View from Abroad: EU must engage urgently with China (Originally published 15/11/2014 at dawn.com)
China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.
View from Abroad: Asia’s affair with US leaves Europe out in the cold (Originally published 8/11/2014 at dawn.com)
America continues to loom large over the Asia-Pacific region. Whether it’s about trade, politics or security, Asian eyes tend to focus almost solely on Washington. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines feel safer under the US security umbrella. India wants to forge a stronger relationship with Washington. Even China, the region’s most economically vibrant and powerful nation, seeks a special “great power” relationship with America.Hence the focus on the US-led Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit opening in two-day Beijing on Nov 10 and the East Asia Summit from Nov 13-14 in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. A few days later, the spotlight will move to Brisbane, Australia, for the G20 summit.Certainly, the APEC agenda is impressive, with leaders expected to agree to a study on negotiating a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). But Asia’s enduring affair with America leaves only a small space for an Asia-Europe relationship.Significantly, Europeans will be absent from the jamboree in Beijing. The EU has been pressing for entry into the EAS which now also includes the US and Russia but Asians are in no hurry to open the door.Some European countries and the European Commission will, however, participate in the G20 meeting.And yet, there is more to the Asia-Europe relationship than meets the eye. America’s so-called “pivot” to Asia may have grabbed the headlines, but the EU has spent the last three and a half years upping its own game in Asia.The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Milan last month is a case in point. The summit may not have made headlines worldwide but over 50 European and Asian leaders made an array of pledges on boosting growth, continuing economic and financial reform and building stronger Europe-Asia connectivity.Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit — “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” — allowed for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial non-traditional security threats linked to food, water, and energy security.In addition, the meeting brought back much of the informality that marked the first few ASEM summits by including a “retreat” session during which leaders — with only one aide in attendance — were able to have a free-flowing discussion on regional and international issues, including Ebola and the threat posed by the so-called Islamic State.Attendance was exceptionally high, with all key Asian and European leaders — apart from the new Indonesian president and the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers — taking part in the sessions.Even before they meet in Beijing, there was a quick handshake in Milan between estranged neighbours Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Japan’s Shinzo Abe. Russian President Vladimir Putin was in attendance. Also, the EU finally held a long-awaited first-ever summit with Asean leaders. Kazakhstan and Croatia joined ASEM, bringing the total number of ASEM participants to 53.Leaders agreed on an ambitious programme until 2016, the year when ASEM, under Mongolian chairmanship, will celebrate its 20th anniversary. Countries agreed to work in smaller groups or clusters on 16 “tangible cooperation areas” including disaster management, renewable energy, higher education, connectivity and information technology.The challenge is to keep up the momentum generated in Milan. The good news is that ASEM’s resilience has allowed it to survive many upheavals since its launch in Bangkok in 1996. Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important ASEM meetings.Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo ops. The current mood is positive as ASEM seeks a stronger focus on content. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. Closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts is also essential.In the future ASEM needs an even sharper focus on growth and jobs, combating extremism and tackling hard and soft security issues. Women in both Asia and Europe face many societal and economic challenges. Freedom of expression is under attack in both regions. Populist parties and nationalism are becoming a threat to diversity and societal peace in both regions.Finally, ASEM faces the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership. ASEM’s 20th anniversary in 2016 should set the Asia-Europe partnership on a new and more dynamic track — that could perhaps generate the kind of excitement that APEC does.
View from Abroad: A 21st century Silk Road (Originally published 25/10/2014 at dawn.com)
I have been in China for five days and my brain is on fire. Perceptions, discussions, confrontations crowd my mind, jostling for space, demanding attention. My Chinese colleagues have so much to tell me about their country’s new priorities and they want to know so much about the future of Europe. We discuss. We argue.
The debates go on and on at the round-table meeting in Changsha in Hunan province that we are attending. As day turns into night, the debates not only dominate my waking hours, they enter my dreams.Europe and China have much to talk about. We are so different and yet we have much in common. There is the shared challenge of encouraging sustainable growth, tackling problems in our respective neighbourhoods, dealing with an ageing population, making sure we eliminate inequalities.But much also separates us. Europe believes in democracy, elections and human rights. China wants western countries to stop pontificating and giving Beijing lessons on democracy. The focus should be on governance, not on elections and other the rituals of democracy, one Chinese academic tells us.“We have to treat each other equally ... the West should stop looking down on us,” another Chinese colleague insists at the round-table discussion between European and Chinese think tanks.Indeed, much has changed — and is changing — in Beijing. President Xi Jinping has embarked on an unprecedented national reform drive, demanding an end to corruption, stronger implementation of the rule of law, a rebalancing of the economy from investments and exports to domestic consumption.And for the last year, President Xi and Prime Minister Li Keqiang have been promoting the ambitious idea of a Silk Road which would connect China to Europe, weaving its way across Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe on the one hand while also building connections through a maritime route which would include the Maldives and Sri Lanka and many South-East Asian states.Full disclosure: I confess that I am completely fascinated, intrigued by the initiative. As a young girl growing up in Pakistan, I spent hours reading of the adventures of the intrepid men and women who plyed the Silk Road, connecting towns, industries and people.Exotic looking Chinese traders, with their bundles of silk, satins and brocades, made their way to Islamabad, persuading my mother and aunts to buy their goods. I watched from the sidelines, amused by the good-natured bargaining, the chuckles resulting in mutually satisfactory transactions.Years later, I went up the Silk Road — or rather the silk track — to Hunza and Gilgit and felt my heart almost break at the exquisite beauty of the landscape. Many hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani workers died while building the road in such a hostile land. Their sacrifice was enormous, their memories preserved in plaques along the route.That was then. The Road was about romance and adventure. Today it’s about commerce. China’s new concept of the Silk Road has little to do with romance — and a lot to do with business.Still it is a visionary idea which is getting much attention in Asia and Europe. And so it should. As they did when they came out with their ‘China Dream’ concept a year or so ago, the ‘Silk Road’ initiative is a work in progress.Beijing has yet to articulate its ambitions in detail. “We are not yet talking about a strategy,” says a Chinese colleague.Clearly, China wants to use the Road to increase its trade relations with countries along the route. Beijing is interested in Central Asia’s energy resources. It wants to counterbalance Russia’s political influence in the region.Also, the Silk Road provides a strong counter move to America’s much-touted ‘pivot’ to Asia and to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement that the US wants to negotiate with countries in the region but without China.As I listen to the discussion, I am convinced that this is an idea whose time has come — again. China has the political clout to make it happen. And it has the money to finance many of the projects.Still, it won’t be easy. The 21st century Silk Road will not only allow goods to be trade freely across borders, it could also facilitate the cross-frontier movement of drugs, arms and terrorists.As such, the proposal needs to be developed with care and caution.As I prepare to leave Changsha, my head is still spinning with new information and ideas. I dream of ancient bazaars and long, winding roads through mountains and plains. The Silk Road as envisioned by Beijing may be based on national self interest and, given the challenges, may never see the light of day.But the vision of an interconnected world it articulates is worth preserving — and developing.
View from Abroad: Western nightmares are just bad dreams (Originally published 19/10/2014 at dawn.com)
It's the stuff of Western nightmares: imagine if, one day, a strong China and a weak but assertive Russia “gang up” against the United States and Europe, winning more friends and allies and imposing their writ on the rest of the world?The recent high profile meetings between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been watched carefully — and fretfully — in all Western capitals with uneasy policymakers seeking to understand if this is just a passing show of affection or if the two countries are planning to build a more solid partnership.Beijing has made clear that it has no intention of being part of any geopolitical power play being hatched by Moscow. China’s interests are global. Indeed before he met Putin, Li was in Germany striking two billion euro worth of business deals. He then headed to Italy for more headline-grabbing commercial overtures.Beijing’s standard line is that it has no allies, only friends. That’s not how Russia views the world. Russia in contrast is under Western sanctions. The EU is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas while the Nato military alliance talks menacingly about Russian actions in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.Some warn it is the beginning of a second Cold War. Clearly, it isn’t. The multipolar world today is a very different place from what it was in the Cold War years.Still, some thing is afoot. The Russians are working overtime to woo the Chinese. Beijing is clearly interested in accessing more Russian oil and gas, providing Moscow with new markets as Europe diversifies away from Russian energy. Some 50 agreements and memorandums of understanding are reported to be signed during Li’s visit to Moscow, including in areas related to high-speed transit and finance. China is also eager to supply Russia with fruit and vegetables, products that Moscow is no longer importing from Europe.Western attention is focused on Russian-Chinese cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which some in the West view as a potential competitor for Nato. And the recent decision to launch the BRICS bank is seen as a joint challenge by Russia and China to the post-war liberal order and the supremacy of the Bretton Woods institutions.Both China and Russia are often on the same side on tackling global flashpoints, eschewing military intervention unless sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.There’s no doubt, however, that while it may want to stay friends and do business with Moscow, China has no interest in being seen as Russia’s best friend. As friendships go, in fact, the focus in many envious Western capitals is on the ‘special relationship’ between China and Germany.While in Berlin, Li and German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed deals worth approximately US$18.1 billion, covering cooperation in areas including agriculture, automotive, telecom, healthcare and education.Li requested that Germany help to relax the EU’s high-tech export restrictions to China and continue expanding bilateral trade and investment. He further stated that the two countries should continue working together on feasibility studies concerning the proposed China-EU Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed guidelines covering 110 cooperative agreements over the next five to 10 years.At the Hamburg Summit organised by Germany’s top industrialists that was attended by Premier Li the message was clear: China is not only the the biggest market for German companies, it is also a growing one. China’s huge national reform programme agenda, opens up exciting new export and investment opportunities for German — and other European — companies. Discussions focused on China’s massive urbanisation needs which can be met by European companies.Chinese investments into Germany and the EU are soaring. Significantly, unlike many other countries, China has shown a strong interest in the future course of Asem, the Asia Europe Meeting forum which is often criticised for being a mere talk shop.At the Asem summit in Milan last week, Li waxed lyrical about Asem’s role in improving connectivity between Asia and Europe, underlining his vision of building a Silk Road between Asia.Li knows he is on a winning streak. As the Financial Times newspaper reported recently, Chinese investors are surging into the EU.In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over 6.1bn euro — less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly 27bn euro, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.Not surprisingly, the EU and China are in the process of negotiating a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting each others’ investments but also ensuring better marker access.China is clearly not about to ditch Russia. But Beijing’s focus is on the growing markets of Europe. Western policymakers can sleep easy. For many nights.
