View from abroad : Working on a new brand Rwanda (Originally published 20th September at dawn.com)
Most countries ban the entry of drugs and alcohol on to their territory. As we prepare for landing in Kigali, the captain issues an unusual warning: Rwanda does not allow plastic bags. As I turn in bewilderment and some amusement to my Ugandan neighbour, he grins at my reaction. Jumping up to get rid of the duty-free plastic bag in his hand baggage, he explains that Kigali is arguably Africa’s cleanest city. And the government wants to keep it that way.The message is repeated at the very grand World Export Development Forum (WEDF) that I am attending in Kigali. As I moderate a panel on “Tourism and Development”, Abdou Jobe, Gambia’s Minister for Tourism, tells the audience, he is very impressed by the clean streets of Kigali. “A model for all of us,” he says with a smile as the hall bursts into applause.Cleanliness and environmental protection are only one small part of Rwanda’s new post-genocide narrative. As the country rebuilds after the horrors of the 1994 genocide, the government — and the people — are in a hurry, sharing a common desire to move forward as quickly as possible.The past is not forgotten — Rwanda commemorated 20 years of the genocide this year — but it is a spur to the future. My tourist guide takes me to the genocide memorial. But he is equally keen to show me the shiny shopping malls, banks and new high-rises coming up in central Kigali.It’s difficult not to be impressed. Having visited the country and neighbouring Burundi before the genocide, I remember Kigali as a sleepy town, overrun by aid workers. The “land of the thousand hills”, with its coffee and tea plantations, was strikingly beautiful but also very poor. Landlocked Rwanda needed roads, bridges and airports. But development was slow and plodding. And then there was the genocide. On April 6, 1994, a plane carrying Rwandan president Juvenal Habyarimana was shot down over the airport at Kigali, triggering massive civil unrest between the majority Hutu and minority Tutsi people. It is usually estimated that more than 800,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsis, were murdered in the following three months.I remember the feeling of despair as reports came in of the killing and maiming, of neighbours turning against each other, of some priests joining in the mass murders — and of the international community’s failure to stop the devastation. The United Nations has now apologised for its failure to act.The mea culpa is welcome, a Rwandan colleague tells me. But what the country needs now is to expand its trading potential, export more, attract investments, welcome more tourists, embrace information technology, improve connectivity.The list is long and ambitious. At the WEDF conference, President Paul Kagame insists that Rwandans are not going to give up until they have it all. It’s about hard work, ambition, jobs and growth, he says. Africa’s story — and the Rwandan story — is about high growth rates, providing jobs for the continent’s huge population of young people, making use of the talent and skills of women. The quicker the world realises the truth about the opportunities offered by a rising Africa, the better.Certainly, the Chinese, Indians and the Turks are listening. Negative perceptions of Africa as a continent mired in poverty and disease may still be difficult to shed in the West, but the WEDF conference is buzzing with Indian business leaders and Chinese entrepreneurs eager to invest in what many in Kigali insist is “the continent of the future”.There are other things that strike me. Rwanda, a former Belgian colony, used to be a French-speaking country but has switched with enthusiasm to English. Rwanda is the only country in the world with more women than men in parliament, a statistic that has attracted a good deal of international attention. The country boasts that 97 per cent of its children attend primary school — the highest rate in Africa. And Rwanda has another asset in the 1,000-strong population of mountain gorillas, some of the last surviving on the planet, which live in its rainforests and attract thousands of avid tourists.Much of the transformation has been engineered by Kagame, a Tutsi who grew up as a refugee in neighbouring Uganda, and led the Rwandan Patriotic Front in its resistance against the Hutu militias rampaging through the country. After the genocide ended in July 1994, he became vice-president. He became president in 2000 after his predecessor resigned and then won elections in 2003 and 2010.There is no doubting Kagame’s domestic popularity and reputation as an economic reformer. But critics complain of the president’s authoritarian style of government, allegedly patchy human rights record, and media controls. There are accusations that the Rwandan army is involved in and responsible for prolonging the conflict across the border in Congo. Recent hints that he may run for a third term as president in 2017 — a move which would require changing the constitution which allow for only two seven-year terms — have raised concerns.But Kagame is having none of it. “I think at some point we need to leave countries and people to decide their own affairs,” he told students and faculty staff after a recent speech in the US. At the WEDF, I hear that Kagame engages in the same “tough love” approach towards his people as Lee Kuan Yew, the hard-driving former prime minister of Singapore.Certainly, modern Rwanda is not yet Singapore but it is a far cry from the sleepy nation I remember from over twenty years ago. The genocide-devastated country is now one of Africa’s most determined and hard-working nations. As I leave the country, the man at the immigration desk asks me to come back soon. “And the next time, don’t just attend a conference, travel around and see this country,” he urges. I tell him that I intend to.
ASEAN-EU to talk trade, security (Originally published 18/07/2014)
Asia remains high on the European Union’s foreign and security policy agenda following the meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations[1]) in Brussels on July 23.In August, security discussions dominated EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s participation in the influential ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. And mid-October, European and Asian leaders will gather in Milan for summit talks on injecting new life and momentum into their 18-year old ASEM (Asia Europe Meetings) partnership. (read more)Asia and Europe have worked hard to maintain momentum in their relations despite pressing - and difficult - domestic and regional concerns. Such endeavours are to their credit. However, the challenge facing participants at both the upcoming ASEAN and ASEM meetings is to build more trust and understanding - and take their relationship to a higher, more strategic level.Discussions at the EU-ASEAN meeting focused on an array of global and regional issues. But more importantly, both sides have specific long-standing demands which are likely to be raised.A “win-win” deal?For the EU, membership of the East Asia Summit (EAS) remains an important strategic goal. The 18-member forum which discusses security and development includes the ten-member ASEAN as well as the United States, Russia, India and others. ASEAN’s reaction so far to EU membership of the East Asia Summit has varied from lukewarm to hostile, however.ASEAN, meanwhile, is looking for an EU upgrade to status of “strategic partner”, the appointment of a special EU envoy accredited to the Jakarta-based ASEAN Secretariat and the regular convening of EU-ASEAN summits. While not opposed to either of these points, the EU has put ASEAN demands on hold.No breakthrough was expected at the meeting in Brussels. But if both sides play their cards correctly by engaging in innovative and creative diplomacy, the meeting could pave the way - further down the line - for a “win-win” deal on the EU’s entry into the EAS and the elevation of ASEAN to one of Europe’s “strategic partners”.As expected meanwhile, with the end-2015 deadline approaching for establishing a border-free ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), demands for the revival of the once-abandoned effort to negotiate an EU-ASEAN free trade deal have resurfaced. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said such a pact could be negotiated once the AEC is in place. (read more)Certainly an EU-ASEAN FTA could increase Europe’s visibility in a landscape crowded by multiple Asian free trade initiatives including the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) linking ASEAN to all leading economies in the region.Domestic challengesKeeping Asia-Europe engagement on track has not been easy for either region. The EU still faces the over-arching challenge of consolidating a still-slow economic recovery, creating jobs, especially for young people, and deciding on the distribution of key EU posts, including the appointment of the next high-representative for foreign and security policy. Hammering out a coherent strategy vis a vis a more assertive and often-unpredictable Russia remains a challenge. The EU is also still struggling to understand and respond to the continuing chaos and conflict in its southern neighbourhood.In Asia, meanwhile, conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas continue to strain relations between China and many of its neighbours and also challenge ASEAN’s claim to play a central role in the region. In addition, ASEAN is grappling with a military coup in Thailand, ethnic violence in Myanmar amid preparations for next year’s presidential elections and the year-long political crisis over disputed election results in Cambodia. While Jakarta mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is clearly the winner in Indonesia’s presidential elections, competing claims of victory by rival Prabowo Subianto have created unnecessary political confusion in Southeast Asia’s most populous nation and most robust democracy.On the economic front, the Asian Development Bank has cut its initial growth outlook for the region from 5 percent to 4.7 percent even as the region struggles to tackle problems posed by urbanisation, climate change and unequal development.Growing connectivityThe EU has emerged as an important partner in implementing the Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 (read more). The plan, which includes the forging of physical, institutional and people-to-people links, is discussed in the EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity. The first such dialogue was held in Brussels earlier this year.Ashton’s participation in the ARF meeting in Napydaw ensures a much-needed, stronger EU-ASEAN dialogue on increasingly complex security issues. In a marked change over past years, there is already recognition of the need for a stronger EU-ASEAN conversation on security, including on non-traditional security threats including climate change, poverty alleviation, pandemics and illegal immigration.With 50% of world trade in tonnage passing through the South China Sea, the EU has taken a lead in establishing an EU-ASEAN high-level dialogue on maritime security, with a focus on port security, maritime surveillance, and the joint management of resources including fisheries and oil and gas.Significantly, while they once stayed carefully out of key Asian security disputes, EU countries with other Group of Seven leaders have expressed concern over tensions between China and some other Asian countries in the East and South China Seas, warned against any use of force and urged all parties to clarify and pursue their territorial and maritime claims in accordance with international law.Deeper trustWhile much binds the two regions, upgrading EU-ASEAN ties requires deeper trust and understanding between the two sides. Encouragingly the earlier acrimony over participation and attendance at meetings is now buried. Yet like ASEM gatherings, ASEAN meetings must become more inter-active and less formal and ritualistic. The focus on agenda items, prepared statements and out-dated rhetoric needs to be replaced by more open, frank and critical albeit constructive exchanges.Both sides have much to discuss and share. They should be allowed to do so – even on difficult issues such as the military coup in Thailand, the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar or tensions in the South China Seas - without taking offense or engaging in an overzealous regard for diplomatic niceties.ASEAN and the EU have been talking to and working with each other for several decades - but the last three years have been especially important in binding the two regions together. The Brunei Plan of Action adopted in 2012 laid the groundwork for a further intensification of EU-ASEAN ties. The meeting in Brussels should give added traction to EU-ASEAN engagement by preparing for a qualitative upgrade of relations within two to three years.
