ASEAN-EU to talk trade, security (Originally published 18/07/2014)

Asia remains high on the European Union’s foreign and security policy agenda following the meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations[1]) in Brussels on July 23.In August, security discussions dominated EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s participation in the influential ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Naypyidaw, Myanmar.  And mid-October, European and Asian leaders will gather in Milan for summit talks on injecting new life and momentum into their 18-year old ASEM (Asia Europe Meetings) partnership. (read more)Asia and Europe have worked hard to maintain momentum in their relations despite pressing - and difficult - domestic and regional concerns.  Such endeavours are to their credit.  However, the challenge facing participants at both the upcoming ASEAN and ASEM meetings is to build more trust and understanding - and take their relationship to a higher, more strategic level.Discussions at the EU-ASEAN meeting focused on an array of global and regional issues. But more importantly, both sides have specific long-standing demands which are likely to be raised.A “win-win” deal?For the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal.  The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes the ten-member ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others.  ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.ASEAN, meanwhile, is looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner”, the appointment of a special EU envoy accredited to the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.  While not opposed to either of these points, the EU has put ASEAN demands on hold.No breakthrough was expected at the meeting in Brussels. But if both sides play their cards correctly by engaging in innovative and creative diplomacy, the meeting could pave the way - further down the line - for a “win-win” deal on the EU’s entry into the EAS and the elevation of ASEAN to one of Europe’s “strategic partners”.As expected meanwhile, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. (read more)Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Domestic challengesKeeping Asia-Europe engagement on track has not been easy for either region. The EU still faces the over-arching challenge of consolidating a still-slow economic recovery, creating jobs, especially for young people, and deciding on the distribution of key EU posts, including the appointment of the next high-representative for foreign and security policy. Hammering out a coherent strategy vis a vis a more assertive and often-unpredictable Russia remains a challenge.  The EU is also still struggling to understand and respond to the continuing chaos and conflict in its southern neighbourhood.In Asia, meanwhile, conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas continue to strain relations between China and many of its neighbours and also challenge ASEAN’s claim to play a central role in the region.  In addition, ASEAN is grappling with a military coup in Thailand, ethnic violence in Myanmar amid preparations for next year’s presidential elections and the year-long political crisis over disputed election results in Cambodia.  While Jakarta mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is clearly the winner in Indonesia’s presidential elections, competing claims of victory by rival Prabowo Subianto have created unnecessary political confusion in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and most robust democracy.On the economic front, the Asian Development Bank has cut its initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent even as the region struggles to tackle problems posed by urbanisation, climate change and unequal development.Growing connectivityThe EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 (read more). The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity.  The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.Ashton’s participation in the ARF meeting in Napydaw ensures a much-needed, stronger EU-ASEAN dialogue on increasingly complex security issues. In a marked change over past years, there is already recognition of the need for a stronger EU-ASEAN conversation on security, including on non-traditional security threats including climate change, poverty alleviation, pandemics and illegal immigration.With 50% of world trade in tonnage passing through the South China Sea, the EU has taken a lead in establishing an EU-ASEAN high-level dialogue on maritime security, with a focus on port security, maritime surveillance, and the joint management of resources including fisheries and oil and gas.Significantly, while they once stayed carefully out of key Asian security disputes, EU countries with other Group of Seven leaders have expressed concern over tensions between China and some other Asian countries in the East and South China Seas, warned against any use of force and urged all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in accordance with international law.Deeper trustWhile much binds the two regions, upgrading EU-ASEAN ties requires deeper trust and understanding between the two sides. Encouragingly the earlier acrimony over participation and attendance at meetings is now buried.  Yet like ASEM gatherings, ASEAN meetings must become more inter-active and less formal and ritualistic. The focus on agenda items, prepared statements and out-dated rhetoric needs to be replaced by more open, frank and critical albeit constructive exchanges.Both sides have much to discuss and share.  They should be allowed to do so – even on difficult issues such as the military coup in Thailand, the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar or tensions in the South China Seas - without taking offense or engaging in an overzealous regard for diplomatic niceties.ASEAN and the EU have been talking to and working with each other for several decades - but the last three years have been especially important in binding the two regions together.  The Brunei Plan of Action adopted in 2012 laid the groundwork for a further intensification of EU-ASEAN ties. The meeting in Brussels should give added traction to EU-ASEAN engagement by preparing for a qualitative upgrade of relations within two to three years.

No time to lose: EU needs a new agenda for action (Originally published 28/05/2014)

So far, so predictable. As expected, voter turn-out in the European Parliament elections was modest, Far Right and populist parties made big gains, Jean Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister, whose European People’s Party (EPP) has the largest number of seats in the new assembly wants to be the next president of the European Commission – and EU leaders are undecided on what to do next.They should not be. The “wake up call” delivered by voters demands urgent responses and a complete reassessment of EU priorities.The attention must move from austerity to growth and jobs. The EU must do better at communicating with people. The populist rhetoric of the Far Right parties must be countered with a new, more assertive agenda for building a competitive, secure and credible Europe which is responsive to its citizens’ concerns but still able to play an important role in its neighborhood and on the global stage.And of course, EU leaders must reach a quick decision on nominating a new European Commission president, capable of enacting and implementing a fresh and ambitious agenda for Europe.This is not the moment for protracted squabbling on the way ahead – either on policies to follow or people to nominate. The first post-election meeting of EU leaders held on Tuesday was not a good start, however.Instead of cool-headed assessments and a focus on overhauling policies, the gathering heard the expected spate of complaints and recriminations about Europe having lost its way.With the Front National in the lead at home, French President François Hollande lamented that the EU project had become “remote and incomprehensible”, reflecting a "distrust in Europe and a fear of decline". British Prime Minister David Cameron noted peoples’ deep disillusionment and desire for change as the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) came first in the domestic vote.Criticism is good but this is the time for leaders to look ahead – and to take responsibility for the current state of Europe.The meeting on Tuesday also showed that a quick decision on a new European Commission president – and the other top EU jobs up for grabs – also seems unlikely.EU leaders have traditionally named the Commission head on their own, but under the Lisbon Treaty, they now have "to take account" of the European election results. But many have made clear that while Juncker may be the European Parliament’s favourite son, he does not have an “automatic” right to become the next Commission chief. Significantly, however, the Parliament must ultimately approve the next head of the EU executive.Causing alarm – and possibly triggering a long, difficult and damaging Council/Parliament battle - German Chancellor Angela Merkel recognized that while “the EPP is the strongest political force and Jean-Claude Juncker is our top candidate” the net should be cast wider to include other “suitable persons”.The spotlight now falls on European Council President Herman Van Rompuy who will consult European Parliament political groups and EU heads of government on the nomination of the Commission president. The EU summit on June 26-27 may take a final decision.European citizens need more – and better. EU leaders should start setting a new “action agenda” for the next five years. Key questions that need urgent responses include:- Is the EU ready to put growth and jobs at the centre of its policies and actions, replacing the focus on austerity?- Will there be a new push towards a full EU banking union, with centralised supervision?- Can there be a rebalancing of powers between EU and national authorities?- Can the EU continue to play an important global role despite the “little Europe”, anti-globalisation and anti-trade and protectionist manifestos of the Far Right and populist parties?- How best can the EU reconcile its skills shortages and economic need for immigration with the tough anti-foreigner and xenophobic message of the Far Right groups?- Will the EU be able to pursue a common energy policy and reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas – and develop a sensible policy towards Russia given the pro-Moscow stance taken by many of the winning populist parties?- Can a better job be done on developing a credible, positive and relevant narrative for Europe to counter the simplistic and toxic anti-EU message of the populist and anti-European parties?For all the publicity given to the populists’ surge in the polls, it is true that the pro-European centre-right and centre-left parties will still dominate the Parliament and set the agenda for Europe.It is also possibly true that the Far Right groups will be too fragmented and quarrelsome to dominate the European conversation.But while such arguments are valid, they miss the point: EU politicians have done a very poor job of engaging with citizens and listening seriously to their fears and concerns. No effort has been made to develop a strong counter-narrative to the anti-European message of the Far Right. This is the time to do so.Change is always difficult and painful. But it can no longer be avoided.

