2/16/15 2/16/15

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The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.

9/8/14 9/8/14

A new agenda for EU-Asia relations (Originally published 14/01/13)

Perhaps it was the US “pivot” to Asia, perhaps the Eurozone crisis or possibly a much-belated recognition of the need for stronger Asia-Europe engagement? Whatever the reason – or mix of reasons - European leaders have been spending some much-needed time and energy on improving their Asian connections.Leading European officials EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy attended key Asian gatherings in 2012. The EU also signed up to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, Southeast Asia’s peace blueprint.The efforts are paying off. There is heightened awareness of European-Asian economic interdependence; trade and investments are booming despite the Eurozone crisis and the global economic slowdown; after years of watching from the sidelines, the EU is becoming involved in Asia’s security discussions; there is recognition that tackling 21st Century challenges requires more forceful Asia-Europe cooperation.Following progress in EU-Asia relations made in 2012, the time is ripe to take relations to a higher level. This requires that both sides switch from a focus on visits, meetings and issuing statements and communiques to a more substantive and meaningful strategy for stronger mutual engagement.The time for photo-opportunities is over. Official visits - however welcome and needed – must be backed up by a fresh vision for a stronger, more sustainable EU-Asia strategic partnership which underlines areas where the two regions can work together to meet the challenge of living together in a rapidly changing and very complex world.The new blueprint need not be long or all-comprehensive. Asia is much too diverse and the challenges it faces are much too complex to lend itself to such an approach. Europe too is changing fast.In the end, it’s simple: In an inter-dependent, globalised world where no one nation, bloc or region can claim to lead the rest, where security is about more than military spending and where nations’ are connected to each other by a dense web of trade and investments, Europe-Asia cooperation is the only option.It’s not about whether Europeans have the time, energy or interest in Asia or whether Asians think Europe is still relevant. It’s about the economy, moving beyond the Eurozone crisis and the challenge of ensuring sustained global growth. It’s about dealing with climate change, pandemics, humanitarian disasters and poverty. It’s also about preventing tensions and conflicts which can endanger global peace and security.Here are a few suggestions for engineering a truly qualitative step forward in EU-Asia relations:

Move from an event-focused relationship to a partnership based on common concerns and tackling shared challenges. This shift can be made within the Asia Europe Meetings (ASEM), in relations with ASEAN and on a bilateral level. The agenda set for such meetings is often an endless laundry list of areas of cooperation. These should be narrowed down to a smaller list of core issues which require joint reflection and action. This should include (a) new global challenges such as climate change and urbanisation, (b) trade and economic questions, (c) politics and security, (d) regional integration initiatives and (e) people-to-people contacts.

Use the ASEM network of 51 nations and organisations to advance discussions on the list of issues above and foster stronger personal contacts between European and Asian leaders and policymakers. The fact that the next ASEM summit will be held in Brussels in autumn 2014 under Lisbon rules (ie the EU Council and the European External Action Service will set the agenda rather than an individual European government) provides a welcome opportunity for discussions to focus on EU-wide interests rather than narrower national priorities.

Continue to enhance ties with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The ambitious plan of action agreed at the EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting in 2013 is a good step forward in relations but needs to be accompanied by three important steps: the organisation of an EU-ASEAN summit, reflection on recognising ASEAN as a key strategic partner and the appointment of a special EU envoy to ASEAN. Such moves will not only give EU-ASEAN relations a stronger foundation but also signal the EU’s recognition of ASEAN’s “centrality” gin ensuring peace and stability in the Asia Pacific and leading regional integration initiatives.

Leverage economic and trade ties to forge an integrated strategy for EU-Asia relations. Economics has long been the backbone of EU-Asia links and the EU has been pro-active in negotiating free trade agreements and investment treaties with leading Asian nations, including South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, India and Japan. Business summits are also often held with many Asian countries, including with ASEAN. These trade initiatives need to be made part of the EU’s overall Asia strategy. This is especially important given that Asian nations are involved in an array of regional trade networks, including their own Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) initiative and the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Engage in security discussions. As it seeks to gain entry to the East Asia Summit, the EU should make sure that leading European policymakers participate in Asian security fora such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) but also the informal Shangrila Dialogue held every year in Singapore and ASEAN-linked security discussions. Although there is no European military presence in Asia, the EU can make constructive contributions to the region’s security discussions in areas such as preventive diplomacy, conflict resolution and disaster management.