View from Abroad: Europeans challenge Germany on austerity (Originally published 11/10/2014 at dawn.com)
With apologies to Jane Austen, it’s (also) a truth universally acknowledged that Germany is Europe’s undisputed leader. Its powerful economy, large population, mostly stable politics and mostly responsible politicians assure that Berlin looms large over the European Union landscape.Nothing happens in the EU without Germany’s blessing. For years that was a good thing. It isn’t any longer.Whisper it softly but Germany’s EU partners are getting a little fed up with Berlin’s writ. This is especially the case when it comes to agreement on how best to bring economic growth back into the flagging 28 EU economies.Germany’s focus on austerity is coming under harsh criticism — some of it veiled, some of it open — for jeopardising Europe’s economic recovery.Disaffection with Germany is spreading beyond economics. EU insiders complain in private at Berlin’s growing influence in key EU institutions, its ability to grab some very senior EU jobs for its nationals or close friends and its newly-found assertiveness in areas such as foreign and security policy.Europeans liked a Germany that always said “yes”, kept trying to atone for its role in the two World Wars and opened its wallet whenever others in the EU needed help.Linked up with former adversary France, Germany was the “locomotive” that kept the EU moving up and forward, through economic and monetary, the negotiation and implementation of different constitutional treaties and kept the flame burning on issues like further European integration.It’s different now. Germany is doing all that and more. And its EU partners like it less and less.What went wrong? In fact, the economy. Ever since the Eurozone crisis reared its ugly head, Germany as the bloc’s healthiest economy, has been calling the shots, insisting that governments across the bloc must tighten their belts, cut spending and talk and walk austerity.The tide is changing, however. Across Europe, national leaders, policymakers and economists are starting to challenge Germany’s insistence on budget austerity as a precondition to healthy growth.France is in, what some observers refer to as, an “open revolt” against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s continued demands for deficit reduction in the face of slowing growth.Italy has warned against too rigidly following Germany’s preferred approach. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi and IMF head Christine Lagarde are also pushing for Germany to loosen up.Critics of austerity say that more government spending would increase demand for goods and services in Europe and help avert a dangerous fall into deflation, a downward spiral in wages and prices that can cripple an economy for years.Proponents of austerity, which include the Dutch, Austrians and Scandinavians and the three Baltic states, say that governments that fail to get their budget deficits and accumulated debt under control risk losing the ability to borrow at affordable rates in the bond markets and sowing the seeds of financial instability.The debate is unusually “philosophical”, not just economic, say observers. Warning against an escalation of mutual recriminations, the respected former Italian prime minister Mario Monti said the divergences of policy revealed divergences of “national cultures”.Matteo Renzi, the current Italian Premier, has said more bluntly that Berlin has no right to lecture its partners, urging Berlin — and the European Commission which now vets national budgets — to show more understanding for countries with no growth and high unemployment.French Prime Minister Manuel Vall, meanwhile, has unveiled a “no-austerity budget” designed to cut the deficit more slowly than austerity advocates would like.Monti has especially urged the EU (and Berlin) to consider more favourable treatment for public investments within existing rules.Critics of Germany point out that while Berlin is keeping the eurozone in fiscal chains, the United States has loosened the reins — and that thanks to fiscal stimulus, the American economy is starting to grow.At least for the moment, Berlin appears unwilling to deviate from its plan. But change may be around the corner. After all, while she is still very popular in her ninth year in power, Merkel is also under fire at home.In a new book, The Germany Illusion, one of the country’s leading economists, Marcel Fratzscher, takes the government to task for declining to invest in infrastructure and failing to encourage private investment or foster a modern service sector that would yield better pay and thus fuel higher consumer spending.Perhaps, Germany may finally listen. Latest forecasts spotlight a slowdown in the German economy, with economists underlining that the last thing the faltering European economy needs is a sudden downturn in Germany.But others argue that a bout of German weakness may be precisely what is required to convince Merkel to loosen the fiscal reins at home and provide Europe with a dose of stimulus that struggling states like France and Italy have long been seeking.If she does that, Europeans may once again rediscover their earlier respect for Merkel. Unlike the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Merkel, as the ‘Iron Lady’ in charge of the future of both Germany and Europe, should not be afraid of “turning”.
View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)
The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.
APPOINTMENT OF FIRST EU ENVOY TO ASEAN WILL BOOST TIES (Originally published 25/09/14)
The European Union’s decision to appoint a special ambassador accredited to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a welcome and long-awaited step forward in the EU’s relations with one of the world’s most dynamic and rapidly-growing regions.As a statement by the European External Action Service, the EU’s “foreign ministry”, underlined, the “important decision” reflects Europe’s growing engagement with ASEAN and an ambition to upgrade the existing partnership with the Southeast Asian grouping to a strategic one.The move also underscores the hard work put in by ASEAN members in drawing EU attention to the region over the last four years. Friends of Europe has been a strong advocate of closer and stronger EU-ASEAN relations.The new EU envoy could make an important contribution to injecting some much-needed momentum into what – until four years ago – was still a lacklustre and uninspiring relationship.Good progress has been made in recent years. However, building a solid, sustainable and strategic EU-ASEAN relationship will remain a challenge, demanding a strong effort by both regions. Certainly both sides see an interest in forging closer ties. Bilateral EU-ASEAN trade and investment flows are booming. Europe and ASEAN need each other’s’ markets to grow and thrive.But in addition to the global challenges they need to tackle, Asian and European countries face difficult tasks both at home and in their respective regions. Still grappling with slowing economic growth and unacceptably-high youth unemployment rates, Europe’s urgent foreign policy priority is to thrash out a new “beyond sanctions” strategy for dealing with an increasingly volatile and assertive Russia.European countries are also under pressure to join America’s campaign to “destroy and degrade” the so-called “Islamic State” in Iraq and Syria.ASEAN states, meanwhile, are struggling to meet their goal of forging a border-free single ASEAN market by end-2015. On the foreign policy front, they are engaged in a delicate balancing act to maintain good relations with the three Asian behemoths: China, Japan and India.Still the omens are good. Coming only a few weeks before the mega Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan on October 16, the EU announcement on the special envoy to ASEAN sends a strong and reassuring message of continuing EU engagement with Asia in the years ahead.ASEM will bring together 53 Asian (including ASEAN) and European partners for a two day summit focusing on the key security, economic and political challenges facing both regions.Significantly, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Japan’s Shinzo Abe and key ASEAN leaders will be attending the meeting as will Italian Premier Matteo Renzi and the EU’s top officials, Herman Van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso. For both men it will be the last ASEM gathering before the change of EU leadership in November.Asian and European business leaders, parliamentarians, academics and journalists as well as civil society actors will also be gathering in Milan around the same time in separate but inter-connected fora.In another sign that Europe intends to stay engaged with Asian states despite the fires burning in its neighbourhood, the incoming EU foreign policy chief, Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, has gone out of her way in recent weeks to highlight Europe’s sustained interest in Asia, including ASEAN.Mogherini’s focus on Asia is important and reassuring. Her predecessor Catherine Ashton was roundly criticised by ASEAN governments for paying only sporadic and cursory attention to their region. She managed to get relations back on track – but it was touch and go at moments.Mogherini is expected to be more attentive. And under the new structures being designed by incoming European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU foreign policy chief will be working in close cooperation with her colleagues who deal with trade, development aid, humanitarian affairs and climate change to forge a coherent conversation with Asia. Closer coordination with EU capitals is also expected.This is good news. Both the EU and ASEAN have worked hard over the last four years - in Brussels and in the different European and Southeast Asian capitals - to make their relationship more credible and relevant.It’s often been long and laborious. Human rights issues as well as relations with the former military junta in Myanmar cast a dark, unpleasant shadow over relations even as trade and investment flows continued to expand.Political reforms in Myanmar as well as ASEAN’s economic dynamism and newfound interest in developing an impressive - albeit still modest - human rights agenda, have helped to turn the relationship around.Looking ahead, for the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal. The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others. ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.The appointment of the new EU envoy to ASEAN could help unlock the EU membership of EAS in the coming years. ASEAN is also looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner” and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits.At the same time, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. The outgoing EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. It’s still not clear if his successor Cecilia Malmstrom will be equally interested in such a deal.Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Significantly, the EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October. The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity. The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.A conversation on maritime security has also been initiated.These and other EU-ASEAN ventures should expand and deepen once the new – and yet to be named - EU envoy to the grouping begins working in Jakarta. Europe and ASEAN have come a long way in making their partnership more relevant in a rapidly-changing world. Both sides must maintain the momentum despite domestic and regional distractions.
View from abroad: Why Cold War is back — sort of (Originally published 06/09/2014)
IN case you haven’t noticed there’s a new swagger to Nato, the 28-nation Western military alliance that many thought had outlived its usefulness with the end of the Cold War.Well, guess what, the Cold War is back — sort of — and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is once again in the international spotlight. No longer viewed as another has-been institution, a relic of the past, Nato is now universally recognised as a crucially important alliance to ward off threats from Russia, which threatens Europe’s security from the east, and the nasty “Islamic State” on Europe’s southern flank.It’s quite a turn-around for an organisation which many had given up as irrelevant and out-of-step with a deeply connected, inter-dependent and post-modern world. Leaders were supposed to be nice to each other, sign treaties of amity and cooperation, invest in each other’s economies and give up on wars and conflict.The talk was of “peace dividends”, turning guns into ploughs, the victory of democracy and the rule of law and a commitment to maintaining a liberal international order.Nato talked of “partnerships for peace”, extended a hand of friendship to Russia and to other former foes, countries which were once part of the Soviet Union.No longer. First, for all its economic networks and interdependence, flourishing of global trade and just generally, of globalisation, the world is proving to be a volatile, disorderly and unpredictable place.Suddenly, the future is not that bright or that secure. Far from witnessing the “end of history” as predicted by Francis Fukuyama in the euphoric period following the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, we are entering an “age of anxiety”.Mostly — but not only — this is due to President Vladimir Putin’s recent upending of the post-World War security order in Europe through his actions in Ukraine, starting with the seizure of Crimea five months ago and the subsequent destabilisation of other parts of the country.Russia’s actions and the outrage they have prompted across Europe and the US have undoubtedly given Nato new lease of life. The alliance’s summit held in Wales last week is proof that far from being relegated to the dustbin of history, Nato is back — possibly even with a bang.Or is it? While Nato’s rhetoric on Russia is strong and impressive, it’s far from certain that actions will match words. Take the decision to deploy a new and potentially significant Rapid Reaction Force to deter any further aggression by Russia against its neighbours.The Force would be ready to be deployed within days should there be any military aggression against one of the 28 N ato member nations. The military unit, numbering 4,000 troops, would be on high alert at all times, with additional logistical support stations set up in Eastern European statesThe decision is being hailed as an example of a new and more determined Nato but it falls short of the call by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk for the alliance put 10,000 troops in Poland.And there are fears that Nato member states won’t be able to find the funds to finance the Force.The problem is that not only is the alliance divided on how best to react to an increasingly aggressive Russia but defence spending in almost all member nations remains under two per cent of GDP, the goal set by Nato. Overall, Nato military budgets have shrunk by 20 per cent over the past five years, while Russia’s budget has risen by half.Also, Nato has tried to organise rapid-reaction forces in the past, with disappointing results. It first announced it would create a Nato Response Force in 2002, with as many as 13,000 troops. But it took two years to get the unit up and running. Even today, the force needs about 30 days to mobilise. Until this year, it had deployed only once, in 2005, to provide earthquake relief to Pakistan.Meanwhile, many Nato members in Europe have been deeply reluctant to challenge Russia — both for fear of spurring a wider conflict and because of domestic economic problems which could be exacerbated by a confrontation.But the 65-year-old alliance’s worries aren’t limited to Eastern Europe. IS, the terror group that has declared an independent state in Iraq and Syria in recent months, is threatening to send violent European “foreign fighters” to Nato members’ streets.Insiders say Britain is likely to join the US in airstrikes against Islamic State as public anger grows over the execution of Western hostages.Also as Nato troops prepare to depart at the end of the year, Afghanistan represents another headache. Nato officials say Afghans are now responsible for almost 100 per cent of their country’s security. But Nato has said it will remain committed to Kabul through the Nato-Afghanistan Enduring Partnership signed in 2010 and the Resolute Support mission to “train, advise and assist” Afghan forces.In addition, Nato is being challenged by Moscow to react to a new breed of “hybrid war”, a term used to describe Russia’s use of a broad range of hostile actions — including military force — to spur unrest.The Nato summit in Wales may not have been the “most momentous” in the alliance’s history as some predicted. But it does mean that Norway’s former prime minister Jens Stoltenberg who will be taking over as Nato Secretary General on October 1 will be inheriting a very different alliance than the one led by Anders Fogh Rasmussen over the last five years.