Myanmar today: Tackling the good, the bad and the ugly (Originally published 09/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)
After five decades of repressive military rule, Myanmar’s political and economic transformation continues to impress. The country is preparing for milestone elections in autumn 2015, ceasefire talks have opened with ethnic groups and work begun on important constitutional changes ahead of next year’s polls. With the economy growing by 6-7 percent a year and labour costs still low, foreign investments are pouring in. Myanmar’s current chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides President Thein Sein with a further opportunity to boost the country’s regional and international profile.And yet. Initial optimism over Myanmar’s transition is beginning to wear thin. Increasing ethnic violence and civil unrest, especially in Rakhine state, among Buddhist groups and the stateless Rohingya Muslims, is a big, dark spot on Myanmar’s credentials. With thousands of Rohingya forced to live in overcrowded camps or flee by boat, beleaguered relief agencies – many of which have been forced out of the country - have warned of a humanitarian crisis in the strife-hit state.International criticism of the government’s failure to stem the violence is increasing, with 46 countries, including the United States (US), recently joining forces with the European Union (EU) at the United Nations Human Rights Council to express serious concern over the situation of the Rohingya and other minorities in Rakhine State. The resolution also asked for the extension of the mandate of the Special Rapporteur on Myanmar for one more year and urged an opening of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the country.Inclusive growthAdditionally, there is concern that while growth rates are high, Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most impoverished countries. Foreign partners worry that any slowdown in reform efforts in the run up to elections will make it even more difficult for the government to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.On the bright side, attracted by a growing consumer base and low-cost workforce, foreign investors are lining up to establish a foothold in Myanmar. A foreign investment law was passed in 2012 allowing some overseas firms to fully own ventures. In a bid to further open up, a Telecommunications Law was passed last year and foreign energy companies have recently been given rights to explore offshore Myanmar. The country is also slowly opening up its banking sector, with foreign banks expected to be allowed to operate independently by the end of the year. About 35 international banks already have representative offices in Myanmar.The next stage of political reform looks set to be especially challenging. The government is hoping for progress toward peace through the signature of a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with ethnic armed groups. Preliminary talks were held in Thailand at the end of January and the second round in Yangon, on March 9-10. The third round to coordinate the joint-drafting of a single nationwide document was completed on April 8, with both sides agreeing on the titles of the seven-chapter draft which will be further discussed in early May. Formal high-level peace talks to set a date for the signing of the agreement are expected to take place in Hpa-an, capital of Kayin state. Once ready, the deal will be signed by the government, parliament, the armed forces, political parties and leaders of different ethnic groups.The government has also embarked on the difficult task of amending the constitution, including article 59(f), which debars opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming president because of the foreign citizenship of her children and late husband. The process is proving to be more complex than anticipated, however, prompting fears the reform process is running out of steam.President Sein raised hopes earlier this year by voicing support for changing the constitution to allow “any citizen,” to run for the presidency in 2015. But preliminary non-binding recommendations issued in January by the Constitutional Review Joint Committee, a 109-member parliamentary body tasked with reviewing proposals to amend the nation’s 2008 military-drafted constitution, suggest insufficient support for this change although a greater devolution of authority to states and regions, a key demand of many ethnic groups, appears to have the green light. These recommendations will now be reviewed by a 31-member committee which will, in turn, report to the parliament.The census currently under way in the country – which also asks sensitive questions about race and ethnicity that human rights groups have repeatedly warned puts vulnerable populations such as the Rohingya (regarded by the authorities as illegal Bengali immigrants) at additional risk, is another complication. Ethnic minorities, which together make up about 40 percent of Myanmar’s population, contend that they were not properly consulted ahead of the census, which requires respondents to identify themselves as one of 135 ethnic groups.Cautious ASEAN chairMyanmar joined ASEAN in 1997 and was to take the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 but was passed over amid international pressure due to its poor human rights record. Although the country now shines in the global spotlight, as current ASEAN chair, Myanmar faces a tough regional agenda, with its partners and the international community anxious about the country’s ability to host the multiple high-level meetings scheduled for the year and to keep ASEAN on course to meet its 2015 end-target for establishing a frontier-free economic community.At a time when ASEAN needs strong leadership, dealing with difficult issues such as conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines will also be a challenge. Analysts say Myanmar performed well at the first informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers held in Bagan earlier this year by steering the group to release a short statement calling on states to settle disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In comparison, two years ago, when Cambodia was ASEAN chair, the organisation split under pressure from Beijing to avoid any mention of the South China Sea.Significantly, Myanmar is also current chair of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), and as such is under strong pressure from increasingly vocal ASEAN civil society groups to adhere to the human rights commitments which are part of the ASEAN Charter.A role for Europe Despite competition from the US, China, Japan, India and others, the EU has quickly emerged as a key partner for Myanmar. EU sanctions – except on exports of weapons - were lifted in April 2013 and the country was brought into the “Everything but Arms” trade regime which provides duty free and quota access for exports from least developed states. As a result, bilateral EU-Myanmar trade is expanding rapidly, climbing up to €569 million last year, a 41% increase compared to 2012 (€403 million).EU investment in Myanmar has so far been limited as a result of sanctions. According to Myanmar’s official figures, cumulated existing EU investments amounted to some US$ 3.1 billion in 2013 (9% of Myanmar’s FDI). This is set to change, however, as investors scour the country for business opportunities and the EU and Myanmar launch negotiations on an investment protection treaty which Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht has said will become an important accelerator for reform in the country.“Experience has shown that improving legal certainty and predictability for investments is key in providing business opportunities and much-needed development for this growing economy,” De Gucht said during a recent visit to Myanmar. The deal is expected to provide European investors with guarantees against discrimination, expropriation without compensation and protection against unfair and inequitable treatment.EU aid to Myanmar is increasing. The EU committed €100 million of the total €150 million in assistance to the country in 2012, with the money being spent on existing education and health support schemes and for people who have been internally displaced as a result of the country's numerous ethnic conflicts. In 2013, commitments totaled €50 million covering longer-term support to trade and the private sector, ethnic peace, climate change as well as more support to civil society. EU aid to Myanmar is expected to increase by 20 percent in 2014. There is also an agreement in principle that the European Investment Bank (EIB) will extend its operations to Myanmar, with a focus on infrastructure projects including transport and energy, forestry and the opening of credit lines to selected local banks for on-lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.An important balancing act The EU’s focus on economics is important. Through trade and aid, Europe can help ease poverty in the country and play a vital role in helping the government to strike the right balance between rapid economic growth and sustainable and inclusive development.Encouragingly, Europe is also keeping up the pressure on human rights in both its bilateral contacts with Myanmar and in international fora such as the United Nations Human Rights Council. Acting on different fronts, EU funds are being used to help Myanmar’s political and economic transition through government capacity-building, support for the Myanmar Human Rights Commission and the Election Commission. EU support is also being channelled to the Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC), created by the government to secure peace in ethnic areas as well as to the peace process and the development of ethnic areas. In addition, ethnic groups have also received assistance to enable their participation in peace talks.As it deepens its engagement with Myanmar – and ASEAN – the EU should continue to balance its economic overtures to the country with continuing pressure on issues of human rights, good governance and the rule of law.Myanmar has come a long way in a very short time. Visionaries in the government and the region say there is no reason the country cannot fulfil its long-term ambition to become a regional powerhouse. To make the dream a reality, however, Myanmar will have to learn that economic growth and progress must be shared by all its people, human rights must be respected – and there must be a place in the country for all ethnic groups, whatever their religion.