Indian elections: Gearing up for a “new” India? (Originally published 20/05/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz and Gauri Khandekar)

Expectations of change are high as Narendra Modi, leader of the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), takes charge as India’s new prime minister.Critics describe him as controversial and polarising. But with his ground-breaking outright parliamentary majority, Modi certainly has the mandate to take strong and decisive action to revive economic growth and tackle India’s many other challenges.Indian business leaders have embraced Modi as their man, seeing him as the best hope for ending paralysed government policy and bringing in more foreign investment.An impressive turnaround in the fortunes of Gujarat, the Indian state he led as chief minister since 2001 (his supporters speak of a “Gujarat model of success”), has further burnished Modi’s credentials.Still it won’t be easy. With India’s economic reform and liberalisation programme running out of steam and growth falling from 10.3 per cent in 2010 to less than 5 per cent annually, the new prime minister faces an uphill struggle to turn election pledges into effective national policies.A paradigm political shiftHe has the voters with him. Modi’s election victory is stunning, triggering a tectonic paradigm shift in Indian electoral politics. The BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), won 336 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament), with the BJP itself securing a sweeping outright majority by winning 283 seats.The impressive numbers mean that he owes his victory to Indians from every caste, class and religious background, including Muslims, many of whom appear to have set aside their suspicions about his role in the bloodletting in Gujarat in 2002. Modi has always denied any wrongdoing and the Indian Supreme Court ruled in 2010 he had no case to answer.The election also signals a radical transformation of India’s political landscape, with the long-ruling Congress Party, led by the Gandhi dynasty, winning only 44 seats, down from 209 in the previous Lok Sabha.Good times are comingDuring hundreds of rallies across the country, the BJP leader promised his voters that “good times are coming” as he vowed to promote development, revive economic growth, tackle youth employment, build a world-class infrastructure, and ensure women’s safety.The list of tasks for the incoming government is long and Modi, who campaigned on promises of “smaller government, more governance”, will have to act fast.The first priorities will be to kick-start the economy, overhaul the infrastructure sector and with 13 million young people entering the job market every year, the new Indian leader will have to act quickly to deliver on promises to create jobs.It will be a challenge. Analysts say India must create 10 million jobs a year, four times the pace of the last 5 years, to absorb youth into the workforce. Over half the country’s population is aged under 25 years.Big and boldRebooting India’s economy will require big and bold reforms on several fronts, including changes in labour laws which discourage foreign companies from setting up factories in India. Such a change is pivotal: revving up the manufacturing is essential to create more jobs, but manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of India’s economy, compared to 31 per cent in China.An overhaul of India’s tax system and better infrastructure will also help encourage foreign investors. In addition, with his focus on urbanisation, Modi has promised to build 100 new cities and construct a high-speed rail network.With 400 million Indians still living in desperate poverty and 217 million of the country’s children malnourished, enormous social challenges continue to demand attention.Much will depend on the distribution of key portfolios such as finance, external affairs, defence and interior. All eyes are also on the first budget, expected to be released in June or July, which could give clear signs on the government’s economic vision and policy priorities.Foreign policy challenges Modi spoke little about foreign policy during the election campaign, leading to speculation that a drastic shift from past policies is unlikely, not least because of the continuity provided by India’s permanent bureaucracy. Analysts concur that the government’s engagement with the outside world is expected to focus heavily on trade and investment.Pakistan has wasted no time in making overtures to the incoming prime minister. Modi has been invited to visit Pakistan but many are worried the new Indian prime minister will be hostile towards its neighbour. The optimistic view is that Modi will follow in the footsteps of the former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who was also a BJP leader but developed good relations with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s. Sharif is also Pakistan’s current prime minister. In addition, Modi’s domestic growth and jobs agenda requires stability in India’s neighbourhood.The new Indian leader will have to make up his mind on whether he wants to do business and trade with China or whether – as some of his statements have indicated – he will adopt a more assertive posture towards Beijing. The body language between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Brazil in July - likely to be one of Modi’s first overseas visits — will give a first signal of the future relationship between two of Asia’s leading powers.Modi will almost certainly pursue stronger economic ties with Japan, with an eye on expanding the flow of Japanese investments into the country. Relations with ASEAN are likely to be further consolidated as part of India’s “Look East” policy of upgrading economic ties with Asia’s rising economies.Oh, America! The greatest momentum in US-Indian relations came during the 2000s, when India was growing at rates approaching 10 per cent – but the once-thriving relationship hit stormy weather last year over allegations that a New York-based Indian diplomat, Devyani Khobragade, had committed visa fraud over the employment of a maid. The situation is made more complex by the fact that Modi is the only person ever to be banned from traveling to the US under the International Religious Freedom Act. A congressional report earlier this year said the BJP leader would qualify for a visa if he became leader. US President Barack Obama has said he looks forward to working closely with the new Indian leader to “fulfill the extraordinary promise of the US-India strategic partnership.” Modi is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September. A visit to Washington is likely to follow.Last but not least: Europe… Given the expected focus on Washington, Beijing and Pakistan, relations with the European Union (EU) are not likely to be an immediate top priority for the new government. The EU is hoping, however, that Modi will put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the much delayed EU-India Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA).“Investors from Europe are bullish about India’s growth potential and want to see New Delhi and Brussels iron out their differences over the BTIA. We hope that the new Indian Government will be able to take some hard decisions necessary to spur growth and investments,” says Sunil Prasad, Secretary-General of the Brussels-based Europe-India Chamber of Commerce (EICC).Brussels and Delhi have been trying to clinch the elusive investment deal for the last seven years. But differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights have impeded progress.The opening up of Indian’s insurance market, changes in government procurement rules and market access for automobiles as well as wines and spirits are important issues for the EU. India is insisting on more labour mobility, professional work visas and recognition as a data secure country to attract more European investments in its high tech sector.EU officials say the pact could be signed in 2015 – provided both sides summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations. A recent EU ban on imports of Indian mangoes because of phyto-sanitary concerns has injected new strains in the relationship, however.Stronger interest Beyond the BTIA, Brussels is hoping the new government will demonstrate stronger interest in developing the EU-India relations.Europe and India have much to discuss. The new government’s jobs and growth programme resonates deeply in Brussels given the EU’s own struggle to generate employment and boost economic recovery. Both sides confront the challenge of expanding economic reforms, bolstering trade and tackling regional disparities.The EU-India conversation on security and counter-terrorism has taken off as has cooperation on regulatory cooperation and data protection. Discussions on environmental protection, urbanisation and water and food security are ongoing.The challenge now is to take the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level. European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will be an important step in marking a fresh start in relations. Convening such a meeting should be a priority.

Myanmar today: Tackling the good, the bad and the ugly (Originally published 09/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