Why Global Europe must change in an “anxious age” (Originally published 04/09/2014)
Federica Mogherini’s appointment as the new European Union foreign policy chief offers an opportunity for an overhaul of EU foreign and security policy. With many EU leaders, ministers and senior officials slow to respond to world events given Europe’s traditionally long summer break, the 2014 summer of death and violence has left the reputation of “Global Europe” in tatters, highlighting the EU’s apparent disconnect from the bleak reality surrounding it. When she takes charge in November along with other members of the new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, Mogherini’s first priority must be to restore Europe’s credibility in an increasingly volatile and chaotic global landscape.It cannot be business as usual. A strategic rethink of Europe’s global outreach is urgent. Europe can no longer pretend that it is not – or only mildly – shaken by events on its doorstep. In a world where many countries are wracked by war, terrorism and extremism, EU foreign policy cannot afford to be ad hoc, reactive and haphazard. Given their different national interests and histories, European governments are unlikely to ever speak with “one voice” on foreign policy. But they can and should strive to share a coherent, common, strategic reflection and vision of Europe’s future in an uncertain and anxious world.Changing gears is going to be tough. Many of Europe’s key beliefs in the use of soft power, a reliance on effective multilateralism, the rule of law and a liberal world order are being shredded by governments and non-state actors alike. With emerging nations, especially in Asia, gaining increased economic and political clout, Europe has been losing global power and influence for almost a decade. Despite pleas by NATO and the crisis in Ukraine, most European governments remain reluctant to increase military and defence spending. At the same time, the Eurozone crisis and Europe’s plodding economic recovery with unacceptably high unemployment continue to erode public support for the EU both at home and abroad. Populist far-right and extreme-left groups in Europe – including in the European Parliament – preach a protectionist and inward-looking agenda. Most significantly, EU national governments are becoming ever greedier in seeking to renationalise important chunks of what is still called Europe’s “common foreign and security policy.”To prove her critics wrong - and demonstrate foreign policy expertise and flair despite only a six-month stint as Italy’s foreign minister - Mogherini will have to hit the ground running. Her performance at the European Parliament on September 2, including an adamant rejection of charges of being “pro-Russian”, appears to have been impressive. Admirers point out that she is a hard-working team player, who reads her briefs carefully and speaks fluent English and French in addition to her native Italian. These qualities should stand her in good stead as she manages the unwieldy European External Action Service (EEAS), plays the role of vice president of the European Commission, chairs EU foreign ministerial meetings, chats up foreign counterparts and travels around the world while also – hopefully – spearheading a strategic review of Europe’s global interests and priorities.The tasks ahead are certainly daunting. There is need for reflection and action on several fronts – all at the same time. Eleven years after the then EU High Representative Javier Solana drew up the much-lauded European Security Strategy (partially revised in 2008), Europe needs to reassess the regional and global security environment, reset its aims and ambitions and define a new agenda for action. But this much-needed policy overhaul to tackle new and evolving challenges must go hand-in-hand with quick fire-fighting measures to deal with immediate regional and global flashpoints.The world in 2014 is complex and complicated, multi-polar, disorderly and unpredictable. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have up-ended the post-World War security order in Europe. The so-called “Islamic State” is spreading its hateful ideology through murder and assassination in Syria and Iraq, not too far from Europe’s borders. A fragile Middle East truce is no guarantee of real peace between Israelis and Palestinians. These and other complex problems require multi-faceted responses.The days of one-size-fits-all foreign policy are well and truly over. In an inter-connected and interdependent world, foreign policy means working with friends but also with enemies, with like-minded nations and those which are non-like-minded, with competitors and allies. It’s fine to pay special attention to China, India and other headline-grabbing big countries but it could be self-defeating to ignore the significance and clout of Indonesia, Mexico and other middle or even small powers. Upgrading ties with the US remains crucial. While relations with states and governments are important they must go hand-in-hand with contacts with business leaders, civil society actors and young people. Finally, Europe needs to acquire a less simplistic and more sophisticated understanding of Islam and its Muslim neighbours, including Turkey, which has been left in uncertainty about EU membership for more than fifty years.Europe’s response to the new world must include a smart mix of brain and brawn, soft and hard power, carrots and sticks. Isolation and sanctions can’t work on their own but neither can a foreign policy based only on feel-good incentives. The EU’s existing foreign policy tools need to be sharpened but European policymakers also need to sharpen and update their view of the world. Mogherini’s youth and hopefully fresh stance on some of these issues could be an asset in this exercise. Importantly, Mogherini must work in close cooperation and consultation with other EU institutions, including the European Parliament and especially the European Commission whose many departments, including enlargement issues, trade, humanitarian affairs, environment, energy and development are crucial components of Global Europe. The failure of synergies among Commission departments is believed to be at least partly responsible for the weaknesses of the EU’s “Neighbourhood Policy”. Also, a coherent EU foreign policy demands close coordination with EU capitals. Recent experience shows that, as in the case of negotiations with Iran, the EU is most effective when the foreign policy chief works in tandem with EU member states. Closer contacts with NATO will also be vital if Europe is to forge a credible strategy vis-àvis Russia and Ukraine. Such cooperation is especially important if – as this article suggests – Mogherini embarks on a revamp of EU foreign and security policy.An incomplete list of key issues which require closer scrutiny in the days and weeks ahead includes:
- EU policymakers need to rethink relations with Russia following the Ukraine crisis and Moscow’s success in breaking down Europe’s post-World War security order. This requires a careful evaluation of EU-Russia relations which goes beyond the current focus on sanctions but includes the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas and the over-arching need to ensure immediate and long-term stability on Europe’s eastern flank. A key question to reflect over is whether US-EU restrictive measures can be effective in a world where other countries – in Asia, Africa and Latin America – are ready and willing to move in to the much-coveted Russian market. Mogherini has previously raised eyebrows for allegedly being soft on Russia but she has since told Italy's Corriere della Sera that sanctions against Russia are necessary, adding at the European Parliament that Moscow is no longer an EU strategic partner. But even as sanctions are ratcheted up,is it in Europe’s interest to isolate Russia – and should it even try? More immediately, will an EU-Russia summit go ahead as planned later this year or is there an interest in trying to re-establish a constructive conversation with Russia again?
- Events in Ukraine spotlight the failure of the EU’s goal of creating a “ring” of stable and well-governed states around its border and the glaring need to jettison the Neighbourhood Policy in favour of a less-exclusive and fresh strategy for a diverse region where none of the states are ready for EU membership and where the EU wields only limited influence given its modest financial resources and the increasing presence and funding possibilities from not just Russia but also China.
- Europe’s quasi silence over the summer’s violent events in the Middle East has dented EU credibility in a region where it once enjoyed a certain degree of respect. The EU needs to regain its role as an important actor in any peace talks which follow the current Israel-Palestinian truce. While taking part in upcoming Gaza reconstruction talks, Mogherini and her team must also reflect on the long-term validity of a situation where EU-funded projects (the EU spends US$600m on Gaza territories each year) are regularly reduced to rubble by Israeli military intervention.
- Even a more experienced foreign policy expert than Mogherini would find it difficult to hammer out an EU policy to stabilise Iraq and Syria in the face of the ruthless expansion of the “Islamic State”. Much will also depend on whether US President Obama is really as determined as he claims to be in leading a regional and international coalition to beat back the terrorists. European nations certainly have the military capabilities—such as the EU battle groups—to contribute to military actions together with the US. But there is no certainty that they will find the required political will – and public support - to take such steps. In any case, the EU needs to hammer out a medium to long-term strategy for political, humanitarian and financial efforts to stabilise the devastated region.
- In addition – and in any case - the EU needs not only to avert any domestic terrorist threat posed by “foreign fighters” who return to Europe from the Middle-East but also enhance its knowledge of Islam, its different interpretations and variations, distinguishing not only - as hopefully they now do - between Shia and Sunni but also among the various, often quixotic and radical sects promoted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mogherini’s thesis on Islamic politics should help her to spearhead such a reflection.
- More importantly a closer dialogue is needed with Turkey. Ankara may have been accused of allowing foreign fighters easy transit routes to Syria but its knowledge of the region continues to be valuable. Encouraged by the recent erratic and often-authoritarian actions of now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the EU has let its relationship with Turkey fester for much too long. Even if membership negotiations remain erratic and certain European leaders send out contrary political messages, Europe must find a way to revitalise relations with this important country. A closer dialogue with Iran, once the nuclear issue is surmounted, will help. Indonesia, only now being considered an interesting partner for the EU, has arguable even more insights to offer.