Europe should focus on “Opportunity Africa” (Originally published 27/03/2014)
European and African leaders meeting in Brussels on April 2-3 must seal a new alliance for Africa’s socio-economic transformation. Africa and Europe are still important partners, with a relationship that has withstood the test of time. It’s time for a major rethink, however. “Opportunity Africa” must replace Europe’s still-jaundiced view of Africa as a problem.As the theme of the Africa-Europe summit underlines, Africa and Europe have to start Investing in People, Prosperity and Peace. Doing so requires a shift in mindsets away from government-focused policies to people-centred actions and from aid to trade, investments and business. It has long been said: the donor/recipient relationship needs to be replaced by an equal partnership. Rapidly-changing domestic, regional and global developments make such a relationship reboot even more imperative.To stay relevant in an era of volatile geo-politics, Africa-Europe relations will have to become more strategic, political and geared to tackling 21st Century challenges, including climate change, human trafficking and pandemics. For Europeans, it means jettisoning old stereotypes and fully embracing a new “Africa rising” narrative which reflects the continent’s changing realities. Access to Africa’s expanding markets and African raw materials will remain essential for European economic growth. But peace and stability in Africa are equally important for Europe’s prosperity.Africa too needs to revisit its views of Europe. Courted by an array of affluent and dynamic new aid partners, including China, Brazil and Turkey, Africa is no longer as reliant on European development assistance as in the past. It’s now European markets, know-how and technology as well as Europe’s experience in regional integration and preventive diplomacy which can help. Europe’s policies to tackle regional inequalities, build capacity and regulatory frameworks can also benefit African governments.Ascending AfricaAscending Africa is not merely a slogan. Across the continent, poverty levels are falling, incomes are rising and there have been improvements in education and health. African economies have flourished over the past decade, turning the region into a magnet for foreign investors. Regional growth is expected to rise to 6% this year from 5% in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), making Africa second only to developing Asia in pace of expansion. Inflation remains under control, having stabilised last year at 5.5%, compared with 47.4% 20 years ago.Despite short-term difficulties, internal dynamics which have boosted Africa's surge over the last decade are still in play, says AfDB President Donald Kaberuka. “The internal consumer power is still there, the booming urban populations are still there,” Kaberuka said recently, adding that information technology advances were still "leapfrogging" across the continent at a rapid pace, and more governments were managing their economies better.Celebrating Africa’s rise, however, does not mean ignoring its many challenges. Headline grabbing reports of high African growth rates, glittering cities and a thriving middle class tell only part of the story. To ensure a successful and sustained transformation of their economies, African countries must use the coming years to step up efforts to diversify their largely resource-based economies by investing in a modern and productive agriculture, building up a still-weak industrial base and encouraging entrepreneurship.Wanted: a transformational agendaWork on a new transformational agenda has started. “Agriculture should be an engine for industrialization on the continent,” African Union Commission Chairwoman Nkosazana Diamini-Zuma told a recent African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Better agriculture infrastructure and research to boost productivity and food security were important, she added. Progress on modernizing African farming is slow, however, with the ambitious Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) adopted by AU leaders in 2003 gaining only slow traction.There is a new focus on industrialization. Participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs), which allow developing countries to develop specific skills or products for participation in international production networks, is still low across the continent. As they develop new strategies to enable better access to global value chains, governments must also support private-sector development in manufacturing, encourage foreign investments and promote young entrepreneurs, especially by easing their access to finance and credit.Africa’s growing number of young people need jobs. With the population set to double from 1 billion to 2 billion over the next four decades, governments must ensure that the youth bulge – Africa has the youngest population in the world, with the number of Africans aged 15-24 set to double to 400 million by 2045 – is transformed into a true demographic dividend by providing employment and economic opportunities to young people. Failure to do so could lead to social unrest, political strife and a rise in extremism.Social inequalities remain a challenge. Tax Justice Network-Africa and Christian Aid warn that taxes in many African countries disadvantage the poor. Tax systems that could be used to redistribute wealth more fairly are being undermined by tax dodging and illicit finance flows facilitated by off-shore secrecy. Corruption has long been recognised as a major problem as has poor governance. Africa has a long way to go in building integrated regional markets and improving and building infrastructure, moves that will promote intra-African trade and investments.The establishment of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) is an important step forward in the continent’s long uphill struggle to establish peace and stability. The EU’s African Peace Facility is providing APSA with much-needed support but as the recent explosion of violence in the Central African Republic illustrates, ending strife in Africa still too often requires determined military intervention by AU and foreign troops.Africa-Europe: more important than ever The Africa-Europe summit can and should be an important milestone in changing the dynamics of a long-standing relationship. Africa and the EU have inter-acted since 1963 through the Yaounde Convention, the four Lome Conventions and the Cotonou Agreement signed in 2000 between the EU and the African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group. The first EU-Africa summit in 2000 put a stronger focus on Africa as a partner for Europe.The EU-Africa Strategic Partnership established in 2007 in Lisbon was expected to move the relationship to a new level, with both sides agreeing to pursue common interests and strategic objectives which went beyond the focus of traditional development policy and to forge a partnership of equals. However, the track record of the Joint Africa-EU Strategy (JAES) which stands at the core of the partnership, is mixed, with neither side fully satisfied with the overall results. Europe’s negotiation of trade-focused Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with African states – a process that started over ten years ago – puts additional strain on relations.Africa-Europe ties are an important element in the growing network of alliances and coalitions which are emerging to tackle regional and global challenges. As they grapple with climate change, immigration, extremism and the task of ensuring equitable, sustained and inclusive growth, Africa and Europe have more to gain from their partnership than ever before. In a changing world, Africa-Europe ties are still relevant - but need careful nurturing.
Exploring ideas on ASEM’s future (Originally published 03/06/13)
Ever since the first high-profile Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Bangkok in March 1996, Asian and European leaders, ministers and officials have been working on myriad fronts to forge a stronger region-to-region partnership on issues as diverse as green growth, global peace and prosperity, human rights, education and urbanisation.Their work may not always make the headlines. And the progress they make can appear slow, plodding and incremental. ASEM participants often complain that their work is not visible to the public, that ASEM does not punch its weight in the over-crowded field of global cooperation platforms and that 17 years after its launch amid much fanfare, ASEM is in need of a new lease of life.With the next ASEM summit set to be held in Brussels in autumn 2014, the race is on to try and inject fresh impetus into a process which all 51 ASEM partners agree is a compelling necessity – but one which must be deepened and made more dynamic to stay relevant in a rapidly-changing world.ASEM foreign ministers, who gather in New Delhi on November 11-12, are expected to come up with fresh ideas for reviving the Asia-Europe partnership.As illustrated at a recent symposium held in Yangzhou, China, the problem facing ASEM is not a lack of initiatives on revitalizing the relationship; rather, the challenge is to find common ground among the many suggestions being put forward by ASEM partners – and then to refine and streamline recommendations before presentation to ministers and leaders.Significantly, all 51 partners continue to underline the strategic significance of ASEM in the 21st Century. The fact that new countries continue to demand entry into the club – which began with 26 founding partners in 1996 – is seen as a mark of ASEM’s attractiveness and vigour.Over the years, ASEM has also served as a “new Silk Road” connecting the two continents and providing a unique platform for dialogue and cooperation, says an Asian official, adding: “Asia and Europe need each other…we are closely interconnected and interdependent and draw on each other’s’ strengths.”European policymakers say they are similarly confident that ASEM has great merits. “Its relevance has increased. ASEM is informal, comprehensive and still very attractive,” said one European official in Yangzhou.The challenge is to maintain ASEM’s unique informality, networking and flexibility but also make it more pragmatic, effective and result-oriented – and more relevant to partners’ economic and social priorities.ASEM should identify “more cooperation projects which are visible, tangible and serve the interests of people,” said an Asian official, adding: “ASEM should be a forum for action.”More frequent meetings of ASEM economic officials and ministers were mooted, with participants also suggesting that ASEM should be used to explore new ideas, to stimulate and facilitate progress in other fora and encourage capacity-building across sectors.The need for more ASEM contacts with civil society, including members of parliament, business representatives, scholars and journalists as well as local authorities, was underlined.The most difficult task facing policymakers is a much-awaited overhaul of ASEM’s working methods in order to make meetings – especially leaders’ summits held once every two years – more interesting, relevant and productive.Recapturing the excitement and energy evident at ASEM’s launch in 1996 will not be easy, however. Over the years, ASEM meetings have become more formal and ritualistic, with ministers and leaders reading out well-prepared statements instead of engaging in direct dialogue.Meetings of ASEM senior officials have also become long and drawn-out as participants talk more about procedures and dates than substantial questions. “These meeting are a bottleneck in ASEM” said one senior official in Yangzhou. “We have become a housekeeping body.”Instead of reviewing a series of global and regional developments, ASEM summits should have a more streamlined agenda, allowing leaders to engage in a real, in-depth and focused conversation on key concerns.Leaders and foreign ministers should also meet in a so-called “retreat” format to ensure more intensive and interactive dialogue. “We want them to really get to know each other, forge friendships and understanding,” said one participant.Chair’s statements and other documents issued at the end of ASEM meetings should be short, simple and to-the-point rather than long and procedural. They should be media-friendly and understandable to the general public, helping to enhance ASEM visibility.The long-running debate on whether or not ASEM needs a secretariat to provide institutional back-up was discussed. The drive to set up an ASEM Secretariat is essentially driven by Asian partners of ASEM who feel the need for such an institution on their side.Europeans, on the other hand, are generally satisfied with the current situation since the European External Action Service plays an important coordination role for European partners.As preparations intensify for the meeting of foreign ministers in Delhi, the conversation on strengthening ASEM is likely to gain pace. The aim is to prepare not only for the summit in Brussels in 2014 but for ASEM’s 20th anniversary celebrations in 2016.As participants in Yangzhou said, the upcoming anniversary should not only take stock of ASEM cooperation so far but also set it on a new and revitalised course for the future.
