Taking EU-India relations beyond trade (Originally published 08/02/12)

Negotiations on a first-ever EU-India free trade agreement are injecting much-needed excitement into Europe’s relationship with India.Despite earlier hopes, the trade deal will not be signed at the 12th EU-India summit in Delhi on February 10th. But the buzz generated by the negotiations as they enter a critical final stage is helping to lift Europe’s profile in a country which has so far kept the EU at a polite arms length.Significantly the trade talks, now into their fifth year, have helped to focus official and public attention in India on the EU – rather than individual European member states - as a global economic player.The challenge facing European policymakers is to use the shift from indifference to interest in EU-India relations to reinforce the still largely underdeveloped conversation with Delhi on non-trade questions.The change of mood is recent - but palpable on both sides. Senior Indian officials now describe the EU as a “key strategic partner”. Catherine Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy was recently in Delhi for a groundbreaking foreign policy dialogue with her Indian counterpart.With EU-India trade currently estimated at a mere 86 billion euros a year (compared to almost 400 billion euros annually with China), the free trade pact under negotiation – officially called a “Bilateral Investment and Trade Agreement” - is a good step forward in building stronger ties and increasing mutual understanding.The ongoing trade negotiations, while problematic on some key issues, have meant more regular contacts between Indian and European officials – and a clearer European understanding of the complexities of India.This is cause for some celebration. For all the talk of India’s rise and the country’s growing global clout as a member of the G20, the EU has not devoted adequate time or effort to clarify its strategic objectives and interests in the country. As such the EU-India “strategic partnership”, launched in 2004, has remained under-exploited.In part, this is the result of India’s complex landscape. According to some forecasts, the country is set to overtake China as the world’s fastest growing economic by 2050. The Asian Development Bank reckons that India’s 350 million strong middle class could grow to 1 billion in 2025. But India also has one third of the world’s poor. A major effort is therefore necessary if India is to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen points out, “India has started falling behind every other South Asian country (with the partial exception of Pakistan) in terms of social indicators, even as it is doing so well in terms of per capita income.” The Indian government is paying greater attention to making development more inclusive and achieving a substantial reduction in poverty. The national focus is also on structural reforms, including better governance – especially following the Anna Hazare anti-corruption campaign in the wake of key graft scandals - and improved infrastructure. But more remains to be done.India and Europe share common values such as democracy and a preference for multilateralism. They also have common goals as regards good governance, achieving MDGs and working for global peace and stability. But the partnership is made more difficult because of divergent interests. Crucially there are different interpretations of what a strategic partnership is supposed to achieve.The EU sees it as a partnership to achieve global public goods by meeting 21st century challenges, including terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, state failure and regional conflicts. India views its strategic partnerships with the EU and the US as a vehicle for ensuring greater worldwide prestige and political clout.There is also an inevitable dissonance between the EU as a status quo power which is often reluctant to make room for newcomers and India which is seeking great power status. The accusation is that the EU speaks the language of inclusiveness but unwilling to cede its seats and voting rights.This time, however, Europeans want to do more than talk trade with India. While in Delhi, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will try and convince their host Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to join the international sanctions regime against Iran.The EU says it is disappointed that India has not joined the large international consensus against Iran’s nuclear programme. India, however, is heavily dependent on Iranian oil to meet its growing energy needs.Venturing into relatively new political territory as regards volatile politics in South Asia, Messrs Rompuy and Barroso will also encourage recent signs of a thaw in Indian relations with Pakistan following Islamabad’s decision to grant Most Favoured Nation trade status to India and Delhi’s move to allow a World Trade Organisation (WTO) waiver on zero-tariff EU imports of Pakistani textiles.There will be discussions on climate change and signature of a declaration on enhanced cooperation on energy which will allow joint activities in areas such clean coal, energy efficiency and renewables as well as nuclear safety.Interestingly, cooperation possibilities will be explored as regards cyber security and anti-piracy operations as well as more exchanges on counter-terrorism.These initiatives are positive and should help prepare the ground for further political exchanges. However, as the FTA negotiations enter the final stretch and domestic lobbies in both India and Europe fight hard to defend their interests, the summit’s focus will inevitably be on trade.The EU is seeking a steep reduction in tariffs for export of its automobiles, wines and spirits to India. However, the proposals have met with fierce resistance from Indian manufacturers.Europeans are also pushing India to open the banking and insurance, postal, legal, accounting, maritime, security and retail sectors.European carmakers say the FTA will grant Indian-built cars immediate duty-free access to the EU but would only reduce the tariff barrier to European vehicle exports to a level of 30 per cent, which would stay intact indefinitely. Car manufacturers in India including Tata, Toyota, Maruti Suzuki, Honda, Hyundai Motor and General Motors, otherwise fierce competitors in the Indian market, have joined ranks to resist what they fear will be a flood of imported European cars into the Indian market.These and other disagreements will inevitably be sorted out in the coming months. Once the FTA is completed, the EU and India must pay increased attention to other aspects of their relations. Both sides can set key priorities which meet India’s requirements as a dynamic emerging power but a country which is also struggling to combat poverty and exclusion.As India rises along with the rest of Asia, it deserves stronger EU recognition as a regional and global power, not just an expanding market for EU exports and investments.

Democracy is hard work, says Indonesian leader (13/12/11)

For a quick insight into Indonesia’s ambitions of exerting regional power and global influence, visit Bali in December when the laid-back luxury beach resort morphs into an animated hub of discussion and debate on democracy, human rights and the rule of law.Delegates to the Bali Democracy Forum are a motley crew: the meeting held last week brought together representatives from over 80 countries and hundreds of observers. The conference’s title – “Enhancing Democratic Participation in a Changing World: Responding to Democratic Voices” – may not be catchy and some of the speeches were tedious. But the message from Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains strong and unequivocal: Asian countries must match their economic success with democracy and political reform.The focus this year was inevitably on the Arab Spring. The Indonesian President warned that based on his country’s experience, there were no quick fixes. “It is safe to assume that in the early years, things will be more difficult before it gets better…Democratic success has to be built, earned and improvised every step of the way. Indeed elections are only one of the tools of democracy and building a mature democracy takes a lot more than holding elections.”Launched in 2008 to encourage discussion and exchange of views on democracy among Asian countries, annual meetings of the Bali Democracy Forum have become a potent exercise in Indonesian public diplomacy.The Forum has grown in credibility and prestige over the years, spotlighting Indonesia’s democratic record since the fall of President Suharto in 1998, and the country’s increasingly vocal and visible aspirations to become Asia’s prime normative power and champion of political reform and democracy.The message from Jakarta is strong and clear: Indonesia matters – in both Southeast Asian and on the global stage. The country’s new breed of gutsy and self-confident politicians and diplomats are breaking with the cautious approach of past administrations by working hard to give Indonesia a stronger regional and international voice.Indonesia’s transformation from dictatorship to a modern and robust democracy in the past decade is no modest achievement – and through the annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia wants to spread the gospel on democracy.Indonesia’s foreign policy ambitions are not new. The country has long been active on the regional and international foreign and security policy stage. However, President Yudhoyono, now serving his second and final term in office, has given a new boost to the reputation of Southeast Asia's largest economy and most populous nation, successfully portraying it as one of Asia’s most exciting countries with constructive contributions to make within the region and on the global stage.Helped by men like former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, Indonesian diplomacy is now in full gear, its officials no longer content to watch from the sidelines as regional and world leaders step up engagement with China and India.Mr Wirajuda, a gentle and affable man, with a sweeping vision and experience of the world tells me in Bali that Indonesia wants to share its experience with Arab countries in transition. “WE can learn from each others’ mistakes,” he says.The focus has to be on social justice, on fighting corruption on not allowing a monopoly of power. “Governments have to be sensitive to the aspirations of the people,” he underlines.Significantly, Turkey, seen as a model for mixing Islam and democracy, was also present at the Bali meeting.In the last few years, Indonesia has taken its place in the G20, become a force to be reckoned with in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and adopted a moderating role within the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC).Jakarta’s efforts at fighting terrorism and radicalization are watched carefully by its neighbours as well as the United States and the European Union.Long-term prospects are bright. Indonesia’s economic growth rates – expected to remain around the 6 per cent mark in the near future – continue to impress. Demographics are excellent; 44% of its population is under 24, meaning a growing workforce in years to come. Basic literacy rates are at 90% (although education still needs a lot of investment). The country is resource-rich. It's a major exporter of soft commodities such as palm oil, cocoa and coffee, as well as coal.But it's not just a geared play on commodities. The economy is mostly driven by domestic demand, with consumption accounting for around 60% of GDP. Indonesia is also strategically located: half of world trade passes by its northern maritime border, giving the country a strategic role in ensuring safe and secure international navigation.Small wonder then that US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard are among leaders who have recently trod the red carpet in Jakarta. The US and Australia are seeking to sign ambitious cooperation pacts aimed at enhancing ties with Indonesia, clearly seeing the country as a counter-weight to China's growing influence in the region.As the driving force behind many Asian regional integration initiatives. Indonesia is often held up as an example to be followed by neighbouring Burma/Myanmar, a role that Jakarta does not shun.To fulfill its regional and global ambitions, however, Indonesia will have to put its domestic house in order. Indonesians tell me the country remains riddled by corruption and religious extremism is still a problem. Few doubt that Indonesia needs to make faster progress in addressing issues like freedom of expression, military reform, police brutality (especially in Papua), treatment in prisons and of minorities.“We remain vigilant as Indonesia is not totally free from the prospect of new communal conflicts flaring up,” the Indonesian President told delegates at the Bali Forum, adding: “The more we guarantee human rights for our citizens, the more durable our democracy will become.” It is a lesson for many countries, not just those living through the so-called “Arab Spring”.