- The focus on the eastern and southern borders will not be enough. Europe’s hopes for being recognized as a valid and relevant global actor hinge on its relations with Asian nations, including China, India and Japan but also South Korea and the ten states in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). There is little the EU can do to directly tackle the so called “Asian paradox” whereby countries enmeshed in increasingly close economic networks are also embroiled in acrimonious territorial disputes. Mogherini would be well-advised to maintain strong EU ties with both Beijing and Tokyo while continuing to press for an easing of tensions between the two Asian giants. EU support for South Korean President Parks’s North East Asia peace and cooperation initiative (NEAPCI) to build trust in the region should be considered. Disputes over history as well as maritime claims have meant that no Trilateral summit between the three countries since 2012. Mogherini could try and encourage the opening of a purposeful dialogue among the three nations, allowing stability to return to an economically prosperous but politically fragile area.
- Having injected new dynamism into its once lacklustre relationship with ASEAN over the last three years, the EU must not reduce its diplomatic and economic engagement with the region. This requires participation in all key ASEAN related events and a subtle but determined effort to become a member of the East Asia Summit, the region’s increasingly important dialogue forum. The EU already participates in many of the East Asia Summit’s activities through its cooperation with ASEAN in areas from economic and financial cooperation and environmental issues and disaster relief to education and research and technology.
Mogherini will not be able to do it on her own. Much will depend on the EEAS team she works with and the knowledge, expertise and passion her aides bring to their work. Team work and leadership, not micro-management, will be required.With the crisis in Ukraine and the volatile and dangerous violence spreading through the Middle East, the EU needs to rethink its foreign and security policy, asking itself three key questions: can Europe’s most-modern attachment to soft power, diplomacy and multilateralism, which have stood it well during the last decades, survive in an increasingly unstable and volatile world? How ready is the EU to forge a more muscular and interventionist approach? And can Europe make such a momentous policy U-turn at a time of falling European defence budgets and amid continuing public wariness of getting involved in foreign conflicts?Putting these issues on the backburner is no longer an option. The change of guard in Brussels is the right moment to review and reconsider Europe’s role in the world. Global Europe’s disconnect needs to be tackled before it’s too late.
ASEAN-EU to talk trade, security (Originally published 18/07/2014)
Asia remains high on the European Union’s foreign and security policy agenda following the meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations[1]) in Brussels on July 23.In August, security discussions dominated EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s participation in the influential ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. And mid-October, European and Asian leaders will gather in Milan for summit talks on injecting new life and momentum into their 18-year old ASEM (Asia Europe Meetings) partnership. (read more)Asia and Europe have worked hard to maintain momentum in their relations despite pressing - and difficult - domestic and regional concerns. Such endeavours are to their credit. However, the challenge facing participants at both the upcoming ASEAN and ASEM meetings is to build more trust and understanding - and take their relationship to a higher, more strategic level.Discussions at the EU-ASEAN meeting focused on an array of global and regional issues. But more importantly, both sides have specific long-standing demands which are likely to be raised.A “win-win” deal?For the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal. The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes the ten-member ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others. ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.ASEAN, meanwhile, is looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner”, the appointment of a special EU envoy accredited to the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits. While not opposed to either of these points, the EU has put ASEAN demands on hold.No breakthrough was expected at the meeting in Brussels. But if both sides play their cards correctly by engaging in innovative and creative diplomacy, the meeting could pave the way - further down the line - for a “win-win” deal on the EU’s entry into the EAS and the elevation of ASEAN to one of Europe’s “strategic partners”.As expected meanwhile, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. (read more)Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Domestic challengesKeeping Asia-Europe engagement on track has not been easy for either region. The EU still faces the over-arching challenge of consolidating a still-slow economic recovery, creating jobs, especially for young people, and deciding on the distribution of key EU posts, including the appointment of the next high-representative for foreign and security policy. Hammering out a coherent strategy vis a vis a more assertive and often-unpredictable Russia remains a challenge. The EU is also still struggling to understand and respond to the continuing chaos and conflict in its southern neighbourhood.In Asia, meanwhile, conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas continue to strain relations between China and many of its neighbours and also challenge ASEAN’s claim to play a central role in the region. In addition, ASEAN is grappling with a military coup in Thailand, ethnic violence in Myanmar amid preparations for next year’s presidential elections and the year-long political crisis over disputed election results in Cambodia. While Jakarta mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is clearly the winner in Indonesia’s presidential elections, competing claims of victory by rival Prabowo Subianto have created unnecessary political confusion in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and most robust democracy.On the economic front, the Asian Development Bank has cut its initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent even as the region struggles to tackle problems posed by urbanisation, climate change and unequal development.Growing connectivityThe EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 (read more). The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity. The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.Ashton’s participation in the ARF meeting in Napydaw ensures a much-needed, stronger EU-ASEAN dialogue on increasingly complex security issues. In a marked change over past years, there is already recognition of the need for a stronger EU-ASEAN conversation on security, including on non-traditional security threats including climate change, poverty alleviation, pandemics and illegal immigration.With 50% of world trade in tonnage passing through the South China Sea, the EU has taken a lead in establishing an EU-ASEAN high-level dialogue on maritime security, with a focus on port security, maritime surveillance, and the joint management of resources including fisheries and oil and gas.Significantly, while they once stayed carefully out of key Asian security disputes, EU countries with other Group of Seven leaders have expressed concern over tensions between China and some other Asian countries in the East and South China Seas, warned against any use of force and urged all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in accordance with international law.Deeper trustWhile much binds the two regions, upgrading EU-ASEAN ties requires deeper trust and understanding between the two sides. Encouragingly the earlier acrimony over participation and attendance at meetings is now buried. Yet like ASEM gatherings, ASEAN meetings must become more inter-active and less formal and ritualistic. The focus on agenda items, prepared statements and out-dated rhetoric needs to be replaced by more open, frank and critical albeit constructive exchanges.Both sides have much to discuss and share. They should be allowed to do so – even on difficult issues such as the military coup in Thailand, the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar or tensions in the South China Seas - without taking offense or engaging in an overzealous regard for diplomatic niceties.ASEAN and the EU have been talking to and working with each other for several decades - but the last three years have been especially important in binding the two regions together. The Brunei Plan of Action adopted in 2012 laid the groundwork for a further intensification of EU-ASEAN ties. The meeting in Brussels should give added traction to EU-ASEAN engagement by preparing for a qualitative upgrade of relations within two to three years.
Indonesian elections matter to all of us (Originally published 07/07/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)
Elections in Indonesia matter to a closely watching world. The results of the presidential elections in the world’s third largest democracy on July 9 will determine the future direction of Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and dynamic economic powerhouse.Beyond that, Indonesia’s political choice will have an equally strong impact on its neighbours, the wider Asian region and also on Europe and the United States. Most importantly, the way Indonesians vote will resonate across the Muslim world.Indonesians should know: their country offers a successful alternative model for Islamic societies, especially Egypt and other troubled Arab nations.As a Muslim majority country which is also a robust and vibrant democracy Indonesia is quite exceptional in a Muslim world dominated by monarchies, dictatorships and uncertain, vulnerable democracies.Indonesia’s experience in transiting from years of authoritarianism to democracy stands as an inspiration at a time when countries like Egypt are back peddling on meeting popular aspirations for change and political reform.Egypt’s failed democratic transition is proof that democracy needs visionary, thoughtful and cool-headed leaders, careful nurturing and can never be taken for granted.The choice Indonesians face now is simple: will they vote for a man who harks back to a past era, talks tough at a timewhen the world is looking for Indonesian “soft power” to tackle 21st Century challenges or a young and dynamic politician who stands for a new and progressive Indonesia, ready to take its place as a global power.Indonesia over the last decade and more has witnessed a massive transformation of its economy, with analysts now predicting that by 2030, the country will have an economy larger than either Germany or the United Kingdom.Whoever takes over the reins of power will have to tackle a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy, over-reliance on commodity exports, infrastructure bottlenecks and corruption. Keeping Indonesia open for business and avoiding the dreaded “middle income trap” will be other important priorities. The next president will also need to confront the problem of religious extremism which threatens a country known for its tolerance and moderation.
ASEM: Why Asia-Europe relations matter in the 21st Century (Originally published 30/06/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)
The Asia-Europe partnership, launched in Bangkok in 1996 to foster stronger relations between the two regions, is ready for a reset.Hopes are high that the 10th Asia Europe Meeting – or ASEM summit – to be held in Milan on October 16-17 will confirm the credibility and relevance of Asia-Europe relations in the 21st Century. ASEM has certainly survived many storms and upheavals over the last eighteen years. With ASEM’s 20th anniversary in 2016 approaching rapidly, the challenge is not only to ensure the survival of the partnership but to create conditions for it to flourish and thrive.ASEM has been through different periods. Initial euphoria over the initiative was followed by a period of inertia and a degree of apathy and disinterest. Asians criticised European leaders and ministers for not turning up at important meetings. Europeans complained that the gatherings were turning into little more than photo opportunities.The talk now is about renewal and revival as Asians and Europeans seek to inject fresh oomph into ASEM. The focus is on energizing discussions through changed formats and a stronger focus on content.This is positive. However, ASEM’s future hinges on whether governments are ready to pay as much attention to ASEM and devote as much time and energy to their partnership as they did in the early years. It is also conditional on closer engagement between Asian and European business leaders, civil society representatives and enhanced people-to-people contacts. An ASEM business summit and peoples’ forum will be held in parallel with the leaders’ meeting.Fresh ideasEncouragingly, efforts to reinvigorate ASEM have already begun. Asian and European foreign ministers and senior officials have been meeting over the last two years to try and thrash out a new and potentially winning formula for ASEM’s revival. Fresh ideas and formats to recapture ASEM’s original informality and flexibility are being put to the test. Efforts are being made to focus on content, not process. Long-winded communiques are being slimmed down. And leaders are being encouraged to engage in real conversations, not read from prepared papers, while also using ASEM’s immense networking opportunities for increased bilateral contacts.These and other initiatives are important and should go a long way in making ASEM more interesting and useful – and perhaps even more visible to the public. To stay in sync with a changing global political and economic landscape, ASEM is trying harder to adapt to and reflect new realities. Significantly, the theme of the Milan summit – “Responsible Partnership for Sustainable Growth and Security” – allows for a discussion not only of ongoing political strains and tensions in Asia and in Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, but also of crucial questions linked to food, water and energy security.High-level supportAs Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director at the European External Action Service (EEAS) points out, Asia matters for Europe - and, just as importantly, Europe matters for Asia. Messages of support for the partnership have also been made in recent months by the Chinese, Japanese and Russian leaders. A statement released after President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China meetings in Brussels underlined the “growing role of trans-regional and regional dialogue mechanisms to promote regional peace and prosperity”, with leaders saying they looked forward to the ASEM summit in Milan. Subsequently, an EU-Japan statement highlighted ASEM’s “value” as a forum for dialogue and cooperation. And interestingly, after their talks in Shanghai recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin defined ASEM as an “important platform for the exchange of economic and trade cooperation in other fields, social, cultural, etc.,” adding that they were “willing to strengthen cooperation and promote the ASEM to enhance work efficiency”.Connectivity, connectivity, connectivityEngagement between the two regions has been increasing over the years, both within and outside ASEM. Five of the 51 (set to rise to 52 with Croatia joining in October) ASEM partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia – are the EU’s strategic partners. Turkey and Kazakhstan have formally voiced interest in joining ASEM although approval of their applications will take time. There is now a stronger EU-Asian conversation on trade, business, security and culture.Exports to Asia and investments in the region are pivotal in ensuring a sustainable European economic recovery while the EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe, helping Asian governments to maintain growth and development. European technology is in much demand across the region. Not surprisingly, Asia-Europe economic interdependence has grown. With total Asia-Europe trade in 2012 estimated at € 1.37 trillion, Asia has become the EU’s main trading partner, accounting for a third of total trade. More than a quarter of European outward investments head for Asia while Asia’s emerging global champions are seeking out business deals in Europe. The increased connectivity is reflected in the mutual Asia-Europe quest to negotiate Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)and investment accords.The FTAs concluded with South Korea and Singapore and similar deals under negotiation with Japan, India and individual ASEAN –the Association of Southeast Asian Nations– countries as well as the bilateral investment treaty under discussion with China are important in consolidating EU-Asia relations. These and other initiatives illustrate enhanced recognition that the two regions must work closely together to ensure not only national and regional prosperity but also sustainable and inclusive global growth.Beyond tradeASEM’s connectivity credentials go beyond trade and economics. In addition to the strategic partnerships mentioned above, Asia and Europe are linked through an array of cooperation accords. Discussions on climate change, pandemics, illegal immigration, maritime security, urbanization and green growth are frequent among multiple government ministries and agencies in both regions, reflecting a growing recognition that 21st Century challenges can only be tackled through improved global governance and failing that through “patchwork governance” involving cross-border and cross-regional alliances.
