View from abroad: Germany under more fire as Europe takes a summer break (Originally published 25/07/2015 at Dawn.com)

Fortunately, after a gruelling six months, Europe will soon be on vacation. The half-year of anguished and angry debate over the Greek financial crisis has left the 28-nation European Union bruised and battered. A deal of sorts has now been done to avert a Greek exit from the Eurozone. But, Europe’s morale is low, emotions are running high and nobody likes anyone any more.It’s time for a break. In time-honoured fashion, EU leaders are indeed heading off for a holiday to refresh, revive and re-energise. As of July 1, tiny Luxembourg is in the EU chair. But because August is Europe’s “dead” season, the EU will only come to life in September, giving Luxembourg a relatively short time at the helm.But, it doesn’t matter. In fact, nothing and no EU country really matters — except Germany.If there’s one thing that has become clear over the last half-year, it’s that Germany rules Europe — even, according to some, Germany is Europe or at least wants to shape Europe in its image.And not everyone likes it. Germany’s tough line on austerity and refusal to countenance debt relief for Greece may have won the admiration of some countries like the Netherlands, Finland and Slovakia but others are critical of Berlin’s unashamed bullying of Athens.Importantly, a majority of European and American economists — including experts at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — have made clear that Germany is on the wrong track, that a country which is already on its knees cannot be expected to immediately stand up tall and become even taller. In other words, Greece cannot be expected to pay its creditors and also notch up high economic growth rates.What a mess. Much-respected author Philippe Legrain has voiced his anger at the “brutal, vindictive and short-sighted exercise of German power against Greece”.“Let’s be clear,” warns Legrain: “What Berlin and Frankfurt [the seat of the European Central Bank] have done to Greece, they can — and they will — do to others.”Others are equally tough. Renowned economist and Noble prize-winner Paul Krugman has been equally vocal in his criticism of the austerity that has been imposed on Greece by Germany and others.There’s no doubt: Germany is the monetary union’s dominant economy, and its chancellor is the region’s dominant leader, with virtual veto power over Eurozone-wide decisions. That puts the spotlight squarely on Angela Merkel.Much of the critics’ ire is in fact directed at Merkel, who is viewed by many as a symbol of all that is harsh about Germany. But in truth, the German who everyone loves to hate is the hard-nosed finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, who once said that Greece “cannot be a bottomless pit”.German public opinion appears to be staunchly behind Merkel and Schauble with many Germans arguing that Greece is unworthy of their aid. “NEIN”, blasted a headline in the tabloid Bild earlier this year. “No more billions for greedy Greeks!” it insisted.What rankles for many is that Merkel and Schauble have played the unrelenting taskmasters, treating Greeks not as partners, but as spoiled children who could be set right only by the rod.There has even been talk of a Europe divided along religious lines, with a German Protestant belief in austerity and thrift contrasted with a Catholic/Orthodox tolerance for sinners — provided they repent.The Syriza party of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is not alone in bridling under German diktat. Gaining popularity in Spain, where unemployment is 22.5 per cent, is the leftist political movement Podemos, which also seeks a fairer deal from the rest of Europe. In Italy, Beppe Grillo, leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, has called for a referendum to decide if Italy should remain in the monetary union.There is no doubt that months of EU acrimony since Tsipras’s election in January as Greek premier at the head of an anti-austerity coalition has tarnished the bloc in the eyes of both its own citizens and globally.The bail-out agreed for Greece has come at a great cost to the EU’s reputation both at home and abroad. At the end Merkel tried to play the middle ground but Schauble will be seen by some critics as the true villain of this piece.Significantly, criticism — and envy — of Greece is not limited to Berlin’s conduct during the Greek crisis. Berlin is also under fire from its European partners for being too eager to cash in on last week’s nuclear deal with Iran.As this column underlined last week, Europeans are eager to get a piece of the economic action in Iran. Not surprisingly given Berlin’s commercial ambitions and outreach, the first EU policymaker to make his way to Tehran was Germany’s Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, ahead of the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius and other assorted European foreign ministers.Germany’s EU partners may slam Berlin for its economic bullying and high-handedness. But they also admire the country for its strong and effective economic diplomacy.It appears that when it comes to Germany, Europeans face an age-old dilemma: they find it difficult to live under Germany’s thumb, but they can’t really live without Berlin either.

