’s the perfect moment to visit the Great Wall.And so here I am, climbing up the long and winding road that takes me to the bus stop that takes me to the cable car that takes me — finally — to one small but majestic portion of the Great Wall.It’s breath-taking. All the pictures I’ve seen do not prepare me for the magnificent reality. Like everyone else I’ve looked up the impressive facts and figures. The Wall is old, long and high — and every stone, every inch has an interesting story to tell. But seeing is believing, and the Wall, with its majestic vistas and amazing construction, does not disappoint.I like the legends and the history. But I’m more focused on modern-day China and the enormous challenge of economic transformation that President Xi Jinping has embarked on. I’m also watching my fellow tourists who are slowly wheezing up the steep slope with me.We are a motley bunch. Chinese grandmas and grandpas with toddlers in tow, young lovers out on a date, foreign tourists from India, Indonesia and the Philippines and an attractive blonde woman on her own who stops every two minutes or so to take a selfie with the Wall as a backdrop. Who needs friends when you have a smartphone?The return journey to Beijing is complicated as the roads clog up with traffic and our driver struggles to find ingenious back roads to get us to the hotel. We get to see more cherry blossoms on the side roads, small carts full of fruit, strawberries for sale in tiny stalls. It’s like going back in time.Tomorrow Beijing will be back to normal, our driver warns. Beware of pollution and traffic jams, he says. Be prepared.I am. And not just for the congested roads and stinging eyes. I’m all geared up for some interesting discussions with Chinese academics and think tank representatives on relations between China and Europe.I’ve been tracking the ups and down of relations between Europe and China for many years and the EU-China “strategic partnership” continues to fascinate and intrigue me.Unlike the US, Europe doesn’t see China as a rival or competitor. Never having achieved the “super power” status, Europe isn’t too wary of the changed world order and the rise of China — and India, Asean and others.Europe isn’t an Asian power but an Asian partner, EU policymakers insist. There is much that the EU and China can do together on the bilateral level and on the global stage. Europe is a strong supporter of China’s new economic transformation agenda. Its mutual say Chinese officials who insist that Beijing wants a stronger and more integrated Europe.Both sides are cooperating on a range of issues, including China’s plans to build a “One Belt, One Road” connectivity network linking Europe and Asia. There is heady talk of an EU-China partnership on urbanisation, building 5G technology and warmer people-to-people relations.This is heartening — but its only part of the story. In the public discussions in Beijing, Chinese academics make no secret of their anger at Europe’s stance on two key issues: the EU’s reluctance to grant China “market economy status” and Europe’s failure to lift the arms embargo imposed on Beijing after the Tiananmen Square clampdown in 1989.There are accusations that Europe is too easily swayed by American pressure to take a tougher stance against China. And since it is not a “hard” security actor, some Chinese colleagues insist that the EU has no business making statements on rising tensions in the South China Seas.Europeans, for their part, complain about market access restrictions facing European exporters and investors, the slow pace of economic reform in China and worry about the country’s increased assertiveness on the regional stage. There are worries about China’s overcapacity in sectors such as steel which is making life difficult for Europe’s steelmakers.But while the talk sometimes gets tough, it’s clear that Europe and China need each other. Trade between the two sides is worth about 1.5 billion euros a day. An estimated three million jobs in Europe depend on relations with China. Beijing needs Europe’s intellectual expertise, technology and experience.Both sides face the challenge of ensuring growth and jobs, looking after their ageing population while also providing hope and employment for young people. There is talk of synergies between the EU 2020 agenda for growth and jobs and China’s plans for a “new normal” of lower but high-quality, sustainable and inclusive growth.As European and Chinese leaders prepare to meet in Beijing in July for their 18th summit, it is clear that EU-China relations have grown and matured over the years. Brussels and Beijing talk to each other on multiple topics and in multiple fora.There are disagreements and occasional bitterness and sparring. But the conversation is intense, much more so than the EU’s relations with other Asian nations. There is mutual curiosity. And the beginnings of a mutual understanding.In a world marked by inter-state rivalries, power struggles and competition between nations, can anyone really — and realistically — ask for more?
View from abroad : How to get a good democratic transition (Originally published 17/10/2015 at Dawn.com)
So what’s democracy all about? And is there a magic formula for ensuring a successful transition from authoritarian rule to democracy?If you’ve ever asked that question and fretted about the state of your nation, pick up a fascinating just-released book From Authoritarian Rule Toward Democratic Governance: Learning from Political Leaders by International IDEA — the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance — which tells you just how to ensure successful democratic transitions.Authors of the in-depth study, based on a conversation with 13 former presidents from nine countries on four continents, have come up with 10 lessons on what works and what doesn’t work when nations embark on the often-perilous path to democracy.A quick glance at the headlines, including the chaos in Egypt, violence in Syria and Libya and still fragile transitions in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Myanmar make clear that Democratic Transitions should be obligatory bedside reading for all would-be democrats, wherever they are.And while some countries like Pakistan may pride themselves on having moved from democratic transition to democracy, I would ask: really? Given the state of governance in the country, the book should be compulsory reading not just for the prime minister and his advisers but all opposition politicians — and army men — with aspirations to lead the country.After having talked to men — there are no women leaders who were interviewed but there is a chapter on the role of women in political transformations — Abraham Lowenthal from the Brookings Institution and Sergio Bitar, a former minister in successive Chilean governments, have come up with what they term “10 imperatives for crafting democratic transitions”.So what are the lessons learned?First, opposition leaders should combat repression and dictatorship by moving forward incrementally. In order to combat repression and push for openings, opposition leaders have to exert continuous pressure but be prepared to make compromises to move ahead. Transition-making is not a task for the dogmatic. Dismissing maximalist positions call for more political courage than hewing to impractical principles.Second, throughout the campaign for democracy, project a positive and inclusive vision for democratic change rather than focusing on past grievances. Keep hammering home such as hope and vision to combat the pervasive fear among people who may prefer authoritarian calm — even army rule — over democratic turmoil.Third, build convergence and coalitions among democratic forces. Connect to social movements — workers, students, women, human rights groups and religious institutions — in fashioning the democratising movement’s aims and programmes.Four, create spaces for dialogue between democratic movements and authoritarian regimes — secretly at first if necessary as was the case in South Africa. Informal dialogues can help members of the authoritarian regime and the democratic opposition to understand each other and build a working relationship.Five, act firmly but carefully to achieve democratic civilian control of security services. Transition leaders should take early and decisive action to bring the armed forces, police and intelligence agencies under civilian authority and control while recognising their legitimate roles. The army’s focus should be on external defence and international peacekeeping, not on internal security.Six, craft workable constitutions through an inclusive process and engage a wide range of participants in drafting a constitutional document while also working hard to respond to the core concerns of key groups. Also, provide some assurance to elements and supporters of the former regime that their fundamental economic and institutional concerns and individual rights will be respected under the rule of law.Seven, manage economic tensions to combine growth with equity. Alleviating poverty and dealing with unemployment and inflation often come into conflict with economic reforms needed for future growth. To deal with this tension, adopt social measures to help the poorest and the most vulnerable elements of society.Eight, invest early on in building and institutionalising vibrant political parties given their key role in creating and sustaining democracies — provided they do not become vehicles for individual political figures and their democracies.Nine, to meet the needs for justice and memory, avoid wholescale prosecution of former officials. Instead, establish transparent legal processes to tackle violations of rights, provide recognition and reparation to victims and bring violators to justice.Finally, draw on external support from government and non-governmental actors but remember that democracy cannot be imposed from the outside. International actors cannot take the place of domestic initiatives, the study warns. But they can encourage and provide discreet advice. What foreign powers must not do is undertake impatient and counterproductive interventions.As for the qualities of leadership, the book notes that there is not one model for a transition leader. He or she needs to be cool-headed, pragmatic but also full of resolve and courage. Some had the self-confidence to take difficult decisions, others relied on competent associates.All of those interviewed, underlined that top political executives did not work on their own but rather creatively and constructively with many others.And finally a word of warning for those preparing mass protests and demonstrations: democracy does not emerge directly or easily from crowds in the street. Crafting democracies takes vision, time, hard work, persistence, skill — some luck — and above all leadership.