America’s focus on Asia is a “wake up call” for Europe (Originally published02/12/11)

America’s focus on the Asia-Pacific appears to have acted as a much-needed wake-up call for the European Union. Over the coming months, EU policymakers are expected to take a closer look at Europe’s relations with Asia and hopefully come up with a new blueprint for invigorating flagging Europe-Asia ties.There is much to be done. Having failed to forge real “strategic partnerships” with the region’s rising powers, the 27-nation EU has long-focused on a limited trade-only agenda with most Asian nations. Trade and economic ties do certainly bind and foster inter-dependence. But the economic link has not resulted in stronger Europe-Asia political relations or joint action to tackle key 21st Century challenges.EU-Asia security links are practically non-existent. After a successful peace monitoring mission in Aceh in 2005-2006, the EU has steered clear of any security-related initiatives in Asia. Recently, Asian and European countries have cooperated in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia action in Asia. But this is of course eclipsed by the US military presence in Asia – and President Barack Obama’s recent decision to send more troops to Australia.The US clearly believes this is the “Asia Pacific Century”. During his nine-day sweep through the region, President Obama hosted an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Hawaii, went to Australia, took up America’s seat at the East Asia Summit in Bali and sent tough signals to China in its backyard. He also dispatched US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma on a breakthrough mission to assess moves towards democracy in the country.Countries in the region are eager for America’s presence and influence, often as a counter to China. The US President stressed in a speech to the Australian parliament that the troop buildup was not aimed at China. China’s defense ministry has warned, however, that plans to build up a U.S. military presence in Australia are a continuation of “Cold War thinking” that could destabilize the Asia-Pacific region.Certainly, no European leader can create the same buzz in Asia as the US President. The problem is that most Europeans do not even try.True, the EU has long talked of building strong strategic relations with Asia’s emerging powers. But the rhetoric remains just that: EU ties with China, India, Indonesia and the region’s other rising nations remain lackluster and uninspiring. EU and Asian leaders meet for high-level summits, ministerial encounters and issue wordy communiques. But handshakes and photo opportunities are no substitute for policy and strategic thinking.In dealing with ascending Asia, the EU would be well advised to take a page or two from the US strategy towards the region. America’s renewed commitment to the Asia-Pacific offers Europe an opportunity to learn from - and possibly participate in - what is certain to become a vibrant transpacific partnership.Competition with the US for influence and visibility in Asia has long driven EU policy in the region. EU leaders launched ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting) as a platform for dialogue with Asian countries in 1996, largely as a response to APEC. EU policymakers often gauge their success or failure in Asia by comparing European trade or business flows with America’s economic presence in the region.And since the US – and Russia – participated in the latest East Asia Summit, the EU is stepping up pressure on Asian governments to be given entry into the influential club.A new transpacific alliance could therefore provide the spur Europe needs to get its own act together in Asia.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances with countries in the region.However, European policymakers have not been as good at doing their homework on Asia as their American counterparts. Even as Hillary Clinton promises substantially increased investment - diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming years, Catherine Ashton, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy, has yet to set out a convincing blueprint for relations with Asia.In fact, apart from trips to China, Ashton is a rare visitor to the rest of the continent. Her decision to stay away from the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Bali, Indonesia in July this year, for a second year running, was a serious diplomatic faux pas.Asians saw Ashton’s absence from ARF as a snub and yet another signal that, apart from a focus on China, Europe is not really interested in the region. Many Asian analysts warn that Europe is becoming increasing irrelevant in Asia. And they insist that if Europeans are serious about joining the EAS, they should stop talking and – like the Americans - start proving they are serious about stepping up political engagement with Asia.Turning EU rhetoric into action can begin with four easy steps:For starters, senior EU officials can stop playing hard-to-get and start attending key Asian meetings taking place in the region.The European External Action Service should hammer out a revamped, up-to-date agenda for EU-Asia cooperation which goes beyond trade and business. EU negotiations on free trade agreements with Asian countries are a positive step forward in helping to enhance economic ties. But trade policy, however active, cannot replace foreign policy.EU policymakers need to engage in some serious reflection, based on input from independent researchers, think tanks, academics, business leaders and other non-state actors, from both Europe and Asia, on how to get Europe-Asia ties on a more dynamic track. Like the Americans, Europeans must engage more actively with independent think tanks working on Asia.Again, like the Americans, the EU should become an active partner in the increasingly important security discussions in Asia, including within ARF and other fora.Once it has stepped up engagement with Asian countries, the EU will be in a position to make a credible bid to join a transpacific dialogue. After all, Europe’s cooperation is essential in tackling today’s global challenges.

Asia, Europe and One Health (Originally published 10/11/11)

With the world population now estimated at 7 billion, international attention has focused on the impact of the rising population on the battle against poverty, global food security and climate change. A more crowded world is also likely to be more vulnerable to emerging and rapidly-spreading infectious diseases.Recent health crises such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and the avian influenza epidemic have highlighted the intricate relationships and linkages between people, animals and ecosystems as well as the ease and rapidity with which diseases travel across borders.Tackling epidemics and pandemics in today’s globalised world clearly requires international cooperation. With a majority of human infectious diseases commonly attributed to have originated in animals, working across disciplines is also necessary.Asian and European governments are committed to integrating the One Health approach, which seeks to promote, improve, and defend the health and well-being of all species, into their policies.The European Union has set up a new animal health strategy and initiated joint infectious diseases research programmes in key areas such as vector-borne diseases, vaccine development and neglected zoonoses (diseases transmitted from animals to humans).Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is playing a leading role in regional arrangements involving animal and human health sectors, in particular, in terms of how to respond to outbreaks of infectious diseases at a regional level.Having made an early pledge to integrate the "One Health" approach in its regional mechanisms, ASEAN is already committed to going beyond animal health, towards the human health and environmental sectors. ASEAN is also taking into consideration the influence of other sectors such as education, infrastructure, trade and tourism.Recent health crises have in fact encouraged ASEAN members to work together at a regional level. In addition, ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, and Republic of Korea) have developed the Emerging Infectious Diseases Programme to tackle pandemics such as SARS and avian flu.The 2007-2011 Strategy for Regional EU-Asia Cooperation sets aside a total of 48 million euros worth of EU regional funds fir health-based cross-border cooperation in Asia, combining animal and human health cooperation for the first time, in addition to the environment.A separate Highly Pathogenic Emerging and Re-emerging diseases (HPED) programme, started by the Commission in January 2010, aims to strengthen the institutional capacities of ASEAN, SAARC (South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation) and their Secretariats to control HPED and to improve epidemic and pandemic preparedness in the region in a sustainable manner.For the next three years, the Commission’s major focus will be on driving the "One Health" approach forward in tandem with its major international partners.There is potential for more Asia Europe cooperation on One Health initiatives. A recently published EU-funded study showcases ten “One Health” case studies in Asia and Europe including emergency measures to address serious outbreaks of infectious disease, community engagement projects to improve disease surveillance and control and communication strategies to change risky behaviour.The document, which also includes a catalogue of data bases covering key One Health documents, focal points and One Health programmes and activities, provides a good basis for further Asia-Europe discussion – and cooperation – on One Health initiatives.Such collaboration can be done best through the framework provided by the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). An ASEM meeting on One Health is in fact planned for next year.ASEM can help combine Asia's experience in communicable diseases outbreaks with the EU's experience in institution building. Asia and Europe can learn from each other’s experience by exchanging information and “best practice”, including through collaboration between universities, research institutes and pharmaceutical companies.Better coordination of existing initiatives, projects and programmes can also be assured through the connection of a One Health ASEM network and the connection of existing data bases.