Shada Islam quoted in ‘Greek Deal Makes Europe More German. But at What Cost?’ (Bloomberg 13/07/2015)

Europe’s deal with Greece was variously denounced as blackmail, an attack on national sovereignty and an end to the European dream. The accord’s detractors could at least agree on one thing: the chief culprit was Angela Merkel.Having held sway in the unequal struggle with Alexis Tsipras over the terms of a third bailout, Merkel has ensured that the 19-nation euro area remains a club whose members abide by the rules or are shown the door. The question is what toll that stance has taken on her reputation and the extent of the damage to the international standing of Germany and Europe.Shada Islam, director of policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said that months of EU acrimony since Tsipras’s election in January as Greek premier at the head of an anti-austerity coalition has tarnished the bloc in the eyes of both its own citizens and globally.“They reached a deal on Greece but at a huge cost,” Islam said by phone. “Merkel tried to play the middle ground but Schaeuble will be seen by some critics as the true villain of this piece.”Both Merkel and Schaeuble have become hate figures in Greece, where comparisons with the World War II occupation by Nazi forces have become commonplace. In Germany, members of Merkel’s coalition have competed for outrage against a backdrop of the constant drumbeat of calls by the best-selling Bild newspaper for Greece to be ejected from the euro.For the full article, visit:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/greek-deal-makes-europe-more-german-but-at-what-cost- 

View from Abroad: Europe and the new world order (Originally published 11/07/2015 at dawn.com)

Entangled in the Greek debt crisis, few European policymakers had the time or interest this week to pay attention to the summit talks in the Russian city of Ufa between the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).True, Europe has its hands full with Greece and the looming possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone. But the world doesn’t stop for Europe. And pretending that the BRICS and their self-confident leaders don’t matter — or matter little — is not an option.Discussions about the rapidly-transforming world, the role and influence of the BRICS and Europe’s relations with the emerging powers appear to be off the European Union agenda. For now, the focus is rightly on the existential threat posed by Grexit, the acrimony the Greek crisis has triggered across the EU and the worsening relationship among Eurozone leaders.Solving the Greek problem should of course take priority. But Europeans know that more is at stake. Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has so far been most vocal in signalling his fears that the fury unleashed by the difficulties in Greece is damaging the very existence of the EU. But this thought is also in many other minds. If Europe can’t get its house in order, it really does run the risk of becoming irrelevant on an increasingly crowded global stage.For the moment, most Europeans seem to fall into two categories: those who fear the rapidly-changing world order and the increasingly long list of nations clamouring for a stronger role on the world stage and those who hope that if they look the other way, firm up their bonds with the United States, the world won’t change too much and the BRICS will gradually fade away.There are some, wiser, people in the middle: they may not be enthusiastic about the changes being made to the global status quo; but they also know that times are changing fast and that Europe needs to adapt, adjust and accommodate.It was on the advice of such people that despite strong pressure from the US not to do so, several EU countries decided to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) set up by China.While many Europeans voice fear that China is “buying up” European assets, cooler heads are urging the EU to join forces with China’s ambitious ‘One Belt, One Road’ transport networks to boost domestic growth and jobs.Similar arguments for and against cooperating with emerging nations are likely to come to the fore as Europeans discuss membership of the New Development Bank (NDB) being set up by the BRICS to fund projects in member countries.Headquartered in Shanghai, the bank is expected to be operational by end of 2015. Once fully operational, it will become an alternative financing source for the BRICS nations and other emerging markets.Like the head of the AIIB, the first chief of the BRICS bank, India’s K. V. Kamath has been quoted as saying that the NDB sees other multilateral lending institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) as partners rather than rivals.And yet many continue to be suspicious. The US and Japan have not yet joined the AIIB and many EU policymakers continue to voice fears that the new banks will fall short of high Western standards of transparency and accountability.The BRICS have made clear that they don’t really care. The Old Guard is welcome to come on board, but the world is moving on and they won’t stop for the laggards.Russia, given its tense relations with the West following the crisis in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, has taken the toughest line in its dealing with Europe and America. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov underlined in Ufa, emerging nations represent a “new polycentric system of international relations” and demonstrate new global centres of power.As he shook hands with his Chinese, Indian, South African and Brazilian counterparts, a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that he was far from the sad and isolated man that the West wants him to be.And it’s not just about the BRICS. An array of newly-empowered nations and groupings are challenging Europe and America’s dominance of the post World War II order. Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia are part of MIKTA which claims to act as a bridge between old and new powers.New Zealand says it is the champion of “small nations” without whose support nothing can be achieved on the global stage. The Group of 20 remains relevant as a forum which brings together industrialised and emerging countries.And then there is also the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which EU and Nato policymakers also tend to shrug off as an impotent “paper tiger”.They shouldn’t. As India and Pakistan set out on the road to membership of the SCO, it is clear that while the security organisation does not see itself as a rival to Nato, it does intend to make its voice heard on global security challenges.Underlining just how significantly the world has changed, the five BRICS countries and the six SCO members which include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — joined by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Mongolia which have observer status — held a joint summit in Ufa.The Greek crisis was on the BRICS agenda of course. While Europe may not like the new world out there, emerging nations know that in an interconnected and interdependent world, what happens in Europe affects them. And that a failed Europe is in nobody’s interest.

