The curious contours of a new European conversation

As the European Union gears up for its 60th anniversary next March, there’s good news and bad news.Let’s celebrate the renewed interest in the EU, both at home and abroad. But let’s also be prepared for a long and difficult struggle with those working against Europe.The surge in interest in Europe is encouraging. Demands for change and new ideas to build a more dynamic, vibrant and relevant EU are not in short supply.Interesting ideas – some big, some small – came fast and furious at Friends of Europe’s annual State of Europe brainstorm and conference last week.The voices of those who have thought about, talked about and worked for Europe for many years are valuable. They should be listened to.But importantly, others across Europe are beginning to speak up too. They include young people, women and minority groups whose engagement in EU affairs has been minimal. Business leaders, trade unionists, civil society representatives, academics and journalists are making their voices heard. They should be encouraged to say and do more.Ironically, the shock of Brexit has enlivened the conversation. The Brexiteers may have damaged Britain’s economy (and much more) but they have, unintentionally, also sparked heightened awareness of and popular interest in the EU.Such renewed curiosity is an opportunity to start a new conversation about Europe. It should be one which looks at the EU’s past, present and future.  It must look at the achievements but also at the failures and weaknesses of the Union.The confrontation between different visions of Europe is already part of daily life. This contest was evident in the run-up to the 23 June referendum in Britain and will be an essential part of the negotiations on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.There are Euro-enthusiasts and Euro-doubters in national capitals and parliaments, and in all EU institutions.And then there are the populists, both in and out of government, who are not just against the EU but also fighting actively to undermine liberal democratic values. In uneasy and uncertain times, their message of intolerance, xenophobia and “Little Europe” is already attracting voters.With elections scheduled in France, Germany and the Netherlands next year, the fight for the hearts and minds of Europeans is going to get even fiercer.France’s National Front, the Dutch Party for Freedom and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland – like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and his friends in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – have no scruples about publicising their dark vision of Fortress Europe. Their voices will get louder.But those who believe in an open and compassionate Europe should be equally passionate about voicing their beliefs. Contrary to what the populists want us to believe, a majority of Europeans do not share their nightmare version. They also need to be seen and heard.In a new world where truth and facts appear to matter less than lies, perceptions and fiction, the confrontation between the two visions of Europe is going to be dirty and ruthless.The naysayers’ simplistic anti-EU diatribes must be countered by equally simple but clever slogans.Those in favour of Europe should be proud of what has worked, and what makes the EU relevant and important – for example, contrary to conventional wisdom, the EU “peace project” still makes sense in a world where violence and war still rage just a few kilometres from Europe’s borders.But enthusiasts must also be frank enough to say what has not worked.Gentle speeches in comfortable settings just won’t do the trick. Those who believe in the EU will have to take their arguments to the people, not wait for people to fill the conference halls.Those who favour Europe must be as charismatic, eloquent and single-minded as those who oppose it.Next March’s anniversary of the EU should trigger a discussion on repairing and renewing the EU, but must also be a moment for reflection on what it means to be European in a complex and challenging world.As former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd told the Friends of Europe conference, Europeans must ‘buck up and not talk yourselves into a funk’.More than ever, Europe is a vibrant mix of people, cultures and religions. The EU is an important part of peoples’ lives, often taken for granted, often criticised and much too often under-estimated and under-sold by self-seeking politicians.French statesman Georges Clemenceau famously said that ‘War is too important to be left to the generals’.  Today, Europe is too serious and too important to be left to politicians.

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Europe’s autumn of discontent: burkinis, borders and Brexit

SO it’s September and Europe is back at work. There is much to discuss and to do. Problems abound. Europe faces a host of difficult challenges, many internal, some external — and next year is set to be even more challenging. Everyone is braced for an autumn and winter of discontent. The world kept turning as the EU took a long summer break. The war in Syria continued to wreak havoc, refugees fled devastation, the earthquake in Italy killed and injured many, there were suicide bombs in Yemen, Turkey and Kabul and strongmen in Russia, Turkey and the US thundered poison and venom.

And oh yes, there were the Olympics, bringing some relief and excitement in an increasingly angry, intolerant and difficult world. There was also a landmark peace deal in Colombia between the government and the main left-wing rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc), putting an end to one of the world’s longest-running insurgencies.

Europe reacted to the events of course — but internal difficulties took centre stage. Europe’s focus is on itself, its challenges and dilemmas. Certainly, many EU policymakers keep a close watch on global events. But in the end, for many, Europe comes first.