After five decades of repressive military rule, Myanmar’s political and economic transformation continues to impress. The country is preparing for milestone elections in autumn 2015, ceasefire talks have opened with ethnic groups and work begun on important constitutional changes ahead of next year’s polls. With the economy growing by 6-7 percent a year and labour costs still low, foreign investments are pouring in. Myanmar’s current chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides President Thein Sein with a further opportunity to boost the country’s regional and international profile.And yet. Initial optimism over Myanmar’s transition is beginning to wear thin. Increasing ethnic violence and civil unrest, especially in Rakhine state, among Buddhist groups and the stateless Rohingya Muslims, is a big, dark spot on Myanmar’s credentials. With thousands of Rohingya forced to live in overcrowded camps or flee by boat, beleaguered relief agencies – many of which have been forced out of the country - have warned of a humanitarian crisis in the strife-hit state.International criticism of the government’s failure to stem the violence is increasing, with 46 countries, including the United States (US), recently joining forces with the European Union (EU) at the United Nations Human Rights Council to express serious concern over the situation of the Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State. The resolution also asked for the extension of the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on Myanmar for one more year and urged an opening of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the country.Inclusive growthAdditionally, there is concern that while growth rates are high, Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most impoverished countries. Foreign partners worry that any slowdown in reform efforts in the run up to elections will make it even more difficult for the government to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.On the bright side, attracted by a growing consumer base and low-cost workforce, foreign investors are lining up to establish a foothold in Myanmar. A foreign investment law was passed in 2012 allowing some overseas firms to fully own ventures. In a bid to further open up, a Telecommunications Law was passed last year and foreign energy companies have recently been given rights to explore offshore Myanmar. The country is also slowly opening up its banking sector, with foreign banks expected to be allowed to operate independently by the end of the year. About 35 international banks already have representative offices in Myanmar.The next stage of political reform looks set to be especially challenging. The government is hoping for progress toward peace through the signature of a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with ethnic armed groups. Preliminary talks were held in Thailand at the end of January and the second round in Yangon, on March 9-10. The third round to coordinate the joint-drafting of a single nationwide document was completed on April 8, with both sides agreeing on the titles of the seven-chapter draft which will be further discussed in early May. Formal high-level peace talks to set a date for the signing of the agreement are expected to take place in Hpa-an, capital of Kayin state. Once ready, the deal will be signed by the government, parliament, the armed forces, political parties and leaders of different ethnic groups.The government has also embarked on the difficult task of amending the constitution, including article 59(f), which debars opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because of the foreign citizenship of her children and late husband. The process is proving to be more complex than anticipated, however, prompting fears the reform process is running out of steam.President Sein raised hopes earlier this year by voicing support for changing the constitution to allow “any citizen,” to run for the presidency in 2015. But preliminary non-binding recommendations issued in January by the Constitutional Review Joint Committee, a 109-member parliamentary body tasked with reviewing proposals to amend the nation’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, suggest insufficient support for this change although a greater devolution of authority to states and regions, a key demand of many ethnic groups, appears to have the green light. These recommendations will now be reviewed by a 31-member committee which will, in turn, report to the parliament.The census currently under way in the country – which also asks sensitive questions about race and ethnicity that human rights groups have repeatedly warned puts vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya (regarded by the authorities as illegal Bengali immigrants) at additional risk, is another complication. Ethnic minorities, which together make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s population, contend that they were not properly consulted ahead of the census, which requires respondents to identify themselves as one of 135 ethnic groups.Cautious ASEAN chairMyanmar joined ASEAN in 1997 and was to take the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 but was passed over amid international pressure due to its poor human rights record. Although the country now shines in the global spotlight, as current ASEAN chair, Myanmar faces a tough regional agenda, with its partners and the international community anxious about the country’s ability to host the multiple high-level meetings scheduled for the year and to keep ASEAN on course to meet its 2015 end-target for establishing a frontier-free economic community.At a time when ASEAN needs strong leadership, dealing with difficult issues such as conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines will also be a challenge. Analysts say Myanmar performed well at the first informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers held in Bagan earlier this year by steering the group to release a short statement calling on states to settle disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In comparison, two years ago, when Cambodia was ASEAN chair, the organisation split under pressure from Beijing to avoid any mention of the South China Sea.Significantly, Myanmar is also current chair of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), and as such is under strong pressure from increasingly vocal ASEAN civil society groups to adhere to the human rights commitments which are part of the ASEAN Charter.A role for Europe Despite competition from the US, China, Japan, India and others, the EU has quickly emerged as a key partner for Myanmar. EU sanctions – except on exports of weapons - were lifted in April 2013 and the country was brought into the “Everything but Arms” trade regime which provides duty free and quota access for exports from least developed states. As a result, bilateral EU-Myanmar trade is expanding rapidly, climbing up to €569 million last year, a 41% increase compared to 2012 (€403 million).EU investment in Myanmar has so far been limited as a result of sanctions. According to Myanmar’s official figures, cumulated existing EU investments amounted to some US$ 3.1 billion in 2013 (9% of Myanmar’s FDI). This is set to change, however, as investors scour the country for business opportunities and the EU and Myanmar launch negotiations on an investment protection treaty which Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said will become an important accelerator for reform in the country.“Experience has shown that improving legal certainty and predictability for investments is key in providing business opportunities and much-needed development for this growing economy,” De Gucht said during a recent visit to Myanmar. The deal is expected to provide European investors with guarantees against discrimination, expropriation without compensation and protection against unfair and inequitable treatment.EU aid to Myanmar is increasing. The EU committed €100 million of the total €150 million in assistance to the country in 2012, with the money being spent on existing education and health support schemes and for people who have been internally displaced as a result of the country's numerous ethnic conflicts. In 2013, commitments totaled €50 million covering longer-term support to trade and the private sector, ethnic peace, climate change as well as more support to civil society. EU aid to Myanmar is expected to increase by 20 percent in 2014. There is also an agreement in principle that the European Investment Bank (EIB) will extend its operations to Myanmar, with a focus on infrastructure projects including transport and energy, forestry and the opening of credit lines to selected local banks for on-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.An important balancing act The EU’s focus on economics is important. Through trade and aid, Europe can help ease poverty in the country and play a vital role in helping the government to strike the right balance between rapid economic growth and sustainable and inclusive development.Encouragingly, Europe is also keeping up the pressure on human rights in both its bilateral contacts with Myanmar and in international fora such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. Acting on different fronts, EU funds are being used to help Myanmar’s political and economic transition through government capacity-building, support for the Myanmar Human Rights Commission and the Election Commission. EU support is also being channelled to the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC), created by the government to secure peace in ethnic areas as well as to the peace process and the development of ethnic areas. In addition, ethnic groups have also received assistance to enable their participation in peace talks.As it deepens its engagement with Myanmar – and ASEAN – the EU should continue to balance its economic overtures to the country with continuing pressure on issues of human rights, good governance and the rule of law.Myanmar has come a long way in a very short time. Visionaries in the government and the region say there is no reason the country cannot fulfil its long-term ambition to become a regional powerhouse. To make the dream a reality, however, Myanmar will have to learn that economic growth and progress must be shared by all its people, human rights must be respected – and there must be a place in the country for all ethnic groups, whatever their religion.

Fashioning "Global Europe" for the 21st Century (Originally published 01/10/13)

It’s not enough to talk about the European Union's standing and influence in today’s rapidly changing world: the EU needs to thrash out a new foreign policy adapted and responsive to 21st century challenges.This is urgent.  True, EU leaders, foreign ministers and senior official often engage in bouts of hand-wringing over Europe’s “loss of influence” and declining presence on the global stage.  This is often followed by a resounding thumping of chests as everyone agrees that Europe is – after all – still an important and relevant international player.  It’s not that simple, however.Europe certainly has much to offer. The EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe.  European technology helps the world tackle climate change, urbanisation and other 21st-century challenges, European design excites fashionistas the world over and tourists flock to European cities to enjoy good food, wine and visit exquisite monuments.Europe’s ‘soft power’ resonates when it comes to peace-making and reconciliation, trade, aid and the promotion of democracy and the rule of law.  With Croatia now in and others lining up to join, the EU retains its zone of influence in the neighbourhood.  And as the Eurozone crisis gives way to recovery, however fragile, global concerns about Europe’s economic performance are easing.And yet.  There is no doubt that the EU’s star does not shine as brightly as it should in many skies.  EU-watchers who once – too optimistically – believed that the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service would lead to a more forceful EU foreign policy are disappointed.Their disappointment is even stronger when it comes to European security and defence policy.  Many believe that because it has no army, navy or air force at its command, the EU will always be a second class international actor, handing out cheques but not pro-actively influencing global events and decisions.No appetite for military actionEurope’s partners know that while governments in France and Britain may still have an appetite for military interventions in response to international crisis, their citizens – and Europeans more generally – certainly don’t. Significantly, Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy and an industrial machine that’s the envy of the planet, has made clear that it is not overly interested in taking on global responsibilities of the military kind.Germany is viewed by many as a reluctant giant which, as one newspaper recently put it, seems content to lurk in the shadows. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying that Europe must become more competitive as China and other powers rise. “The world doesn’t sleep,” she said recently. However, she hasn’t coupled that with any grand visions for a continental revival.Within Europe, the doomsayers — of which there are many — insist that the Eurozone crisis and the impact of economic stagnation on European societies have accelerated the loss of EU influence in the international arena.China, India, Russia, Brazil and others are often seen in the EU as fierce rivals who want a ‘full-scale reversal’ of their relationship with the West by demanding better representation in multilateral fora and a stronger voice in global governance. Others argue that Europe should be more assertive and more self-confident when dealing with the cheeky new kids on the bloc.It was partly to respond to such concerns that the EEAS was set up three years ago to act as an EU foreign ministry — and certainly the EU flag is now more often seen flying across the world. But in today’s competitive world of rising powers, new alliances and increased geo-strategic competition, the EEAS is still seen as under-performing.Much of the criticism is levelled at Catherine Ashton, the head of the EEAS and the EU’s de facto foreign minister. It has to be said, however, that Ashton’s role is a difficult one and constrained by the limited space she is allowed by some of the EU’s bigger member states, including Britain and France.Pressure for a more effective foreign policyThe good news is that some EU countries want to go further. The foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden argued recently that Europe needs a strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world. The famous question posed by Henry Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state, about the dialling code for Europe has, by now, by and large been answered, the ministers said.“The critical question is no longer how to reach us, but instead what Europe should say when the phone rings,” they complained, adding: “we now have the hardware of institutions in place, we need to focus on the software of policies that makes the entire thing operate in a clear and credible way.”

The ministers are right: Europe needs a new strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world than the one that existed in 2003, when Javier Solana, the former EU “high representative” for foreign and security policy, drew up the first-ever EU strategy for living in a globalised world.

Such a new blueprint for “global Europe” need not be long and complicated.  It needs to start by recognising that the world has changed dramatically in the last decade - and include recommendations for a few pivotal changes in policies and attitudes.

