VIEW FROM ABROAD: Turkey and EU (Originally published 10/10/2015 at Dawn.com)

Crises can result in strange bedfellows. Having criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “authoritarian” ways, European Union leaders are now turning to the Turkish leader to help ease the unprecedented influx of refugees on to EU territory.As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg: “In the refugee crisis, Turkey and the EU walk together and work together.”Not surprisingly Erdogan is making the most of it. The Turkish president has not endeared himself to democrats and human rights activists at home or abroad with his clampdown on the media, arrest of opponents, the crackdown on civil society protests, lavish spending on his official residence and other actions, including targeting of Syrian Kurdish strongholds.Relations between the EU and Turkey have been on the backburner for several years as the 28-nation bloc has fretted and sweated at the rollback of reforms in a country which is a candidate to join the EU.EU membership negotiations have been put on hold. Turkey has sulked, saying its interests lie to its east, not the west.The EU has raged against Ankara’s disregard for European values. Relations are still strained. But both Turkey and the EU are more vulnerable than in the past.Ankara’s dreams and ambitions of becoming an indispensable regional player have been destroyed by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s refusal to listen to Turkey. As a result, Erdogan’s influence in the region is not as potent as it was a few years ago.Europe’s many vulnerabilities are common knowledge. Even as Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has opened the borders to refugees from Syria, the sudden and massive arrival of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers has eroded public and political support for the move.And so to the negotiating table where Erdogan and the EU engage in horse-trading over the fate of refugees from Syria and other countries in conflict even as they try to put their own relations back on track.According to media reports, the Europeans are offering eventually to take half a million Syrians from new refugee and asylum-processing camps they would co-fund in Turkey in return for Ankara tightening its borders to stop people being smuggled in hazardous vessels to Greece, and agreeing to take back migrants who make it “illegally” to Europe via Turkey.As part of any possible pact, Erdogan is asking for a relaxation in visa requirements for Turks travelling to Europe. He also wants the EU to list Turkey as “a safe third country”, effectively whitewashing Ankara’s increasingly repressive policies and deteriorating human rights and media freedoms record.“Europe has to manage its borders better. We expect Turkey to do the same,” said Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, following talks with Erdogan. “The situation where hundreds of thousands are fleeing to the European Union from Turkey must be stopped.”Erdogan responded that Ankara was hosting almost 10 times as many Syrian refugees as the EU. While open to talks with Brussels, he said the key to stopping the flow of refugees was to establish a no-fly zone over the Turkish-Syria border and a buffer zone in northern Syria.This is viewed as a non-starter in Europe and in Washington, but Tusk said: “The European Union is ready to take up all issues with Turkey so we can also discuss a possible buffer zone in Syria.”Turkey is home to two million Syrian refugees and is the source of most of the influx into Europe of recent months. A pact with Turkey is now seen as the key to the effort to turn chaos into control.The aim is to have the Turks and the Greeks mount joint border controls at sea, organised by Frontex, the EU’s borders agency and that intercepted boat people be turned back to Turkey.Meanwhile, in an unusual joint appeal, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have urged European politicians to pull together amid multiple crises in a bid to heal EU divisions caused by the influx of refugees, debt crises and encroaching nationalist sentiment.In separate addresses to the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, both leaders underlined the risks now besetting the EU’s 28 nations.“The debate is not about less Europe or more Europe,” Mr Hollande told politicians, evoking the question of national sovereignty besetting member nations. “It is about the affirmation of Europe or the end of Europe. Yes, the end of Europe.”Chancellor Merkel, who has come forward as the champion of refugees flowing into Europe, said overcoming the refugee crisis together is a key challenge for the European Union.“It is precisely now,” she said, “that we need more Europe ... If we overcome that, we will be stronger after the crisis than before.”It was the first such joint appearance in Strasbourg since 1989, when West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and French president Francois Mitterrand spoke days after the fall of the Berlin Wall.“In the refugee crisis we must not succumb to the temptation of falling back into acting in nationalistic terms,” said Ms Merkel, standing next to French President Hollande, adding: “National solo efforts are no solution to the refugee crisis.”Significantly even as the two EU leaders were speaking in Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that a combined EU naval mission known as EU Navfor Med will now be able “to board, search and seize vessels in international waters, [after which] suspected smugglers and traffickers will be transferred to the Italian judicial authorities”.Yes, Europe is confused, overwhelmed and uncertain about what to do next. President Erdogan, in contrast, knows exactly what he wants: respect and recognition from a Europe that has too often disregarded Turkey as an important ally. And, ultimately, Turkish membership of the 28-nation European Union.