VIEW FROM ABROAD: Let’s focus on the 'mother of all' SDGs (Originally published 19/09/2015 at Dawn.com)
In just one week, world leaders will gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York to adopt the much-anticipated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) designed to steer global economic, social and environmental policies over the next 15 years.The SDGs are important and their implementation will have a critical impact on what the world will look like in 2030. After all, the previous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) certainly contributed, among other things, to reducing extreme poverty and halving the number of annual deaths of children under five.And yet. Promises about the future are fine but I can’t help wondering: shouldn’t the focus in New York be on the need for urgent global action to tackle a raging refugee crisis which is affecting not just Europe but number of countries, including many in the developing world?The UN should use next week’s meeting to craft one over-arching “mother of all SDGs” which would tackle the deep, structural problems — poverty, inequality, conflicts, climate change — which lie behind the world’s growing refugee problem.Instead of making speeches on the SDGs, world leaders would be more credible if they hammered out a global strategy to ensure a decent, dignified life for the millions of refugees on the move today — while also taking action to deal with the wars, conflict and persecution which cause people to flee their homes.Such a blueprint should be about the current plight of the refugees — mostly from Syria, Iraq, Eritrea and Afghanistan — who are desperately seeking shelter in Europe but also in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and many African countries.But it should be about much more as well. It should focus on the deficiencies in current global development policies which have helped to provoke the current disastrous situation.In fact, the world body doesn’t have to add on another — eighteenth — SDG which focuses specifically on refugees. It could quite simply and forcefully put its full weight behind the urgent need to link the implementation of the SDGs to the resolution of the refugee crisis.Certainly, there will need to be a sharper focus on fragile states. As Gideon Rabinowitz from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) points out in a recent blog, “although certainly not its primary cause, the international community’s inadequate support for countries facing humanitarian and conflict-related challenges has contributed to this [refugee] crisis”.Rabinowitz underlines that funding for food vouchers for Syrian refugees has been slashed. Aid to fragile states is down.At a recent conference on the SDGs held in Brussels, there was agreement that the refugee crisis should lead to greater emphasis on peace and conflict resolution in the SDGs.“The crisis is actually a test for many of the SDGs — some of the social ones and education, health, things like that,” said James Mackie, Senior Adviser on EU Development Policy at the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM). “But the one I would really focus on would be SDG 16 on conflict, peace, justice and inclusive institutions. I think that’s where the real solution to this crisis is, and we should learn that lesson looking forward.”Certainly, attention at the moment is on European governments’ messy and discordant responses. Hungary’s odious mistreatment of the refugees is one cruel facet of the story, Germany’s still-humane reaction is another.Most “ordinary” people are going out of their way to welcome the refugees even as the Far Right screams blue murder.The sad truth is that Europe is overwhelmed by the number of people seeking entry, the collapse of its cherished Schengen border-free system and the need to rapidly craft a new and more intelligent asylum and immigration policy.All this will take time. Speedy decision-making is not something the EU is good at.But what about others? Where is the compassionate global response that could be expected, especially from Muslim Middle Eastern nations which have taken only a few escapees from the brutal conflict they are helping to finance in Syria. Saudi Arabia has offered Germany funds to build 200 mosques. Hopefully, Berlin will say no.Japan took in eleven asylum seekers last year although Tokyo faces labour shortages and the huge problem of an ageing population. The US has been slow and lumbering in its grudging decision to take in about 10,000 Syrians.Little can be expected meanwhile from Southeast Asian countries which were at loggerheads only a few months ago over their reluctance to house the Rohingya fleeing ethnic strife in Myanmar.The problem won’t go away, however. The UNHCR has warned that that worldwide displacement is at the highest level ever recorded, with the number of people forcibly displaced at the end of 2014 rising to a staggering 59.5 million compared to 51.2 million a year earlier and 37.5 million a decade ago.The increase represents the biggest leap ever seen in a single year. Moreover, the report said the situation was likely to worsen still further.Since early 2011, the main reason for the acceleration has been the war in Syria, now the world’s single-largest driver of displacement.If they are to mean anything to anyone in the coming years, the SDGs must focus on preventing, managing and resolving the many conflicts and the many inter-connected challenges of poverty, inequality and climate change which are devastating the world.So here’s my advice to the great and the good as they head for New York: tone down the rhetoric, tear up your speeches. Remember your speeches and the SDGs will be meaningless unless the new set of global development priorities also help tackle the reasons behind the global refugee crisis.
View from Abroad: All aboard the Silk Road express (Originally published 27/06/2015 at dawn.com)
Europe has been slow in its response to China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative. This may be about to change. If both sides play their cards right, the EU-China Summit on June 29 could kick-start a much-needed conversation on synergies between China’s ambitious vision of an interconnected world and Europe’s mega investment plan to boost jobs and growth.The rewards of such cooperation could be enormous. Increased EU-China connectivity will increase bilateral trade between the two partners, create new business opportunities for European and Chinese enterprises, and boost employment, growth and development in Europe and China — and in countries along the routes.To start the dialogue, Europeans will have to take the long view. With the possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone getting ever closer, Britain’s plans for a referendum on its EU membership becoming more strident and growing discord over how to deal with the refugee crisis, European policymakers are thinking local, not global.It’s not just about domestic difficulties; Europe’s neighbourhood is also on fire.And yet, if Europe is to fulfil its ambitions of becoming a global actor while also meeting the domestic imperative of generating stronger economic growth and creating jobs, the EU policymakers must look beyond current emergencies to Europe’s medium-to-long-term needs.This is the logic behind the $315bn investment plan drawn up by European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker to modernise Europe’s infrastructure. With its focus on investments in energy, digital, transport and innovation, the blueprint has the potential to revitalise European economies over the next decade.But Europe can’t possibly do it alone. This is why it is important that EU governments, business leaders and academics start paying more attention to China’s headline-grabbing ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative — and ways in which this could fit in with the EU’s own investment masterplan.After months of staying relatively silent on the subject, the EU policymakers are beginning to talk about — and explore — the advantages of synergies between the Juncker plan and the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative.Clearly, joining forces will unleash more resources. Implementing the EU investment plan will require the mobilisation of billions of euros of private and public funds as well as capital from the European Investment Bank (EIB). As European Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen said recently, the EU is hoping to attract Chinese investors to stump up some of the capital for the Juncker plan. The point has also been made by European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom as well as by the European Commission president himself.The hope is clearly that the EU connectivity projects will be able to interest both the Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The EU is particularly interested in meeting the long-term infrastructure needs in southern, eastern and central European countries and in the Balkan states. Greece as well as some members of the so-called ‘16+1’ group of central and eastern European countries have already indicated their strong interest in such Chinese investments. If all goes according to plan, the eastern part of Europe could connect seamlessly with the western projects on the new Silk Road.As the different ‘One Belt, One Road’ projects come on stream, business opportunities will open up for construction, transport and logistical companies — including European enterprises — across the route. EU-China trade is likely to get an important boost from the expected reduction in transport time and costs while EU exporters and investors will gain access to new growth markets in inland China and Central Asia. Such a development would give an added fillip to the current EU-China negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty.As it passes through often-volatile and less-developed countries and regions, the ‘One Belt, One Road’ has the potential to unleash economic potential across the way, bringing stability as well as growth to Europe — and China’s — neighbourhood. Such a conversation could be especially useful within the 53-member Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) where connectivity is also climbing up the agenda.It’s not just about money, technology and goodwill, however. The EU insists that investment projects selected for financing under the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative must meet strict governance, environmental and technical standards, and result in sustainable development.Moving from dialogue to action will require time and effort — and willingness to compromise. China has taken its time in putting flesh on the bones of the project and in explaining its many facets to a closely-watching world. A more detailed dialogue is now necessary before the EU and China get down to identifying and working on the nuts and bolts of their cooperation. Given their different working methods and cultures, European and Chinese policymakers, bankers and business leaders won’t find it easy to work together.The devil will certainly be in the detail. Expectations will have to be managed on both sides. Selecting projects will be difficult and time-consuming. And there will be no quick results.But in a world desperate for money, jobs and modern infrastructure, China has once again shown its capacity to surprise and to think big. Europeans must come on board the Silk Road ‘express’, not just watch it from the sidelines.