A roadmap for strengthened EU-ASEAN ties (Originally published 21/05/13)
Relations between the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are finally picking up much-needed momentum.Recent talks held in Ho Chi Minh City between EU and ASEAN senior officials appear to have made important headway in implementing a new agenda for cooperation, with both sides seeking ways to take the relationship to a higher and more strategic level.The switch from recrimination over issues like Myanmar and human rights to serious consultation on non-traditional security challenges and other questions is indeed welcome. It is time the EU took relations with ASEAN as seriously as other global players, including the United States.The progress made in Vietnam now needs to be followed up urgently by efforts to improve the structure of EU-ASEAN cooperation, inject more ambitious content and change the tone and style of the relationship.A changing relationshipMuch has changed in Europe and in Southeast Asia since the signature of the EU-ASEAN cooperation agreement in March 1980.The last 33 years have seen a massive change in the contour, ambitions and role of the European Union. ASEAN has also undergone deep transformation through the adoption of the ASEAN charter, expansion of the club to include new members and a renewed drive for strengthened economic integration.Both the EU and ASEAN have succeeded in bringing peace to their regions. Both have worked for economic prosperity and both have to deal with the challenge of big and difficult neighbours.Increasingly, both face a similar uphill task in ensuring their relevance, influence and importance in the 21st Century.ASEAN has to affirm its centrality in a rapidly changing region which includes an increasingly assertive China. It is also struggling to maintain its unity in the face of Beijing.Europe is still battling with the currency crisis, massive unemployment and has to adapt to living in a world where the power has shifted from the West to Asia. When it comes to China – or Russia - the EU is still struggling to speak with one voice.The EU-ASEAN relationship today is also very different from what it was all those years ago – reflecting the changes in both organisations.The challenge facing both sides is to take their relationship into the future – into the 21st Century. This can be done through changes in three key areas: E-ASEAN structures, content and tone:Structures: 2012 saw several significant improvements in EU-ASEAN relations: the EU acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, ASEAN’s core document for ensuring peace and stability in the region.A recent meeting of EU-ASEAN foreign ministers in Brunei pledged to further improve bilateral ties between the two regions by adopting a Plan of Action.Significantly also, Baroness Catherine Ashton, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, attended the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh in July after a much-remarked two-year absence.In addition, the EU decision to lift sanctions against Myanmar, giving a boost to relations with ASEAN.However, more needs to be done to further broaden, deepen and strengthen the current level of EU-ASEAN engagement. It is important that the momentum achieved in the last year is not lost.The EU and ASEAN need to recognise each other as strategic partners. It is quite surprising that this has not been done given the importance of the economic relationship and shared regional integration goals.This will necessarily mean the organization of regular summits between EU and ASEAN leaders – although these gatherings need not be annual. They could be held back-to-back with the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) which is organised every two years.The EU should appoint a special ambassador in Jakarta with sole responsibility for relations with ASEAN to ensure implementation of the ambitious Plan of Action on EU-ASEAN relations adopted last year in Brunei.The head of such an EU delegation would have the task of overseeing EU-ASEAN relations, establishing contacts with the ASEAN Committee of Permanent Representatives and other important ASEAN officials. This is already being done by the US, China and Japan which have appointed special ambassadors to deal with ASEAN. Australia is in the process of sending its own ASEAN envoy to Jakarta.If EU-ASEAN relations are to be brought to a “higher level” within the context of a global power shift to Asia-Pacific and regional security dynamics, the management of ASEAN-EU relations needs to be a full-time job.The conclusion of an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement would also boost the relationship. Although this is unlikely to be possible in the short-term, it should remain a medium-term goal for both sides.The EU has already concluded a free trade deal with Singapore and is negotiating with Thailand. These and others in the pipeline should become building blocks for a region-to-region accord once the ASEAN economic community takes more concrete form as of 2016.Increase ASEAN visibility ASEAN also needs to enhance its visibility in Europe. Very little is known about the organization, its ambitions and achievements in Europe. Public support for stronger EU-ASEAN ties can only be built up if there is wider media coverage and discussions in universities and in think tanks about the subject.Content:Trade and economic issues will remain the backbone of the relationship, with both sides also working on expanding their investment flows. Sharing best practice on regional integration also continues to be important in view of ASEAN’s enhanced regional ambitions and the need to build ASEAN capacity in an increased number of areas.The EU can provide lessons in building connectivity – especially as regards institutions and people, students, academics, scientists. Discussions on human rights – once a taboo question for ASEAN countries – are gaining momentum as attitudes change in ASEAN.EU special envoy for human rights Stavros Lambrinidis was recently in Jakarta for talks with the ASEAN Inter Governmental Human Rights Commission (AICHR), the first such encounter between the two sides.Lambrinidis also met with the ASEAN Committee of Permanent Representatives to ASEAN, as well as other ASEAN stakeholders, including regional civil society organisations.In a break with past practice of lecturing ASEAN on human rights deficiencies, the EU envoy underlined that the basis of EU-ASEAN cooperation would be based on "mutual inspiration”.Meanwhile, EU development cooperation and humanitarian aid programmes remain crucially important for the poorer ASEAN countries, including Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.The EU will never be a military power in the Asia-Pacific. But as ASEAN forges full speed ahead with constructing a region-wide security architecture, the EU needs to define how best it can contribute to regional peace in the Asia-Pacific.The focus should be on non-traditional security, confidence building measures and possibly joint exploitation of the resources in the South China Seas.Maritime security, disaster Resilience, conflict prevention and crisis management as well as peace-building are other subjects where the EU has know-how and experience as are challenges related to health, terrorism, cyber security, climate change and the environment.These moves – many of which are already being explored - would have the added advantage of helping beef up the case for EU membership of the East Asia Summit.Finally, the EU must move to ease travel restrictions in place for ASEAN citizens and encourage youth exchanges and the establishment of study centers in European and Asian universities that focus on the relationship between Asia-Pacific and Europe.Tone and Style:Relations between ASEAN and the European Union have too long been complicated by a narrative of competition – and a history of mistrust.ASEAN has never liked European “arrogance” in lecturing and hectoring them on their perceived deficits and weaknesses. But people in the region admire much that is European, including European technology, products and culture. To keep growing, both sides need each other’s markets and investments.Europeans should steer clear of any prescriptive approach to the way the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should evolve.ASEAN decision-making is slow, messy and the organisation is currently divided over how best to deal with China. But this is no different from intra-EU debates on the future of the Union and Europe’s own failure to speak with one voice on China.The EU cannot expect imitation, but – despite the current economic crisis - it can inspire and help ASEAN on its future trajectory.The EU and ASEAN have made a good start in reviewing their relationship and seeking fresh avenues for cooperation. The meeting in Vietnam appears to have been constructive and positive. The effort must be maintained in the months ahead so that both sides can work more closely together to tackle complex 21st Century challenges.