View from abroad: It’s official: the EU is in a mess (Originally published 12/09/2015 at Dawn.com)

The 28-member bloc is in disarray, beset by crises, member governments are squabbling, people are angry and disenchanted, leaders are mostly querulous and hesitant — and sometimes outrageously odious.This isn’t just the opinion of just any EU watcher or EU insider; it’s the point of view of Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body.“The European Union is not in a good state,” Juncker told the European Parliament in his first-ever “State of Europe” address this week. “There is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough union in this Union.”Unusually for a politician, Juncker did not mince his words during his hour-long speech to the 700 plus EU parliamentarians. It was time, he said for honesty.And he was certainly honest, refreshingly so. In fact, frighteningly so. Like most people, I’ve become used to untruthful politicians, men and women to whom lying comes naturally, automatically.This is especially true for anyone in an official position who is asked to comment on his/her country’s political future, economic prospects or social challenges.Market turmoil, economy in danger? China’s leaders don’t seem to think so. At a conference in Dalian last week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was adamant that Chinese markets were stable and potential systemic financial risks have been forestalled. Recent troubles were just due to “rumour mongers” and other nasties.India, meanwhile, is talking up its shining economic future and readiness to overtake China despite evidence that the economy is in desperate need of reform and growth.Politicians in the US still brag that their country is a “superpower” despite evidence that no one believes it any more.And at a recent seminar in Brussels, a Pakistani diplomat waxed lyrical about the country’s respectful treatment of women and efforts to empower them while people looked on in disbelief.Of course everybody takes such blatant hyperbole with a huge chunk of salt. We roll our eyes, shut off the TV, shout obscenities at the liars.Which is why Juncker’s speech took many by surprise. Yes, there were some hecklers from the Far Right in the European assembly but mostly the intervention — long and rambling at times — prompted respect for its brutal assessment of 21st century Europe — and Juncker’s recipe for changing things.The Commission chief was especially honest in his references to Europe’s refugee crisis and governments’ response to it.At a time when many EU leaders continue to waiver on Europe’s responsibilities towards the hundreds of thousands of refugees seeking shelter in Europe, Juncker made clear that Europe had a moral obligation to help those fleeing war, terror and oppression.“We Europeans should remember that Europe is a continent where nearly everyone has at one time been a refugee. Our common history has been marked by millions of Europeans fleeing from religious or political persecution from war, dictatorship or oppression,” Juncker underlined.It is a theme that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has dwelt on repeatedly over the last few weeks. Germany’s welcome of refugees may be rooted in its history but it certainly puts other EU leaders — especially in Britain and in Central and Eastern European countries — to shame.And it looks likely that while many countries have more or less grudgingly accepted more newcomers on their territories, Juncker and Merkel’s calls for compulsory quotas for the resettlement of refugees in the 28 countries will continue to run into opposition from Britain, Hungary, the Czech Republic and others.Meanwhile, following a moment of unusual silence, Europe’s Far Right groups have once again found their poisonous voice. The Netherlands’ leading Muslim-hater Geert Wilder has warned that the refugees represent an “Islamic invasion” of Europe.In France, Wilder’s counterpart Marine Le Pen has decided that “99 per cent” of the refugees coming to Europe are men who are making the journey for economic reasons. She made the statement as television images should pictures of joyful children arriving in Germany.Juncker — like Merkel — has warned against distinguishing between Jews, Christians and Muslims, saying there is “no religion, no belief, no philosophy when it comes to refugees”.There were also tough words on Greece and the need for economic reform to bring back confidence in the economy and among Greeks.And he voiced support for a “fair deal for Britain” as the country prepares to hold its referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017.Finally, Juncker urged EU states to be united in trying to shore up Ukraine while also engaging with Russia.EU governments’ response to Euro troubles in Greece and the refugee crisis has indeed spotlighted a disunited, squabbling Europe. Yes, the EU is the world’s most successful — and inspirational — example of deep regional integration, with a single currency shared by 19 countries, and 26 nations agreeing to scrap their national borders through the “Schengen” agreement.But Greece almost brought about the unraveling of the Eurozone. And the mass cross-border movement of refugees is threatening the Schengen pact. On foreign and security policy, divisions among the 28 countries are ever-visible.While the world watches closely and with concern, the EU will have to tread carefully in the coming months to preserve its many achievements and strive for more.

