View from abroad : Working on a new brand Rwanda (Originally published 20th September at dawn.com)

Most countries ban the entry of drugs and alcohol on to their territory. As we prepare for landing in Kigali, the captain issues an unusual warning: Rwanda does not allow plastic bags. As I turn in bewilderment and some amusement to my Ugandan neighbour, he grins at my reaction. Jumping up to get rid of the duty-free plastic bag in his hand baggage, he explains that Kigali is arguably Africa’s cleanest city. And the government wants to keep it that way.The message is repeated at the very grand World Export Development Forum (WEDF) that I am attending in Kigali. As I moderate a panel on “Tourism and Development”, Abdou Jobe, Gambia’s Minister for Tourism, tells the audience, he is very impressed by the clean streets of Kigali. “A model for all of us,” he says with a smile as the hall bursts into applause.Cleanliness and environmental protection are only one small part of Rwanda’s new post-genocide narrative. As the country rebuilds after the horrors of the 1994 genocide, the government — and the people — are in a hurry, sharing a common desire to move forward as quickly as possible.The past is not forgotten — Rwanda commemorated 20 years of the genocide this year — but it is a spur to the future. My tourist guide takes me to the genocide memorial. But he is equally keen to show me the shiny shopping malls, banks and new high-rises coming up in central Kigali.It’s difficult not to be impressed. Having visited the country and neighbouring Burundi before the genocide, I remember Kigali as a sleepy town, overrun by aid workers. The “land of the thousand hills”, with its coffee and tea plantations, was strikingly beautiful but also very poor. Landlocked Rwanda needed roads, bridges and airports. But development was slow and plodding. And then there was the genocide. On April 6, 1994, a plane carrying Rwandan president Juvenal Habyarimana was shot down over the airport at Kigali, triggering massive civil unrest between the majority Hutu and minority Tutsi people. It is usually estimated that more than 800,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsis, were murdered in the following three months.I remember the feeling of despair as reports came in of the killing and maiming, of neighbours turning against each other, of some priests joining in the mass murders — and of the international community’s failure to stop the devastation. The United Nations has now apologised for its failure to act.The mea culpa is welcome, a Rwandan colleague tells me. But what the country needs now is to expand its trading potential, export more, attract investments, welcome more tourists, embrace information technology, improve connectivity.The list is long and ambitious. At the WEDF conference, President Paul Kagame insists that Rwandans are not going to give up until they have it all. It’s about hard work, ambition, jobs and growth, he says. Africa’s story — and the Rwandan story — is about high growth rates, providing jobs for the continent’s huge population of young people, making use of the talent and skills of women. The quicker the world realises the truth about the opportunities offered by a rising Africa, the better.Certainly, the Chinese, Indians and the Turks are listening. Negative perceptions of Africa as a continent mired in poverty and disease may still be difficult to shed in the West, but the WEDF conference is buzzing with Indian business leaders and Chinese entrepreneurs eager to invest in what many in Kigali insist is “the continent of the future”.There are other things that strike me. Rwanda, a former Belgian colony, used to be a French-speaking country but has switched with enthusiasm to English. Rwanda is the only country in the world with more women than men in parliament, a statistic that has attracted a good deal of international attention. The country boasts that 97 per cent of its children attend primary school — the highest rate in Africa. And Rwanda has another asset in the 1,000-strong population of mountain gorillas, some of the last surviving on the planet, which live in its rainforests and attract thousands of avid tourists.Much of the transformation has been engineered by Kagame, a Tutsi who grew up as a refugee in neighbouring Uganda, and led the Rwandan Patriotic Front in its resistance against the Hutu militias rampaging through the country. After the genocide ended in July 1994, he became vice-president. He became president in 2000 after his predecessor resigned and then won elections in 2003 and 2010.There is no doubting Kagame’s domestic popularity and reputation as an economic reformer. But critics complain of the president’s authoritarian style of government, allegedly patchy human rights record, and media controls. There are accusations that the Rwandan army is involved in and responsible for prolonging the conflict across the border in Congo. Recent hints that he may run for a third term as president in 2017 — a move which would require changing the constitution which allow for only two seven-year terms — have raised concerns.But Kagame is having none of it. “I think at some point we need to leave countries and people to decide their own affairs,” he told students and faculty staff after a recent speech in the US. At the WEDF, I hear that Kagame engages in the same “tough love” approach towards his people as Lee Kuan Yew, the hard-driving former prime minister of Singapore.Certainly, modern Rwanda is not yet Singapore but it is a far cry from the sleepy nation I remember from over twenty years ago. The genocide-devastated country is now one of Africa’s most determined and hard-working nations. As I leave the country, the man at the immigration desk asks me to come back soon. “And the next time, don’t just attend a conference, travel around and see this country,” he urges. I tell him that I intend to.

View From Abroad: Worrying over Scotland’s ripple effect (Originally published 13/09/14 at dawn.com)

Artur Mas is watching next week’s referendum on Scottish independence with an eagle eye. The president of the Spanish region of Catalonia is not alone.The Scottish vote next Thursday is under scrutiny in a host of European regions where leaders and public opinion are hoping that if Scotland votes to go it alone and leave the United Kingdom, their own regions’ aspirations for independence could gain traction.Yes, certainly, any Scottish vote for independence will trigger a domino effect for similar situations throughout Europe. Not surprisingly, Spain is worried as are Belgium and France.In fact, representatives of Catalans, South Tiroleans, Corsicans, Bretons, Frisians and “Finland-Swedes” are headed for Scotland to witness the vote. Even Bavaria in Germany is sending a delegation.The interest in Scotland is no surprise. History offers few examples of nations splitting up in a consensual way. There was of course the so-called “velvet divorce” between the Czechs and the Slovaks in 1993. And Norway also voted for independence from Sweden in 1905.But as the creation of Bangladesh illustrates, nation states often go to war when a region seeks secession.Importantly, it’s not just the rest of Europe that is watching the debate in Scotland. For instance, China is worried that Taiwan could become more confrontational.Look carefully and it appears that Europe is in the grip of a contradictory movement: even as the “big is beautiful” debate gains traction and the Union of 28 states moves towards more integration — and more countries join the queue to become members of the EU — restless regions in many nations yearn for more autonomy.It’s about cultural identity, not just in a globalised world, but about identity in a nation state. About being recognised as significant and different — and often about economic interest.Scotland thinks it would be better off it did not have to share its oil and gas revenues with the rest of the UK. Flanders thinks its funds are being misused by the less prosperous Walloonia region.Truth be told: it’s not just the countries facing such “secessionist” moves that are struggling to understand the new trend, the wider EU is also not prepared.A further complication is of course that irrespective of the results of the Scottish vote, Britain itself may end up leaving the EU.Yes, it’s a mess. As Scotland prepares to vote on Sept 18, the debate appears fairly civilised. Britain has accepted the referendum and says it will abide by the results.Certainly, Prime Minister David Cameron and other political leaders are campaigning actively — and emotionally — for Scotland to stay in the UK — and even the Queen is reportedly worried about Scottish independence. And interestingly, London is promising all kinds of goodies if Scotland votes “no” to independence next week. But it all seems fairly civilised and – dare I say it – good-natured.Not so in Spain. Madrid is undoubtedly worried that Scotland’s situation could embolden separatists in the Catalonia region and a tentatively scheduled referendum set for Nov 9 in Catalonia has been ruled unconstitutional by Spanish courts and the Spanish government.With 7.5 million Catalans speaking their own language and running a large economy in north-eastern Spain, the separatist politicians in Barcelona command huge support. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to block Catalan plans for independence referendum and to ignore the results.In addition to Catalonia, the Basque region of Spain also is home to a budding legion of separatists who want to vote for independence.Catalan leader Mas has said a “yes” vote in Scotland would be positive for Catalonia’s independence movement.In Belgium, it’s Flanders that is getting increasingly restless. The symbolic value of what is going to happen in Scotland is very important,” according to Gerolf Annemans, president of Vlaams Belang, a Flemish party calling for Flanders to secede from Belgium.According to Gerard Dykstra, a spokesman for Corsica Libera, a political party formed from a variety of pro-independence organisations early last year, separating from France is about giving Corsicans their “national rights”.“We are the lonely people in Europe. We are a nation in Europe that does not have its rights.”Interestingly both Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond and Artur Mas insist that even though they want to exit their nation states, they want continued EU membership — or re-entry into the EU.But Brussels has warned that such thinking is naive and that Scotland cannot count on automatic EU membership if it leaves the UK.The conventional wisdom in Brussels is that Scotland will have to negotiate EU entry just like any other applicant country. And it seems likely that Spain for one — fearing a precedent for Catalonia — will veto Scotland’s membership.And Salmond should take note: the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said that he does not see any further EU “enlargement” over the next five years.And in case, Scotland thinks it can cut corners, Salmond may want to chat with his friends in Ankara: Turkey has been trying to negotiate EU membership and the like for almost 50 years. And the discussions could take another fifty.

View from abroad: Why Cold War is back — sort of (Originally published 06/09/2014)

IN case you haven’t noticed there’s a new swagger to Nato, the 28-nation Western military alliance that many thought had outlived its usefulness with the end of the Cold War.Well, guess what, the Cold War is back — sort of — and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is once again in the international spotlight. No longer viewed as another has-been institution, a relic of the past, Nato is now universally recognised as a crucially important alliance to ward off threats from Russia, which threatens Europe’s security from the east, and the nasty “Islamic State” on Europe’s southern flank.It’s quite a turn-around for an organisation which many had given up as irrelevant and out-of-step with a deeply connected, inter-dependent and post-modern world. Leaders were supposed to be nice to each other, sign treaties of amity and cooperation, invest in each other’s economies and give up on wars and conflict.The talk was of “peace dividends”, turning guns into ploughs, the victory of democracy and the rule of law and a commitment to maintaining a liberal international order.Nato talked of “partnerships for peace”, extended a hand of friendship to Russia and to other former foes, countries which were once part of the Soviet Union.No longer. First, for all its economic networks and interdependence, flourishing of global trade and just generally, of globalisation, the world is proving to be a volatile, disorderly and unpredictable place.Suddenly, the future is not that bright or that secure. Far from witnessing the “end of history” as predicted by Francis Fukuyama in the euphoric period following the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, we are entering an “age of anxiety”.Mostly — but not only — this is due to President Vladimir Putin’s recent upending of the post-World War security order in Europe through his actions in Ukraine, starting with the seizure of Crimea five months ago and the subsequent destabilisation of other parts of the country.Russia’s actions and the outrage they have prompted across Europe and the US have undoubtedly given Nato new lease of life. The alliance’s summit held in Wales last week is proof that far from being relegated to the dustbin of history, Nato is back — possibly even with a bang.Or is it? While Nato’s rhetoric on Russia is strong and impressive, it’s far from certain that actions will match words. Take the decision to deploy a new and potentially significant Rapid Reaction Force to deter any further aggression by Russia against its neighbours.The Force would be ready to be deployed within days should there be any military aggression against one of the 28 N ato member nations. The military unit, numbering 4,000 troops, would be on high alert at all times, with additional logistical support stations set up in Eastern European statesThe decision is being hailed as an example of a new and more determined Nato but it falls short of the call by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk for the alliance put 10,000 troops in Poland.And there are fears that Nato member states won’t be able to find the funds to finance the Force.The problem is that not only is the alliance divided on how best to react to an increasingly aggressive Russia but defence spending in almost all member nations remains under two per cent of GDP, the goal set by Nato. Overall, Nato military budgets have shrunk by 20 per cent over the past five years, while Russia’s budget has risen by half.Also, Nato has tried to organise rapid-reaction forces in the past, with disappointing results. It first announced it would create a Nato Response Force in 2002, with as many as 13,000 troops. But it took two years to get the unit up and running. Even today, the force needs about 30 days to mobilise. Until this year, it had deployed only once, in 2005, to provide earthquake relief to Pakistan.Meanwhile, many Nato members in Europe have been deeply reluctant to challenge Russia — both for fear of spurring a wider conflict and because of domestic economic problems which could be exacerbated by a confrontation.But the 65-year-old alliance’s worries aren’t limited to Eastern Europe. IS, the terror group that has declared an independent state in Iraq and Syria in recent months, is threatening to send violent European “foreign fighters” to Nato members’ streets.Insiders say Britain is likely to join the US in airstrikes against Islamic State as public anger grows over the execution of Western hostages.Also as Nato troops prepare to depart at the end of the year, Afghanistan represents another headache. Nato officials say Afghans are now responsible for almost 100 per cent of their country’s security. But Nato has said it will remain committed to Kabul through the Nato-Afghanistan Enduring Partnership signed in 2010 and the Resolute Support mission to “train, advise and assist” Afghan forces.In addition, Nato is being challenged by Moscow to react to a new breed of “hybrid war”, a term used to describe Russia’s use of a broad range of hostile actions — including military force — to spur unrest.The Nato summit in Wales may not have been the “most momentous” in the alliance’s history as some predicted. But it does mean that Norway’s former prime minister Jens Stoltenberg who will be taking over as Nato Secretary General on October 1 will be inheriting a very different alliance than the one led by Anders Fogh Rasmussen over the last five years.