View From Abroad: Pivotal moments on the global agenda (Originally published 06/06/2015 at dawn.com)
Read the headlines and there’s no doubt: the world is a nasty, violent, unequal place where man kills man and women are either victims of violence, discrimination or quite simply invisible.Take a closer look and it’s equally clear that despite the killing, exploitation and bloodshed, there are worthy people struggling to build a better world.Every so often, the global community has once-in-a-lifetime chance to aim high and set ambitions for a new way of living and working together. To create hope, sketch out new horizons, set new goals.In Brussels this week, the focus has been on a number of milestones, make-or-break global events which merit stronger attention and scrutiny.Two stand out because of their global significance. First, in September this year, the United Nations General Assembly will decide on a new, post-2015 agenda for sustainable development.The so-called sustainable development goals (SDGs) will take the place of the Millennium Development Goals agreed by the UN at the turn of the century. Implementation of the MDGs has been patchy, uneven and not-too impressive.But for the last fifteen years, emerging nations have been engaged in an uphill battle to make progress on reducing poverty, improving health care and access to education. And more.The SDGs under discussion are more in number, higher in ambition and target not just developing countries, but also developed ones.Second, in December at an international meeting in Paris, the focus will be on fighting climate change by committing to new targets for reducing CO2 emissions, both in industrialised and emerging countries.It’s not going to be easy, given the different levels of development, different energy mixes and economic priorities — but if agreement is reached, it will be a strong sign that when push comes to shove, rich and poor nations can work together on tackling an issue of immense global importance.Issues related to the financing of the SDGs will be discussed at a conference in Addis Ababa in Ethiopia in early July. Clearly, if the new SDGs — there are 17 in all, with 167 targets — are going to be implemented, more money will be needed.Official Development Aid will still be important — but won’t be enough. Funding will have to come from the private sector, from non-governmental organisations, from private individuals. Creative financing will have to be the buzzword.There is more. Women’s rights are climbing higher and higher up the global agenda. In Brussels this week, the focus will be on the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 which addresses the inordinate impact of war on women but also spotlights the pivotal role of women in conflict management, conflict resolution and sustainable peace.At a Nato conference, discussions focused on how the UNSCR 1325 could help to boost the participation of women in the Alliance’s armed forces.Only a day later, at an EU debate, the emphasis was on using the same resolution to ensure the participation of women in peace negotiations and the protection of women at times of conflict.It’s been fifteen years since the UNSCR 1325 was adopted. And when the review takes place in September this year, countries will be asked to show just what they have done to shelter women from the horrible effects of war and conflict.The 20th anniversary of the adoption of the wider Beijing Platform of Action on women’s rights later this year will also provide much food for thought.Although some progress has been made, the struggle for women’s development and empowerment continues to face many obstacles due to government neglect, discrimination, family traditions and actions by religious authorities.The situation is particularly serious in fragile or conflict-affected states where because of conflict, weak governance, political instability, oppressive practices and traditions, sections of society and in particular women are marginalised and under-represented.The good news is that achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls are recognised important priorities in the post-2015 development agenda.But how committed are governments to giving priority attention to women and girls in their national development plans?Finally, inequality. There is consensus that we live in an unequal world. The world economy may be growing fairly rapidly but there are increasingly vast differences in income, equal opportunities, education, skills and access to health within countries and between countries.Inequality has been identified as one of the biggest threats to the world economy and global stability and is a salient issue in the post-2015 development debates.The focus is often mainly on inequality in emerging nations but widening inequalities and social imbalances are also evident in Europe and have worsened because of the Eurozone’s economic woes.A study by Oxfam released earlier this year warns that global wealth is increasingly being concentrated in the hands of a small wealthy elite.“These wealthy individuals have generated and sustained their vast riches through their interests and activities in a few important economic sectors, including finance and pharmaceuticals/healthcare,” the report warns.So while the rich get richer — the poor struggle to make ends meet and the middle classes live in a fragile environment where any small negative movement can bring them crashing down to the bottom of the ladder.The important international conferences coming up over the next six months will set the world on a course for conflict and discord — or, hopefully, lead to joint efforts to tackle some of the key challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The choice is ours.
View From Abroad: Getting connected — the secret to reviving Asia-Europe ties (Originally published 16/05/2015 at dawn.com)
To count in an increasingly complex and interdependent world, you have to be connected. This is true for individuals, institutions, companies, continents, regions and countries. The growth of social media sites is testimony to the increased connectivity of individuals and groups.No connections translate into lack of influence. It means no voice, no role and no chance to make an impact. What’s true for individuals is also true for countries. The nations which have clout in this rapidly-changing 21st century are those that are connected to the rest of the world.That’s why the European Union is busy breaking down internal barriers to trade, services and the movement of goods among its 28-member states. It is also the reason that the EU and the United States are negotiating an ambitious and trade-boosting Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and it is also why the US is also hoping to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) negotiations by the end of the year.Asians are embarked on a headline-grabbing connectivity agenda of their own. The Connectivity Masterplan drawn up by Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) is impressive in its scope and content. And of course China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative is making waves worldwide.As these different initiatives illustrate, connectivity can and does take many forms. The first focus is clearly on transport — building roads, bridges, railways as well as maritime and air routes. There are also digital networks.Connectivity is also about building networks that connect people, schools and colleges, media, civil society organisations, businesses, policymakers and institutions.Being connected is good for the economy by helping to boost trade and investments and creating jobs. It is good for creativity and innovation. It is good for fostering mutual understanding. And, of course, it is very good for peace and stability.And that’s why is encouraging to see the attention now being paid to Asia-Europe connectivity. The topic is high on the agenda of Asem (Asia Europe Meetings) and is being widely recognised as a vital element in the efforts to revive Asem for its third decade.Certainly, compared to 1996 when Asem was first launched in Bangkok in 1996 or even 10 years ago, there is now a stronger EU-Asian conversation on trade, business, security and culture. As Asem celebrates its 20th anniversary in Mongolia next year, connectivity is expected to be an important driver for further Asia-Europe cooperation.Asia-Europe economic connectivity has grown. With total Asia-Europe trade in 2012 estimated at 1.37 trillion euros, Asia has become the EU’s main trading partner, accounting for a third of total trade and surpassing the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). More than a quarter of European outward investments head for Asia while Asia’s emerging global players are seeking out business deals in Europe.The increased connectivity is reflected in the mutual Asia-Europe quest to negotiate Free Trade Agreements and investment accords. The EU and China are currently negotiating a bilateral investment agreement. The FTAs concluded by the EU with South Korea and Singapore and similar deals under negotiation with Japan, India and individual Asean countries are important in consolidating EU-Asia relations.Beyond trade and economics, Asia and Europe are linked through an array of cooperation accords. Discussions on climate change, pandemics, illegal immigration, maritime security, urbanisation and green growth, among others, are frequent between multiple government ministries and agencies in both regions, reflecting a growing recognition that 21st century challenges can only be tackled through improved global governance and, failing that, through “patchwork governance” involving cross-border and cross-regional alliances.Importantly, connectivity is the new Asem buzzword. The significance of Asia-Europe connectivity — including digital connectivity — was underscored by the Asem summit in Milan last year, with leaders underlining the contribution increased ties could make to economic prosperity and sustainable development and to promoting free and seamless movement of people, trade, investment, energy, information, knowledge and ideas and greater institutional linkages.The summit urged the establishment of an integrated, sustainable, secure, efficient and convenient air, maritime and land transportation system, including intermodal solutions, in and between Asia and Europe. It also noted the usefulness of an exchange of best practices and experiences on areas of common interest, relating for example to the governance of the EU Single Market and the implementation of the Master Plan on Asean Connectivity.A meeting of Asem summit in Milan transport ministers held in Riga discussed a common vision for the development of transport networks between Asia and Europe and emphasised the significance of connectivity between the two regions for achieving economic prosperity and sustainable development. The importance of railway links was especially underlined.Certainly, much of the talk on Asia-Europe connectivity is centred on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans for the Silk Road Economic Belt and a 21st century maritime Silk Road (termed together “One Belt, One Road”) aimed at building two economic corridors with important development implications for many nations, creates new opportunities for further China-EU cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, trade and investment as well as energy and resources.The initiative raises many questions: how will Europe benefit from the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt? What is the potential for synergies between the Chinese and European infrastructure and connectivity policies? Which sectors are likely to benefit most from such cooperation? What will be the role of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in financing the “One Belt, One Road” initiative? What is the role of youth and women in the drive to connect Asia and Europe?Is it only about infrastructure or can Asem also encourage institutional and people-to-people connectivity? The answer was given at a meeting of Asem education ministers — also in Riga — which highlighted the importance Asia-Europe cooperation in areas like mobility of students, teachers, researchers, ideas and knowledge. Finally, while increased connectivity would offer opportunities for business and trade, the darker security implications linked to the cross-border movement of arms, drugs and terrorists also need to be addressed.