EU can help Pakistan’s new PM tackle tough agenda (Originally published 13/05/13)
As Pakistan’s next prime minister, Nawaz Sharif faces daunting domestic and foreign policy challenges.While attention is inevitably focused on Sharif’s relations with the United States, India and Afghanistan, the election of a new democratically elected government also opens up new avenues for stronger EU-Pakistan relations.The EU should move fast to forge stronger and more comprehensive ties with Islamabad, including the convening of a third EU-Pakistan summit to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.Landmark elections – but what happens next?The landmark elections, marking the first transfer of power between two elected civilian governments in Pakistan, give hope that 67 years after independence, democracy is finally taking root in the South Asian nation of 180 million people.The EU’s chief election observer, Michael Gahler, has noted “considerable improvements” in the conduct of the polls compared to five years ago as regards voters’ rolls, independence of the Election Commission and media freedom. Unlike in 2008, there were also no reports of widespread rigging or bogus polling stations.Although it’s long hide and seek with democracy may have ended for the moment, Pakistan remains a troubled and fragile state.Violence and bloodshed marred the election campaign and polling day in in many cities as the Taliban relentlessly pursued their anti-democracy agenda by targeting secular parties, sparing only former cricketer Imran Khan’s Tehreek-I-Insaf party.Pakistan’s economy is in shambles, with talks expected soon on an International Monetary Fund bail-out package. Corruption is rampant. The army and security services continue to exert an unhealthy influence over politics and policy. And relations with the US as well as most neighbouring countries, including India and Afghanistan, remain tense.Pakistani people deserve credit
Last week’s elections provided additional evidence of the resilience, determination and dynamism of millions of men and women who defied threats of violence, intimidation and centuries-old discrimination to cast their ballots in unprecedented numbers.No room for generalsMany millions of young Pakistanis voted for the first time. The turnout of women voters was impressive. An election commission spokesman said turnout had been around 60%, compared to 44 % in 2008.Sharif, an industrialist who has been prime minister twice before - his last period in office ending 14 years ago in a military coup followed by his trial and exile – has said generals have no place in politics. He has also said he will talk to the Taliban in order to end an insurgency which has raged across the country for the last few years.His dismissal as premier in the 1990s was greeted by relief by many Pakistanis but many are hoping that Sharif has learned lessons from his last time in power.Certainly, his party has a good record on economic management.He advocates free-market economics and is likely to pursue privatization and deregulation to revive flagging growth.Formidable tasks aheadThe tasks he faces are formidable. Public discontent over endemic corruption is rife; the economy is crippled by chronic power cuts and crumbling infrastructure. One of Sharif’s first likely tasks will be to negotiate with the IMF for a multi-billion-dollar bailout. To raise domestic revenues, he will have to bite the bullet and increase tax collection.Sharif’s government faces the challenge of putting tense relations with the US back on an even keel. He has vowed to review Pakistan's support for America's "war on terror" but is unlikely to jeopardise 2 billion dollars in annual US aid. Washington’s support will also be essential if Pakistan is to secure desperately needed aid from the IMF, the World Bank and other global institutions. He will also have to improve ties with Afghanistan and India.While in office the last time around, Sharif tried to make peace with India but his initiatives were opposed by the army. There is concern that plans for stronger India-Pakistan trade relations – something that Sharif favours – could once again be jeopardised by an uncompromising army.Pakistan will have a crucial role to play in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country in 2014.Relations with Pakistan's traditional ally, China will remain strong but Beijing is worried that militant Uighur Muslims are still receiving training in Pakistan.Hold another EU-Pakistan summitThe EU should lose no time in seeking an upgrade of ties with Pakistan’s new government. A third EU-Pakistan summit should be organised without too much delay and both sides should move quickly to hammer out a new agenda for deeper long-term relations.EU foreign ministers admitted earlier this year that the so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” with Pakistan needed to be reinvigorated through early meetings with the new Pakistani ministers and senior officials, saying progress in such fora could lead to a third EU-Pakistan summit.
It’s not just about tradeCertainly, Pakistan needs help to boost its exports to Europe and elsewhere. The EU has already given Pakistan improved market access by introducing autonomous trade preferences following a WTO waiver. The hope now is that Pakistan will secure access next year to the GSP Plus scheme for zero-duty, zero-quota exports to the EU.A strategic dialogue launched earlier this year between Catherine Ashton, EU foreign policy chief, and her former Pakistani colleague Hina Rabbani Khar seeks to cover cooperation in areas of trade, investment, human rights, governance, energy, education and socio economic development.The rhetoric needs to be translated into action. To change the dynamics of the so-far relatively lukewarm EU-Pakistan relationship, the EU will have to pay more sustained attention to Pakistan.Once on the periphery of the EU’s Asia policy, Pakistan is climbing slowly up the EU’s foreign policy agenda, mainly because of the strong link with security in Afghanistan, connections between tribal areas in Pakistan and Europe’s “home grown” terrorists and persistent US and British insistence that the EU should help stabilise the country.A long engagementThe adoption by EU foreign ministers last year of a so-called “5-Year Engagement Plan” aimed at boosting civilian institutions and civil society in Pakistan as well as a commitment to start a strategic dialogue with the country are recent illustrations of stronger EU interest in Pakistan.It has not always been an easy relationship, however. Pakistan has used most of its time and energy to lobby for better market access for its textile exports and bristled at EU comments on its treatment of women and minorities.Volatile politics in Pakistan have also meant the EU has had to constantly adjust and re-adjust its approaches depending on whether the army or civilians are in power.The EU does not have America’s clout in Pakistan. The absence of an EU role in providing military support has built up Europe’s credibility with Pakistani civil society but has also meant lack of leverage with the military.Meanwhile, strong EU-Pakistan economic ties – the EU is Pakistan's largest trading partner - have also not translated into significant political influence.The EU needs to be more innovative and creative in forging a new strategy which looks at Pakistan not merely as a developing country, requiring traditional development aid actions, but as a fragile country in transition which needs help and assistance to modernise and reform its flagging economy, reinforce weakened political institutions and to strengthen the rule of law.Work on supporting the strengthening of democratic institutions and the electoral framework with particular focus on institution building, legislative reform and voter participation will have to continue. Pakistan’s army and security services still need counter-terrorism training to tackle the insurgency and fight radicalisation.The EU and its member states are beginning to invest time and effort in crafting a multi-faceted strategy capable of responding to the multiple and complex challenges facing Pakistan.Such actions must continue and expand, with the EU also encouraging closer regional integration in South Asia. Pakistan will continue to need support from its friends to stay on the democratic path. Successful elections alone will not anchor democracy in Pakistan.
"Quality of life" demands attention of China’s new leaders (Originally published 12/03/13)
Quality of growth, not just numbersHowever, the next decade is going to be about the quality of growth, not just numbers. Responding to pressure from the public, China’s new leaders have vowed to fight corruption, narrow the urban-rural income divide, improve the lives of China’s “urban billion” and tackle environmental problems.They will also focus on meeting the aspirations of China’s growing middle class, which wants quality-of-life improvements such as a cleaner environment, higher food-safety standards, water security, and social protection."We should unwaveringly combat corruption, strengthen political integrity, establish institutions to end the excessive concentration of power and lack of checks on power and ensure that officials are honest, government is clean and political affairs are handled with integrity," said outgoing premier Wen Jiabao at his farewell speech to the National People’s Congress.Wen enumerated major domestic challenges that have caused public discontent in recent years - air pollution, toxic factories, tainted food and abuses of power - and pledged more resources to environmental protection and public welfare.His speech was a tacit admission that quality of life had been sidelined by a focus on breakneck economic growth. The question facing President Xi and Premier Li will be to ensure high rates of growth while also addressing environmental concerns.Clean governmentAs Qin Xiaoying of the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies (CFISS) wrote recently in China Daily, “while people struggled to get sufficient food and clothing during the Deng Xiaoping era…people today probably want rule of law and a democratic living space more ardently than people have at any time before in the country's history.”He adds that the people “want a clean government that is more self-disciplined and responsible, and more efficient in social administration. In addition, they wish for greater safety secured through legislation and law enforcement; greater happiness through completion of the social insurance system; greater dignity gained through the relentless punishment of corrupt officials and the promotion of equality and justice; and greater identity with the international community, established through rational broadening of governmental, nongovernmental, economic, trade, military and diplomatic channels.”In order to deliver on these and other public demands, China’s leaders must try and rebalance the economy by shifting from exports and labour-intensive manufacturing to growth based on domestic demand and innovation.Middle Income TrapThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned that China risks being caught in the middle-income trap, an economic situation where a developing country attains a certain income but remains stuck at that level, usually because of rising wages and falling cost competitiveness.The ADB advises investing in technology, promoting innovation by the private sector and loosening the state’s control over the financial sector. In addition, it says, China should expand its service sector, speed up urbanisation, and try to reduce income inequality so that ordinary people benefit more from economic growth.Clearly while China used to focus on constructing factories, roads and bridges; it must now devote as much time, money and attention on improving its education system and encouraging innovation.Urbanisation is a key driver of China’s modernisation – and is also expected to spur growth. More than 50% of China’s total population now lives in cities, compared to less than 20% in 1980.The urban economy will continue to be a “huge engine” of China’s economic growth, spurring domestic consumption and generating over 90% of China’s GDP by 2025, says Li Keqiang who is known as a “champion” of urbanisation.“Urban billion”“Urbanisation is not about simply increasing the number of urban residents or expanding the area of cities,” Li said in a recent article in People’s Daily. “More importantly, it’s about a complete change from rural to urban style in terms of industry structure, employment, living environment and social security.”However, China’s “urban billion” pose a number of urgent challenges to the new leaders who must take action to integrate migrant workers into urban life, ensure sufficient public funding for social services, work for a pollution-free environment and improve water and waste management. Regulation of the real estate sector is also urgently needed.A key – and divisive - challenge facing the new leaders is to give rural migrants and their families the same opportunities in cities as other urban inhabitants. Changes in the Hukou system under which rural migrants have limited access to local social services enjoyed by urban residents will not come easy. The new leaders have, however, suggested the introduction of a system of national resident permits.Seeking to counter public anger over corruption, Xi Jinping has declared a ban on official extravagance and banished some of the usual pomp from this year's gathering of the National People's Congress.It will be much tougher, however, to pass laws forcing government officials and their family members to declare their assets and financial activities. Action is needed however: The lavish lifestyles of some officials - who often drive luxury cars, own multiple villas and send their children to elite foreign universities – are much hated by the public and have become a source of strong public discontent.Ageing before becoming richAs a result of advances in healthcare and nutrition, combined with the one child policy and very low fertility rates, China is one of a small number of countries in which the population has aged before it has become rich. An estimated 14% of the Chinese population is aged 60 or above and the country is expected to count some 400 million people (or about one-third of the population) over 60 year by 2050.Foreign policy poses another headache: China's new leaders will have to contend with an increasingly fraught relationship with the US and their Asian neighbours. The recent announcement of a 10.7% increase in defence budget to 115.7 billion dollars has increased regional concerns about Beijing’s military spending, especially in view of tensions in the East and South China Seas.Beijing is also under pressure to take on “international responsibilities” by joining the Western consensus on tougher action against North Korea, Iran and Syria.Both the new president and premier are experienced party officials who can be expected to navigate the sometimes-choppy waters ahead with skill and creativity. Given the scale of the tasks ahead, China's new leaders will also have to be especially nimble and fleet-footed to adapt to emergencies relating to public discontent on quality of life issues, including the environment.