Greek crisis endangers Europe’s heart and soul (Originally published 04/07/2015 at dawn.com)

This column is not about the Greek Eurozone crisis. How could it be — what more would I or indeed anyone — be able to add to the reams and reams of stuff that has already been written, rewritten, said and resaid about the topic?The facts are well known: Greeks will vote on July 5 in a snap referendum that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says will give the country’s long-suffering people the final say on whether he should accept the tough terms of a cash-for-austerity deal from creditors at the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.Tsipras wants Greeks to say no, apparently arguing that creditors are bluffing and will not take the catastrophic step of ejecting Greece from the club of 19 nations that use the euro currency.The creditors say they’re ready to push the nuclear button. Enough is enough. Throwing Greece out of the Eurozone won’t matter that much. It’s a small economy, the impact will be limited. Eighteen countries will still be in the Eurozone. Life will go on.Of course it will. Life always goes on. After wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and suicide bombings, life goes on. People come out of the crisis, pull up their socks, get back to work.But think about it: life is never really the same ever again.So, Grexit won’t bring Europe to its knees. The Eurozone will not unravel, neither will the European Union. The other eighteen countries of the Eurozone will soldier on even if Greece exits the currency bloc.Also worth noting: even if it does leave the Eurozone, Greece will still be a member of the 28-nation EU.But let’s make no mistake: If Greece is ejected from the Eurozone, it will — even further — destroy the heart and soul of this continent.In fact, the soul of Europe is already half-destroyed. This protracted crisis is taking its toll on Europe’s self-image, self-confidence, its links with ordinary Europeans and its role and influence on the global stage.Born in Asia, grown up in Europe, I have always admired my adopted continent for its ability to put past animosities behind, to work together for the common good, to make sure war never erupts again in our lifetime and beyond.I love the variety and the diversity of Europe, the freedom to travel, work and live in any of the 28 countries, the freedom to say and do what I like, without raised eyebrows or reproachful, critical glances.But Europe is changing. The last 70 years since the end of World War II have been peaceful — but the EU showed its feet of clay during the devastating and blood-soaked Balkan conflict.Tolerance and human rights are universal values but Europe has been their most determined defender. And yet as thousands of hapless refugees arrive on its shores, Europe is showing an indifference which beggars belief.As the Far Right narrative of hatred and racism becomes ever shriller, the voices calling for peace and calm are drowned out. No politician has the courage to say that Europe needs immigration and desperately needs foreign skills and talent.The debate over Greece has polarised Europe, splitting it in half. Those in favour of austerity argue that Greece spends too much, doesn’t save enough money and doesn’t tax its rich people as much as it should.They want Athens to cut spending, slash pensions and increase taxes.Others argue equally powerfully that a country in recession cannot be punished even further and that what Greece needs above all is a fiscal stimulus to get back growth and create some desperately-needed jobs.Greek Prime Minister Tsipras and his Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis have been engaged in a seemingly un-ending battle of wills with their Eurozone colleagues for months.I have lost count of the number of marathon discussion sessions held so far, the constant tweeting by the key players and the false dawns that a deal was just around the corner.But something strange appears to have transpired over the last few days. Initial sympathy for the Athens duo appears to be fading, with more and more insiders warning that Tsipras and Varoufakis have lost the plot.German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose nation has lent more to Greece than any other in the European Union, is often seen as the architect of Greek austerity. But some of the countries that are now coming down hardest on Greece are the smaller, poorer Eurozone nations that have accepted the bitter pills of austerity and say the Greeks should do so as well.As the debate grinds on in Brussels, Athens and other capitals, it would be heartening to know that the interest of the Greek people was top of the EU and the Eurozone agenda.It isn’t. Europe, which was once about the people, the citizens, the demos, is now transformed into an argument about money. It’s about austerity versus growth.My question is: how will Greece ever get back on track — ever start growing again — without the support, involvement and contribution of its people?

View from Abroad: Can’t live with EU — can’t live without EU (Originally published 30/05/2015 at dawn.com)