Shada Islam interview: ‘AIIB will bring important input to infrastructure investment'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyFf1t1VnSw
View from abroad: When it comes to Hungary, Europe should practise what it preaches (Originally published 09/05/2015 at dawn.com)
Believe it or not, there is more to the European Union than the recent elections in Britain and London’s erratic and volatile relationship with Brussels.The EU is also not just about the dire financial and economic straits in which Greece finds itself — and unrelenting speculation about whether or not Athens is ready to exit the troubled Eurozone.In addition to fears of a Brexit and Grexit, Berlin is mired in a new spying scandal which threatens to engulf German Chancellor Angela Merkel.And, of course, the EU is under attack over its less-than-impressive response to the humanitarian tragedy unfolding on its southern shores as hundreds of refugees and economic migrants drown even as they seek to enter “Fortress Europe”.The EU’s southern and eastern neighbourhoods are in turmoil. Relations with Russia remain tense and EU governments have no influence over events in the Middle East.These and other troubles facing the 28-nation bloc capture the media spotlight and lead to endless hand-wringing over the EU’s future.All of these troubles deserve attention. But, interestingly, neither the media nor EU policymakers appear to be paying serious attention to a country — Hungary — whose leaders appears intent on defying many of the key values — human rights, democracy and tolerance — that the EU holds so dear.It is an important paradox. The EU wields enormous power over countries which are seeking membership of the 28-nation club. But once a so-called “candidate country” joins the Union, Brussels loses much of its influence over the future direction of a “member state”.This is exactly what has happened with Hungary and some other “new” EU countries which joined the Union earlier this decade.Before it entered the EU club, Hungary had to meet very strict criteria on issues like democracy and adherence to the principles of a market economy. Human rights standards had to be adhered to. Every move made by the government was scrutinised and judged.No longer. Hungary is now accused of a host of sins — and while Brussels often chides and scolds, it has little — actually it has NO — power to change the course of events in the country.There is no doubt: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the bad boy of Europe. He cultivates close links with President Vladimir Putin at a time when the rest of the EU is seeking to distance itself from the mercurial Russian leader.Putin’s visit to Hungary earlier this year was widely seen as a defiance of the EU’s decision to keep cool diplomatic relations with Russia.More controversially, Orban has sent shock waves across the EU by insisting that the bloc should protect its borders against immigration by using military force because it doesn’t need new migrants.While other EU leaders in Brussels struggled to come up with a coherent plan to stem the tide of immigrants seeking shelter in Europe, Orban urged tougher measures.“Europe’s borders must be protected. We cannot be like a piece of cheese with holes in it so that they [immigrants] can be crossing in and out. Serious police and military steps must be taken and also steps that they remain at home,” he said.Going even further, Orban said the Hungarian government wanted to be able to detain all those who cross borders illegally, something that is only allowed in exceptional cases under EU law. It also wanted to have migrants work to cover the costs of their accommodation or detention in Hungary.In a questionnaire to be sent out to eight million citizens over 18 years of age, Hungarians will be asked to answer 12 questions on whether “the mismanagement of the immigration question by Brussels may have something to do with increased terrorism”.“The questions are leading and manipulative,” according to Dutch MEP Sophie In’ t Veld who said the whole questionnaire was “horrible”. Her colleague Cecilia Wikstrom, a Swedish liberal MEP, said it showed how Orban is distancing Hungary from Europe and “transforming Hungary into a mini-Russia”.There are suggestions that Orban, whose Fidesz party has seen a plunge in polls recently, is seeking to embrace issues championed by the far-right Jobbik party, the largest opposition force in Hungary.Hungary’s EU partners are equally vexed at the prime minister’s statements in favour of re-introducing the death penalty.Orban “should immediately make clear that this is not his intention. Would it be his intention, it would be a fight,” EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.Budapest has since then retracted Orban’s statements, saying it has no plans to restore the death penalty.Worryingly for Brussels, Orban has also staged an autocratic crackdown on the nation’s press, which the independent watchdog Freedom House now ranks as only “partly free”.While the EU has so far managed to keep Hungary in check, the country is a worrying example of how things can go very wrong in the heart of Europe and the European Union.EU officials and members of the European Parliament rant and rave about Hungary and Orban but the stark truth is that while the EU wields a huge stick before a country joins the club — demanding changes in government rules and regulations and overall conduct — its influence dims once a country becomes a member.So, while the talk in Brussels is understandably about Britain, Greece and Germany, it is time that EU leaders exerted some real pressure to bring Hungary in line with Europe’s standards of conduct.It’s about consistency, coherence in the EU and above all making sure that Europe practices what it preaches to the rest of the world.
Bandung and a changing world order
For proof that the world is a much-changed place, look no further than last week’s impressive Asia-Africa conference in Bandung, Indonesia, marking the 60th anniversary of the original Cold War era summit in the same city led by Indonesia’s then leader-Sukarno.The talk in Bandung six decades ago among representatives from twenty-nine Asian and African governments of Asian and African nations was of the role of the “Third World” in the Cold War, economic development, and decolonisation.The meeting’s final resolution laid the foundation for the nonaligned movement during the Cold War. The heady talk among leaders was on the potential for collaboration among Asian and African nations and their determination to reduce their reliance on Europe and North America.Fast forward to Bandung last week and replace references to the “Third World” with the more modern “emerging nations” and it’s clear that Asia and Africa have changed dramatically since 1955.The two regions – as well as Latin America – are simultaneously driving the transformation of the global landscape and thriving because of it.The mood may be morose in Washington and EU capitals – but Asia, Africa and Latin America are on a roll. Trade is booming – including between the three regions, investments are pouring in and an emerging middle class is changing social, political and economic lifestyles.Interestingly – and worth reflecting on – is the fact that much of the transformation is the result of China’s rise and its gradual but sustained emergence as an important regional and global actor.The West, especially the United States, is finding it difficult to adjust and accommodate the deep-seated paradigm shift in power taking place around it. That’s not difficult to understand given that the US as the current dominant global power has the most to lose from the shift of power to the East.But Europe also needs to come to terms with a changed world. Here in Brussels as the European Union prepares to hammer out a new European Security Strategy to replace the one written 12 years ago it needs to pay special attention to the myriad ways in which the world is becoming different, almost daily. And it needs to forge a new outlook on China and Asia.The world viewed from Europe is indeed violent, messy and dangerous. The EU faces a host of domestic problems – Greece, unemployment, and of course the deteriorating refugee crisis. Europe is surrounded as some say by a “ring of fire”: in the east by Russia and in the south, by a turbulent Arab world.But the EU should be wary of projecting its own morosity on other regions – and indeed of basing its assumptions of Asia’s future on Europe’s tragic, war-racked past.While Europe and its neighbours are in turmoil, the rest of the world is doing better than expected – and certainly better than 60 years ago.The economies of most of the African and Asian countries gathered in Bandung are booming. Steps are being taken to combat poverty, there were successful elections in Afghanistan and Indonesia – and changes are underway in Myanmar and Vietnam next year.Emerging countries are setting their own agenda, defining their interests, building partnerships and rallying together to forge a joint vision for the future.This time the talk is also of breaking the chains of colonialism – but of a different kind; today’s African and Asian governments want an end to the economic domination of the West and of Western insitutions.As the Bandung meeting pointed out last week, the focus is on establishing a new global order that is open to emerging economic powers and leaves the "obsolete ideas" of Bretton Woods institutions in the past.President Xi Jinping of China told the conference that “a new type of international relations” was needed to encourage cooperation between Asian and African nations.Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the conference host, said those who still insisted that global economic problems could only be solved through the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank were clinging to a long-gone past.“There needs to be change,” he said. "It's imperative that we build a new international economic order that is open to new emerging economic powers.”In 1955, the 29 countries which met in Bandung accounted for less than a quarter of global economic output at that time; today they contribute to more than half of the world economy.Many of those countries, such as China, India and Indonesia, are now themselves at top tables like the Group of 20 and wield significant economic power.Indonesia’s Jokowi said the group was meeting again in a changed world but still needed to stand together against the domination of an unspecified “certain group of countries” to avoid unfairness and global imbalances.The creation of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is one way in which emerging nations are challenging the Western-dominated economic stage. While the US has decided to stay out of the AIIB, many European countries have offered to be founding members of the new bank.Asia’s future will depend to a large extent on the economic future of China. And on relations between China and Japan.Tensions between Asia’s two biggest economies have flared in recent years due to feuds over wartime history as well as territorial rows and regional rivalry.Memories of Japan’s past military aggression run deep in China, and Beijing has repeatedly urged Japan to face up to history.In an encouraging move, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Xi did meet in Bandung, prompting hopes of a cautious rapprochement between the two economic giants.Peace and prosperity in Asia hinge on cordial relations, even partnerships between the region’s leading powers. And who knows if China and Japan can sidestep their historical enmities, perhaps India and Pakistan could – one day – do the same?