While the 2003 document centred on traditional security threats, the focus should now shift to  non-traditional challenges – climate change, energy and food security, maritime piracy, cyber security - which must be tackled urgently.

The EU has strong expertise and experience in all these areas.  But concerted international action on these and other issues requires that countries and organisations build new networks and alliances.  It means working with like-minded nations but above all also cooperating with non-like minded countries.  It means talking with others, not haranguing or talking down to them.  And this means a change of EU diplomatic tone and style.

Respect for emerging powers

Global competition for influence has increased as China, Russia, India and Brazil become more assertive and more vocal on the global stage.  The EU may have “strategic partnerships” with these countries, but the agreements need to be reinforced and strengthened – and the EU has to learn to treat these nations with respect and use their insight to readjust its worldview.

Working only with the big guys of the emerging world is not enough.  The new world order is being fashioned not just by China and Brazil but also by countries like Indonesia and Mexico, Kenya, Australia and organisations such as ASEAN.  The EU  needs urgently to upgrade its ties with these nations and bring them on board as  partners.

The compelling need for better global governance in today's still-chaotic multipolar world demands such cooperation.

Relations with Turkey are an albatross around the EU's neck.  They need to be repaired urgently in order to allow for real consultation on regional and global flash-points.  Europe's relations with Turkey are under close scrutiny the world over, with people questioning just why the EU remains so reluctant to open its doors to such an important regional and international actor.  The answers are not edifying.

The EU's international and moral standing are conditional on its ability to build an inclusive society which celebrates diversity instead of fearing it.  Europe cannot condemn discrimination against minorities in Pakistan and Myanmar if its own track record in dealing with such issues is not above reproach.

Democracy and human rights

Europe's values - democracy, the rule of law, human rights (to name a few) - are important and should be promoted more actively across the globe.  But those doing the promotion should do so with sensitivity and humility.  The message is too important to be drowned out by arrogance.

While often irked by EU hectoring and lecturing on human rights, many countries are anxious to learn more from Europe about regional integration, reconciliation and reform.  Europe's "soft power" lies in its ability to teach an anxious world about conflict management and peace-building.

The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who have warned that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Ironicially while the new world order demands the establishment of networks and coalitions, the EU will become a more significant power if it builds on its uniqueness as a foreign policy actor.  As such, while the transatlantic relationship is vital and important, hanging on to US coat-tails, especially when it comes to Asia, is not a good option.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership certainly has its value in terms of jobs and growth on both sides of the Atlantic but it would be unfortunate if it is seen as the West "ganging up" against the rest.  For the moment, that is how China and other Asians see it.  The EU should act urgently to correct that impression - and invest more in the outcome of the Bali ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation in December.

Civil society actorsForeign policy today is not just the exclusive preserve of diplomats. Civil society actors, social media, sports personalities, artists, academics and think tanks are now an essential part of the game.  The EU's new global outreach must include such thought-leaders.  As the Arab Spring has shown, dealing only with governments is no longer an option.As Javier Solana, the EU’s former ‘high representative’ for foreign and security policy said recently, in today’s world of flux, the nature of power is changing. Power was once measured in the size of armies and population, not in terms of GDP per capita, reputation and whether you get to host the Olympic Games.  It is also about ideas, innovation, art and culture.It is worth remembering that while military force and interventions can provoke regime change, in the end, all parties — the victorious and the defeated — have to come to the negotiating table and find political solutions. And this is something the EU and Europeans are very good at.It is often argued that further EU integration will lead to a united, coherent, and effective European foreign policy. This is true of course.  But the integration process remains slow and painful.  The need for a smarter and more forceful EU foreign policy is urgent.

Asia-Europe increase focus on security (Originally published 17/07/13)

Trade and business have long dominated Asia-Europe relations. Economic links are still vitally important in relations between the two regions. But Asian and European policymakers are also steadily stepping up their engagement on security issues.The emphasis on Asia-Europe security ties is not new – but it is becoming stronger and more visible.In both regions, there is a growing awareness that while the “Asian Century” has so far focused on strong economic growth and development, Asia also needs to tackle many difficult and potentially explosive historical enmities and complex crises.Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Europeans too are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia, not least in view of the unprecedented level of economic interdependence between the two regions.This has meant strong European Union condemnation of North Korea’s missile and nuclear activities and calls for a negotiated settlement of conflicting national territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.Last year, the European Union signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region.High-level European and Asian representatives have met in recent months in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore, which EU HRVP Ashton attended this year for the first time.Discussions on security issues are also an important part of political pillar in ASEM, the process of Asia–Europe meetings launched in 1996.“Asia still has to deal with security issues that have been settled in Europe,” says Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European Union’s External Action Service (EEAS).“We admire Asia’s economic rise. But many Asian countries still face the challenges associated with nation and state-building. They are burdened by disputes and security flashpoints which need proper handling and solutions. If left unattended, these disputes could cause trouble for everyone,” he says.As Asian governments seek to build sustainable peace and stability in the region, Europe’s experience in healing historical wounds and reconciliation can be helpful.“We are interesting partners for Asia. We do not claim to be a "model". It’s not a question of copying Europe, it’s about learning from our past, including from our own mistakes, and seeking inspiration in what may be relevant.”Conventional military threats and conflicts are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to non-traditional security threats, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Europe has the know-how to work with Asia on questions like disaster-prevention and management, climate change, pandemics, terrorism and questions linked to food, water, energy and cyber security.The EU’s “comprehensive approach” to security calls for the deployment of a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.“Europe’s experience in community and institution-building and in constructing structures for regional security is an added asset for its partners,” says Isticioaia Budura.“We have learned how to engage in preventive diplomacy, confidence-building and establishing norms and rules to ensure regional peace and stability.”Peace in Europe was a long time coming. In contrast, “Asia is in a rush…so we must find a smart way to share all relevant experiences,” he adds.ASEM provides an ideal, and “unbelievably meaningful” format for Asia-Europe exchanges on all issues of mutual interest, including security challenges, says Isticioaia Budura.“It allows us to better understand the complexity of developments in Asia… to take the pulse, take into account challenges and see how we can contribute.”Regular ASEM meetings help Asia and Europe to improve their mutual understanding, identify common interests and cooperation, he says, adding: “It is good to have Asian and European leaders talking to each other.”“In a process of globalisation which keeps accelerating, ASEM has a very distinct relevance.”Since its launch, ASEM has worked to prevent the decoupling of regions and stopping Asia and Europe from turning inwards. This is still true. “We are moving together in the same direction,” Isticioaia Budura underlines.Despite the Eurozone crisis, Europe is continuing to engage with Asia. By voicing their confidence in Europe’s economic future, Asian countries, for their part, have helped to stabilise the Euro.ASEM’s informality, large membership and flexibility mean that all countries have the freedom to bring up any issue that interests them. “Both regions can talk about their major concerns. They can choose what they see as relevant,” says Isticioaia Budura.Discussions focus on questions as diverse as disaster-prevention, non-proliferation, disarmament, human rights, energy and water management. In these and other areas, “there is a useful exchange of information and experience,” he notes.When they meet in October next year, ASEM leaders will focus on recovery, growth and jobs, Isticioaia Budura predicts.The ASEM message is also likely to be that Europe can work with Asia to build sustained peace in the region and tackle non-traditional security challenges.

EU needs stronger focus on Asian security (Originally published 01/07/13)

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s decision to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia’s premier multilateral security platform, is an important step forward in Europe’s quest for stronger engagement on security issues with Asia.The EU has so far played up its economic credentials in Asia.  Certainly, Asians value Europe as the region’s second largest trading partner and the biggest investor.That’s only part of the story, however.  As Asia faces up to a host of old and new tensions, it’s time Europe switched the focus from trade to security in its conversation with Asia.Europeans have long believed – and many Asians have argued – that the absence of “hard” military power erodes Europe’s standing in Asia.  Europe’s “soft power” was viewed as inferior to American and Chinese “hard power”.This was possibly true a decade ago.  But Asia’s remarkable rise in the 21^st Century – and China’s rapid ascendance as the region’s dominant nation - has prompted a radical reassessment of the challenges facing the region.The US “pivot” or rebalancing toward Asia responds to some of the region’s military concerns linked to China’s rise.But military threats are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to tackling non-traditional security issues, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Uneasy about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, many in Asia believe they can learn from Europe’s valuable experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Indonesia’s former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, says the “Asian Century” must be about more than dynamic economic growth rates; rising Asia must also become a region of sustained peace and stability.The point is also made strongly by Javier Solana, the EU’s former foreign and security policy chief.  As an “unfinished continent” where historical wounds have not fully healed and where reconciliation has not been achieved, Asia needs norms, rules and institutions which ensure peaceful co-existence, Solana wrote recently.Having successfully reconciled once-warring parties, Europe has a “unique toolbox on offer”, Solana says.The EU must, however, become better at projecting these special qualities and skills.Ashton did point out at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore last month that the EU’s strength lies in its ability to work on a “comprehensive” approach which includes a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.And she is right: this mix does certainly make Europe a “unique global partner for Asia on security issues.”The message was delivered again at the ARF.  It needs to be repeated and articulated with more conviction, resonance – and empathy.  Asians want to learn from Europe’s successes in regional integration and institution-building.  They do not want to hear lectures about their weaknesses.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues will require a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.It means regular participation in Asian meetings by European ministers and senior EU officials as well as constructive contributions to ways in which the ARF could move from its current focus on confidence-building to preventive diplomacy.Proposals to organise a gathering of all signatories of the ASEAN Treaty on Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the security blueprint for the region which the EU signed last year can also be pursued.The EU’s security interest in the region is not just about ensuring the safety of sea lanes and navigation in Asian waters.  Europe can help and inspire Asia as it seeks to ease historical enmities, build sustained peace and tackle non-traditional security challenges.