Promoting the private sector’s role in development (Originally published 04/11/11)

Official Development Assistance (ODA) from rich industrialised countries to poorer developing nations was once considered pivotal in achieving growth and development. Official north-south financial flows remain a vital factor in the combat against poverty. In the 21st Century, however, the global architecture of development cooperation is changing rapidly.The ranks of official donors now include newly industrialised countries like South Korea and emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil. Significantly also, development cooperation is no longer the exclusive preserve of governments. Private actors have emerged as key aid donors, with private aid – including aid provided by foundations, corporations, non-governmental organisations, and individuals – increasing rapidly over the past decade.In addition to bringing additional capital, these new actors are also injecting fresh know how and innovative ideas into development cooperation. Official and private aid can complement each other and it is increasingly important that official and private donors work together to promote development.The emergence of private actors as a leading source of development assistance is good news. With many Western governments implementing austerity measures, significant cutbacks expected in ODA – making it ever more difficult to meet the United Nations’ 0.7 percent of GDP as aid target - and public opinion in industrialised states grappling with “donor fatigue”, the mobilisation of private sector funds for fighting poverty is significant.The focus on non-state actors has coincided with the emergence of new global challenges such as combating climate change, averting global health pandemics and securing international peace.Taking on these and other tasks requires innovative responses and expertise which can be provided by the private sector. Recognising the added value of private donors, national governments and international development agencies (IDAs) have started to work closely with the private sector to mobilise investments for sectors such as healthcare, water and sanitation, agriculture, and financial services, including microcredit and micro-insurance.Private actors bring in a new dynamic, new money, new approaches and new solutions to key challenges facing developing nations. But private development assistance (PDA) is no panacea – and certainly no substitute for ODA. In fact, private assistance may - in some cases – even undermine the effectiveness and efficiency of the development landscape, thereby impacting negatively on the sustainable development of poor countries.The Development Aid Committee of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation for Development (DAC) is seeking to remedy this by ensuring that the private sector is involved in the debate on development effectiveness.Clearly, given the array of challenges facing donors and developing nations, it is essential that private and public actors in development cooperation work with each other to ensure that assistance is used most efficiently and effectively.Development cooperation actors need to undertake a thorough review of their experiences to date on public-private cooperation to chart a course for the future. They should take a closer look at the potential for synergies and conflicts of interest and evaluate past successes to understand just what works and what does not. This is essential if successful cooperation projects are to be up scaled and replicated.The focus should also be on more information and research, evaluation and transparency to ensure that PDA is subjected to the same rigorous conditions as ODA currently is. Private development assistance actors must find a way to make their efforts sustainable and must ensure the involvement of local actors in the planning and delivery of their assistance.

In keeping with the increased role of the private sector, the debate on aid effectiveness should be enlarged to include “development effectiveness”. Common principles also need to be agreed to promote greater cooperation between the public and private sectors, with the objective of increasing the understanding of the respective contributions towards common development objectives, building on existing initiatives.In partnering with governments and international agencies, private and public donors should agree on common development outcomes and engage with each other in transparent and inclusive dialogues on their priorities.The “revolution” that non-state actors have triggered in international development cooperation, through their individual actions and through coalitions and alliances with other private donors as well as with official aid agencies, is significant. The current aid revolution should therefore be welcomed – but also closely monitored.

Asia 2050: Hopes and Challenges (Originally published 05/10/11)

For insight into the historic changes taking place in Asia, read and compare the Asian Development Bank’s recent ground-breaking report (Asia 2050: Realising the Asian Century) tracking Asia’s seemingly unstoppable rise with the World Bank’s seminal study on The East Asian Miracle published in 1993.East Asia’s eight turbo-charged power houses described by the World Bank two decades ago have now been joined by China – the biggest development story in the world today and the region’s dominant economy. India, while not an East Asian state, is part of the region’s growth trajectory as are Australia and New Zealand.The East Asian Miracle pointed to strong fundamentals, international integration, and good government as the key factors of success in East Asia. But it all came crashing down a few years later as the region was brought to its knees by the 1997-1998 financial crises. Complaints about corruption, nepotism, poor financial regulation and more dominated the headlines. The region was expected to lose years of growth. Asia faltered but it did not fail.The recovery has been difficult but relatively rapid as governments got serious about putting their houses in order. Today Asia is doing better than anticipated and the region has – so far – managed to escape relatively unscathed from the slowdown affecting Europe and the US.As the ADB underlines, if Asia’s march to prosperity, being led by seven economies with more than 3 billion people between them – China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia - continues apace, there will be some 3 billion additional affluent Asians by 2050. Asia’s combined GDP – also including poor nations such as Laos and Pakistan – will rise from 17 trillion dollars last year to 174 trillion dollars in 2050. In short, Asia will retain the dominant economic position it held 300 years ago.But Asia’s ascendance is not set in stone. Countries could slip and stumble into a middle income trap of stagnation and slow growth. And even as we celebrate rising Asia, it cannot be forgotten that the region is still home to almost half the world's absolute poor, who earn less than 1.25 dollars a day.

Emerging economies face the risk of being stuck in the "middle-income trap" as bursts of rapid growth, driven by export-based manufacturing, are followed by periods of stagnation or decline.

There are other key challenges -- rising inequality within and between countries, poor governance and corruption in many of them, and intensifying regional competition for finite natural resources.

In the worst case, according to the ADB, Asia could face “a perfect storm” of bad macro-economic policies, unchecked financial sector exuberance, conflict, climate change, natural disasters, changing demography and weak governance.

To make Asian growth sustainable, the study says, countries must address poverty, equality of access and opportunity, and focus on education, entrepreneurship, innovation and technological development. Massive urbanization will need to be tackled.

Climate change is “a wild card for Asian development”, warns the study, which stresses that Asia is already hit by more storms, floods and other natural disasters than any other region.

Asia must retool its institutions to ensure transparency, accountability and predictability in order to respond to demands for greater voice and participation in government being made by an expanding middle class.

Significantly, regional cooperation and integration are seen as vital for Asia’s continuing rise. The ADB also correctly insists that Asia will need to take greater ownership of the “global commons” and transform itself from a passive onlooker in the debate on global rule maker to an active debater and constructive rule maker.

Changes in Asia are impacting not only on the region itself but across the world. The United States is stepping up its engagement with all major Asian actors. In fact, if any thing China’s economic rise has increased other Asian countries search for closer military and security links with the US.

Is there a role for Europe in the Asian Century? Certainly, Europe has strong historical, cultural and economic ties with Asian countries. However, as pointed out in a Friends of Europe policy briefing and conference held in June 2011, enhanced Europe-Asia cooperation in the political and security spheres, requires stronger mutual understanding and a deeper knowledge of each other.

Key findings of the ADB report and Europe’s potential as a partner to help Asia maintain its growth trajectory were the subject of our breakfast debate entitled "Asia 2050: Challenges ahead" on 6 October 2011.

