Time to move ‘beyond trade’ in EU-India relations

INDIAN Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Brussels for the EU-India summit on March 30 is good news.

The EU and India have much to discuss. There are hopes that Modi will use the long-delayed meeting — India and the EU have not met for summit level talks for four years — to open a new, more dynamic and more adventurous chapter in EU-India relations.

As John Lennon sang to Yoko Ono so many moons ago, almost 12 years after the EU and India vowed to become strategic partners — but then allowed their relationship to stumble and falter — it’s just like starting over.

Or at least it could be. If they are to reboot ties, India and the EU need a new conversation, a new focus on shared interests as well as new goals and ambitions.

Above all, they need to take a fresh look at each other, replacing tired misperceptions and clichés with a different, more up-to-date outlook.

India, with a growth rate of 7.5 per cent according to the World Bank, now has a more dynamic economy than China. The EU for all its current malaise has an interest in exporting and investment more in India and has the technology India needs for its modernisation drive.

As an increasingly influential regional and global power, India needs to have a more serious conversation with the EU on refugees, peace and security in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Terrorism and threat from the militant Islamic State group are also issues of common concern.

Opening a new chapter means moving to a “beyond trade” agenda. Realistically, however, the summit’s focus will inevitably be on the Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) or free trade agreement that Brussels and Delhi have been negotiating since 2007 with little success.

Negotiations on the deal stalled over a plethora of issues in 2013. If some of the key blockages can be removed in time by trade officials, the March 30 summit could mark the re-launch of the BTIA negotiations.

Such a scenario is certainly desirable. Trade and business are the glue that bind Europe to India and to other Asian states. Increased trade and investment flows will generate growth and jobs in both Europe and India. And resolving the trade stalemate will inject fresh momentum into the overall EU-India relationship.

But Brussels and Delhi need to be more ambitious. As illustrated by Modi’s high-profile visits to Britain, France and Germany, India has so far favoured its bilateral ties with national European governments over contacts with the EU. Meanwhile, Europe has spent more time and energy on building a strategy for China than on constructing a stronger relationship with India.

India’s new economic programme opens up fresh avenues for increased EU-India synergies which go beyond the two sides’ traditional interaction. This could include cooperation in areas where both sides have a strong economic interest such as infrastructure investments, sustainable urbanisation, renewable energy, innovation and synergies between “Digital India” and the EU’s agenda for a Digital Single Market.

The focus should now be on hammering out a more practical, pragmatic and operational agenda which seeks to find as much common ground as possible between Modi’s aspirational programmes and the EU’s initiatives to boost growth and jobs.

The EU is well-placed to share its experience in building a single market, economic reform and modernisation, cutting back over-regulation and improving the business environment.

A new EU-India action plan should be short, snappy and action-oriented, rather than the long “wish list” which the EU traditionally draws up with and for its partners.

Still, trade matters and it is important that the BTIA negotiations are re-opened and a deal is finally done.

The talks are like an obstacle race, however, with new problems emerging at every twist and turn. The latest bone of contention is over EU demands that India substantially bring down the “high” duties on automobiles as a pre-condition for resumption of the FTA negotiations. India’s import duty on cars range from 60-120pc as against the EU’s 10pc.

But the industry body for automobiles — Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) — has asked the commerce ministry not to “buckle under pressure” from the EU, adding that this could ultimately hurt the government’s ‘Make In India’ initiative.

India is unhappy about restrictions on temporary movement of skilled professionals to the EU, especially the recent move by the United Kingdom to hike visa fees for skilled professionals as well as increase minimum salary threshold for intra-company transfers. India is also seeking data security status which it says is crucial for India’s IT sector to do more business with EU firms.

The EU, meanwhile, also wants lower Indian duties on wines and spirits and dairy products and a strong intellectual property regime. The value of EU-India trade grew from 28.6 billion euros in 2003 to 72.5bn euros in 2014 while EU investment stock in India was 34.7bn euros in 2013 and trade in commercial services quadrupled in the past decade, increasing from 5.2bn euros in 2002 to 23.7bn euros in 2013.

While such horse-trading is important and Modi and his EU counterparts must give the trade negotiations a much-needed push, the success of the summit will also hinge on a political agreement between Delhi and Brussels to start over.

View from abroad: It’s official: the EU is in a mess (Originally published 12/09/2015 at Dawn.com)