Even when it comes to taking a holiday. Its certainly good politics for European leaders to take their vacations in Europe. Trekking in the Alps rather than in the Himalayas shows that a European leader — like Britain’s new Prime Minister Theresa May — is careful with money and committed to Europe.

But staying close to home has its disadvantages. Staying inside the cosy European cocoon may be cheap, comfortable and familiar. But it leads to complacency. If EU leaders had travelled a bit further, say to Asia for instance, they would know that the EU star is rapidly losing its sparkle.

Europe has certainly been in the news over the summer. But the headlines have been less than flattering. Media across the world has focused on three key questions which unfortunately appear to define Europe in 2016: burkinis, borders and Brexit. Gone are the compliments and the glowing words, the soft focus on European cities, museums, and food, abiding admiration for European integration efforts, the noble pledge to steer clear of war and turmoil. No longer, no more.

Step outside Europe and its clear: the EU has lost its reputation and clout. It’s political, diplomatic and economic influence is slipping, its standing is in tatters. Forget talk about European values. A watching world knows very clearly that Europe has lost its mojo. And nobody is celebrating.

For most of the summer, France grabbed the headlines with its bizarre decision to ban so-called ‘burkinis’. Images of Muslim women being ordered to undress on French beaches caught the global imagination, triggering animated debates on what had happened to a country known for its commitment to “liberte, egalite and fraternite”.

The burkini was of course only the tip of the iceberg. As the country heads for presidential elections in 2017, the French debate on Islam is expected to become even fiercer, with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the xenophobic and anti-Muslim Front National, calling the shots and other politicians including the centre-right presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, frantically struggling to keep up.

The game in France over the coming months is going to be a simple one: who can sound tougher on Islam and Muslims. Le Pen is unlikely to become French president. But she will set the political agenda for the country and dominate the political discourse for months to come.

Which brings us to refugees and Europe’s ongoing struggle to deal with the large number of migrants and asylum seekers who keep knocking on its doors.

The EU once captured the headlines for its bold moves to eliminate borders to create a frontier free single market. The image now is of an EU determined to protect itself with barbed wire fences, armed policemen and more. This is especially the case in many eastern European states where restrictive new laws making life difficult for asylum seekers and refugees, anti-migrant rhetoric by decision makers and high-ranking politicians is commonplace.

Asylum seekers and refugees are called “intruders,” and “potential terrorists”, bent on destroying Western civilisation and Christianity. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban himself in July referred to migration as “poison”. Gyorgy Schopflin, a ruling party member with a seat in the European Parliament, suggested on Twitter that pigs’ heads should be placed on the border fence with Serbia to deter Muslim refugees from entering Hungary.

And then of course there is Brexit. The world can’t really believe that a country would willingly leave a much-coveted rich men’s club. And no one seems as confused as Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May.

Her mantra of “Brexit means Brexit” is beginning to ring hollow, not least because the government has yet to decide on just when to invoke “article 50” which will kick-start negotiations on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

Many including former premier Tony Blair seem to believe that Britain could change course either through a second referendum or new elections. But others denounce this as wishful thinking.

Who knows? Europeans once stood out for their post-modern values and aspirations, their ability to make friends with former enemies. That’s no longer the case. Europe in the autumn of 2016 appears fragile, fraught and afraid. And it may stay this way for most of next year.

In a crazy world, we need to daydream

So here I am surrounded by evil, wickedness and hate, the world going mad all at once and all I can think of is this: if only Freddie Mercury and Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan had lived long enough to sing together.

Call it escapism. Call it cracking under pressure, the demands of an exhausted mind demanding some respite, a moment of rest in an angry vicious world. There’s just so much a person can take.

The rest of the world is going crazy over Pokemon Go! But as I read, hear and watch the loonies take over the asylum, the mad men raging and ranting, I’ve started daydreaming. And often as the mind wanders, I wish Freddie and Nusrat could have come together to sing and ease our pain.

What a concert that would have been, the meeting of two musical titans, sublime singers whose voices would have touched our souls in so many different unexplained ways, reaching places no one else could reach. Not John Lennon, not Elvis, not even Prince. Any yes, not even Amjad Sabri.

I can imagine their voices merging and mingling, Freddie’s haunting vocals soaring higher and higher and then dipping low — and then, slowly but steadily, Nusrat Fateh Ali adding his magical, spiritual sweetness to the duet. I can hear them now, singing a mixture of ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ and ‘Dam Mast Qalandar’.

If only. My fantasy doesn’t last long. Both men are dead, their message of love and tolerance buried with them. So are Sabri, Lennon and others.