Democracy in Pakistan: Tough Lessons (Originally published 22/01/13)
There are two views on recent events in Pakistan. For some, Pakistan has shown its true colours as a chaotic and disorderly failed state. There were border skirmishes with India, more deadly extremist sectarian violence in an already deeply troubled province, rumours of a “soft” military coup as an unknown “Sufi cleric” and his followers demanded an end to corruption and —not to forget — another judicial demand that the prime minister be arrested on charges of graft.For others — admittedly in a minority — these and other equally strange developments were signs of a “maturing” and thriving democracy, of a people waking up to their rights as citizens and a vivid illustration of the strong independence of the judiciary.Finally a “people’s revolution”, Pakistan’s version of Egypt’s “Tahrir Square” in the streets of Islamabad, exulted some commentators. Hush, it’s another army conspiracy to derail democracy, said others.Both narratives have been expounded with equal force. They leave observers hungry for more information and less glib explanations, more facts and less fiction. However, now that the turmoil of the last few days appears to be over — at least temporarily — it’s wise to reflect on lessons learned.First, the rapid sequence of tragedy in Balochistan and farce in Islamabad hasn’t helped Pakistan’s already battered reputation.This is not just important for reasons of PR but also because Pakistan desperately needs foreign investment. No one is going to put money in a country seen to be always a mere heartbeat away from a suicide bombing, a terrorist attack or a deadly explosion.Le Monde, the influential and much-respected French newspaper, recently described Pakistan as “the sick child of South Asia,” noting in a scathing article that “there is something desperate about Pakistan”. As soon as the country shows signs of improvement, things go badly wrong, the article underlined, adding: “frankly we would love to be able to give some positive news about Pakistan … but the task is impossible.”Le Monde is not alone. Despite admirable attempts by Pakistani diplomats and others to put a positive gloss on recent developments in the country, it really is not easy to be upbeat about Pakistan.Secondly, yes, it is certainly good news that the current democratically elected civilian government looks set to complete a full five-year term. But 66 years after independence, should that be a reason for serious reflection or a cause for celebration?Third, can democracy really be reduced to the organisation and winning of elections? Yes, true, free and fair polls are crucial but shouldn’t the focus also be on what happens after the ballots are counted and the new — or old — leaders speed off in their limousines and move into their luxury houses?There is no doubt that citizens want to vote. But after the elections, they also expect good governance. They want a government that can deliver food, water and electricity. They want a roof over their heads. They want access to proper schools and hospitals and they want to work.Pakistan’s beleaguered politicians have failed the governance exams for decades and the generals who swagger in periodically have not done much better. It is important to fight corruption but equally crucial to insist on good governance and the delivery of basic services.Fourth, justice and politics do not mix. It’s heartening to see that Pakistan’s top judge has emerged as a modern-day Robin Hood. But the public probably wants justice in Pakistan to be about more than the issuing of regular arrest warrants to serving prime ministers.Fifth, the tragedy in Balochistan provides more damning proof that Pakistan must get its priorities right: the real danger comes from extremist groups which regularly foment sectarian violence and have very effectively used terrorism to destabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan. A government must provide protection for all religious groups on its territory. The inability to stop attacks on Shias, Ahmadis, Christians, Hindus — and women — represents an unacceptable failure of governance.Six, it makes no sense to start another vicious circle of Pakistan-India tensions over Kashmir or any other piece of land. Both countries have too much at stake to engage in another round of accusations and counter-accusations. The corrosive language of confrontation must be replaced by cooperation.This is important not just for Pakistan and India but also for South Asia as a whole. The region lags behind in meeting most of the anti-poverty Millennium Development Goals, its children are undernourished, women discriminated against and disease and illiteracy are rampant.Trade within the region is a mere fraction of what it should be. As Southeast Asia has illustrated, the future belongs to countries that can stop fighting and start cooperating to meet region-wide challenges. The 21st century is about building effective regional blocs, not sustaining regional animosities.Finally, as shown by the flurry of tragedies, dramas and mini dramas over the last week, the run-up to the elections is going to be a tumultuous time. There will probably be further storms in more teacups, more violence and all kinds of evil attempts to derail democracy in Pakistan.Seen from the outside, Pakistan does seem to be trapped in an unfortunate cycle of mishaps, misplaced hopes and unhappy accidents. There is general consensus that the country’s resilient, hard-working and long-suffering people deserve better than what they have ever received from soldiers or politicians. For many, the only true and uplifting narrative about Pakistan is one that speaks of the strength and fortitude of its people.
EU-China relations after the leadership change (Originally published 16/11/12)
EU leaders bade a fond farewell to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the EU-China summit in Brussels on September 20. The outgoing Chinese leader, who invested much time and effort in building strong ties with Europe, certainly deserved the effusive send-off. Will China’s new leaders be equally keen on the EU?The good news is that Wen’s successor Li Keqiang is no stranger to Europe. In meetings and speeches during a tour of European capitals in May this year, Li repeatedly underlined his interest in Europe as “a strategic partner that deserves our confidence”.“China firmly supports Europe both in words and in deeds in its efforts to overcome the current crisis,” Li wrote in an article in the Financial Times newspaper. “When “designed in Europe” is combined with “made in China” and when European technologies are applied to the Chinese market, there will be amazing results,” Li insisted.The words may be encouraging but for China’s new leaders, building stronger relations with Europe may have to wait. Domestic priorities will dominate the immediate agenda of both Li and Xi Jinping who replaces President Hu Jintao.China today is the second largest economy in the world. Over the last three decades, China’s rise, its success in delivering growth and development to millions of poor people and its increased confidence in global affairs has mesmerised a watching world.The future is more uncertain, however. Given the immense challenges facing them, China’s new leaders arelikely to spend their time, energy and money on addressing internalchallenges and meeting public expectations.Questions likely to dominate their agenda include meeting the aspirations of China’s growing middle class, responding to public pressure as regards quality-of-life improvements such as a cleaner environment, higher food-safety standards, water security, and social protection. China will need outside help is in meeting the diverse demands of the country’s “urban billion”.China also faces the problems of rising inequality between the rich and poor, corruption at all levels of society and anger over a lack of services like health care.To meet the aspirations of its people – and especially its growing middle class – China needs continued growth. The World Bank says without change, annual growth could sink to 5 percent by 2015 — dangerously low by Chinese standards. China's economy grew at a 7.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter—the slowest since the first quarter of 2009.The world will be watching carefully to see how committed the new leaders are to rebalancing China’s economy so that there is a much-needed shift from exports and labour-intensive manufacturing to growth based on domestic demand and innovation.However, China's new leadership will also have to contend with an increasingly fraught relationship with the US and its Asian neighbours.The Obama Administration has been bringing more cases against China through the WTO, charging China with unfair trade practices.In Asia, there's a growing level of concern about China's rise and its increased assertiveness in defending territorial claims in the South and East China Seas.In comparison, relations with Europe are much less problematic. Trade and investment ties are growing. As both the Eurozone and the Chinese economies slow down, both sides are more aware than ever of their economic interdependence.China looks to the EU for markets, investments and technology. Chinese companies are also increasingly eying the Europe as an investment destination.Chinese annual FDI flows to Europe tripled from €2.3 billion in 2009 and 2010 to almost €7.4 billion in 2011. However, the absolute FDI values remain very small compared to Europe’s total inward FDI and to China’s total outward FDI stock.During his visit to Europe, Li pointed out that China has aided the Eurozone economies over the past two years by importing more goods, investing and buying bonds.Launching an EU-China urbanisation partnership, Li underlined that urbanisation had the most potential to expand China's domestic consumption, a major goal of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015).Discussions on energy were also started, illustrating both sides’ readiness to start working together on practical questions.The challenge for both sides is to make this new, positive trend in relations sustainable. EU-China ties are not always easy. Long-standing irritants include the EU’s resistance to ending an arms embargo against Beijing and failure to give the country market-economy status.Europe meanwhile wants better access to China’s markets, improved protection of intellectual property rights and an end to investment barriers.The launch by the EU of an investigation into alleged state subsidies for Chinese solar panel manufacturers risks intensifying the conflict over the multi-billion dollar solar power equipment market that is straining trade ties.The EU Commission is already investigating allegations of Chinese manufacturers "dumping" solar panels in overseas markets. This follows a US decision to impose duties on Chinese solar power products.The Chinese government meanwhile has lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organisation accusingItaly and Greece of illegally favouring domestic solar panel producers in promoting new solar power installations and warning it could put tariffs on EU exports of the raw material polysilicon.Such trade friction does not necessarily have to sour the overall EU-China relationship provided both sides can reinforce their ties in other areas of common interest and concern.In addition to the urbanisation partnership, China and Europe face common challenges in sectors such as environment, food, water and energy security and promoting economic growth.Like the rest of the world, however, Europe will also be watching to see if a country that has helped millions to climb out of poverty is now ready to open the doors to political reform and transformation.