The 28-member bloc is in disarray, beset by crises, member governments are squabbling, people are angry and disenchanted, leaders are mostly querulous and hesitant — and sometimes outrageously odious.This isn’t just the opinion of just any EU watcher or EU insider; it’s the point of view of Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body.“The European Union is not in a good state,” Juncker told the European Parliament in his first-ever “State of Europe” address this week. “There is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough union in this Union.”Unusually for a politician, Juncker did not mince his words during his hour-long speech to the 700 plus EU parliamentarians. It was time, he said for honesty.And he was certainly honest, refreshingly so. In fact, frighteningly so. Like most people, I’ve become used to untruthful politicians, men and women to whom lying comes naturally, automatically.This is especially true for anyone in an official position who is asked to comment on his/her country’s political future, economic prospects or social challenges.Market turmoil, economy in danger? China’s leaders don’t seem to think so. At a conference in Dalian last week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was adamant that Chinese markets were stable and potential systemic financial risks have been forestalled. Recent troubles were just due to “rumour mongers” and other nasties.India, meanwhile, is talking up its shining economic future and readiness to overtake China despite evidence that the economy is in desperate need of reform and growth.Politicians in the US still brag that their country is a “superpower” despite evidence that no one believes it any more.And at a recent seminar in Brussels, a Pakistani diplomat waxed lyrical about the country’s respectful treatment of women and efforts to empower them while people looked on in disbelief.Of course everybody takes such blatant hyperbole with a huge chunk of salt. We roll our eyes, shut off the TV, shout obscenities at the liars.Which is why Juncker’s speech took many by surprise. Yes, there were some hecklers from the Far Right in the European assembly but mostly the intervention — long and rambling at times — prompted respect for its brutal assessment of 21st century Europe — and Juncker’s recipe for changing things.The Commission chief was especially honest in his references to Europe’s refugee crisis and governments’ response to it.At a time when many EU leaders continue to waiver on Europe’s responsibilities towards the hundreds of thousands of refugees seeking shelter in Europe, Juncker made clear that Europe had a moral obligation to help those fleeing war, terror and oppression.“We Europeans should remember that Europe is a continent where nearly everyone has at one time been a refugee. Our common history has been marked by millions of Europeans fleeing from religious or political persecution from war, dictatorship or oppression,” Juncker underlined.It is a theme that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has dwelt on repeatedly over the last few weeks. Germany’s welcome of refugees may be rooted in its history but it certainly puts other EU leaders — especially in Britain and in Central and Eastern European countries — to shame.And it looks likely that while many countries have more or less grudgingly accepted more newcomers on their territories, Juncker and Merkel’s calls for compulsory quotas for the resettlement of refugees in the 28 countries will continue to run into opposition from Britain, Hungary, the Czech Republic and others.Meanwhile, following a moment of unusual silence, Europe’s Far Right groups have once again found their poisonous voice. The Netherlands’ leading Muslim-hater Geert Wilder has warned that the refugees represent an “Islamic invasion” of Europe.In France, Wilder’s counterpart Marine Le Pen has decided that “99 per cent” of the refugees coming to Europe are men who are making the journey for economic reasons. She made the statement as television images should pictures of joyful children arriving in Germany.Juncker — like Merkel — has warned against distinguishing between Jews, Christians and Muslims, saying there is “no religion, no belief, no philosophy when it comes to refugees”.There were also tough words on Greece and the need for economic reform to bring back confidence in the economy and among Greeks.And he voiced support for a “fair deal for Britain” as the country prepares to hold its referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017.Finally, Juncker urged EU states to be united in trying to shore up Ukraine while also engaging with Russia.EU governments’ response to Euro troubles in Greece and the refugee crisis has indeed spotlighted a disunited, squabbling Europe. Yes, the EU is the world’s most successful — and inspirational — example of deep regional integration, with a single currency shared by 19 countries, and 26 nations agreeing to scrap their national borders through the “Schengen” agreement.But Greece almost brought about the unraveling of the Eurozone. And the mass cross-border movement of refugees is threatening the Schengen pact. On foreign and security policy, divisions among the 28 countries are ever-visible.While the world watches closely and with concern, the EU will have to tread carefully in the coming months to preserve its many achievements and strive for more.

View from Abroad: Europe and the new world order (Originally published 11/07/2015 at dawn.com)

