11/18/14 11/18/14

2014 at dawn.com)

China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.

9/8/14 9/8/14

ASEM to discuss non-traditional security threats (Originally published 01/06/11)

Asia Europe Meetings meetings have so far focused on traditional threats to global and regional security, including the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programes, the Arab-Israel conflict and the situation in Afghanistan.But while world peace is still threatened by inter-state wars and military conflicts, competition for access to food and energy resources, water disputes, health pandemics and terrorism are emerging as equally potent threats to global security.They are also becoming increasingly central to the evolving international security agenda.“Non-traditional” security challenges are not new. In a rapidly globalizing and interdependent world, however, their impact can be felt not only within countries but also on a regional and international level.They spread fast – and if left to fester, can cause enormous societal havoc and regional and global tensions.ASEM foreign ministers’ discussions in Budapest on June 6-7, on “non-traditional” security issuesare therefore a good step forward in fostering stronger Asia-Europe engagement on tackling key 21stCentury challenges.Hungary, the current presidency of the 27-nation European Union and host of the ASEM meeting, has said foreign ministers will look at questions like energy security, food security, water security and supply, climate change, terrorism as well as disaster preparedness and management.In an increasingly interconnected world, made smaller through increased trade and improved technology, unilateral action cannot effectively deal with these new challenges. Multilateral responses, including within the ASEM framework, are therefore important.As a platform for informal exchange and discussion, ASEM is ideally suited to explore the nature, scope and fall-out of the new security challenges. ASEM also allowsthe sharing of experiences and expertise on possible solutions and coping mechanisms.The new, non-military security threats share some common features: they are transnational (that is neither purely domestic nor purely inter-state), emerge quickly and spread rapidly – within countries and on the regional and global levels.In addition to their impact on people, they can also have a far-reaching economic impact – on individual countries and on the global stage.The SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2002, the “Avian flu” in 2007 as well as HIV/AIDS are examples of how quickly diseases can spread in an era of rapid inter-continental travel, prompting not only human tragedy but also devastating countries’ health sectors and economies.Asian countries are aware that the region’s recurring problem of haze caused by environmental pollution and forest fires can exact a very high price in terms of human security as well as cause damage to health systems and the economy.Today, rising food prices are increasing inflationary pressures in many parts of the world while also stirring social unrest and impacting on progress made so far in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Asian and European countries have some experience in joint action to tackle food security, disaster response, piracy at sea and terrorism.Rising food prices were discussed at an ASEM meeting held in Hanoi last month.At the ASEM 8 summit last year, leaders agreed to an increased sharing of intelligence to track down and stop the funding of piracy operations off the coast of Somalia and stressed the need to prosecute suspected pirates.They also asked countries to criminalize piracy and armed robbery at sea in national legislations.The EUNAVFOR Atalanta mission, launched in December 2008 and counting up to 12 ships and patrol aircraft supplied by Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Greece, as well as non-EU member Norway, patrols the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin waters in conjunction with other anti-piracy missions operated by NATO and several Asian countries.ASEM experts on counter-terrorism and disaster-management meet regularly.However, more work is needed to identify and prioritise the new dangers, select institutions for responding to the expanding security agenda and work out linkages between traditional and non-traditional threats.Addressing human security issues will require that solutions are people-based, multilateral, and involve government, business and civil society.By providing an example of such multilateral cooperation, ASEM can help craft a new 21st Century global security agenda.

9/8/14 9/8/14

EU unity needed on Libya (Originally published 10/03/11)

European Union governments must not break ranks over how to end the prolonged crisis in Libya. They must also urgently agree on a new blueprint for stronger engagement with Egypt and Tunisia.Discord at the EU summit on March 11 or other meetings in the coming weeks will send a message of weakness and lack of resolve to Colonel Gaddafi, emboldening his supporters as they step up the offensive against rebels seeking his removal.Given the difficulties in getting a complete picture of the quickly changing situation in Libya – and different national concerns of the 27 EU states – Europe is not alone in struggling to find a coherent policy on Libya. The US is similarly divided on how best to tackle a very complex situation.European governments have imposed sanctions on Gaddafi and his family and sent millions of euros in humanitarian aid to refugees seeking to leave Libya. They remain rightfully wary of direct intervention, fearing entanglement in another prolonged war in the Middle East.In recent days, however, EU unity appears to be unravelling as member states set off in different directions.France has recognised the Libyan rebels as the country’s rightful representatives. The European Parliament says other European governments should do the same. Portugal, however, has held talks with an envoy despatched by Gaddafi, prompting Britain and German to insist that EU governments show pledge not to work or co-operate with Gaddafi. There is no EU agreement on setting up a no-fly zone although the UK and France are most clearly in favour of such a move.EU governments clearly need time to assess, reflect and consult on the right actions to take on Libya. But while they do so, they should avoid sending mixed signals to Gaddafi and his supporters.Urgent action is also needed on a new EU strategy for Egypt and Tunisia as well as other countries in the region.EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton has prepared a paper for the EU summit including measures that include more EU financial support, through the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developmnent, help with the training and exchange of students, the emergence of a vibrant civil society, more inclusive governance. Food security, further trade opening and mobility partnerships form part of the overall package.Ashton’s approach may be too modest and cautious for some but this is not the time to quibble over details. These can be worked out later, in cooperation with the new emerging leadership in these countries.Events in North Africa and the Middle East undoubtedly represent an enormous challenge for the EU. Oil prices are rising and there is concern about the number of North Africans seeking asylum in Italy and other southern European countries.Europe’s global reputation is also at stake. How Europe responds to events in the south will determine how it is perceived not only by its immediate neighbours but by EU-watchers in many other parts of the world.