While Asia’s rise dominates the headlines, the region’s leaders are cognizant of the many challenges they face – and often look to Europe for cooperation in tackling them. Many Asian countries did not succumb to the woes plaguing the American and European economies but governments in economic powerhouses like China, India and Indonesia are acutely aware of the dangers of falling into the “middle income trap” of economic stagnation. Even as an emerging Asian middle class aspires for a better life and working conditions, the region is grappling with environmental degradation, rampant urbanisation, poor implementation of labour standards and lax quality controls on consumer products. Wealth inequalities persist despite the region’s successful attempts to reduce poverty.
Security: The Asian paradoxDiscussions on security are an important part of the political pillar in ASEM, with leaders exchanging views on regional and global flashpoints. Given current tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, this year’s debate should be particularly important.
Some call it the “Asian paradox”. Even as economic cooperation and - in the case of ASEAN - economic integration gathers pace in Asia, historical animosities and unresolved territorial conflicts weigh heavily on the region, damaging relations between governments and people. The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who warn that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.
Asian views of Europe’s security role are also changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts. As such, eearlier scepticism of Europe’s security credentials is being replaced by recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy human rights.In addition, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner to deal with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change. Clearly also, the EU remains an inspiration for Asia’s own regional integration initiatives, including ASEAN, and in areas such as rules-based collective security.The seas…Europeans too are starting to become more aware of their security credentials and the global implications of instability in Asia, not least as regards maritime security. “The EU’s essential interests are closely tied up with the security of East Asia,” due largely to implications for navigation and commerce, underlines an EU Council document issued in 2012. The recently approved EU maritime security strategy identifies several threats to EU interests including cross-border and organised crime, threats to freedom of navigation, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and environmental risks. Respect for international law and especially the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea are emphasised. Importantly, several Asian and European countries are working together in the EU-led ATALANTA counter-piracy operation in the Western Indian Ocean.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts. The European Union has signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region. High-level European and Asian representatives are now regular participants at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore.A changing worldMuch has changed in Asia and Europe since ASEM’s launch. The last 18 years have seen the sustained rise of a self-confident Asia and much soul-searching in Europe over the region’s global relevance. ASEAN efforts to create a frontier-free economic community are speeding up and Myanmar, once the global pariah and the cause of much Asia-Europe acrimony, is now firmly committed to political reform. Europe’s economic troubles have made it less strident in promoting a values-based agenda and while the United States’ “pivot” to Asia certainly prodded Europe to become more active in the region, Asia and Europe have discovered the value of interacting with each other without America.Still ASEM faces strong competition. There is no dearth of rival groupings and countries have become adept at “forum shopping” as they seek to build interest-based coalitions. In a multipolar world, the G20 which brings together industrialised and emerging countries now has to fight for its place against other alliances such as BRICS (which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia). A host of other regional and cross-regional groupings litter an increasingly crowded global landscape.
No time to lose: EU needs a new agenda for action (Originally published 28/05/2014)
So far, so predictable. As expected, voter turn-out in the European Parliament elections was modest, Far Right and populist parties made big gains, Jean Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister, whose European People’s Party (EPP) has the largest number of seats in the new assembly wants to be the next president of the European Commission – and EU leaders are undecided on what to do next.They should not be. The “wake up call” delivered by voters demands urgent responses and a complete reassessment of EU priorities.The attention must move from austerity to growth and jobs. The EU must do better at communicating with people. The populist rhetoric of the Far Right parties must be countered with a new, more assertive agenda for building a competitive, secure and credible Europe which is responsive to its citizens’ concerns but still able to play an important role in its neighborhood and on the global stage.And of course, EU leaders must reach a quick decision on nominating a new European Commission president, capable of enacting and implementing a fresh and ambitious agenda for Europe.This is not the moment for protracted squabbling on the way ahead – either on policies to follow or people to nominate. The first post-election meeting of EU leaders held on Tuesday was not a good start, however.Instead of cool-headed assessments and a focus on overhauling policies, the gathering heard the expected spate of complaints and recriminations about Europe having lost its way.With the Front National in the lead at home, French President François Hollande lamented that the EU project had become “remote and incomprehensible”, reflecting a "distrust in Europe and a fear of decline". British Prime Minister David Cameron noted peoples’ deep disillusionment and desire for change as the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) came first in the domestic vote.Criticism is good but this is the time for leaders to look ahead – and to take responsibility for the current state of Europe.The meeting on Tuesday also showed that a quick decision on a new European Commission president – and the other top EU jobs up for grabs – also seems unlikely.EU leaders have traditionally named the Commission head on their own, but under the Lisbon Treaty, they now have "to take account" of the European election results. But many have made clear that while Juncker may be the European Parliament’s favourite son, he does not have an “automatic” right to become the next Commission chief. Significantly, however, the Parliament must ultimately approve the next head of the EU executive.Causing alarm – and possibly triggering a long, difficult and damaging Council/Parliament battle - German Chancellor Angela Merkel recognized that while “the EPP is the strongest political force and Jean-Claude Juncker is our top candidate” the net should be cast wider to include other “suitable persons”.The spotlight now falls on European Council President Herman Van Rompuy who will consult European Parliament political groups and EU heads of government on the nomination of the Commission president. The EU summit on June 26-27 may take a final decision.European citizens need more – and better. EU leaders should start setting a new “action agenda” for the next five years. Key questions that need urgent responses include:- Is the EU ready to put growth and jobs at the centre of its policies and actions, replacing the focus on austerity?- Will there be a new push towards a full EU banking union, with centralised supervision?- Can there be a rebalancing of powers between EU and national authorities?- Can the EU continue to play an important global role despite the “little Europe”, anti-globalisation and anti-trade and protectionist manifestos of the Far Right and populist parties?- How best can the EU reconcile its skills shortages and economic need for immigration with the tough anti-foreigner and xenophobic message of the Far Right groups?- Will the EU be able to pursue a common energy policy and reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas – and develop a sensible policy towards Russia given the pro-Moscow stance taken by many of the winning populist parties?- Can a better job be done on developing a credible, positive and relevant narrative for Europe to counter the simplistic and toxic anti-EU message of the populist and anti-European parties?For all the publicity given to the populists’ surge in the polls, it is true that the pro-European centre-right and centre-left parties will still dominate the Parliament and set the agenda for Europe.It is also possibly true that the Far Right groups will be too fragmented and quarrelsome to dominate the European conversation.But while such arguments are valid, they miss the point: EU politicians have done a very poor job of engaging with citizens and listening seriously to their fears and concerns. No effort has been made to develop a strong counter-narrative to the anti-European message of the Far Right. This is the time to do so.Change is always difficult and painful. But it can no longer be avoided.