Saudi women and the Arab spring (Originally published 30/09/11)

There’s good news and bad news for advocates of women’s rights in the Arab world: Saudi Arabia has announced that women in the country will for the first time be able to vote and stand in municipal elections in 2015. The bad news is that they will probably have to walk to the polling stations.

Only hours after there was general applause for Saudi King Abdullah’s “revolutionary and historic” decision to give women the municipal vote, a court in the country sentenced a woman to 10 lashes for challenging a ban on women driving in the kingdom.

True, the punishment has been overturned by the king. But the entire episode does not say much for the status of women in Saudi Arabia - and the king's chances of even ensuring a slow, snail-paced reform of his country.

It is indeed a pity that the world’s richest, most influential and most powerful Arab state continues to treat half of its citizens as irresponsible children who cannot be trusted to become full-fledged adult citizens of the 21st Century.

The Muslim world would be a very different place if instead of fighting against modernity and equality, the Saudi monarchy used its riches and influence to promote equal opportunities, freedom and democracy.

For the moment those looking for inspiration in reconciling Islam and modernity have to learn lessons from Turkey or Indonesia.

Many Muslim countries squirm in the Saudi grip – complaints against the spread of Wahhabi values are rife in Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan and elsewhere – but most people are reluctant to denounce the encroaching Saudi influence on their lifestyles. Indonesian scholars of Islam are the exception.

It is women who bear the brunt. Life for women in many parts of the Muslim world is not easy. There is discrimination at home and in the work place, multiple constraints and traditions to follow, rules and values that have to be respected, men who have to be “obeyed”.

The contagion is spreading to Muslim communities in Europe where France and Belgium have recently enacted legislation banning women from wearing the burqa.

Saudi Arabia is the worst offender. Women are not only veiled and segregated but cannot work, own property or even open a bank account without their father’s or husband’s permission.

Despite the king’s decision to over-rule the court, women are also denied the right to drive.

Women are key actors in the demand for change and reform that continues to convulse the Arab world. They must be supported in their determination to have a voice and a role to play in a post-revolution Middle East.

It’s happened before: women take part in a revolution but are instructed to stay home and stay quiet once the upheaval is over.

King Abdullah certainly deserves credit for his decision to give women the right to vote, to run in municipal elections and to be appointed as full voting members of the Majlis Al-Shura, a government advisory group.

It is a first step toward moving his country into the modern world but it is not nearly enough

Recognising Palestine: EU’s Middle East policy in the spotlight (Originally published 21/09/11)

Europe’s struggle to forge a common stance on Palestinian efforts to win statehood recognition at the United Nations is a blow to the EU’s long-standing quest to make friends and influence policy in the Middle East. The UN move by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is hardly a surprise. Palestinian leaders have been mulling over the decision for several years. Also, as the rest of the Arab world wakes up to people power – and given the continuing stalemate in Israel-Palestine negotiations – a decision by the Palestinians to take their case to the UN sooner rather than later was to be expected.Europeans are deeply split on the issue: While France and Britain have signalled they are likely to support the Palestinians at least in the UN General Assembly, Germany has warned about the repercussions on peace talks with Israel. Others such as the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have indicated they will oppose the effort.The EU should have been better prepared. Since the 1980 Venice Declaration, Europeans have spoken in favour of a two-state solution to end the Israel-Palestinian conflict. The Palestinian Authority has received millions of Euros in EU assistance to build up institutions in preparation for full-fledged statehood. EU ministers are regular visitors to the region and Catherine Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, has spent many weeks in the region, working with the Americans and Tony Blair, the international envoy for the Middle East, to try and get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table.All of this makes the current disarray in EU ranks even more perplexing. It is also damaging for Europe’s international credibility and long-standing efforts to become a more powerful player in the Middle East. Europe’s disjointed response to the Palestinian bid will be difficult to explain given EU support for the Arab Spring and the values of democracy and freedom in the region.Mr Abbas is expected to deliver a formal request for statehood recognition on September 23 when he speaks to the UN General Assembly. The US and many European governments are urging the Palestinian leader not to push for an actual vote in the UN Security Council, where the US has promised a veto, but to go instead to the General Assembly with a demand for an upgrade of the Palestinians’ current observer status from “entity” to “non-member state.” This would place the Palestinians in a position similar to that of the Holy See, the government of the Roman Catholic Church, enabling them to sign international treaties. That could include having cases heard in the International Criminal Court.Once Mr Abbas hands a letter to the UN secretary-general calling for the Security Council to recognise Palestine as a state, it could take weeks or months for the UN to act on the Palestinians' request. The EU should use this time to rework its Middle East strategy to make it more credible and coherent.

September 11, 2001: A Watershed Moment for European Muslims (Originally published 09/09/11)

Ten years on, there is little doubt: September 11, 2001 was a watershed moment for Muslims, not just in the Islamic world and the United States but also in Europe. Largely unnoticed until then, 9/11 thrust the spotlight on Europe’s 20 million-strong Muslim community which suddenly found itself in the eye of the storm.Muslims were adamant that Al Qaeda and terrorism had nothing to do with their religion. Nobody believed them, however. It was a question of guilt by association.Europe’s struggle to build an inclusive society which recognises and accommodates Muslims and other minorities was made more difficult during the last decade. The tragic massacre in Norway this summer is a sad reflection of the strength of anti-Muslim feeling among Europe’s far-right.

The attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, followed by London and Madrid, the tragedy in Mumbai and terrorist acts elsewhere, have prompted strengthened international counter-terrorism efforts. They have also meant increased suspicion, surveillance and stigmatisation of Muslim communities, including in Europe.

Today, the arrival of refugees and asylum seekers from North Africa in recent months is exacerbating fears of a rising Muslim presence in Europe, amid concerns that Muslims cannot be truly integrated as full-fledged European citizens.

The current economic crisis coupled with weak leadership - as well as increased contacts between far-right groups in Europe and America – is making it easier for populist politicians to spread a simple albeit toxic xenophobic message: Europe is turning into Eurabia and the Shariah is being introduced by stealth. This negative narrative has filtered into Europe’s political mainstream.

The reality is more upbeat, however. Despite the hand-wringing over the visible presence of Islam and Muslims in the public space, the last ten years have also been marked by transition and change in the lives of European Muslims.

While causing discomfort and unease, the spotlight on Muslims has also had a positive effect by helping Muslims and host communities to confront difficult issues of integration which had been neglected over decades.

Over the last ten years, European Muslims have become more active in demanding equal rights as full-fledged citizens, organising themselves into pressure groups, and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural and sports icons.

Similarly, European governments are slowly combining an approach focused on security and counter-radicalisation with an integration agenda and Muslim outreach programmes. Government and business recruitment policies are being changed gradually to increase the employment of Muslims and minorities.

Business leaders are demanding an increase in immigration, including from Muslim countries, to meet Europe’s skills shortage. The EU has adopted a new anti-discrimination directive in the new Lisbon Treaty which strengthens existing rules on combating racism.

The challenge for European governments and European Muslims is to hammer out a fresh narrative which looks at European Muslims as active and full-fledged citizens rather than as exotic foreigners.

Despite recent comments by the French, German and British leaders on the failure of multiculturalism in Europe, the continent today is a vibrant mix of people, cultures and religions. Integration and mainstreaming is taking place although this is often not spotlighted by politicians or the media.

However, the voices of reason on immigration and Muslims remain strangely silent. European politicians are reluctant to tell the real truth about Muslims and immigrants’ contribution to their country’s economy, culture or history. Business leaders may sometimes point out – timidly – that ageing and skills-deficient Europe needs foreign labour, but their arguments are lost in transmission. In all honesty also, intelligent and reasonable Muslim voices are heard much too seldom.

Europe needs a rational, thoughtful debate on the challenges of reconciling justifiable European concerns on employment with efforts to build an inclusive society. If it is to compete on the global stage, Europe should seek to capitalise on the talents of all its citizens. Perhaps, after the storm, there will then be calm acceptance of diversity.

In Australia, Barroso must also reach out to others in Asia-Pacific (Originally published 02/09/11)

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso’s visit this week to Australia is good news for Europe’s still largely under-developed relationship with Canberra. If he plays his cards right, the Commission chief could also use his visit to Australia - and New Zealand - to give a much-needed boost to the EU’s lacklustre engagement with other Asia-Pacific nations.