Instead of sweet music, we are doomed to listen to Donald Trump’s nasty rants. The man many once shrugged off as a freak show is now likely to be the next president of the United States. Interestingly, he is best friends with Vladimir Putin, the other tough guy on the block.

I’m sure it won’t be too long before both are bonding with that other angry middle-aged strongman, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, having escaped a military coup is now busy rounding up and punishing all and sundry. Oh yes, and there is talk of reinstating the death penalty.

Here in Europe, there are mad men aplenty too. Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban has described the arrival of asylum seekers in Europe as “a poison”, saying his country did not want or need “a single migrant”.

Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch far right Freedom Party told the Republican Party Convention in Cleveland that he is set to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands. “I don’t want more Muslims in the Netherlands…and I am proud to say that,” he told a cheering crowd of Americans.

To much applause, Britain’s new Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson lied and misled his way during the Brexit campaign that he headed. Nigel Farage, the xenophobic leader of the UK Independence Party has promised to help anti-EU protesters in France and other countries. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far right has become even more popular in the wake of recent terrorist attacks.

But there is hope yet. The world is not completely dark and dirty — at least not yet.

At their convention in Philadelphia, the Democrats called on Americans to reject what they called Trump’s politics of fear and division. It’s still not clear, however, if the message of hope and optimism offered by US President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton can successfully counter Trump’s toxic rhetoric.

The divisions in society run deep — and not only in the US. Europe too is deeply divided between those who live in a permanent state of apoplexy over their inability to cope with a rapidly changing world and those who are ready to go with the flow.

For the last few years, like many others, I have been silently thanking the universe for Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor whose ability to show grace under pressure makes her the only true leader in a very messy and chaotic Europe.

Just recently, Merkel delivered a staunch defence of her open-door policy towards refugees, insisting she feels no guilt over a series of violent attacks in Germany and was right to allow hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees to arrive last summer.

“A rejection of the humanitarian stance we took could have led to even worse consequences,” the German chancellor said. She repeated her wir schaffen das (we can manage it) mantra delivered last summer at the peak of the refugee crisis, adding: “We can manage our historic task — and this is a historic test in times of globalisation — just as we’ve managed so much already, we can manage it…Germany is a strong country.”

Interestingly, Merkel’s popularity remains high. In contrast, despite his hard-line response to terrorism and the extension of the national state of emergency, French President Francois Hollande remains intensely unpopular.

Go figure. Just when you think 2016 can’t get any worse, there is another terrorist attack and more innocent and gentle souls are killed.

As Freddie sang all those years ago: ‘this world could be heaven’. Sadly, tragically, it is not.

Lying is the new normal in the post-truth world

Is it just me or have politicians the world over really become nastier, more violent and more vengeful?

Perhaps it’s just a temporary phenomenon. Perhaps I’m feeling especially downbeat in the wake of Brexit, the terror attack in Nice, the attempted coup in Turkey, the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for US president and Boris Johnson’s appointment as Britain’s Foreign Secretary. And oh yes, let’s not forget Mrs Trump’s botched attempt at plagiarism.

Recently it seems that everywhere I look, every time I go online, every word uttered by politicians that I hear, propels me into an unpleasant new era dominated by liars, bullies and cheats.

This is a time when being a successful politician means being dishonest, where nastiness is rewarded with votes and where fear and hate have replaced the discourse of tolerance and hope.

It’s not just politicians who lie and deceive of course — more and more everyone appears to have succumbed to the temptation. But while lying by ordinary people is hurtful and harmful, lying politicians are more dangerous because they are changing our world.

The transformation has been rapid. The “new normal” has come upon as almost unnoticed, changing our politics and with it our world in the blink of a Twitter feed.

It really has happened fast. Only a few years ago calling a politician a liar was the ultimate insult. When just like thieves, lying politicians were outcast by society, becoming objects of contempt and disdain. They were unceremoniously booted out, their lies exposed, their careers in tatters.

And remember a time when honesty in a politician was admired and considered a virtue? Promises were meant to be kept and men and women in charge were judged by their word. Just like ordinary fold, they were taught to speak the truth and never, ever cheat, whether at school, in the playground or in the family.

And facts. Remember when facts were important, nay even crucial in political discussions? Facts and figures — data and statistics — determined our views, informed our decisions and shaped our discourse. Elections were fought on the basis of correct, verifiable information.

Finally, think back to a time when politicians were polite and that mattered. People who were respectful and courteous were admired and looked up to as social models. Having good manners was an asset in society. Just like children, the people in power were taught to say “please and thank you”. And oh yes, they often also said “sorry”.

