10/19/15 10/19/15

2015 at Dawn.com)

So what’s democracy all about? And is there a magic formula for ensuring a successful transition from authoritarian rule to democracy?If you’ve ever asked that question and fretted about the state of your nation, pick up a fascinating just-released book From Authoritarian Rule Toward Democratic Governance: Learning from Political Leaders by International IDEA — the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance — which tells you just how to ensure successful democratic transitions.Authors of the in-depth study, based on a conversation with 13 former presidents from nine countries on four continents, have come up with 10 lessons on what works and what doesn’t work when nations embark on the often-perilous path to democracy.A quick glance at the headlines, including the chaos in Egypt, violence in Syria and Libya and still fragile transitions in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Myanmar make clear that Democratic Transitions should be obligatory bedside reading for all would-be democrats, wherever they are.And while some countries like Pakistan may pride themselves on having moved from democratic transition to democracy, I would ask: really? Given the state of governance in the country, the book should be compulsory reading not just for the prime minister and his advisers but all opposition politicians — and army men — with aspirations to lead the country.After having talked to men — there are no women leaders who were interviewed but there is a chapter on the role of women in political transformations — Abraham Lowenthal from the Brookings Institution and Sergio Bitar, a former minister in successive Chilean governments, have come up with what they term “10 imperatives for crafting democratic transitions”.So what are the lessons learned?First, opposition leaders should combat repression and dictatorship by moving forward incrementally. In order to combat repression and push for openings, opposition leaders have to exert continuous pressure but be prepared to make compromises to move ahead. Transition-making is not a task for the dogmatic. Dismissing maximalist positions call for more political courage than hewing to impractical principles.Second, throughout the campaign for democracy, project a positive and inclusive vision for democratic change rather than focusing on past grievances. Keep hammering home such as hope and vision to combat the pervasive fear among people who may prefer authoritarian calm — even army rule — over democratic turmoil.Third, build convergence and coalitions among democratic forces. Connect to social movements — workers, students, women, human rights groups and religious institutions — in fashioning the democratising movement’s aims and programmes.Four, create spaces for dialogue between democratic movements and authoritarian regimes — secretly at first if necessary as was the case in South Africa. Informal dialogues can help members of the authoritarian regime and the democratic opposition to understand each other and build a working relationship.Five, act firmly but carefully to achieve democratic civilian control of security services. Transition leaders should take early and decisive action to bring the armed forces, police and intelligence agencies under civilian authority and control while recognising their legitimate roles. The army’s focus should be on external defence and international peacekeeping, not on internal security.Six, craft workable constitutions through an inclusive process and engage a wide range of participants in drafting a constitutional document while also working hard to respond to the core concerns of key groups. Also, provide some assurance to elements and supporters of the former regime that their fundamental economic and institutional concerns and individual rights will be respected under the rule of law.Seven, manage economic tensions to combine growth with equity. Alleviating poverty and dealing with unemployment and inflation often come into conflict with economic reforms needed for future growth. To deal with this tension, adopt social measures to help the poorest and the most vulnerable elements of society.Eight, invest early on in building and institutionalising vibrant political parties given their key role in creating and sustaining democracies — provided they do not become vehicles for individual political figures and their democracies.Nine, to meet the needs for justice and memory, avoid wholescale prosecution of former officials. Instead, establish transparent legal processes to tackle violations of rights, provide recognition and reparation to victims and bring violators to justice.Finally, draw on external support from government and non-governmental actors but remember that democracy cannot be imposed from the outside. International actors cannot take the place of domestic initiatives, the study warns. But they can encourage and provide discreet advice. What foreign powers must not do is undertake impatient and counterproductive interventions.As for the qualities of leadership, the book notes that there is not one model for a transition leader. He or she needs to be cool-headed, pragmatic but also full of resolve and courage. Some had the self-confidence to take difficult decisions, others relied on competent associates.All of those interviewed, underlined that top political executives did not work on their own but rather creatively and constructively with many others.And finally a word of warning for those preparing mass protests and demonstrations: democracy does not emerge directly or easily from crowds in the street. Crafting democracies takes vision, time, hard work, persistence, skill — some luck — and above all leadership.