View from abroad : Myanmar, exiled kings and me (Originally published 18/04/2015 at dawn.com)
Our young and vivacious Myanmar guide is mystified by my question. Who exactly is this “Indian king” whose grave I want to visit in Yangon? When did he die here — why was he here in the first place? And why has no other visitor she has received ever asked to go to the tomb?She quickly goes into detective mode and thanks to the internet we discover the burial spot of Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last Mughal emperor, sent into exile in Burma by the British rulers of India. He died here in 1862, a frail and heartbroken man.The last emperor’s poignant story of pride and betrayal is magnificently told by William Dalrymple. But even before I read the book, Bahadur Shah Zafar’s tragic life and times had left an enduring mark.I am determined to visit his grave. And clearly my enthusiasm and determination are contagious. Not only are my friend and the guide anxious to go to the tomb, our chauffeur is equally curious.But locating the last Mughal’s final resting place on the internet is one thing; actually finding it in crowded, bustling Yangon is another. The address says it is in the vicinity of the magnificent Shwedagon Pagoda, a sprawling, glittering complex of golden stupas, meditating Buddhas and chanting monks which has long fascinated tourists, believers and non-believers.The evening before we had walked amid the shiny mirror mosaics and burning candles, along with hundreds of other enchanted visitors and pilgrims. There is much to see and fascinate. Everything looks bright and new. We are told that donations for the pagoda pour in daily, so more and more gold leaf is plastered on to the stupas.The people of Myanmar are rightfully proud of their Buddhist heritage —and look after it devotedly.The last Mughal emperor’s surroundings are quieter and more modest. We drive around for a bit before we find the street and then spend several minutes peering behind high walls before we come upon the unassuming yellow mausoleum.We are both saddened and reassured by what we see: the shrine is certainly small and unimpressive. But it is clean and well-looked after, with dense trees providing much-needed shade in the hot Yangon sun.We are welcomed with open arms by the friendly caretaker who is clearly thrilled to have such curious visitors to talk to. He takes us to the graves of the emperor, (actually Bahadur Shah Zafar is buried just below his “official” grave on the top floor, he tells us) his wife and granddaughter and reads out the Urdu poems inscribed on the walls, along with their English translation.There are paintings and some very moving pictures of the frail and dying king and his family. The pain on his gaunt face pierces our hearts. The caretaker tells us that his visitors are usually from South Asia — as are the donations which pay for the maintenance of the mausoleum. There are prayers on Fridays, he says proudly. “Bahadur Shah Zafar may have died a lonely and broken man — but his memory is alive,” he says proudly.For a few moments, time seems to stand still as we hear the story of the last Mughal and his life in exile. His grave was left unmarked and forgotten until 1903, the caretaker tells us, when after some protests from the Muslim community in Myanmar, the British rulers of Burma constructed a stone slab to mark the site. The spot was “lost again” only to be found in 1991. A mausoleum was constructed and inaugurated in 1994.And then just as suddenly, we are back in vibrant, modern-day Yangon. Like much of South-East Asia, Myanmar is on a roll. Encouraged by moves towards political reform and opening by the military junta which ruled the country for decades, business and investments are pouring in.China, Japan, India and neighbouring South-East Asian Nations are vying for contracts and deals while more cautious Europeans and Americans lag behind. Tourists from the four corners of the world are anxious to visit the country before it loses its authenticity.During our week in the country, the talk is about upcoming elections in November and whether or not there will be a change in the constitution so that Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of the nation’s slain founding father, can stand for president.Myanmar’s constitution forbids anybody with a foreign spouse or children from becoming president. Since Suu Kyi’s late husband was British, as are their two sons, there is little doubt that the provision was drafted exclusively to prevent her from becoming president.Like many countries, Myanmar is full of contradictions: newspapers talk of peace treaties between the government and some of the country’s 135 ethnic groups. Little notice is paid, however, to the plight of the more than one million Rohingya Muslims (who are not recognised as citizens but referred to as “Bengalis”) who have been herded into squalid camps by the Buddhist majority in western Rakhine state.Much to the dismay of many observers, Suu Kyi has yet to condemn the violence. But Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia are pushing for more humane treatment for the Rohingyas as are the European Union, the US and international human rights groups.Dodgy politics coexist with a booming economy, huge SUVs hog the congested roads of Yangon while motorcycles and bicycles are banned from the streets and donations to monasteries and pagodas keep pouring in while schools and hospitals struggle to survive.As we travel across the country, soaking in the beauty of Bagan and the past glories of Mandalay, I have no doubt that the people of Myanmar are determined to join their South-East Asian counterparts in their march towards progress and democracy. And neither the current government — or for that matter Aung San Suu Kyi — can stand in their way.
View from Abroad: New development paradigm (Originally published 08/03/2015 at dawn.com)
It used to be so simple: the world was divided into rich and poor countries. The rich provided aid and trade concessions to the poor ones. It was called Official Development Assistance (ODA) and often seen as a panacea for all problems facing “third world” countries. Rich nations promised to spend 0.7 per cent of their GDP as ODA. Developing nations were grateful for the help. It was neat and tidy. Orderly even.Only of course it wasn’t. It was messy, patronising and based on the notion of charity. Nothing wrong with charity — only that it begins at home. And as the going got tougher at home, growth rates dipped and jobs became scarcer, richer countries were less and less anxious to help the poorer ones.And then the world turned on its head as poor countries — or at least some of them — stopped being really poor. China, India, South Africa, Brazil began to rise, becoming more self confident and assertive by the day. They asked for stronger representation in international financial institutions, set up their own bank, started investing in and assisting their less well-off friends.In 2000 amid all the change and shift in power from North to South, the talk turned to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and eradicating poverty. However, it was still about the rich helping the poor, putting conditions on their aid, making sure that there was no wastage, no human rights abuses.Fast forward to 2015 and the world is a dramatically different place. The talk is of a post-2015 agenda which is about sustainable development in both the North and the South. There is a focus on governance, gender balance, and moving “beyond ODA”.There is agreement that the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will not be met by ODA alone. Their achievement will require the mobilisation of the private sector, a better use of remittances and philanthropy and more creative thinking about “blending” private and public funds.And above all there will be a focus on the mobilisation of additional resources by developing countries through domestic resource mobilisation, including through more thorough and efficient national tax collection.Yes, finally after years of beating around the bush, global attention is turning to tackling tax evasion, by companies and individuals. The question will be high up on the agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development which will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from July 13 to 16, 2015.The reason for the focus on domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries is clearly linked to the fact that ODA is on its way down and traditional donors are getting tougher.There is good talk about the potential benefits of taxation for state-building and the long-term independence from foreign assistance. It is also of course a question of governance.Revenue from taxation and customs provides governments with the funds needed to invest in development, relieve poverty and deliver public services directed towards the physical and social infrastructure required to enhance long-term growth.Strengthening domestic resource mobilisation is not just a question of raising revenues: it is also about designing a revenue system that promotes inclusiveness, encourages good governance, improves accountability of governments to their citizens, and cultivates social justice.Non-governmental agencies such as Christian Aid have estimated that developing countries, including lower- and middle-income countries, could be losing out on as much as $160bn a year in potential tax revenue because companies are dodging taxes. This was one and a half times the combined overseas aid budget of the whole rich world at the time, and there’s no reason to think the problem has got smaller since then.In 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa established a high-level panel to write a report on illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa and to come up with ways to combat them.The panel, presided by the former South African head of state Thabo Mbeki, warned that the cost of IFFs to the continent was around $50 billion each year.The report states: “Some have estimated that Africa’s capital stock would have expanded by more than 60 per cent if funds leaving Africa illicitly had remained on the continent, while GDP per capita would be up to 15 per cent more.”Worse still, this sum is even greater than the total official development assistance received by African countries, which was $46.1 billion in 2012.At a recent conference in Brussels, participants underlined that there was no dearth of money in the world and that in fact Africa was a rich continent. The money was just not in Africa, but hidden and hoarded in tax havens, most of them in rich countries.
View From Abroad: Getting excited about Asean (Originally published 28/02/2015 at dawn.com)
As China’s economy slows and Indian growth remains uncertain, global attention has switched to the end-year creation of a tariff-free 10-nation Southeast Asian “single market” as the newest and most exciting facet of rising Asia.The excitement is justified. Taken together, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have a population of 620 million, a growth rate of five per cent and a combined gross domestic product of almost $2.5 trillion. A growing middle class across the region has emerged as an avid consumer of foreign and domestic goods and services. Not surprisingly, global business is enthusiastic. Trade is booming and foreign investments into the region are rising.Significantly, even as they strive to get elements of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) in place by year-end, countries in the region are already crafting an even more ambitious “post-2015 vision” for further integration. The ambition is to move beyond trade and economics to focus on still largely incomplete plans for building a political and security community and preparing the groundwork for stronger social and cultural integration. One visionary goal is to create a common Asean time zone — as opposed to the current three spanning the Asean region — to facilitate cross-border business and finance.The AEC roadmap includes four pillars: a single market and production base (including the free flow of goods, services, skilled labour, capital and investment), a competitive economic region, equitable economic development and integration into the global economy.But challenges remain. First, don’t expect the AEC to enter into force with a “big bang” on Jan 1, 2016. Not all elements of the single market will or can be in place on schedule and while progress is being made to reduce trade barriers and ease investment, as well as ensure the free flow of goods, services, investment and skilled labour, the devil is in the detail — and in enforcement and implementation. An Asean Scorecard which keeps countries up to date on progress on the AEC says about 80pc of the work on completing the AEC has been done. But Asean experts acknowledge that the remaining 20pc covers “the most difficult” tasks.Malaysian Trade Minister Mustapa Mohamed, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the Southeast Asian bloc this year, has said the full impact of integration may not be felt until perhaps 2020, recognising that there are border issues, customs, immigration and different regulations, which still need to be tackled. Businesses must still navigate a complex landscape of different product standards and regulations that make it hard to sell across the region and hamper the ability of new companies to enter the market.Surprisingly, many Asean businesses appear to know little of the AEC’s pros and cons. Vietnamese officials said recently that 60pc of their country’s business community “had no idea what the AEC is”. A survey by the Singapore Business Federation in January found two out of five firms were completely unaware of it. Yet establishing the AEC will impact positively on many industries, including electronics, car parts and components, as well as chemicals, textiles, and clothing. Once completed, the hope is that the AEC will boost intra-Asean trade which currently stands at a modest 24pc of the region’s overall trade flows.Second, Asean still has much to do to connect with citizens. Increasingly vocal civil society representatives are adamant that Asean must live up to its goal of becoming “people-centred” and less elitist. In contrast to earlier years and outdated conventional wisdom, Asean civil society is proactive and striving to become deeply involved in efforts to ensure stronger human rights protection and promotion across the region. In a recent statement, the Asean People’s Forum (APF) — Asean’s largest civil society group — listed a number of problems in the region, among them grave human rights violations, corruption and poor governance. Intimidation of human rights defenders was also raised.There are signs that governments are paying heed. As current Asean chair Malaysia has indicated that one of its main priorities will be to engage Asean citizens and to promote greater understanding of Asean initiatives and projects. “We also hope to steer Asean closer to the people of Southeast Asia: to make this institution part of people’s daily lives, by creating a truly people-centred Asean,” says Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. The rhetoric has to be turned into action, however.Third, for all the hype, Asean still has to deal with obstacles created by economic nationalism, protectionism and resistance to foreign-owned industries which persists in many member countries. Malaysia’s trade minister Mohamed has said he will not avoid the politically sensitive task of tackling protectionism in Asean such as local content requirements, mandatory product standards and import restrictions.More generally, maritime disputes in the South China Sea as well as incidents of religious sectarianism, rising intolerance, human trafficking and corruption are further challenges to surmount as are differences in levels of development and political and economic models among Asean states. Additionally, there is concern that Indonesia under President Jokowi may be too focused on the country’s domestic questions to play its traditional leadership role in Asean. Meanwhile Indonesian business continues to be wary of opening up the country’s markets to Asean competitors.Looking aheadThe Nay Pi Taw declaration on Asean’s post-2015 vision adopted last November sets out an impressive agenda for the region’s future. While deepening economic integration and connectivity remains on the agenda, Asean leaders have identified external relations and the building of political/security and socio-cultural communities as a priority.There is no shortage of interesting ideas: leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia in recent weeks have been pushing for a common time zone arguing that this would help businesses and allow for coordinated opening times for banks and stock markets. An Asean Open Skies Agreement is designed to create a single aviation market and allow for more flights, which will increase trade, investment and tourism. There are suggestions to set up an Asean regional infrastructure fund. Plans for strengthening the Asean Secretariat and improving coordination among member governments are being studied by a high-level task force. East Timor’s Asean membership is under internal discussion.Asean is a business opportunity for the West but also for other Asian countries — a fact that India, China and Japan are more than aware of.