That was then. Today, more than half-way into 2016, it’s official: truth, vows, facts and manners are out. Lies, dishonesty, rudeness and fiction are in.

A close scrutiny of the Brexit and Trump campaigns provides ample proof we are living in what many commentators describe as a “post-truth” era.

“In the post-truth era, borders blur between truth and lies, honesty and dishonesty, fiction and non-fiction. Deceiving others becomes a challenge, a game, and ultimately a habit,” says Ralph Keyes, author of The Post-Truth Era: Dishonesty and Deception in Contemporary Life.

For proof look no further than Trump’s election campaign, and reports that 76 per cent of Trump’s statements are rated either “mostly false”, “false”, or “pants on fire”, which is to say off-the-charts false. By comparison, Hillary Clinton’s total is 29pc.

Boris Johnson and the Leave campaign lied notoriously about many things, including the 350 million pounds that Britain was supposed to be sending to the EU every week and which could be channelled into the National Health Service.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may or may not be misinforming his citizens by linking the attempted coup to his arch-rival Fethullah Gulen but his vengeful rounding up and mistreatment of those involved — and threats of bringing back the death penalty — are worrying signs for a country which was once viewed as a much-needed inspiration for Muslim democracies.

The media is full of other examples of liars, including of course former British prime minister Tony Blair whose “conviction” that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction has been revealed to be false.

Interestingly, however, he isn’t repentant. In the 21st Century, politicians found to have misled and deceived others go on to become authors and much-coveted conference speakers. Or like Boris Johnson, they shrug it off as unimportant. Or like Trump, they rage and rant.

The post-truth era is facilitated by the social media where “misinformation” spreads like wildfire and most mainstream journalists have abdicated their role as fact-checkers, preferring instead to swallow deceptions and lies without much questioning.

Bullies, ranting and lying politicians are certainly not just a phenomenon of the West. Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America have more than their share of deceitful men and women who have turned lying into a long-standing political art form.

In the past, once unmasked, liars and cheats in the West beat a fast retreat. Today, they are foreign ministers and leaders of political parties - and possibly one of them could become the next leader of the “free world”.

No time to waste in crafting a new narrative for Europe

Post-Brexit Britain is changing fast as key Leave campaigners scurry off the stage, political parties start the tortuous process of selecting new leaders and ordinary citizens grapple with the myriad ramifications of the June 23 decision.

The Leave vote is also impacting on the European Union in many, complicated and yet-to-be identified, ways. The separation or divorce is going to be long and painful. There may even be a last-chance attempt at reconciliation.

Some things, however, look set to stay the same.

Britain’s historic decision to leave the EU has not changed European leaders’ chronic inability to respond to crises with grace and dignity. Britain’s political class has sullied its reputation even further while EU leaders have become entangled — once again — in power struggles and premature battles over the future of an EU of 27 states.

Brexit has not prompted much-needed soul-searching on the EU’s failure to connect, respond and interact with citizens, especially younger ones. And, sadly, as illustrated by the failure of the Remain campaign, it has not yet sparked a serious reflection on crafting a positive EU story for the 21st Century.

Old habits die hard. But now more than ever, if it is to thrive, flourish and exert influence in an increasingly cut-throat world, the EU urgently needs an inspirational new narrative in step with the changing times.

The truth is that Europe does have a convincing story to tell. But it has no one to tell it.

The massive pro-EU demonstration in London on July 2 is proof that Europe resonates and matters. It matters not just to the vocal segment of the 48 per cent of Britons who voted to stay in the EU but also to those who were misled by the lies and myths propagated by the Leave camp and are now having second thoughts.

It matters to young people who feel betrayed by an older generation which voted to withdraw from the EU — and to the others who may not have cast their ballot but now wish they had. It matters to ethnic minorities who face an unacceptable increase in racial and religious abuse in the wake of the referendum.

Most importantly, Europe matters to millions of other European voters who will be going to the polls in the coming months in France, Germany and elsewhere and who may be enticed into voting for Frexit or Nexit if referendums are called in France and the Netherlands by far right leaders Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, respectively.

Crafting a new EU story requires more than just countering the lies, misinformation and toxic myths being disseminated by far right and populist politicians. Relying on facts and figures to get the message across is important — but not enough. The success of the Leave campaigners shows that in the midst of fear and hate, facts don’t matter — until it is too late.

What counts are leaders with passion who can get others to listen to them and stay on message. Interestingly, rare but convincing and passionate calls for Remain were made in the last three days ahead of the UK referendum by Scottish Conservative Ruth Davidson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan in a televised debate with Leave’s leading campaigner Boris Johnson.