View from abroad: Not everyone wants Fortress Europe (Originally published 29/08/2015 at Dawn.com)

Throughout the summer, the headlines have reflected the heart-wrenching reality of Europe’s worsening refugee crisis.The messy, incompetent and often cruel response to the influx of embattled men, women and children arriving on its territory is a huge blot on Europe’s reputation. It is also a source of disappointment for many who believed in the creation of an open, more tolerant society and thought Europeans had learned the lessons of a shameful, tragic past.Alas, many have not. The hostile reaction of governments in Britain, Hungary, Slovakia and others to the refugees arriving in Europe from war-devastated countries illustrates a callousness, intolerance and indifference that many hoped would never be seen again in Europe.News from the different “fronts” in the crisis — the Mediterranean sea, the scene of many shipwrecks and deaths, the Balkans where desperate refugees are using land routes to reach Europe and Calais where thousands are stuck in a no-man’s land between France and Britain — continues to dominate the media, elbowing out news of Eurozone troubles, including early elections announced by Greece.The focus is on the harsh statements and even harsher actions by European nations. British Prime Minister David Cameron infamously referred to “swarms” of immigrants while his foreign secretary Philip Hammond warned of “marauding migrants” on Europe’s doorsteps. Meanwhile, the huge camp of refugees seeking entry into Britain set up in Calais in France is kept in check by a swelling police presence and more fences.Many governments, especially in the former Communist central and eastern European states are gearing up for military action to keep out the desperate people on their doorsteps. More and higher fences are being erected. Some countries such as Slovakia and others in Eastern Europe have said openly that they will only take in a limited number of refugees — and only those they can identify as Christian. Not surprisingly, the refugee crisis dominated a summit on the western Balkans attended by EU leaders last week.United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has urged countries “in Europe and elsewhere to prove their compassion and do much more to bring an end to the crisis”. The thousands of migrants and refugees who brave perilous journeys “should not, when they arrive, encounter new challenges”, Ban said during a visit to Paris.Yes, the crisis has brought out the worst in Europe. But — at least in some cases — it has also brought out the best.Take the governments in Italy and Greece which have been struggling to cope for months with the arrival of an ever-rising number of refugees, their appeals for a more equitable sharing-out of the “burden” rejected by other members of the European Union. Italians coastguards continue to save hundreds of endangered refugees on the high seas. While far-right groups in both countries are up in arms against the refugees, ordinary Italians and Greeks — suffering from their own Euro-imposed troubles — are providing food and shelter to the new arrivals.Even as Britain’s Cameron panders to the xenophobic sentiments of the anti-foreigner UK Independence Party, many British citizens are helping out in the Calais camp. And a letter from the Jewish Council for Racial Equality to Cameron says British Jews are appalled by Britain’s response to the situation in Calais. “Our experience as refugees is not so distant that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to be demonised for seeking safety,” the letter said, adding: “People fleeing conflict and persecution are not to blame for the crisis in Calais; neither is our welfare system, nor the French government. Above all, we in the UK are not the victims here; we are not being invaded by a ‘swarm’.”Most importantly, perhaps, Germany has emerged as the country most willing to welcome the new arrivals. As the country gears up to receive an unprecedented 800,000 refugees, many of them from Syria, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has lashed out against “vile” anti-migrant violence and warned: “There will be no tolerance of those who question the dignity of other people.”Public opinion appears to be largely behind her, with 60 per cent of Germans polled by public broadcaster ZDF saying that Europe’s biggest economy is capable of hosting the asylum-seekers.Desperately seeking a joint EU response to the crisis, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have said the refugees need to be distributed more equally among the 28 European Union countries, a demand backed by the European Commission. But there is strong opposition to such collective action from Britain and the eastern European states.Germany has in fact taken more than 40% of the Syrian refugees who have reached Europe; Sweden has taken another 20% and Greece, Italy and Spain account for another 25%.As the weeks drag on — and far right parties become ever more vocal in their anti-foreign rhetoric — the need for a joint EU response to the crisis will become more urgent. Merkel and a few others may worry about the erosion of European values — but others are busy building the walls and fences required to secure Fortress Europe.