5/27/15 5/27/15

View from Abroad: A week of tears, tragedy and shame (Originally published 23/05/2015 at dawn.com)

They may disagree on many issues, but as they struggled to respond to their respective refugee crises, the European and Asian governments acted with an equally distressing disregard for human life.The Europeans showed little concern for the human rights and much — touted “European values” of tolerance etc that they often preach on the international stage and in their dealings with other states. The Asians illustrated an equal ruthlessness and lack of humanity.The Europeans turned a deaf ear to the Vatican’s appeal for mercy and charity. The Asian nations had little pity for the plight of fellow Muslims.In Europe, as the refugee crisis in the Mediterranean Sea worsened, with thousands of desperate African, Arab and Asian refugees continuing to arrive on Italian and Greek shores, the 28 European Union countries squabbled over the number of people they could “realistically” be expected to allow on to their territory.Plans were drawn up for a naval operation against the human traffickers. There was toxic talk of keeping out as many as possible of the world’s huddled masses.Take a look: In Asian seas, Rohingya migrants have nowhere to landIn Asia, the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) showed itself to be even more inhumane as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia left thousands of Rohingya refugees adrift on the high seas, adamant that they could not be expected to open their doors to Myanmar’s persecuted Muslim minority.The Rohingyas were eventually given temporary shelter by Malaysia and Indonesia, but only after repeated scoldings by the United Nations to protect migrants and refugees stranded on the vessels, to give priority to saving lives, protecting rights, and respecting human dignity.Amazingly, Mynamar where persecution against the Rohingyas is rife escaped Asean censure. Thailand which has received many of the migrants said it was not going to be taking in any more. None of the other Asean states said a word of protest.A meeting to discuss the problem has been called at the end of the month — but many believe that Myanmar is unlikely to attend.Significantly, UN officials, including the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein have also appealed strongly to European leaders to put human life, rights and dignity first when agreeing on a common response to what they called the “tragedy of epic proportions” unfolding in the Mediterranean Sea, where some 1,600 people have died this year trying to flee their strife-torn homelands.Certainly, it isn’t easy for any country to open its doors to thousands of foreigners in one go and to provide them with food, water and shelter — and a future.But in a world of war, violence, extremism, persecution and poverty, the mass movement of desperate people is inevitable. Pakistan opened its doors to millions of Afghans. Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey are taking in displaced Syrians.The situation of so-called “stateless” people is even worse. Palestinian refugees have been in camps for decades as have so-called “Biharis”. The Rohingyas, chased out by the Buddhist extremists in Myanmar, are unwelcome across Southeast Asia. Lampedusa in Italy is crowded with men, women and children of many different nationalities — but as they flee war and poverty, often leaving their documents behind, they might as well be stateless.The number of migrants entering the EU illegally almost tripled last year. Of the nearly 170,000 migrants who crossed the Mediterranean to Italy in 2014, more than 3,200 lost their lives trying to reach Europe. During the first two months of this year, arrivals were up 43 per cent versus the same period last year.The outlook for Asean is equally grim. Nearly 31,000 refugees took to the boats in the last three months of 2014, followed by another 25,750 in the first quarter of 2014. Europe’s initial response to the mass arrival of the refugees was feeble, disjointed and inadequate. But the reality of the human tragedy unfolding in what many now call the “sea of death” finally forced governments into action — of sorts.It’s still not clear if the distribution of the hapless people among EU member states will take place as the European Commission would like. Britain and France have already said no. With Europe’s Far Right xenophobic leaders breathing down their necks, others are not too keen either.Asean’s callousness is not unexpected. Countries in the region don’t really have a tradition of caring much about human rights and have a policy of not interfering in the affairs of others.Still, the lack of humanity initially shown by the region towards the desperate Rohingyas is cause for dismay. Most of Myanmar’s 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims are stateless and live in apartheid-like conditions. Almost 140,000 were displaced in clashes with ethnic Rakhine Buddhists in 2012.In addition to taking in the refugees, Asean must demand that Myanmar stop the continuing violence against Rohingyas. The credibility and reputation of the region is at stake. Asean may want to focus on high economic growth and its plans to build a frontier-free common market. But it would be a pity if it lost its soul in the process.