The EU story needs to be recounted by those who believe in what they are “selling” and know how to discuss, engage and connect with people. A European narrative disseminated half-heartedly as it was by many, including outgoing British Prime Minister David Cameron, just cannot do the trick.

Drafting a new EU narrative also requires a shift away from listening exclusively to the shrill clamour of the populists to also paying attention to the calmer voice and the aspirations of those Europeans who want — and are working to create — a more tolerant, open and inclusive Europe.

The pro-EU banners and placards carried at the recent massive rally in London should provide inspiration for writers of the new EU story. So should the actions of the many ordinary people, non-governmental organisations, businesses and mayors who are going out of their way in many parts of Europe to welcome refugees and migrants with food, shelter and jobs. Their stories are hardly ever told. And yet they — not just the far right that all politicians pander to — are also part of Europe’s “reality”.

Populists are certainly a threat to Europe’s values and to European democracy. But so are mainstream political parties which have embraced their message. The EU’s so-far fractious and incoherent response to Brexit is not going to endear it to citizens.

As it heads into uncharted waters, the EU needs to highlight what is good, constructive and positive about Europe. And it needs to do so with courage, conviction and self-confidence — and with leaders who show grace under fire. Nothing else will work.

Brexit’s EU shake-up and the global fall-out

Brexit has certainly shaken the European Union. But apart from the mess over the timing, pace and substance of Britain’s EU divorce, no one should expect any other major changes in way the now-27 member bloc conducts itself. And, oh yes, don’t expect any rapid EU unravelling either.

True, there has been a spate of statements on the need for “political reflection to give an impulse to further reform”. The foreign ministers of France and Germany have talked in a heady fashion of their vision for further steps in the direction of a political union. And there’s even a brand new EU “global strategy” articulating the bloc’s vision for dealing with the world outside.

The far right, meanwhile, is predictably gloating over the “Leave EU” message delivered by British voters and demanding similar national referenda on EU membership in their countries. Europe’s populists will certainly continue to make gains in elections in the coming years. But the likelihood of other EU referenda is slim.

Similarly, those vowing to show that the Union is strong and unchanged by Britain’s withdrawal and that the EU will push on without the presence of Britain as the perennial naysayer, the sceptic and the doubter are on the wrong track. The truth is different.

Britain’s objections focused on the EU’s overly ambitious plans a further pooling of sovereignty and the bloc’s failure to hammer out a rational and fair immigration policy. These are also opposed by many other EU states, not just Britain.

On questions related to the further development of the EU single market, Britain was usually in the vanguard of states wanting the removal of internal barriers. On trade, it took a strong anti-protectionist line. And for all the anti-immigration talk, Britain’s multi-cultural landscape stands out in an EU where minorities are not as visible as they should and could be.

Europe’s internal divisions are not about to disappear. The squabbling and wrangling over the EU’s future will continue — perhaps even become shriller. There is no guarantee that the advice to act responsibly given to the EU by US Secretary of State John Kerry will be heard.

What Brexit has done, however, is create uncertainty on global financial markets triggered by the fall in the value of the pound. Some of Asia’s biggest economies have warned that Brexit could cast a shadow over the world economy for years to come.

Global business leaders are already rethinking their export and investment strategies to take account of Britain’s imminent departure from the EU.

More is at stake, however. The EU has long inspired nations across the globe with its message of reconciliation among former adversaries and as a project for peace and stability. In varying ways and to varying degrees, many have also looked to Europe in their own quest for regional integration and cooperation.

That reputation has now taken a body blow. Both Britain and the EU appear diminished to a closely watching world. Those opposed to regional cooperation are likely to take heart from the EU’s difficulties. But it would be unfortunate if the EU crisis puts the brakes on other regions’ plans for integration.

Significantly, none of the EU’s foreign partners — except Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for US president and possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin — is applauding.

Much will depend on how British and EU leaders conduct themselves over the coming weeks and months. Britain’s pro-Leave campaigners have already sullied the country’s reputation by misinforming and misleading their citizens and by fanning the fires of hatred and racism. It will be tough to correct their mistakes — if that is indeed what the next British Brexit government intends to do.

EU leaders, meanwhile, face a stark choice: they can either listen to and respond to the real concerns of their citizens, including on immigration, and seek a dignified response to the latest crisis. Or — as many fear — they can engage in yet more squabbling over Europe’s future direction.

The route they take will determine whether or not other eurosceptic movements will become even stronger in the days ahead and present their own blueprints for an EU exit.