EU can help Pakistan’s new PM tackle tough agenda (Originally published 13/05/13)

As Pakistan’s next prime minister, Nawaz Sharif faces daunting domestic and foreign policy challenges.While attention is inevitably focused on Sharif’s relations with the United States, India and Afghanistan, the election of a new democratically elected government also opens up new avenues for stronger EU-Pakistan relations.The EU should move fast to forge stronger and more comprehensive ties with Islamabad, including the convening of a third EU-Pakistan summit to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.Landmark elections – but what happens next?The landmark elections, marking the first transfer of power between two elected civilian governments in Pakistan, give hope that 67 years after independence, democracy is finally taking root in the South Asian nation of 180 million people.The EU’s chief election observer, Michael Gahler, has noted “considerable improvements” in the conduct of the polls compared to five years ago as regards voters’ rolls, independence of the Election Commission and   media freedom.  Unlike in 2008, there were also no reports of widespread rigging or bogus polling stations.Although it’s long hide and seek with democracy may have ended for the moment, Pakistan remains a troubled and fragile state.Violence and bloodshed marred the election campaign and polling day in in many cities as the Taliban relentlessly pursued their anti-democracy agenda by targeting secular parties, sparing only former cricketer Imran Khan’s Tehreek-I-Insaf party.Pakistan’s economy is in shambles, with talks expected soon on an International Monetary Fund bail-out package.  Corruption is rampant. The army and security services continue to exert an unhealthy influence over politics and policy.  And relations with the US as well as most neighbouring countries, including India and Afghanistan, remain tense.Pakistani people deserve credit

There is more to Pakistan than violence, discrimination and economic decline, however.  For almost 7 decades marked by flawed democracy, feudal greed, military misrule and terrorism, the country has worked because of the courage and tenacity of its people, including the millions of Pakistanis who live and work abroad – and send millions of dollars in remittances – to a country they still call home.

Last week’s elections provided additional evidence of the resilience, determination and dynamism of millions of men and women who defied threats of violence, intimidation and centuries-old discrimination to cast their ballots in unprecedented numbers.No room for generalsMany millions of young Pakistanis voted for the first time.  The turnout of women voters was impressive.  An election commission spokesman said turnout had been around 60%, compared to 44 % in 2008.Sharif, an industrialist who has been prime minister twice before - his last period in office ending 14 years ago in a military coup followed by his trial and exile – has said generals have no place in politics.  He has also said he will talk to the Taliban in order to end an insurgency which has raged across the country for the last few years.His dismissal as premier in the 1990s was greeted by relief by many Pakistanis but many are hoping that Sharif has learned lessons from his last time in power.Certainly, his party has a good record on economic management.He advocates free-market economics and is likely to pursue privatization and deregulation to revive flagging growth.Formidable tasks aheadThe tasks he faces are formidable.  Public discontent over endemic corruption is rife; the economy is crippled by chronic power cuts and crumbling infrastructure.  One of Sharif’s first likely tasks will be to negotiate with the IMF for a multi-billion-dollar bailout. To raise domestic revenues, he will have to bite the bullet and increase tax collection.Sharif’s government faces the challenge of putting tense relations with the US back on an even keel. He has vowed to review Pakistan's support for America's "war on terror" but is unlikely to jeopardise 2 billion dollars in annual US aid.  Washington’s support will also be essential if Pakistan is to secure desperately needed aid from the IMF, the World Bank and other global institutions. He will also have to improve ties with Afghanistan and India.While in office the last time around, Sharif tried to make peace with India but his initiatives were opposed by the army.  There is concern that plans for stronger India-Pakistan trade relations – something that Sharif favours – could once again be jeopardised by an uncompromising army.Pakistan will have a crucial role to play in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country in 2014.Relations with Pakistan's traditional ally, China will remain strong but Beijing is worried that militant Uighur Muslims are still receiving training in Pakistan.Hold another EU-Pakistan summitThe EU should lose no time in seeking an upgrade of ties with Pakistan’s new government.  A third EU-Pakistan summit should be organised without too much delay and both sides should move quickly to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.EU foreign ministers admitted earlier this year that the so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” with Pakistan needed to be reinvigorated through early meetings with the new Pakistani ministers and senior officials, saying progress in such fora could lead to a third EU-Pakistan summit.

There is room for a strategic shift in EU-Pakistan relations from an almost-exclusively trade-focused agenda to a more holistic programme of cooperation.

It’s not just about tradeCertainly, Pakistan needs help to boost its exports to Europe and elsewhere.   The EU has already given Pakistan improved market access by introducing autonomous trade preferences following a WTO waiver.  The hope now is that Pakistan will secure access next year to the GSP Plus scheme for zero-duty, zero-quota exports to the EU.A strategic dialogue launched earlier this year between Catherine Ashton, EU foreign policy chief, and her former Pakistani colleague Hina Rabbani Khar seeks to cover cooperation in areas of trade, investment, human rights, governance, energy, education and socio economic development.The rhetoric needs to be translated into action.  To change the dynamics of the so-far relatively lukewarm EU-Pakistan relationship, the EU will have to pay more sustained attention to Pakistan.Once on the periphery of the EU’s Asia policy, Pakistan is climbing slowly up the EU’s foreign policy agenda, mainly because of the strong link with security in Afghanistan, connections between tribal areas in Pakistan and Europe’s “home grown” terrorists and persistent US and British insistence that the EU should help stabilise the country.A long engagementThe adoption by EU foreign ministers last year of a so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” aimed at boosting civilian institutions and civil society in Pakistan as well as a commitment to start a strategic dialogue with the country are recent illustrations of stronger EU interest in Pakistan.It has not always been an easy relationship, however.  Pakistan has used most of its time and energy to lobby for better market access for its textile exports and bristled at EU comments on its treatment of women and minorities.Volatile politics in Pakistan have also meant the EU has had to constantly adjust and re-adjust its approaches depending on whether the army or civilians are in power.The EU does not have America’s clout in Pakistan.  The absence of an EU role in providing military support has built up Europe’s credibility with Pakistani civil society but has also meant lack of leverage with the military.Meanwhile, strong EU-Pakistan economic ties – the EU is Pakistan's largest trading partner - have also not translated into significant political influence.The EU needs to be more innovative and creative in forging a new strategy which looks at Pakistan not merely as a developing country, requiring traditional development aid actions, but as a fragile country in transition which needs help and assistance to modernise and reform its flagging economy, reinforce weakened political institutions and to strengthen the rule of law.Work on supporting the strengthening of democratic institutions and the electoral framework with particular focus on institution building, legislative reform and voter participation will have to continue. Pakistan’s army and security services still need counter-terrorism training to tackle the insurgency and fight radicalisation.The EU and its member states are beginning to invest time and effort in crafting a multi-faceted strategy capable of responding to the multiple and complex challenges facing Pakistan.Such actions must continue and expand, with the EU also encouraging closer regional integration in South Asia.  Pakistan will continue to need support from its friends to stay on the democratic path.  Successful elections alone will not anchor democracy in Pakistan.