The European Union is gearing up for another bout of prolonged, agonising and internal soul-searching.Reflection on Europe’s future, its identity and role in a rapidly changing world is certainly necessary. But the European landscape has become increasingly complicated, making it imperative that even as it ponders over its future, the EU deals with the many crises on its borders — and beyond.Also, at a time when unity is a compelling necessity, many of the 28 EU countries often appear to be headed in different and often contradictory directions.Take a look: Cameron calls for ‘flexible and imaginative’ EU reformsThere is no denying that triggered by demands by Britain’s newly re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron for an across the board overhaul of key EU priorities, the bloc looks set to enter another period of deep introspection on its future direction, main concerns and general raison d’etre.Britain will hold a referendum — probably next year — on whether it should remain in the EU. But London is not alone in envisaging a withdrawal from the Union.There is also dangerous talk of a Greek exit from the Eurozone as Athens struggles to meet its massive financial obligations vis-à-vis its international lenders.Meanwhile, Poland has elected a conservative new president, Andrzej Duda, while Spain seems to have voted in the opposite — leftist — direction in recent regional elections.In addition, the European economy remains mired in stagnation. Jobs remain scarce across the bloc while the debate on immigration and reception of refugees becomes ever more toxic and complex.Ironically, even as Europeans wring their hands in despair over their many interrelated problems, countries outside the bloc can’t wait to get in.Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have joined the long list of countries which want a so-called “road map” leading up to membership of the EU.They are not going to get any such thing. At a meeting in Riga last week, the EU made clear that while it wanted closer relations with the three countries — and despite the growing influence of Russia in the region — EU membership was not on the cards.Also in Europe, the leaders of six Western Balkan countries have told the EU that they are becoming impatient with their long wait to join the bloc and needed EU funds to keep up reforms.The prime ministers of Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania, all hoping to join the bloc, have said their cooperation should be rewarded with projects like new road and rail links.Slovenia and Croatia are the only countries in the region to have joined the EU. The others have lagged behind because of conflicts with neighbours after the break-up of Yugoslavia and a failure to achieve reform.And then there is Turkey which is still waiting on the sidelines, anxious to become an EU member but unlikely to become one any time in the future.For the moment, all eyes are on Britain and Prime Minister Cameron’s calls for a renegotiation of the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon, the latest version of its constitution.Many EU countries are sympathetic to Britain’s demands for an overhaul of the EU — but do not want another long, difficult and complicated treaty negotiation.Details of what Britain really wants are still deliberately sketchy. But, some salient demands stand out.First, Cameron wants Britain to opt out from the EU ambition to forge an “ever closer union” of the peoples of Europe.He wants to restrict access to the British labour market of EU migrants.And he would like to free business from red tape and “excessive interference” from Brussels and providing access to new markets through “turbo charging” free trade deals with America and AsiaFinally, he says Britain would resist any move towards a European army and has ruled out Britain joining the euro.Controversially, Cameron has said that while British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK will be eligible to vote, nationals from other EU countries residing in the UK will not.Very few EU leaders would like Britain to leave the bloc. Britain’s membership of the EU is good for both Britain and other European states.But many in Brussels and other EU capitals are becoming increasingly frustrated with the tone and content of the toxic British debate on Europe.As a result, many are warning that Britain may have to leave in order to ensure the survival of the EU.The prospect of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is equally problematic, with many worried of the repercussions of such a move on the credibility of the single currency.Still, while things may look very complicated for those inside the EU, membership of the club remains a goal for many of the EU’s neighbours. As Turkey has learned, however, getting a seat at the EU table is not easy. It requires hard work, time and effort — and a great deal of patience.

View From Abroad: Ties with China are bright spot in Europe’s foreign policy (Originally published 31/01/2015 at dawn.com)

The new European Union Commission, in office since November last year, likes to talk of a “fresh start” for Europe. There is upbeat talk of streamlining EU actions, simplifying procedures, launching a new era of mega investment projects and revving up growth.The reality is more complicated. The election in Greece of a new anti-austerity coalition government headed by Alexis Tsipras has highlighted growing dissent and anger in the Eurozone over the unrelentingly rigid fiscal policies imposed by Germany and followed by the EU.The much-publicised 315 billion euro investment plan launched by the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker may look impressive on paper but is seen by many as too woolly to really generate the growth and jobs that Europe needs so desperately.Additionally, the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier in January means that the Far Right and anti-Islamic parties continue to gain traction and become ever more dominant in the debate on immigration.It’s equally bleak on the foreign policy front. Relations with Russia remain tense. Although there is almost agreement among the 28 EU nations on the need to maintain sanctions against Moscow, depending on their national histories and experiences, European foreign ministers’ attitudes towards Moscow range from very tough (the Baltic states and some Central and Eastern European countries) to soft (Greece and Italy).In the south, the EU is struggling to forge a coherent and meaningful strategy towards Turkey and its other Southern Mediterranean neighbours as well as the Islamic State (IS). European governments also remain divided over whether or not to recognise an independent Palestinian state.Further afield, relations with Japan, South Korea and India remain largely lacklustre and uninspiring. Unlike US President Barack Obama, no European leader can claim to have a glamorous bromance with India’s celebrity Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Japan’s Shinzo Abe.Not surprisingly therefore to many observers in Asia, EU foreign policy seems slow and plodding, focused almost exclusively on trade and business and not enough on a long-term strategy for closer political and security ties.There is one striking exception, however: China. Surprisingly in a world of flux, EU-China relations remain relatively strong, vibrant and multifaceted even as Europe dithers over Russia, India and other emerging nations.The point was made at a meeting of European think tanks in Brussels this week, with experts agreeing that Europe and China must up their engagement. Such consensus is rare in Brussels, especially among academics.Certainly, it’s their mutual economic interdependence that keeps EU-China ties dynamic and buoyant. China’s growth rates may be slowing down but its appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery.China’s economic transformation — and plans for even more change in the coming years — demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology.China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments. Both sides are negotiating a formal treaty to further boost mutual investment flows.Increasingly, also in Brussels there is recognition that a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials.Europe’s one-time ambition to shape China into a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising. But there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues including relations with, Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significantly, China has invested time, effort and money into upping its relations with Europe. Beijing is working on several tracks at the same time. The focus in recently years has been on further consolidating the China-Germany “special relationship” but also reinforcing ties with former communist nations in Central and Eastern Europe, countries in the Western Balkans and also Nordic states.Responding to critics who complained that Beijing was paying too much attention to European member states and not enough to the EU, Chinese leaders have made it a point in recent months to visit Brussels.The result is a surprisingly solid and well-rounded EU-China relationship which could even become a model for other Asian countries.A key problem, however, is that the EU still treats China as just another emerging nation rather than the regional and global mammoth that it has become. The emphasis is on bread and butter issues like trade and investments, urbanisation, good and valid subjects but do not reflect Beijing’s increasing global clout and outreach.The EU should be looking at thrashing out a new narrative for China which is truly strategic and considers issues like global governance, sustainable development goals and international terrorism.In other words, as the EU and China prepare to celebrate 40 years of their relationship, the EU-China relationship should move from the ritualistic to the strategic — as quickly as possible.

