View from Abroad: Europeans challenge Germany on austerity (Originally published 11/10/2014 at dawn.com)

With apologies to Jane Austen, it’s (also) a truth universally acknowledged that Germany is Europe’s undisputed leader. Its powerful economy, large population, mostly stable politics and mostly responsible politicians assure that Berlin looms large over the European Union landscape.Nothing happens in the EU without Germany’s blessing. For years that was a good thing. It isn’t any longer.Whisper it softly but Germany’s EU partners are getting a little fed up with Berlin’s writ. This is especially the case when it comes to agreement on how best to bring economic growth back into the flagging 28 EU economies.Germany’s focus on austerity is coming under harsh criticism — some of it veiled, some of it open — for jeopardising Europe’s economic recovery.Disaffection with Germany is spreading beyond economics. EU insiders complain in private at Berlin’s growing influence in key EU institutions, its ability to grab some very senior EU jobs for its nationals or close friends and its newly-found assertiveness in areas such as foreign and security policy.Europeans liked a Germany that always said “yes”, kept trying to atone for its role in the two World Wars and opened its wallet whenever others in the EU needed help.Linked up with former adversary France, Germany was the “locomotive” that kept the EU moving up and forward, through economic and monetary, the negotiation and implementation of different constitutional treaties and kept the flame burning on issues like further European integration.It’s different now. Germany is doing all that and more. And its EU partners like it less and less.What went wrong? In fact, the economy. Ever since the Eurozone crisis reared its ugly head, Germany as the bloc’s healthiest economy, has been calling the shots, insisting that governments across the bloc must tighten their belts, cut spending and talk and walk austerity.The tide is changing, however. Across Europe, national leaders, policymakers and economists are starting to challenge Germany’s insistence on budget austerity as a precondition to healthy growth.France is in, what some observers refer to as, an “open revolt” against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s continued demands for deficit reduction in the face of slowing growth.Italy has warned against too rigidly following Germany’s preferred approach. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and IMF head Christine Lagarde are also pushing for Germany to loosen up.Critics of austerity say that more government spending would increase demand for goods and services in Europe and help avert a dangerous fall into deflation, a downward spiral in wages and prices that can cripple an economy for years.Proponents of austerity, which include the Dutch, Austrians and Scandinavians and the three Baltic states, say that governments that fail to get their budget deficits and accumulated debt under control risk losing the ability to borrow at affordable rates in the bond markets and sowing the seeds of financial instability.The debate is unusually “philosophical”, not just economic, say observers. Warning against an escalation of mutual recriminations, the respected former Italian prime minister Mario Monti said the divergences of policy revealed divergences of “national cultures”.Matteo Renzi, the current Italian Premier, has said more bluntly that Berlin has no right to lecture its partners, urging Berlin — and the European Commission which now vets national budgets — to show more understanding for countries with no growth and high unemployment.French Prime Minister Manuel Vall, meanwhile, has unveiled a “no-austerity budget” designed to cut the deficit more slowly than austerity advocates would like.Monti has especially urged the EU (and Berlin) to consider more favourable treatment for public investments within existing rules.Critics of Germany point out that while Berlin is keeping the eurozone in fiscal chains, the United States has loosened the reins — and that thanks to fiscal stimulus, the American economy is starting to grow.At least for the moment, Berlin appears unwilling to deviate from its plan. But change may be around the corner. After all, while she is still very popular in her ninth year in power, Merkel is also under fire at home.In a new book, The Germany Illusion, one of the country’s leading economists, Marcel Fratzscher, takes the government to task for declining to invest in infrastructure and failing to encourage private investment or foster a modern service sector that would yield better pay and thus fuel higher consumer spending.Perhaps, Germany may finally listen. Latest forecasts spotlight a slowdown in the German economy, with economists underlining that the last thing the faltering European economy needs is a sudden downturn in Germany.But others argue that a bout of German weakness may be precisely what is required to convince Merkel to loosen the fiscal reins at home and provide Europe with a dose of stimulus that struggling states like France and Italy have long been seeking.If she does that, Europeans may once again rediscover their earlier respect for Merkel. Unlike the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Merkel, as the ‘Iron Lady’ in charge of the future of both Germany and Europe, should not be afraid of “turning”.

View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)

The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.

APPOINTMENT OF FIRST EU ENVOY TO ASEAN WILL BOOST TIES (Originally published 25/09/14)

The European Union’s decision to appoint a special ambassador accredited to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a welcome and long-awaited step forward in the EU’s relations with one of the world’s most dynamic and rapidly-growing regions.As a statement by the European External Action Service, the EU’s “foreign ministry”, underlined, the “important decision” reflects Europe’s growing engagement with ASEAN and an ambition to upgrade the existing partnership with the Southeast Asian grouping to a strategic one.The move also underscores the hard work put in by ASEAN members in drawing EU attention to the region over the last four years. Friends of Europe has been a strong advocate of closer and stronger EU-ASEAN relations.The new EU envoy could make an important contribution to injecting some much-needed momentum into what – until four years ago – was still a lacklustre and uninspiring relationship.Good progress has been made in recent years. However, building a solid, sustainable and strategic EU-ASEAN relationship will remain a challenge, demanding a strong effort by both regions. Certainly both sides see an interest in forging closer ties. Bilateral EU-ASEAN trade and investment flows are booming. Europe and ASEAN need each other’s’ markets to grow and thrive.But in addition to the global challenges they need to tackle, Asian and European countries face difficult tasks both at home and in their respective regions. Still grappling with slowing economic growth and unacceptably-high youth unemployment rates, Europe’s urgent foreign policy priority is to thrash out a new “beyond sanctions” strategy for dealing with an increasingly volatile and assertive Russia.European countries are also under pressure to join America’s campaign to “destroy and degrade” the so-called “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria.ASEAN states, meanwhile, are struggling to meet their goal of forging a border-free single ASEAN market by end-2015. On the foreign policy front, they are engaged in a delicate balancing act to maintain good relations with the three Asian behemoths: China, Japan and India.Still the omens are good. Coming only a few weeks before the mega Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan on October 16, the EU announcement on the special envoy to ASEAN sends a strong and reassuring message of continuing EU engagement with Asia in the years ahead.ASEM will bring together 53 Asian (including ASEAN) and European partners for a two day summit focusing on the key security, economic and political challenges facing both regions.Significantly, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Japan’s Shinzo Abe and key ASEAN leaders will be attending the meeting as will Italian Premier Matteo Renzi and the EU’s top officials, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso. For both men it will be the last ASEM gathering before the change of EU leadership in November.Asian and European business leaders, parliamentarians, academics and journalists as well as civil society actors will also be gathering in Milan around the same time in separate but inter-connected fora.In another sign that Europe intends to stay engaged with Asian states despite the fires burning in its neighbourhood, the incoming EU foreign policy chief, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, has gone out of her way in recent weeks to highlight Europe’s sustained interest in Asia, including ASEAN.Mogherini’s focus on Asia is important and reassuring. Her predecessor Catherine Ashton was roundly criticised by ASEAN governments for paying only sporadic and cursory attention to their region. She managed to get relations back on track – but it was touch and go at moments.Mogherini is expected to be more attentive. And under the new structures being designed by incoming European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU foreign policy chief will be working in close cooperation with her colleagues who deal with trade, development aid, humanitarian affairs and climate change to forge a coherent conversation with Asia. Closer coordination with EU capitals is also expected.This is good news. Both the EU and ASEAN have worked hard over the last four years - in Brussels and in the different European and Southeast Asian capitals - to make their relationship more credible and relevant.It’s often been long and laborious. Human rights issues as well as relations with the former military junta in Myanmar cast a dark, unpleasant shadow over relations even as trade and investment flows continued to expand.Political reforms in Myanmar as well as ASEAN’s economic dynamism and newfound interest in developing an impressive - albeit still modest - human rights agenda, have helped to turn the relationship around.Looking ahead, for the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal. The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others. ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.The appointment of the new EU envoy to ASEAN could help unlock the EU membership of EAS in the coming years. ASEAN is also looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner” and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.At the same time, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. The outgoing EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. It’s still not clear if his successor Cecilia Malmstrom will be equally interested in such a deal.Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Significantly, the EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October. The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity. The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.A conversation on maritime security has also been initiated.These and other EU-ASEAN ventures should expand and deepen once the new – and yet to be named - EU envoy to the grouping begins working in Jakarta. Europe and ASEAN have come a long way in making their partnership more relevant in a rapidly-changing world. Both sides must maintain the momentum despite domestic and regional distractions.

View from abroad: Why Cold War is back — sort of (Originally published 06/09/2014)

IN case you haven’t noticed there’s a new swagger to Nato, the 28-nation Western military alliance that many thought had outlived its usefulness with the end of the Cold War.Well, guess what, the Cold War is back — sort of — and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is once again in the international spotlight. No longer viewed as another has-been institution, a relic of the past, Nato is now universally recognised as a crucially important alliance to ward off threats from Russia, which threatens Europe’s security from the east, and the nasty “Islamic State” on Europe’s southern flank.It’s quite a turn-around for an organisation which many had given up as irrelevant and out-of-step with a deeply connected, inter-dependent and post-modern world. Leaders were supposed to be nice to each other, sign treaties of amity and cooperation, invest in each other’s economies and give up on wars and conflict.The talk was of “peace dividends”, turning guns into ploughs, the victory of democracy and the rule of law and a commitment to maintaining a liberal international order.Nato talked of “partnerships for peace”, extended a hand of friendship to Russia and to other former foes, countries which were once part of the Soviet Union.No longer. First, for all its economic networks and interdependence, flourishing of global trade and just generally, of globalisation, the world is proving to be a volatile, disorderly and unpredictable place.Suddenly, the future is not that bright or that secure. Far from witnessing the “end of history” as predicted by Francis Fukuyama in the euphoric period following the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, we are entering an “age of anxiety”.Mostly — but not only — this is due to President Vladimir Putin’s recent upending of the post-World War security order in Europe through his actions in Ukraine, starting with the seizure of Crimea five months ago and the subsequent destabilisation of other parts of the country.Russia’s actions and the outrage they have prompted across Europe and the US have undoubtedly given Nato new lease of life. The alliance’s summit held in Wales last week is proof that far from being relegated to the dustbin of history, Nato is back — possibly even with a bang.Or is it? While Nato’s rhetoric on Russia is strong and impressive, it’s far from certain that actions will match words. Take the decision to deploy a new and potentially significant Rapid Reaction Force to deter any further aggression by Russia against its neighbours.The Force would be ready to be deployed within days should there be any military aggression against one of the 28 N ato member nations. The military unit, numbering 4,000 troops, would be on high alert at all times, with additional logistical support stations set up in Eastern European statesThe decision is being hailed as an example of a new and more determined Nato but it falls short of the call by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk for the alliance put 10,000 troops in Poland.And there are fears that Nato member states won’t be able to find the funds to finance the Force.The problem is that not only is the alliance divided on how best to react to an increasingly aggressive Russia but defence spending in almost all member nations remains under two per cent of GDP, the goal set by Nato. Overall, Nato military budgets have shrunk by 20 per cent over the past five years, while Russia’s budget has risen by half.Also, Nato has tried to organise rapid-reaction forces in the past, with disappointing results. It first announced it would create a Nato Response Force in 2002, with as many as 13,000 troops. But it took two years to get the unit up and running. Even today, the force needs about 30 days to mobilise. Until this year, it had deployed only once, in 2005, to provide earthquake relief to Pakistan.Meanwhile, many Nato members in Europe have been deeply reluctant to challenge Russia — both for fear of spurring a wider conflict and because of domestic economic problems which could be exacerbated by a confrontation.But the 65-year-old alliance’s worries aren’t limited to Eastern Europe. IS, the terror group that has declared an independent state in Iraq and Syria in recent months, is threatening to send violent European “foreign fighters” to Nato members’ streets.Insiders say Britain is likely to join the US in airstrikes against Islamic State as public anger grows over the execution of Western hostages.Also as Nato troops prepare to depart at the end of the year, Afghanistan represents another headache. Nato officials say Afghans are now responsible for almost 100 per cent of their country’s security. But Nato has said it will remain committed to Kabul through the Nato-Afghanistan Enduring Partnership signed in 2010 and the Resolute Support mission to “train, advise and assist” Afghan forces.In addition, Nato is being challenged by Moscow to react to a new breed of “hybrid war”, a term used to describe Russia’s use of a broad range of hostile actions — including military force — to spur unrest.The Nato summit in Wales may not have been the “most momentous” in the alliance’s history as some predicted. But it does mean that Norway’s former prime minister Jens Stoltenberg who will be taking over as Nato Secretary General on October 1 will be inheriting a very different alliance than the one led by Anders Fogh Rasmussen over the last five years.