Entangled in the Greek debt crisis, few European policymakers had the time or interest this week to pay attention to the summit talks in the Russian city of Ufa between the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).True, Europe has its hands full with Greece and the looming possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. But the world doesn’t stop for Europe. And pretending that the BRICS and their self-confident leaders don’t matter — or matter little — is not an option.Discussions about the rapidly-transforming world, the role and influence of the BRICS and Europe’s relations with the emerging powers appear to be off the European Union agenda. For now, the focus is rightly on the existential threat posed by Grexit, the acrimony the Greek crisis has triggered across the EU and the worsening relationship among Eurozone leaders.Solving the Greek problem should of course take priority. But Europeans know that more is at stake. Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has so far been most vocal in signalling his fears that the fury unleashed by the difficulties in Greece is damaging the very existence of the EU. But this thought is also in many other minds. If Europe can’t get its house in order, it really does run the risk of becoming irrelevant on an increasingly crowded global stage.For the moment, most Europeans seem to fall into two categories: those who fear the rapidly-changing world order and the increasingly long list of nations clamouring for a stronger role on the world stage and those who hope that if they look the other way, firm up their bonds with the United States, the world won’t change too much and the BRICS will gradually fade away.There are some, wiser, people in the middle: they may not be enthusiastic about the changes being made to the global status quo; but they also know that times are changing fast and that Europe needs to adapt, adjust and accommodate.It was on the advice of such people that despite strong pressure from the US not to do so, several EU countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) set up by China.While many Europeans voice fear that China is “buying up” European assets, cooler heads are urging the EU to join forces with China’s ambitious ‘One Belt, One Road’ transport networks to boost domestic growth and jobs.Similar arguments for and against cooperating with emerging nations are likely to come to the fore as Europeans discuss membership of the New Development Bank (NDB) being set up by the BRICS to fund projects in member countries.Headquartered in Shanghai, the bank is expected to be operational by end of 2015. Once fully operational, it will become an alternative financing source for the BRICS nations and other emerging markets.Like the head of the AIIB, the first chief of the BRICS bank, India’s K. V. Kamath has been quoted as saying that the NDB sees other multilateral lending institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) as partners rather than rivals.And yet many continue to be suspicious. The US and Japan have not yet joined the AIIB and many EU policymakers continue to voice fears that the new banks will fall short of high Western standards of transparency and accountability.The BRICS have made clear that they don’t really care. The Old Guard is welcome to come on board, but the world is moving on and they won’t stop for the laggards.Russia, given its tense relations with the West following the crisis in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, has taken the toughest line in its dealing with Europe and America. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underlined in Ufa, emerging nations represent a “new polycentric system of international relations” and demonstrate new global centres of power.As he shook hands with his Chinese, Indian, South African and Brazilian counterparts, a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that he was far from the sad and isolated man that the West wants him to be.And it’s not just about the BRICS. An array of newly-empowered nations and groupings are challenging Europe and America’s dominance of the post World War II order. Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia are part of MIKTA which claims to act as a bridge between old and new powers.New Zealand says it is the champion of “small nations” without whose support nothing can be achieved on the global stage. The Group of 20 remains relevant as a forum which brings together industrialised and emerging countries.And then there is also the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which EU and Nato policymakers also tend to shrug off as an impotent “paper tiger”.They shouldn’t. As India and Pakistan set out on the road to membership of the SCO, it is clear that while the security organisation does not see itself as a rival to Nato, it does intend to make its voice heard on global security challenges.Underlining just how significantly the world has changed, the five BRICS countries and the six SCO members which include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — joined by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia which have observer status — held a joint summit in Ufa.The Greek crisis was on the BRICS agenda of course. While Europe may not like the new world out there, emerging nations know that in an interconnected and interdependent world, what happens in Europe affects them. And that a failed Europe is in nobody’s interest.

View From Abroad: Europe, India and Modi — could be starting over (Originally published 20/06/2015 at dawn.com)

It has taken one year, but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has finally signalled an interest in reviving ties with the European Union. And the EU is ready to reciprocate, albeit cautiously.India has in fact long been the big gap in the EU’s outreach to Asia. While India and the EU declared that they were strategic partners some years ago, the relationship has never really taken off.Indians complained the EU was distracted by problems at home and its focus on China. Europeans said India was too mesmerised by the US to pay attention to Europe. Contacts between the two sides were desultory, slow-moving and lacklustre.Finally, after a year-long wait, it looks like this could change. Whether it is his “Make in India” campaign or plans for “Digital India” and “smart cities”, Modi knows he needs European know-how and money. Europe, for its part, is eager to be involved in the massive overhaul of the Indian economic system that the prime minister is promising.Modi’s warm embrace of foreign partners could soon therefore also extend to the EU and not just national European governments. To make the Delhi-Brussels rapprochement sustainable, action is required in some important areas.First, after a year of little or no high-level contact, Delhi and Brussels must resume negotiations on the much delayed Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), a comprehensive deal covering all areas in goods, services and public procurement in both markets. Once signed, the agreement could act as an important launching pad for increased European investments in India.Second, India’s new economic programme opens up fresh avenues for increased EU-India alliance which go beyond the two sides’ traditional interaction. This could include cooperation in areas where both sides have a strong economic interest such as infrastructure investments, sustainable urbanisation, innovation and synergies between “Digital India” and the EU’s agenda for a Digital Single Market.Third and most importantly, there are hopes that EU and Indian leaders could meet for summit talks, possibly in November this year to coincide with the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey. With no bilateral summit held over the last three years — the last such gathering was in February 2012 in Delhi — the EU-India relationship is in desperate need of renewed political direction to give it a new lease of life.Both sides agree that EU-India relations need to be broadened to include a “beyond-trade” agenda — and that Modi’s wide-ranging modernisation programme offers ample opportunities for such new synergies. Realistically, however, a quick relaunch of the stalled BTIA negotiations is required to get the relationship back on a constructive track and for discussions to begin in new areas.This may now happen. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and Indian Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who met on the margins of an OECD meeting in Paris on June 4, have agreed to restart the BTIA talks as soon as possible. Contacts are expected to resume soon, leading to cautious hopes that the deal — eight years in the making — will finally be clinched early next year.The EU has made clear that it is targeting the emerging well-off Indian middle class for enhanced market access in automobiles, wines and spirits, and cheese. Brussels is also calling for reform in Indian laws on intellectual property rights, trade and environment, trade and labour, and wants liberal access in insurance, banking and retail trade. India, for its part, is insisting on more labour mobility, professional work visas and recognition as a data-secure country to attract more European investments in its high-tech sector.With two-way trade estimated at around €72.5 billion in 2014 while the EU’s investment stock in India was €34.7 billion in 2013, there is certainly ample room for improvement. But agreement on BTIA will require that both sides summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.In order to get India and the EU talking to each other on these and other equally interesting topics, Modi’s can-do spirit needs to filter down to different, less adventurous echelons of the Indian bureaucracy. The European External Action Service, meanwhile, must work in tandem with the European Commission’s trade and other departments to hammer out a fresh EU-India agenda for action which looks at new areas and interests. Such an action plan should be short, snappy and action-oriented, rather than the long wish list which the EU traditionally draws up with and for its partners. Hopefully, Such a pithy document could then be approved at the EU-India summit later this year.Above all, both sides must take a fresh look at each other. European member states have already recognised the importance of India, both as a regional actor and an influential global player. It is time the EU institutions shed their reservations and engaged with India as an increasingly powerful 21st century partner.Equally, India should recognise that while relations with national European governments are important, the EU also has much to offer. It would be a pity if the full potential of EU-India ties were to remain untapped and unexplored for another long period.