Why Global Europe must change in an “anxious age” (Originally published 04/09/2014)

Federica Mogherini’s appointment as the new European Union foreign policy chief offers an opportunity for an overhaul of EU foreign and security policy. With many EU leaders, ministers and senior officials slow to respond to world events given Europe’s traditionally long summer break, the 2014 summer of death and violence has left the reputation of “Global Europe” in tatters, highlighting the EU’s apparent disconnect from the bleak reality surrounding it. When she takes charge in November along with other members of the new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, Mogherini’s first priority must be to restore Europe’s credibility in an increasingly volatile and chaotic global landscape.It cannot be business as usual. A strategic rethink of Europe’s global outreach is urgent. Europe can no longer pretend that it is not – or only mildly – shaken by events on its doorstep. In a world where many countries are wracked by war, terrorism and extremism, EU foreign policy cannot afford to be ad hoc, reactive and haphazard. Given their different national interests and histories, European governments are unlikely to ever speak with “one voice” on foreign policy. But they can and should strive to share a coherent, common, strategic reflection and vision of Europe’s future in an uncertain and anxious world.Changing gears is going to be tough. Many of Europe’s key beliefs in the use of soft power, a reliance on effective multilateralism, the rule of law and a liberal world order are being shredded by governments and non-state actors alike. With emerging nations, especially in Asia, gaining increased economic and political clout, Europe has been losing global power and influence for almost a decade. Despite pleas by NATO and the crisis in Ukraine, most European governments remain reluctant to increase military and defence spending. At the same time, the Eurozone crisis and Europe’s plodding economic recovery with unacceptably high unemployment continue to erode public support for the EU both at home and abroad. Populist far-right and extreme-left groups in Europe – including in the European Parliament – preach a protectionist and inward-looking agenda. Most significantly, EU national governments are becoming ever greedier in seeking to renationalise important chunks of what is still called Europe’s “common foreign and security policy.”To prove her critics wrong - and demonstrate foreign policy expertise and flair despite only a six-month stint as Italy’s foreign minister - Mogherini will have to hit the ground running. Her performance at the European Parliament on September 2, including an adamant rejection of charges of being “pro-Russian”, appears to have been impressive. Admirers point out that she is a hard-working team player, who reads her briefs carefully and speaks fluent English and French in addition to her native Italian. These qualities should stand her in good stead as she manages the unwieldy European External Action Service (EEAS), plays the role of vice president of the European Commission, chairs EU foreign ministerial meetings, chats up foreign counterparts and travels around the world while also – hopefully – spearheading a strategic review of Europe’s global interests and priorities.The tasks ahead are certainly daunting. There is need for reflection and action on several fronts – all at the same time. Eleven years after the then EU High Representative Javier Solana drew up the much-lauded European Security Strategy (partially revised in 2008), Europe needs to reassess the regional and global security environment, reset its aims and ambitions and define a new agenda for action. But this much-needed policy overhaul to tackle new and evolving challenges must go hand-in-hand with quick fire-fighting measures to deal with immediate regional and global flashpoints.The world in 2014 is complex and complicated, multi-polar, disorderly and unpredictable. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have up-ended the post-World War security order in Europe. The so-called “Islamic State” is spreading its hateful ideology through murder and assassination in Syria and Iraq, not too far from Europe’s borders. A fragile Middle East truce is no guarantee of real peace between Israelis and Palestinians. These and other complex problems require multi-faceted responses.The days of one-size-fits-all foreign policy are well and truly over. In an inter-connected and interdependent world, foreign policy means working with friends but also with enemies, with like-minded nations and those which are non-like-minded, with competitors and allies. It’s fine to pay special attention to China, India and other headline-grabbing big countries but it could be self-defeating to ignore the significance and clout of Indonesia, Mexico and other middle or even small powers. Upgrading ties with the US remains crucial. While relations with states and governments are important they must go hand-in-hand with contacts with business leaders, civil society actors and young people. Finally, Europe needs to acquire a less simplistic and more sophisticated understanding of Islam and its Muslim neighbours, including Turkey, which has been left in uncertainty about EU membership for more than fifty years.Europe’s response to the new world must include a smart mix of brain and brawn, soft and hard power, carrots and sticks. Isolation and sanctions can’t work on their own but neither can a foreign policy based only on feel-good incentives. The EU’s existing foreign policy tools need to be sharpened but European policymakers also need to sharpen and update their view of the world. Mogherini’s youth and hopefully fresh stance on some of these issues could be an asset in this exercise. Importantly, Mogherini must work in close cooperation and consultation with other EU institutions, including the European Parliament and especially the European Commission whose many departments, including enlargement issues, trade, humanitarian affairs, environment, energy and development are crucial components of Global Europe. The failure of synergies among Commission departments is believed to be at least partly responsible for the weaknesses of the EU’s “Neighbourhood Policy”. Also, a coherent EU foreign policy demands close coordination with EU capitals. Recent experience shows that, as in the case of negotiations with Iran, the EU is most effective when the foreign policy chief works in tandem with EU member states. Closer contacts with NATO will also be vital if Europe is to forge a credible strategy vis-àvis Russia and Ukraine. Such cooperation is especially important if – as this article suggests – Mogherini embarks on a revamp of EU foreign and security policy.An incomplete list of key issues which require closer scrutiny in the days and weeks ahead includes:

• EU policymakers need to rethink relations with Russia following the Ukraine crisis and Moscow’s success in breaking down Europe’s post-World War security order. This requires a careful evaluation of EU-Russia relations which goes beyond the current focus on sanctions but includes the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas and the over-arching need to ensure immediate and long-term stability on Europe’s eastern flank. A key question to reflect over is whether US-EU restrictive measures can be effective in a world where other countries – in Asia, Africa and Latin America – are ready and willing to move in to the much-coveted Russian market. Mogherini has previously raised eyebrows for allegedly being soft on Russia but she has since told Italy's Corriere della Sera that sanctions against Russia are necessary, adding at the European Parliament that Moscow is no longer an EU strategic partner. But even as sanctions are ratcheted up,is it in Europe’s interest to isolate Russia – and should it even try? More immediately, will an EU-Russia summit go ahead as planned later this year or is there an interest in trying to re-establish a constructive conversation with Russia again?

• Events in Ukraine spotlight the failure of the EU’s goal of creating a “ring” of stable and well-governed states around its border and the glaring need to jettison the Neighbourhood Policy in favour of a less-exclusive and fresh strategy for a diverse region where none of the states are ready for EU membership and where the EU wields only limited influence given its modest financial resources and the increasing presence and funding possibilities from not just Russia but also China.

• Europe’s quasi silence over the summer’s violent events in the Middle East has dented EU credibility in a region where it once enjoyed a certain degree of respect. The EU needs to regain its role as an important actor in any peace talks which follow the current Israel-Palestinian truce. While taking part in upcoming Gaza reconstruction talks, Mogherini and her team must also reflect on the long-term validity of a situation where EU-funded projects (the EU spends US$600m on Gaza territories each year) are regularly reduced to rubble by Israeli military intervention.

• Even a more experienced foreign policy expert than Mogherini would find it difficult to hammer out an EU policy to stabilise Iraq and Syria in the face of the ruthless expansion of the “Islamic State”. Much will also depend on whether US President Obama is really as determined as he claims to be in leading a regional and international coalition to beat back the terrorists. European nations certainly have the military capabilities—such as the EU battle groups—to contribute to military actions together with the US. But there is no certainty that they will find the required political will – and public support - to take such steps. In any case, the EU needs to hammer out a medium to long-term strategy for political, humanitarian and financial efforts to stabilise the devastated region.

• In addition – and in any case - the EU needs not only to avert any domestic terrorist threat posed by “foreign fighters” who return to Europe from the Middle-East but also enhance its knowledge of Islam, its different interpretations and variations, distinguishing not only - as hopefully they now do - between Shia and Sunni but also among the various, often quixotic and radical sects promoted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mogherini’s thesis on Islamic politics should help her to spearhead such a reflection.

• More importantly a closer dialogue is needed with Turkey. Ankara may have been accused of allowing foreign fighters easy transit routes to Syria but its knowledge of the region continues to be valuable. Encouraged by the recent erratic and often-authoritarian actions of now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the EU has let its relationship with Turkey fester for much too long. Even if membership negotiations remain erratic and certain European leaders send out contrary political messages, Europe must find a way to revitalise relations with this important country. A closer dialogue with Iran, once the nuclear issue is surmounted, will help. Indonesia, only now being considered an interesting partner for the EU, has arguable even more insights to offer.

• The focus on the eastern and southern borders will not be enough. Europe’s hopes for being recognized as a valid and relevant global actor hinge on its relations with Asian nations, including China, India and Japan but also South Korea and the ten states in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). There is little the EU can do to directly tackle the so called “Asian paradox” whereby countries enmeshed in increasingly close economic networks are also embroiled in acrimonious territorial disputes. Mogherini would be well-advised to maintain strong EU ties with both Beijing and Tokyo while continuing to press for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants. EU support for South Korean President Parks’s North East Asia peace and cooperation initiative (NEAPCI) to build trust in the region should be considered. Disputes over history as well as maritime claims have meant that no Trilateral summit between the three countries since 2012. Mogherini could try and encourage the opening of a purposeful dialogue among the three nations, allowing stability to return to an economically prosperous but politically fragile area.

• Having injected new dynamism into its once lacklustre relationship with ASEAN over the last three years, the EU must not reduce its diplomatic and economic engagement with the region. This requires participation in all key ASEAN related events and a subtle but determined effort to become a member of the East Asia Summit, the region’s increasingly important dialogue forum. The EU already participates in many of the East Asia Summit’s activities through its cooperation with ASEAN in areas from economic and financial cooperation and environmental issues and disaster relief to education and research and technology.

Mogherini will not be able to do it on her own. Much will depend on the EEAS team she works with and the knowledge, expertise and passion her aides bring to their work. Team work and leadership, not micro-management, will be required.With the crisis in Ukraine and the volatile and dangerous violence spreading through the Middle East, the EU needs to rethink its foreign and security policy, asking itself three key questions: can Europe’s most-modern attachment to soft power, diplomacy and multilateralism, which have stood it well during the last decades, survive in an increasingly unstable and volatile world? How ready is the EU to forge a more muscular and interventionist approach? And can Europe make such a momentous policy U-turn at a time of falling European defence budgets and amid continuing public wariness of getting involved in foreign conflicts?Putting these issues on the backburner is no longer an option. The change of guard in Brussels is the right moment to review and reconsider Europe’s role in the world. Global Europe’s disconnect needs to be tackled before it’s too late.

ASEAN-EU to talk trade, security (Originally published 18/07/2014)

Asia remains high on the European Union’s foreign and security policy agenda following the meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations[1]) in Brussels on July 23.In August, security discussions dominated EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s participation in the influential ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Naypyidaw, Myanmar.  And mid-October, European and Asian leaders will gather in Milan for summit talks on injecting new life and momentum into their 18-year old ASEM (Asia Europe Meetings) partnership. (read more)Asia and Europe have worked hard to maintain momentum in their relations despite pressing - and difficult - domestic and regional concerns.  Such endeavours are to their credit.  However, the challenge facing participants at both the upcoming ASEAN and ASEM meetings is to build more trust and understanding - and take their relationship to a higher, more strategic level.Discussions at the EU-ASEAN meeting focused on an array of global and regional issues. But more importantly, both sides have specific long-standing demands which are likely to be raised.A “win-win” deal?For the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal.  The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes the ten-member ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others.  ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.ASEAN, meanwhile, is looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner”, the appointment of a special EU envoy accredited to the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.  While not opposed to either of these points, the EU has put ASEAN demands on hold.No breakthrough was expected at the meeting in Brussels. But if both sides play their cards correctly by engaging in innovative and creative diplomacy, the meeting could pave the way - further down the line - for a “win-win” deal on the EU’s entry into the EAS and the elevation of ASEAN to one of Europe’s “strategic partners”.As expected meanwhile, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. (read more)Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Domestic challengesKeeping Asia-Europe engagement on track has not been easy for either region. The EU still faces the over-arching challenge of consolidating a still-slow economic recovery, creating jobs, especially for young people, and deciding on the distribution of key EU posts, including the appointment of the next high-representative for foreign and security policy. Hammering out a coherent strategy vis a vis a more assertive and often-unpredictable Russia remains a challenge.  The EU is also still struggling to understand and respond to the continuing chaos and conflict in its southern neighbourhood.In Asia, meanwhile, conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas continue to strain relations between China and many of its neighbours and also challenge ASEAN’s claim to play a central role in the region.  In addition, ASEAN is grappling with a military coup in Thailand, ethnic violence in Myanmar amid preparations for next year’s presidential elections and the year-long political crisis over disputed election results in Cambodia.  While Jakarta mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is clearly the winner in Indonesia’s presidential elections, competing claims of victory by rival Prabowo Subianto have created unnecessary political confusion in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and most robust democracy.On the economic front, the Asian Development Bank has cut its initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent even as the region struggles to tackle problems posed by urbanisation, climate change and unequal development.Growing connectivityThe EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 (read more). The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity.  The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.Ashton’s participation in the ARF meeting in Napydaw ensures a much-needed, stronger EU-ASEAN dialogue on increasingly complex security issues. In a marked change over past years, there is already recognition of the need for a stronger EU-ASEAN conversation on security, including on non-traditional security threats including climate change, poverty alleviation, pandemics and illegal immigration.With 50% of world trade in tonnage passing through the South China Sea, the EU has taken a lead in establishing an EU-ASEAN high-level dialogue on maritime security, with a focus on port security, maritime surveillance, and the joint management of resources including fisheries and oil and gas.Significantly, while they once stayed carefully out of key Asian security disputes, EU countries with other Group of Seven leaders have expressed concern over tensions between China and some other Asian countries in the East and South China Seas, warned against any use of force and urged all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in accordance with international law.Deeper trustWhile much binds the two regions, upgrading EU-ASEAN ties requires deeper trust and understanding between the two sides. Encouragingly the earlier acrimony over participation and attendance at meetings is now buried.  Yet like ASEM gatherings, ASEAN meetings must become more inter-active and less formal and ritualistic. The focus on agenda items, prepared statements and out-dated rhetoric needs to be replaced by more open, frank and critical albeit constructive exchanges.Both sides have much to discuss and share.  They should be allowed to do so – even on difficult issues such as the military coup in Thailand, the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar or tensions in the South China Seas - without taking offense or engaging in an overzealous regard for diplomatic niceties.ASEAN and the EU have been talking to and working with each other for several decades - but the last three years have been especially important in binding the two regions together.  The Brunei Plan of Action adopted in 2012 laid the groundwork for a further intensification of EU-ASEAN ties. The meeting in Brussels should give added traction to EU-ASEAN engagement by preparing for a qualitative upgrade of relations within two to three years.