Why Global Europe must change in an “anxious age” (Originally published 04/09/2014)

Federica Mogherini’s appointment as the new European Union foreign policy chief offers an opportunity for an overhaul of EU foreign and security policy. With many EU leaders, ministers and senior officials slow to respond to world events given Europe’s traditionally long summer break, the 2014 summer of death and violence has left the reputation of “Global Europe” in tatters, highlighting the EU’s apparent disconnect from the bleak reality surrounding it. When she takes charge in November along with other members of the new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, Mogherini’s first priority must be to restore Europe’s credibility in an increasingly volatile and chaotic global landscape.It cannot be business as usual. A strategic rethink of Europe’s global outreach is urgent. Europe can no longer pretend that it is not – or only mildly – shaken by events on its doorstep. In a world where many countries are wracked by war, terrorism and extremism, EU foreign policy cannot afford to be ad hoc, reactive and haphazard. Given their different national interests and histories, European governments are unlikely to ever speak with “one voice” on foreign policy. But they can and should strive to share a coherent, common, strategic reflection and vision of Europe’s future in an uncertain and anxious world.Changing gears is going to be tough. Many of Europe’s key beliefs in the use of soft power, a reliance on effective multilateralism, the rule of law and a liberal world order are being shredded by governments and non-state actors alike. With emerging nations, especially in Asia, gaining increased economic and political clout, Europe has been losing global power and influence for almost a decade. Despite pleas by NATO and the crisis in Ukraine, most European governments remain reluctant to increase military and defence spending. At the same time, the Eurozone crisis and Europe’s plodding economic recovery with unacceptably high unemployment continue to erode public support for the EU both at home and abroad. Populist far-right and extreme-left groups in Europe – including in the European Parliament – preach a protectionist and inward-looking agenda. Most significantly, EU national governments are becoming ever greedier in seeking to renationalise important chunks of what is still called Europe’s “common foreign and security policy.”To prove her critics wrong - and demonstrate foreign policy expertise and flair despite only a six-month stint as Italy’s foreign minister - Mogherini will have to hit the ground running. Her performance at the European Parliament on September 2, including an adamant rejection of charges of being “pro-Russian”, appears to have been impressive. Admirers point out that she is a hard-working team player, who reads her briefs carefully and speaks fluent English and French in addition to her native Italian. These qualities should stand her in good stead as she manages the unwieldy European External Action Service (EEAS), plays the role of vice president of the European Commission, chairs EU foreign ministerial meetings, chats up foreign counterparts and travels around the world while also – hopefully – spearheading a strategic review of Europe’s global interests and priorities.The tasks ahead are certainly daunting. There is need for reflection and action on several fronts – all at the same time. Eleven years after the then EU High Representative Javier Solana drew up the much-lauded European Security Strategy (partially revised in 2008), Europe needs to reassess the regional and global security environment, reset its aims and ambitions and define a new agenda for action. But this much-needed policy overhaul to tackle new and evolving challenges must go hand-in-hand with quick fire-fighting measures to deal with immediate regional and global flashpoints.The world in 2014 is complex and complicated, multi-polar, disorderly and unpredictable. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have up-ended the post-World War security order in Europe. The so-called “Islamic State” is spreading its hateful ideology through murder and assassination in Syria and Iraq, not too far from Europe’s borders. A fragile Middle East truce is no guarantee of real peace between Israelis and Palestinians. These and other complex problems require multi-faceted responses.The days of one-size-fits-all foreign policy are well and truly over. In an inter-connected and interdependent world, foreign policy means working with friends but also with enemies, with like-minded nations and those which are non-like-minded, with competitors and allies. It’s fine to pay special attention to China, India and other headline-grabbing big countries but it could be self-defeating to ignore the significance and clout of Indonesia, Mexico and other middle or even small powers. Upgrading ties with the US remains crucial. While relations with states and governments are important they must go hand-in-hand with contacts with business leaders, civil society actors and young people. Finally, Europe needs to acquire a less simplistic and more sophisticated understanding of Islam and its Muslim neighbours, including Turkey, which has been left in uncertainty about EU membership for more than fifty years.Europe’s response to the new world must include a smart mix of brain and brawn, soft and hard power, carrots and sticks. Isolation and sanctions can’t work on their own but neither can a foreign policy based only on feel-good incentives. The EU’s existing foreign policy tools need to be sharpened but European policymakers also need to sharpen and update their view of the world. Mogherini’s youth and hopefully fresh stance on some of these issues could be an asset in this exercise. Importantly, Mogherini must work in close cooperation and consultation with other EU institutions, including the European Parliament and especially the European Commission whose many departments, including enlargement issues, trade, humanitarian affairs, environment, energy and development are crucial components of Global Europe. The failure of synergies among Commission departments is believed to be at least partly responsible for the weaknesses of the EU’s “Neighbourhood Policy”. Also, a coherent EU foreign policy demands close coordination with EU capitals. Recent experience shows that, as in the case of negotiations with Iran, the EU is most effective when the foreign policy chief works in tandem with EU member states. Closer contacts with NATO will also be vital if Europe is to forge a credible strategy vis-àvis Russia and Ukraine. Such cooperation is especially important if – as this article suggests – Mogherini embarks on a revamp of EU foreign and security policy.An incomplete list of key issues which require closer scrutiny in the days and weeks ahead includes:

• EU policymakers need to rethink relations with Russia following the Ukraine crisis and Moscow’s success in breaking down Europe’s post-World War security order. This requires a careful evaluation of EU-Russia relations which goes beyond the current focus on sanctions but includes the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas and the over-arching need to ensure immediate and long-term stability on Europe’s eastern flank. A key question to reflect over is whether US-EU restrictive measures can be effective in a world where other countries – in Asia, Africa and Latin America – are ready and willing to move in to the much-coveted Russian market. Mogherini has previously raised eyebrows for allegedly being soft on Russia but she has since told Italy's Corriere della Sera that sanctions against Russia are necessary, adding at the European Parliament that Moscow is no longer an EU strategic partner. But even as sanctions are ratcheted up,is it in Europe’s interest to isolate Russia – and should it even try? More immediately, will an EU-Russia summit go ahead as planned later this year or is there an interest in trying to re-establish a constructive conversation with Russia again?

• Events in Ukraine spotlight the failure of the EU’s goal of creating a “ring” of stable and well-governed states around its border and the glaring need to jettison the Neighbourhood Policy in favour of a less-exclusive and fresh strategy for a diverse region where none of the states are ready for EU membership and where the EU wields only limited influence given its modest financial resources and the increasing presence and funding possibilities from not just Russia but also China.

• Europe’s quasi silence over the summer’s violent events in the Middle East has dented EU credibility in a region where it once enjoyed a certain degree of respect. The EU needs to regain its role as an important actor in any peace talks which follow the current Israel-Palestinian truce. While taking part in upcoming Gaza reconstruction talks, Mogherini and her team must also reflect on the long-term validity of a situation where EU-funded projects (the EU spends US$600m on Gaza territories each year) are regularly reduced to rubble by Israeli military intervention.

• Even a more experienced foreign policy expert than Mogherini would find it difficult to hammer out an EU policy to stabilise Iraq and Syria in the face of the ruthless expansion of the “Islamic State”. Much will also depend on whether US President Obama is really as determined as he claims to be in leading a regional and international coalition to beat back the terrorists. European nations certainly have the military capabilities—such as the EU battle groups—to contribute to military actions together with the US. But there is no certainty that they will find the required political will – and public support - to take such steps. In any case, the EU needs to hammer out a medium to long-term strategy for political, humanitarian and financial efforts to stabilise the devastated region.

• In addition – and in any case - the EU needs not only to avert any domestic terrorist threat posed by “foreign fighters” who return to Europe from the Middle-East but also enhance its knowledge of Islam, its different interpretations and variations, distinguishing not only - as hopefully they now do - between Shia and Sunni but also among the various, often quixotic and radical sects promoted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mogherini’s thesis on Islamic politics should help her to spearhead such a reflection.

• More importantly a closer dialogue is needed with Turkey. Ankara may have been accused of allowing foreign fighters easy transit routes to Syria but its knowledge of the region continues to be valuable. Encouraged by the recent erratic and often-authoritarian actions of now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the EU has let its relationship with Turkey fester for much too long. Even if membership negotiations remain erratic and certain European leaders send out contrary political messages, Europe must find a way to revitalise relations with this important country. A closer dialogue with Iran, once the nuclear issue is surmounted, will help. Indonesia, only now being considered an interesting partner for the EU, has arguable even more insights to offer.

• The focus on the eastern and southern borders will not be enough. Europe’s hopes for being recognized as a valid and relevant global actor hinge on its relations with Asian nations, including China, India and Japan but also South Korea and the ten states in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). There is little the EU can do to directly tackle the so called “Asian paradox” whereby countries enmeshed in increasingly close economic networks are also embroiled in acrimonious territorial disputes. Mogherini would be well-advised to maintain strong EU ties with both Beijing and Tokyo while continuing to press for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants. EU support for South Korean President Parks’s North East Asia peace and cooperation initiative (NEAPCI) to build trust in the region should be considered. Disputes over history as well as maritime claims have meant that no Trilateral summit between the three countries since 2012. Mogherini could try and encourage the opening of a purposeful dialogue among the three nations, allowing stability to return to an economically prosperous but politically fragile area.

• Having injected new dynamism into its once lacklustre relationship with ASEAN over the last three years, the EU must not reduce its diplomatic and economic engagement with the region. This requires participation in all key ASEAN related events and a subtle but determined effort to become a member of the East Asia Summit, the region’s increasingly important dialogue forum. The EU already participates in many of the East Asia Summit’s activities through its cooperation with ASEAN in areas from economic and financial cooperation and environmental issues and disaster relief to education and research and technology.

Mogherini will not be able to do it on her own. Much will depend on the EEAS team she works with and the knowledge, expertise and passion her aides bring to their work. Team work and leadership, not micro-management, will be required.With the crisis in Ukraine and the volatile and dangerous violence spreading through the Middle East, the EU needs to rethink its foreign and security policy, asking itself three key questions: can Europe’s most-modern attachment to soft power, diplomacy and multilateralism, which have stood it well during the last decades, survive in an increasingly unstable and volatile world? How ready is the EU to forge a more muscular and interventionist approach? And can Europe make such a momentous policy U-turn at a time of falling European defence budgets and amid continuing public wariness of getting involved in foreign conflicts?Putting these issues on the backburner is no longer an option. The change of guard in Brussels is the right moment to review and reconsider Europe’s role in the world. Global Europe’s disconnect needs to be tackled before it’s too late.