View from Abroad: I wrote this column — despite being a woman (Originally published 13/06/2015 at dawn.com)

Yes, let’s make fun of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sexist praise of his Bangladeshi counterpart, Sheikh Hasina, for being tough on terror “despite being a woman”. Social media in India and the world over has had a field day with Modi’s comment. I’ve laughed and tweeted along with everyone else.Imagine: the leader of the world’s largest democracy — and one which had a powerful female prime minister — making such an old-fashioned, disparaging remark about women. Outrageous. Unacceptable. Shocking. Offensive. Indian men are still stuck in a time warp.Really? Once the laughter stops, let’s take a sober look at the sad reality of women’s role, status and influence in the 21st century. And let’s also recognise that there is no dearth of men — and women — who still believe that women should be neither seen, nor heard. And that those of us who do manage to live “normal” lives, sometimes even becoming prime ministers, parliamentarians, business leaders, judges, doctors, teachers, journalists and so on… do so “despite being a woman”.Take a look: Modi trolled for lauding Hasina's courage in fighting terror 'despite being a woman'The data on lack of progress on women’s rights is daunting. Too many statistics point to the hard struggle still going on to end gender discrimination in government, business, schools and at home. Women make up half the world’s population and yet represent a staggering 70% of the world’s poor. Although some changes have been made, the struggle for women’s development and empowerment continues to face many obstacles due to government neglect, discrimination, family traditions and actions by religious authorities.The good news is that achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls is recognised as an important priority in the post-2015 development agenda. But how committed are governments to giving priority attention to women and girls in their national development plans? Even more importantly, how ready are societies to accept women as full participants?In the same week that Modi got blasted for his comments, Tim Hunt, an English biochemist who is also a Nobel laureate, told the World Conference of Science Journalists in Seoul, South Korea, that he believed scientists should work in gender-segregated labs.“Let me tell you about my trouble with girls … three things happen when they are in the lab … You fall in love with them, they fall in love with you and when you criticise them, they cry,” Hunt intoned. Oh dear.Hunt’s angry critics have warned that his comments are a “disaster for the advancement of women”. And of course, female scientists are outraged. As it is, not many girls are opting to become scientists.If only Modi and Hunt were alone in believing women aren’t really strong and stoic enough to play hard ball. As the two men have shown, rubbishing women is probably the one sentiment/prejudice that unites many men, rich or poor, educated or illiterate, living in an industrialised or a developing country.It’s a common strand in the belief and discourse of Christian conservatives and their Muslim and Jewish counterparts. Veil them, cover their bodies and keep them home is the mantra of religious zealots of all faiths. And that includes the self-styled Islamic State of course.Sadly, women are as bad as men in believing women can’t make it to the top — and sometimes shouldn’t even try.It’s personal. As a teenager when I was still in Pakistan, a female “friend” of the family suggested that as a future housewife, I should study “home economics” rather than international politics. Others asked vaguely why I wasn’t thinking of attending a “finishing school” to make me into a perfect wife.“I plan to have a job,” I remember saying with some disdain. “But only if your husband allows it!” was the angry response.Well, luckily things turned out differently. Interestingly, at a recent dinner debate in Brussels on “women and development”, almost all female participants had very moving stories to tell of their different trajectories and of the men and women — mothers and fathers — who had helped or discouraged them on their voyage to self-fulfilment.There was talk of the “HeforShe” campaign that acknowledges that men have a key role to play in women’s empowerment. The importance of role models, inspirational mentors, hard-nosed teachers was stressed. Some women said their families had encouraged them to break away from stereotypes — others acknowledged that they did not have family support as they sought their own way in life.It was an evening of laughter and some tears. Of promises that as mothers, we were bringing up our sons and daughters differently, teaching them to respect each other.Women have achieved much over the years. But there’s still a long way to go. For all the howls of derision directed at him, Prime Minister Modi has done his bit to empower women through political appointments and social policies. After taking office last May, he appointed six women to his cabinet — the highest number in the history of the country.He has taken a strong stance against female feticide, which he called a “terrible crises” since India has a child sex ratio of 918 girls for every 1000 boys, a recipe for social unrest.It’s great he’s taken these and other steps — despite being a man.