Europe’s response will be watched carefully not just by the US where fears are growing of a Trump victory in the November presidential elections but also by China, India, Japan and Europe’s other important partners which have invested heavily in Britain as a “gateway” to Europe.

No responsible global power wanted Britain to leave the EU and today no major country wants the EU to unravel. True, some countries may want to negotiate new trade pacts with Britain — but as the US and India have warned, such discussions will not be their top priority. The EU is a much larger trading bloc than Britain — and will continue to count for more on world stage.

For Europe’s trading partners Britain’s absence will be especially felt in EU discussions on trade agreements, whether bilateral free trade accords such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) or the wider multilateral trading system. London has taken a strong stance in favour of granting market economy status to China. It has also been among the lead players in the EU’s trade relations with many South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The departure of Britain as the EU’s prime military power, is going to hit hard at a time when Europe is trying to push its security credentials, especially in Asia. A new EU “global strategy”, which cannot rely on and use Britain’s wide network of global partners, will appear less impressive.

In the end, however, once the market turmoil is over and the reality of Brexit sinks in, it is the blow to the EU’s reputation as an agent for change and transformation which will resonate most strongly across the world.

Europe’s real crisis comes from its eastern members, not Brexit

Europe's multiple crises have become the stuff of legend. They dominate the headlines, cast a dark shadow over the EU’s daily life, make EU leaders squirm in discomfort and colour the bloc’s relations with the rest of the world.

Where to begin? There’s the continuing eurozone crisis, with Greece still being squeezed on all fronts, Spain and Portugal struggling to make ends meet and the rest of the currency zone mired in stagnation.

There’s high unemployment across the bloc, with jobless rates over 50 per cent for young people in Spain.

There’s the continuing influx of refugees and migrants seeking to escape war and conflict in the Middle East, Afghanistan and many African countries. And the surge in refugee numbers has in turn triggered an increase in support for far right parties.

And then there’s Brexit. As Britain goes to the polls on June 23 to vote for leaving or staying in the EU, the Brexit debate looms large not just over Britain but also over the rest of the EU.

The discussion veers towards hysteria in the UK, where the Conservative Party is embroiled in an open civil war over the issue and public opinion remains polarised on whether being a member of the EU is good or bad for Britain.

Many fear that if Britain leaves the bloc, other equally restless political groups will begin clamouring for an exit as well, prompting the beginning of the end of Europe.

Yes, Brexit, migration, slow growth and unemployment are major problems facing the EU. They weigh heavy on the minds of Europe’s great and the good.

But the real threat to Europe’s future isn’t often discussed — and if it is, the talk is hushed and fearful.

The danger Europe faces does not come from across the Channel — it comes from the east, from several former communist countries which joined the EU with great aplomb in 2004 and which today are challenging the spirit and the soul of the EU.

The EU’s eastward enlargement was celebrated as a victory of democracy over authoritarian rule and a celebration of the spread of liberal ideas across vast swathes of eastern and central Europe.

But it looks like the bad times are back. Many in western Europe bemoan the emergence of indecent and illiberal democracies in the east as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland — the so-called Visegrad group — thumb their nose at their western neighbours by refusing to fall into line on questions like immigration and openly defy EU institutions on freedom of the media and the rule of law.

In recent months, all four countries have been the most vocal opponents of the EU response to the migration crisis. Hungary and Slovakia have been criticised for their anti-immigrant rhetoric.

Their leaders’ talk has often verged on Islamophobia as they have rejected calls to welcome refugees from the Middle East. Some have built fences to keep the refugees out.

Their words and actions echo those of Europe’s xenophobic and anti-immigrant far right parties — but unlike far right leaders who are outside government, the leaders of the Visegrad group are full-fledged members of the European Council.

Having failed to prevent Hungary from moving toward illiberal policies since Viktor Orban was elected prime minister in 2010, the Commission is taking a tougher stand against Poland which is under a European Commission investigation into the state of the rule of law after controversial constitutional reforms.

The unprecedented EU move — based on a so-called “rule of law framework” adopted in 2014 — is designed to tackle the threat posed by quasi-authoritarian regimes within the EU.

It follows criticism that while the EU is tough with countries outside the EU and those negotiating to join the club, once countries become EU members there is little that can be done to stop them from breaking basic EU rules.

The EU action on rule of law could lead to sanctions against Poland, including the country being stripped of EU voting rights.

But far from showing any remorse for violating European values, leaders of the four countries insist that they are setting the standards for the rest of Europe.

Czech premier Bohuslav Sobotka, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Poland’s Beata Szydlo stood proudly together after a summit in Prague last week to underline they were winning the battle of ideas in Europe.