ASEAN-EU to talk trade, security (Originally published 18/07/2014)

Asia remains high on the European Union’s foreign and security policy agenda following the meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations[1]) in Brussels on July 23.In August, security discussions dominated EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s participation in the influential ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Naypyidaw, Myanmar.  And mid-October, European and Asian leaders will gather in Milan for summit talks on injecting new life and momentum into their 18-year old ASEM (Asia Europe Meetings) partnership. (read more)Asia and Europe have worked hard to maintain momentum in their relations despite pressing - and difficult - domestic and regional concerns.  Such endeavours are to their credit.  However, the challenge facing participants at both the upcoming ASEAN and ASEM meetings is to build more trust and understanding - and take their relationship to a higher, more strategic level.Discussions at the EU-ASEAN meeting focused on an array of global and regional issues. But more importantly, both sides have specific long-standing demands which are likely to be raised.A “win-win” deal?For the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal.  The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes the ten-member ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others.  ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.ASEAN, meanwhile, is looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner”, the appointment of a special EU envoy accredited to the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.  While not opposed to either of these points, the EU has put ASEAN demands on hold.No breakthrough was expected at the meeting in Brussels. But if both sides play their cards correctly by engaging in innovative and creative diplomacy, the meeting could pave the way - further down the line - for a “win-win” deal on the EU’s entry into the EAS and the elevation of ASEAN to one of Europe’s “strategic partners”.As expected meanwhile, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. (read more)Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Domestic challengesKeeping Asia-Europe engagement on track has not been easy for either region. The EU still faces the over-arching challenge of consolidating a still-slow economic recovery, creating jobs, especially for young people, and deciding on the distribution of key EU posts, including the appointment of the next high-representative for foreign and security policy. Hammering out a coherent strategy vis a vis a more assertive and often-unpredictable Russia remains a challenge.  The EU is also still struggling to understand and respond to the continuing chaos and conflict in its southern neighbourhood.In Asia, meanwhile, conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas continue to strain relations between China and many of its neighbours and also challenge ASEAN’s claim to play a central role in the region.  In addition, ASEAN is grappling with a military coup in Thailand, ethnic violence in Myanmar amid preparations for next year’s presidential elections and the year-long political crisis over disputed election results in Cambodia.  While Jakarta mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is clearly the winner in Indonesia’s presidential elections, competing claims of victory by rival Prabowo Subianto have created unnecessary political confusion in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and most robust democracy.On the economic front, the Asian Development Bank has cut its initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent even as the region struggles to tackle problems posed by urbanisation, climate change and unequal development.Growing connectivityThe EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 (read more). The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity.  The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.Ashton’s participation in the ARF meeting in Napydaw ensures a much-needed, stronger EU-ASEAN dialogue on increasingly complex security issues. In a marked change over past years, there is already recognition of the need for a stronger EU-ASEAN conversation on security, including on non-traditional security threats including climate change, poverty alleviation, pandemics and illegal immigration.With 50% of world trade in tonnage passing through the South China Sea, the EU has taken a lead in establishing an EU-ASEAN high-level dialogue on maritime security, with a focus on port security, maritime surveillance, and the joint management of resources including fisheries and oil and gas.Significantly, while they once stayed carefully out of key Asian security disputes, EU countries with other Group of Seven leaders have expressed concern over tensions between China and some other Asian countries in the East and South China Seas, warned against any use of force and urged all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in accordance with international law.Deeper trustWhile much binds the two regions, upgrading EU-ASEAN ties requires deeper trust and understanding between the two sides. Encouragingly the earlier acrimony over participation and attendance at meetings is now buried.  Yet like ASEM gatherings, ASEAN meetings must become more inter-active and less formal and ritualistic. The focus on agenda items, prepared statements and out-dated rhetoric needs to be replaced by more open, frank and critical albeit constructive exchanges.Both sides have much to discuss and share.  They should be allowed to do so – even on difficult issues such as the military coup in Thailand, the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar or tensions in the South China Seas - without taking offense or engaging in an overzealous regard for diplomatic niceties.ASEAN and the EU have been talking to and working with each other for several decades - but the last three years have been especially important in binding the two regions together.  The Brunei Plan of Action adopted in 2012 laid the groundwork for a further intensification of EU-ASEAN ties. The meeting in Brussels should give added traction to EU-ASEAN engagement by preparing for a qualitative upgrade of relations within two to three years.

Indonesian elections matter to all of us (Originally published 07/07/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Elections in Indonesia matter to a closely watching world. The results of the presidential elections in the world’s third largest democracy on July 9 will determine the future direction of Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and dynamic economic powerhouse.Beyond that, Indonesia’s political choice will have an equally strong impact on its neighbours, the wider Asian region and also on Europe and the United States.  Most importantly, the way Indonesians vote will resonate across the Muslim world.Indonesians should know: their country offers a successful alternative model for Islamic societies, especially Egypt and other troubled Arab nations.As a Muslim majority country which is also a robust and vibrant democracy Indonesia is quite exceptional in a Muslim world dominated by monarchies, dictatorships and uncertain, vulnerable democracies.Indonesia’s experience in transiting from years of authoritarianism to democracy stands as an inspiration at a time when countries like Egypt are back peddling on meeting popular aspirations for change and political reform.Egypt’s failed democratic transition is proof that democracy needs visionary, thoughtful and cool-headed leaders, careful nurturing and can never be taken for granted.The choice Indonesians face now is simple: will they vote for a man who harks back to a past era, talks tough at a timewhen the world is looking for Indonesian “soft power” to tackle 21^st Century challenges or a young and dynamic politician who stands for a new and progressive Indonesia, ready to take its place as a global power.Indonesia over the last decade and more has witnessed a massive transformation of its economy, with analysts now predicting that by 2030, the country will have an economy larger than either Germany or the United Kingdom.Whoever takes over the reins of power will have to tackle a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy, over-reliance on commodity exports, infrastructure bottlenecks and corruption. Keeping Indonesia open for business and avoiding the dreaded “middle income trap” will be other important priorities. The next president will also need to confront the problem of religious extremism which threatens a country known for its tolerance and moderation.

The world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.

Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21^stCentury power.

ASEM: Why Asia-Europe relations matter in the 21st Century (Originally published 30/06/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

The Asia-Europe partnership, launched in Bangkok in 1996 to foster stronger relations between the two regions, is ready for a reset.Hopes are high that the 10^th Asia Europe Meeting – or ASEM summit – to be held in Milan on October 16-17 will confirm the credibility and relevance of Asia-Europe relations in the 21^st Century. ASEM has certainly survived many storms and upheavals over the last eighteen years. With ASEM’s 20^th anniversary in 2016 approaching rapidly, the challenge is not only to ensure the survival of the partnership but to create conditions for it to flourish and thrive.ASEM has been through different periods.  Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of apathy and disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important meetings. Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo opportunities.The talk now is about renewal and revival as Asians and Europeans seek to inject fresh oomph into ASEM. The focus is on energizing discussions through changed formats and a stronger focus on content.This is positive. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. It is also conditional on closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts. An ASEM business summit and peoples’ forum will be held in parallel with the leaders’ meeting.Fresh ideasEncouragingly, efforts to reinvigorate ASEM have already begun. Asian and European foreign ministers and senior officials have been meeting over the last two years to try and thrash out a new and potentially winning formula for ASEM’s revival. Fresh ideas and formats to recapture ASEM’s original informality and flexibility are being put to the test. Efforts are being made to focus on content, not process. Long-winded communiques are being slimmed down. And leaders are being encouraged to engage in real conversations, not read from prepared papers, while also using ASEM’s immense networking opportunities for increased bilateral contacts.These and other initiatives are important and should go a long way in making ASEM more interesting and useful – and perhaps even more visible to the public.  To stay in sync with a changing global political and economic landscape, ASEM is trying harder to adapt to and reflect new realities. Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit – “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” – allows for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial questions linked to food, water and energy security.High-level supportAs Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director at the European External Action Service (EEAS) points out, Asia matters for Europe - and, just as importantly, Europe matters for Asia. Messages of support for the partnership have also been made in recent months by the Chinese, Japanese and Russian leaders. A statement released after President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China meetings in Brussels underlined the “growing role of trans-regional and regional dialogue mechanisms to promote regional peace and prosperity”, with leaders saying they looked forward to the ASEM summit in Milan. Subsequently, an EU-Japan statement highlighted ASEM’s “value” as a forum for dialogue and cooperation.  And interestingly, after their talks in Shanghai recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin defined ASEM as an “important platform for the exchange of economic and trade cooperation in other fields, social, cultural, etc.,” adding that they were “willing to strengthen cooperation and promote the ASEM to enhance work efficiency”.Connectivity, connectivity, connectivityEngagement between the two regions has been increasing over the years, both within and outside ASEM. Five of the 51 (set to rise to 52 with Croatia joining in October) ASEM partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia – are the EU’s strategic partners. Turkey and Kazakhstan have formally voiced interest in joining ASEM although approval of their applications will take time. There is now a stronger EU-Asian conversation on trade, business, security and culture.Exports to Asia and investments in the region are pivotal in ensuring a sustainable European economic recovery while the EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe, helping Asian governments to maintain growth and development.  European technology is in much demand across the region. Not surprisingly, Asia-Europe economic interdependence has grown. With total Asia-Europe trade in 2012 estimated at € 1.37 trillion, Asia has become the EU’s main trading partner, accounting for a third of total trade. More than a quarter of European outward investments head for Asia while Asia’s emerging global champions are seeking out business deals in Europe. The increased connectivity is reflected in the mutual Asia-Europe quest to negotiate Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)and investment accords.The FTAs concluded with South Korea and Singapore and similar deals under negotiation with Japan, India and individual ASEAN –the Association of Southeast Asian Nations– countries as well as the bilateral investment treaty under discussion with China are important in consolidating EU-Asia relations. These and other initiatives illustrate enhanced recognition that the two regions must work closely together to ensure not only national and regional prosperity but also sustainable and inclusive global growth.Beyond tradeASEM’s connectivity credentials go beyond trade and economics.  In addition to the strategic partnerships mentioned above, Asia and Europe are linked through an array of cooperation accords. Discussions on climate change, pandemics, illegal immigration, maritime security, urbanization and green growth are frequent among multiple government ministries and agencies in both regions, reflecting a growing recognition that 21^st Century challenges can only be tackled through improved global governance and failing that through “patchwork governance” involving cross-border and cross-regional alliances.

While Asia’s rise dominates the headlines, the region’s leaders are cognizant of the many challenges they face – and often look to Europe for cooperation in tackling them. Many Asian countries did not succumb to the woes plaguing the American and European economies but governments in economic powerhouses like China, India and Indonesia are acutely aware of the dangers of falling into the “middle income trap” of economic stagnation. Even as an emerging Asian middle class aspires for a better life and working conditions, the region is grappling with environmental degradation, rampant urbanisation, poor implementation of labour standards and lax quality controls on consumer products. Wealth inequalities persist despite the region’s successful attempts to reduce poverty.

Security: The Asian paradoxDiscussions on security are an important part of the political pillar in ASEM, with leaders exchanging views on regional and global flashpoints. Given current tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, this year’s debate should be particularly important.

Some call it the “Asian paradox”. Even as economic cooperation and - in the case of ASEAN - economic integration gathers pace in Asia, historical animosities and unresolved territorial conflicts weigh heavily on the region, damaging relations between governments and people.  The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who warn that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Asian views of Europe’s security role are also changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.  As such, eearlier scepticism of Europe’s security credentials is being replaced by recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy human rights.In addition, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner to deal with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change. Clearly also, the EU remains an inspiration for Asia’s own regional integration initiatives, including ASEAN, and in areas such as rules-based collective security.The seas…Europeans too are starting to become more aware of their security credentials and the global implications of instability in Asia, not least as regards maritime security. “The EU’s essential interests are closely tied up with the security of East Asia,” due largely to implications for navigation and commerce, underlines an EU Council document issued in 2012. The recently approved EU maritime security strategy identifies several threats to EU interests including cross-border and organised crime, threats to freedom of navigation, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and environmental risks.  Respect for international law and especially the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea are emphasised.  Importantly, several Asian and European countries are working together in the EU-led ATALANTA counter-piracy operation in the Western Indian Ocean.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts. The European Union has signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region. High-level European and Asian representatives are now regular participants at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore.A changing worldMuch has changed in Asia and Europe since ASEM’s launch.  The last 18 years have seen the sustained rise of a self-confident Asia and much soul-searching in Europe over the region’s global relevance. ASEAN efforts to create a frontier-free economic community are speeding up and Myanmar, once the global pariah and the cause of much Asia-Europe acrimony, is now firmly committed to political reform. Europe’s economic troubles have made it less strident in promoting a values-based agenda and while the United States’ “pivot” to Asia certainly prodded Europe to become more active in the region, Asia and Europe have discovered the value of interacting with each other without America.Still ASEM faces strong competition. There is no dearth of rival groupings and countries have become adept at “forum shopping” as they seek to build interest-based coalitions. In a multipolar world, the G20 which brings together industrialised and emerging countries now has to fight for its place against other alliances such as BRICS (which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia).  A host of other regional and cross-regional groupings litter an increasingly crowded global landscape.