View from Abroad: Pakistan’s choice (Originally published 6/12/2014 at dawn.com)

As I prepare to travel to Pakistan — the first such visit in five years — I am filled with admiration, amazement and apprehension. They say the past is a different country. And Pakistan is certainly a very different country from the one I left all those years ago.Pakistan and I have both changed. I am obviously older (but not wiser) than the young, naive and rather demure girl who boarded the plane from Islamabad to Brussels with her parents and sister. At the time, I believed I would be away for a few months, may be a couple of years. Several decades later, Europe has become a core part of my identity and existence and Brussels is “home”, a city that has nourished and nurtured me through good times and bad.Pakistan’s transformation is more starkly radical. Sometimes I can hardly recognise my country of birth. There is much still to admire and love — and to yearn for on cold European winter evenings. Family and friends of course. The food and some of the music. The stories being told by old writers and new ones whose books I devour avidly. The artists whose pieces stir long-buried memories.But what I admire most is the resilience of the people. The indomitable spirit of the so-called common man, the “ordinary” people — or the “masses” that the Pakistani politicians refer to in derision — who keep the country humming and running against all odds.You see that unbeatable spirit everywhere, among the people displaced by floods and the deadly fighting between the army and the Taliban, after the tragic deaths of innocent civilians caused by drones, among the thousand Malalas still determined to go to school and the sick people waiting patiently for a doctor to see them in crowded hospitals.But that resilience is also about being optimistic about the future. Going to work every day in packed buses, facing harassment, electricity breakdowns, rampant inflation and corruption with stubbornness and stoicism. And to keep going on and on. I admire Pakistani business leaders and innovators who still invest and believe in the country. The young and the daring entrepreneurs. People who speak up for tolerance, resist the siren song of conformity and compromise.I have seen the same energy and resilience in many other parts of Asia and in Africa. But recently rarely in Europe. The Eurozone crisis has exhausted Europe and joblessness rates are much too high, especially for young people.But speak to young people in China, India and Indonesia and it is clear that they believe in a better future. Visit the countries and it is clear that people’s lives are getting better. Of course there is still inequality, poverty and hunger. But the governments in these countries are trying hard to tackle the multiple challenges they face. Are Pakistani politicians doing the same?So what about my amazement? Well, I suppose it’s about the patience of the people, the willingness to put up with mediocre and often corrupt politicians, war-mongering soldiers, inequality and unfairness and the rampant lack of the rule of law. Elections have not led to real democracy. All that aid money pouring in, has not led to sustainable growth and development.Reading the online version of the front page of Dawn fills me with wonder at how quickly Pakistan’s political landscape has turned into a dark, cruel, repetitive circus. The scowling, angry features of former cricketer Imran Khan, the crazy pronouncements of the Canadian preacher, the ever-chubbier and dishevelled, helpless look of the prime minister and the semi-lucid mutterings of the scion of the Bhutto family.And then there is the apprehension. Despite the disappointment and the disillusionment with a country which I once called home, I suppose there is still some lingering connection, a hope that Pakistan will survive the challenges of the 21st century, stand proud and tall and become an integral part of a rising Asia.It would be nice if Pakistan was in the headlines not because of the antics of the likes of Junaid Jamshed, anti-India rants by the foreign ministry, suicide bombings and hate-Malala crazies as well as the treatment being meted out to Asia Bibi but because the country was breaking new ground, turning a fresh page, opting for sanity rather than madness.After so many years and so many wonderful experiences in Europe and Asia — not to mention the lessons in honesty, sincerity and fearlessness that I learned from my father — I wonder if I will be able to stay silent when I encounter intolerance and religiosity and the blatant disregard for the rights of women, children and minorities that seems to have become part of the national discourse.Across Asia, there is hope and progress. Viewed from Brussels, it certainly looks like this is the Asian Century, a time when Asia is coming of age, growing and developing.Pakistan has a choice: it could join the Asian mainstream and give its people the life and future they deserve or it can opt to be part of a self-destructive Middle East mindset and stay on the periphery of a dynamic and vibrant Asia. I know what I would choose — but do they?