Democracy in Pakistan: Tough Lessons (Originally published 22/01/13)

There are two views on recent events in Pakistan. For some, Pakistan has shown its true colours as a chaotic and disorderly failed state. There were border skirmishes with India, more deadly extremist sectarian violence in an already deeply troubled province, rumours of a “soft” military coup as an unknown “Sufi cleric” and his followers demanded an end to corruption and —not to forget — another judicial demand that the prime minister be arrested on charges of graft.For others — admittedly in a minority — these and other equally strange developments were signs of a “maturing” and thriving democracy, of a people waking up to their rights as citizens and a vivid illustration of the strong independence of the judiciary.Finally a “people’s revolution”, Pakistan’s version of Egypt’s “Tahrir Square” in the streets of Islamabad, exulted some commentators. Hush, it’s another army conspiracy to derail democracy, said others.Both narratives have been expounded with equal force. They leave observers hungry for more information and less glib explanations, more facts and less fiction. However, now that the turmoil of the last few days appears to be over — at least temporarily — it’s wise to reflect on lessons learned.First, the rapid sequence of tragedy in Balochistan and farce in Islamabad hasn’t helped Pakistan’s already battered reputation.This is not just important for reasons of PR but also because Pakistan desperately needs foreign investment. No one is going to put money in a country seen to be always a mere heartbeat away from a suicide bombing, a terrorist attack or a deadly explosion.Le Monde, the influential and much-respected French newspaper, recently described Pakistan as “the sick child of South Asia,” noting in a scathing article that “there is something desperate about Pakistan”. As soon as the country shows signs of improvement, things go badly wrong, the article underlined, adding: “frankly we would love to be able to give some positive news about Pakistan … but the task is impossible.”Le Monde is not alone. Despite admirable attempts by Pakistani diplomats and others to put a positive gloss on recent developments in the country, it really is not easy to be upbeat about Pakistan.Secondly, yes, it is certainly good news that the current democratically elected civilian government looks set to complete a full five-year term. But 66 years after independence, should that be a reason for serious reflection or a cause for celebration?Third, can democracy really be reduced to the organisation and winning of elections? Yes, true, free and fair polls are crucial but shouldn’t the focus also be on what happens after the ballots are counted and the new — or old — leaders speed off in their limousines and move into their luxury houses?There is no doubt that citizens want to vote. But after the elections, they also expect good governance. They want a government that can deliver food, water and electricity. They want a roof over their heads. They want access to proper schools and hospitals and they want to work.Pakistan’s beleaguered politicians have failed the governance exams for decades and the generals who swagger in periodically have not done much better. It is important to fight corruption but equally crucial to insist on good governance and the delivery of basic services.Fourth, justice and politics do not mix. It’s heartening to see that Pakistan’s top judge has emerged as a modern-day Robin Hood. But the public probably wants justice in Pakistan to be about more than the issuing of regular arrest warrants to serving prime ministers.Fifth, the tragedy in Balochistan provides more damning proof that Pakistan must get its priorities right: the real danger comes from extremist groups which regularly foment sectarian violence and have very effectively used terrorism to destabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan. A government must provide protection for all religious groups on its territory. The inability to stop attacks on Shias, Ahmadis, Christians, Hindus — and women — represents an unacceptable failure of governance.Six, it makes no sense to start another vicious circle of Pakistan-India tensions over Kashmir or any other piece of land. Both countries have too much at stake to engage in another round of accusations and counter-accusations. The corrosive language of confrontation must be replaced by cooperation.This is important not just for Pakistan and India but also for South Asia as a whole. The region lags behind in meeting most of the anti-poverty Millennium Development Goals, its children are undernourished, women discriminated against and disease and illiteracy are rampant.Trade within the region is a mere fraction of what it should be. As Southeast Asia has illustrated, the future belongs to countries that can stop fighting and start cooperating to meet region-wide challenges. The 21st century is about building effective regional blocs, not sustaining regional animosities.Finally, as shown by the flurry of tragedies, dramas and mini dramas over the last week, the run-up to the elections is going to be a tumultuous time. There will probably be further storms in more teacups, more violence and all kinds of evil attempts to derail democracy in Pakistan.Seen from the outside, Pakistan does seem to be trapped in an unfortunate cycle of mishaps, misplaced hopes and unhappy accidents. There is general consensus that the country’s resilient, hard-working and long-suffering people deserve better than what they have ever received from soldiers or politicians. For many, the only true and uplifting narrative about Pakistan is one that speaks of the strength and fortitude of its people.

As Asians talk security, Europe cannot be on the sidelines (Originally published 09/07/12)

As senior EU policymakers get ready to attend Asia’s top security conference in Cambodia on 11-12 July, there should be no doubt: Europe and Asia need to work more actively and forcefully together.Debates on whether or not the EU should seek stronger engagement with Asian nations or be content with a marginal role in the region may be intellectually stimulating – but they are pointless.Certainly, the EU will never be a “Pacific power” and should have no ambition of becoming one. But neither can it remain passively on the side lines of developments in Asia.In an inter-dependent, globalised world where no one nation, bloc or region can claim to lead the rest, where security is about more than military spending and where nations’ are connected to each other by a dense web of trade and investments, Europe-Asia cooperation is the only option.It’s not about whether Europeans have the time, energy or interest in Asia or whether Asians think Europe is still relevant. It’s about the economy and the challenge of ensuring sustained global growth. It’s about dealing with climate change, pandemics, humanitarian disasters and poverty. It’s also about preventing tensions and conflicts which can endanger global peace and security.None of these challenges can be tackled by one nation or region on its own. Certainly US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in Phnom Penh for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to reassure Southeast Asian nations of America’s renewed commitment to the region. But, exhausted by two long-drawn wars and beset by shrill election-year domestic concerns, the US has made clear that it is no longer ready to play global policeman or global peacemaker.Despite its growing economic clout, China has never laid claim to being an international leader and is unlikely to do so in the near future. Russia’s global ambitions are not credible. India is not interested.In contrast, whether they like it or not, Europeans are expected to think and act globally, stand up for certain key universal principles, to be generous and kind to victims and get tough with bullies.For all their criticism of Europe – and despite the Eurozone crisis – even the fiercest Asian commentators recognise that Asians can learn much from Europe. Asians have never liked European “arrogance” in lecturing and hectoring them on their perceived deficits and weaknesses. But they admire much that is European including European technology, products and culture. In order to keep growing, Asians need European markets and investments.When she sits down with Hillary Clinton at the ARF meeting later this week, Catherine Ashton, the EU's chief diplomat, should remember that Asia-Europe cooperation is a necessity – although reaching out to countries in the region is not always easy.Political reform in China remains a distant dream, economic liberalisation is patchy and dissidence is met with repression. Indian democracy is messy and even as it claims Great Power status, millions of Indians live in dire poverty. ASEAN integration is slow, painful and incomplete and decision-making in the 10-nation bloc is often very complicated.But the economic reality is simple: The EU is China's biggest and ASEAN's third-biggest trading partner. It is also the largest investor in ASEAN countries with an average of 20.6% of foreign direct investment over the past three years.The EU has signed free trade agreements with South Korea and is negotiating others with India, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. An EU-ASEAN free trade agreement could be negotiated as of 2015.The recent EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting in Brunei saw the adoption of an action plan aimed at further building ties between the two regions. In Cambodia, the EU is expected to finally sign the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation which could pave the way for EU participation – one day - in the increasingly influential East Asia Summit.Without a hard military presence in Asia, the EU will never carry as much clout as the US. As they fret about China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, Vietnam and the Philippines need America’s reassuring embrace. Certainly a crisis in the South China Sea would also be disastrous for EU trade with the region. As such, Ashton’s presence at the ASEAN Regional Forum is a good signal of EU interest and concern.Europe can make other constructive contributions, especially since the basic premise of ASEAN security discussions is about building trust and confidence, preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution, issues that Europeans know a thing or two about.The ARF meeting in Cambodia will also discuss disaster management – another area of strong European expertise.In November EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso will be in Vientiane, Laos, for a summit with 19 leading Asian leaders. Barroso is also expected to attend the Bali Democracy Forum and make an official visit to Indonesia.Last year’s US “pivot” or renewed engagement with Asia has certain prompted Europe to put some new life into its lacklustre relations with the region. The challenge now is to ensure Europe’s sustained presence in Asia, in the interest of both regions.