Even as economic connectivity rises, Asia and Europe are witnessing the rise of nationalist and populist movements and politics in many countries are becoming more national and inward-looking. At the same time, as underlined by Yeo Lay Hwee of the European Union Centre at the National University of Singapore, relations between states have become more complex and multi-dimensional as countries vacillate between cooperation and competition and even conflict. Asians worry that the entry into the European Parliament of extremist and populist parties will generate a “Little Europe” mindset which fears globalisation and free trade.  Europeans fret over rising China-Japan and Japan-South Korean tensions as well as Beijing’s deteriorating relations with Hanoi and Manila.

No time to lose: EU needs a new agenda for action (Originally published 28/05/2014)

So far, so predictable. As expected, voter turn-out in the European Parliament elections was modest, Far Right and populist parties made big gains, Jean Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister, whose European People’s Party (EPP) has the largest number of seats in the new assembly wants to be the next president of the European Commission – and EU leaders are undecided on what to do next.They should not be. The “wake up call” delivered by voters demands urgent responses and a complete reassessment of EU priorities.The attention must move from austerity to growth and jobs. The EU must do better at communicating with people. The populist rhetoric of the Far Right parties must be countered with a new, more assertive agenda for building a competitive, secure and credible Europe which is responsive to its citizens’ concerns but still able to play an important role in its neighborhood and on the global stage.And of course, EU leaders must reach a quick decision on nominating a new European Commission president, capable of enacting and implementing a fresh and ambitious agenda for Europe.This is not the moment for protracted squabbling on the way ahead – either on policies to follow or people to nominate. The first post-election meeting of EU leaders held on Tuesday was not a good start, however.Instead of cool-headed assessments and a focus on overhauling policies, the gathering heard the expected spate of complaints and recriminations about Europe having lost its way.With the Front National in the lead at home, French President François Hollande lamented that the EU project had become “remote and incomprehensible”, reflecting a "distrust in Europe and a fear of decline". British Prime Minister David Cameron noted peoples’ deep disillusionment and desire for change as the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) came first in the domestic vote.Criticism is good but this is the time for leaders to look ahead – and to take responsibility for the current state of Europe.The meeting on Tuesday also showed that a quick decision on a new European Commission president – and the other top EU jobs up for grabs – also seems unlikely.EU leaders have traditionally named the Commission head on their own, but under the Lisbon Treaty, they now have "to take account" of the European election results. But many have made clear that while Juncker may be the European Parliament’s favourite son, he does not have an “automatic” right to become the next Commission chief. Significantly, however, the Parliament must ultimately approve the next head of the EU executive.Causing alarm – and possibly triggering a long, difficult and damaging Council/Parliament battle - German Chancellor Angela Merkel recognized that while “the EPP is the strongest political force and Jean-Claude Juncker is our top candidate” the net should be cast wider to include other “suitable persons”.The spotlight now falls on European Council President Herman Van Rompuy who will consult European Parliament political groups and EU heads of government on the nomination of the Commission president. The EU summit on June 26-27 may take a final decision.European citizens need more – and better. EU leaders should start setting a new “action agenda” for the next five years. Key questions that need urgent responses include:- Is the EU ready to put growth and jobs at the centre of its policies and actions, replacing the focus on austerity?- Will there be a new push towards a full EU banking union, with centralised supervision?- Can there be a rebalancing of powers between EU and national authorities?- Can the EU continue to play an important global role despite the “little Europe”, anti-globalisation and anti-trade and protectionist manifestos of the Far Right and populist parties?- How best can the EU reconcile its skills shortages and economic need for immigration with the tough anti-foreigner and xenophobic message of the Far Right groups?- Will the EU be able to pursue a common energy policy and reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas – and develop a sensible policy towards Russia given the pro-Moscow stance taken by many of the winning populist parties?- Can a better job be done on developing a credible, positive and relevant narrative for Europe to counter the simplistic and toxic anti-EU message of the populist and anti-European parties?For all the publicity given to the populists’ surge in the polls, it is true that the pro-European centre-right and centre-left parties will still dominate the Parliament and set the agenda for Europe.It is also possibly true that the Far Right groups will be too fragmented and quarrelsome to dominate the European conversation.But while such arguments are valid, they miss the point: EU politicians have done a very poor job of engaging with citizens and listening seriously to their fears and concerns. No effort has been made to develop a strong counter-narrative to the anti-European message of the Far Right. This is the time to do so.Change is always difficult and painful. But it can no longer be avoided.

Indian elections: Gearing up for a “new” India? (Originally published 20/05/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz and Gauri Khandekar)

Expectations of change are high as Narendra Modi, leader of the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), takes charge as India’s new prime minister.Critics describe him as controversial and polarising. But with his ground-breaking outright parliamentary majority, Modi certainly has the mandate to take strong and decisive action to revive economic growth and tackle India’s many other challenges.Indian business leaders have embraced Modi as their man, seeing him as the best hope for ending paralysed government policy and bringing in more foreign investment.An impressive turnaround in the fortunes of Gujarat, the Indian state he led as chief minister since 2001 (his supporters speak of a “Gujarat model of success”), has further burnished Modi’s credentials.Still it won’t be easy. With India’s economic reform and liberalisation programme running out of steam and growth falling from 10.3 per cent in 2010 to less than 5 per cent annually, the new prime minister faces an uphill struggle to turn election pledges into effective national policies.A paradigm political shiftHe has the voters with him. Modi’s election victory is stunning, triggering a tectonic paradigm shift in Indian electoral politics. The BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), won 336 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament), with the BJP itself securing a sweeping outright majority by winning 283 seats.The impressive numbers mean that he owes his victory to Indians from every caste, class and religious background, including Muslims, many of whom appear to have set aside their suspicions about his role in the bloodletting in Gujarat in 2002. Modi has always denied any wrongdoing and the Indian Supreme Court ruled in 2010 he had no case to answer.The election also signals a radical transformation of India’s political landscape, with the long-ruling Congress Party, led by the Gandhi dynasty, winning only 44 seats, down from 209 in the previous Lok Sabha.Good times are comingDuring hundreds of rallies across the country, the BJP leader promised his voters that “good times are coming” as he vowed to promote development, revive economic growth, tackle youth employment, build a world-class infrastructure, and ensure women’s safety.The list of tasks for the incoming government is long and Modi, who campaigned on promises of “smaller government, more governance”, will have to act fast.The first priorities will be to kick-start the economy, overhaul the infrastructure sector and with 13 million young people entering the job market every year, the new Indian leader will have to act quickly to deliver on promises to create jobs.It will be a challenge. Analysts say India must create 10 million jobs a year, four times the pace of the last 5 years, to absorb youth into the workforce. Over half the country’s population is aged under 25 years.Big and boldRebooting India’s economy will require big and bold reforms on several fronts, including changes in labour laws which discourage foreign companies from setting up factories in India. Such a change is pivotal: revving up the manufacturing is essential to create more jobs, but manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of India’s economy, compared to 31 per cent in China.An overhaul of India’s tax system and better infrastructure will also help encourage foreign investors. In addition, with his focus on urbanisation, Modi has promised to build 100 new cities and construct a high-speed rail network.With 400 million Indians still living in desperate poverty and 217 million of the country’s children malnourished, enormous social challenges continue to demand attention.Much will depend on the distribution of key portfolios such as finance, external affairs, defence and interior. All eyes are also on the first budget, expected to be released in June or July, which could give clear signs on the government’s economic vision and policy priorities.Foreign policy challenges Modi spoke little about foreign policy during the election campaign, leading to speculation that a drastic shift from past policies is unlikely, not least because of the continuity provided by India’s permanent bureaucracy. Analysts concur that the government’s engagement with the outside world is expected to focus heavily on trade and investment.Pakistan has wasted no time in making overtures to the incoming prime minister. Modi has been invited to visit Pakistan but many are worried the new Indian prime minister will be hostile towards its neighbour. The optimistic view is that Modi will follow in the footsteps of the former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who was also a BJP leader but developed good relations with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s. Sharif is also Pakistan’s current prime minister. In addition, Modi’s domestic growth and jobs agenda requires stability in India’s neighbourhood.The new Indian leader will have to make up his mind on whether he wants to do business and trade with China or whether – as some of his statements have indicated – he will adopt a more assertive posture towards Beijing. The body language between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Brazil in July - likely to be one of Modi’s first overseas visits — will give a first signal of the future relationship between two of Asia’s leading powers.Modi will almost certainly pursue stronger economic ties with Japan, with an eye on expanding the flow of Japanese investments into the country. Relations with ASEAN are likely to be further consolidated as part of India’s “Look East” policy of upgrading economic ties with Asia’s rising economies.Oh, America! The greatest momentum in US-Indian relations came during the 2000s, when India was growing at rates approaching 10 per cent – but the once-thriving relationship hit stormy weather last year over allegations that a New York-based Indian diplomat, Devyani Khobragade, had committed visa fraud over the employment of a maid. The situation is made more complex by the fact that Modi is the only person ever to be banned from traveling to the US under the International Religious Freedom Act. A congressional report earlier this year said the BJP leader would qualify for a visa if he became leader. US President Barack Obama has said he looks forward to working closely with the new Indian leader to “fulfill the extraordinary promise of the US-India strategic partnership.” Modi is expected to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September. A visit to Washington is likely to follow.Last but not least: Europe… Given the expected focus on Washington, Beijing and Pakistan, relations with the European Union (EU) are not likely to be an immediate top priority for the new government. The EU is hoping, however, that Modi will put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the much delayed EU-India Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA).“Investors from Europe are bullish about India’s growth potential and want to see New Delhi and Brussels iron out their differences over the BTIA. We hope that the new Indian Government will be able to take some hard decisions necessary to spur growth and investments,” says Sunil Prasad, Secretary-General of the Brussels-based Europe-India Chamber of Commerce (EICC).Brussels and Delhi have been trying to clinch the elusive investment deal for the last seven years. But differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights have impeded progress.The opening up of Indian’s insurance market, changes in government procurement rules and market access for automobiles as well as wines and spirits are important issues for the EU. India is insisting on more labour mobility, professional work visas and recognition as a data secure country to attract more European investments in its high tech sector.EU officials say the pact could be signed in 2015 – provided both sides summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations. A recent EU ban on imports of Indian mangoes because of phyto-sanitary concerns has injected new strains in the relationship, however.Stronger interest Beyond the BTIA, Brussels is hoping the new government will demonstrate stronger interest in developing the EU-India relations.Europe and India have much to discuss. The new government’s jobs and growth programme resonates deeply in Brussels given the EU’s own struggle to generate employment and boost economic recovery. Both sides confront the challenge of expanding economic reforms, bolstering trade and tackling regional disparities.The EU-India conversation on security and counter-terrorism has taken off as has cooperation on regulatory cooperation and data protection. Discussions on environmental protection, urbanisation and water and food security are ongoing.The challenge now is to take the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level. European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will be an important step in marking a fresh start in relations. Convening such a meeting should be a priority.