Myanmar today: Tackling the good, the bad and the ugly (Originally published 09/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)
After five decades of repressive military rule, Myanmar’s political and economic transformation continues to impress. The country is preparing for milestone elections in autumn 2015, ceasefire talks have opened with ethnic groups and work begun on important constitutional changes ahead of next year’s polls. With the economy growing by 6-7 percent a year and labour costs still low, foreign investments are pouring in. Myanmar’s current chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides President Thein Sein with a further opportunity to boost the country’s regional and international profile.And yet. Initial optimism over Myanmar’s transition is beginning to wear thin. Increasing ethnic violence and civil unrest, especially in Rakhine state, among Buddhist groups and the stateless Rohingya Muslims, is a big, dark spot on Myanmar’s credentials. With thousands of Rohingya forced to live in overcrowded camps or flee by boat, beleaguered relief agencies – many of which have been forced out of the country - have warned of a humanitarian crisis in the strife-hit state.International criticism of the government’s failure to stem the violence is increasing, with 46 countries, including the United States (US), recently joining forces with the European Union (EU) at the United Nations Human Rights Council to express serious concern over the situation of the Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State. The resolution also asked for the extension of the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on Myanmar for one more year and urged an opening of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the country.Inclusive growthAdditionally, there is concern that while growth rates are high, Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most impoverished countries. Foreign partners worry that any slowdown in reform efforts in the run up to elections will make it even more difficult for the government to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.On the bright side, attracted by a growing consumer base and low-cost workforce, foreign investors are lining up to establish a foothold in Myanmar. A foreign investment law was passed in 2012 allowing some overseas firms to fully own ventures. In a bid to further open up, a Telecommunications Law was passed last year and foreign energy companies have recently been given rights to explore offshore Myanmar. The country is also slowly opening up its banking sector, with foreign banks expected to be allowed to operate independently by the end of the year. About 35 international banks already have representative offices in Myanmar.The next stage of political reform looks set to be especially challenging. The government is hoping for progress toward peace through the signature of a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with ethnic armed groups. Preliminary talks were held in Thailand at the end of January and the second round in Yangon, on March 9-10. The third round to coordinate the joint-drafting of a single nationwide document was completed on April 8, with both sides agreeing on the titles of the seven-chapter draft which will be further discussed in early May. Formal high-level peace talks to set a date for the signing of the agreement are expected to take place in Hpa-an, capital of Kayin state. Once ready, the deal will be signed by the government, parliament, the armed forces, political parties and leaders of different ethnic groups.The government has also embarked on the difficult task of amending the constitution, including article 59(f), which debars opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because of the foreign citizenship of her children and late husband. The process is proving to be more complex than anticipated, however, prompting fears the reform process is running out of steam.President Sein raised hopes earlier this year by voicing support for changing the constitution to allow “any citizen,” to run for the presidency in 2015. But preliminary non-binding recommendations issued in January by the Constitutional Review Joint Committee, a 109-member parliamentary body tasked with reviewing proposals to amend the nation’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, suggest insufficient support for this change although a greater devolution of authority to states and regions, a key demand of many ethnic groups, appears to have the green light. These recommendations will now be reviewed by a 31-member committee which will, in turn, report to the parliament.The census currently under way in the country – which also asks sensitive questions about race and ethnicity that human rights groups have repeatedly warned puts vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya (regarded by the authorities as illegal Bengali immigrants) at additional risk, is another complication. Ethnic minorities, which together make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s population, contend that they were not properly consulted ahead of the census, which requires respondents to identify themselves as one of 135 ethnic groups.Cautious ASEAN chairMyanmar joined ASEAN in 1997 and was to take the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 but was passed over amid international pressure due to its poor human rights record. Although the country now shines in the global spotlight, as current ASEAN chair, Myanmar faces a tough regional agenda, with its partners and the international community anxious about the country’s ability to host the multiple high-level meetings scheduled for the year and to keep ASEAN on course to meet its 2015 end-target for establishing a frontier-free economic community.At a time when ASEAN needs strong leadership, dealing with difficult issues such as conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines will also be a challenge. Analysts say Myanmar performed well at the first informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers held in Bagan earlier this year by steering the group to release a short statement calling on states to settle disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In comparison, two years ago, when Cambodia was ASEAN chair, the organisation split under pressure from Beijing to avoid any mention of the South China Sea.Significantly, Myanmar is also current chair of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), and as such is under strong pressure from increasingly vocal ASEAN civil society groups to adhere to the human rights commitments which are part of the ASEAN Charter.A role for Europe Despite competition from the US, China, Japan, India and others, the EU has quickly emerged as a key partner for Myanmar. EU sanctions – except on exports of weapons - were lifted in April 2013 and the country was brought into the “Everything but Arms” trade regime which provides duty free and quota access for exports from least developed states. As a result, bilateral EU-Myanmar trade is expanding rapidly, climbing up to €569 million last year, a 41% increase compared to 2012 (€403 million).EU investment in Myanmar has so far been limited as a result of sanctions. According to Myanmar’s official figures, cumulated existing EU investments amounted to some US$ 3.1 billion in 2013 (9% of Myanmar’s FDI). This is set to change, however, as investors scour the country for business opportunities and the EU and Myanmar launch negotiations on an investment protection treaty which Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said will become an important accelerator for reform in the country.“Experience has shown that improving legal certainty and predictability for investments is key in providing business opportunities and much-needed development for this growing economy,” De Gucht said during a recent visit to Myanmar. The deal is expected to provide European investors with guarantees against discrimination, expropriation without compensation and protection against unfair and inequitable treatment.EU aid to Myanmar is increasing. The EU committed €100 million of the total €150 million in assistance to the country in 2012, with the money being spent on existing education and health support schemes and for people who have been internally displaced as a result of the country's numerous ethnic conflicts. In 2013, commitments totaled €50 million covering longer-term support to trade and the private sector, ethnic peace, climate change as well as more support to civil society. EU aid to Myanmar is expected to increase by 20 percent in 2014. There is also an agreement in principle that the European Investment Bank (EIB) will extend its operations to Myanmar, with a focus on infrastructure projects including transport and energy, forestry and the opening of credit lines to selected local banks for on-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.An important balancing act The EU’s focus on economics is important. Through trade and aid, Europe can help ease poverty in the country and play a vital role in helping the government to strike the right balance between rapid economic growth and sustainable and inclusive development.Encouragingly, Europe is also keeping up the pressure on human rights in both its bilateral contacts with Myanmar and in international fora such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. Acting on different fronts, EU funds are being used to help Myanmar’s political and economic transition through government capacity-building, support for the Myanmar Human Rights Commission and the Election Commission. EU support is also being channelled to the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC), created by the government to secure peace in ethnic areas as well as to the peace process and the development of ethnic areas. In addition, ethnic groups have also received assistance to enable their participation in peace talks.As it deepens its engagement with Myanmar – and ASEAN – the EU should continue to balance its economic overtures to the country with continuing pressure on issues of human rights, good governance and the rule of law.Myanmar has come a long way in a very short time. Visionaries in the government and the region say there is no reason the country cannot fulfil its long-term ambition to become a regional powerhouse. To make the dream a reality, however, Myanmar will have to learn that economic growth and progress must be shared by all its people, human rights must be respected – and there must be a place in the country for all ethnic groups, whatever their religion.
Europe should focus on “Opportunity Africa” (Originally published 27/03/2014)
European and African leaders meeting in Brussels on April 2-3 must seal a new alliance for Africa’s socio-economic transformation. Africa and Europe are still important partners, with a relationship that has withstood the test of time. It’s time for a major rethink, however. “Opportunity Africa” must replace Europe’s still-jaundiced view of Africa as a problem.As the theme of the Africa-Europe summit underlines, Africa and Europe have to start Investing in People, Prosperity and Peace. Doing so requires a shift in mindsets away from government-focused policies to people-centred actions and from aid to trade, investments and business. It has long been said: the donor/recipient relationship needs to be replaced by an equal partnership. Rapidly-changing domestic, regional and global developments make such a relationship reboot even more imperative.To stay relevant in an era of volatile geo-politics, Africa-Europe relations will have to become more strategic, political and geared to tackling 21st Century challenges, including climate change, human trafficking and pandemics. For Europeans, it means jettisoning old stereotypes and fully embracing a new “Africa rising” narrative which reflects the continent’s changing realities. Access to Africa’s expanding markets and African raw materials will remain essential for European economic growth. But peace and stability in Africa are equally important for Europe’s prosperity.Africa too needs to revisit its views of Europe. Courted by an array of affluent and dynamic new aid partners, including China, Brazil and Turkey, Africa is no longer as reliant on European development assistance as in the past. It’s now European markets, know-how and technology as well as Europe’s experience in regional integration and preventive diplomacy which can help. Europe’s policies to tackle regional inequalities, build capacity and regulatory frameworks can also benefit African governments.Ascending AfricaAscending Africa is not merely a slogan. Across the continent, poverty levels are falling, incomes are rising and there have been improvements in education and health. African economies have flourished over the past decade, turning the region into a magnet for foreign investors. Regional growth is expected to rise to 6% this year from 5% in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), making Africa second only to developing Asia in pace of expansion. Inflation remains under control, having stabilised last year at 5.5%, compared with 47.4% 20 years ago.Despite short-term difficulties, internal dynamics which have boosted Africa's surge over the last decade are still in play, says AfDB President Donald Kaberuka. “The internal consumer power is still there, the booming urban populations are still there,” Kaberuka said recently, adding that information technology advances were still "leapfrogging" across the continent at a rapid pace, and more governments were managing their economies better.Celebrating Africa’s rise, however, does not mean ignoring its many challenges. Headline grabbing reports of high African growth rates, glittering cities and a thriving middle class tell only part of the story. To ensure a successful and sustained transformation of their economies, African countries must use the coming years to step up efforts to diversify their largely resource-based economies by investing in a modern and productive agriculture, building up a still-weak industrial base and encouraging entrepreneurship.Wanted: a transformational agendaWork on a new transformational agenda has started. “Agriculture should be an engine for industrialization on the continent,” African Union Commission Chairwoman Nkosazana Diamini-Zuma told a recent African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Better agriculture infrastructure and research to boost productivity and food security were important, she added. Progress on modernizing African farming is slow, however, with the ambitious Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) adopted by AU leaders in 2003 gaining only slow traction.There is a new focus on industrialization. Participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs), which allow developing countries to develop specific skills or products for participation in international production networks, is still low across the continent. As they develop new strategies to enable better access to global value chains, governments must also support private-sector development in manufacturing, encourage foreign investments and promote young entrepreneurs, especially by easing their access to finance and credit.Africa’s growing number of young people need jobs. With the population set to double from 1 billion to 2 billion over the next four decades, governments must ensure that the youth bulge – Africa has the youngest population in the world, with the number of Africans aged 15-24 set to double to 400 million by 2045 – is transformed into a true demographic dividend by providing employment and economic opportunities to young people. Failure to do so could lead to social unrest, political strife and a rise in extremism.Social inequalities remain a challenge. Tax Justice Network-Africa and Christian Aid warn that taxes in many African countries disadvantage the poor. Tax systems that could be used to redistribute wealth more fairly are being undermined by tax dodging and illicit finance flows facilitated by off-shore secrecy. Corruption has long been recognised as a major problem as has poor governance. Africa has a long way to go in building integrated regional markets and improving and building infrastructure, moves that will promote intra-African trade and investments.The establishment of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) is an important step forward in the continent’s long uphill struggle to establish peace and stability. The EU’s African Peace Facility is providing APSA with much-needed support but as the recent explosion of violence in the Central African Republic illustrates, ending strife in Africa still too often requires determined military intervention by AU and foreign troops.Africa-Europe: more important than ever The Africa-Europe summit can and should be an important milestone in changing the dynamics of a long-standing relationship. Africa and the EU have inter-acted since 1963 through the Yaounde Convention, the four Lome Conventions and the Cotonou Agreement signed in 2000 between the EU and the African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group. The first EU-Africa summit in 2000 put a stronger focus on Africa as a partner for Europe.The EU-Africa Strategic Partnership established in 2007 in Lisbon was expected to move the relationship to a new level, with both sides agreeing to pursue common interests and strategic objectives which went beyond the focus of traditional development policy and to forge a partnership of equals. However, the track record of the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES) which stands at the core of the partnership, is mixed, with neither side fully satisfied with the overall results. Europe’s negotiation of trade-focused Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with African states – a process that started over ten years ago – puts additional strain on relations.Africa-Europe ties are an important element in the growing network of alliances and coalitions which are emerging to tackle regional and global challenges. As they grapple with climate change, immigration, extremism and the task of ensuring equitable, sustained and inclusive growth, Africa and Europe have more to gain from their partnership than ever before. In a changing world, Africa-Europe ties are still relevant - but need careful nurturing.