Debate needed on EU extremism (Originally published 29/07/11)

The terrorist tragedy in Norway should spur an urgent Europe-wide debate on the challenge of countering violent extremism, whether domestic or imported.In fact, the conversation should be global. Europe is not alone in finding it difficult to build – and sustain – societies which embrace diversity. Minorities, including Christians, Hindus and Islamic minority sects, face discrimination and violence in many parts of the Muslim world. Hindu Fundamentalists are a threat to India's inter-communal peace and harmony.Events in Norway are a powerful reminder that no country can claim to be safe from terror. Also, in an inter-connected and globalised world, where people, ideas and bombs can move rapidly across borders, extremism cannot be tackled by any one country alone.Anders Behring Breivik may have been a lone, unhinged, gunman seeped in anti-Islamic sentiments picked up from Islamophobic websites in Europe and in the United States. Let’s not fool ourselves, however: the climate of hate, intolerance and xenophobia propagated by far-right parties is certainly helping create an “enabling” environment for violence by self-appointed “counter-jihadists”.The poisonous rhetoric of the extreme right is filtering into Western political mainstream. European leaders with their claims that multiculturalism has failed have not helped.A commentary by Friends of Europe trustees published earlier this year, "An 8-point strategy to revitalize the EU",  underlined the need for EU institutions together with EU member governments to challenge populist parties more forcefully, not pander to them.“Instead of implicitly accepting the far-right rhetoric against immigrants and multiculturalism, EU political leaders at all levels must develop a convincing counter-narrative to the deceptively simple anti-European rhetoric of the far right, and place closer integration far higher on the political agenda,” the commentary said.“Europe must continue to be a place which welcomes immigrants who are needed to ensure the sustainability of our welfare systems, and the dynamism of our economies,” it added.Cecilia Malmstrom, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, is among the small number of EU policymakers who has expressed concern at the rise of far-right parties in Europe and their success in spreading fear of Islam.“This creates a very negative environment, and sadly there are too few leaders today who stand up for diversity and for the importance of having open, democratic, and tolerant societies where everybody is welcome," Malmstrom said in a post on her blog.Ask Sajjad Karim, the British Muslim member of European Parliament who has seen his house surrounded by 40 demonstrators of the English Defence League which says it is against “radical Islam”. The Conservative MEP has said he believes they wanted to intimidate him, his wife and young daughter as they are Muslim, "MEP Sajjad Karim 'threatened' over EDL protest by home".The EU and the US, among others, are engaged in active discussions on countering radicalization. Their focus, however, is mainly on “Islamist” groups, especially so-called “home-grown” American and European radicals of Muslim descent (or Muslim converts) who risk being recruited by Al Qaeda.The danger from Al Qaeda remains. However, a stronger focus is required on inconvenient truths which are much too often swept under the carpet: the rise in many parts of the world of groups and organizations which fuel hatred and violence on religious, ethnic and cultural grounds.The counter-narrative to the toxic anti-immigrant rants of the European far right requires a cool-headed separation of fact from fiction. It is easy – but wrong – to blame Europe’s economic troubles on immigrants. It is simple – but false – to argue that all Muslims are misfits, potential terrorists and marginalized outsiders who cannot speak local languages and adhere to orthodox views.Many Europeans are clearly tempted to find scapegoats at a time of unease and uncertainty over Europe’s economic future, the perceived threat posed by globalization and Europe’s place in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world.But if Europe is to meet the many challenges of the 21st Century, its leaders must be able to counter the simple ideology of hate being peddled by the far-right.The truth is more upbeat than the far-right would have us believe: Europe is a vibrant and dynamic mix of people of many faiths, beliefs, cultures, languages and traditions. Instead of denouncing it as a problem, Europeans should celebrate the diversity of their societies.

ASEM to discuss non-traditional security threats (Originally published 01/06/11)

Asia Europe Meetings meetings have so far focused on traditional threats to global and regional security, including the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programes, the Arab-Israel conflict and the situation in Afghanistan.But while world peace is still threatened by inter-state wars and military conflicts, competition for access to food and energy resources, water disputes, health pandemics and terrorism are emerging as equally potent threats to global security.They are also becoming increasingly central to the evolving international security agenda.“Non-traditional” security challenges are not new. In a rapidly globalizing and interdependent world, however, their impact can be felt not only within countries but also on a regional and international level.They spread fast – and if left to fester, can cause enormous societal havoc and regional and global tensions.ASEM foreign ministers’ discussions in Budapest on June 6-7, on “non-traditional” security issuesare therefore a good step forward in fostering stronger Asia-Europe engagement on tackling key 21stCentury challenges.Hungary, the current presidency of the 27-nation European Union and host of the ASEM meeting, has said foreign ministers will look at questions like energy security, food security, water security and supply, climate change, terrorism as well as disaster preparedness and management.In an increasingly interconnected world, made smaller through increased trade and improved technology, unilateral action cannot effectively deal with these new challenges. Multilateral responses, including within the ASEM framework, are therefore important.As a platform for informal exchange and discussion, ASEM is ideally suited to explore the nature, scope and fall-out of the new security challenges. ASEM also allowsthe sharing of experiences and expertise on possible solutions and coping mechanisms.The new, non-military security threats share some common features: they are transnational (that is neither purely domestic nor purely inter-state), emerge quickly and spread rapidly – within countries and on the regional and global levels.In addition to their impact on people, they can also have a far-reaching economic impact – on individual countries and on the global stage.The SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2002, the “Avian flu” in 2007 as well as HIV/AIDS are examples of how quickly diseases can spread in an era of rapid inter-continental travel, prompting not only human tragedy but also devastating countries’ health sectors and economies.Asian countries are aware that the region’s recurring problem of haze caused by environmental pollution and forest fires can exact a very high price in terms of human security as well as cause damage to health systems and the economy.Today, rising food prices are increasing inflationary pressures in many parts of the world while also stirring social unrest and impacting on progress made so far in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Asian and European countries have some experience in joint action to tackle food security, disaster response, piracy at sea and terrorism.Rising food prices were discussed at an ASEM meeting held in Hanoi last month.At the ASEM 8 summit last year, leaders agreed to an increased sharing of intelligence to track down and stop the funding of piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and stressed the need to prosecute suspected pirates.They also asked countries to criminalize piracy and armed robbery at sea in national legislations.The EUNAVFOR Atalanta mission, launched in December 2008 and counting up to 12 ships and patrol aircraft supplied by Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, as well as non-EU member Norway, patrols the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin waters in conjunction with other anti-piracy missions operated by NATO and several Asian countries.ASEM experts on counter-terrorism and disaster-management meet regularly.However, more work is needed to identify and prioritise the new dangers, select institutions for responding to the expanding security agenda and work out linkages between traditional and non-traditional threats.Addressing human security issues will require that solutions are people-based, multilateral, and involve government, business and civil society.By providing an example of such multilateral cooperation, ASEM can help craft a new 21st Century global security agenda.

No time to waste in stopping Syrian violence (Originally published 20/04/11)

Syria’s decision to lift the 48-year old state of emergency should not stop the European Union from pressing for more change and reform in the country. President Bashar al-Assad must be warned to halt any more action by security forces against protestors, whether in Homs, Deraa, Damascus or elsewhere.

There is no time to waste. It is still not clear if the lifting of the state of emergency will quell protests. But since protestors are now demanding wide-spread change and reform, it is likely to be a question of too little, too late.

Quick action is needed not just to enhance Europe’s battered credibility as a foreign policy actor and ensure stability in Syria, a key regional power. After Libya, it is about making sure that another Arab awakening does not descend into tragic violence.

The Syrian Interior Ministry’s ominous warning to protestors that there is “no more room for leniency or tolerance” has to be taken seriously. Europe cannot sit back and allow a repeat of the Hama massacre of 1982 when 20,000 civilians were killed by Syrian security forces.

This time lack of European leverage in the Middle East cannot be used as an argument. The EU is not without clout in Damascus. Syria, unlike Egypt and Tunisia, is not an ally of the United States. It is part of the EU’s neighbourhood policy, a recipient of EU aid and trade concessions.

The EU is Syria's largest trade partner with total trade amounting to approximately €5.4 billion in 2009, covering 23.1% of Syrian trade. Brussels and Syria are close to signing an association agreement. It’s now time to use that leverage.

Reports from Syria indicate that at least 18 protesters have died in clashes since President Assad on April 16 ordered a newly-appointed cabinet to make changes to defuse dissent. Anti-government protesters have held demonstrations for the past five weeks and clashed with Syrian security forces on Fridays after the weekly Muslim prayers. At least 130 people have been killed in the unrest that started in mid-March, according to Human Rights Watch.

The turmoil poses a serious challenge to Assad, who inherited power from his father 11 years ago. The regime has responded to the protests by blaming foreign conspirators.

Given the risk of more violence and killings, Europe must take the lead in demanding change and reform in Syria. EU foreign ministers’ call earlier this month for an immediate end to the use of force by security forces against peaceful demonstrators should be followed up by forceful action – trade and aid sanctions, visa restrictions, financial assets freeze – if there is no satisfactory response.

The European Parliament is right to demand a suspension of talks on a future Association Agreement with Syria until Damascus agrees to carry out “expected tangible democratic reforms.”

The resignation of Syria's government on March 29 "will not be enough to satisfy the growing frustrations of the people", the Parliament’s resolution said, adding that in addition to lifting the state of emergency, President Assad must put an end to repression of political opposition and human right defenders and undertake genuine political, economic and social reforms.