Myanmar today: Tackling the good, the bad and the ugly (Originally published 09/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

After five decades of repressive military rule, Myanmar’s political and economic transformation continues to impress. The country is preparing for milestone elections in autumn 2015, ceasefire talks have opened with ethnic groups and work begun on important constitutional changes ahead of next year’s polls. With the economy growing by 6-7 percent a year and labour costs still low, foreign investments are pouring in. Myanmar’s current chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides President Thein Sein with a further opportunity to boost the country’s regional and international profile.And yet. Initial optimism over Myanmar’s transition is beginning to wear thin. Increasing ethnic violence and civil unrest, especially in Rakhine state, among Buddhist groups and the stateless Rohingya Muslims, is a big, dark spot on Myanmar’s credentials. With thousands of Rohingya forced to live in overcrowded camps or flee by boat, beleaguered relief agencies – many of which have been forced out of the country - have warned of a humanitarian crisis in the strife-hit state.International criticism of the government’s failure to stem the violence is increasing, with 46 countries, including the United States (US), recently joining forces with the European Union (EU) at the United Nations Human Rights Council to express serious concern over the situation of the Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State. The resolution also asked for the extension of the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on Myanmar for one more year and urged an opening of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the country.Inclusive growthAdditionally, there is concern that while growth rates are high, Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most impoverished countries. Foreign partners worry that any slowdown in reform efforts in the run up to elections will make it even more difficult for the government to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.On the bright side, attracted by a growing consumer base and low-cost workforce, foreign investors are lining up to establish a foothold in Myanmar. A foreign investment law was passed in 2012 allowing some overseas firms to fully own ventures. In a bid to further open up, a Telecommunications Law was passed last year and foreign energy companies have recently been given rights to explore offshore Myanmar. The country is also slowly opening up its banking sector, with foreign banks expected to be allowed to operate independently by the end of the year. About 35 international banks already have representative offices in Myanmar.The next stage of political reform looks set to be especially challenging. The government is hoping for progress toward peace through the signature of a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with ethnic armed groups. Preliminary talks were held in Thailand at the end of January and the second round in Yangon, on March 9-10. The third round to coordinate the joint-drafting of a single nationwide document was completed on April 8, with both sides agreeing on the titles of the seven-chapter draft which will be further discussed in early May. Formal high-level peace talks to set a date for the signing of the agreement are expected to take place in Hpa-an, capital of Kayin state. Once ready, the deal will be signed by the government, parliament, the armed forces, political parties and leaders of different ethnic groups.The government has also embarked on the difficult task of amending the constitution, including article 59(f), which debars opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because of the foreign citizenship of her children and late husband. The process is proving to be more complex than anticipated, however, prompting fears the reform process is running out of steam.President Sein raised hopes earlier this year by voicing support for changing the constitution to allow “any citizen,” to run for the presidency in 2015. But preliminary non-binding recommendations issued in January by the Constitutional Review Joint Committee, a 109-member parliamentary body tasked with reviewing proposals to amend the nation’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, suggest insufficient support for this change although a greater devolution of authority to states and regions, a key demand of many ethnic groups, appears to have the green light. These recommendations will now be reviewed by a 31-member committee which will, in turn, report to the parliament.The census currently under way in the country – which also asks sensitive questions about race and ethnicity that human rights groups have repeatedly warned puts vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya (regarded by the authorities as illegal Bengali immigrants) at additional risk, is another complication. Ethnic minorities, which together make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s population, contend that they were not properly consulted ahead of the census, which requires respondents to identify themselves as one of 135 ethnic groups.Cautious ASEAN chairMyanmar joined ASEAN in 1997 and was to take the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 but was passed over amid international pressure due to its poor human rights record. Although the country now shines in the global spotlight, as current ASEAN chair, Myanmar faces a tough regional agenda, with its partners and the international community anxious about the country’s ability to host the multiple high-level meetings scheduled for the year and to keep ASEAN on course to meet its 2015 end-target for establishing a frontier-free economic community.At a time when ASEAN needs strong leadership, dealing with difficult issues such as conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines will also be a challenge. Analysts say Myanmar performed well at the first informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers held in Bagan earlier this year by steering the group to release a short statement calling on states to settle disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In comparison, two years ago, when Cambodia was ASEAN chair, the organisation split under pressure from Beijing to avoid any mention of the South China Sea.Significantly, Myanmar is also current chair of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), and as such is under strong pressure from increasingly vocal ASEAN civil society groups to adhere to the human rights commitments which are part of the ASEAN Charter.A role for Europe Despite competition from the US, China, Japan, India and others, the EU has quickly emerged as a key partner for Myanmar. EU sanctions – except on exports of weapons - were lifted in April 2013 and the country was brought into the “Everything but Arms” trade regime which provides duty free and quota access for exports from least developed states. As a result, bilateral EU-Myanmar trade is expanding rapidly, climbing up to €569 million last year, a 41% increase compared to 2012 (€403 million).EU investment in Myanmar has so far been limited as a result of sanctions. According to Myanmar’s official figures, cumulated existing EU investments amounted to some US$ 3.1 billion in 2013 (9% of Myanmar’s FDI). This is set to change, however, as investors scour the country for business opportunities and the EU and Myanmar launch negotiations on an investment protection treaty which Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said will become an important accelerator for reform in the country.“Experience has shown that improving legal certainty and predictability for investments is key in providing business opportunities and much-needed development for this growing economy,” De Gucht said during a recent visit to Myanmar. The deal is expected to provide European investors with guarantees against discrimination, expropriation without compensation and protection against unfair and inequitable treatment.EU aid to Myanmar is increasing. The EU committed €100 million of the total €150 million in assistance to the country in 2012, with the money being spent on existing education and health support schemes and for people who have been internally displaced as a result of the country's numerous ethnic conflicts. In 2013, commitments totaled €50 million covering longer-term support to trade and the private sector, ethnic peace, climate change as well as more support to civil society. EU aid to Myanmar is expected to increase by 20 percent in 2014. There is also an agreement in principle that the European Investment Bank (EIB) will extend its operations to Myanmar, with a focus on infrastructure projects including transport and energy, forestry and the opening of credit lines to selected local banks for on-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.An important balancing act The EU’s focus on economics is important. Through trade and aid, Europe can help ease poverty in the country and play a vital role in helping the government to strike the right balance between rapid economic growth and sustainable and inclusive development.Encouragingly, Europe is also keeping up the pressure on human rights in both its bilateral contacts with Myanmar and in international fora such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. Acting on different fronts, EU funds are being used to help Myanmar’s political and economic transition through government capacity-building, support for the Myanmar Human Rights Commission and the Election Commission. EU support is also being channelled to the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC), created by the government to secure peace in ethnic areas as well as to the peace process and the development of ethnic areas. In addition, ethnic groups have also received assistance to enable their participation in peace talks.As it deepens its engagement with Myanmar – and ASEAN – the EU should continue to balance its economic overtures to the country with continuing pressure on issues of human rights, good governance and the rule of law.Myanmar has come a long way in a very short time. Visionaries in the government and the region say there is no reason the country cannot fulfil its long-term ambition to become a regional powerhouse. To make the dream a reality, however, Myanmar will have to learn that economic growth and progress must be shared by all its people, human rights must be respected – and there must be a place in the country for all ethnic groups, whatever their religion.

Fashioning "Global Europe" for the 21st Century (Originally published 01/10/13)

It’s not enough to talk about the European Union's standing and influence in today’s rapidly changing world: the EU needs to thrash out a new foreign policy adapted and responsive to 21st century challenges.This is urgent.  True, EU leaders, foreign ministers and senior official often engage in bouts of hand-wringing over Europe’s “loss of influence” and declining presence on the global stage.  This is often followed by a resounding thumping of chests as everyone agrees that Europe is – after all – still an important and relevant international player.  It’s not that simple, however.Europe certainly has much to offer. The EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe.  European technology helps the world tackle climate change, urbanisation and other 21st-century challenges, European design excites fashionistas the world over and tourists flock to European cities to enjoy good food, wine and visit exquisite monuments.Europe’s ‘soft power’ resonates when it comes to peace-making and reconciliation, trade, aid and the promotion of democracy and the rule of law.  With Croatia now in and others lining up to join, the EU retains its zone of influence in the neighbourhood.  And as the Eurozone crisis gives way to recovery, however fragile, global concerns about Europe’s economic performance are easing.And yet.  There is no doubt that the EU’s star does not shine as brightly as it should in many skies.  EU-watchers who once – too optimistically – believed that the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service would lead to a more forceful EU foreign policy are disappointed.Their disappointment is even stronger when it comes to European security and defence policy.  Many believe that because it has no army, navy or air force at its command, the EU will always be a second class international actor, handing out cheques but not pro-actively influencing global events and decisions.No appetite for military actionEurope’s partners know that while governments in France and Britain may still have an appetite for military interventions in response to international crisis, their citizens – and Europeans more generally – certainly don’t. Significantly, Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy and an industrial machine that’s the envy of the planet, has made clear that it is not overly interested in taking on global responsibilities of the military kind.Germany is viewed by many as a reluctant giant which, as one newspaper recently put it, seems content to lurk in the shadows. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying that Europe must become more competitive as China and other powers rise. “The world doesn’t sleep,” she said recently. However, she hasn’t coupled that with any grand visions for a continental revival.Within Europe, the doomsayers — of which there are many — insist that the Eurozone crisis and the impact of economic stagnation on European societies have accelerated the loss of EU influence in the international arena.China, India, Russia, Brazil and others are often seen in the EU as fierce rivals who want a ‘full-scale reversal’ of their relationship with the West by demanding better representation in multilateral fora and a stronger voice in global governance. Others argue that Europe should be more assertive and more self-confident when dealing with the cheeky new kids on the bloc.It was partly to respond to such concerns that the EEAS was set up three years ago to act as an EU foreign ministry — and certainly the EU flag is now more often seen flying across the world. But in today’s competitive world of rising powers, new alliances and increased geo-strategic competition, the EEAS is still seen as under-performing.Much of the criticism is levelled at Catherine Ashton, the head of the EEAS and the EU’s de facto foreign minister. It has to be said, however, that Ashton’s role is a difficult one and constrained by the limited space she is allowed by some of the EU’s bigger member states, including Britain and France.Pressure for a more effective foreign policyThe good news is that some EU countries want to go further. The foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden argued recently that Europe needs a strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world. The famous question posed by Henry Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state, about the dialling code for Europe has, by now, by and large been answered, the ministers said.“The critical question is no longer how to reach us, but instead what Europe should say when the phone rings,” they complained, adding: “we now have the hardware of institutions in place, we need to focus on the software of policies that makes the entire thing operate in a clear and credible way.”

The ministers are right: Europe needs a new strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world than the one that existed in 2003, when Javier Solana, the former EU “high representative” for foreign and security policy, drew up the first-ever EU strategy for living in a globalised world.

Such a new blueprint for “global Europe” need not be long and complicated.  It needs to start by recognising that the world has changed dramatically in the last decade - and include recommendations for a few pivotal changes in policies and attitudes.

While the 2003 document centred on traditional security threats, the focus should now shift to  non-traditional challenges – climate change, energy and food security, maritime piracy, cyber security - which must be tackled urgently.

The EU has strong expertise and experience in all these areas.  But concerted international action on these and other issues requires that countries and organisations build new networks and alliances.  It means working with like-minded nations but above all also cooperating with non-like minded countries.  It means talking with others, not haranguing or talking down to them.  And this means a change of EU diplomatic tone and style.

Respect for emerging powers

Global competition for influence has increased as China, Russia, India and Brazil become more assertive and more vocal on the global stage.  The EU may have “strategic partnerships” with these countries, but the agreements need to be reinforced and strengthened – and the EU has to learn to treat these nations with respect and use their insight to readjust its worldview.

Working only with the big guys of the emerging world is not enough.  The new world order is being fashioned not just by China and Brazil but also by countries like Indonesia and Mexico, Kenya, Australia and organisations such as ASEAN.  The EU  needs urgently to upgrade its ties with these nations and bring them on board as  partners.

The compelling need for better global governance in today's still-chaotic multipolar world demands such cooperation.

Relations with Turkey are an albatross around the EU's neck.  They need to be repaired urgently in order to allow for real consultation on regional and global flash-points.  Europe's relations with Turkey are under close scrutiny the world over, with people questioning just why the EU remains so reluctant to open its doors to such an important regional and international actor.  The answers are not edifying.