Fashioning "Global Europe" for the 21st Century (Originally published 01/10/13)
It’s not enough to talk about the European Union's standing and influence in today’s rapidly changing world: the EU needs to thrash out a new foreign policy adapted and responsive to 21st century challenges.This is urgent. True, EU leaders, foreign ministers and senior official often engage in bouts of hand-wringing over Europe’s “loss of influence” and declining presence on the global stage. This is often followed by a resounding thumping of chests as everyone agrees that Europe is – after all – still an important and relevant international player. It’s not that simple, however.Europe certainly has much to offer. The EU single market attracts goods, investments and people from across the globe. European technology helps the world tackle climate change, urbanisation and other 21st-century challenges, European design excites fashionistas the world over and tourists flock to European cities to enjoy good food, wine and visit exquisite monuments.Europe’s ‘soft power’ resonates when it comes to peace-making and reconciliation, trade, aid and the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. With Croatia now in and others lining up to join, the EU retains its zone of influence in the neighbourhood. And as the Eurozone crisis gives way to recovery, however fragile, global concerns about Europe’s economic performance are easing.And yet. There is no doubt that the EU’s star does not shine as brightly as it should in many skies. EU-watchers who once – too optimistically – believed that the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service would lead to a more forceful EU foreign policy are disappointed.Their disappointment is even stronger when it comes to European security and defence policy. Many believe that because it has no army, navy or air force at its command, the EU will always be a second class international actor, handing out cheques but not pro-actively influencing global events and decisions.No appetite for military actionEurope’s partners know that while governments in France and Britain may still have an appetite for military interventions in response to international crisis, their citizens – and Europeans more generally – certainly don’t. Significantly, Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy and an industrial machine that’s the envy of the planet, has made clear that it is not overly interested in taking on global responsibilities of the military kind.Germany is viewed by many as a reluctant giant which, as one newspaper recently put it, seems content to lurk in the shadows. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of saying that Europe must become more competitive as China and other powers rise. “The world doesn’t sleep,” she said recently. However, she hasn’t coupled that with any grand visions for a continental revival.Within Europe, the doomsayers — of which there are many — insist that the Eurozone crisis and the impact of economic stagnation on European societies have accelerated the loss of EU influence in the international arena.China, India, Russia, Brazil and others are often seen in the EU as fierce rivals who want a ‘full-scale reversal’ of their relationship with the West by demanding better representation in multilateral fora and a stronger voice in global governance. Others argue that Europe should be more assertive and more self-confident when dealing with the cheeky new kids on the bloc.It was partly to respond to such concerns that the EEAS was set up three years ago to act as an EU foreign ministry — and certainly the EU flag is now more often seen flying across the world. But in today’s competitive world of rising powers, new alliances and increased geo-strategic competition, the EEAS is still seen as under-performing.Much of the criticism is levelled at Catherine Ashton, the head of the EEAS and the EU’s de facto foreign minister. It has to be said, however, that Ashton’s role is a difficult one and constrained by the limited space she is allowed by some of the EU’s bigger member states, including Britain and France.Pressure for a more effective foreign policyThe good news is that some EU countries want to go further. The foreign ministers of Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden argued recently that Europe needs a strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world. The famous question posed by Henry Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state, about the dialling code for Europe has, by now, by and large been answered, the ministers said.“The critical question is no longer how to reach us, but instead what Europe should say when the phone rings,” they complained, adding: “we now have the hardware of institutions in place, we need to focus on the software of policies that makes the entire thing operate in a clear and credible way.”
The ministers are right: Europe needs a new strategic framework to help it navigate a more complex world than the one that existed in 2003, when Javier Solana, the former EU “high representative” for foreign and security policy, drew up the first-ever EU strategy for living in a globalised world.
Such a new blueprint for “global Europe” need not be long and complicated. It needs to start by recognising that the world has changed dramatically in the last decade - and include recommendations for a few pivotal changes in policies and attitudes.
While the 2003 document centred on traditional security threats, the focus should now shift to non-traditional challenges – climate change, energy and food security, maritime piracy, cyber security - which must be tackled urgently.
The EU has strong expertise and experience in all these areas. But concerted international action on these and other issues requires that countries and organisations build new networks and alliances. It means working with like-minded nations but above all also cooperating with non-like minded countries. It means talking with others, not haranguing or talking down to them. And this means a change of EU diplomatic tone and style.
Respect for emerging powers
Global competition for influence has increased as China, Russia, India and Brazil become more assertive and more vocal on the global stage. The EU may have “strategic partnerships” with these countries, but the agreements need to be reinforced and strengthened – and the EU has to learn to treat these nations with respect and use their insight to readjust its worldview.
Working only with the big guys of the emerging world is not enough. The new world order is being fashioned not just by China and Brazil but also by countries like Indonesia and Mexico, Kenya, Australia and organisations such as ASEAN. The EU needs urgently to upgrade its ties with these nations and bring them on board as partners.
The compelling need for better global governance in today's still-chaotic multipolar world demands such cooperation.
Relations with Turkey are an albatross around the EU's neck. They need to be repaired urgently in order to allow for real consultation on regional and global flash-points. Europe's relations with Turkey are under close scrutiny the world over, with people questioning just why the EU remains so reluctant to open its doors to such an important regional and international actor. The answers are not edifying.
The EU's international and moral standing are conditional on its ability to build an inclusive society which celebrates diversity instead of fearing it. Europe cannot condemn discrimination against minorities in Pakistan and Myanmar if its own track record in dealing with such issues is not above reproach.
Democracy and human rights
Europe's values - democracy, the rule of law, human rights (to name a few) - are important and should be promoted more actively across the globe. But those doing the promotion should do so with sensitivity and humility. The message is too important to be drowned out by arrogance.
While often irked by EU hectoring and lecturing on human rights, many countries are anxious to learn more from Europe about regional integration, reconciliation and reform. Europe's "soft power" lies in its ability to teach an anxious world about conflict management and peace-building.
The point has been made most sharply by Asian leaders like former Indonesian foreign minister Hasan Wirajuda who have warned that the gains of the "Asian Century" are at risk because of unresolved historical conflicts and abiding mistrust in the region.
Ironicially while the new world order demands the establishment of networks and coalitions, the EU will become a more significant power if it builds on its uniqueness as a foreign policy actor. As such, while the transatlantic relationship is vital and important, hanging on to US coat-tails, especially when it comes to Asia, is not a good option.
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership certainly has its value in terms of jobs and growth on both sides of the Atlantic but it would be unfortunate if it is seen as the West "ganging up" against the rest. For the moment, that is how China and other Asians see it. The EU should act urgently to correct that impression - and invest more in the outcome of the Bali ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation in December.
Civil society actorsForeign policy today is not just the exclusive preserve of diplomats. Civil society actors, social media, sports personalities, artists, academics and think tanks are now an essential part of the game. The EU's new global outreach must include such thought-leaders. As the Arab Spring has shown, dealing only with governments is no longer an option.As Javier Solana, the EU’s former ‘high representative’ for foreign and security policy said recently, in today’s world of flux, the nature of power is changing. Power was once measured in the size of armies and population, not in terms of GDP per capita, reputation and whether you get to host the Olympic Games. It is also about ideas, innovation, art and culture.It is worth remembering that while military force and interventions can provoke regime change, in the end, all parties — the victorious and the defeated — have to come to the negotiating table and find political solutions. And this is something the EU and Europeans are very good at.It is often argued that further EU integration will lead to a united, coherent, and effective European foreign policy. This is true of course. But the integration process remains slow and painful. The need for a smarter and more forceful EU foreign policy is urgent.
Renewing ASEM ahead of 2014 summit (Originally published 25/09/13)
Most multilateral organisations face the daunting task of adapting to new 21st century economic, political and social realities.Set up in the aftermath of World War II, global institutions at the core of the international system, such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are under pressure to respond to the rise of the world’s emerging powers.The G20, which brings together industrialised countries and the world’s leading rising powers - including China, India and Brazil - was created in 1999 to complement the more restricted G8 composed of traditional industrialised powers. Demands for more effective governance now also beset the G20.Not surprisingly, renewal and reform are also the name of the game for ASEM, the Asia-Europe partnership launched in Bangkok in March 1996 to build stronger region-to-region ties.ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), with its 51 partners, is an important multilateral platform for Asia-Europe contacts which allows the two regions to interact in myriad ways.Trade and investment flows are booming, the two regions share concerns about regional and global peace and security and meet regularly within the ASEM framework to discuss issues as varied as urbanisation, river basin management, food security and education.But there is no doubt: ASEM must adapt to the changing landscape in both Asia and Europe if it is to remain credible and relevant.Interestingly, that means going back to the original informality and flexibility of ASEM and the immense Asia-Europe networking opportunities it offers.On the plus side, ASEM includes five of the European Union’s strategic partners – China, Japan, India, South Korea and Russia - and four of the UN Security Council’s permanent members – China, Russia, Britain and France.The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding members in 1996 – is a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour. Once inside the partnership, European and Asian countries of all sizes interact with each other on an equal footing.The forum also provides a platform for ample bilateral contacts between leaders and officials of both sides.Yet, the need for renewal is pressing. ASEM meetings over the years have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions.The progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms.The consensus is that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.Ironically this could be achieved by taking ASEM “back to the future” and rediscovering the initial rationale behind the partnership. The aim is to recover ASEM’s initial focus on substance over protocol and ritual.Efforts to make ASEM more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities – have dominated deliberations for the last few years.Progress on revitalising ASEM is gaining momentum in the run-up to the ASEM summit hosted by the EU and set to be held in Milan, Italy, in autumn 2014.ASEM foreign ministers meeting in Delhi on November 11-12 are expected to endorse a number of changes which many hope will inject new life into the Asia-Europe partnership.Asian and European policymakers have agreed to streamline and simplify ASEM working methods to ensure that ASEM foreign ministers and leaders engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.As such, when they meet in Delhi in November, in addition to attending 2 official plenary sessions, ASEM foreign ministers will engage in a “retreat” to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue.Discussions in the plenaries will focus on sustainable economic growth and development and on non-traditional security issues, including issues such as food, energy and water security, cyber security and counter-terrorism.The “retreat” will look at international and regional flashpoints including the Middle East, North Korea and Iran.Efforts are being made to ensure that chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings are short, simple and to-the-point.Based on existing mechanisms, there is now agreement to work on cooperation projects which are even more visible and tangible for benefit of Asia and Europe.Following the recent membership of Norway, Switzerland and Bangladesh, ASEM expansion is expected to continue as Croatia, which became the 28th member state of the EU on July 1 2013, formally joins ASEM next year.ASEM partners also face the uphill task of securing stronger public understanding, awareness and support for the Asia-Europe partnership, especially in the run up to the summit in 2014 and two years later when ASEM celebrates its 20th anniversary.If ASEM reform is implemented as planned, 2016 could become an important milestone in a reinvigorated Asia-Europe partnership, a must in the 21st century.