The Parliament has also called for independent investigation into the attacks on protesters and an end to arms sales to Syria.

EU foreign ministers have been more cautious but said they could “review policy” if the situation does not improve. Recent events are proof that the EU needs to get much tougher in its message to the Syrians.

EU unity needed on Libya (Originally published 10/03/11)

European Union governments must not break ranks over how to end the prolonged crisis in Libya. They must also urgently agree on a new blueprint for stronger engagement with Egypt and Tunisia.Discord at the EU summit on March 11 or other meetings in the coming weeks will send a message of weakness and lack of resolve to Colonel Gaddafi, emboldening his supporters as they step up the offensive against rebels seeking his removal.Given the difficulties in getting a complete picture of the quickly changing situation in Libya – and different national concerns of the 27 EU states – Europe is not alone in struggling to find a coherent policy on Libya. The US is similarly divided on how best to tackle a very complex situation.European governments have imposed sanctions on Gaddafi and his family and sent millions of euros in humanitarian aid to refugees seeking to leave Libya. They remain rightfully wary of direct intervention, fearing entanglement in another prolonged war in the Middle East.In recent days, however, EU unity appears to be unravelling as member states set off in different directions.France has recognised the Libyan rebels as the country’s rightful representatives. The European Parliament says other European governments should do the same. Portugal, however, has held talks with an envoy despatched by Gaddafi, prompting Britain and German to insist that EU governments show pledge not to work or co-operate with Gaddafi. There is no EU agreement on setting up a no-fly zone although the UK and France are most clearly in favour of such a move.EU governments clearly need time to assess, reflect and consult on the right actions to take on Libya.  But while they do so, they should avoid sending mixed signals to Gaddafi and his supporters.Urgent action is also needed on a new EU strategy for Egypt and Tunisia as well as other countries in the region.EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton has prepared a paper for the EU summit including measures that include more EU financial support, through the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developmnent, help with the training and exchange of students, the emergence of a vibrant civil society, more inclusive governance. Food security, further trade opening and mobility partnerships form part of the overall package.Ashton’s approach may be too modest and cautious for some but this is not the time to quibble over details. These can be worked out later, in cooperation with the new emerging leadership in these countries.Events in North Africa and the Middle East undoubtedly represent an enormous challenge for the EU. Oil prices are rising and there is concern about the number of North Africans seeking asylum in Italy and other southern European countries.Europe’s global reputation is also at stake. How Europe responds to events in the south will determine how it is perceived not only by its immediate neighbours but by EU-watchers in many other parts of the world.

Finally, some EU action on Libya (Originally published 03/03/11)

Belated EU unity has been found on sanctions against Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and his family, the EU has earmarked ten million euros in humanitarian aid to refugees stranded on Libya’s borders with Tunisia and Egypt while Britain and France are creating an air and sea bridge to take some of the Egyptian refugees back to their homes.Europe now also needs a new strategy to deal with the influx of North African refugees arriving on its shores. This is not the moment for hand-wringing over the large number of new arrivals, irresponsible talk of an “invasion” from the south or laments over the failure of multiculturalism in Europe. Urgent and intelligent measures are needed to help southern European countries provide better treatment to the new arrivals. This means more EU assistance for Italy and other southern European states and a quick agreement on a share-out of the refugees.The EU’s humanitarian operations are laudable but Europe has acquired an unfavourable reputation worldwide for the cold welcome it extends to many foreigners. Strict Schengen visa requirements hit foreign business leaders, students and artists. This is a chance to prove that “Fortress Europe” can open its doors to those in trouble. It is also about being a good neighbour.Clearly, the Italian government – and others like Malta, Greece and Spain – cannot be left alone to deal with the problem. Italy’s Interior Minister Roberto Maroni says his country could soon find itself “on its knees” if the refugee “invasion” continues. He has asked for a solidarity fund to assist countries that are the first to absorb the influx of refugees. However, not for the first time, EU states are divided.Meanwhile, Mustapha Nabli, Tunisia's newly appointed central bank governor, says that instead of crumbling under pressure, Europe could in fact benefit from the wave of new workers. “So it is a positive sum game, it is not a negative sum game,” he says.It’s a point worth making – but one that is unlikely to find an echo in today’s Europe. In remarks that have reverberated across the world, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Sarkozy have said Europe's experience in building a multicultural society has been a failure.The three EU leaders are right to question the bloc's patchy history of integration. But they make no constructive suggestions to improve the situation. And they put the onus on immigrants to melt in or get out. However, European governments have not done enough to embrace and promote diversity, enforce anti-discrimination legislation and create a more inclusive labour market.The reality of multicultural Europe is less gloomy than Merkel and others claim. True, some young Muslims fall prey to radical ideologies while others demand special privileges, including the establishment of faith-based schools, permission to wear the burka and segregation by gender at public swimming pools and hospitals. Tribal customs prevail in some communities.However, across Europe, Muslims and other minorities are becoming more active in demanding rights, organizing themselves into pressure groups, and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural and sports icons. This new generation of European Muslims believes it important to focus on citizenship and integration rather than on religious identity alone.The irony is that while politicians fret about immigration and foreigners, low fertility rates and an ageing population mean that Europe needs young foreign workers to fill labor shortages in both the skilled and unskilled sectors of the economy and to fund Europe's creaking pension and health care systems.It’s easy to consider tough new frontier controls, repatriation schemes and other measures to keep out North Africa’s refugees. But EU policymakers should also focus on job-generating investments in the region, come up with a more intelligent common immigration policy and possibly seek changes to the Dublin Convention to ease current pressure on first-arrival border states.EU leaders speak loudly and often about projecting European values of democracy and human rights. It’s worth remembering the people of North Africa are voicing these very aspirations.

EU SHOULD BUILD A REAL “RING OF FRIENDS” IN THE SOUTHERN MED (Originally published 23/02/11)

To create a real “ring of friends” in Europe’s neighbourhood, the EU should stop dithering and act quickly to help meet peoples’ aspirations in North Africa and the Middle East.Lecturing Gaddafi on human rights or fretting over immigration from the region – as EU foreign ministers did earlier this week - is not good enough. As his long rant on Libyan TV illustrated, Muammar Gaddafi is not listening. The EU’s focus should be on urgent, bold international action to stop the massacre in Libya. Innocent lives depend on it – and so does the EU’s much-damaged credibility in the region.It’s not too late: Europeans can throw their weight behind existing initiatives such as appeals by Libya's deputy ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim al-Dabashi, for international intervention in the country, including the establishment of a no-fly zone to help stop "a real genocide". Former British foreign secretary David Owen wants a UN Charter Chapter 7 intervention - meaning the authorisation of both military and non-military means to “restore international peace and security” – to be enforced by NATO air forces. UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon has warned, meanwhile, that the killing of civilians is “a serious violation of international humanitarian law”, opening the way for action in the International Criminal Court.European countries, having supplied Libya with weapons that are now being used for internal repression, have a special responsibility to make sure the killing stops. It is also a question of acting on the “right to protect” principle espoused by Europe.Elsewhere in the volatile region, visits to Tunisia and Egypt by senior EU and national policymakers are useful in establishing contact with both countries’ transitional authorities. Consultation with the US, World Bank and others is also helpful in forging a coordinated new international blueprint for the region.But actions speak louder than words. Moaning about the danger of increased immigration flows, the threat of extremists on Europe’s borders and other recent comments made, among others, by Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, reinforce the increasing perception worldwide that Europe is inward-looking and fearful of change. They also reveal a striking lack of understanding of events in the region.To start off, the EU should ditch the discredited “Mediterranean Union” dreamed up by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The blueprint is timid, technical and out-dated. The EU focus should now be on further opening up its market to southern Mediterranean exports, including farm products, making job-generating investments in the region and unleashing the potential and energy of the much-trammeled private sector. Among other things, such schemes will help stop the desperate human tide into southern Spain and Italy.The outlines of a new strategy – minus any reference to bigger trade benefits or increased aid for the region – are included in the statement released by foreign ministers on February 21. However, the focus needs to move from the backing of personalities and the military to the building of institutions, ensuring the rule of law, and strengthening the judicial system. Support for civil society, which Middle East governments have always opposed, should be reinforced and the fight against corruption emphasized. The EU can also share its experience in regional integration.Many of these ideas have been tried in the past – and failed because of lack of support from wary governments in the region. Hopefully, the changing landscape in North Africa and the Middle East means Europe will soon be able to engage with more credible and accountable state authorities as well as entrepreneurs and civil society representatives who are ready to embrace change.The EU has experience in promoting economic and political reform in eastern Europe – it should now be ready to give similar support and advice to its neighbours in the south.