The EU's international and moral standing are conditional on its ability to build an inclusive society which celebrates diversity instead of fearing it.  Europe cannot condemn discrimination against minorities in Pakistan and Myanmar if its own track record in dealing with such issues is not above reproach.

Democracy and human rights

Europe's values - democracy, the rule of law, human rights (to name a few) - are important and should be promoted more actively across the globe.  But those doing the promotion should do so with sensitivity and humility.  The message is too important to be drowned out by arrogance.

While often irked by EU hectoring and lecturing on human rights, many countries are anxious to learn more from Europe about regional integration, reconciliation and reform.  Europe's "soft power" lies in its ability to teach an anxious world about conflict management and peace-building.

The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who have warned that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.

Ironicially while the new world order demands the establishment of networks and coalitions, the EU will become a more significant power if it builds on its uniqueness as a foreign policy actor.  As such, while the transatlantic relationship is vital and important, hanging on to US coat-tails, especially when it comes to Asia, is not a good option.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership certainly has its value in terms of jobs and growth on both sides of the Atlantic but it would be unfortunate if it is seen as the West "ganging up" against the rest.  For the moment, that is how China and other Asians see it.  The EU should act urgently to correct that impression - and invest more in the outcome of the Bali ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation in December.

Civil society actorsForeign policy today is not just the exclusive preserve of diplomats. Civil society actors, social media, sports personalities, artists, academics and think tanks are now an essential part of the game.  The EU's new global outreach must include such thought-leaders.  As the Arab Spring has shown, dealing only with governments is no longer an option.As Javier Solana, the EU’s former ‘high representative’ for foreign and security policy said recently, in today’s world of flux, the nature of power is changing. Power was once measured in the size of armies and population, not in terms of GDP per capita, reputation and whether you get to host the Olympic Games.  It is also about ideas, innovation, art and culture.It is worth remembering that while military force and interventions can provoke regime change, in the end, all parties — the victorious and the defeated — have to come to the negotiating table and find political solutions. And this is something the EU and Europeans are very good at.It is often argued that further EU integration will lead to a united, coherent, and effective European foreign policy. This is true of course.  But the integration process remains slow and painful.  The need for a smarter and more forceful EU foreign policy is urgent.

Renewing ASEM ahead of 2014 summit (Originally published 25/09/13)

Most multilateral organisations face the daunting task of adapting to new 21st century economic, political and social realities.Set up in the aftermath of World War II, global institutions at the core of the international system, such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are under pressure to respond to the rise of the world’s emerging powers.The G20, which brings together industrialised countries and the world’s leading rising powers - including China, India and Brazil - was created in 1999 to complement the more restricted G8 composed of traditional industrialised powers. Demands for more effective governance now also beset the G20.Not surprisingly, renewal and reform are also the name of the game for ASEM, the Asia-Europe partnership launched in Bangkok in March 1996 to build stronger region-to-region ties.ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), with its 51 partners, is an important multilateral platform for Asia-Europe contacts which allows the two regions to interact in myriad ways.Trade and investment flows are booming, the two regions share concerns about regional and global peace and security and meet regularly within the ASEM framework to discuss issues as varied as urbanisation, river basin management, food security and education.But there is no doubt: ASEM must adapt to the changing landscape in both Asia and Europe if it is to remain credible and relevant.Interestingly, that means going back to the original informality and flexibility of ASEM and the immense Asia-Europe networking opportunities it offers.On the plus side, ASEM includes five of the European Union’s strategic partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia - and four of the UN Security Council’s permanent members – China, Russia, Britain and France.The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding members in 1996 – is a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour. Once inside the partnership, European and Asian countries of all sizes interact with each other on an equal footing.The forum also provides a platform for ample bilateral contacts between leaders and officials of both sides.Yet, the need for renewal is pressing.  ASEM meetings over the years have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions.The progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms.The consensus is that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.Ironically this could be achieved by taking ASEM “back to the future” and rediscovering the initial rationale behind the partnership. The aim is to recover ASEM’s initial focus on substance over protocol and ritual.Efforts to make ASEM more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities – have dominated deliberations for the last few years.Progress on revitalising ASEM is gaining momentum in the run-up to the ASEM summit hosted by the EU and set to be held in Milan, Italy, in autumn 2014.ASEM foreign ministers meeting in Delhi on November 11-12 are expected to endorse a number of changes which many hope will inject new life into the Asia-Europe partnership.Asian and European policymakers have agreed to streamline and simplify ASEM working methods to ensure that ASEM foreign ministers and leaders engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.As such, when they meet in Delhi in November, in addition to attending 2 official plenary sessions, ASEM foreign ministers will engage in a “retreat” to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue.Discussions in the plenaries will focus on sustainable economic growth and development and on non-traditional security issues, including issues such as food, energy and water security, cyber security and counter-terrorism.The “retreat” will look at international and regional flashpoints including the Middle East, North Korea and Iran.Efforts are being made to ensure that chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings are short, simple and to-the-point.Based on existing mechanisms, there is now agreement to work on cooperation projects which are even more visible and tangible for benefit of Asia and Europe.Following the recent membership of Norway, Switzerland and Bangladesh, ASEM expansion is expected to continue as Croatia, which became the 28th member state of the EU on July 1 2013, formally joins ASEM next year.ASEM partners also face the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership, especially in the run up to the summit in 2014 and two years later when ASEM celebrates its 20th anniversary.If ASEM reform is implemented as planned, 2016 could become an important milestone in a reinvigorated Asia-Europe partnership, a must in the 21st century.

Australia under Abbott to stay engaged in Asia (Originally published 09/09/13)

Tony Abbott is set to be sworn in as Australia’s new conservative prime minister this week, replacing outgoing Labor leader Kevin Rudd and ending six years of Labor party rule.Following a landslide victory on September 7, the PM elect has already said his top priorities are to abolish Australia’s carbon emissions tax and to stop asylum-seekers arriving by boat.Significantly, he has also made clear that Australia will maintain strong links with its Asia Pacific neighbours, with an emphasis on China and Indonesia.As the last elections have illustrated, Australian politics are dramatic, passionate and almost Shakespearian in the endless narrative of unexpected betrayal, ruthlessness, revenge and the search for redemption.The run-up to the polls was dominated by the battle between Abbott and Rudd but also by the even tougher and continuing saga of hate and revenge between Rudd and Julia Gillard, the former Labor prime minister who Rudd unceremoniously — and very dramatically — kicked out of office in June this year.Not many tears were shed for Gillard since she had played a similar dirty trick on Rudd in June 2010. Australian politics, it can be said, leave Bollywood drama in the shade.Australia has come a long way in the last few years.  Although the Australian economy may not be growing as it fast as it did in recent years, its steady 2.6 percent GDP growth rates for the year are still higher than for any other developed nation.The country’s economic performance is certainly a far cry from the 1980s when Lee Kuan Yew, the outspoken former prime minister of Singapore, warned that the country was living way beyond its means and in danger of becoming the “poor white trash” of Asia.Gone also are the days when Malaysia’s former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad refused to accept Australian membership of Asian groupings because, as he insisted "they are Europeans, they cannot be Asians".The feisty Malaysian leader may not have changed his mind, but his successors certainly have – as have all other Asian countries, including China.Australia’s tough line on asylum seekers and refugees creates unease in Asia. As Jane McAdam of the University of New South Wales says many of the country’s’ initiatives including the mandatory detention for all unlawful arrivals, the excision of the whole Australian mainland from Australia's "migration zone, the removal of boat arrivals to offshore processing centers in small Pacific island countries, with no prospect for resettlement in Australia, are against the spirit of international law.And as she points out, such measures are surprising in a country as wealthy, multicultural and big as Australia. But there is more to the country that muddled asylum policies.Over recent years Australia has impressed by making a determined bid to become serious players in the Asia-Pacific– or the Indo-Pacific as the Australians describe the region. Analysts say Australia is pulling its weight as a global middle power and also a Southern Hemisphere power.As Benjamin Reilly of Murdoch University underlines, “While engagement with East Asia and the United States remains the main game, Australian ‘soft power’ is increasing across the globe’s southern segment in a range of areas, from aid and trade to scientific research to peacekeeping.”Significantly, the G20 summit in 2014 will be held in Brisbane.  In Brussels, Australia has stalwartly pushed for stronger European Union engagement with Asia.Australia along with New Zealand joined the Asia Europe Meetings (ASEM) in 2010, many years after their application. Their membership has certainly helped to increase the credibility of ASEM and bring new perspectives into the club.In recent months, Australia has published a voluminous white paper on its Asian connections, urging students to learn more Asian languages, including of course Chinese.Relations with China may be volatile but exports of raw materials to the country have kept the Australian economy on an even keel.Not surprisingly, Abbott has said his first travel priorities would be Indonesia, China, Japan and South Korea, rather than traditional and long-standing allies like the United States and Britain.“Only after our regional and trading partners have been suitably attended to would I make the traditional trips to Washington and London,” he said, adding: “Decisions which impact on our national interests will be made in Jakarta, in Beijing, in Tokyo, in Seoul, as much as they will be made in Washington.

Asia-Europe increase focus on security (Originally published 17/07/13)

Trade and business have long dominated Asia-Europe relations. Economic links are still vitally important in relations between the two regions. But Asian and European policymakers are also steadily stepping up their engagement on security issues.The emphasis on Asia-Europe security ties is not new – but it is becoming stronger and more visible.In both regions, there is a growing awareness that while the “Asian Century” has so far focused on strong economic growth and development, Asia also needs to tackle many difficult and potentially explosive historical enmities and complex crises.Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Europeans too are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia, not least in view of the unprecedented level of economic interdependence between the two regions.This has meant strong European Union condemnation of North Korea’s missile and nuclear activities and calls for a negotiated settlement of conflicting national territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.Last year, the European Union signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region.High-level European and Asian representatives have met in recent months in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore, which EU HRVP Ashton attended this year for the first time.Discussions on security issues are also an important part of political pillar in ASEM, the process of Asia–Europe meetings launched in 1996.“Asia still has to deal with security issues that have been settled in Europe,” says Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European Union’s External Action Service (EEAS).“We admire Asia’s economic rise. But many Asian countries still face the challenges associated with nation and state-building. They are burdened by disputes and security flashpoints which need proper handling and solutions. If left unattended, these disputes could cause trouble for everyone,” he says.As Asian governments seek to build sustainable peace and stability in the region, Europe’s experience in healing historical wounds and reconciliation can be helpful.“We are interesting partners for Asia. We do not claim to be a "model". It’s not a question of copying Europe, it’s about learning from our past, including from our own mistakes, and seeking inspiration in what may be relevant.”Conventional military threats and conflicts are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to non-traditional security threats, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Europe has the know-how to work with Asia on questions like disaster-prevention and management, climate change, pandemics, terrorism and questions linked to food, water, energy and cyber security.The EU’s “comprehensive approach” to security calls for the deployment of a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.“Europe’s experience in community and institution-building and in constructing structures for regional security is an added asset for its partners,” says Isticioaia Budura.“We have learned how to engage in preventive diplomacy, confidence-building and establishing norms and rules to ensure regional peace and stability.”Peace in Europe was a long time coming. In contrast, “Asia is in a rush…so we must find a smart way to share all relevant experiences,” he adds.ASEM provides an ideal, and “unbelievably meaningful” format for Asia-Europe exchanges on all issues of mutual interest, including security challenges, says Isticioaia Budura.“It allows us to better understand the complexity of developments in Asia… to take the pulse, take into account challenges and see how we can contribute.”Regular ASEM meetings help Asia and Europe to improve their mutual understanding, identify common interests and cooperation, he says, adding: “It is good to have Asian and European leaders talking to each other.”“In a process of globalisation which keeps accelerating, ASEM has a very distinct relevance.”Since its launch, ASEM has worked to prevent the decoupling of regions and stopping Asia and Europe from turning inwards. This is still true. “We are moving together in the same direction,” Isticioaia Budura underlines.Despite the Eurozone crisis, Europe is continuing to engage with Asia. By voicing their confidence in Europe’s economic future, Asian countries, for their part, have helped to stabilise the Euro.ASEM’s informality, large membership and flexibility mean that all countries have the freedom to bring up any issue that interests them. “Both regions can talk about their major concerns. They can choose what they see as relevant,” says Isticioaia Budura.Discussions focus on questions as diverse as disaster-prevention, non-proliferation, disarmament, human rights, energy and water management. In these and other areas, “there is a useful exchange of information and experience,” he notes.When they meet in October next year, ASEM leaders will focus on recovery, growth and jobs, Isticioaia Budura predicts.The ASEM message is also likely to be that Europe can work with Asia to build sustained peace in the region and tackle non-traditional security challenges.