View from Abroad: New development paradigm (Originally published 08/03/2015 at dawn.com)

It used to be so simple: the world was divided into rich and poor countries. The rich provided aid and trade concessions to the poor ones. It was called Official Development Assistance (ODA) and often seen as a panacea for all problems facing “third world” countries. Rich nations promised to spend 0.7 per cent of their GDP as ODA. Developing nations were grateful for the help. It was neat and tidy. Orderly even.Only of course it wasn’t. It was messy, patronising and based on the notion of charity. Nothing wrong with charity — only that it begins at home. And as the going got tougher at home, growth rates dipped and jobs became scarcer, richer countries were less and less anxious to help the poorer ones.And then the world turned on its head as poor countries — or at least some of them — stopped being really poor. China, India, South Africa, Brazil began to rise, becoming more self confident and assertive by the day. They asked for stronger representation in international financial institutions, set up their own bank, started investing in and assisting their less well-off friends.In 2000 amid all the change and shift in power from North to South, the talk turned to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and eradicating poverty. However, it was still about the rich helping the poor, putting conditions on their aid, making sure that there was no wastage, no human rights abuses.Fast forward to 2015 and the world is a dramatically different place. The talk is of a post-2015 agenda which is about sustainable development in both the North and the South. There is a focus on governance, gender balance, and moving “beyond ODA”.There is agreement that the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will not be met by ODA alone. Their achievement will require the mobilisation of the private sector, a better use of remittances and philanthropy and more creative thinking about “blending” private and public funds.And above all there will be a focus on the mobilisation of additional resources by developing countries through domestic resource mobilisation, including through more thorough and efficient national tax collection.Yes, finally after years of beating around the bush, global attention is turning to tackling tax evasion, by companies and individuals. The question will be high up on the agenda of the third International Conference on Financing for Development which will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from July 13 to 16, 2015.The reason for the focus on domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries is clearly linked to the fact that ODA is on its way down and traditional donors are getting tougher.There is good talk about the potential benefits of taxation for state-building and the long-term independence from foreign assistance. It is also of course a question of governance.Revenue from taxation and customs provides governments with the funds needed to invest in development, relieve poverty and deliver public services directed towards the physical and social infrastructure required to enhance long-term growth.Strengthening domestic resource mobilisation is not just a question of raising revenues: it is also about designing a revenue system that promotes inclusiveness, encourages good governance, improves accountability of governments to their citizens, and cultivates social justice.Non-governmental agencies such as Christian Aid have estimated that developing countries, including lower- and middle-income countries, could be losing out on as much as $160bn a year in potential tax revenue because companies are dodging taxes. This was one and a half times the combined overseas aid budget of the whole rich world at the time, and there’s no reason to think the problem has got smaller since then.In 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa established a high-level panel to write a report on illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa and to come up with ways to combat them.The panel, presided by the former South African head of state Thabo Mbeki, warned that the cost of IFFs to the continent was around $50 billion each year.The report states: “Some have estimated that Africa’s capital stock would have expanded by more than 60 per cent if funds leaving Africa illicitly had remained on the continent, while GDP per capita would be up to 15 per cent more.”Worse still, this sum is even greater than the total official development assistance received by African countries, which was $46.1 billion in 2012.At a recent conference in Brussels, participants underlined that there was no dearth of money in the world and that in fact Africa was a rich continent. The money was just not in Africa, but hidden and hoarded in tax havens, most of them in rich countries.

View From Abroad: European lessons for Asian security (Originally published 14/02/2015 at dawn.com)

The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.

View From Abroad: Ties with China are bright spot in Europe’s foreign policy (Originally published 31/01/2015 at dawn.com)