Indonesian elections matter to all of us (Originally published 07/07/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Elections in Indonesia matter to a closely watching world. The results of the presidential elections in the world’s third largest democracy on July 9 will determine the future direction of Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and dynamic economic powerhouse.Beyond that, Indonesia’s political choice will have an equally strong impact on its neighbours, the wider Asian region and also on Europe and the United States.  Most importantly, the way Indonesians vote will resonate across the Muslim world.Indonesians should know: their country offers a successful alternative model for Islamic societies, especially Egypt and other troubled Arab nations.As a Muslim majority country which is also a robust and vibrant democracy Indonesia is quite exceptional in a Muslim world dominated by monarchies, dictatorships and uncertain, vulnerable democracies.Indonesia’s experience in transiting from years of authoritarianism to democracy stands as an inspiration at a time when countries like Egypt are back peddling on meeting popular aspirations for change and political reform.Egypt’s failed democratic transition is proof that democracy needs visionary, thoughtful and cool-headed leaders, careful nurturing and can never be taken for granted.The choice Indonesians face now is simple: will they vote for a man who harks back to a past era, talks tough at a timewhen the world is looking for Indonesian “soft power” to tackle 21^st Century challenges or a young and dynamic politician who stands for a new and progressive Indonesia, ready to take its place as a global power.Indonesia over the last decade and more has witnessed a massive transformation of its economy, with analysts now predicting that by 2030, the country will have an economy larger than either Germany or the United Kingdom.Whoever takes over the reins of power will have to tackle a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy, over-reliance on commodity exports, infrastructure bottlenecks and corruption. Keeping Indonesia open for business and avoiding the dreaded “middle income trap” will be other important priorities. The next president will also need to confront the problem of religious extremism which threatens a country known for its tolerance and moderation.

The world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.

Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21^stCentury power.

ASEM: Why Asia-Europe relations matter in the 21st Century (Originally published 30/06/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

The Asia-Europe partnership, launched in Bangkok in 1996 to foster stronger relations between the two regions, is ready for a reset.Hopes are high that the 10^th Asia Europe Meeting – or ASEM summit – to be held in Milan on October 16-17 will confirm the credibility and relevance of Asia-Europe relations in the 21^st Century. ASEM has certainly survived many storms and upheavals over the last eighteen years. With ASEM’s 20^th anniversary in 2016 approaching rapidly, the challenge is not only to ensure the survival of the partnership but to create conditions for it to flourish and thrive.ASEM has been through different periods.  Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of apathy and disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important meetings. Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo opportunities.The talk now is about renewal and revival as Asians and Europeans seek to inject fresh oomph into ASEM. The focus is on energizing discussions through changed formats and a stronger focus on content.This is positive. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. It is also conditional on closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts. An ASEM business summit and peoples’ forum will be held in parallel with the leaders’ meeting.Fresh ideasEncouragingly, efforts to reinvigorate ASEM have already begun. Asian and European foreign ministers and senior officials have been meeting over the last two years to try and thrash out a new and potentially winning formula for ASEM’s revival. Fresh ideas and formats to recapture ASEM’s original informality and flexibility are being put to the test. Efforts are being made to focus on content, not process. Long-winded communiques are being slimmed down. And leaders are being encouraged to engage in real conversations, not read from prepared papers, while also using ASEM’s immense networking opportunities for increased bilateral contacts.These and other initiatives are important and should go a long way in making ASEM more interesting and useful – and perhaps even more visible to the public.  To stay in sync with a changing global political and economic landscape, ASEM is trying harder to adapt to and reflect new realities. Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit – “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” – allows for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial questions linked to food, water and energy security.High-level supportAs Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director at the European External Action Service (EEAS) points out, Asia matters for Europe - and, just as importantly, Europe matters for Asia. Messages of support for the partnership have also been made in recent months by the Chinese, Japanese and Russian leaders. A statement released after President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China meetings in Brussels underlined the “growing role of trans-regional and regional dialogue mechanisms to promote regional peace and prosperity”, with leaders saying they looked forward to the ASEM summit in Milan. Subsequently, an EU-Japan statement highlighted ASEM’s “value” as a forum for dialogue and cooperation.  And interestingly, after their talks in Shanghai recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin defined ASEM as an “important platform for the exchange of economic and trade cooperation in other fields, social, cultural, etc.,” adding that they were “willing to strengthen cooperation and promote the ASEM to enhance work efficiency”.Connectivity, connectivity, connectivityEngagement between the two regions has been increasing over the years, both within and outside ASEM. Five of the 51 (set to rise to 52 with Croatia joining in October) ASEM partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia – are the EU’s strategic partners. Turkey and Kazakhstan have formally voiced interest in joining ASEM although approval of their applications will take time. There is now a stronger EU-Asian conversation on trade, business, security and culture.Exports to Asia and investments in the region are pivotal in ensuring a sustainable European economic recovery while the EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe, helping Asian governments to maintain growth and development.  European technology is in much demand across the region. Not surprisingly, Asia-Europe economic interdependence has grown. With total Asia-Europe trade in 2012 estimated at € 1.37 trillion, Asia has become the EU’s main trading partner, accounting for a third of total trade. More than a quarter of European outward investments head for Asia while Asia’s emerging global champions are seeking out business deals in Europe. The increased connectivity is reflected in the mutual Asia-Europe quest to negotiate Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)and investment accords.The FTAs concluded with South Korea and Singapore and similar deals under negotiation with Japan, India and individual ASEAN –the Association of Southeast Asian Nations– countries as well as the bilateral investment treaty under discussion with China are important in consolidating EU-Asia relations. These and other initiatives illustrate enhanced recognition that the two regions must work closely together to ensure not only national and regional prosperity but also sustainable and inclusive global growth.Beyond tradeASEM’s connectivity credentials go beyond trade and economics.  In addition to the strategic partnerships mentioned above, Asia and Europe are linked through an array of cooperation accords. Discussions on climate change, pandemics, illegal immigration, maritime security, urbanization and green growth are frequent among multiple government ministries and agencies in both regions, reflecting a growing recognition that 21^st Century challenges can only be tackled through improved global governance and failing that through “patchwork governance” involving cross-border and cross-regional alliances.

While Asia’s rise dominates the headlines, the region’s leaders are cognizant of the many challenges they face – and often look to Europe for cooperation in tackling them. Many Asian countries did not succumb to the woes plaguing the American and European economies but governments in economic powerhouses like China, India and Indonesia are acutely aware of the dangers of falling into the “middle income trap” of economic stagnation. Even as an emerging Asian middle class aspires for a better life and working conditions, the region is grappling with environmental degradation, rampant urbanisation, poor implementation of labour standards and lax quality controls on consumer products. Wealth inequalities persist despite the region’s successful attempts to reduce poverty.

Security: The Asian paradoxDiscussions on security are an important part of the political pillar in ASEM, with leaders exchanging views on regional and global flashpoints. Given current tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, this year’s debate should be particularly important.

Some call it the “Asian paradox”. Even as economic cooperation and - in the case of ASEAN - economic integration gathers pace in Asia, historical animosities and unresolved territorial conflicts weigh heavily on the region, damaging relations between governments and people.  The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who warn that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Asian views of Europe’s security role are also changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.  As such, eearlier scepticism of Europe’s security credentials is being replaced by recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy human rights.In addition, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner to deal with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change. Clearly also, the EU remains an inspiration for Asia’s own regional integration initiatives, including ASEAN, and in areas such as rules-based collective security.The seas…Europeans too are starting to become more aware of their security credentials and the global implications of instability in Asia, not least as regards maritime security. “The EU’s essential interests are closely tied up with the security of East Asia,” due largely to implications for navigation and commerce, underlines an EU Council document issued in 2012. The recently approved EU maritime security strategy identifies several threats to EU interests including cross-border and organised crime, threats to freedom of navigation, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and environmental risks.  Respect for international law and especially the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea are emphasised.  Importantly, several Asian and European countries are working together in the EU-led ATALANTA counter-piracy operation in the Western Indian Ocean.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts. The European Union has signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region. High-level European and Asian representatives are now regular participants at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore.A changing worldMuch has changed in Asia and Europe since ASEM’s launch.  The last 18 years have seen the sustained rise of a self-confident Asia and much soul-searching in Europe over the region’s global relevance. ASEAN efforts to create a frontier-free economic community are speeding up and Myanmar, once the global pariah and the cause of much Asia-Europe acrimony, is now firmly committed to political reform. Europe’s economic troubles have made it less strident in promoting a values-based agenda and while the United States’ “pivot” to Asia certainly prodded Europe to become more active in the region, Asia and Europe have discovered the value of interacting with each other without America.Still ASEM faces strong competition. There is no dearth of rival groupings and countries have become adept at “forum shopping” as they seek to build interest-based coalitions. In a multipolar world, the G20 which brings together industrialised and emerging countries now has to fight for its place against other alliances such as BRICS (which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia).  A host of other regional and cross-regional groupings litter an increasingly crowded global landscape.

Even as economic connectivity rises, Asia and Europe are witnessing the rise of nationalist and populist movements and politics in many countries are becoming more national and inward-looking. At the same time, as underlined by Yeo Lay Hwee of the European Union Centre at the National University of Singapore, relations between states have become more complex and multi-dimensional as countries vacillate between cooperation and competition and even conflict. Asians worry that the entry into the European Parliament of extremist and populist parties will generate a “Little Europe” mindset which fears globalisation and free trade.  Europeans fret over rising China-Japan and Japan-South Korean tensions as well as Beijing’s deteriorating relations with Hanoi and Manila.

No time to lose: EU needs a new agenda for action (Originally published 28/05/2014)

So far, so predictable. As expected, voter turn-out in the European Parliament elections was modest, Far Right and populist parties made big gains, Jean Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister, whose European People’s Party (EPP) has the largest number of seats in the new assembly wants to be the next president of the European Commission – and EU leaders are undecided on what to do next.They should not be. The “wake up call” delivered by voters demands urgent responses and a complete reassessment of EU priorities.The attention must move from austerity to growth and jobs. The EU must do better at communicating with people. The populist rhetoric of the Far Right parties must be countered with a new, more assertive agenda for building a competitive, secure and credible Europe which is responsive to its citizens’ concerns but still able to play an important role in its neighborhood and on the global stage.And of course, EU leaders must reach a quick decision on nominating a new European Commission president, capable of enacting and implementing a fresh and ambitious agenda for Europe.This is not the moment for protracted squabbling on the way ahead – either on policies to follow or people to nominate. The first post-election meeting of EU leaders held on Tuesday was not a good start, however.Instead of cool-headed assessments and a focus on overhauling policies, the gathering heard the expected spate of complaints and recriminations about Europe having lost its way.With the Front National in the lead at home, French President François Hollande lamented that the EU project had become “remote and incomprehensible”, reflecting a "distrust in Europe and a fear of decline". British Prime Minister David Cameron noted peoples’ deep disillusionment and desire for change as the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) came first in the domestic vote.Criticism is good but this is the time for leaders to look ahead – and to take responsibility for the current state of Europe.The meeting on Tuesday also showed that a quick decision on a new European Commission president – and the other top EU jobs up for grabs – also seems unlikely.EU leaders have traditionally named the Commission head on their own, but under the Lisbon Treaty, they now have "to take account" of the European election results. But many have made clear that while Juncker may be the European Parliament’s favourite son, he does not have an “automatic” right to become the next Commission chief. Significantly, however, the Parliament must ultimately approve the next head of the EU executive.Causing alarm – and possibly triggering a long, difficult and damaging Council/Parliament battle - German Chancellor Angela Merkel recognized that while “the EPP is the strongest political force and Jean-Claude Juncker is our top candidate” the net should be cast wider to include other “suitable persons”.The spotlight now falls on European Council President Herman Van Rompuy who will consult European Parliament political groups and EU heads of government on the nomination of the Commission president. The EU summit on June 26-27 may take a final decision.European citizens need more – and better. EU leaders should start setting a new “action agenda” for the next five years. Key questions that need urgent responses include:- Is the EU ready to put growth and jobs at the centre of its policies and actions, replacing the focus on austerity?- Will there be a new push towards a full EU banking union, with centralised supervision?- Can there be a rebalancing of powers between EU and national authorities?- Can the EU continue to play an important global role despite the “little Europe”, anti-globalisation and anti-trade and protectionist manifestos of the Far Right and populist parties?- How best can the EU reconcile its skills shortages and economic need for immigration with the tough anti-foreigner and xenophobic message of the Far Right groups?- Will the EU be able to pursue a common energy policy and reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas – and develop a sensible policy towards Russia given the pro-Moscow stance taken by many of the winning populist parties?- Can a better job be done on developing a credible, positive and relevant narrative for Europe to counter the simplistic and toxic anti-EU message of the populist and anti-European parties?For all the publicity given to the populists’ surge in the polls, it is true that the pro-European centre-right and centre-left parties will still dominate the Parliament and set the agenda for Europe.It is also possibly true that the Far Right groups will be too fragmented and quarrelsome to dominate the European conversation.But while such arguments are valid, they miss the point: EU politicians have done a very poor job of engaging with citizens and listening seriously to their fears and concerns. No effort has been made to develop a strong counter-narrative to the anti-European message of the Far Right. This is the time to do so.Change is always difficult and painful. But it can no longer be avoided.