That at least is what Australia and most Asian countries are hoping for. “We’re seeking a broader and deeper engagement with the EU on a bilateral level,” says Brendan Nelson, Australia’s Ambassador to the EU. In addition, Barroso’s visit should lead to greater understanding in Europe of the increasing political and economic importance of the Asia-Pacific and the rapid changes taking place in the region, he underlines.

The message certainly needs to be hammered home – repeatedly – in conversation with senior EU policymakers. While the rise of Asia has not gone unnoticed in European capitals and by Europe’s dynamic business sector – EU-Asia trade and investment flows are booming - the EU’s top officials appear largely indifferent to the growing political and geo-strategic clout of the region.Certainly, high-level visits to China abound. India gets a look-in occasionally. But Asians are still smarting at the decision by EU High Representative for foreign and security policy, Catherine Ashton, to stay away from the meeting in July of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) which is hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and brings together leading regional and global powers.As an Asia-Pacific nation seeking ever-closer integration and engagement with the region, Australia sees the ARF as an “extremely important” forum for security discussions in Asia, says Ambassador Nelson. “It is in the interest of Australia and the region that the EU engages strongly with the ARF,” he underlines.In fact, most ASEAN officials make clear that the EU’s hopes of joining the East Asia Summit, which in addition to key Asian players, now includes Russia and the US as members, is largely conditional on its performance in the ARF.Barroso’s visit to Canberra – the first such trip to the country by a Commission president in thirty years – could help ease some of Asia’s concerns about the direction of EU foreign policy. But this will require that the Commission president uses his many public appearances and speeches to reach out to the wider region.

Significantly, Australia joined the ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting) last year, highlighting its Asia-Pacific identity. And for all the focus on the US and Europe, Australia’s growing economic and political links with the Asia-Pacific region guarantee it a buoyant future.

Relations with China are clearly at the core but Australia is also forging stronger ties with India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Japan, countries which provide an expanding market for Australian exports, mainly of commodities. Integration with rising Asia helps explain the increase in Australian incomes in the last two decades and the country’s still-strong economic performance.Relations between the EU and Australia have been improving rapidly in recent years, with earlier tensions over agriculture and trade now part of an almost-forgotten past. That “narrow” agenda has now been widened to include plans to sign an EU-Australia Partnership Framework which will make Australia a “tier one” partner for Europe, says Ambassador Nelson.The agreement, expected to be signed later this year, will allow for regular senior-level contacts between the two sides and closer consultation on foreign policy and international security issues as well as global trade and climate change.With Baroness Ashton also expected to be in Australia in late October to attend a high-level Commonwealth meeting, the EU should not miss the opportunity to use the new focus on Australia to build bridges with an increasingly EU-sceptical Asia-Pacific.

Debate needed on EU extremism (Originally published 29/07/11)

The terrorist tragedy in Norway should spur an urgent Europe-wide debate on the challenge of countering violent extremism, whether domestic or imported.In fact, the conversation should be global. Europe is not alone in finding it difficult to build – and sustain – societies which embrace diversity. Minorities, including Christians, Hindus and Islamic minority sects, face discrimination and violence in many parts of the Muslim world. Hindu Fundamentalists are a threat to India's inter-communal peace and harmony.Events in Norway are a powerful reminder that no country can claim to be safe from terror. Also, in an inter-connected and globalised world, where people, ideas and bombs can move rapidly across borders, extremism cannot be tackled by any one country alone.Anders Behring Breivik may have been a lone, unhinged, gunman seeped in anti-Islamic sentiments picked up from Islamophobic websites in Europe and in the United States. Let’s not fool ourselves, however: the climate of hate, intolerance and xenophobia propagated by far-right parties is certainly helping create an “enabling” environment for violence by self-appointed “counter-jihadists”.The poisonous rhetoric of the extreme right is filtering into Western political mainstream. European leaders with their claims that multiculturalism has failed have not helped.A commentary by Friends of Europe trustees published earlier this year, "An 8-point strategy to revitalize the EU",  underlined the need for EU institutions together with EU member governments to challenge populist parties more forcefully, not pander to them.“Instead of implicitly accepting the far-right rhetoric against immigrants and multiculturalism, EU political leaders at all levels must develop a convincing counter-narrative to the deceptively simple anti-European rhetoric of the far right, and place closer integration far higher on the political agenda,” the commentary said.“Europe must continue to be a place which welcomes immigrants who are needed to ensure the sustainability of our welfare systems, and the dynamism of our economies,” it added.Cecilia Malmstrom, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, is among the small number of EU policymakers who has expressed concern at the rise of far-right parties in Europe and their success in spreading fear of Islam.“This creates a very negative environment, and sadly there are too few leaders today who stand up for diversity and for the importance of having open, democratic, and tolerant societies where everybody is welcome," Malmstrom said in a post on her blog.Ask Sajjad Karim, the British Muslim member of European Parliament who has seen his house surrounded by 40 demonstrators of the English Defence League which says it is against “radical Islam”. The Conservative MEP has said he believes they wanted to intimidate him, his wife and young daughter as they are Muslim, "MEP Sajjad Karim 'threatened' over EDL protest by home".The EU and the US, among others, are engaged in active discussions on countering radicalization. Their focus, however, is mainly on “Islamist” groups, especially so-called “home-grown” American and European radicals of Muslim descent (or Muslim converts) who risk being recruited by Al Qaeda.The danger from Al Qaeda remains. However, a stronger focus is required on inconvenient truths which are much too often swept under the carpet: the rise in many parts of the world of groups and organizations which fuel hatred and violence on religious, ethnic and cultural grounds.The counter-narrative to the toxic anti-immigrant rants of the European far right requires a cool-headed separation of fact from fiction. It is easy – but wrong – to blame Europe’s economic troubles on immigrants. It is simple – but false – to argue that all Muslims are misfits, potential terrorists and marginalized outsiders who cannot speak local languages and adhere to orthodox views.Many Europeans are clearly tempted to find scapegoats at a time of unease and uncertainty over Europe’s economic future, the perceived threat posed by globalization and Europe’s place in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world.But if Europe is to meet the many challenges of the 21st Century, its leaders must be able to counter the simple ideology of hate being peddled by the far-right.The truth is more upbeat than the far-right would have us believe: Europe is a vibrant and dynamic mix of people of many faiths, beliefs, cultures, languages and traditions. Instead of denouncing it as a problem, Europeans should celebrate the diversity of their societies.

US lessons for EU-Asia ties (Originally published 18/07/11)