The new European Union Commission, in office since November last year, likes to talk of a “fresh start” for Europe. There is upbeat talk of streamlining EU actions, simplifying procedures, launching a new era of mega investment projects and revving up growth.The reality is more complicated. The election in Greece of a new anti-austerity coalition government headed by Alexis Tsipras has highlighted growing dissent and anger in the Eurozone over the unrelentingly rigid fiscal policies imposed by Germany and followed by the EU.The much-publicised 315 billion euro investment plan launched by the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker may look impressive on paper but is seen by many as too woolly to really generate the growth and jobs that Europe needs so desperately.Additionally, the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier in January means that the Far Right and anti-Islamic parties continue to gain traction and become ever more dominant in the debate on immigration.It’s equally bleak on the foreign policy front. Relations with Russia remain tense. Although there is almost agreement among the 28 EU nations on the need to maintain sanctions against Moscow, depending on their national histories and experiences, European foreign ministers’ attitudes towards Moscow range from very tough (the Baltic states and some Central and Eastern European countries) to soft (Greece and Italy).In the south, the EU is struggling to forge a coherent and meaningful strategy towards Turkey and its other Southern Mediterranean neighbours as well as the Islamic State (IS). European governments also remain divided over whether or not to recognise an independent Palestinian state.Further afield, relations with Japan, South Korea and India remain largely lacklustre and uninspiring. Unlike US President Barack Obama, no European leader can claim to have a glamorous bromance with India’s celebrity Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Japan’s Shinzo Abe.Not surprisingly therefore to many observers in Asia, EU foreign policy seems slow and plodding, focused almost exclusively on trade and business and not enough on a long-term strategy for closer political and security ties.There is one striking exception, however: China. Surprisingly in a world of flux, EU-China relations remain relatively strong, vibrant and multifaceted even as Europe dithers over Russia, India and other emerging nations.The point was made at a meeting of European think tanks in Brussels this week, with experts agreeing that Europe and China must up their engagement. Such consensus is rare in Brussels, especially among academics.Certainly, it’s their mutual economic interdependence that keeps EU-China ties dynamic and buoyant. China’s growth rates may be slowing down but its appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery.China’s economic transformation — and plans for even more change in the coming years — demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology.China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments. Both sides are negotiating a formal treaty to further boost mutual investment flows.Increasingly, also in Brussels there is recognition that a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials.Europe’s one-time ambition to shape China into a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising. But there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues including relations with, Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significantly, China has invested time, effort and money into upping its relations with Europe. Beijing is working on several tracks at the same time. The focus in recently years has been on further consolidating the China-Germany “special relationship” but also reinforcing ties with former communist nations in Central and Eastern Europe, countries in the Western Balkans and also Nordic states.Responding to critics who complained that Beijing was paying too much attention to European member states and not enough to the EU, Chinese leaders have made it a point in recent months to visit Brussels.The result is a surprisingly solid and well-rounded EU-China relationship which could even become a model for other Asian countries.A key problem, however, is that the EU still treats China as just another emerging nation rather than the regional and global mammoth that it has become. The emphasis is on bread and butter issues like trade and investments, urbanisation, good and valid subjects but do not reflect Beijing’s increasing global clout and outreach.The EU should be looking at thrashing out a new narrative for China which is truly strategic and considers issues like global governance, sustainable development goals and international terrorism.In other words, as the EU and China prepare to celebrate 40 years of their relationship, the EU-China relationship should move from the ritualistic to the strategic — as quickly as possible.

View from Abroad: Pakistan’s choice (Originally published 6/12/2014 at dawn.com)

As I prepare to travel to Pakistan — the first such visit in five years — I am filled with admiration, amazement and apprehension. They say the past is a different country. And Pakistan is certainly a very different country from the one I left all those years ago.Pakistan and I have both changed. I am obviously older (but not wiser) than the young, naive and rather demure girl who boarded the plane from Islamabad to Brussels with her parents and sister. At the time, I believed I would be away for a few months, may be a couple of years. Several decades later, Europe has become a core part of my identity and existence and Brussels is “home”, a city that has nourished and nurtured me through good times and bad.Pakistan’s transformation is more starkly radical. Sometimes I can hardly recognise my country of birth. There is much still to admire and love — and to yearn for on cold European winter evenings. Family and friends of course. The food and some of the music. The stories being told by old writers and new ones whose books I devour avidly. The artists whose pieces stir long-buried memories.But what I admire most is the resilience of the people. The indomitable spirit of the so-called common man, the “ordinary” people — or the “masses” that the Pakistani politicians refer to in derision — who keep the country humming and running against all odds.You see that unbeatable spirit everywhere, among the people displaced by floods and the deadly fighting between the army and the Taliban, after the tragic deaths of innocent civilians caused by drones, among the thousand Malalas still determined to go to school and the sick people waiting patiently for a doctor to see them in crowded hospitals.But that resilience is also about being optimistic about the future. Going to work every day in packed buses, facing harassment, electricity breakdowns, rampant inflation and corruption with stubbornness and stoicism. And to keep going on and on. I admire Pakistani business leaders and innovators who still invest and believe in the country. The young and the daring entrepreneurs. People who speak up for tolerance, resist the siren song of conformity and compromise.I have seen the same energy and resilience in many other parts of Asia and in Africa. But recently rarely in Europe. The Eurozone crisis has exhausted Europe and joblessness rates are much too high, especially for young people.But speak to young people in China, India and Indonesia and it is clear that they believe in a better future. Visit the countries and it is clear that people’s lives are getting better. Of course there is still inequality, poverty and hunger. But the governments in these countries are trying hard to tackle the multiple challenges they face. Are Pakistani politicians doing the same?So what about my amazement? Well, I suppose it’s about the patience of the people, the willingness to put up with mediocre and often corrupt politicians, war-mongering soldiers, inequality and unfairness and the rampant lack of the rule of law. Elections have not led to real democracy. All that aid money pouring in, has not led to sustainable growth and development.Reading the online version of the front page of Dawn fills me with wonder at how quickly Pakistan’s political landscape has turned into a dark, cruel, repetitive circus. The scowling, angry features of former cricketer Imran Khan, the crazy pronouncements of the Canadian preacher, the ever-chubbier and dishevelled, helpless look of the prime minister and the semi-lucid mutterings of the scion of the Bhutto family.And then there is the apprehension. Despite the disappointment and the disillusionment with a country which I once called home, I suppose there is still some lingering connection, a hope that Pakistan will survive the challenges of the 21st century, stand proud and tall and become an integral part of a rising Asia.It would be nice if Pakistan was in the headlines not because of the antics of the likes of Junaid Jamshed, anti-India rants by the foreign ministry, suicide bombings and hate-Malala crazies as well as the treatment being meted out to Asia Bibi but because the country was breaking new ground, turning a fresh page, opting for sanity rather than madness.After so many years and so many wonderful experiences in Europe and Asia — not to mention the lessons in honesty, sincerity and fearlessness that I learned from my father — I wonder if I will be able to stay silent when I encounter intolerance and religiosity and the blatant disregard for the rights of women, children and minorities that seems to have become part of the national discourse.Across Asia, there is hope and progress. Viewed from Brussels, it certainly looks like this is the Asian Century, a time when Asia is coming of age, growing and developing.Pakistan has a choice: it could join the Asian mainstream and give its people the life and future they deserve or it can opt to be part of a self-destructive Middle East mindset and stay on the periphery of a dynamic and vibrant Asia. I know what I would choose — but do they?