Indian elections: Gearing up for a “new” India? (Originally published 20/05/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz and Gauri Khandekar)

Expectations of change are high as Narendra Modi, leader of the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), takes charge as India’s new prime minister.Critics describe him as controversial and polarising. But with his ground-breaking outright parliamentary majority, Modi certainly has the mandate to take strong and decisive action to revive economic growth and tackle India’s many other challenges.Indian business leaders have embraced Modi as their man, seeing him as the best hope for ending paralysed government policy and bringing in more foreign investment.An impressive turnaround in the fortunes of Gujarat, the Indian state he led as chief minister since 2001 (his supporters speak of a “Gujarat model of success”), has further burnished Modi’s credentials.Still it won’t be easy. With India’s economic reform and liberalisation programme running out of steam and growth falling from 10.3 per cent in 2010 to less than 5 per cent annually, the new prime minister faces an uphill struggle to turn election pledges into effective national policies.A paradigm political shiftHe has the voters with him. Modi’s election victory is stunning, triggering a tectonic paradigm shift in Indian electoral politics. The BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), won 336 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament), with the BJP itself securing a sweeping outright majority by winning 283 seats.The impressive numbers mean that he owes his victory to Indians from every caste, class and religious background, including Muslims, many of whom appear to have set aside their suspicions about his role in the bloodletting in Gujarat in 2002. Modi has always denied any wrongdoing and the Indian Supreme Court ruled in 2010 he had no case to answer.The election also signals a radical transformation of India’s political landscape, with the long-ruling Congress Party, led by the Gandhi dynasty, winning only 44 seats, down from 209 in the previous Lok Sabha.Good times are comingDuring hundreds of rallies across the country, the BJP leader promised his voters that “good times are coming” as he vowed to promote development, revive economic growth, tackle youth employment, build a world-class infrastructure, and ensure women’s safety.The list of tasks for the incoming government is long and Modi, who campaigned on promises of “smaller government, more governance”, will have to act fast.The first priorities will be to kick-start the economy, overhaul the infrastructure sector and with 13 million young people entering the job market every year, the new Indian leader will have to act quickly to deliver on promises to create jobs.It will be a challenge. Analysts say India must create 10 million jobs a year, four times the pace of the last 5 years, to absorb youth into the workforce. Over half the country’s population is aged under 25 years.Big and boldRebooting India’s economy will require big and bold reforms on several fronts, including changes in labour laws which discourage foreign companies from setting up factories in India. Such a change is pivotal: revving up the manufacturing is essential to create more jobs, but manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of India’s economy, compared to 31 per cent in China.An overhaul of India’s tax system and better infrastructure will also help encourage foreign investors. In addition, with his focus on urbanisation, Modi has promised to build 100 new cities and construct a high-speed rail network.With 400 million Indians still living in desperate poverty and 217 million of the country’s children malnourished, enormous social challenges continue to demand attention.Much will depend on the distribution of key portfolios such as finance, external affairs, defence and interior. All eyes are also on the first budget, expected to be released in June or July, which could give clear signs on the government’s economic vision and policy priorities.Foreign policy challenges Modi spoke little about foreign policy during the election campaign, leading to speculation that a drastic shift from past policies is unlikely, not least because of the continuity provided by India’s permanent bureaucracy. Analysts concur that the government’s engagement with the outside world is expected to focus heavily on trade and investment.Pakistan has wasted no time in making overtures to the incoming prime minister. Modi has been invited to visit Pakistan but many are worried the new Indian prime minister will be hostile towards its neighbour. The optimistic view is that Modi will follow in the footsteps of the former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who was also a BJP leader but developed good relations with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s. Sharif is also Pakistan’s current prime minister. In addition, Modi’s domestic growth and jobs agenda requires stability in India’s neighbourhood.The new Indian leader will have to make up his mind on whether he wants to do business and trade with China or whether – as some of his statements have indicated – he will adopt a more assertive posture towards Beijing. The body language between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Brazil in July - likely to be one of Modi’s first overseas visits — will give a first signal of the future relationship between two of Asia’s leading powers.Modi will almost certainly pursue stronger economic ties with Japan, with an eye on expanding the flow of Japanese investments into the country. Relations with ASEAN are likely to be further consolidated as part of India’s “Look East” policy of upgrading economic ties with Asia’s rising economies.Oh, America! The greatest momentum in US-Indian relations came during the 2000s, when India was growing at rates approaching 10 per cent – but the once-thriving relationship hit stormy weather last year over allegations that a New York-based Indian diplomat, Devyani Khobragade, had committed visa fraud over the employment of a maid. The situation is made more complex by the fact that Modi is the only person ever to be banned from traveling to the US under the International Religious Freedom Act. A congressional report earlier this year said the BJP leader would qualify for a visa if he became leader. US President Barack Obama has said he looks forward to working closely with the new Indian leader to “fulfill the extraordinary promise of the US-India strategic partnership.” Modi is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September. A visit to Washington is likely to follow.Last but not least: Europe… Given the expected focus on Washington, Beijing and Pakistan, relations with the European Union (EU) are not likely to be an immediate top priority for the new government. The EU is hoping, however, that Modi will put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the much delayed EU-India Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA).“Investors from Europe are bullish about India’s growth potential and want to see New Delhi and Brussels iron out their differences over the BTIA. We hope that the new Indian Government will be able to take some hard decisions necessary to spur growth and investments,” says Sunil Prasad, Secretary-General of the Brussels-based Europe-India Chamber of Commerce (EICC).Brussels and Delhi have been trying to clinch the elusive investment deal for the last seven years. But differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights have impeded progress.The opening up of Indian’s insurance market, changes in government procurement rules and market access for automobiles as well as wines and spirits are important issues for the EU. India is insisting on more labour mobility, professional work visas and recognition as a data secure country to attract more European investments in its high tech sector.EU officials say the pact could be signed in 2015 – provided both sides summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations. A recent EU ban on imports of Indian mangoes because of phyto-sanitary concerns has injected new strains in the relationship, however.Stronger interest Beyond the BTIA, Brussels is hoping the new government will demonstrate stronger interest in developing the EU-India relations.Europe and India have much to discuss. The new government’s jobs and growth programme resonates deeply in Brussels given the EU’s own struggle to generate employment and boost economic recovery. Both sides confront the challenge of expanding economic reforms, bolstering trade and tackling regional disparities.The EU-India conversation on security and counter-terrorism has taken off as has cooperation on regulatory cooperation and data protection. Discussions on environmental protection, urbanisation and water and food security are ongoing.The challenge now is to take the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level. European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will be an important step in marking a fresh start in relations. Convening such a meeting should be a priority.

Myanmar today: Tackling the good, the bad and the ugly (Originally published 09/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

After five decades of repressive military rule, Myanmar’s political and economic transformation continues to impress. The country is preparing for milestone elections in autumn 2015, ceasefire talks have opened with ethnic groups and work begun on important constitutional changes ahead of next year’s polls. With the economy growing by 6-7 percent a year and labour costs still low, foreign investments are pouring in. Myanmar’s current chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides President Thein Sein with a further opportunity to boost the country’s regional and international profile.And yet. Initial optimism over Myanmar’s transition is beginning to wear thin. Increasing ethnic violence and civil unrest, especially in Rakhine state, among Buddhist groups and the stateless Rohingya Muslims, is a big, dark spot on Myanmar’s credentials. With thousands of Rohingya forced to live in overcrowded camps or flee by boat, beleaguered relief agencies – many of which have been forced out of the country - have warned of a humanitarian crisis in the strife-hit state.International criticism of the government’s failure to stem the violence is increasing, with 46 countries, including the United States (US), recently joining forces with the European Union (EU) at the United Nations Human Rights Council to express serious concern over the situation of the Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State. The resolution also asked for the extension of the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on Myanmar for one more year and urged an opening of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the country.Inclusive growthAdditionally, there is concern that while growth rates are high, Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most impoverished countries. Foreign partners worry that any slowdown in reform efforts in the run up to elections will make it even more difficult for the government to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.On the bright side, attracted by a growing consumer base and low-cost workforce, foreign investors are lining up to establish a foothold in Myanmar. A foreign investment law was passed in 2012 allowing some overseas firms to fully own ventures. In a bid to further open up, a Telecommunications Law was passed last year and foreign energy companies have recently been given rights to explore offshore Myanmar. The country is also slowly opening up its banking sector, with foreign banks expected to be allowed to operate independently by the end of the year. About 35 international banks already have representative offices in Myanmar.The next stage of political reform looks set to be especially challenging. The government is hoping for progress toward peace through the signature of a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with ethnic armed groups. Preliminary talks were held in Thailand at the end of January and the second round in Yangon, on March 9-10. The third round to coordinate the joint-drafting of a single nationwide document was completed on April 8, with both sides agreeing on the titles of the seven-chapter draft which will be further discussed in early May. Formal high-level peace talks to set a date for the signing of the agreement are expected to take place in Hpa-an, capital of Kayin state. Once ready, the deal will be signed by the government, parliament, the armed forces, political parties and leaders of different ethnic groups.The government has also embarked on the difficult task of amending the constitution, including article 59(f), which debars opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because of the foreign citizenship of her children and late husband. The process is proving to be more complex than anticipated, however, prompting fears the reform process is running out of steam.President Sein raised hopes earlier this year by voicing support for changing the constitution to allow “any citizen,” to run for the presidency in 2015. But preliminary non-binding recommendations issued in January by the Constitutional Review Joint Committee, a 109-member parliamentary body tasked with reviewing proposals to amend the nation’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, suggest insufficient support for this change although a greater devolution of authority to states and regions, a key demand of many ethnic groups, appears to have the green light. These recommendations will now be reviewed by a 31-member committee which will, in turn, report to the parliament.The census currently under way in the country – which also asks sensitive questions about race and ethnicity that human rights groups have repeatedly warned puts vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya (regarded by the authorities as illegal Bengali immigrants) at additional risk, is another complication. Ethnic minorities, which together make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s population, contend that they were not properly consulted ahead of the census, which requires respondents to identify themselves as one of 135 ethnic groups.Cautious ASEAN chairMyanmar joined ASEAN in 1997 and was to take the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 but was passed over amid international pressure due to its poor human rights record. Although the country now shines in the global spotlight, as current ASEAN chair, Myanmar faces a tough regional agenda, with its partners and the international community anxious about the country’s ability to host the multiple high-level meetings scheduled for the year and to keep ASEAN on course to meet its 2015 end-target for establishing a frontier-free economic community.At a time when ASEAN needs strong leadership, dealing with difficult issues such as conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines will also be a challenge. Analysts say Myanmar performed well at the first informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers held in Bagan earlier this year by steering the group to release a short statement calling on states to settle disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In comparison, two years ago, when Cambodia was ASEAN chair, the organisation split under pressure from Beijing to avoid any mention of the South China Sea.Significantly, Myanmar is also current chair of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), and as such is under strong pressure from increasingly vocal ASEAN civil society groups to adhere to the human rights commitments which are part of the ASEAN Charter.A role for Europe Despite competition from the US, China, Japan, India and others, the EU has quickly emerged as a key partner for Myanmar. EU sanctions – except on exports of weapons - were lifted in April 2013 and the country was brought into the “Everything but Arms” trade regime which provides duty free and quota access for exports from least developed states. As a result, bilateral EU-Myanmar trade is expanding rapidly, climbing up to €569 million last year, a 41% increase compared to 2012 (€403 million).EU investment in Myanmar has so far been limited as a result of sanctions. According to Myanmar’s official figures, cumulated existing EU investments amounted to some US$ 3.1 billion in 2013 (9% of Myanmar’s FDI). This is set to change, however, as investors scour the country for business opportunities and the EU and Myanmar launch negotiations on an investment protection treaty which Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said will become an important accelerator for reform in the country.“Experience has shown that improving legal certainty and predictability for investments is key in providing business opportunities and much-needed development for this growing economy,” De Gucht said during a recent visit to Myanmar. The deal is expected to provide European investors with guarantees against discrimination, expropriation without compensation and protection against unfair and inequitable treatment.EU aid to Myanmar is increasing. The EU committed €100 million of the total €150 million in assistance to the country in 2012, with the money being spent on existing education and health support schemes and for people who have been internally displaced as a result of the country's numerous ethnic conflicts. In 2013, commitments totaled €50 million covering longer-term support to trade and the private sector, ethnic peace, climate change as well as more support to civil society. EU aid to Myanmar is expected to increase by 20 percent in 2014. There is also an agreement in principle that the European Investment Bank (EIB) will extend its operations to Myanmar, with a focus on infrastructure projects including transport and energy, forestry and the opening of credit lines to selected local banks for on-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.An important balancing act The EU’s focus on economics is important. Through trade and aid, Europe can help ease poverty in the country and play a vital role in helping the government to strike the right balance between rapid economic growth and sustainable and inclusive development.Encouragingly, Europe is also keeping up the pressure on human rights in both its bilateral contacts with Myanmar and in international fora such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. Acting on different fronts, EU funds are being used to help Myanmar’s political and economic transition through government capacity-building, support for the Myanmar Human Rights Commission and the Election Commission. EU support is also being channelled to the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC), created by the government to secure peace in ethnic areas as well as to the peace process and the development of ethnic areas. In addition, ethnic groups have also received assistance to enable their participation in peace talks.As it deepens its engagement with Myanmar – and ASEAN – the EU should continue to balance its economic overtures to the country with continuing pressure on issues of human rights, good governance and the rule of law.Myanmar has come a long way in a very short time. Visionaries in the government and the region say there is no reason the country cannot fulfil its long-term ambition to become a regional powerhouse. To make the dream a reality, however, Myanmar will have to learn that economic growth and progress must be shared by all its people, human rights must be respected – and there must be a place in the country for all ethnic groups, whatever their religion.