European Union policymakers seeking a seat for Europe at the East Asia Summit, the region’s leading security forum, should stop talking and start proving they are serious about stepping up political engagement with Asia.Turning EU rhetoric into action can begin with three easy steps.For starters, senior EU officials can stop playing hard-to-get and start attending key Asian meetings taking place in the region.The decision by Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, not to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Bali, Indonesia on July 22-23 for a second year running is a serious diplomatic faux pas.Asians see it as a snub and yet another signal that, apart from a focus on China, Europe is not really interested in the region. Britain and Germany are understandably not too pleased with Ashton’s decision either.The fact that Ashton’s acting “deputy”, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, is also not going to the ARF makes things worse. The task of representing the EU at the ARF top table has apparently fallen to Elzbieta Bienkowska, Poland’s minister for regional development.Protocol-conscious Asians are not amused. If the Baroness is too busy, say Asian diplomats, she could have asked the much-respected Kristalina Georgieva,EU Commissioner for international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response, affairs, to attend the ASEAN Forum.True, the EU held its own Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) with Asian foreign ministers in Hungary in June. But by shying away from travel to Asia, Ashton and others are reinforcing the impression of EU neglect and indifference.Correcting this perception will not be easy. As a result, Europe may have to wait a long time for that much-coveted seat at the East Asia Summit which, in addition to key regional players such as Japan and Australia, now also includes both the US and Russia.Second, the European External Action Service should hammer out a revamped, up-to-date agenda for EU-Asia cooperation which goes beyond trade and business. EU negotiations on free trade agreements with Asian countries are a positive step forward in helping to enhance economic ties. But trade policy, however active, is no substitute for foreign policy.EU policymakers need to engage in some serious reflection, based on input from independent researchers, think tanks, academics, business leaders and other non-state actors, from both Europe and Asia, on how to get Europe-Asia ties on amore dynamic track. The conference “Europe and the Asian Century”, organised by Friends of Europe on June 21, highlighted several areas for future engagement between the two regions.European institutions still tend to be wary of advice from “outsiders”. As a result, EU policy on Asia has failed to adapt to Asia’s changing political, economic and social landscape. Like the Americans, Europeans must engage more actively with independent think tanks working on Asia.Third, like the Americans – and increasingly, the Russians - the EU should become an active partner in the increasingly important security discussions in Asia, including within ARF, the annual security-focused gathering of Asian foreign ministers and their key foreign partners.As she did last year, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is going to the ARF meeting and the other encounters organised around the Forum, including a preparatory meeting of the East Asia Summit which will be held in Bali on November 19, with President Barack Obama in attendance.US officials make clear that Clinton makes a point of “showing up” at Asian gatherings to prove America’s “sustained commitment” to the region and to enhance its strategic engagement with Asian countries, especially ASEAN members.The ARF agenda is impressive, including discussions on easing the ongoing border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, tensions in the Korean Peninsula (with the reclusive North Korea making a rare appearance on the international stage by sending its Foreign Minister Pak Ui-Chun attends to the Bali meeting)and conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea.Missing meetings may appear trivial to a harried and rushed EU foreign policy chief who has to deal with myriad pressing issues, including some in Europe's immediate neighbourhood. But diplomacy is about travel, networking and trying to influence and shape policies and perceptions.For too many years – with the exception of Javier Solana, the former EU high representative for foreign and security policy - EU commissioners and ministers have either stayed away from meetings with their Asian counterparts or put in a brief, formal appearance. Opportunities for dialogue and networking were missed. Personal relationships have not been nurtured.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances. If the EU wants a seat at the East Asia Summit, senior European diplomats will have to learn to engage more actively and more constructively with rising Asia.

ASEM to discuss non-traditional security threats (Originally published 01/06/11)

Asia Europe Meetings meetings have so far focused on traditional threats to global and regional security, including the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programes, the Arab-Israel conflict and the situation in Afghanistan.But while world peace is still threatened by inter-state wars and military conflicts, competition for access to food and energy resources, water disputes, health pandemics and terrorism are emerging as equally potent threats to global security.They are also becoming increasingly central to the evolving international security agenda.“Non-traditional” security challenges are not new. In a rapidly globalizing and interdependent world, however, their impact can be felt not only within countries but also on a regional and international level.They spread fast – and if left to fester, can cause enormous societal havoc and regional and global tensions.ASEM foreign ministers’ discussions in Budapest on June 6-7, on “non-traditional” security issuesare therefore a good step forward in fostering stronger Asia-Europe engagement on tackling key 21stCentury challenges.Hungary, the current presidency of the 27-nation European Union and host of the ASEM meeting, has said foreign ministers will look at questions like energy security, food security, water security and supply, climate change, terrorism as well as disaster preparedness and management.In an increasingly interconnected world, made smaller through increased trade and improved technology, unilateral action cannot effectively deal with these new challenges. Multilateral responses, including within the ASEM framework, are therefore important.As a platform for informal exchange and discussion, ASEM is ideally suited to explore the nature, scope and fall-out of the new security challenges. ASEM also allowsthe sharing of experiences and expertise on possible solutions and coping mechanisms.The new, non-military security threats share some common features: they are transnational (that is neither purely domestic nor purely inter-state), emerge quickly and spread rapidly – within countries and on the regional and global levels.In addition to their impact on people, they can also have a far-reaching economic impact – on individual countries and on the global stage.The SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2002, the “Avian flu” in 2007 as well as HIV/AIDS are examples of how quickly diseases can spread in an era of rapid inter-continental travel, prompting not only human tragedy but also devastating countries’ health sectors and economies.Asian countries are aware that the region’s recurring problem of haze caused by environmental pollution and forest fires can exact a very high price in terms of human security as well as cause damage to health systems and the economy.Today, rising food prices are increasing inflationary pressures in many parts of the world while also stirring social unrest and impacting on progress made so far in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Asian and European countries have some experience in joint action to tackle food security, disaster response, piracy at sea and terrorism.Rising food prices were discussed at an ASEM meeting held in Hanoi last month.At the ASEM 8 summit last year, leaders agreed to an increased sharing of intelligence to track down and stop the funding of piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and stressed the need to prosecute suspected pirates.They also asked countries to criminalize piracy and armed robbery at sea in national legislations.The EUNAVFOR Atalanta mission, launched in December 2008 and counting up to 12 ships and patrol aircraft supplied by Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, as well as non-EU member Norway, patrols the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin waters in conjunction with other anti-piracy missions operated by NATO and several Asian countries.ASEM experts on counter-terrorism and disaster-management meet regularly.However, more work is needed to identify and prioritise the new dangers, select institutions for responding to the expanding security agenda and work out linkages between traditional and non-traditional threats.Addressing human security issues will require that solutions are people-based, multilateral, and involve government, business and civil society.By providing an example of such multilateral cooperation, ASEM can help craft a new 21st Century global security agenda.

Let the best man/woman win the IMF job (Originally published 23/05/11)

Prepare for an epic battle over the appointment of a new head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following Dominique Strauss-Kahn's resignation as the organisations's managing director. Europeans are insisting the job should once again go to a European candidate. Countries like China, India, Mexico and South Africa, however, say it's time to end Europe's traditional grip on IMF leadership and appoint a representative from an emerging nation.The struggle for influence in global institutions between old and new powers has been brewing for many years. Newly-empowered emerging countries are impatient for a stronger say in economic global governance. They are especially adamant that the Bretton Woods institutions should reflect the emerging world's rising economic clout.There’s no doubt: Europe is currently over-represented in international bodies like the IMF and the World Bank. The cozy deal under which Europe gets to appoint the head of the IMF while an American leads the World Bank has also run its course. The point has been repeatedly made in the G20. There is no agreement, however, on the timing of the change-over to a new system.Strauss-Kahn’s resignation offers an early opportunity to move to a more modern 21st Century system for selecting top international civil servants. Appointments should be based on merit and qualification rather than nationality, a point made by many emerging countries and by Australia.As many EU governments have underlined, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde is well-placed to become the next IMF managing director. But they are wrong to insist that Lagarde should get the job because she is European. The EU argument, presented among others by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, that the new IMF chief must be sensitive to Eurozone economic woes is unconvincing – and inappropriate.The next IMF head should not be seen as doing special favours to Europe. EU policymakers’ insistence that Europe has a historical right to the job sends the wrong message to those who complain that Europeans are unwilling to cede existing power and privilege to newcomers.At stake in this debate is Europe’s ability to adapt to life in a globalised world and its willingness to accept the shift of power from older, industrialised countries to the world’s new and dynamic emerging economies. It is advisable therefore to open up the IMF competition, focus on merit and qualification and let the best man/woman win.The issue of IMF leadership was also discussed at our roundtable debate "Taming the turmoil: New rules for global finance" on 19 May 2011 and will be tackled at our Asia-Europe conference on 21 June 2011.