Asia-Europe increase focus on security (Originally published 17/07/13)
Trade and business have long dominated Asia-Europe relations. Economic links are still vitally important in relations between the two regions. But Asian and European policymakers are also steadily stepping up their engagement on security issues.The emphasis on Asia-Europe security ties is not new – but it is becoming stronger and more visible.In both regions, there is a growing awareness that while the “Asian Century” has so far focused on strong economic growth and development, Asia also needs to tackle many difficult and potentially explosive historical enmities and complex crises.Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Europeans too are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia, not least in view of the unprecedented level of economic interdependence between the two regions.This has meant strong European Union condemnation of North Korea’s missile and nuclear activities and calls for a negotiated settlement of conflicting national territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues has meant a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.Last year, the European Union signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), ASEAN’s security blueprint for the region.High-level European and Asian representatives have met in recent months in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), Asia’s prime security forum, as well as the Shangri La Dialogue, an annual informal gathering of security experts held in Singapore, which EU HRVP Ashton attended this year for the first time.Discussions on security issues are also an important part of political pillar in ASEM, the process of Asia–Europe meetings launched in 1996.“Asia still has to deal with security issues that have been settled in Europe,” says Viorel Isticioaia Budura, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European Union’s External Action Service (EEAS).“We admire Asia’s economic rise. But many Asian countries still face the challenges associated with nation and state-building. They are burdened by disputes and security flashpoints which need proper handling and solutions. If left unattended, these disputes could cause trouble for everyone,” he says.As Asian governments seek to build sustainable peace and stability in the region, Europe’s experience in healing historical wounds and reconciliation can be helpful.“We are interesting partners for Asia. We do not claim to be a "model". It’s not a question of copying Europe, it’s about learning from our past, including from our own mistakes, and seeking inspiration in what may be relevant.”Conventional military threats and conflicts are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to non-traditional security threats, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Europe has the know-how to work with Asia on questions like disaster-prevention and management, climate change, pandemics, terrorism and questions linked to food, water, energy and cyber security.The EU’s “comprehensive approach” to security calls for the deployment of a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.“Europe’s experience in community and institution-building and in constructing structures for regional security is an added asset for its partners,” says Isticioaia Budura.“We have learned how to engage in preventive diplomacy, confidence-building and establishing norms and rules to ensure regional peace and stability.”Peace in Europe was a long time coming. In contrast, “Asia is in a rush…so we must find a smart way to share all relevant experiences,” he adds.ASEM provides an ideal, and “unbelievably meaningful” format for Asia-Europe exchanges on all issues of mutual interest, including security challenges, says Isticioaia Budura.“It allows us to better understand the complexity of developments in Asia… to take the pulse, take into account challenges and see how we can contribute.”Regular ASEM meetings help Asia and Europe to improve their mutual understanding, identify common interests and cooperation, he says, adding: “It is good to have Asian and European leaders talking to each other.”“In a process of globalisation which keeps accelerating, ASEM has a very distinct relevance.”Since its launch, ASEM has worked to prevent the decoupling of regions and stopping Asia and Europe from turning inwards. This is still true. “We are moving together in the same direction,” Isticioaia Budura underlines.Despite the Eurozone crisis, Europe is continuing to engage with Asia. By voicing their confidence in Europe’s economic future, Asian countries, for their part, have helped to stabilise the Euro.ASEM’s informality, large membership and flexibility mean that all countries have the freedom to bring up any issue that interests them. “Both regions can talk about their major concerns. They can choose what they see as relevant,” says Isticioaia Budura.Discussions focus on questions as diverse as disaster-prevention, non-proliferation, disarmament, human rights, energy and water management. In these and other areas, “there is a useful exchange of information and experience,” he notes.When they meet in October next year, ASEM leaders will focus on recovery, growth and jobs, Isticioaia Budura predicts.The ASEM message is also likely to be that Europe can work with Asia to build sustained peace in the region and tackle non-traditional security challenges.
EU needs stronger focus on Asian security (Originally published 01/07/13)
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s decision to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia’s premier multilateral security platform, is an important step forward in Europe’s quest for stronger engagement on security issues with Asia.The EU has so far played up its economic credentials in Asia. Certainly, Asians value Europe as the region’s second largest trading partner and the biggest investor.That’s only part of the story, however. As Asia faces up to a host of old and new tensions, it’s time Europe switched the focus from trade to security in its conversation with Asia.Europeans have long believed – and many Asians have argued – that the absence of “hard” military power erodes Europe’s standing in Asia. Europe’s “soft power” was viewed as inferior to American and Chinese “hard power”.This was possibly true a decade ago. But Asia’s remarkable rise in the 21st Century – and China’s rapid ascendance as the region’s dominant nation - has prompted a radical reassessment of the challenges facing the region.The US “pivot” or rebalancing toward Asia responds to some of the region’s military concerns linked to China’s rise.But military threats are not the only question on Asia’s new agenda.Asian policymakers today are increasingly turning their attention to tackling non-traditional security issues, an area where the EU has acquired special skills and expertise.Uneasy about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region, many in Asia believe they can learn from Europe’s valuable experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.Indonesia’s former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, says the “Asian Century” must be about more than dynamic economic growth rates; rising Asia must also become a region of sustained peace and stability.The point is also made strongly by Javier Solana, the EU’s former foreign and security policy chief. As an “unfinished continent” where historical wounds have not fully healed and where reconciliation has not been achieved, Asia needs norms, rules and institutions which ensure peaceful co-existence, Solana wrote recently.Having successfully reconciled once-warring parties, Europe has a “unique toolbox on offer”, Solana says.The EU must, however, become better at projecting these special qualities and skills.Ashton did point out at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore last month that the EU’s strength lies in its ability to work on a “comprehensive” approach which includes a wide range of tools and instruments – short and long-term, humanitarian and development, security and political - to tackle new challenges.And she is right: this mix does certainly make Europe a “unique global partner for Asia on security issues.”The message was delivered again at the ARF. It needs to be repeated and articulated with more conviction, resonance – and empathy. Asians want to learn from Europe’s successes in regional integration and institution-building. They do not want to hear lectures about their weaknesses.Stronger engagement on Asian security issues will require a deeper EU dialogue with ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – which is in the forefront of pan-Asian peace-building efforts.It means regular participation in Asian meetings by European ministers and senior EU officials as well as constructive contributions to ways in which the ARF could move from its current focus on confidence-building to preventive diplomacy.Proposals to organise a gathering of all signatories of the ASEAN Treaty on Amity and Cooperation (TAC), the security blueprint for the region which the EU signed last year can also be pursued.The EU’s security interest in the region is not just about ensuring the safety of sea lanes and navigation in Asian waters. Europe can help and inspire Asia as it seeks to ease historical enmities, build sustained peace and tackle non-traditional security challenges.
Exploring ideas on ASEM’s future (Originally published 03/06/13)
Ever since the first high-profile Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Bangkok in March 1996, Asian and European leaders, ministers and officials have been working on myriad fronts to forge a stronger region-to-region partnership on issues as diverse as green growth, global peace and prosperity, human rights, education and urbanisation.Their work may not always make the headlines. And the progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms and that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.With the next ASEM summit set to be held in Brussels in autumn 2014, the race is on to try and inject fresh impetus into a process which all 51 ASEM partners agree is a compelling necessity – but one which must be deepened and made more dynamic to stay relevant in a rapidly-changing world.ASEM foreign ministers, who gather in New Delhi on November 11-12, are expected to come up with fresh ideas for reviving the Asia-Europe partnership.As illustrated at a recent symposium held in Yangzhou, China, the problem facing ASEM is not a lack of initiatives on revitalizing the relationship; rather, the challenge is to find common ground among the many suggestions being put forward by ASEM partners – and then to refine and streamline recommendations before presentation to ministers and leaders.Significantly, all 51 partners continue to underline the strategic significance of ASEM in the 21st Century. The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding partners in 1996 – is seen as a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour.Over the years, ASEM has also served as a “new Silk Road” connecting the two continents and providing a unique platform for dialogue and cooperation, says an Asian official, adding: “Asia and Europe need each other…we are closely interconnected and interdependent and draw on each other’s’ strengths.”European policymakers say they are similarly confident that ASEM has great merits. “Its relevance has increased. ASEM is informal, comprehensive and still very attractive,” said one European official in Yangzhou.The challenge is to maintain ASEM’s unique informality, networking and flexibility but also make it more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities.ASEM should identify “more cooperation projects which are visible, tangible and serve the interests of people,” said an Asian official, adding: “ASEM should be a forum for action.”More frequent meetings of ASEM economic officials and ministers were mooted, with participants also suggesting that ASEM should be used to explore new ideas, to stimulate and facilitate progress in other fora and encourage capacity-building across sectors.The need for more ASEM contacts with civil society, including members of parliament, business representatives, scholars and journalists as well as local authorities, was underlined.The most difficult task facing policymakers is a much-awaited overhaul of ASEM’s working methods in order to make meetings – especially leaders’ summits held once every two years – more interesting, relevant and productive.Recapturing the excitement and energy evident at ASEM’s launch in 1996 will not be easy, however. Over the years, ASEM meetings have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have also become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions. “These meeting are a bottleneck in ASEM” said one senior official in Yangzhou. “We have become a housekeeping body.”Instead of reviewing a series of global and regional developments, ASEM summits should have a more streamlined agenda, allowing leaders to engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.Leaders and foreign ministers should also meet in a so-called “retreat” format to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue. “We want them to really get to know each other, forge friendships and understanding,” said one participant.Chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings should be short, simple and to-the-point rather than long and procedural. They should be media-friendly and understandable to the general public, helping to enhance ASEM visibility.The long-running debate on whether or not ASEM needs a secretariat to provide institutional back-up was discussed. The drive to set up an ASEM Secretariat is essentially driven by Asian partners of ASEM who feel the need for such an institution on their side.Europeans, on the other hand, are generally satisfied with the current situation since the European External Action Service plays an important coordination role for European partners.As preparations intensify for the meeting of foreign ministers in Delhi, the conversation on strengthening ASEM is likely to gain pace. The aim is to prepare not only for the summit in Brussels in 2014 but for ASEM’s 20th anniversary celebrations in 2016.As participants in Yangzhou said, the upcoming anniversary should not only take stock of ASEM cooperation so far but also set it on a new and revitalised course for the future.