Move away from confrontational narratives. EU-Asia relations have been complicated for far too long by a narrative of competition which paints a picture of the EU as reluctant to adapt to a rapidly changing world and uncertain and uneasy Europe in the face of a self-confident and assertive Asia. The discussion has been useful in focusing Asian and European minds’ on the changing world order and spotlighting the need for stronger Asia-Europe understanding and engagement. But it is time to move on. Asia-Europe relations in this new era must be based on partnership to deal with complex 21st Century challenges. Europe in particular needs to change the tone and style of its inter-action with Asia.

In addition to seeking a stronger regional influence, the EU should of course continue apace with its diplomatic, trade and economic ties with individual Asian countries. Stagnant South Asian regional integration in particular needs to be given a new lease of life.EU policymakers like to say that 2012 was a “pivotal” year for relations with Asia. One year is not enough, however. The effort has to be sustained over the long-term.

9/8/14 9/8/14

Cool heads needed as EU launches China solar panel probe (Originally published 07/09/12)

The European Commission’s decision on September 6 to start investigating suspected dumping of Chinese-made solar panels has sparked fears of a damaging Brussels-Beijing trade war. It should not: the EU-China relationship is much too important to be jeopardized by anti-dumping inquiries which – however sensational – represent a minor percentage of EU-China trade.The solar panel case has been on the EU drawing board for several months, prompting repeated warnings from China that any EU action would hurt the global clean energy sector and lead to damaging tit-for-tat measures.The group of European solar companies, led by Germany's SolarWorld, and including Italian and other European firms, says Chinese solar firms have been selling panels below market value in Europe. Chinese producers in the firing line include Yingli Green Energy, Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, Trina Solar Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc.The inquiry is not unexpected. Under EU law, the Commission is bound to open an anti-dumping inquiry if the complaint satisfies certain basic requirements. Officials say this is the case.The timing of the investigation is unfortunate, however: it comes just days before the EU and China hold summit talks in Brussels. The meeting on September 20 will be the last formal encounter between Premier Wen Jiabao – who has invested much time and effort in developing China’s EU connection - and senior EU policymakers before he hands over the baton to his successor (widely expected to be Vice Premier Li Keqiang).The EU action follows close on the heels of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s much-publicised visit to Beijing last week. Ms Merkel has said she wants the dispute over solar panels to be resolved through dialogue, not an anti-dumping investigation. She has also sought to reassure her worried Chinese hosts on the “absolute political will” of Eurozone countries to stabilize their currency.Merkel’s visit coincided with a Chinese announcement that it was purchasing 50 Airbus planes worth over $4 billion, the first significant order since a dispute between Beijing and Europe over emissions trading.Wen’s farewell meeting with the EU should certainly not be soured by the anti-dumping case. There should be no repeat of the acrimony generated at the EU-China summit in 2010 over EU criticism of China’s currency policy.Both sides have mended fences over the last two years. Discussions continue over human rights, market access and investments. But the Eurozone crisis and China’s increased economic clout has led to a change in the EU’s view of China. As such, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy are likely to focus on the many areas where the EU and China have succeeded in building a stronger partnership rather than on trade and other irritants.There are initial encouraging signs that Beijing is toning down its earlier rhetoric. In contrast to earlier statements, China's immediate response to the anti-dumping inquiry been measured, with no mention of any retaliatory steps.“China expresses deep regret” about the decision, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said in a statement on the ministry's website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).“Restricting China's solar panel products will not only hurt the interests of both Chinese and European industry, it will also wreck the healthy development of the global solar and clean energy sector,”said Shen.He urged the EU to “seriously consider China's position and proposals, and to resolve friction over solar panel trade through consultations and cooperation”.China sold about 21 billion euros in solar panels and components to the EU in 2011 - about 60 percent of all Chinese exports of the product.Total EU imports from China were valued at 292 billion euros last year. Imports of Chinese products subject to trade defense duties total less than one percent of that amount. The US also imposed duties on solar panel imports from China in May after a similar initiative led by SolarWorld there.Europe’s solar companies are divided over the dumping case. Some such as those that install panels say Europe should welcome Chinese imports because they make solar power more affordable and are essential for the 27-member bloc to achieve its goal of having 20 percent of energy from renewables by 2020. EU companies that have sold machinery to China to produce photovoltaic cells have also expressed misgivings.EU governments are unlikely to see eye to eye on the investigation. Berlin is wary of annoying a country with which it has forged a trade-based “special relationship” and which remains an important ally in efforts to stabilize the Eurozone.Others may also hesitate. The EU-China relationship has been gaining momentum in recent months. At their last summit in Beijing in February, the EU and China launched a high level people-to-people dialogue on a par with their discussions on strategic issues and on economic questions.An urbanization partnership is now in full swing with mayors’ from Europe and China set to meet in Brussels on September 19 for two days of discussions.In addition, EU and Chinese business leaders will meet for their own summit on September 20 to discuss investments and innovation.The upcoming EU-China summit is not expected to result in any headline-grabbing new initiatives but practical new cooperation tracks will emerge. Leaders are expected to launch discussions on water security, a rural development partnership and talk about cyber security.The focus on practical engagement and cooperation in areas of mutual interest should define the EU-China relationship in the coming years. China and Europe are increasingly interdependent, a fact that Merkel understands and underlines.As such, instead of fearing Germany’s determination to build ever-stronger relations with China, Berlin’s partners should encourage such moves. The German-China “special relationship” adds to the EU’s clout and influence when talking to Beijing.Talk of competition between the EU and Germany in dealing with China should be jettisoned. Instead, the EU should take a leaf from Berlin’s book of practical diplomacy and engagement with Beijing. What’s good for German-Chinese relations will boost, not undermine, EU-China relations.