Time for Asia-Europe cooperation on food security (Originally published 06/05/11)

Asian and European policymakers meet in Chiang Mai, Thailand, next week for talks on food security amid fears that currently volatile food prices could trigger a new “food price shock” similar to the food crisis in 2006-2008.Rising food prices are spurring inflation and unease in Europe - but Asia is especially vulnerable. The region’s poor families spend over 60 per cent of their income on food compared to 10 per cent spent in developed nations. The rising cost of food is hurting Asia’s rural poor and urban middle classes.The Asian Development Bank has warned that a sustained 10 per cent rise in domestic food prices in developing Asia, home to 3.3 billion people, could push an additional 64 million people into extreme poverty. Recent gains in poverty reduction made in Asia could be seriously undermined.The statement echoed similar warnings made earlier in the year by World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick that “more people could become poor because of high and volatile prices.”The meeting in Chiang Mai on May 9 and 10 provides an opportunity for enhanced Asia-Europe cooperation to help defuse current uncertainties and improve global food security.Using the platform provided by ASEM, Asian and European countries can share experiences, exchange best practice and undertake joint initiatives to tackle the array of factors responsible for the rising cost of food.There is no dearth of issues to discuss. The 48 ASEM partners, including food producers, exporters and importers, must work together to improve farmers’ livelihoods, ensure sustainable agricultural and food production, encourage “responsible” agricultural investment and strengthen agricultural research.Sharing agricultural innovations and promoting technology transfers are important. Countries must work together to provide for food security arrangements in case of emergencies and share information on food security.ASEM members need a frank discussion on the many factors responsible for the current situation. Bad weather, including floods in Australia and Pakistan and increasing oil prices (immediately affecting the price of fertiliser) – worsened to some extent by the political turmoil in the Middle East – are clearly contributing to the problem.Countries’ efforts to reduce their dependence on oil by producing crops for fuel rather than food, can also impact on prices. Increases in population and added demand for more food by the world’s rapidly growing emerging countries – many of which are Asian – have further contributed to the pressure on food prices. An increase in the cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers and speculation in the futures market is aggravating the situation.To come to grips with the problem, governments need to focus attention on strengthening entire food systems from farm production, processing, retail and distribution to consumption. There must be increased emphasis on agricultural research which can increase crop yields.It is a daunting task requiring national initiatives but also collective action. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has agreed, through the ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework, to establish an emergency regional rice reserve system.The European Union is also well-placed to provide its experience and expertise to Asian countries. Once criticised for its system of costly farm subsidies and high farm tariffs, the EU has revamped its common agricultural policy and thanks to efficient and modern farming techniques, remains a leading exporter and importer of food products.The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, spends about 600 million euros a year on food security projects and programmes in developing countries.An EU food facility worth one billion euros is under implementation as a rapid response to the 2008 food crisis in developing countries. Most of the projects are expected to be completed by end-2011.With experts warning that if food and fuel prices continue to surge, economic growth in the Asian region could be reduced by up to 1.5% this year, the stakes are high for ASEM. In an inter-dependent world, changes in Asia’s growth prospects will have a strong impact on European economies.As a paper prepared for the ASEM meeting in Chiang Mai underlines, “Food security has become a serious challenge for our communities.” As such, it requires joint Asia-Europe action.

No time to waste in stopping Syrian violence (Originally published 20/04/11)

Syria’s decision to lift the 48-year old state of emergency should not stop the European Union from pressing for more change and reform in the country. President Bashar al-Assad must be warned to halt any more action by security forces against protestors, whether in Homs, Deraa, Damascus or elsewhere.

There is no time to waste. It is still not clear if the lifting of the state of emergency will quell protests. But since protestors are now demanding wide-spread change and reform, it is likely to be a question of too little, too late.

Quick action is needed not just to enhance Europe’s battered credibility as a foreign policy actor and ensure stability in Syria, a key regional power. After Libya, it is about making sure that another Arab awakening does not descend into tragic violence.

The Syrian Interior Ministry’s ominous warning to protestors that there is “no more room for leniency or tolerance” has to be taken seriously. Europe cannot sit back and allow a repeat of the Hama massacre of 1982 when 20,000 civilians were killed by Syrian security forces.

This time lack of European leverage in the Middle East cannot be used as an argument. The EU is not without clout in Damascus. Syria, unlike Egypt and Tunisia, is not an ally of the United States. It is part of the EU’s neighbourhood policy, a recipient of EU aid and trade concessions.

The EU is Syria's largest trade partner with total trade amounting to approximately €5.4 billion in 2009, covering 23.1% of Syrian trade. Brussels and Syria are close to signing an association agreement. It’s now time to use that leverage.

Reports from Syria indicate that at least 18 protesters have died in clashes since President Assad on April 16 ordered a newly-appointed cabinet to make changes to defuse dissent. Anti-government protesters have held demonstrations for the past five weeks and clashed with Syrian security forces on Fridays after the weekly Muslim prayers. At least 130 people have been killed in the unrest that started in mid-March, according to Human Rights Watch.

The turmoil poses a serious challenge to Assad, who inherited power from his father 11 years ago. The regime has responded to the protests by blaming foreign conspirators.

Given the risk of more violence and killings, Europe must take the lead in demanding change and reform in Syria. EU foreign ministers’ call earlier this month for an immediate end to the use of force by security forces against peaceful demonstrators should be followed up by forceful action – trade and aid sanctions, visa restrictions, financial assets freeze – if there is no satisfactory response.

The European Parliament is right to demand a suspension of talks on a future Association Agreement with Syria until Damascus agrees to carry out “expected tangible democratic reforms.”

The resignation of Syria's government on March 29 "will not be enough to satisfy the growing frustrations of the people", the Parliament’s resolution said, adding that in addition to lifting the state of emergency, President Assad must put an end to repression of political opposition and human right defenders and undertake genuine political, economic and social reforms.

The Parliament has also called for independent investigation into the attacks on protesters and an end to arms sales to Syria.

EU foreign ministers have been more cautious but said they could “review policy” if the situation does not improve. Recent events are proof that the EU needs to get much tougher in its message to the Syrians.

Tigers, jaguars and global growth (Originally published 14/03/11)

The impact of Asia’s rise on the European Union and the United States dominates world headlines. The focus is also often on the pros and cons of China’s growing presence in Africa. Lost in the reports is mention of Latin America’s booming economies – and the role played by ascending Asia in helping to transform the region.Latin America is rapidly emerging as a global economic power. And deepening economic links between Asia’s booming economies and Latin America have been pivotal in driving forward this evolution.This is clearly good news for both regions – and for the global economy. Increasing trade connections between Asia and Latin America have helped shelter both regions from the worst effects of the economic crisis affecting the US and the EU.The EU and the US have long urged developing countries to step up “south-south” trade to boost global trade flows, help create new jobs, raise revenues and diversify export patterns.Until recently, however, globalisation was all about growing links between industrialised and emerging nations. Today, however, it’s the integration of emerging markets that has become a major engine of world growth.China is of course spearheading the drive. “Latin America is looking towards China and Asia – and China and Asia are looking right back,” underlined the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in a report published in 2008.But other Asian countries including Japan, South Korea and India, are also expanding their presence in Latin America. The Inter-American Development Bank says Asian trade with the region topped 256 billion US dollars in 2010 –more than Latin America’s annual trade with the EU and more than half of its trade with the US. China has displaced the US as Brazil’s top trading partner.The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates intra-emerging market trade rose on average by 18 per cent per year from 2000 to 2008, faster than commerce between emerging and industrialised nations. It totalled 2.8 trillion US dollars in 2008, about half of emerging-market trade with all countries.The rise in south-south trade is impressive. Chinese exports to other emerging markets, accounted for 9.5 per cent of GDP in 2008, compared with 2 per cent in 1985. India’s exports rose to 7.3 per cent from 1.5 per cent and Brazil’s almost doubled to 6.3 per cent.It’s no secret; Asians are interested in Latin America’s natural resources. Commodity exports from Latin America to are thriving and likely to become even more buoyant as new highways being built across Latin America from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans open up new trade routes to Asia.Latin America is also an attractive market for Asia’s green technology firms. Indian pharmaceutical companies have started factories and joint ventures in Lain America and that produce millions of dollars worth of lost-cost generic drugs. Capital goods represent an estimated 54 per cent of Brazilian imports from China.There is undoubtedly trade rivalry between the two regions as low-cost Asian manufactured goods compete with Latin America’s industrial products both in the region itself and on the global stage.Asia and Latin American have so far dealt with such friction in a non-confrontational manner. Both sides have a vital interest in pushing for more dynamic south-south trade and investment flows. So does the rest of the world.