Cool heads needed as EU launches China solar panel probe (Originally published 07/09/12)
The European Commission’s decision on September 6 to start investigating suspected dumping of Chinese-made solar panels has sparked fears of a damaging Brussels-Beijing trade war. It should not: the EU-China relationship is much too important to be jeopardized by anti-dumping inquiries which – however sensational – represent a minor percentage of EU-China trade.The solar panel case has been on the EU drawing board for several months, prompting repeated warnings from China that any EU action would hurt the global clean energy sector and lead to damaging tit-for-tat measures.The group of European solar companies, led by Germany's SolarWorld, and including Italian and other European firms, says Chinese solar firms have been selling panels below market value in Europe. Chinese producers in the firing line include Yingli Green Energy, Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, Trina Solar Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc.The inquiry is not unexpected. Under EU law, the Commission is bound to open an anti-dumping inquiry if the complaint satisfies certain basic requirements. Officials say this is the case.The timing of the investigation is unfortunate, however: it comes just days before the EU and China hold summit talks in Brussels. The meeting on September 20 will be the last formal encounter between Premier Wen Jiabao – who has invested much time and effort in developing China’s EU connection - and senior EU policymakers before he hands over the baton to his successor (widely expected to be Vice Premier Li Keqiang).The EU action follows close on the heels of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s much-publicised visit to Beijing last week. Ms Merkel has said she wants the dispute over solar panels to be resolved through dialogue, not an anti-dumping investigation. She has also sought to reassure her worried Chinese hosts on the “absolute political will” of Eurozone countries to stabilize their currency.Merkel’s visit coincided with a Chinese announcement that it was purchasing 50 Airbus planes worth over $4 billion, the first significant order since a dispute between Beijing and Europe over emissions trading.Wen’s farewell meeting with the EU should certainly not be soured by the anti-dumping case. There should be no repeat of the acrimony generated at the EU-China summit in 2010 over EU criticism of China’s currency policy.Both sides have mended fences over the last two years. Discussions continue over human rights, market access and investments. But the Eurozone crisis and China’s increased economic clout has led to a change in the EU’s view of China. As such, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy are likely to focus on the many areas where the EU and China have succeeded in building a stronger partnership rather than on trade and other irritants.There are initial encouraging signs that Beijing is toning down its earlier rhetoric. In contrast to earlier statements, China's immediate response to the anti-dumping inquiry been measured, with no mention of any retaliatory steps.“China expresses deep regret” about the decision, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said in a statement on the ministry's website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).“Restricting China's solar panel products will not only hurt the interests of both Chinese and European industry, it will also wreck the healthy development of the global solar and clean energy sector,”said Shen.He urged the EU to “seriously consider China's position and proposals, and to resolve friction over solar panel trade through consultations and cooperation”.China sold about 21 billion euros in solar panels and components to the EU in 2011 - about 60 percent of all Chinese exports of the product.Total EU imports from China were valued at 292 billion euros last year. Imports of Chinese products subject to trade defense duties total less than one percent of that amount. The US also imposed duties on solar panel imports from China in May after a similar initiative led by SolarWorld there.Europe’s solar companies are divided over the dumping case. Some such as those that install panels say Europe should welcome Chinese imports because they make solar power more affordable and are essential for the 27-member bloc to achieve its goal of having 20 percent of energy from renewables by 2020. EU companies that have sold machinery to China to produce photovoltaic cells have also expressed misgivings.EU governments are unlikely to see eye to eye on the investigation. Berlin is wary of annoying a country with which it has forged a trade-based “special relationship” and which remains an important ally in efforts to stabilize the Eurozone.Others may also hesitate. The EU-China relationship has been gaining momentum in recent months. At their last summit in Beijing in February, the EU and China launched a high level people-to-people dialogue on a par with their discussions on strategic issues and on economic questions.An urbanization partnership is now in full swing with mayors’ from Europe and China set to meet in Brussels on September 19 for two days of discussions.In addition, EU and Chinese business leaders will meet for their own summit on September 20 to discuss investments and innovation.The upcoming EU-China summit is not expected to result in any headline-grabbing new initiatives but practical new cooperation tracks will emerge. Leaders are expected to launch discussions on water security, a rural development partnership and talk about cyber security.The focus on practical engagement and cooperation in areas of mutual interest should define the EU-China relationship in the coming years. China and Europe are increasingly interdependent, a fact that Merkel understands and underlines.As such, instead of fearing Germany’s determination to build ever-stronger relations with China, Berlin’s partners should encourage such moves. The German-China “special relationship” adds to the EU’s clout and influence when talking to Beijing.Talk of competition between the EU and Germany in dealing with China should be jettisoned. Instead, the EU should take a leaf from Berlin’s book of practical diplomacy and engagement with Beijing. What’s good for German-Chinese relations will boost, not undermine, EU-China relations.
A new agenda for Afghanistan's development (Originally published 04/07/12)
As international donors prepare to meet in Tokyo on 8 July to discuss Afghanistan’s economic future, the focus should be on more than making new aid commitments. Donors should craft a longer-term agenda for good governance to tackle the country’s immediate problems and prepare for the 2014 drawdown of foreign troops.To ensure development and stability in the country, the Afghan government and the international community should:
- Strike the right balance between support for the army and building strong civilian institutions
- Focus on sustainable growth and development in addition to security
- Reduce aid dependency progressively and attract job-creating investments
- Combat corruption and empower civil society
- Resist creeping erosion of achievements in women’s rights
- Engage in capacity-building for journalists, encourage new media
The good news is that with the right economic leadership, Afghanistan could grow at a respectable 5% in the coming years. The bad news is that corruption and graft continue to plague the country, endangering prospects for building a stable and prosperous Afghanistan.Afghan President Hamid Karzai is hoping the conference in Tokyo will agree to aid pledges worth $4bn a year. Having already poured billions of dollars into the country – and given the current global economic slowdown – donors are understandably wary of making new commitments.Donors should make sure Afghanistan has access to sustained financial support in the coming years – but they should also link such assistance more firmly to improved the governance.The economic outlook for Afghanistan is more upbeat than many believe. The coming decade offers "high hopes, expectations, and great opportunities", according to World Bank Country Director Bob Saum.The country is believed to have mineral reserves worth as much as $3tn, which could theoretically generate billions of dollars in tax revenue. More can also be done to tap into Afghanistan’s agricultural potential.Major strides have been made in schooling children and improving health for mothers and children but three-quarters of Afghans are illiterate and the average person earns only about $530 a year, according to the World Bank.In addition, the situation of Afghan women remains precarious. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton among others has said she is “deeply troubled” by recent developments in the country, including the Afghan Justice Minister Habibullah Ghalib's suggestion that women's shelters were home to “immorality and prostitution”.“His comments set back efforts to fight violence against women in Afghanistan, including the need to provide victims with safe places to take shelter," Ashton said in a recent statement. “Too many Afghan women have experienced violence, gender-based and sexual, often on a repeated basis,” she said, adding: “Women forced to resort to shelters are amongst the bravest Afghans we know.”The Afghan government has asked donors to channel more aid funds through the national budget rather than through contractors or aid groups. Donors are also being asked to better tailor aid to the government's priorities including health, education, agriculture and the mining sector.Donors’ response should, however, hinge on efforts to combat waste, fraud and corruption. They should also demand that Afghan promises are followed up by real action.