View from Abroad: Europe waits for trade talks but Modi ‘looks East’ (Originally published 22/11/2014 at dawn.com)

These are busy times for Asian leaders — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the busiest.Last week as he criss-crossed Asia, clinching business deals, attracting much-needed investments and building strategic alliances, Modi found time for a quick meeting with the European Union’s outgoing European Council President Herman Van Rompuy to underline that the “EU should take advantage of the new economic environment in India”.The two men apparently agreed that the United Nations should hold an annual international “Yoga Day”.But not much was apparently said on the EU-India free trade agreement that the two sides have been trying to negotiate for the last seven years and which now seems to have run into the ground.EU officials are still hoping that the negotiations will be back on track soon. But the Indian leader is too busy looking elsewhere.As of this autumn, Modi has his nation and the rest of Asia abuzz with his determination to inject new life into India’s “Look East” policy which, following his incessant Asian travels, including recent talks with Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) and other Asian leaders in Myanmar, has morphed into what Modi proudly describes as a “Look East — and Act East” policy.India’s decision to step up its game in Asia is no surprise. As an emerging power with “great power” ambitions, India has no option but to seek a stronger role in a volatile neighbourhood and a region marked by often-changing geopolitical rivalries and alliances. Also, tapping into the region’s dynamic economies is critical for India’s own growth and reform agenda.Certainly, China has the funds needed to help finance India’s infrastructure requirements while Japan and South Korea have the technical experience and expertise. South-east Asian markets are important for Indian investors and exporters. Sustainable peace with Pakistan may still be a long way off but is essential for India’s development and peace and stability in the region.While in Myanmar, Modi made the headlines by pushing his “Make in India” campaign, which aims to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub, by cutting red tape, upgrading infrastructure and making it easier for companies to do business. Modi promised to implement long-delayed plans to boost trade and deepen ties with Asean so that current trade flows could rise from $75 billion today to $100 billion by 2015.In fact, the policy is not new. India has long spoken of developing a “Look East” policy, but has lagged behind China in forging ties with emerging economies in South-East Asia. Tackling China’s influence on Asean and South Asia is still a challenge but India benefits from the fact that Japan, Asean and others in the region are certainly looking to reduce their economic dependence on Beijing by reaching out to Delhi.Indian commentators also underline that Modi used the Asean meeting to articulate for the first time India’s intent to enhance “balance” in the Asia Pacific region, arguing that the word was carefully chosen to reflect India’s shared concerns with other Asian countries about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.Interestingly, Indian defence cooperation is being stepped up with several Indian Ocean states including Sri Lanka and Maldives. India will supply four naval patrol vessels to Hanoi as part of $100 million Line of Credit signed last month. The two countries have also decided to ramp up cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon, civil nuclear energy and space.Given Modi’s focus on the Asia-Pacific, the EU’s new leaders may have to wait a long time before he signals a real interest in upgrading bilateral ties.It is no secret that the EU-India strategic partnership needs a shot in the arm and that trade and investment flows are much too modest. But negotiations for an India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) — the most important issue on the bilateral agenda — have lasted for seven years, with no end in sight. And hopes that New Delhi would put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the elusive deal have not materialised, with differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights continuing to impede progress.The pact could be signed in 2015 — but only if both sides can summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.Modi and the EU’s new leaders face the uphill task of taking the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level, a move that would benefit both sides.In addition to the geopolitical value of such a decision, European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.To inject momentum into the relationship, both sides will need to make an effort. EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will therefore be crucial in signalling a fresh start in relations.