EU needs stronger focus on Asian security (Originally published 01/07/13)

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s decision to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia’s premier multilateral security platform, is an important step forward in Europe’s quest for stronger engagement on security issues with Asia.The EU has so far played up its economic credentials in Asia.  Certainly, Asians value Europe as the region’s second largest trading partner and the biggest investor.That’s only part of the story, however.  As Asia faces up to a host of old and new tensions, it’s time Europe switched the focus from trade to security in its conversation with Asia.Europeans have long believed – and many Asians have argued – that the absence of “hard” military power erodes Europe’s standing in Asia.  Europe’s “soft power” was viewed as inferior to American and Chinese “hard power”.This was possibly true a decade ago.  But Asia’s remarkable rise in the 21^st Century – and China’s rapid ascendance as the region’s dominant nation - has prompted a radical reassessment of the challenges facing the region.The US “pivot” or rebalancing toward Asia responds to some of the region’s military concerns linked to China’s rise.But military threats are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to tackling non-traditional security issues, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Uneasy about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, many in Asia believe they can learn from Europe’s valuable experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Indonesia’s former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, says the “Asian Century” must be about more than dynamic economic growth rates; rising Asia must also become a region of sustained peace and stability.The point is also made strongly by Javier Solana, the EU’s former foreign and security policy chief.  As an “unfinished continent” where historical wounds have not fully healed and where reconciliation has not been achieved, Asia needs norms, rules and institutions which ensure peaceful co-existence, Solana wrote recently.Having successfully reconciled once-warring parties, Europe has a “unique toolbox on offer”, Solana says.The EU must, however, become better at projecting these special qualities and skills.Ashton did point out at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore last month that the EU’s strength lies in its ability to work on a “comprehensive” approach which includes a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.And she is right: this mix does certainly make Europe a “unique global partner for Asia on security issues.”The message was delivered again at the ARF.  It needs to be repeated and articulated with more conviction, resonance – and empathy.  Asians want to learn from Europe’s successes in regional integration and institution-building.  They do not want to hear lectures about their weaknesses.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues will require a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.It means regular participation in Asian meetings by European ministers and senior EU officials as well as constructive contributions to ways in which the ARF could move from its current focus on confidence-building to preventive diplomacy.Proposals to organise a gathering of all signatories of the ASEAN Treaty on Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the security blueprint for the region which the EU signed last year can also be pursued.The EU’s security interest in the region is not just about ensuring the safety of sea lanes and navigation in Asian waters.  Europe can help and inspire Asia as it seeks to ease historical enmities, build sustained peace and tackle non-traditional security challenges.

Exploring ideas on ASEM’s future (Originally published 03/06/13)

Ever since the first high-profile Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Bangkok in March 1996, Asian and European leaders, ministers and officials have been working on myriad fronts to forge a stronger region-to-region partnership on issues as diverse as green growth, global peace and prosperity, human rights, education and urbanisation.Their work may not always make the headlines. And the progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms and that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.With the next ASEM summit set to be held in Brussels in autumn 2014, the race is on to try and inject fresh impetus into a process which all 51 ASEM partners agree is a compelling necessity – but one which must be deepened and made more dynamic to stay relevant in a rapidly-changing world.ASEM foreign ministers, who gather in New Delhi on November 11-12, are expected to come up with fresh ideas for reviving the Asia-Europe partnership.As illustrated at a recent symposium held in Yangzhou, China, the problem facing ASEM is not a lack of initiatives on revitalizing the relationship; rather, the challenge is to find common ground among the many suggestions being put forward by ASEM partners – and then to refine and streamline recommendations before presentation to ministers and leaders.Significantly, all 51 partners continue to underline the strategic significance of ASEM in the 21st Century. The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding partners in 1996 – is seen as a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour.Over the years, ASEM has also served as a “new Silk Road” connecting the two continents and providing a unique platform for dialogue and cooperation, says an Asian official, adding: “Asia and Europe need each other…we are closely interconnected and interdependent and draw on each other’s’ strengths.”European policymakers say they are similarly confident that ASEM has great merits. “Its relevance has increased. ASEM is informal, comprehensive and still very attractive,” said one European official in Yangzhou.The challenge is to maintain ASEM’s unique informality, networking and flexibility but also make it more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities.ASEM should identify “more cooperation projects which are visible, tangible and serve the interests of people,” said an Asian official, adding: “ASEM should be a forum for action.”More frequent meetings of ASEM economic officials and ministers were mooted, with participants also suggesting that ASEM should be used to explore new ideas, to stimulate and facilitate progress in other fora and encourage capacity-building across sectors.The need for more ASEM contacts with civil society, including members of parliament, business representatives, scholars and journalists as well as local authorities, was underlined.The most difficult task facing policymakers is a much-awaited overhaul of ASEM’s working methods in order to make meetings – especially leaders’ summits held once every two years – more interesting, relevant and productive.Recapturing the excitement and energy evident at ASEM’s launch in 1996 will not be easy, however. Over the years, ASEM meetings have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have also become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions. “These meeting are a bottleneck in ASEM” said one senior official in Yangzhou. “We have become a housekeeping body.”Instead of reviewing a series of global and regional developments, ASEM summits should have a more streamlined agenda, allowing leaders to engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.Leaders and foreign ministers should also meet in a so-called “retreat” format to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue. “We want them to really get to know each other, forge friendships and understanding,” said one participant.Chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings should be short, simple and to-the-point rather than long and procedural. They should be media-friendly and understandable to the general public, helping to enhance ASEM visibility.The long-running debate on whether or not ASEM needs a secretariat to provide institutional back-up was discussed. The drive to set up an ASEM Secretariat is essentially driven by Asian partners of ASEM who feel the need for such an institution on their side.Europeans, on the other hand, are generally satisfied with the current situation since the European External Action Service plays an important coordination role for European partners.As preparations intensify for the meeting of foreign ministers in Delhi, the conversation on strengthening ASEM is likely to gain pace. The aim is to prepare not only for the summit in Brussels in 2014 but for ASEM’s 20th anniversary celebrations in 2016.As participants in Yangzhou said, the upcoming anniversary should not only take stock of ASEM cooperation so far but also set it on a new and revitalised course for the future.

A roadmap for strengthened EU-ASEAN ties (Originally published 21/05/13)

Relations between the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are finally picking up much-needed momentum.Recent talks held in Ho Chi Minh City between EU and ASEAN senior officials appear to have made important headway in implementing a new agenda for cooperation, with both sides seeking ways to take the relationship to a higher and more strategic level.The switch from recrimination over issues like Myanmar and human rights to serious consultation on non-traditional security challenges and other questions is indeed welcome.  It is time the EU took relations with ASEAN as seriously as other global players, including the United States.The progress made in Vietnam now needs to be followed up urgently by efforts to improve the structure of EU-ASEAN cooperation, inject more ambitious content and change the tone and style of the relationship.A changing relationshipMuch has changed in Europe and in Southeast Asia since the signature of the EU-ASEAN cooperation agreement in March 1980.The last 33 years have seen a massive change in the contour, ambitions and role of the European Union. ASEAN has also undergone deep transformation through the adoption of the ASEAN charter, expansion of the club to include new members and a renewed drive for strengthened economic integration.Both the EU and ASEAN have succeeded in bringing peace to their regions.  Both have worked for economic prosperity and both have to deal with the challenge of big and difficult neighbours.Increasingly, both face a similar uphill task in ensuring their relevance, influence and importance in the 21^st Century.ASEAN has to affirm its centrality in a rapidly changing region which includes an increasingly assertive China.  It is also struggling to maintain its unity in the face of Beijing.Europe is still battling with the currency crisis, massive unemployment and has to adapt to living in a world where the power has shifted from the West to Asia. When it comes to China – or Russia - the EU is still struggling to speak with one voice.The EU-ASEAN relationship today is also very different from what it was all those years ago – reflecting the changes in both organisations.The challenge facing both sides is to take their relationship into the future – into the 21^st Century.  This can be done through changes in three key areas: E-ASEAN structures, content and tone:Structures: 2012 saw several significant improvements in EU-ASEAN relations: the EU acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, ASEAN’s core document for ensuring peace and stability in the region.A recent meeting of EU-ASEAN foreign ministers in Brunei pledged to further improve bilateral ties between the two regions by adopting a Plan of Action.Significantly also, Baroness Catherine Ashton, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, attended the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh in July after a much-remarked two-year absence.In addition, the EU decision to lift sanctions against Myanmar, giving a boost to relations with ASEAN.However, more needs to be done to further broaden, deepen and strengthen the current level of EU-ASEAN engagement.  It is important that the momentum achieved in the last year is not lost.The EU and ASEAN need to recognise each other as strategic partners. It is quite surprising that this has not been done given the importance of the economic relationship and shared regional integration goals.This will necessarily mean the organization of regular summits between EU and ASEAN leaders – although these gatherings need not be annual.  They could be held back-to-back with the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM)  which is organised every two years.The EU should appoint a special ambassador in Jakarta with sole responsibility for relations with ASEAN to ensure implementation of the ambitious Plan of Action on EU-ASEAN relations adopted last year in Brunei.The head of such an EU delegation would have the task of overseeing EU-ASEAN relations, establishing contacts with the ASEAN Committee of Permanent Representatives and other important ASEAN officials.  This is already being done by the US, China and Japan which have appointed special ambassadors to deal with ASEAN.  Australia is in the process of sending its own ASEAN envoy to Jakarta.If EU-ASEAN relations are to be brought to a “higher level” within the context of a global power shift to Asia-Pacific and regional security dynamics, the management of ASEAN-EU relations needs to be a full-time job.The conclusion of an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement would also boost the relationship.  Although this is unlikely to be possible in the short-term, it should remain a medium-term goal for both sides.The EU has already concluded a free trade deal with Singapore and is negotiating with Thailand.  These and others in the pipeline should become building blocks for a region-to-region accord once the ASEAN economic community takes more concrete form as of 2016.Increase ASEAN visibility ASEAN also needs to enhance its visibility in Europe.  Very little is known about the organization, its ambitions and achievements in Europe.   Public support for stronger EU-ASEAN ties can only be built up if there is wider media coverage and discussions in universities and in think tanks about the subject.Content:Trade and economic issues will remain the backbone of the relationship, with both sides also working on expanding their investment flows.  Sharing best practice on regional integration also continues to be important in view of ASEAN’s enhanced regional ambitions and the need to build ASEAN capacity in an increased number of areas.The EU can provide lessons in building connectivity – especially as regards institutions and people, students, academics, scientists. Discussions on human rights – once a taboo question for ASEAN countries – are gaining momentum as attitudes change in ASEAN.EU special envoy for human rights Stavros Lambrinidis was recently in Jakarta for talks with the ASEAN Inter Governmental Human Rights Commission (AICHR), the first such encounter between the two sides.Lambrinidis also met with the ASEAN Committee of Permanent Representatives to ASEAN, as well as other ASEAN stakeholders, including regional civil society organisations.In a break with past practice of lecturing ASEAN on human rights deficiencies, the EU envoy underlined that the basis of EU-ASEAN cooperation would be based on "mutual inspiration”.Meanwhile, EU development cooperation and humanitarian aid programmes remain crucially important for the poorer ASEAN countries, including Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.The EU will never be a military power in the Asia-Pacific. But as ASEAN forges full speed ahead with constructing a region-wide security architecture, the EU needs to define how best it can contribute to regional peace in the Asia-Pacific.The focus should be on non-traditional security, confidence building measures and possibly joint exploitation of the resources in the South China Seas.Maritime security, disaster Resilience, conflict prevention and crisis management as well as peace-building are other subjects where the EU has know-how and experience as are challenges related to health, terrorism, cyber security, climate change and the environment.These moves – many of which are already being explored - would have the added advantage of helping beef up the case for EU membership of the East Asia Summit.Finally, the EU must move to ease travel restrictions in place for ASEAN citizens and encourage youth exchanges and the establishment of study centers in European and Asian universities that focus on the relationship between Asia-Pacific and Europe.Tone and Style:Relations between ASEAN and the European Union have too long been complicated by a narrative of competition – and a history of mistrust.ASEAN has never liked European “arrogance” in lecturing and hectoring them on their perceived deficits and weaknesses. But people in the region admire much that is European, including European technology, products and culture. To keep growing, both sides need each other’s markets and investments.Europeans should steer clear of any prescriptive approach to the way the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should evolve.ASEAN decision-making is slow, messy and the organisation is currently divided over how best to deal with China. But this is no different from intra-EU debates on the future of the Union and Europe’s own failure to speak with one voice on China.The EU cannot expect imitation, but – despite the current economic crisis -  it can inspire and help ASEAN on its future trajectory.The EU and ASEAN have made a good start in reviewing their relationship and seeking fresh avenues for cooperation. The meeting in Vietnam appears to have been constructive and positive. The effort must be maintained in the months ahead so that both sides can work more closely together to tackle complex 21st Century challenges.