Promoting the private sector’s role in development (Originally published 04/11/11)
Official Development Assistance (ODA) from rich industrialised countries to poorer developing nations was once considered pivotal in achieving growth and development. Official north-south financial flows remain a vital factor in the combat against poverty. In the 21st Century, however, the global architecture of development cooperation is changing rapidly.The ranks of official donors now include newly industrialised countries like South Korea and emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil. Significantly also, development cooperation is no longer the exclusive preserve of governments. Private actors have emerged as key aid donors, with private aid – including aid provided by foundations, corporations, non-governmental organisations, and individuals – increasing rapidly over the past decade.In addition to bringing additional capital, these new actors are also injecting fresh know how and innovative ideas into development cooperation. Official and private aid can complement each other and it is increasingly important that official and private donors work together to promote development.The emergence of private actors as a leading source of development assistance is good news. With many Western governments implementing austerity measures, significant cutbacks expected in ODA – making it ever more difficult to meet the United Nations’ 0.7 percent of GDP as aid target - and public opinion in industrialised states grappling with “donor fatigue”, the mobilisation of private sector funds for fighting poverty is significant.The focus on non-state actors has coincided with the emergence of new global challenges such as combating climate change, averting global health pandemics and securing international peace.Taking on these and other tasks requires innovative responses and expertise which can be provided by the private sector. Recognising the added value of private donors, national governments and international development agencies (IDAs) have started to work closely with the private sector to mobilise investments for sectors such as healthcare, water and sanitation, agriculture, and financial services, including microcredit and micro-insurance.Private actors bring in a new dynamic, new money, new approaches and new solutions to key challenges facing developing nations. But private development assistance (PDA) is no panacea – and certainly no substitute for ODA. In fact, private assistance may - in some cases – even undermine the effectiveness and efficiency of the development landscape, thereby impacting negatively on the sustainable development of poor countries.The Development Aid Committee of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation for Development (DAC) is seeking to remedy this by ensuring that the private sector is involved in the debate on development effectiveness.Clearly, given the array of challenges facing donors and developing nations, it is essential that private and public actors in development cooperation work with each other to ensure that assistance is used most efficiently and effectively.Development cooperation actors need to undertake a thorough review of their experiences to date on public-private cooperation to chart a course for the future. They should take a closer look at the potential for synergies and conflicts of interest and evaluate past successes to understand just what works and what does not. This is essential if successful cooperation projects are to be up scaled and replicated.The focus should also be on more information and research, evaluation and transparency to ensure that PDA is subjected to the same rigorous conditions as ODA currently is. Private development assistance actors must find a way to make their efforts sustainable and must ensure the involvement of local actors in the planning and delivery of their assistance.
In keeping with the increased role of the private sector, the debate on aid effectiveness should be enlarged to include “development effectiveness”. Common principles also need to be agreed to promote greater cooperation between the public and private sectors, with the objective of increasing the understanding of the respective contributions towards common development objectives, building on existing initiatives.In partnering with governments and international agencies, private and public donors should agree on common development outcomes and engage with each other in transparent and inclusive dialogues on their priorities.The “revolution” that non-state actors have triggered in international development cooperation, through their individual actions and through coalitions and alliances with other private donors as well as with official aid agencies, is significant. The current aid revolution should therefore be welcomed – but also closely monitored.
Time for Asia-Europe cooperation on food security (Originally published 06/05/11)
Asian and European policymakers meet in Chiang Mai, Thailand, next week for talks on food security amid fears that currently volatile food prices could trigger a new “food price shock” similar to the food crisis in 2006-2008.Rising food prices are spurring inflation and unease in Europe - but Asia is especially vulnerable. The region’s poor families spend over 60 per cent of their income on food compared to 10 per cent spent in developed nations. The rising cost of food is hurting Asia’s rural poor and urban middle classes.The Asian Development Bank has warned that a sustained 10 per cent rise in domestic food prices in developing Asia, home to 3.3 billion people, could push an additional 64 million people into extreme poverty. Recent gains in poverty reduction made in Asia could be seriously undermined.The statement echoed similar warnings made earlier in the year by World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick that “more people could become poor because of high and volatile prices.”The meeting in Chiang Mai on May 9 and 10 provides an opportunity for enhanced Asia-Europe cooperation to help defuse current uncertainties and improve global food security.Using the platform provided by ASEM, Asian and European countries can share experiences, exchange best practice and undertake joint initiatives to tackle the array of factors responsible for the rising cost of food.There is no dearth of issues to discuss. The 48 ASEM partners, including food producers, exporters and importers, must work together to improve farmers’ livelihoods, ensure sustainable agricultural and food production, encourage “responsible” agricultural investment and strengthen agricultural research.Sharing agricultural innovations and promoting technology transfers are important. Countries must work together to provide for food security arrangements in case of emergencies and share information on food security.ASEM members need a frank discussion on the many factors responsible for the current situation. Bad weather, including floods in Australia and Pakistan and increasing oil prices (immediately affecting the price of fertiliser) – worsened to some extent by the political turmoil in the Middle East – are clearly contributing to the problem.Countries’ efforts to reduce their dependence on oil by producing crops for fuel rather than food, can also impact on prices. Increases in population and added demand for more food by the world’s rapidly growing emerging countries – many of which are Asian – have further contributed to the pressure on food prices. An increase in the cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers and speculation in the futures market is aggravating the situation.To come to grips with the problem, governments need to focus attention on strengthening entire food systems from farm production, processing, retail and distribution to consumption. There must be increased emphasis on agricultural research which can increase crop yields.It is a daunting task requiring national initiatives but also collective action. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has agreed, through the ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework, to establish an emergency regional rice reserve system.The European Union is also well-placed to provide its experience and expertise to Asian countries. Once criticised for its system of costly farm subsidies and high farm tariffs, the EU has revamped its common agricultural policy and thanks to efficient and modern farming techniques, remains a leading exporter and importer of food products.The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, spends about 600 million euros a year on food security projects and programmes in developing countries.An EU food facility worth one billion euros is under implementation as a rapid response to the 2008 food crisis in developing countries. Most of the projects are expected to be completed by end-2011.With experts warning that if food and fuel prices continue to surge, economic growth in the Asian region could be reduced by up to 1.5% this year, the stakes are high for ASEM. In an inter-dependent world, changes in Asia’s growth prospects will have a strong impact on European economies.As a paper prepared for the ASEM meeting in Chiang Mai underlines, “Food security has become a serious challenge for our communities.” As such, it requires joint Asia-Europe action.
Aid coordination key to fighting poverty (Originally published 04/04/11)
With aid budgets under pressure in most donor nations, the focus has rightly moved to improving the quality and effectiveness of international assistance, encouraging private/public partnerships, making national and international policies more coherent and helping developing nations to improve tax collection regimes.Stronger coordination, rather than aid competition, among key aid donors to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is also crucial. Closer donor dialogue and discussion on combating poverty is set to become even more urgent in view of the need for increased aid to crisis-hit North Africa and demands for more financial help from other developing countries, including many in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, facing escalating food and fuel prices.These new challenges, including those triggered by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and tsunamis, add to the old ones.Progress so far in achieving key MDGs remains patchy, with the United Nations pointing to huge disparities across and within countries. Sub-Saharan Africa is still struggling with continuing food insecurity, a rise in extreme poverty, stunningly high child and maternal mortality, and large numbers of people living in slums. Although Asia is the region with the fastest progress, hundreds of millions of people in the region also remain in extreme poverty.The MDGs cover targets for the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, universal primary education, gender equality, reduced child mortality, improved maternal health, lower HIV/Aids and malaria infection and more environmental sustainability. Set at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000, they are expected to be met by 2015. However, with “aid fatigue” on the rise in many Western nations, prospects for meeting the deadline appear slim.Policymakers in the European Union and the United States are struggling to make a stronger political argument for continuing – and if possible increasing – development assistance. It is proving to be an uphill struggle, however.European countries have "no right to fail" in their commitments to poorer nations, the European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid Andris Piebalgs said recently, underlining that EU countries must meet the target of spending 0.7 per cent of GNP on development aid despite the global economic turndown. "If you don't do this, it is not just the projects that it will fail. If there is no trust, there is no success. If you promise you should deliver," he said in The Irish Times.The US Administration, also seeking to step up engagement in Asia, the Pacific, Africa, Central Asia and Latin America, has said that development assistance is “as central to advancing America's interests as diplomacy and defense.”Both the US and the EU argue that investments in global health and education are investments in global peace, stability and security and have warned that the financial and economic crisis has pushed even more people into extreme poverty.At the EU-US summit in Lisbon in November 2009, both sides – representing nearly 80 per cent of global official development assistance - also agreed to intensify their development policy dialogue and increase cooperation in practical ways to achieve results, especially as regards food security, climate change and achieving the MDGs.Such cooperation is good news at a time of rising demands for assistance and increasing pressure on Western treasuries to rein back spending. International aid programmes have been trammelled for too long by competition and lack of coordination among donors. EU-US cooperation in the sector could set a good example for others.