Afghanistan: beyond elections (Originally published 01/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Afghans go to the polls on April 5 to elect a new leader to replace President Hamid Karzai. The elections – leading to Afghanistan’s first-ever peaceful democratic transfer of power – are important. As Western forces withdraw from the country and development aid dwindles, the winner will have to tackle an array of complex challenges requiring innovative and strategic thinking.Afghanistan’s next president faces the gigantic task of stabilising a country racked by a continuing violent insurgency and an economy in tatters. Relations with neighbours must be improved. Stability beyond 2014 is also conditional on the ability of Afghanistan’s new leaders to hang on to hard-won gains.Attention is inevitably focused on the polls and negotiation of a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States (US). However, democracy and accountability are not ensured by elections alone. Election monitors, both foreign and Afghan, must do their best to ensure that the polls are transparent and fair. The focus this time around must, however, also be on good governance, not merely on identifying winners and losers.The US is certainly the key player in Afghanistan but the European Union (EU) is also well-placed to help the country weather difficulties ahead. The change in leadership offers an opportunity to reinvigorate EU-Afghanistan relations and forge a stronger long-term partnership.First, the good news. Voter turn-out is expected to be impressive. A recent survey published by the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) shows that more than 91 percent of respondents support the holding of elections and more than 74 percent want to participate.Large numbers of army, police and international forces as well as local observers have been deployed to help secure the elections. More than 13,000 women will also help with security to boost gender participation. A large number of younger voters will be casting their ballots for the first time.The line-up of candidates is convincing. The three main candidates — former Foreign Ministers Abdullah Abdullah, Zalmai Rassoul and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani — have sound experience. Qayum Karzai, President Karzai's brother, has formally withdrawn his bid for president and announced support for Rassoul. Significantly, the presidential campaign has not only centred on personalities, but also on issues.Observers say some fraud and vote rigging is inevitable, but not on the massive scale that characterised the 2009 polls. With no candidate expected to emerge as an outright winner on April 5, a run-off election is expected, delaying the installation of a new leader until July or August.The list of challenges is daunting. Security continues to be a major problem. Kabul and a number of other provinces have experienced a spate of suicide attacks and assassinations after the Taliban leadership issued a statement last month promising to "use all force" possible to disrupt the elections. The recent attack on the Independent Afghan Election Commission was especially deadly.Afghanistan’s economy remains in shambles – and highly dependent on the presence of international forces. Despite the billions of dollars poured into the country, Afghanistan continues to lie near the bottom of global development rankings. Poverty is widespread, with the government estimating that 42 per cent of the country's total population lives below the national poverty line.As foreign troops pull out and investment dries up, growth is expected to tumble to 3.5 per cent in 2014, down sharply from 14.4 per cent in 2012. Rampant corruption and patronage further hinder economic development.Yet Afghanistan has a wealth of natural resources and a young population which – if the conditions are right – can ensure economic development. Agriculture, mining, and services are likely to remain the drivers of growth but more needs to be done to increase private-sector investment, improve domestic resource mobilisation and foster job creation. The new government will face the challenge of pressing for critical sector-specific reforms, including the Mining Law. It will also have to tackle the sharp increase in opium poppy cultivationTies with Pakistan remain fraught, owing to Kabul’s allegations of Islamabad’s involvement in terror incidents in Afghanistan. Relations with other regional powers are less fraught but will need to be carefully nurtured to avoid a repeat of the instability of the 1990s.The EU is one of Afghanistan’s major aid partners, spending over 2 billion euros in Afghanistan since 2002. Promises of long-term support have been made with Europe’s special representative to Afghanistan, Franz-Michael Skjold Mellbin, underlining that the “EU will remain as a key partner for Afghanistan, as Afghanistan moves toward a decade of transformation.”Moving beyond aid, the EU and Afghanistan are discussing a comprehensive strategy which will focus on areas where the EU can add most value, including further improvements in access to health and education and respect for human rights.Going forward, the EU must remain engaged and build on the successes of the past. Europe is well placed to share its expertise and support Afghanistan in turning the page. Over the past years, the EU has helped the government to provide basic services in three main areas: governance and rule of law, agriculture and rural development and health and social protection. Security sector reform should become more important.Recognising the important role that women play in shaping peace and security, women’s rights should be given a higher priority in EU contacts with Afghanistan. Stronger support for Afghan civil society will remain important.The election of a new president presents an opportunity to finalise EU-Afghan negotiations on a Cooperation Agreement on Partnership and Development (CAPD). With its focus on trade, development and home affairs, the agreement will not significantly change the nature of the relationship. It will, however, give a much-needed political push to EU-Afghan relations.If real change is to come, however, the EU will need to adopt a stricter and tougher approach. Future EU support should require a clear reaffirmation by the new government that Afghanistan wants a genuine and accountable partnership. The EU should continue to prod and pressure Afghanistan to meet its commitments under the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF) which includes pledges to undertake tax reform, respect human rights and the rights of women and promote the rule of law.The upcoming elections are important, but should be looked at as part of a long-term transition process. Afghanistan needs a new government – but above all it needs good governance.

Europe should focus on “Opportunity Africa” (Originally published 27/03/2014)

European and African leaders meeting in Brussels on April 2-3 must seal a new alliance for Africa’s socio-economic transformation. Africa and Europe are still important partners, with a relationship that has withstood the test of time. It’s time for a major rethink, however. “Opportunity Africa” must replace Europe’s still-jaundiced view of Africa as a problem.As the theme of the Africa-Europe summit underlines, Africa and Europe have to start Investing in People, Prosperity and Peace. Doing so requires a shift in mindsets away from government-focused policies to people-centred actions and from aid to trade, investments and business. It has long been said: the donor/recipient relationship needs to be replaced by an equal partnership. Rapidly-changing domestic, regional and global developments make such a relationship reboot even more imperative.To stay relevant in an era of volatile geo-politics, Africa-Europe relations will have to become more strategic, political and geared to tackling 21st Century challenges, including climate change, human trafficking and pandemics. For Europeans, it means jettisoning old stereotypes and fully embracing a new “Africa rising” narrative which reflects the continent’s changing realities. Access to Africa’s expanding markets and African raw materials will remain essential for European economic growth. But peace and stability in Africa are equally important for Europe’s prosperity.Africa too needs to revisit its views of Europe. Courted by an array of affluent and dynamic new aid partners, including China, Brazil and Turkey, Africa is no longer as reliant on European development assistance as in the past. It’s now European markets, know-how and technology as well as Europe’s experience in regional integration and preventive diplomacy which can help. Europe’s policies to tackle regional inequalities, build capacity and regulatory frameworks can also benefit African governments.Ascending AfricaAscending Africa is not merely a slogan. Across the continent, poverty levels are falling, incomes are rising and there have been improvements in education and health. African economies have flourished over the past decade, turning the region into a magnet for foreign investors. Regional growth is expected to rise to 6% this year from 5% in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), making Africa second only to developing Asia in pace of expansion. Inflation remains under control, having stabilised last year at 5.5%, compared with 47.4% 20 years ago.Despite short-term difficulties, internal dynamics which have boosted Africa's surge over the last decade are still in play, says AfDB President Donald Kaberuka. “The internal consumer power is still there, the booming urban populations are still there,” Kaberuka said recently, adding that information technology advances were still "leapfrogging" across the continent at a rapid pace, and more governments were managing their economies better.Celebrating Africa’s rise, however, does not mean ignoring its many challenges. Headline grabbing reports of high African growth rates, glittering cities and a thriving middle class tell only part of the story. To ensure a successful and sustained transformation of their economies, African countries must use the coming years to step up efforts to diversify their largely resource-based economies by investing in a modern and productive agriculture, building up a still-weak industrial base and encouraging entrepreneurship.Wanted: a transformational agendaWork on a new transformational agenda has started. “Agriculture should be an engine for industrialization on the continent,” African Union Commission Chairwoman Nkosazana Diamini-Zuma told a recent African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Better agriculture infrastructure and research to boost productivity and food security were important, she added. Progress on modernizing African farming is slow, however, with the ambitious Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) adopted by AU leaders in 2003 gaining only slow traction.There is a new focus on industrialization. Participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs), which allow developing countries to develop specific skills or products for participation in international production networks, is still low across the continent. As they develop new strategies to enable better access to global value chains, governments must also support private-sector development in manufacturing, encourage foreign investments and promote young entrepreneurs, especially by easing their access to finance and credit.Africa’s growing number of young people need jobs. With the population set to double from 1 billion to 2 billion over the next four decades, governments must ensure that the youth bulge – Africa has the youngest population in the world, with the number of Africans aged 15-24 set to double to 400 million by 2045 – is transformed into a true demographic dividend by providing employment and economic opportunities to young people. Failure to do so could lead to social unrest, political strife and a rise in extremism.Social inequalities remain a challenge. Tax Justice Network-Africa and Christian Aid warn that taxes in many African countries disadvantage the poor. Tax systems that could be used to redistribute wealth more fairly are being undermined by tax dodging and illicit finance flows facilitated by off-shore secrecy. Corruption has long been recognised as a major problem as has poor governance. Africa has a long way to go in building integrated regional markets and improving and building infrastructure, moves that will promote intra-African trade and investments.The establishment of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) is an important step forward in the continent’s long uphill struggle to establish peace and stability. The EU’s African Peace Facility is providing APSA with much-needed support but as the recent explosion of violence in the Central African Republic illustrates, ending strife in Africa still too often requires determined military intervention by AU and foreign troops.Africa-Europe: more important than ever The Africa-Europe summit can and should be an important milestone in changing the dynamics of a long-standing relationship. Africa and the EU have inter-acted since 1963 through the Yaounde Convention, the four Lome Conventions and the Cotonou Agreement signed in 2000 between the EU and the African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group. The first EU-Africa summit in 2000 put a stronger focus on Africa as a partner for Europe.The EU-Africa Strategic Partnership established in 2007 in Lisbon was expected to move the relationship to a new level, with both sides agreeing to pursue common interests and strategic objectives which went beyond the focus of traditional development policy and to forge a partnership of equals. However, the track record of the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES) which stands at the core of the partnership, is mixed, with neither side fully satisfied with the overall results. Europe’s negotiation of trade-focused Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with African states – a process that started over ten years ago – puts additional strain on relations.Africa-Europe ties are an important element in the growing network of alliances and coalitions which are emerging to tackle regional and global challenges. As they grapple with climate change, immigration, extremism and the task of ensuring equitable, sustained and inclusive growth, Africa and Europe have more to gain from their partnership than ever before. In a changing world, Africa-Europe ties are still relevant - but need careful nurturing.

In Central African Republic, European Defence Stutters (Originally published 21/03/2014, co-authored with John Pollock)

With the European Union focused on the crisis in Ukraine, plans to deploy an EU military force to help end ethnic violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) are looking decidedly uncertain. EU foreign ministers on March 17 underlined the “need to speed up work on the preparation” of the mission but with key equipment and personnel still lacking, the expected launch of the mission has now been set for late-April. Don’t hold your breath, however.The delay is tragic for CAR where the ethnic conflict has already claimed thousands of lives and EU troops are desperately needed to help African Union and French forces struggling to prevent a full-fledged civil war.It is also undeniably unfortunate for the EU’s much publicized hopes of establishing its credentials as an international security actor. France has justifiably accused its EU partners of not living up to their word and shirking responsibility for global security. General Philippe Ponties, head of the planned EU military operation in the CAR (EUFOR), says it is the political crisis in Ukraine which is distracting EU governments.Although France, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Portugal and Spain have agreed to contribute to the mission, Ponties has warned that the launch still needs logistical support of about 100 soldiers, ranging from medical to logistical needs. The EU plan agreed in January – following a United Nations Security Council resolution in December 2013 – calls for the dispatch of 800 to 1,000 soldiers to join 6,000 African and 2,000 French troops who are struggling to stop the ethnic cleansing of CAR’s Muslim population. The EU force would focus on providing security in the capital Bangui and at Bangui airport, where around 70,000 people who have fled the violence are living in dire conditions.It’s not just the crisis in Ukraine which is responsible for the EU’s slow response to the humanitarian tragedy in CAR. Undoubtedly, it is the ghosts of the last ten years that are haunting Europe’s response to the crisis. Since 1991, European nations have undertaken multiple interventions in the world’s trouble spots, with varying degrees of success. The last ten years in Afghanistan and especially Iraq have been a humbling and deeply disturbing experience, producing a reluctance to ever again send large, expeditionary forces overseas. As a result, in the streets of Bangui, the ghosts of Rwanda are coming face to face with the reality of the challenges in Afghanistan.The overthrow in March 2013 of President François Bozizé by majority Muslim Séléka militias was the catalyst for the recent wave of bloodshed in CAR. With the state increasingly fragmented and a cycle of violence developing, people’s identities increasingly came to be defined by ethnic and religious differences. By December last year, terms such as genocide were being used as Christian ‘anti-balaka’ militias, eager for payback following Bozizé’s ouster, ethnically cleansed the Muslim neighbourhoods in the capital of Bangui and in the wider countryside.The French-African Union intervention faltered not long after arriving. The limited force levels soon proved problematic, with foreign forces disarming militias where possible but unable to move into the countryside, where the greatest numbers of atrocities were occurring. The number of peacekeepers involved in Operation Sangaris is not enough to stabilise Bangui and the surrounding areas. Even before the intervention force arrived, 70,000 Muslim refugees had taken shelter in the French base at Bangui international airport, one million more were on the move internally and starvation threatened over half of CAR’s 4 million people.Thus almost twenty years after the international community’s failure in Rwanda and the Great Lakes, a small number of international peacekeepers are once again protecting limited safe areas, surrounded by escalating violence they cannot control, in a society at war with itself.In fact, EU battle groups which have been on standby since 2007, were created for such a circumstance, to deploy under a legal United Nations mandate to protect civilians and avert another humanitarian tragedy in the heart of Africa. The battle groups, however, are not being sent or even considered. This leads to the assumption that smaller, more targeted interventions, are likely to be the trend of future Western military operations. Clearly few in Europe or North America wish a repeat of the last decade when thousands of troops on the ground engaged an enemy that does not wear uniforms.The current climate is very different from the mood in the 1990s when arguments for humanitarian intervention were at their strongest and large Western-led multinational forces sought to help rebuild failed states. The moral certainty the West displayed in Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor and Sierra Leone has been replaced by a hard-learned realism and a hesitancy to place boots on the ground. In CAR, an increased EU security role beyond logistical support is unlikely and a major ground deployment is largely unthinkable.Europe will therefore very likely accept a far lighter military footprint and focus on financial and humanitarian efforts in countries like CAR. The EU has just agreed to give 81 million euros in humanitarian assistance to the country. Such assistance is vital. But as EU and African leaders are likely to underline at the EU-Africa Summit in Brussels, on April 2-3, the security situation in CAR means it will be difficult, if not impossible, to ensure the distribution of the aid. Past conflicts have also shown that providing humanitarian aid keeps refugees from starving, but does not halt ethnic cleansing.