EU can help Pakistan’s new PM tackle tough agenda (Originally published 13/05/13)

As Pakistan’s next prime minister, Nawaz Sharif faces daunting domestic and foreign policy challenges.While attention is inevitably focused on Sharif’s relations with the United States, India and Afghanistan, the election of a new democratically elected government also opens up new avenues for stronger EU-Pakistan relations.The EU should move fast to forge stronger and more comprehensive ties with Islamabad, including the convening of a third EU-Pakistan summit to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.Landmark elections – but what happens next?The landmark elections, marking the first transfer of power between two elected civilian governments in Pakistan, give hope that 67 years after independence, democracy is finally taking root in the South Asian nation of 180 million people.The EU’s chief election observer, Michael Gahler, has noted “considerable improvements” in the conduct of the polls compared to five years ago as regards voters’ rolls, independence of the Election Commission and   media freedom.  Unlike in 2008, there were also no reports of widespread rigging or bogus polling stations.Although it’s long hide and seek with democracy may have ended for the moment, Pakistan remains a troubled and fragile state.Violence and bloodshed marred the election campaign and polling day in in many cities as the Taliban relentlessly pursued their anti-democracy agenda by targeting secular parties, sparing only former cricketer Imran Khan’s Tehreek-I-Insaf party.Pakistan’s economy is in shambles, with talks expected soon on an International Monetary Fund bail-out package.  Corruption is rampant. The army and security services continue to exert an unhealthy influence over politics and policy.  And relations with the US as well as most neighbouring countries, including India and Afghanistan, remain tense.Pakistani people deserve credit

There is more to Pakistan than violence, discrimination and economic decline, however.  For almost 7 decades marked by flawed democracy, feudal greed, military misrule and terrorism, the country has worked because of the courage and tenacity of its people, including the millions of Pakistanis who live and work abroad – and send millions of dollars in remittances – to a country they still call home.

Last week’s elections provided additional evidence of the resilience, determination and dynamism of millions of men and women who defied threats of violence, intimidation and centuries-old discrimination to cast their ballots in unprecedented numbers.No room for generalsMany millions of young Pakistanis voted for the first time.  The turnout of women voters was impressive.  An election commission spokesman said turnout had been around 60%, compared to 44 % in 2008.Sharif, an industrialist who has been prime minister twice before - his last period in office ending 14 years ago in a military coup followed by his trial and exile – has said generals have no place in politics.  He has also said he will talk to the Taliban in order to end an insurgency which has raged across the country for the last few years.His dismissal as premier in the 1990s was greeted by relief by many Pakistanis but many are hoping that Sharif has learned lessons from his last time in power.Certainly, his party has a good record on economic management.He advocates free-market economics and is likely to pursue privatization and deregulation to revive flagging growth.Formidable tasks aheadThe tasks he faces are formidable.  Public discontent over endemic corruption is rife; the economy is crippled by chronic power cuts and crumbling infrastructure.  One of Sharif’s first likely tasks will be to negotiate with the IMF for a multi-billion-dollar bailout. To raise domestic revenues, he will have to bite the bullet and increase tax collection.Sharif’s government faces the challenge of putting tense relations with the US back on an even keel. He has vowed to review Pakistan's support for America's "war on terror" but is unlikely to jeopardise 2 billion dollars in annual US aid.  Washington’s support will also be essential if Pakistan is to secure desperately needed aid from the IMF, the World Bank and other global institutions. He will also have to improve ties with Afghanistan and India.While in office the last time around, Sharif tried to make peace with India but his initiatives were opposed by the army.  There is concern that plans for stronger India-Pakistan trade relations – something that Sharif favours – could once again be jeopardised by an uncompromising army.Pakistan will have a crucial role to play in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country in 2014.Relations with Pakistan's traditional ally, China will remain strong but Beijing is worried that militant Uighur Muslims are still receiving training in Pakistan.Hold another EU-Pakistan summitThe EU should lose no time in seeking an upgrade of ties with Pakistan’s new government.  A third EU-Pakistan summit should be organised without too much delay and both sides should move quickly to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.EU foreign ministers admitted earlier this year that the so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” with Pakistan needed to be reinvigorated through early meetings with the new Pakistani ministers and senior officials, saying progress in such fora could lead to a third EU-Pakistan summit.

There is room for a strategic shift in EU-Pakistan relations from an almost-exclusively trade-focused agenda to a more holistic programme of cooperation.

It’s not just about tradeCertainly, Pakistan needs help to boost its exports to Europe and elsewhere.   The EU has already given Pakistan improved market access by introducing autonomous trade preferences following a WTO waiver.  The hope now is that Pakistan will secure access next year to the GSP Plus scheme for zero-duty, zero-quota exports to the EU.A strategic dialogue launched earlier this year between Catherine Ashton, EU foreign policy chief, and her former Pakistani colleague Hina Rabbani Khar seeks to cover cooperation in areas of trade, investment, human rights, governance, energy, education and socio economic development.The rhetoric needs to be translated into action.  To change the dynamics of the so-far relatively lukewarm EU-Pakistan relationship, the EU will have to pay more sustained attention to Pakistan.Once on the periphery of the EU’s Asia policy, Pakistan is climbing slowly up the EU’s foreign policy agenda, mainly because of the strong link with security in Afghanistan, connections between tribal areas in Pakistan and Europe’s “home grown” terrorists and persistent US and British insistence that the EU should help stabilise the country.A long engagementThe adoption by EU foreign ministers last year of a so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” aimed at boosting civilian institutions and civil society in Pakistan as well as a commitment to start a strategic dialogue with the country are recent illustrations of stronger EU interest in Pakistan.It has not always been an easy relationship, however.  Pakistan has used most of its time and energy to lobby for better market access for its textile exports and bristled at EU comments on its treatment of women and minorities.Volatile politics in Pakistan have also meant the EU has had to constantly adjust and re-adjust its approaches depending on whether the army or civilians are in power.The EU does not have America’s clout in Pakistan.  The absence of an EU role in providing military support has built up Europe’s credibility with Pakistani civil society but has also meant lack of leverage with the military.Meanwhile, strong EU-Pakistan economic ties – the EU is Pakistan's largest trading partner - have also not translated into significant political influence.The EU needs to be more innovative and creative in forging a new strategy which looks at Pakistan not merely as a developing country, requiring traditional development aid actions, but as a fragile country in transition which needs help and assistance to modernise and reform its flagging economy, reinforce weakened political institutions and to strengthen the rule of law.Work on supporting the strengthening of democratic institutions and the electoral framework with particular focus on institution building, legislative reform and voter participation will have to continue. Pakistan’s army and security services still need counter-terrorism training to tackle the insurgency and fight radicalisation.The EU and its member states are beginning to invest time and effort in crafting a multi-faceted strategy capable of responding to the multiple and complex challenges facing Pakistan.Such actions must continue and expand, with the EU also encouraging closer regional integration in South Asia.  Pakistan will continue to need support from its friends to stay on the democratic path.  Successful elections alone will not anchor democracy in Pakistan.

Nobody doubts Asia’s rise, but the issue is how to fashion new partnerships (Originally published 10/04/13)

Relations between Asia and the European Union have too long been complicated by a narrative of competition – and a history of mistrust. Many in both Asia and Europe cling to the out-dated black-and-white view that the rise of Asia inevitably means the decline of Europe. It’s a vision where Europeans refuse to adjust to Asia’s economic power, and still seek to create a world in their own image.European politicians and policymakers have done little to correct the impression of an EU that is reluctant to adapt to a rapidly changing world. Many of them stoke fears of globalisation and Asia’s growing economic and political clout. They reinforce the image of an uncertain and uneasy Europe faced with a self-confident and assertive Asia.In Asia too, many influential women and men believe that the EU as an established status quo power is unwilling to adjust to Asia’s rise. Others warned that Europe is becoming “irrelevant” as Asia becomes more influential and powerful.This discussion is important and intellectually stimulating. It has been useful in focusing Asian and European minds on the changing world order, and spotlighting the need for stronger Asia-Europe understanding and engagement. But it is time to move on.The simplistic narrative of Asia versus Europe, of winner-takes-all, and of one region being “better” than the other, has far outlived its usefulness and needs to change. In an increasingly inter-dependent globalised world, where no one nation, bloc or region can claim to lead the rest, where security is about more than military spending and where nations’ are connected to each other by a dense web of trade and investments, Europe-Asia co-operation has become the only option.It’s not about whether Europeans have the time, energy or interest in Asia or whether Asians think Europe is still relevant. It’s about economic growth, moving beyond the eurozone crisis and the challenge of ensuring sustained global growth. It’s about dealing with climate change, pandemics, humanitarian disasters and poverty. It’s also about preventing tensions and conflicts that endanger global peace and security.For all their criticism of Europe – and despite the eurozone crisis – even the fiercest Asian commentators recognise that Asians can learn much from Europe. Asians have never liked European “arrogance” in lecturing and hectoring them on their perceived deficits and weaknesses. But they admire much that is European, including European technology, products and culture. To keep growing, Asians need European markets and investments.Asia-Europe relations in this new era cannot be dominated by a narrative of rivalry and competition. The focus has to be on partnership to deal with complex 21st Century challenges.Clearly, the EU must make room in the Bretton Woods Institutions for Asia’s rising powers. Pressure from Asia for such changes could help speed-up a decision on the EU having a single seat in these fora – and perhaps even in the United Nations Security Council.Europeans may no longer set the global agenda, but the “European values” they espouse are really universal norms and freedoms which have been adopted by all UN members. The EU can be less aggressive in promoting them, but should not abandon themIt is true that Europeans should steer clear of any prescriptive approach to the way the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should evolve. It and its 10 members have a distinctive approach to integration; ASEAN decision-making is slow, messy and the organisation is currently divided over how best to deal with China. But this is no different from intra-EU debates on the future of the Union and Europe’s own failure to speak with one voice on China. The EU cannot expect imitation, but it can inspire and help ASEAN on its future trajectory.Although there is no European military presence in Asia, the EU can make a constructive contribution to the region’s security discussions in areas such as preventive diplomacy, conflict resolution and disaster management. The sparring over Asia’s rise and Europe’s fall must give way to a less confrontational approach based on partnership and co-operation.