View from Abroad: A new plan to revive 'Granny Europe' (Originally published 29/11/2014 at dawn.com)

Not much gets Europeans excited these days. When challenges emerge — at least on the foreign policy front — the reaction seems to be almost always the same. Problems with Russia? Let’s expand sanctions. Iran? Let’s keep sanctions. Islamic State? Let’s impose sanctions although just how and on whom is not clear.But suddenly, out of the blue, there is a bit of a buzz in the winter air. Europeans woke up on Nov 26 with a new “hero”: European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker who strode on to centre stage to promise peace — or at least jobs — in our time.It was a seminal moment. For Juncker and Europe.The former Luxembourg prime minister is facing allegations that hundreds of multi-national firms were reportedly attracted to Luxembourg in legal tax avoidance schemes. Juncker was prime minister at the time but denies wrongdoing. The new plan has the advantage of taking the almost-scandal off the media radar.For Europe, the plan could be the answer to its dreams of revival. The 28-nation bloc is still struggling to climb out of a long and painful Eurozone crisis. Growth rates are low, unemployment is tragically high, especially among young people. People are downbeat and dejected. Even the German economy is beginning to flag.To top it all, making pessimists even more downbeat, in a speech to the European Parliament last week, Pope Francis likened Europe to a grandmother, “no longer fertile and vibrant”. (I’m not sure he’s talking about the lively grannies I know though…)Anti-granny remarks aside, the pontiff’s remarks do resonate for many. Europe is getting a tad worn out, depressed and haggard. A shot of vitamins is badly needed.Enter Juncker with a magic bullet: a 315 billion euro plan to spend EU money on new infrastructure projects as part of an initiative to revive granny and help Europe grow and thrive again.Only, there is no magic involved. There will be hardly any new money — only €21bn in EU funds as a guarantee to raise private cash in the capital markets — with the rest of the money expected to come from private sources.EU policymakers say they will be looking for funds wherever they can. Chinese investments will be sought out avidly. Middle East investors will be welcome.“I often hear we need so-called fresh money. But we need a fresh start and fresh investment,” Juncker told the European Parliament this week. “We will not betray our children and grandchildren by writing cheques they ultimately will have to pay.”With one eye on developments across the Atlantic, the Commission chief moaned that “While investment is taking off in the US, Europe is lagging behind. Why? Because investors lack confidence, credibility and trust.”The Commission is making up for the lack of solid details on the plan by upping the hype. Juncker says the initiative represents a cornerstone of efforts to revive an ailing economy.Others have called it a historic moment, a make-or-break initiative, a European “New Deal” to get Europeans working again.Certainly, the timing is right. Many European economists have been saying for some time Europe needs to move from the current focus on austerity to programmes which bring back growth.And the best way to do so is to start investing again — especially in infrastructure.The Commission believes it could create up to 1.3 million jobs with investment in broadband, energy networks and transport infrastructure, as well as education and research.National governments could contribute to the fund if they wished and would be asked to come up with a list of projects with “high socio-economic returns” that could kick-off between 2015 and 2017.With a nod to Martin Luther King, Juncker added that he had a dream. He wanted to see schoolchildren walking into a brand new classroom equipped with computers in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, European hospitals saving lives with state of the art medical equipment and French commuters charging electric cars on motorways.The good news is that pro-austerity Germany — the bane of countries like France and Italy which want the EU to start spending itself out of economic stagnation — is in favour of the plan.But EU officials admit the initiative will not fill the gap in the amount of investments needed, especially in infrastructure across Europe. There is also concern that there will not be enough credible projects around for investors to put their money into.The European Investment Bank will be the “prime mover” in delivering seed money for those investments over the next three years. The plan will now be discussed by the 28 EU leaders at the Dec 18-19 summit.Juncker’s shift from austerity and cutting debt to investment is not going to be the botox shot needed to transform “Granny Europe” into a vibrant young woman. But it is a start.

View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)

The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.

Cool heads needed as EU launches China solar panel probe (Originally published 07/09/12)