This time it can be different: SDGs need more funds, changes in mindset (Originally published 26/01/2015 at friendsofeurope.org)
Prepare for a pivotal year for development cooperation. For most of 2015, the focus will be on seeking to define a transformative agenda for poverty eradication and shaping social, economic and environmental development over the next 15 years.Priority attention will be on knitting together a “post-2015” blueprint for poverty eradication and sustainable development which follows on from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of 2000 and the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20). Agreement on the “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs) is expected at the UN General Assembly in September this year.Consensus on a new set of goals – however long – is important in order to focus minds and ensure more coherence in global development. Even more crucially, however, implementation of the SDGs will demand a broader, more inclusive mindset, more international consultation and certainly more active civil society engagement. Additional resources, renewed attention on updating existing financial tools and instruments and creating new ones will also be needed.As such, the conference on Financing for Development Conference to be held in Addis Ababa in July must be well-prepared, with participants ready to look at traditional and innovative ways to fund growth and development.Also in 2015, a climate change agreement is hoped for at the December COP21 ministerial meeting in Paris. Last but not least, the EU has designated 2015 as its first-ever European Year of Development.Significantly, the 2015 summits are linked. An agreement at the Addis Ababa financing conference will provide momentum for the dialogue on the SDGs which will, in turn, create an impetus ahead of the critical climate talks.A radically changed environmentThe rhetoric in 2000 was impressive. But fifteen years after the adoption of the MDGs, the jury is still out on nations’ record in meeting the eight targets. The headline goal for extreme poverty reduction appears to have been met five years ahead of its target. Significant successes in school enrolment and mortality rates for under-fives have been achieved (albeit at slightly less than target rates). However, progress in meeting other important indicators remains patchy.This time, it’s different. The MDGs were brief, focused, easily understood and communicated – and represented a rare international consensus for development. The SDGs reflect the concerns and priorities of a radically changed world. As EU Development Commissioner Neven Mimica pointed out, “the world is a very different place in 2015 to what it was in 2000. We can no longer focus only on eradicating poverty; today’s challenges are much more inter-related and we have to make sure that we achieve sustainable development in all of its three dimensions: environmental, social and economic.”The SDG consultative process has been long and painstaking. The 17 SDGs and 169 targets agreed by the United Nations Open Working Group and endorsed by the General Assembly last year, represent a global wish list and cover the broad themes of the MDGs – ending poverty and hunger, and improving health, education and gender equality – but also include specific goals to reduce inequality, make cities safe, address climate change and promote peaceful societies. As such, they bring together two frontiers – development and climate – and tackle global public goods problems as well as national obstacles. There’s something for everyone – almost.For purists, the list is too long, the goals too disparate. “What the world needs is a plan of action to replace the Millennium Development Goals. What’s on offer is a shopping list,” according to Kevin Watkins, Director at the Overseas Development Institute. “The 17 SDGs and 169 targets cover everything from the urgent and measurable – eliminating poverty, cutting child deaths, universal provision of education, water and sanitation, and climate stability – to the vaguely aspirational.”Certainly, the goals are going to be much more complex to describe, implement and monitor.On the plus side, however, the SDGs could encourage a more holistic approach to development and offer a chance for more partnerships and collaboration. Crucially, the SDGs will be universal, which means all countries – rich and poor – will be required to consider them when crafting their national policies. This is different from the MDGs, which were applicable to all and marketed as anti-poverty goals for poor countries.Significantly, the adoption of the SDGs goes beyond the pure development agenda. They signal a determination by nations to jointly tackle complex global challenges. The importance of sustainable development will be accepted and highlighted as fundamental. Not least, they will reinforce an unprecedented process of international consultation and commitment at a time when many are sceptical about multilateral cooperation.Global partnership for development.MDG 8 urged development actors to forge a global partnership for development. Turning that ambition into reality means focusing on finding the resources to implement the post-2015 agenda. “Funding is crucial for credibility on climate and post-2015 efforts,” according to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon who believes that all public, private, domestic and international funding sources need to be tapped.Public financing and Official Development Aid (ODA) will be central to supporting the implementation of the SDGs. But money generated from the private sector, through tax reforms, and through a crackdown on illicit financial flows and corruption will be vital.Certainly, there will be less ODA to spur implementation. Aid flows look set to stagnate at best, and continue declining in importance to emerging economies. Public-private partnerships will be crucial. New development actors are emerging as an important source of funds for developing countries, especially for the financing of infrastructure. Foreign direct investments (FDI) in emerging countries are on the rise as are impact investments, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities and philanthropy.Remittances from workers abroad are a huge boon to their countries of origin. Governments are also under pressure to increase domestic resource mobilisation through more effective tax collection and anti-corruption measures.According to Amina J Mohammed, special advisor to the UN Secretary General on post-2015 development planning, “the private sector also has responsibilities and all must work in partnership, within and across sectors,” adding: “Indeed, partnership is critical but means so much more than just collaboration. Partnership is about the integration of visions, values, plans, accountability, resources and knowledge sharing.The world in 2015 will continue to be a difficult and hazardous place. The SDGs are one way of ensuring that the goal of a fairer, more equal and more stable world is kept alive.
Forget the headlines: Life is getting better (Originally published 24/01/2015 at dawn.com)
Cast a glance at the headlines and it’s clear: the world is a violent, cruel and unforgiving place. Inequality is rampant. Terrorists stalk our streets. Poor, homeless people crowd our shelters. It’s bleak and grim — and not getting better.