Shada Islam quoted in ‘Greek Deal Makes Europe More German. But at What Cost?’ (Bloomberg 13/07/2015)

Europe’s deal with Greece was variously denounced as blackmail, an attack on national sovereignty and an end to the European dream. The accord’s detractors could at least agree on one thing: the chief culprit was Angela Merkel.Having held sway in the unequal struggle with Alexis Tsipras over the terms of a third bailout, Merkel has ensured that the 19-nation euro area remains a club whose members abide by the rules or are shown the door. The question is what toll that stance has taken on her reputation and the extent of the damage to the international standing of Germany and Europe.Shada Islam, director of policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said that months of EU acrimony since Tsipras’s election in January as Greek premier at the head of an anti-austerity coalition has tarnished the bloc in the eyes of both its own citizens and globally.“They reached a deal on Greece but at a huge cost,” Islam said by phone. “Merkel tried to play the middle ground but Schaeuble will be seen by some critics as the true villain of this piece.”Both Merkel and Schaeuble have become hate figures in Greece, where comparisons with the World War II occupation by Nazi forces have become commonplace. In Germany, members of Merkel’s coalition have competed for outrage against a backdrop of the constant drumbeat of calls by the best-selling Bild newspaper for Greece to be ejected from the euro.For the full article, visit:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/greek-deal-makes-europe-more-german-but-at-what-cost- 

View from abroad: When it comes to Hungary, Europe should practise what it preaches (Originally published 09/05/2015 at dawn.com)

Believe it or not, there is more to the European Union than the recent elections in Britain and London’s erratic and volatile relationship with Brussels.The EU is also not just about the dire financial and economic straits in which Greece finds itself — and unrelenting speculation about whether or not Athens is ready to exit the troubled Eurozone.In addition to fears of a Brexit and Grexit, Berlin is mired in a new spying scandal which threatens to engulf German Chancellor Angela Merkel.And, of course, the EU is under attack over its less-than-impressive response to the humanitarian tragedy unfolding on its southern shores as hundreds of refugees and economic migrants drown even as they seek to enter “Fortress Europe”.The EU’s southern and eastern neighbourhoods are in turmoil. Relations with Russia remain tense and EU governments have no influence over events in the Middle East.These and other troubles facing the 28-nation bloc capture the media spotlight and lead to endless hand-wringing over the EU’s future.All of these troubles deserve attention. But, interestingly, neither the media nor EU policymakers appear to be paying serious attention to a country — Hungary — whose leaders appears intent on defying many of the key values — human rights, democracy and tolerance — that the EU holds so dear.It is an important paradox. The EU wields enormous power over countries which are seeking membership of the 28-nation club. But once a so-called “candidate country” joins the Union, Brussels loses much of its influence over the future direction of a “member state”.This is exactly what has happened with Hungary and some other “new” EU countries which joined the Union earlier this decade.Before it entered the EU club, Hungary had to meet very strict criteria on issues like democracy and adherence to the principles of a market economy. Human rights standards had to be adhered to. Every move made by the government was scrutinised and judged.No longer. Hungary is now accused of a host of sins — and while Brussels often chides and scolds, it has little — actually it has NO — power to change the course of events in the country.There is no doubt: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the bad boy of Europe. He cultivates close links with President Vladimir Putin at a time when the rest of the EU is seeking to distance itself from the mercurial Russian leader.Putin’s visit to Hungary earlier this year was widely seen as a defiance of the EU’s decision to keep cool diplomatic relations with Russia.More controversially, Orban has sent shock waves across the EU by insisting that the bloc should protect its borders against immigration by using military force because it doesn’t need new migrants.While other EU leaders in Brussels struggled to come up with a coherent plan to stem the tide of immigrants seeking shelter in Europe, Orban urged tougher measures.“Europe’s borders must be protected. We cannot be like a piece of cheese with holes in it so that they [immigrants] can be crossing in and out. Serious police and military steps must be taken and also steps that they remain at home,” he said.Going even further, Orban said the Hungarian government wanted to be able to detain all those who cross borders illegally, something that is only allowed in exceptional cases under EU law. It also wanted to have migrants work to cover the costs of their accommodation or detention in Hungary.In a questionnaire to be sent out to eight million citizens over 18 years of age, Hungarians will be asked to answer 12 questions on whether “the mismanagement of the immigration question by Brussels may have something to do with increased terrorism”.“The questions are leading and manipulative,” according to Dutch MEP Sophie In’ t Veld who said the whole questionnaire was “horrible”. Her colleague Cecilia Wikstrom, a Swedish liberal MEP, said it showed how Orban is distancing Hungary from Europe and “transforming Hungary into a mini-Russia”.There are suggestions that Orban, whose Fidesz party has seen a plunge in polls recently, is seeking to embrace issues championed by the far-right Jobbik party, the largest opposition force in Hungary.Hungary’s EU partners are equally vexed at the prime minister’s statements in favour of re-introducing the death penalty.Orban “should immediately make clear that this is not his intention. Would it be his intention, it would be a fight,” EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.Budapest has since then retracted Orban’s statements, saying it has no plans to restore the death penalty.Worryingly for Brussels, Orban has also staged an autocratic crackdown on the nation’s press, which the independent watchdog Freedom House now ranks as only “partly free”.While the EU has so far managed to keep Hungary in check, the country is a worrying example of how things can go very wrong in the heart of Europe and the European Union.EU officials and members of the European Parliament rant and rave about Hungary and Orban but the stark truth is that while the EU wields a huge stick before a country joins the club — demanding changes in government rules and regulations and overall conduct — its influence dims once a country becomes a member.So, while the talk in Brussels is understandably about Britain, Greece and Germany, it is time that EU leaders exerted some real pressure to bring Hungary in line with Europe’s standards of conduct.It’s about consistency, coherence in the EU and above all making sure that Europe practices what it preaches to the rest of the world.