EU unity needed on Libya (Originally published 10/03/11)

European Union governments must not break ranks over how to end the prolonged crisis in Libya. They must also urgently agree on a new blueprint for stronger engagement with Egypt and Tunisia.Discord at the EU summit on March 11 or other meetings in the coming weeks will send a message of weakness and lack of resolve to Colonel Gaddafi, emboldening his supporters as they step up the offensive against rebels seeking his removal.Given the difficulties in getting a complete picture of the quickly changing situation in Libya – and different national concerns of the 27 EU states – Europe is not alone in struggling to find a coherent policy on Libya. The US is similarly divided on how best to tackle a very complex situation.European governments have imposed sanctions on Gaddafi and his family and sent millions of euros in humanitarian aid to refugees seeking to leave Libya. They remain rightfully wary of direct intervention, fearing entanglement in another prolonged war in the Middle East.In recent days, however, EU unity appears to be unravelling as member states set off in different directions.France has recognised the Libyan rebels as the country’s rightful representatives. The European Parliament says other European governments should do the same. Portugal, however, has held talks with an envoy despatched by Gaddafi, prompting Britain and German to insist that EU governments show pledge not to work or co-operate with Gaddafi. There is no EU agreement on setting up a no-fly zone although the UK and France are most clearly in favour of such a move.EU governments clearly need time to assess, reflect and consult on the right actions to take on Libya.  But while they do so, they should avoid sending mixed signals to Gaddafi and his supporters.Urgent action is also needed on a new EU strategy for Egypt and Tunisia as well as other countries in the region.EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton has prepared a paper for the EU summit including measures that include more EU financial support, through the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developmnent, help with the training and exchange of students, the emergence of a vibrant civil society, more inclusive governance. Food security, further trade opening and mobility partnerships form part of the overall package.Ashton’s approach may be too modest and cautious for some but this is not the time to quibble over details. These can be worked out later, in cooperation with the new emerging leadership in these countries.Events in North Africa and the Middle East undoubtedly represent an enormous challenge for the EU. Oil prices are rising and there is concern about the number of North Africans seeking asylum in Italy and other southern European countries.Europe’s global reputation is also at stake. How Europe responds to events in the south will determine how it is perceived not only by its immediate neighbours but by EU-watchers in many other parts of the world.

Finally, some EU action on Libya (Originally published 03/03/11)

Belated EU unity has been found on sanctions against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and his family, the EU has earmarked ten million euros in humanitarian aid to refugees stranded on Libya’s borders with Tunisia and Egypt while Britain and France are creating an air and sea bridge to take some of the Egyptian refugees back to their homes.Europe now also needs a new strategy to deal with the influx of North African refugees arriving on its shores. This is not the moment for hand-wringing over the large number of new arrivals, irresponsible talk of an “invasion” from the south or laments over the failure of multiculturalism in Europe. Urgent and intelligent measures are needed to help southern European countries provide better treatment to the new arrivals. This means more EU assistance for Italy and other southern European states and a quick agreement on a share-out of the refugees.The EU’s humanitarian operations are laudable but Europe has acquired an unfavourable reputation worldwide for the cold welcome it extends to many foreigners. Strict Schengen visa requirements hit foreign business leaders, students and artists. This is a chance to prove that “Fortress Europe” can open its doors to those in trouble. It is also about being a good neighbour.Clearly, the Italian government – and others like Malta, Greece and Spain – cannot be left alone to deal with the problem. Italy’s Interior Minister Roberto Maroni says his country could soon find itself “on its knees” if the refugee “invasion” continues. He has asked for a solidarity fund to assist countries that are the first to absorb the influx of refugees. However, not for the first time, EU states are divided.Meanwhile, Mustapha Nabli, Tunisia's newly appointed central bank governor, says that instead of crumbling under pressure, Europe could in fact benefit from the wave of new workers. “So it is a positive sum game, it is not a negative sum game,” he says.It’s a point worth making – but one that is unlikely to find an echo in today’s Europe. In remarks that have reverberated across the world, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Sarkozy have said Europe's experience in building a multicultural society has been a failure.The three EU leaders are right to question the bloc's patchy history of integration. But they make no constructive suggestions to improve the situation. And they put the onus on immigrants to melt in or get out. However, European governments have not done enough to embrace and promote diversity, enforce anti-discrimination legislation and create a more inclusive labour market.The reality of multicultural Europe is less gloomy than Merkel and others claim. True, some young Muslims fall prey to radical ideologies while others demand special privileges, including the establishment of faith-based schools, permission to wear the burka and segregation by gender at public swimming pools and hospitals. Tribal customs prevail in some communities.However, across Europe, Muslims and other minorities are becoming more active in demanding rights, organizing themselves into pressure groups, and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural and sports icons. This new generation of European Muslims believes it important to focus on citizenship and integration rather than on religious identity alone.The irony is that while politicians fret about immigration and foreigners, low fertility rates and an ageing population mean that Europe needs young foreign workers to fill labor shortages in both the skilled and unskilled sectors of the economy and to fund Europe's creaking pension and health care systems.It’s easy to consider tough new frontier controls, repatriation schemes and other measures to keep out North Africa’s refugees. But EU policymakers should also focus on job-generating investments in the region, come up with a more intelligent common immigration policy and possibly seek changes to the Dublin Convention to ease current pressure on first-arrival border states.EU leaders speak loudly and often about projecting European values of democracy and human rights. It’s worth remembering the people of North Africa are voicing these very aspirations.

EU SHOULD BUILD A REAL “RING OF FRIENDS” IN THE SOUTHERN MED (Originally published 23/02/11)

To create a real “ring of friends” in Europe’s neighbourhood, the EU should stop dithering and act quickly to help meet peoples’ aspirations in North Africa and the Middle East.Lecturing Gaddafi on human rights or fretting over immigration from the region – as EU foreign ministers did earlier this week - is not good enough. As his long rant on Libyan TV illustrated, Muammar Gaddafi is not listening. The EU’s focus should be on urgent, bold international action to stop the massacre in Libya. Innocent lives depend on it – and so does the EU’s much-damaged credibility in the region.It’s not too late: Europeans can throw their weight behind existing initiatives such as appeals by Libya's deputy ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim al-Dabashi, for international intervention in the country, including the establishment of a no-fly zone to help stop "a real genocide". Former British foreign secretary David Owen wants a UN Charter Chapter 7 intervention - meaning the authorisation of both military and non-military means to “restore international peace and security” – to be enforced by NATO air forces. UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon has warned, meanwhile, that the killing of civilians is “a serious violation of international humanitarian law”, opening the way for action in the International Criminal Court.European countries, having supplied Libya with weapons that are now being used for internal repression, have a special responsibility to make sure the killing stops. It is also a question of acting on the “right to protect” principle espoused by Europe.Elsewhere in the volatile region, visits to Tunisia and Egypt by senior EU and national policymakers are useful in establishing contact with both countries’ transitional authorities. Consultation with the US, World Bank and others is also helpful in forging a coordinated new international blueprint for the region.But actions speak louder than words. Moaning about the danger of increased immigration flows, the threat of extremists on Europe’s borders and other recent comments made, among others, by Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, reinforce the increasing perception worldwide that Europe is inward-looking and fearful of change. They also reveal a striking lack of understanding of events in the region.To start off, the EU should ditch the discredited “Mediterranean Union” dreamed up by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The blueprint is timid, technical and out-dated. The EU focus should now be on further opening up its market to southern Mediterranean exports, including farm products, making job-generating investments in the region and unleashing the potential and energy of the much-trammeled private sector. Among other things, such schemes will help stop the desperate human tide into southern Spain and Italy.The outlines of a new strategy – minus any reference to bigger trade benefits or increased aid for the region – are included in the statement released by foreign ministers on February 21. However, the focus needs to move from the backing of personalities and the military to the building of institutions, ensuring the rule of law, and strengthening the judicial system. Support for civil society, which Middle East governments have always opposed, should be reinforced and the fight against corruption emphasized. The EU can also share its experience in regional integration.Many of these ideas have been tried in the past – and failed because of lack of support from wary governments in the region. Hopefully, the changing landscape in North Africa and the Middle East means Europe will soon be able to engage with more credible and accountable state authorities as well as entrepreneurs and civil society representatives who are ready to embrace change.The EU has experience in promoting economic and political reform in eastern Europe – it should now be ready to give similar support and advice to its neighbours in the south.