Taking EU-India relations beyond trade (Originally published 08/02/12)

Negotiations on a first-ever EU-India free trade agreement are injecting much-needed excitement into Europe’s relationship with India.Despite earlier hopes, the trade deal will not be signed at the 12th EU-India summit in Delhi on February 10th. But the buzz generated by the negotiations as they enter a critical final stage is helping to lift Europe’s profile in a country which has so far kept the EU at a polite arms length.Significantly the trade talks, now into their fifth year, have helped to focus official and public attention in India on the EU – rather than individual European member states - as a global economic player.The challenge facing European policymakers is to use the shift from indifference to interest in EU-India relations to reinforce the still largely underdeveloped conversation with Delhi on non-trade questions.The change of mood is recent - but palpable on both sides. Senior Indian officials now describe the EU as a “key strategic partner”. Catherine Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy was recently in Delhi for a groundbreaking foreign policy dialogue with her Indian counterpart.With EU-India trade currently estimated at a mere 86 billion euros a year (compared to almost 400 billion euros annually with China), the free trade pact under negotiation – officially called a “Bilateral Investment and Trade Agreement” - is a good step forward in building stronger ties and increasing mutual understanding.The ongoing trade negotiations, while problematic on some key issues, have meant more regular contacts between Indian and European officials – and a clearer European understanding of the complexities of India.This is cause for some celebration. For all the talk of India’s rise and the country’s growing global clout as a member of the G20, the EU has not devoted adequate time or effort to clarify its strategic objectives and interests in the country. As such the EU-India “strategic partnership”, launched in 2004, has remained under-exploited.In part, this is the result of India’s complex landscape. According to some forecasts, the country is set to overtake China as the world’s fastest growing economic by 2050. The Asian Development Bank reckons that India’s 350 million strong middle class could grow to 1 billion in 2025. But India also has one third of the world’s poor. A major effort is therefore necessary if India is to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen points out, “India has started falling behind every other South Asian country (with the partial exception of Pakistan) in terms of social indicators, even as it is doing so well in terms of per capita income.” The Indian government is paying greater attention to making development more inclusive and achieving a substantial reduction in poverty. The national focus is also on structural reforms, including better governance – especially following the Anna Hazare anti-corruption campaign in the wake of key graft scandals - and improved infrastructure. But more remains to be done.India and Europe share common values such as democracy and a preference for multilateralism. They also have common goals as regards good governance, achieving MDGs and working for global peace and stability. But the partnership is made more difficult because of divergent interests. Crucially there are different interpretations of what a strategic partnership is supposed to achieve.The EU sees it as a partnership to achieve global public goods by meeting 21st century challenges, including terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, state failure and regional conflicts. India views its strategic partnerships with the EU and the US as a vehicle for ensuring greater worldwide prestige and political clout.There is also an inevitable dissonance between the EU as a status quo power which is often reluctant to make room for newcomers and India which is seeking great power status. The accusation is that the EU speaks the language of inclusiveness but unwilling to cede its seats and voting rights.This time, however, Europeans want to do more than talk trade with India. While in Delhi, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will try and convince their host Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to join the international sanctions regime against Iran.The EU says it is disappointed that India has not joined the large international consensus against Iran’s nuclear programme. India, however, is heavily dependent on Iranian oil to meet its growing energy needs.Venturing into relatively new political territory as regards volatile politics in South Asia, Messrs Rompuy and Barroso will also encourage recent signs of a thaw in Indian relations with Pakistan following Islamabad’s decision to grant Most Favoured Nation trade status to India and Delhi’s move to allow a World Trade Organisation (WTO) waiver on zero-tariff EU imports of Pakistani textiles.There will be discussions on climate change and signature of a declaration on enhanced cooperation on energy which will allow joint activities in areas such clean coal, energy efficiency and renewables as well as nuclear safety.Interestingly, cooperation possibilities will be explored as regards cyber security and anti-piracy operations as well as more exchanges on counter-terrorism.These initiatives are positive and should help prepare the ground for further political exchanges. However, as the FTA negotiations enter the final stretch and domestic lobbies in both India and Europe fight hard to defend their interests, the summit’s focus will inevitably be on trade.The EU is seeking a steep reduction in tariffs for export of its automobiles, wines and spirits to India. However, the proposals have met with fierce resistance from Indian manufacturers.Europeans are also pushing India to open the banking and insurance, postal, legal, accounting, maritime, security and retail sectors.European carmakers say the FTA will grant Indian-built cars immediate duty-free access to the EU but would only reduce the tariff barrier to European vehicle exports to a level of 30 per cent, which would stay intact indefinitely. Car manufacturers in India including Tata, Toyota, Maruti Suzuki, Honda, Hyundai Motor and General Motors, otherwise fierce competitors in the Indian market, have joined ranks to resist what they fear will be a flood of imported European cars into the Indian market.These and other disagreements will inevitably be sorted out in the coming months. Once the FTA is completed, the EU and India must pay increased attention to other aspects of their relations. Both sides can set key priorities which meet India’s requirements as a dynamic emerging power but a country which is also struggling to combat poverty and exclusion.As India rises along with the rest of Asia, it deserves stronger EU recognition as a regional and global power, not just an expanding market for EU exports and investments.