9/8/14 9/8/14

Rising Asia and old Europe need to work together (Originally published 21/03/12, co-authored with Giles Merritt)

Tempting as it may be, it would be wrong to write off Europe as yesterday’s power. Europe still matters even though this is not the message some EU policymakers have been sending out to a watching world.The impression that Europe is too busy dealing with internal challenges to play a strong global role is especially strong in Asia. True, China gets a great deal of EU attention. And the EU’s outreach on trade remains strong. But there is more to Asia than China - and trade and investment agreements must not be made a substitute for a more pro-active EU foreign policy.The EU must engage more strongly with South Asian and Southeast Asian countries on foreign policy and security questions, not just trade. This means top-level EU participation in Asian security fora such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). It means showing up and seriously participating in ministerial meetings with Asian countries such as the EU-ASEAN gathering of foreign ministers in Brunei in April. It also requires regular and consistent high-level conversations on global and regional challenges with India and other South Asian nations.Apart from trips to China, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has been a rare visitor to the rest of Asia. Her decision to stay away from the ARF last year, for a second year running, was a serious faux pas. Not surprisingly, Asians have put Europe’s request to join the East Asia Summit – the region’s prime security club – on hold and insist that Europeans must first prove they are ready for a serious conversation with Asia on security.European policymakers are selling Europe short. Asia cannot take Europe seriously unless it does a better job of communicating with the region – and gains better understanding of what makes increasingly self-confident Asians tick.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances with governments, businesses and civil society leaders in the region.The name of the game has to be partnership between Rising Asia and Old Europe. But by failing to engage seriously and consistently with Asia, Europeans are propagating a myth of European weakness and irrelevance.The reality of Europe – the eurozone crisis notwithstanding - is different. Given its experience in turning enemies into friends, voluntarily pooling sovereignty and achieving economic and political integration, the EU has a wealth of experience to share with Asia on future frameworks for global governance. More so, it scarcely needs saying, than the United States.Asians pressing ahead with their own efforts at regional integration and cross-border cooperation still look at the EU for inspiration. Interestingly, this is still the case although Europe’s practice of lecturing ASEAN on the subject has irked many Asians.The EU’s predominance in world trade is undiminished. EU-Asia trade is booming and is crucial both for Europe’s economic recovery and ensuring that Asian growth remains on track. The EU-Korea free trade agreement is the first in a series of trade-expanding deals that Europe is negotiating with Asian partners, including India, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.Europe is the biggest source of foreign investments in Asia. Today, the eurozone crisis has made Europe’s frontier-free single market even more of a magnet for Asian investors. A recent survey underlined that 45 % of businesses in Asia are either currently doing or looking to make strategic acquisitions in Europe in the next 12 months, compared with just 14 % cent in the Middle East and 7 % in North America.Although Asian exporters and businesses may complain about Brussels’ heavy-handed ways, the EU has fostered the development of high-quality rules and standards which help shape global norms in areas such as food and consumer products, cars, chemicals, aircraft emissions. European companies are leading innovators in clean and green technologies that Asia needs to meet the challenge of low-carbon growth and urbanisation and realise their plans for increased connectivity among nations.It is the coming overhaul of the many aspects of the EU rulebook – from financial services to climate issues – that will maintain the EU’s clout and influence.Neither Europe nor Asia can work alone to tackle threats to global stability that range from resource competition, nuclear proliferation, overpopulation to climate change.Europe isn’t indifferent and certainly not irrelevant to Asia’s rise. As the US speaks of the Asia Pacific Century and seems to reinforce its presence in Asia, Europe must develop its own blueprint for improved engagement with the region.