View from Abroad: Pakistan’s choice (Originally published 6/12/2014 at dawn.com)
As I prepare to travel to Pakistan — the first such visit in five years — I am filled with admiration, amazement and apprehension. They say the past is a different country. And Pakistan is certainly a very different country from the one I left all those years ago.Pakistan and I have both changed. I am obviously older (but not wiser) than the young, naive and rather demure girl who boarded the plane from Islamabad to Brussels with her parents and sister. At the time, I believed I would be away for a few months, may be a couple of years. Several decades later, Europe has become a core part of my identity and existence and Brussels is “home”, a city that has nourished and nurtured me through good times and bad.Pakistan’s transformation is more starkly radical. Sometimes I can hardly recognise my country of birth. There is much still to admire and love — and to yearn for on cold European winter evenings. Family and friends of course. The food and some of the music. The stories being told by old writers and new ones whose books I devour avidly. The artists whose pieces stir long-buried memories.But what I admire most is the resilience of the people. The indomitable spirit of the so-called common man, the “ordinary” people — or the “masses” that the Pakistani politicians refer to in derision — who keep the country humming and running against all odds.You see that unbeatable spirit everywhere, among the people displaced by floods and the deadly fighting between the army and the Taliban, after the tragic deaths of innocent civilians caused by drones, among the thousand Malalas still determined to go to school and the sick people waiting patiently for a doctor to see them in crowded hospitals.But that resilience is also about being optimistic about the future. Going to work every day in packed buses, facing harassment, electricity breakdowns, rampant inflation and corruption with stubbornness and stoicism. And to keep going on and on. I admire Pakistani business leaders and innovators who still invest and believe in the country. The young and the daring entrepreneurs. People who speak up for tolerance, resist the siren song of conformity and compromise.I have seen the same energy and resilience in many other parts of Asia and in Africa. But recently rarely in Europe. The Eurozone crisis has exhausted Europe and joblessness rates are much too high, especially for young people.But speak to young people in China, India and Indonesia and it is clear that they believe in a better future. Visit the countries and it is clear that people’s lives are getting better. Of course there is still inequality, poverty and hunger. But the governments in these countries are trying hard to tackle the multiple challenges they face. Are Pakistani politicians doing the same?So what about my amazement? Well, I suppose it’s about the patience of the people, the willingness to put up with mediocre and often corrupt politicians, war-mongering soldiers, inequality and unfairness and the rampant lack of the rule of law. Elections have not led to real democracy. All that aid money pouring in, has not led to sustainable growth and development.Reading the online version of the front page of Dawn fills me with wonder at how quickly Pakistan’s political landscape has turned into a dark, cruel, repetitive circus. The scowling, angry features of former cricketer Imran Khan, the crazy pronouncements of the Canadian preacher, the ever-chubbier and dishevelled, helpless look of the prime minister and the semi-lucid mutterings of the scion of the Bhutto family.And then there is the apprehension. Despite the disappointment and the disillusionment with a country which I once called home, I suppose there is still some lingering connection, a hope that Pakistan will survive the challenges of the 21st century, stand proud and tall and become an integral part of a rising Asia.It would be nice if Pakistan was in the headlines not because of the antics of the likes of Junaid Jamshed, anti-India rants by the foreign ministry, suicide bombings and hate-Malala crazies as well as the treatment being meted out to Asia Bibi but because the country was breaking new ground, turning a fresh page, opting for sanity rather than madness.After so many years and so many wonderful experiences in Europe and Asia — not to mention the lessons in honesty, sincerity and fearlessness that I learned from my father — I wonder if I will be able to stay silent when I encounter intolerance and religiosity and the blatant disregard for the rights of women, children and minorities that seems to have become part of the national discourse.Across Asia, there is hope and progress. Viewed from Brussels, it certainly looks like this is the Asian Century, a time when Asia is coming of age, growing and developing.Pakistan has a choice: it could join the Asian mainstream and give its people the life and future they deserve or it can opt to be part of a self-destructive Middle East mindset and stay on the periphery of a dynamic and vibrant Asia. I know what I would choose — but do they?
View from Abroad: Europe waits for trade talks but Modi ‘looks East’ (Originally published 22/11/2014 at dawn.com)
These are busy times for Asian leaders — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the busiest.Last week as he criss-crossed Asia, clinching business deals, attracting much-needed investments and building strategic alliances, Modi found time for a quick meeting with the European Union’s outgoing European Council President Herman Van Rompuy to underline that the “EU should take advantage of the new economic environment in India”.The two men apparently agreed that the United Nations should hold an annual international “Yoga Day”.But not much was apparently said on the EU-India free trade agreement that the two sides have been trying to negotiate for the last seven years and which now seems to have run into the ground.EU officials are still hoping that the negotiations will be back on track soon. But the Indian leader is too busy looking elsewhere.As of this autumn, Modi has his nation and the rest of Asia abuzz with his determination to inject new life into India’s “Look East” policy which, following his incessant Asian travels, including recent talks with Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) and other Asian leaders in Myanmar, has morphed into what Modi proudly describes as a “Look East — and Act East” policy.India’s decision to step up its game in Asia is no surprise. As an emerging power with “great power” ambitions, India has no option but to seek a stronger role in a volatile neighbourhood and a region marked by often-changing geopolitical rivalries and alliances. Also, tapping into the region’s dynamic economies is critical for India’s own growth and reform agenda.Certainly, China has the funds needed to help finance India’s infrastructure requirements while Japan and South Korea have the technical experience and expertise. South-east Asian markets are important for Indian investors and exporters. Sustainable peace with Pakistan may still be a long way off but is essential for India’s development and peace and stability in the region.While in Myanmar, Modi made the headlines by pushing his “Make in India” campaign, which aims to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub, by cutting red tape, upgrading infrastructure and making it easier for companies to do business. Modi promised to implement long-delayed plans to boost trade and deepen ties with Asean so that current trade flows could rise from $75 billion today to $100 billion by 2015.In fact, the policy is not new. India has long spoken of developing a “Look East” policy, but has lagged behind China in forging ties with emerging economies in South-East Asia. Tackling China’s influence on Asean and South Asia is still a challenge but India benefits from the fact that Japan, Asean and others in the region are certainly looking to reduce their economic dependence on Beijing by reaching out to Delhi.Indian commentators also underline that Modi used the Asean meeting to articulate for the first time India’s intent to enhance “balance” in the Asia Pacific region, arguing that the word was carefully chosen to reflect India’s shared concerns with other Asian countries about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.Interestingly, Indian defence cooperation is being stepped up with several Indian Ocean states including Sri Lanka and Maldives. India will supply four naval patrol vessels to Hanoi as part of $100 million Line of Credit signed last month. The two countries have also decided to ramp up cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon, civil nuclear energy and space.Given Modi’s focus on the Asia-Pacific, the EU’s new leaders may have to wait a long time before he signals a real interest in upgrading bilateral ties.It is no secret that the EU-India strategic partnership needs a shot in the arm and that trade and investment flows are much too modest. But negotiations for an India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) — the most important issue on the bilateral agenda — have lasted for seven years, with no end in sight. And hopes that New Delhi would put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the elusive deal have not materialised, with differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights continuing to impede progress.The pact could be signed in 2015 — but only if both sides can summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.Modi and the EU’s new leaders face the uphill task of taking the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level, a move that would benefit both sides.In addition to the geopolitical value of such a decision, European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.To inject momentum into the relationship, both sides will need to make an effort. EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will therefore be crucial in signalling a fresh start in relations.
View from Abroad: Keep watching Jokowi (Originally published 1/11/2014 at dawn.com)
You heard it here first. Two years ago, I predicted in this column (Hope amidst the madness Sept 29, 2012) that Joko Widodo, the then newly-elected governor of Jakarta, was poised to become the next president of Indonesia.On Oct 20, that prediction came true as Widodo — better known as Jokowi — became the leader of the world’s most populous Muslim majority country, fourth largest democracy and an impressive Asian economic power house.In 2012, I remember coming back from a long study tour in Indonesia where practically everyone I met had waxed lyrical about the governor of Jakarta. I was intrigued — and then I was convinced. Jokowi is special.Jokowi and Indonesia matter. They matter to Indonesia’s 250 million citizens, to the wider south-east Asian region — and also to an increasingly chaotic and depressingly violent Muslim world.Much has been written about Indonesia’s new head of state: by all accounts, he is low-key, soft-spoken, dedicated, hard-working and, in a country once ruled by the army and an unsavoury elite, he is “a man truly of the people”.He is therefore an unusual and outstanding political phenomenon. His origins are modest. He was drawn to politics late in life. In a country where family and background counts, he breaks the rules by having no army or political family connections.Comparisons have been made to US President Barack Obama. Both men emerged “out of nowhere” to lead their nations, caught the popular imagination by breaking with the past, reached out to young people and brought a message of change and hope to a tired nation.Look carefully, and the two men even share a striking physical resemblance.As Jokowi takes power, there are concerns that he may also run afoul of an old guard which is reluctant to cede power and privilege to a less skilful and less experienced political newcomer.But there is a difference. Obama heads an economy which is just beginning to sputter to life after years of stagnation. America is desperate to look inwards even as it is pulled screaming and kicking into new military adventures. Public support for Obama is eroding fast.Jokowi, in contrast, has become the leader of one of Asia’s most exciting countries and dynamic economies. Indonesia still faces an array of political, economic and societal challenges — and none of these will disappear under the new president’s watch.Significantly, what happens in Indonesia will not just stay in Indonesia — it will have strong repercussions across the country itself, the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) and a curious Muslim world.Jokowi’s election is hopefully a fatal blow to the old-style politicians like Prabowo Subianto — a former general once married to the daughter of Indonesian dictator Suharto — who was also a candidate for president and refused at first to acknowledge defeat.In a region not noted for its espousal of democratic values and human rights, Indonesia stands out for having successfully ensured the transfer of power from one elected president to another.For many years, Indonesia has engaged in a massive soft power exercise of trying to export democracy to neighbouring nations, including Myanmar. Jakarta has taken the lead in trying to inject some real “people power” into Asean.Finally, Jokowi offers welcome relief in a Muslim world dominated by dictators, monarchs and unsavoury politicians.Still, it won’t be easy. Jokowi may have claimed the presidency, but he does not have a majority in parliament which last month controversially blocked the direct election of governors, mayors and district chiefs, a move which could prevent the rise of figures outside the political establishment, like Jokowi. The law is expected to be repealed — but it signals the tough political battle ahead for the new president.It’s been a good few years for the Indonesian economy — but growth is slowing down as the commodity boom wanes and exports decline. The government is under pressure to cut its generous fuel subsidies, a move which could spark civil unrest.Indonesia has not suffered a major terrorist strike since 2009 when a pair of luxury Jakarta hotels were targeted by suicide bombers but its brand of moderate and tolerant Islam is under threat from extremist forces. The country is trying hard to fight the spread of Wahabi Islam. Fighting corruption remains a challenge across the country.Most significantly, the new president faces the challenge of distancing himself from Megawati Sukarnoputri, a one-time president of the Indonesia and the daughter of the country’s first post-independence president, Sukarno.As chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which put up Jokowi as presidential candidate, Megawati still wields enormous influence and has used it to determine the members of the new president’s cabinet.Indonesian newspapers warn that the new government is the result of compromises between Jokowi and Megawati and that contrary to expectations that the new president would appoint a team of technocrats, at least 21 ministers in the 34-member cabinet are either representatives of political parties or have links to political figures.Most damagingly, is the inclusion of Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter as a coordinating minister for human resources development and culture.“We can only imagine that the shoe is too big for her,” warned the Jakarta Post.“We are disappointed because we had high expectations,” the newspaper warned. However, there is praise for the appointment of eight female ministers, including the country’s first-ever woman foreign minister, Retno Marsudi.As I said in an earlier column, the world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21st century power. And they are watching Jokowi.