ASEAN-EU: the challenge of connectivity (Originally published 25/02/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Southeast Asia’s ambitious plans to boost region-wide economic integration – and consolidate its position as a key transport, communication and tourism hub - hinge largely on forging stronger transport, regulatory and people-to-people links among the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) .The Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 is the region’s response to the challenge. With its focus on three dimensions – physical, institutional and people-to-people - the Master Plan underlines that while hard infrastructure is important, an enabling regulatory framework and a shared identity also play a crucial role in better connecting ASEAN countries with each other and with the rest of the world.The Master Plan is certainly impressive. The priority now is to turn it into reality.Certainly governments across the region are convinced of the economic, political and social importance of the initiative. As such, as the drive to establish an ASEAN Economic Community by end-2015 picks up speed, with countries working to achieve intra-regional free movement of goods, services, investment, and skilled labour, as well as a freer flow of capital, ASEAN’s connectivity agenda is a top priority.Implementing the Master Plan requires money, technical assistance and region-wide as well as global partnerships. Not surprisingly, connectivity is the buzzword in ASEAN’s recent dealings with key partners including China, Japan and the United States.The first ASEAN-EU Dialogue on Connectivity being held in Brussels this week makes the European Union an essential part of this important conversation. It also gives a further boost to already-expanding ASEAN-EU relations.With a population of approximately 600 million, a combined GDP of over $2 trillion, and still-impressive growth rates, ASEAN attracts global attention. The EU and ASEAN are major trading partners with over €200 billion of bilateral trade in goods and services. Recent years have seen a significant upgrading of relations between the two sides, with the adoption in 2012 of the Bandar Seri Begawan Plan of Action and the EU’s accession to the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - a non-aggression and cooperation pact between ASEAN members and their partners - paving the way for a broader and deeper relationship.Exchanging experienceThe EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity offers the two regional actors an important platform to exchange experiences and best practices. The EU’s vast experience in establishing a single market, building transport networks and connecting member states and regions is unique – and of great value to ASEAN. The Dialogue also offers opportunities for discussions on public and private financing for the Master Plan projects.The Dialogue on Connectivity follows the 21st meeting of the ASEAN-EU Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) held in January in Jakarta and the successful EU-ASEAN Aviation Summit in February in Singapore. An ASEAN-EU High Level Dialogue on Maritime Cooperation was also held in November 2013. The results of these encounters will feed into the ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting later this year.The EU is already working closely with ASEAN to spur connectivity through border management and higher education. The ASEAN-EU Border Management Project aims at improving cross-border facilitation and management to ease the movement of goods and people. An EU Support to Higher Education in ASEAN Region (EU SHARE) programme supports ASEAN institutions to develop regional higher education frameworks and aims to increase student mobility within ASEAN as well as to the EU. More than 4000 ASEAN students travel to Europe each year on EU scholarships.The ASEAN Regional Integration Support from the EU (ARISE) project, meanwhile, helps ASEAN’s economic integration drive while more generally, also helping to strengthen the operational capacity of the ASEAN Secretariat. Significant progress has also been made in the area of Information and communications technology (ICT).The week-long visit to Brussels will provide the ASEAN delegation with insight into many of the EU’s connectivity initiatives, with visits also planned to the Antwerp Port and the European Investment Bank. Meetings are also scheduled with European business representatives whose interest in ASEAN connectivity is on the rise.Public-Private PartnershipsASEAN’s focus on the role of public-private partnerships in implementing the Master Plan is strong, with the organisation’s Secretary General, Le Luong Minh, recently underlining the need to increase private sector investment in the region to address the massive financing requirements for ASEAN Connectivity projects.Through public-private partnerships, governments would be able to work with the private sector to close funding gaps and tap expertise to develop sustainable and high-quality infrastructure. As such, said Minh, more efforts are needed “to create a favourable environment for PPPs, which in turn, will support our ASEAN Connectivity agenda.”ASEAN’s many partners, including the EU are clearly banking on – and backing – sustained growth and development across the region. As Cesar V. Purisima, Finance Secretary of the Philippines, said in a recent speech at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore, “ASEAN is in the right place of the world for the next 30 to 50 years…If looked at as a single country, ASEAN will be among the top ten economies in terms of population, and probably among the youngest.”ASEAN cannot be faulted for its ambitious integration agenda and for making connectivity a top priority in its drive to set up an economic community. The way ahead will be challenging, however, as the region seeks to boost intra-regional trade, build modern and efficient infrastructure, harmonise different regulations and create bonds between its citizens.The participation of the private sector in meeting these and other goals will be crucial. As such, ASEAN must make it easier for businesses – national and foreign - to operate in the region. As Purisima pointed out, “Businesses will boom if ASEAN integrates successfully but this is not possible without their participation... That is the challenge for the private sector, to become a catalyst for integration itself.” The message is likely to be reiterated in Brussels.ASEAN members include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Just talk? Germany gets tough on defence (Originally published 11/02/2014)

You know that something new is afoot in Europe when Germany starts talking tough on defence.German President Joachim Gauck’s much-publicised call for his country to put aside World War II anxieties and play a bigger military role abroad has been hailed as a step in the right direction for a country which has spent its post-war years in an anti-military funk.Coming only a few weeks after EU leaders held their first discussion in five years on EU defence and security, Gauck’s comments have raised hopes of a new era of more pro-active and potent European defence at a time when increased violence and bloodshed in the Central African Republic and events in Mali are pushing the EU to step up its military presence in Africa in support of French and African Union troops.The German president’s appeal for Berlin’s re-engagement with Europe – as well as with NATO and the United States - on defence and security issues is music to the ears of its partners who, in recent years, have despaired of Germany’s reluctance to take a prominent, less risk-averse role in the EU’s so-far fairly modest military adventures.Change appears to be in the air – at least if some of Germany’s top political players are to be believed. Gauck suggested it was time that Germany stopped looking in the rear-view mirror of history. While there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness,” Gauck said at the recent Munich Security Conference, a yearly meeting of European and US security chiefs. “Restraint can be taken too far,” he warned.The German leader has an important ally in the country’s new defence minister, Ursula von der Leyen, who told the Munich meeting: “We are ready to support destruction of chemical agents from Syria. We are willing to reinforce our contribution to efforts in Mali and, if needed, to support the European mission in the Central African Republic.” Germany’s decision to become more engaged in Mali and in the Central African Republic was about European interests. “Should a large part of Africa become destabilised, it could have grave consequences for us,” von der Leyen said in an interview with Der Spiegel.The German defence minister has said she also favours more progress on forging a European defence identity. Joint armed forces would be “a logical consequence of increasingly close military cooperation in Europe” she told Der Spiegel recently. But in a reference to the long-standing German view that armies are deployed by parliament, not the executive, she cautioned: “European parliaments cannot be rendered powerless.” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s comments that Germany “is too big to only comment on world politics from the sidelines” are also in striking contrast to former German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle who opposed US intervention in Libya (which was backed by France and Britain).The rhetoric is impressive but is Germany really undergoing a serious change of heart on defence? Certainly, NATO, the US and the EU are hoping that in addition to the leading role it has assumed in the euro zone crisis, Berlin will shed past caution by adopting a more robust and less combat-shy stance on defence. Moving from words to action will not be easy, however. Gauck and von der Leyen may be hailed by Germany’s partners but German public opinion remains wary of embarking on foreign military missions. A recent poll by the German national TV station, ARD, said 61 percent of Germans do not want to send more soldiers abroad. While other surveys show public support for more engagement in humanitarian missions in Africa, a majority of Germans continue to oppose a bigger overseas military role.Significantly also, while von der Leyen and Gauck may have talked of increasing the number of soldiers abroad, in time-honoured German tradition, neither referred to the more significant question of whether they would be allowed to take a combat role.The 5,000 Germany personnel who currently take part in nine international missions, including more than 3,000 in Afghanistan, mostly work on training local security forces. In the French-led intervention in Mali, about 100 German military personnel provide support such as troop transport flights and training. And Germany has said it may again provide logistical support - but not firepower – in the upcoming European mission to the Central African Republic.Gauck’s message of commitment and global engagement may therefore be the first sign of new thinking in Berlin. While the conversation on a new German defence posture has started, however, no one should expect an overnight change.

Not yet a “pivot” - but EU-Asia relations get more active and intense (Originally published 30/10/2013)

It’s going to be a hectic and intense few weeks of EU-Asia interaction, as top EU officials hold a record-breaking number of meetings in November with leading policymakers in China, Japan, Indonesia and Myanmar. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy, will make her first-ever official visit to the Jakarta-based headquarters of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and, along with many of the EU’s 28 foreign ministers,to participate in an ASEM (Asia Europe) ministerial meeting in Delhi.

EU-Asia Agenda November 2013
Indonesia &ASEAN:	3rd - 4th	Ministerial Meeting
ASEM:Myanmar:	11th - 12th14th - 15th	Foreign Minister's MeetingEU-Myanmar Task Force
Japan:China:	19th21st	EU-Japan SummitEU-China Summit

The stepped-up activity comes at the end of a two-year period of enhanced EU-Asia engagement which some – a tad too ambitiously and prematurely – have described as the EU’s own “pivot” to Asia. Certainly, there is now a stronger EU-Asian conversation on trade, business, security and culture.  These more frequent contacts and strengthened sharing of views and opinions are welcome - and should continue.Developing a truly European strategy for sustained engagement with Asia, however, will require more than a few discussions, visits and communiques.  EU policymakers need to undertake a more in-depth reflection of Europe’s many interests, significant strengths and weaknesses in dealing with a more self-confident Asia.  Yes, there is a marked improvement in EU-Asia engagement-and this should be celebrated. But much still remains to be done.End of EU-Asian joustingYears of futile and tedious EU-Asian jousting over participation in meetings and mutual allegations of arrogance and indifference have not served either side well.  The Eurozone crisis and the compelling jobs and growth agenda shared by both Europe and Asia have spotlighted their economic interdependence.  The two regions also have common peace and security interests.  In addition, the demands of global governance require a strong EU-Asia dialogue.It is time the EU and Asia established a stronger and more sustainable multi-dimensional dialogue to deal with bilateral, regional and global challenges. The EU’s upcoming visits and meetings with Asian leaders should not, therefore, be seen as an end in themselves. But they are important steps in the construction of a fresh EU blueprint for a 21st Century partnership with Asia.Others are already trying – very hard.  US President Barack Obama may have been forced to stay in Washington because of the government “shutdown” in early October, but as Secretary of State John Kerry insisted at the APEC meeting in Bali, “nothing will diminish” America’s commitment to “rebalancing” towards Asia.   China’s new leaders, meanwhile, are wooing countries in the region with promises of “win-win” opportunities for more cooperation on trade and investments and a softly-softly approach on maritime disputes.Europe may not be able to match America’s military credentials and presence in Asia or China’s economic dominance.  But the EU can make a mark by implementing what Ashton sometimes describes as a “comprehensive approach” to engagement, including a variety of aid and trade tools, short and long-term actions, humanitarian and development instruments and experience-sharing on security, political questions and confidence-building.Below are some (distilled) recommendations on the way forward in EU-Asia relations.Indonesia: from PCA to strategic partnershipAshton’s first-ever official visit to Indonesia marks a long-awaited breakthrough in the EU’s hitherto largely underwhelming relationship with one of Asia’s most exciting rising powers.  The EU foreign policy chief should use her talks with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono  and Indonesia’s very active foreign minister Marty Natalegawa to make up for lost time by starting the ball rolling on a strategic partnership with Jakarta.  As a first step, now that the EU-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) of 2009 is almost-ratified (the European Parliament is expected to give the green light in December), the two sides should establish a more structured high-level relationship. European and Indonesian business leaders, meanwhile, are pressing for a rapid negotiation of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) which, according to participants at the fourth EU-Indonesia Business Dialogue Conference held recently in Jakarta, will improve market access, capacity building and the facilitation of trade and investment between the two sides.Indonesia and the EU should set up working groups to discuss mobility, the role of small and medium-sized enterprises as well as science and technology.  This would be in addition to existing discussions on trade and investments, air transport, fishing, development cooperation and education including links between European and Indonesia universities and the setting up EU studies curricula in Indonesian universities. Visa facilitation for Indonesian nationals will help to step up contacts between business leaders, academics and students.  To move the relationship forward, the EU must also keep in view the bigger picture of its trade and business interests in Indonesia.  European allegations of Indonesian protectionism and economic nationalism need to be clarified, especially in view of Jakarta’s arguments that many of the measures are designed to speed up economic development and add value to raw materials as well as Indonesia’s overall appetite for European exports including billions of euros worth of Airbus aircraft.

EU-Indonesia Trade
Imports:	€15,396 million	0.9% of EU Imports
Exports:	€9,648 million	0.6% of EU Exports
Trade:	bsp;€25,044 million

Source: EuropaASEAN: What a difference two years makeThere is no doubt: the last 24 months have seen an important and marked improvement in EU-ASEAN ties. Driven by changed circumstances internally, in their regions and beyond, the EU and ASEAN are taking a fresh, more realistic and less emotional view of each other.  These new approaches, aided by the political reform underway in Myanmar and the lifting of EU sanctions against the country, are evident in multiple interactions between EU and ASEAN ministers and senior officials including at meetings of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the EU’s accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, Southeast Asia’s prime security blueprint, and the multi-dimensional EU-ASEAN Plan of Action adopted in Brunei in April last year. Certainly, ASEAN’s new and dominant narrative of speeded-up integration and the grouping’s central role in the array of free trade initiatives in the region are prompting the EU to review its perceptions of ASEAN as an ineffective organisation.  In addition, given their economic interests in the region, France, Germany and Britain have emerged as pivotal drivers of rising EU engagement with ASEAN.  Increased wariness of China’s more assertive posture in the region, especially as regards conflicting territorial claims in the South China Seas have increased Europe’s awareness of its strategic interest in maintaining (maritime) security in the region.ASEAN is also taking a fresh look at the EU.  As ASEAN steps up its economic integration agenda, the EU is once again viewed positively by many in the region as a source of experience, technical expertise and transfer of technology. EU investments are being sought for ASEAN’s ambitious connectivity plans. Significantly, the adoption of the ASEAN Charter in 2008 with its references to human rights and building a “people-centered” ASEAN and the setting up of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) have removed some of the earlier EU-ASEAN friction over these questions and prompted a palpable toning down of the EU’s prescriptive rhetoric on integration and human rights.  More needs to be done, however.  The EU and ASEAN must recognise each other as strategic partners, hold regular summit meetings and like the US, Japan, China, Australia and India, the EU must lose no additional time in appointing a special ambassador accredited to ASEAN.  In addition to bilateral free trade agreements between the EU and ASEAN states, the now-abandoned plan to negotiate an ambitious region-to-region EU-ASEAN free trade deal should be revived.  This could balance Asian free trade initiatives such as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking all leading economies in the region.