The European Commission’s decision on September 6 to start investigating suspected dumping of Chinese-made solar panels has sparked fears of a damaging Brussels-Beijing trade war. It should not: the EU-China relationship is much too important to be jeopardized by anti-dumping inquiries which – however sensational – represent a minor percentage of EU-China trade.The solar panel case has been on the EU drawing board for several months, prompting repeated warnings from China that any EU action would hurt the global clean energy sector and lead to damaging tit-for-tat measures.The group of European solar companies, led by Germany's SolarWorld, and including Italian and other European firms, says Chinese solar firms have been selling panels below market value in Europe. Chinese producers in the firing line include Yingli Green Energy, Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, Trina Solar Ltd and Canadian Solar Inc.The inquiry is not unexpected. Under EU law, the Commission is bound to open an anti-dumping inquiry if the complaint satisfies certain basic requirements. Officials say this is the case.The timing of the investigation is unfortunate, however: it comes just days before the EU and China hold summit talks in Brussels. The meeting on September 20 will be the last formal encounter between Premier Wen Jiabao – who has invested much time and effort in developing China’s EU connection - and senior EU policymakers before he hands over the baton to his successor (widely expected to be Vice Premier Li Keqiang).The EU action follows close on the heels of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s much-publicised visit to Beijing last week. Ms Merkel has said she wants the dispute over solar panels to be resolved through dialogue, not an anti-dumping investigation. She has also sought to reassure her worried Chinese hosts on the “absolute political will” of Eurozone countries to stabilize their currency.Merkel’s visit coincided with a Chinese announcement that it was purchasing 50 Airbus planes worth over $4 billion, the first significant order since a dispute between Beijing and Europe over emissions trading.Wen’s farewell meeting with the EU should certainly not be soured by the anti-dumping case. There should be no repeat of the acrimony generated at the EU-China summit in 2010 over EU criticism of China’s currency policy.Both sides have mended fences over the last two years. Discussions continue over human rights, market access and investments. But the Eurozone crisis and China’s increased economic clout has led to a change in the EU’s view of China. As such, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy are likely to focus on the many areas where the EU and China have succeeded in building a stronger partnership rather than on trade and other irritants.There are initial encouraging signs that Beijing is toning down its earlier rhetoric. In contrast to earlier statements, China's immediate response to the anti-dumping inquiry been measured, with no mention of any retaliatory steps.“China expresses deep regret” about the decision, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said in a statement on the ministry's website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).“Restricting China's solar panel products will not only hurt the interests of both Chinese and European industry, it will also wreck the healthy development of the global solar and clean energy sector,”said Shen.He urged the EU to “seriously consider China's position and proposals, and to resolve friction over solar panel trade through consultations and cooperation”.China sold about 21 billion euros in solar panels and components to the EU in 2011 - about 60 percent of all Chinese exports of the product.Total EU imports from China were valued at 292 billion euros last year. Imports of Chinese products subject to trade defense duties total less than one percent of that amount. The US also imposed duties on solar panel imports from China in May after a similar initiative led by SolarWorld there.Europe’s solar companies are divided over the dumping case. Some such as those that install panels say Europe should welcome Chinese imports because they make solar power more affordable and are essential for the 27-member bloc to achieve its goal of having 20 percent of energy from renewables by 2020. EU companies that have sold machinery to China to produce photovoltaic cells have also expressed misgivings.EU governments are unlikely to see eye to eye on the investigation. Berlin is wary of annoying a country with which it has forged a trade-based “special relationship” and which remains an important ally in efforts to stabilize the Eurozone.Others may also hesitate. The EU-China relationship has been gaining momentum in recent months. At their last summit in Beijing in February, the EU and China launched a high level people-to-people dialogue on a par with their discussions on strategic issues and on economic questions.An urbanization partnership is now in full swing with mayors’ from Europe and China set to meet in Brussels on September 19 for two days of discussions.In addition, EU and Chinese business leaders will meet for their own summit on September 20 to discuss investments and innovation.The upcoming EU-China summit is not expected to result in any headline-grabbing new initiatives but practical new cooperation tracks will emerge. Leaders are expected to launch discussions on water security, a rural development partnership and talk about cyber security.The focus on practical engagement and cooperation in areas of mutual interest should define the EU-China relationship in the coming years. China and Europe are increasingly interdependent, a fact that Merkel understands and underlines.As such, instead of fearing Germany’s determination to build ever-stronger relations with China, Berlin’s partners should encourage such moves. The German-China “special relationship” adds to the EU’s clout and influence when talking to Beijing.Talk of competition between the EU and Germany in dealing with China should be jettisoned. Instead, the EU should take a leaf from Berlin’s book of practical diplomacy and engagement with Beijing. What’s good for German-Chinese relations will boost, not undermine, EU-China relations.

Rising Asia and old Europe need to work together (Originally published 21/03/12, co-authored with Giles Merritt)