View from Abroad: A 21st century Silk Road (Originally published 25/10/2014 at dawn.com)
I have been in China for five days and my brain is on fire. Perceptions, discussions, confrontations crowd my mind, jostling for space, demanding attention. My Chinese colleagues have so much to tell me about their country’s new priorities and they want to know so much about the future of Europe. We discuss. We argue.
The debates go on and on at the round-table meeting in Changsha in Hunan province that we are attending. As day turns into night, the debates not only dominate my waking hours, they enter my dreams.Europe and China have much to talk about. We are so different and yet we have much in common. There is the shared challenge of encouraging sustainable growth, tackling problems in our respective neighbourhoods, dealing with an ageing population, making sure we eliminate inequalities.But much also separates us. Europe believes in democracy, elections and human rights. China wants western countries to stop pontificating and giving Beijing lessons on democracy. The focus should be on governance, not on elections and other the rituals of democracy, one Chinese academic tells us.“We have to treat each other equally ... the West should stop looking down on us,” another Chinese colleague insists at the round-table discussion between European and Chinese think tanks.Indeed, much has changed — and is changing — in Beijing. President Xi Jinping has embarked on an unprecedented national reform drive, demanding an end to corruption, stronger implementation of the rule of law, a rebalancing of the economy from investments and exports to domestic consumption.And for the last year, President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang have been promoting the ambitious idea of a Silk Road which would connect China to Europe, weaving its way across Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe on the one hand while also building connections through a maritime route which would include the Maldives and Sri Lanka and many South-East Asian states.Full disclosure: I confess that I am completely fascinated, intrigued by the initiative. As a young girl growing up in Pakistan, I spent hours reading of the adventures of the intrepid men and women who plyed the Silk Road, connecting towns, industries and people.Exotic looking Chinese traders, with their bundles of silk, satins and brocades, made their way to Islamabad, persuading my mother and aunts to buy their goods. I watched from the sidelines, amused by the good-natured bargaining, the chuckles resulting in mutually satisfactory transactions.Years later, I went up the Silk Road — or rather the silk track — to Hunza and Gilgit and felt my heart almost break at the exquisite beauty of the landscape. Many hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani workers died while building the road in such a hostile land. Their sacrifice was enormous, their memories preserved in plaques along the route.That was then. The Road was about romance and adventure. Today it’s about commerce. China’s new concept of the Silk Road has little to do with romance — and a lot to do with business.Still it is a visionary idea which is getting much attention in Asia and Europe. And so it should. As they did when they came out with their ‘China Dream’ concept a year or so ago, the ‘Silk Road’ initiative is a work in progress.Beijing has yet to articulate its ambitions in detail. “We are not yet talking about a strategy,” says a Chinese colleague.Clearly, China wants to use the Road to increase its trade relations with countries along the route. Beijing is interested in Central Asia’s energy resources. It wants to counterbalance Russia’s political influence in the region.Also, the Silk Road provides a strong counter move to America’s much-touted ‘pivot’ to Asia and to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement that the US wants to negotiate with countries in the region but without China.As I listen to the discussion, I am convinced that this is an idea whose time has come — again. China has the political clout to make it happen. And it has the money to finance many of the projects.Still, it won’t be easy. The 21st century Silk Road will not only allow goods to be trade freely across borders, it could also facilitate the cross-frontier movement of drugs, arms and terrorists.As such, the proposal needs to be developed with care and caution.As I prepare to leave Changsha, my head is still spinning with new information and ideas. I dream of ancient bazaars and long, winding roads through mountains and plains. The Silk Road as envisioned by Beijing may be based on national self interest and, given the challenges, may never see the light of day.But the vision of an interconnected world it articulates is worth preserving — and developing.
View from Abroad: Western nightmares are just bad dreams (Originally published 19/10/2014 at dawn.com)
It's the stuff of Western nightmares: imagine if, one day, a strong China and a weak but assertive Russia “gang up” against the United States and Europe, winning more friends and allies and imposing their writ on the rest of the world?The recent high profile meetings between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been watched carefully — and fretfully — in all Western capitals with uneasy policymakers seeking to understand if this is just a passing show of affection or if the two countries are planning to build a more solid partnership.Beijing has made clear that it has no intention of being part of any geopolitical power play being hatched by Moscow. China’s interests are global. Indeed before he met Putin, Li was in Germany striking two billion euro worth of business deals. He then headed to Italy for more headline-grabbing commercial overtures.Beijing’s standard line is that it has no allies, only friends. That’s not how Russia views the world. Russia in contrast is under Western sanctions. The EU is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas while the Nato military alliance talks menacingly about Russian actions in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.Some warn it is the beginning of a second Cold War. Clearly, it isn’t. The multipolar world today is a very different place from what it was in the Cold War years.Still, some thing is afoot. The Russians are working overtime to woo the Chinese. Beijing is clearly interested in accessing more Russian oil and gas, providing Moscow with new markets as Europe diversifies away from Russian energy. Some 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding are reported to be signed during Li’s visit to Moscow, including in areas related to high-speed transit and finance. China is also eager to supply Russia with fruit and vegetables, products that Moscow is no longer importing from Europe.Western attention is focused on Russian-Chinese cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which some in the West view as a potential competitor for Nato. And the recent decision to launch the BRICS bank is seen as a joint challenge by Russia and China to the post-war liberal order and the supremacy of the Bretton Woods institutions.Both China and Russia are often on the same side on tackling global flashpoints, eschewing military intervention unless sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.There’s no doubt, however, that while it may want to stay friends and do business with Moscow, China has no interest in being seen as Russia’s best friend. As friendships go, in fact, the focus in many envious Western capitals is on the ‘special relationship’ between China and Germany.While in Berlin, Li and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed deals worth approximately US$18.1 billion, covering cooperation in areas including agriculture, automotive, telecom, healthcare and education.Li requested that Germany help to relax the EU’s high-tech export restrictions to China and continue expanding bilateral trade and investment. He further stated that the two countries should continue working together on feasibility studies concerning the proposed China-EU Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed guidelines covering 110 cooperative agreements over the next five to 10 years.At the Hamburg Summit organised by Germany’s top industrialists that was attended by Premier Li the message was clear: China is not only the the biggest market for German companies, it is also a growing one. China’s huge national reform programme agenda, opens up exciting new export and investment opportunities for German — and other European — companies. Discussions focused on China’s massive urbanisation needs which can be met by European companies.Chinese investments into Germany and the EU are soaring. Significantly, unlike many other countries, China has shown a strong interest in the future course of Asem, the Asia Europe Meeting forum which is often criticised for being a mere talk shop.At the Asem summit in Milan last week, Li waxed lyrical about Asem’s role in improving connectivity between Asia and Europe, underlining his vision of building a Silk Road between Asia.Li knows he is on a winning streak. As the Financial Times newspaper reported recently, Chinese investors are surging into the EU.In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over 6.1bn euro — less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly 27bn euro, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.Not surprisingly, the EU and China are in the process of negotiating a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting each others’ investments but also ensuring better marker access.China is clearly not about to ditch Russia. But Beijing’s focus is on the growing markets of Europe. Western policymakers can sleep easy. For many nights.