EU-ASEAN Trade
Imports:	€100,035 million	5.6% of EU Imports
Exports:	€813,244 million	8.1% of EU Exports
Trade:	€181,360 million

Source: EuropaASEM: Renewal and reformLaunched in Bangkok in 1996 to foster stronger EU-Asia relations – and closer personal relations between EU and Asian leaders – the process of Asia Europe Meetings (ASEM), with its 51 partners, remains an important channel of region-to-region communication – albeit one in dire need of renewal and reform. Interestingly, recent reflection on restoring ASEM’s credibility and relevance has focused on going back to the original informality and flexibility of the forum and a better utilisation of the immense Asia-Europe networking opportunities it offers, including as regards bilateral contacts between leaders and officials of both sides.Yet ASEM meetings over the years have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.  As ASEM participants prepare to celebrate 20 years of their partnership in 2016, the aim must be to recover ASEM’s initial focus on substance over protocol and ritual.The meeting of ASEM foreign ministers that Ashton and EU foreign ministers will attend in Delhi on November 11-12 is expected to endorse a number of changes which many hope will inject new life into the Asia-Europe partnership by streamlining and simplifying ASEM working methods to ensure that leaders and foreign ministers engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.As such, when they meet in Delhi in November, in addition to attending 2 official plenary sessions, foreign ministers will engage in a “retreat” to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue.  Discussions in the plenaries will focus on sustainable economic growth and development and on non-traditional security issues, including food, energy and water security, cyber security and counter-terrorism.  The “retreat” will look at international and regional flashpoints including the Middle East, North Korea and Iran. Efforts are being made to ensure that chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings are short, simple and to-the-point. There are also demands for a stronger focus on the economic “pillar” of ASEM and a resumption of regular meetings between economic experts, policymakers and business leaders from both sides.  Senior ASEM economic officials have not met since a gathering in Rotterdam in 2006. Several Asian and European governments believe these contacts should be revived ahead of the ASEM summit to be held in Milan in autumn 2014.

EU-ASEM Trade
Imports:	€533,060 million	29.8% of EU Imports
Exports:	€361,459 million	21.4% of EU Exports
Trade:	€894,519 million

Source: EuropaMyanmar: EU Task Force mixes political and economic support   Relations between the EU and Myanmar have been improving rapidly following the process of political reform started in 2011 and the lifting of EU sanctions last year.  Following President Thein Sein’s trip to Brussels earlier this year, the EU has taken the unusual but interesting step of organising a so-called “Task Force” meeting of political and business leaders in Myanmar on 14 and 15 November  to discuss ways of supporting and fostering the country’s transition process.  The plan is to mobilise the full range of EU resources – in both the public and private sectors – to help speed up Myanmar’s economic development and encourage further political change in the once-isolated nation.  The EU initiative reflects just how far Myanmar has travelled in the last few years as it switches from life under a harsh military regime to a country which is universally feted for its embrace of civilian rule and continuing efforts at political reconciliation and economic reform.  In a striking symbol of on-going international rehabilitation and economic integration within the region, Myanmar will take over as chair of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2014, thereby playing a crucial role in preparations for creating an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015.EU support for Myanmar’s remarkable transition must not be unconditional, however. The country faces numerous complex challenges in its progress towards democracy, economic development, human rights, and peace and national reconciliation. Decades of economic mismanagement and isolation have led to deep-rooted structural poverty. Economic growth is narrowly based on extractive industries. Unemployment remains high and GDP per capita is the lowest in  Southeast Asia. Most importantly, ethnic reconciliation remains difficult, with President Thein Sein struggling to maintain order as deep-rooted tensions that were largely contained under the army's strict rule boil over in different parts of the country.  Human Rights Watch accuses the Myanmar authorities and members of Arakanese groups of committing crimes against humanity in a campaign of ethnic cleansing against Rohingya and other Muslims. In a resolution adopted in June, the European Parliament has said the government must take urgent action to end all forms of persecution and violence against the Rohingya Muslims, ease their humanitarian situation and protect them from violence and public incitements to religious hostility. The EU assembly also insisted the government draw up an action plan to address the root cause of the discrimination and undertake an urgent review of a 1982 Citizenship Law with a view to granting citizenship to the Rohingya.

EU-Myanmar Trade
Imports:	€164 million	0.0% of EU Imports
Exports:	€232 million	0.0% of EU Exports
Trade:	€369 million

Source: EuropaJapan: moving relations up a gear It took almost two years of consultations, but in April this year Japan and the EU finally launched the first round of official negotiations on an Economic Partnership Agreement. If negotiations are successful, the deal will boost the bilateral trade and investment relationship, have a wider positive impact on their respective economies and – importantly - also bolster political relations between the two sides.  Initial estimates speak of a boost to Europe’s GDP of approximately 0.7% and the creation of 400.000 jobs, while Japanese exports to the EU could increase by as much as 23.5%.  The negotiations address a number of EU concerns, including non-tariff barriers and the further opening of the Japanese public procurement market to ensure a progressive and reciprocal liberalisation of trade in goods, services and investment, as well as rules on trade-related issues.The latest round of talks held in Brussels in October will be followed by an EU-Japan summit in Tokyo on November 19.  Indeed, the EU and Japan need to establish a grand vision for a future strategic partnership which goes beyond trade and economics to include joint endeavours to tackle non-traditional security challenges. In Tokyo earlier this month, Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida  and Ashton agreed that Japan and EU must work together in coping with East Asian and Middle East affairs, including Afghanistan and the Iranian nuclear issue.  Japan has said it sees the EU as a “super soft power” and believes there is room for enhanced EU-Japan cooperation in areas like disaster and crisis management, cyber security, counter-terrorism, combating pandemics and other global challenges. The EU with its commitment to democracy, human rights, the rule of law and the market economy is a “value promoter” and an important global player and partner for Japan, according to Tokyo.

EU-Japan Trade
Imports:	€63,813million	3.6% of EU Imports
Exports:	€55,490million	3.3% of EU Exports
Trade:	€119,303million

Source: EuropaChina: The next ten years As China and the EU embark on a second decade of their strategic partnership, both sides have to reflect on the future course of their often volatile relationship.  Recently, ties have been soured by the trade dispute over solar panels, the role of Chinese state-owned enterprises and EU businesses’ repeated claims that Beijing is discriminating against foreign investors. China is also uneasy about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), viewing it as an US-EU attempt to “encircle” and contain China while the EU frets over China’s “special relationship” with Germany and Central and Eastern European countries.  In contrast, 2012 was a relatively good year for EU-China relations, with both sides launching a partnership for sustainable urbanization, establishing high-level people-to-people discussions and agreeing to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty to boost two-way investment flows.  The organisation of the EU-China summit on November 20 and the High-level Economic Dialogue held in Brussels recently give hope that EU-China relations are moving into a new, more stable and less-crisis prone phase of practical and pragmatic cooperation. Green growth and urbanisation have been identified as areas of particular interest to both sides.The EU is pressing China to adapt its growth model from being investment driven, and rather resource and capital intensive, to one that is based more on rising consumer demand, with a higher quality of investment and growth.  EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht is insisting, meanwhile, on clinching an EU-China investment agreement which will improve the protection of EU investments in China as well as Chinese investments in Europe by ensuring legal certainty and predictability for investors.  Europe also wants the agreement to cover improved access to the Chinese market for European investors through a reduction of barriers.  De Gucht has also said he hopes China will work for the success of the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali by agreeing to a deal on 'trade facilitation'.  The EU-China summit on November 21 in Beijing should reach a wider understanding that on putting their relations on a stronger, more stable and less volatile footing.  This requires a greater and sustained focus on improving mutual understanding and efforts to look beyond immediate problems to the longer-term compelling necessity to work together to tackle domestic and global challenges. Such a rethink demands a shift away from fragmented policy responses to a more coherent and multi-sector method of dealing with each other in order to forge a new 21st Century partnership based on mutual trust and respect. A focus on practical cooperation, including ways in which the EU can help Chinese leaders to achieve the “China Dream” is also required.

EU-China Trade
Imports:	€289,915 million	3.6% of EU Imports
Exports:	€55,490million	3.3% of EU Exports
Trade:	€119,303million

Source: EuropaConclusionThe EU’s active engagement with Asia over the last two years and the upcoming array of meetings with key Asian players mark an important and qualitative leap forward in relations between the two regions.  The new momentum in relations must continue, with the EU using its high-level conversations with Asian governments and with its own member states – and civil society representatives - to hammer out a new strategy for making a unique European contribution to the Asian Century, in all its economic, political, security and cultural facets.

Aung San Suu Kyi must help end Buddhist-Muslim violence (Originally published 04/10/2013, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Myanmar opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s presence in Strasbourg to receive the European Parliament’s Sakharov Prize is a potent reminder of just how far the Nobel laureate and her once-pariah nation have travelled in the last few years.The fact that she can finally go to Strasbourg to pick up the prestigious prize, awarded 23 years ago, is cause for celebration.  So too is Myanmar’s remarkable peaceful transition from military to civilian rule.But even as they lay out the red carpet for the leader of the National League for Democracy, members of the European Parliament and EU policymakers must step up pressure for political and economic reform in the country – and urge Suu Kyi to take a stronger stance on ending the rising violence and discrimination against the Rohingya people.Myanmar has certainly come a long way in the last few years. Once an isolated nation under a harsh military junta, the country is now universally feted for its embrace of civilian rule and continuing efforts at political reconciliation and economic reform. Investments are booming.In a striking symbol of on-going international rehabilitation and economic integration within the region, Myanmar will take over as chair of the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2014, thereby playing a crucial role in preparations for creating an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015.Suu Kyi’s fortunes have also changed.  Released from years of house arrest in November 2010, The NLD leader remains the country’s most popular politician.  After having spearheaded her party’s entry into the Myanmar parliament in 2012, she is now head of the "Rule of Law and Tranquillity Committee” in the Lower House.With an eye on the presidency after general elections in 2015, she is now in full campaign mode, telling investors, officials and reporters in Singapore recently that the NLD is the “most effective political party” in the country and reiterating calls for changes in the constitution which currently bars those with foreign-born family members of becoming head of state. The NLD also says the constitution is undemocratic because it gives the military a substantial percentage of parliamentary seats.Myanmar’s transformation is impressive. But neither Myanmar, nor Suu Kyi can afford to rest on their laurels.The Nobel laureate’s standing as a defender of democracy and human rights and Myanmar’s reputation as an emerging Southeast Asian tiger are conditional on their response to several challenges facing the country.  Above all, they must take urgent action to stop rising inter-communal violence between majority Buddhists and minority Muslims (who make up 4 per cent of the population).Buddhist Muslim violence The bloodshed which continues to rack Rakhine State is spreading to other parts of the country with Muslim communities.  Since June last year, the clashes are reported to have killed at least 237 people.  According to the International Crisis Group, the violence has regional implications given the sharp increase in the number of Rohingya Muslims making the treacherous journey by boat from Rakhine State to other countries in the region.Intercommunal tensions have also spilled over Myanmar’s borders with the murder of Myanmar Buddhists in Malaysia and related violence in other countries. There have also been threats of jihad against Myanmar and plots and attacks against Myanmar or Buddhist targets in the region, the ICG warns.Human Rights Watch accuses the Myanmar authorities and members of Arakanese groups of committing crimes against humanity in a campaign of ethnic cleansing against Rohingya and other Muslims. “The government needs to put an immediate stop to the abuses and hold the perpetrators accountable or it will be responsible for further violence against ethnic and religious minorities in the country,” says Phil Robertson deputy Asia director.President Thein Sein has struggled to maintain order as deep-rooted tensions that were largely contained under the army's strict rule boil over in different parts of the country. In a recent first visit to Rakhine since taking office, the president urged the public not to incite violence, saying: "Just military and police control is not enough. These burnings, killings and violence will cease only when you yourselves play a part in controlling this."The European Parliament is clear about the way ahead. In a resolution adopted in June, it said the government must take urgent action to end all forms of persecution and violence against the Rohingya Muslims, ease their humanitarian situation and protect them from violence and public incitements to religious hostility. The EU assembly also insisted the government draw up an action plan to address the root cause of the discrimination and undertake an urgent review of a 1982 Citizenship Law with a view to granting citizenship to the Rohingya.All eyes are now on Suu Kyi who has so far steered clear of a direct condemnation of the Buddhist-Muslim violence. In Singapore recently, she admitted that the current stalemate in resolving protracted insurgencies, inter-ethnic conflicts and lack of robust laws posed the biggest challenges to development in Myanmar.  Asked about the inter-communal violence, Suu Kyi insisted on the need to respect the rule of law, saying the international community could help by “giving us your understanding (and) by trying to go deeper into the reasons why communal conflicts have been taking place.”“Please study the situation in depth, please don't take a superficial look at it, and try to condemn one community or another,” she said.Call it realpolitikCelebrated as an icon for democracy while she was under house arrest, Suu Kyi has spent the last few years collecting a host of much-deserved international awards and accolades. She is now entering the more difficult world of realpolitik and as a politician with presidential ambitions she is understandably reluctant to lose public support.  While she sits on the fence, however, her international standing is at stake.“Times have changed,” says Derek Tonkin, Chairman of Network Myanmar. While she is still influential, Suu Kyi’s reluctance to comment directly on the resumption in mid-2011 of fighting in Kachin State and on the repressive action against the Muslim Rohingya people in Rakhine possibly reflects concerns that too vocal criticism of State actions might lessen her personal support among the Burman majority population, he says.However, Tonkin correctly underlines that such calculations are “surely not appropriate for a Sakharov Prize Winner, for personal interest should play no part” – although it could be argued that her election to the presidency might bring more rapid reform and greater democratic freedoms.Having visited Myanmar recently, Barbara Lochbihler MEP, Member of the Green Group and Chair of the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights, warns that the inter-communal violence is being stirred by hate-mongers, including some Buddhist monks. “The state could react immediately to this violence if they wished. Hate speech is something that must be controlled,” she insists.Recognising the Rohingyas as citizens is central, says Lochbihler, pointing out that illegal people everywhere face exploitation. “The Rohingyas are stateless and they are also extremely poor,” she says, noting that the President’s appeals for an end to violence need to be urgently implemented on the ground. Changing mindsets will be crucial since even senior politicians believe that outsiders are wrong in demanding that the Rohingyas should become citizens because “they are not Burmese, they are just creating problems and should go back home… others say they are infiltrated by radical Muslims to take our land,” said Lochbihler.  “I think they have underestimated how the international community looks at such brutal attacks.”The international community does care, however. Violence in the country deters potential investors, making them more wary of putting their money in a country facing political uncertainty. What happens in Myanmar also has deep repercussions on relations between Buddhists and Muslims in the rest of South and Southeast Asia.The accolades Suu Kyi receives in Strasbourg will be well-merited. She is receiving the Sakharov Prize for her role in standing up to the military junta. As a strong, brave and remarkable woman, she certainly deserves it.However, as Myanmar marches towards new horizons, it is important that the Nobel laureate and peace advocate adds her voice to calls for inter-communal reconciliation, ethnic harmony and an end to violence.