Szydlo and Orban were the clearest in describing central and eastern Europe as a model rather than as a troublemaker, with Orban saying the region is the “most stable region in terms of economy and politics”.

There are several ironies in the saga. First, even as they refuse to take in migrants and refugees from the Middle East, Polish, Hungarian and other eastern European nationals are part of huge migrant populations in western Europe.

Second, it is the increase in the number of migrants from eastern European states — especially Bulgaria and Romania but also from Poland — which is part of the toxic Brexit debate on immigration in Britain.

Third, Slovakia is set to take over the six-month presidency of the EU Council as of July 1 this year.

As such, Fico, whose anti-migrant rants still echo across Europe, will be in the driving seat of EU policies on crucial questions linked to the refugee and migration crisis over the next six months.

View from Abroad: Can’t live with EU — can’t live without EU (Originally published 30/05/2015 at dawn.com)

The European Union is gearing up for another bout of prolonged, agonising and internal soul-searching.Reflection on Europe’s future, its identity and role in a rapidly changing world is certainly necessary. But the European landscape has become increasingly complicated, making it imperative that even as it ponders over its future, the EU deals with the many crises on its borders — and beyond.Also, at a time when unity is a compelling necessity, many of the 28 EU countries often appear to be headed in different and often contradictory directions.Take a look: Cameron calls for ‘flexible and imaginative’ EU reformsThere is no denying that triggered by demands by Britain’s newly re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron for an across the board overhaul of key EU priorities, the bloc looks set to enter another period of deep introspection on its future direction, main concerns and general raison d’etre.Britain will hold a referendum — probably next year — on whether it should remain in the EU. But London is not alone in envisaging a withdrawal from the Union.There is also dangerous talk of a Greek exit from the Eurozone as Athens struggles to meet its massive financial obligations vis-à-vis its international lenders.Meanwhile, Poland has elected a conservative new president, Andrzej Duda, while Spain seems to have voted in the opposite — leftist — direction in recent regional elections.In addition, the European economy remains mired in stagnation. Jobs remain scarce across the bloc while the debate on immigration and reception of refugees becomes ever more toxic and complex.Ironically, even as Europeans wring their hands in despair over their many interrelated problems, countries outside the bloc can’t wait to get in.Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have joined the long list of countries which want a so-called “road map” leading up to membership of the EU.They are not going to get any such thing. At a meeting in Riga last week, the EU made clear that while it wanted closer relations with the three countries — and despite the growing influence of Russia in the region — EU membership was not on the cards.Also in Europe, the leaders of six Western Balkan countries have told the EU that they are becoming impatient with their long wait to join the bloc and needed EU funds to keep up reforms.The prime ministers of Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania, all hoping to join the bloc, have said their cooperation should be rewarded with projects like new road and rail links.Slovenia and Croatia are the only countries in the region to have joined the EU. The others have lagged behind because of conflicts with neighbours after the break-up of Yugoslavia and a failure to achieve reform.And then there is Turkey which is still waiting on the sidelines, anxious to become an EU member but unlikely to become one any time in the future.For the moment, all eyes are on Britain and Prime Minister Cameron’s calls for a renegotiation of the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon, the latest version of its constitution.Many EU countries are sympathetic to Britain’s demands for an overhaul of the EU — but do not want another long, difficult and complicated treaty negotiation.Details of what Britain really wants are still deliberately sketchy. But, some salient demands stand out.First, Cameron wants Britain to opt out from the EU ambition to forge an “ever closer union” of the peoples of Europe.He wants to restrict access to the British labour market of EU migrants.And he would like to free business from red tape and “excessive interference” from Brussels and providing access to new markets through “turbo charging” free trade deals with America and AsiaFinally, he says Britain would resist any move towards a European army and has ruled out Britain joining the euro.Controversially, Cameron has said that while British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK will be eligible to vote, nationals from other EU countries residing in the UK will not.Very few EU leaders would like Britain to leave the bloc. Britain’s membership of the EU is good for both Britain and other European states.But many in Brussels and other EU capitals are becoming increasingly frustrated with the tone and content of the toxic British debate on Europe.As a result, many are warning that Britain may have to leave in order to ensure the survival of the EU.The prospect of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is equally problematic, with many worried of the repercussions of such a move on the credibility of the single currency.Still, while things may look very complicated for those inside the EU, membership of the club remains a goal for many of the EU’s neighbours. As Turkey has learned, however, getting a seat at the EU table is not easy. It requires hard work, time and effort — and a great deal of patience.