Tempting as it may be, it would be wrong to write off Europe as yesterday’s power. Europe still matters even though this is not the message some EU policymakers have been sending out to a watching world.The impression that Europe is too busy dealing with internal challenges to play a strong global role is especially strong in Asia. True, China gets a great deal of EU attention. And the EU’s outreach on trade remains strong. But there is more to Asia than China - and trade and investment agreements must not be made a substitute for a more pro-active EU foreign policy.The EU must engage more strongly with South Asian and Southeast Asian countries on foreign policy and security questions, not just trade. This means top-level EU participation in Asian security fora such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). It means showing up and seriously participating in ministerial meetings with Asian countries such as the EU-ASEAN gathering of foreign ministers in Brunei in April. It also requires regular and consistent high-level conversations on global and regional challenges with India and other South Asian nations.Apart from trips to China, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has been a rare visitor to the rest of Asia. Her decision to stay away from the ARF last year, for a second year running, was a serious faux pas. Not surprisingly, Asians have put Europe’s request to join the East Asia Summit – the region’s prime security club – on hold and insist that Europeans must first prove they are ready for a serious conversation with Asia on security.European policymakers are selling Europe short. Asia cannot take Europe seriously unless it does a better job of communicating with the region – and gains better understanding of what makes increasingly self-confident Asians tick.Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require that the EU engages in new courtships and new alliances with governments, businesses and civil society leaders in the region.The name of the game has to be partnership between Rising Asia and Old Europe. But by failing to engage seriously and consistently with Asia, Europeans are propagating a myth of European weakness and irrelevance.The reality of Europe – the eurozone crisis notwithstanding - is different. Given its experience in turning enemies into friends, voluntarily pooling sovereignty and achieving economic and political integration, the EU has a wealth of experience to share with Asia on future frameworks for global governance. More so, it scarcely needs saying, than the United States.Asians pressing ahead with their own efforts at regional integration and cross-border cooperation still look at the EU for inspiration. Interestingly, this is still the case although Europe’s practice of lecturing ASEAN on the subject has irked many Asians.The EU’s predominance in world trade is undiminished. EU-Asia trade is booming and is crucial both for Europe’s economic recovery and ensuring that Asian growth remains on track. The EU-Korea free trade agreement is the first in a series of trade-expanding deals that Europe is negotiating with Asian partners, including India, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.Europe is the biggest source of foreign investments in Asia. Today, the eurozone crisis has made Europe’s frontier-free single market even more of a magnet for Asian investors. A recent survey underlined that 45 % of businesses in Asia are either currently doing or looking to make strategic acquisitions in Europe in the next 12 months, compared with just 14 % cent in the Middle East and 7 % in North America.Although Asian exporters and businesses may complain about Brussels’ heavy-handed ways, the EU has fostered the development of high-quality rules and standards which help shape global norms in areas such as food and consumer products, cars, chemicals, aircraft emissions. European companies are leading innovators in clean and green technologies that Asia needs to meet the challenge of low-carbon growth and urbanisation and realise their plans for increased connectivity among nations.It is the coming overhaul of the many aspects of the EU rulebook – from financial services to climate issues – that will maintain the EU’s clout and influence.Neither Europe nor Asia can work alone to tackle threats to global stability that range from resource competition, nuclear proliferation, overpopulation to climate change.Europe isn’t indifferent and certainly not irrelevant to Asia’s rise. As the US speaks of the Asia Pacific Century and seems to reinforce its presence in Asia, Europe must develop its own blueprint for improved engagement with the region.

EU-China ties: Beyond the headlines (Originally published 10/02/12)

Expect no headline-grabbing breakthroughs at the China-EU summit in Beijing on February 14. China is unlikely to drop its strong opposition to the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), there will be no spectacular China-funded rescue package to ease the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and Beijing will remain outside the international consensus on sanctions against Syria and Iran.The EU, meanwhile, will stay firm on keeping its arms embargo on China and not grant Beijing much-coveted status as a market economy.Discord on these and other issues is only part of the story, however. There is more to the EU-China relationship than meets the eye. New economic and geo-political realities are prompting both sides to sidestep old grievances, think afresh and try to seek out common ground.It is not proving easy. Traditional and new areas of disagreement - including strong divergences over China’s human rights record – have not disappeared. However, behind the headlines, Europe and China are slowly but surely building a new network of ties that bind.Mostly this is economic necessity. Europe needs all the rich friends it can get to help ease the current Eurozone debt crisis. China’s economic future depends on continued access for its exports to Europe’s large market.But both sides are also exploring new avenues for cooperation. The launch of a high-level EU-China people-to-people dialogue at the Beijing meeting is a case in point as is the start of an EU-China partnership on sustainable urbanisation.EU and Chinese officials are discussing energy questions, cyber security, water management and counter-piracy activities. Efforts to step up cooperation with China on these and other global common goods are a step in the right direction to meet key 21st Century security challenges.For the moment, however, the focus remains on economics and trade. Crucially, as the Eurozone crisis grinds on, there is heightened awareness of the expanding connections and deep interdependence between the European and Chinese economies.If both sides play their cards right, this could signal the start of a real “win-win” era.China has an interest in safeguarding the health of its biggest export market. It also needs to diversify its currency reserves. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s repeated assurances – given most recently during German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to China – that Beijing will help Europe to fight the current crisis reflect a strong recognition that in an inter-connected world, as he put it, “helping stability in the European market is actually helping ourselves”.Meanwhile, with an eye on China’s 3.2 trillion dollar currency reserves, EU officials say enhanced cooperation with China is more than ever before a “strategic necessity”.As such, while EU Commissioners Karel De Gucht and Michel Barnier may threaten China over its restricted rules on government procurement and constraints on exports of rare earth, the EU has little interest in engaging in a damaging tit-for-tat trade confrontation with Beijing.Similarly, European fears over the political fall-out from rising Chinese investments in Europe – especially in infrastructure and utilities - are likely to ease once the phenomenon loses its novelty value. As cooler heads point out, far from “buying up” Europe, like corporates the world over, Chinese companies are looking for commercially sound and viable investments.Clearly, Europe needs to press for an equally open Chinese market both as regards European investments and European exports. But with China poised to become the EU’s largest trading partner this year, overtaking the United States, and Europe still the biggest market for Chinese exports, both sides know it is time to look beyond their daily skirmishes to the rewards inherent in building closer and stronger relationship.