Fashioning "Global Europe" for the 21st Century (Originally published 01/10/13)

It’s not enough to talk about the European Union's standing and influence in today’s rapidly changing world: the EU needs to thrash out a new foreign policy adapted and responsive to 21st century challenges.This is urgent.  True, EU leaders, foreign ministers and senior official often engage in bouts of hand-wringing over Europe’s “loss of influence” and declining presence on the global stage.  This is often followed by a resounding thumping of chests as everyone agrees that Europe is – after all – still an important and relevant international player.  It’s not that simple, however.Europe certainly has much to offer. The EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe.  European technology helps the world tackle climate change, urbanisation and other 21st-century challenges, European design excites fashionistas the world over and tourists flock to European cities to enjoy good food, wine and visit exquisite monuments.Europe’s ‘soft power’ resonates when it comes to peace-making and reconciliation, trade, aid and the promotion of democracy and the rule of law.  With Croatia now in and others lining up to join, the EU retains its zone of influence in the neighbourhood.  And as the Eurozone crisis gives way to recovery, however fragile, global concerns about Europe’s economic performance are easing.And yet.  There is no doubt that the EU’s star does not shine as brightly as it should in many skies.  EU-watchers who once – too optimistically – believed that the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service would lead to a more forceful EU foreign policy are disappointed.Their disappointment is even stronger when it comes to European security and defence policy.  Many believe that because it has no army, navy or air force at its command, the EU will always be a second class international actor, handing out cheques but not pro-actively influencing global events and decisions.No appetite for military actionEurope’s partners know that while governments in France and Britain may still have an appetite for military interventions in response to international crisis, their citizens – and Europeans more generally – certainly don’t. Significantly, Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy and an industrial machine that’s the envy of the planet, has made clear that it is not overly interested in taking on global responsibilities of the military kind.Germany is viewed by many as a reluctant giant which, as one newspaper recently put it, seems content to lurk in the shadows. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying that Europe must become more competitive as China and other powers rise. “The world doesn’t sleep,” she said recently. However, she hasn’t coupled that with any grand visions for a continental revival.Within Europe, the doomsayers — of which there are many — insist that the Eurozone crisis and the impact of economic stagnation on European societies have accelerated the loss of EU influence in the international arena.China, India, Russia, Brazil and others are often seen in the EU as fierce rivals who want a ‘full-scale reversal’ of their relationship with the West by demanding better representation in multilateral fora and a stronger voice in global governance. Others argue that Europe should be more assertive and more self-confident when dealing with the cheeky new kids on the bloc.It was partly to respond to such concerns that the EEAS was set up three years ago to act as an EU foreign ministry — and certainly the EU flag is now more often seen flying across the world. But in today’s competitive world of rising powers, new alliances and increased geo-strategic competition, the EEAS is still seen as under-performing.Much of the criticism is levelled at Catherine Ashton, the head of the EEAS and the EU’s de facto foreign minister. It has to be said, however, that Ashton’s role is a difficult one and constrained by the limited space she is allowed by some of the EU’s bigger member states, including Britain and France.Pressure for a more effective foreign policyThe good news is that some EU countries want to go further. The foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden argued recently that Europe needs a strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world. The famous question posed by Henry Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state, about the dialling code for Europe has, by now, by and large been answered, the ministers said.“The critical question is no longer how to reach us, but instead what Europe should say when the phone rings,” they complained, adding: “we now have the hardware of institutions in place, we need to focus on the software of policies that makes the entire thing operate in a clear and credible way.”

The ministers are right: Europe needs a new strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world than the one that existed in 2003, when Javier Solana, the former EU “high representative” for foreign and security policy, drew up the first-ever EU strategy for living in a globalised world.

Such a new blueprint for “global Europe” need not be long and complicated.  It needs to start by recognising that the world has changed dramatically in the last decade - and include recommendations for a few pivotal changes in policies and attitudes.

While the 2003 document centred on traditional security threats, the focus should now shift to  non-traditional challenges – climate change, energy and food security, maritime piracy, cyber security - which must be tackled urgently.

The EU has strong expertise and experience in all these areas.  But concerted international action on these and other issues requires that countries and organisations build new networks and alliances.  It means working with like-minded nations but above all also cooperating with non-like minded countries.  It means talking with others, not haranguing or talking down to them.  And this means a change of EU diplomatic tone and style.

Respect for emerging powers

Global competition for influence has increased as China, Russia, India and Brazil become more assertive and more vocal on the global stage.  The EU may have “strategic partnerships” with these countries, but the agreements need to be reinforced and strengthened – and the EU has to learn to treat these nations with respect and use their insight to readjust its worldview.

Working only with the big guys of the emerging world is not enough.  The new world order is being fashioned not just by China and Brazil but also by countries like Indonesia and Mexico, Kenya, Australia and organisations such as ASEAN.  The EU  needs urgently to upgrade its ties with these nations and bring them on board as  partners.

The compelling need for better global governance in today's still-chaotic multipolar world demands such cooperation.

Relations with Turkey are an albatross around the EU's neck.  They need to be repaired urgently in order to allow for real consultation on regional and global flash-points.  Europe's relations with Turkey are under close scrutiny the world over, with people questioning just why the EU remains so reluctant to open its doors to such an important regional and international actor.  The answers are not edifying.

The EU's international and moral standing are conditional on its ability to build an inclusive society which celebrates diversity instead of fearing it.  Europe cannot condemn discrimination against minorities in Pakistan and Myanmar if its own track record in dealing with such issues is not above reproach.

Democracy and human rights

Europe's values - democracy, the rule of law, human rights (to name a few) - are important and should be promoted more actively across the globe.  But those doing the promotion should do so with sensitivity and humility.  The message is too important to be drowned out by arrogance.

While often irked by EU hectoring and lecturing on human rights, many countries are anxious to learn more from Europe about regional integration, reconciliation and reform.  Europe's "soft power" lies in its ability to teach an anxious world about conflict management and peace-building.

The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who have warned that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Ironicially while the new world order demands the establishment of networks and coalitions, the EU will become a more significant power if it builds on its uniqueness as a foreign policy actor.  As such, while the transatlantic relationship is vital and important, hanging on to US coat-tails, especially when it comes to Asia, is not a good option.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership certainly has its value in terms of jobs and growth on both sides of the Atlantic but it would be unfortunate if it is seen as the West "ganging up" against the rest.  For the moment, that is how China and other Asians see it.  The EU should act urgently to correct that impression - and invest more in the outcome of the Bali ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation in December.

Civil society actorsForeign policy today is not just the exclusive preserve of diplomats. Civil society actors, social media, sports personalities, artists, academics and think tanks are now an essential part of the game.  The EU's new global outreach must include such thought-leaders.  As the Arab Spring has shown, dealing only with governments is no longer an option.As Javier Solana, the EU’s former ‘high representative’ for foreign and security policy said recently, in today’s world of flux, the nature of power is changing. Power was once measured in the size of armies and population, not in terms of GDP per capita, reputation and whether you get to host the Olympic Games.  It is also about ideas, innovation, art and culture.It is worth remembering that while military force and interventions can provoke regime change, in the end, all parties — the victorious and the defeated — have to come to the negotiating table and find political solutions. And this is something the EU and Europeans are very good at.It is often argued that further EU integration will lead to a united, coherent, and effective European foreign policy. This is true of course.  But the integration process remains slow and painful.  The need for a smarter and more forceful EU foreign policy is urgent.

Renewing ASEM ahead of 2014 summit (Originally published 25/09/13)

Most multilateral organisations face the daunting task of adapting to new 21st century economic, political and social realities.Set up in the aftermath of World War II, global institutions at the core of the international system, such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are under pressure to respond to the rise of the world’s emerging powers.The G20, which brings together industrialised countries and the world’s leading rising powers - including China, India and Brazil - was created in 1999 to complement the more restricted G8 composed of traditional industrialised powers. Demands for more effective governance now also beset the G20.Not surprisingly, renewal and reform are also the name of the game for ASEM, the Asia-Europe partnership launched in Bangkok in March 1996 to build stronger region-to-region ties.ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), with its 51 partners, is an important multilateral platform for Asia-Europe contacts which allows the two regions to interact in myriad ways.Trade and investment flows are booming, the two regions share concerns about regional and global peace and security and meet regularly within the ASEM framework to discuss issues as varied as urbanisation, river basin management, food security and education.But there is no doubt: ASEM must adapt to the changing landscape in both Asia and Europe if it is to remain credible and relevant.Interestingly, that means going back to the original informality and flexibility of ASEM and the immense Asia-Europe networking opportunities it offers.On the plus side, ASEM includes five of the European Union’s strategic partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia - and four of the UN Security Council’s permanent members – China, Russia, Britain and France.The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding members in 1996 – is a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour. Once inside the partnership, European and Asian countries of all sizes interact with each other on an equal footing.The forum also provides a platform for ample bilateral contacts between leaders and officials of both sides.Yet, the need for renewal is pressing.  ASEM meetings over the years have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions.The progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms.The consensus is that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.Ironically this could be achieved by taking ASEM “back to the future” and rediscovering the initial rationale behind the partnership. The aim is to recover ASEM’s initial focus on substance over protocol and ritual.Efforts to make ASEM more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities – have dominated deliberations for the last few years.Progress on revitalising ASEM is gaining momentum in the run-up to the ASEM summit hosted by the EU and set to be held in Milan, Italy, in autumn 2014.ASEM foreign ministers meeting in Delhi on November 11-12 are expected to endorse a number of changes which many hope will inject new life into the Asia-Europe partnership.Asian and European policymakers have agreed to streamline and simplify ASEM working methods to ensure that ASEM foreign ministers and leaders engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.As such, when they meet in Delhi in November, in addition to attending 2 official plenary sessions, ASEM foreign ministers will engage in a “retreat” to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue.Discussions in the plenaries will focus on sustainable economic growth and development and on non-traditional security issues, including issues such as food, energy and water security, cyber security and counter-terrorism.The “retreat” will look at international and regional flashpoints including the Middle East, North Korea and Iran.Efforts are being made to ensure that chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings are short, simple and to-the-point.Based on existing mechanisms, there is now agreement to work on cooperation projects which are even more visible and tangible for benefit of Asia and Europe.Following the recent membership of Norway, Switzerland and Bangladesh, ASEM expansion is expected to continue as Croatia, which became the 28th member state of the EU on July 1 2013, formally joins ASEM next year.ASEM partners also face the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership, especially in the run up to the summit in 2014 and two years later when ASEM celebrates its 20th anniversary.If ASEM reform is implemented as planned, 2016 could become an important milestone in a reinvigorated Asia-Europe partnership, a must in the 21st century.

Australia under Abbott to stay engaged in Asia (Originally published 09/09/13)

Tony Abbott is set to be sworn in as Australia’s new conservative prime minister this week, replacing outgoing Labor leader Kevin Rudd and ending six years of Labor party rule.Following a landslide victory on September 7, the PM elect has already said his top priorities are to abolish Australia’s carbon emissions tax and to stop asylum-seekers arriving by boat.Significantly, he has also made clear that Australia will maintain strong links with its Asia Pacific neighbours, with an emphasis on China and Indonesia.As the last elections have illustrated, Australian politics are dramatic, passionate and almost Shakespearian in the endless narrative of unexpected betrayal, ruthlessness, revenge and the search for redemption.The run-up to the polls was dominated by the battle between Abbott and Rudd but also by the even tougher and continuing saga of hate and revenge between Rudd and Julia Gillard, the former Labor prime minister who Rudd unceremoniously — and very dramatically — kicked out of office in June this year.Not many tears were shed for Gillard since she had played a similar dirty trick on Rudd in June 2010. Australian politics, it can be said, leave Bollywood drama in the shade.Australia has come a long way in the last few years.  Although the Australian economy may not be growing as it fast as it did in recent years, its steady 2.6 percent GDP growth rates for the year are still higher than for any other developed nation.The country’s economic performance is certainly a far cry from the 1980s when Lee Kuan Yew, the outspoken former prime minister of Singapore, warned that the country was living way beyond its means and in danger of becoming the “poor white trash” of Asia.Gone also are the days when Malaysia’s former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad refused to accept Australian membership of Asian groupings because, as he insisted "they are Europeans, they cannot be Asians".The feisty Malaysian leader may not have changed his mind, but his successors certainly have – as have all other Asian countries, including China.Australia’s tough line on asylum seekers and refugees creates unease in Asia. As Jane McAdam of the University of New South Wales says many of the country’s’ initiatives including the mandatory detention for all unlawful arrivals, the excision of the whole Australian mainland from Australia's "migration zone, the removal of boat arrivals to offshore processing centers in small Pacific island countries, with no prospect for resettlement in Australia, are against the spirit of international law.And as she points out, such measures are surprising in a country as wealthy, multicultural and big as Australia. But there is more to the country that muddled asylum policies.Over recent years Australia has impressed by making a determined bid to become serious players in the Asia-Pacific– or the Indo-Pacific as the Australians describe the region. Analysts say Australia is pulling its weight as a global middle power and also a Southern Hemisphere power.As Benjamin Reilly of Murdoch University underlines, “While engagement with East Asia and the United States remains the main game, Australian ‘soft power’ is increasing across the globe’s southern segment in a range of areas, from aid and trade to scientific research to peacekeeping.”Significantly, the G20 summit in 2014 will be held in Brisbane.  In Brussels, Australia has stalwartly pushed for stronger European Union engagement with Asia.Australia along with New Zealand joined the Asia Europe Meetings (ASEM) in 2010, many years after their application. Their membership has certainly helped to increase the credibility of ASEM and bring new perspectives into the club.In recent months, Australia has published a voluminous white paper on its Asian connections, urging students to learn more Asian languages, including of course Chinese.Relations with China may be volatile but exports of raw materials to the country have kept the Australian economy on an even keel.Not surprisingly, Abbott has said his first travel priorities would be Indonesia, China, Japan and South Korea, rather than traditional and long-standing allies like the United States and Britain.“Only after our regional and trading partners have been suitably attended to would I make the traditional trips to Washington and London,” he said, adding: “Decisions which impact on our national interests will be made in Jakarta, in Beijing, in Tokyo, in Seoul, as much as they will be made in Washington.