View from abroad: When it comes to Hungary, Europe should practise what it preaches (Originally published 09/05/2015 at dawn.com)

Believe it or not, there is more to the European Union than the recent elections in Britain and London’s erratic and volatile relationship with Brussels.The EU is also not just about the dire financial and economic straits in which Greece finds itself — and unrelenting speculation about whether or not Athens is ready to exit the troubled Eurozone.In addition to fears of a Brexit and Grexit, Berlin is mired in a new spying scandal which threatens to engulf German Chancellor Angela Merkel.And, of course, the EU is under attack over its less-than-impressive response to the humanitarian tragedy unfolding on its southern shores as hundreds of refugees and economic migrants drown even as they seek to enter “Fortress Europe”.The EU’s southern and eastern neighbourhoods are in turmoil. Relations with Russia remain tense and EU governments have no influence over events in the Middle East.These and other troubles facing the 28-nation bloc capture the media spotlight and lead to endless hand-wringing over the EU’s future.All of these troubles deserve attention. But, interestingly, neither the media nor EU policymakers appear to be paying serious attention to a country — Hungary — whose leaders appears intent on defying many of the key values — human rights, democracy and tolerance — that the EU holds so dear.It is an important paradox. The EU wields enormous power over countries which are seeking membership of the 28-nation club. But once a so-called “candidate country” joins the Union, Brussels loses much of its influence over the future direction of a “member state”.This is exactly what has happened with Hungary and some other “new” EU countries which joined the Union earlier this decade.Before it entered the EU club, Hungary had to meet very strict criteria on issues like democracy and adherence to the principles of a market economy. Human rights standards had to be adhered to. Every move made by the government was scrutinised and judged.No longer. Hungary is now accused of a host of sins — and while Brussels often chides and scolds, it has little — actually it has NO — power to change the course of events in the country.There is no doubt: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the bad boy of Europe. He cultivates close links with President Vladimir Putin at a time when the rest of the EU is seeking to distance itself from the mercurial Russian leader.Putin’s visit to Hungary earlier this year was widely seen as a defiance of the EU’s decision to keep cool diplomatic relations with Russia.More controversially, Orban has sent shock waves across the EU by insisting that the bloc should protect its borders against immigration by using military force because it doesn’t need new migrants.While other EU leaders in Brussels struggled to come up with a coherent plan to stem the tide of immigrants seeking shelter in Europe, Orban urged tougher measures.“Europe’s borders must be protected. We cannot be like a piece of cheese with holes in it so that they [immigrants] can be crossing in and out. Serious police and military steps must be taken and also steps that they remain at home,” he said.Going even further, Orban said the Hungarian government wanted to be able to detain all those who cross borders illegally, something that is only allowed in exceptional cases under EU law. It also wanted to have migrants work to cover the costs of their accommodation or detention in Hungary.In a questionnaire to be sent out to eight million citizens over 18 years of age, Hungarians will be asked to answer 12 questions on whether “the mismanagement of the immigration question by Brussels may have something to do with increased terrorism”.“The questions are leading and manipulative,” according to Dutch MEP Sophie In’ t Veld who said the whole questionnaire was “horrible”. Her colleague Cecilia Wikstrom, a Swedish liberal MEP, said it showed how Orban is distancing Hungary from Europe and “transforming Hungary into a mini-Russia”.There are suggestions that Orban, whose Fidesz party has seen a plunge in polls recently, is seeking to embrace issues championed by the far-right Jobbik party, the largest opposition force in Hungary.Hungary’s EU partners are equally vexed at the prime minister’s statements in favour of re-introducing the death penalty.Orban “should immediately make clear that this is not his intention. Would it be his intention, it would be a fight,” EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.Budapest has since then retracted Orban’s statements, saying it has no plans to restore the death penalty.Worryingly for Brussels, Orban has also staged an autocratic crackdown on the nation’s press, which the independent watchdog Freedom House now ranks as only “partly free”.While the EU has so far managed to keep Hungary in check, the country is a worrying example of how things can go very wrong in the heart of Europe and the European Union.EU officials and members of the European Parliament rant and rave about Hungary and Orban but the stark truth is that while the EU wields a huge stick before a country joins the club — demanding changes in government rules and regulations and overall conduct — its influence dims once a country becomes a member.So, while the talk in Brussels is understandably about Britain, Greece and Germany, it is time that EU leaders exerted some real pressure to bring Hungary in line with Europe’s standards of conduct.It’s about consistency, coherence in the EU and above all making sure that Europe practices what it preaches to the rest of the world.