View from Abroad: Peshawar, Paris, Pegida and me (Originally published 10/01/2015 at dawn.com)

Just when you think it can’t get any worse, it does.On the second day of my long-awaited trip to Pakistan in December last year, I woke up to the news of the horrible massacre of school children in Peshawar.Like most people, I wept for the innocent lost lives, the bereaved families and a once honourable country which has lost its path, becoming mired in ever-more indecent violence and barbarism.As I made my way home to Brussels a few days into 2015, I was preparing to write about Pegida, Germany’s nascent and very toxic ‘anti-Islamisation’ movement which is making headlines across the globe.But then tragedy struck again as terrorists, unfortunately and wrongly, described as Islamists gunned down 12 people at the offices of Charlie Hebdo, the Paris-based satirical magazine.As France and the world mourned the dead and worried about the freedom of expression, diversity and tolerance, I asked myself: how many tears can you shed? How long and often can you weep? Will the hatred, violence and extremism ever end?I don’t know the answers but I know that whether we recognise the link or not, Peshawar, Paris and Pegida are, tragically, connected.I know that money, encouragement and support for the extremists whether in the Middle East, Pakistan, Asia or Europe can be traced to extremist Wahabi state and non-state actors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.I know that Far Right groups in Europe and the United States are spreading a hysterical and toxic anti-Islam message, gaining traction and popularity as the economic slowdown persists and unemployment continues to rise.I know that politicians in Europe, the US and the Muslim world are unwilling and unable to rise to the challenge of building a strong counter-narrative of tolerance and discrimination.I know that 2015 is going to be a defining, testing year for humanity’s ability to live together in peace while accepting differences in religion, colour and culture.I know that the violence-loving, gun-toting men and (some) women who kill, maim and torture are outside the boundaries of any religion. There is no “Islamic State”, only murderers and criminals. There is no “good” Taliban, just blood-thirsty barbarians.I know that just as is the case for freedom-loving people in Pakistan, life for Muslims in Europe is going to get tougher in the aftermath of the recent terrorist attacks.But I also know that sanity and good sense will probably and hopefully prevail in both Pakistan and Europe.In the end, it’s not the politicians who will stop the rot. It is the people, the ordinary men, women and young people who say “enough is enough” to violence and intolerance.I know it is possible. As we visited Lahore only hours before the massacre in Peshawar, girls and boys came up to us to talk and take pictures, giggling and chuckling, proud of Pakistan and their heritage.The Badshahi Mosque and the Lahore Fort sparkled in the sun but it was the laughter and the cheeky jokes of the young men and women that warmed our souls.This was Pakistan the way it really is, the way it should always be. Hours later as we tried to come to grips with the tragedy in Peshawar, I took solace in the hope I had seen in the eyes of the young people of Lahore.In Europe too, it is the people who will stop the continent from descending into a dangerous downward spiral of anti-Muslim sentiment.True, the Far Right is gaining momentum. Talk of a “clash of civilisations” is rife. But equally those who want a multicultural and tolerant Europe are speaking out.Pegida gatherings have been dwarfed by massive counter-demonstrations in Dresden, Berlin and Cologne where people have spoken in support of immigrants and condemned intolerance.The famous Cologne cathedral and Berlin’s Brandenburg gate have switched off lighting as a sign of protest against xenophobic rallies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against hate and discrimination.In the aftermath of the Paris killings, European governments will certainly clamp down hard on radicals and would-be terrorists. They are right to do so. But in the medium and long-term, European politicians must also focus on the compelling need to integrate and accept their Muslim citizens.Retribution and revenge must not be allowed to take centre stage. If it does, it will play into the hands of the extremists.This is a dangerous moment. Yes, it is war. But it not a conflict between Islam and the West. The battle being fought so cruelly is between people who believe in humanity and criminals and terrorists who, quite simply, want to kill.