4/20/15 4/20/15

View from abroad : Myanmar, exiled kings and me (Originally published 18/04/2015 at dawn.com)

Our young and vivacious Myanmar guide is mystified by my question. Who exactly is this “Indian king” whose grave I want to visit in Yangon? When did he die here — why was he here in the first place? And why has no other visitor she has received ever asked to go to the tomb?She quickly goes into detective mode and thanks to the internet we discover the burial spot of Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last Mughal emperor, sent into exile in Burma by the British rulers of India. He died here in 1862, a frail and heartbroken man.The last emperor’s poignant story of pride and betrayal is magnificently told by William Dalrymple. But even before I read the book, Bahadur Shah Zafar’s tragic life and times had left an enduring mark.I am determined to visit his grave. And clearly my enthusiasm and determination are contagious. Not only are my friend and the guide anxious to go to the tomb, our chauffeur is equally curious.But locating the last Mughal’s final resting place on the internet is one thing; actually finding it in crowded, bustling Yangon is another. The address says it is in the vicinity of the magnificent Shwedagon Pagoda, a sprawling, glittering complex of golden stupas, meditating Buddhas and chanting monks which has long fascinated tourists, believers and non-believers.The evening before we had walked amid the shiny mirror mosaics and burning candles, along with hundreds of other enchanted visitors and pilgrims. There is much to see and fascinate. Everything looks bright and new. We are told that donations for the pagoda pour in daily, so more and more gold leaf is plastered on to the stupas.The people of Myanmar are rightfully proud of their Buddhist heritage —and look after it devotedly.The last Mughal emperor’s surroundings are quieter and more modest. We drive around for a bit before we find the street and then spend several minutes peering behind high walls before we come upon the unassuming yellow mausoleum.We are both saddened and reassured by what we see: the shrine is certainly small and unimpressive. But it is clean and well-looked after, with dense trees providing much-needed shade in the hot Yangon sun.We are welcomed with open arms by the friendly caretaker who is clearly thrilled to have such curious visitors to talk to. He takes us to the graves of the emperor, (actually Bahadur Shah Zafar is buried just below his “official” grave on the top floor, he tells us) his wife and granddaughter and reads out the Urdu poems inscribed on the walls, along with their English translation.There are paintings and some very moving pictures of the frail and dying king and his family. The pain on his gaunt face pierces our hearts. The caretaker tells us that his visitors are usually from South Asia — as are the donations which pay for the maintenance of the mausoleum. There are prayers on Fridays, he says proudly. “Bahadur Shah Zafar may have died a lonely and broken man — but his memory is alive,” he says proudly.For a few moments, time seems to stand still as we hear the story of the last Mughal and his life in exile. His grave was left unmarked and forgotten until 1903, the caretaker tells us, when after some protests from the Muslim community in Myanmar, the British rulers of Burma constructed a stone slab to mark the site. The spot was “lost again” only to be found in 1991. A mausoleum was constructed and inaugurated in 1994.And then just as suddenly, we are back in vibrant, modern-day Yangon. Like much of South-East Asia, Myanmar is on a roll. Encouraged by moves towards political reform and opening by the military junta which ruled the country for decades, business and investments are pouring in.China, Japan, India and neighbouring South-East Asian Nations are vying for contracts and deals while more cautious Europeans and Americans lag behind. Tourists from the four corners of the world are anxious to visit the country before it loses its authenticity.During our week in the country, the talk is about upcoming elections in November and whether or not there will be a change in the constitution so that Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of the nation’s slain founding father, can stand for president.Myanmar’s constitution forbids anybody with a foreign spouse or children from becoming president. Since Suu Kyi’s late husband was British, as are their two sons, there is little doubt that the provision was drafted exclusively to prevent her from becoming president.Like many countries, Myanmar is full of contradictions: newspapers talk of peace treaties between the government and some of the country’s 135 ethnic groups. Little notice is paid, however, to the plight of the more than one million Rohingya Muslims (who are not recognised as citizens but referred to as “Bengalis”) who have been herded into squalid camps by the Buddhist majority in western Rakhine state.Much to the dismay of many observers, Suu Kyi has yet to condemn the violence. But Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia are pushing for more humane treatment for the Rohingyas as are the European Union, the US and international human rights groups.Dodgy politics coexist with a booming economy, huge SUVs hog the congested roads of Yangon while motorcycles and bicycles are banned from the streets and donations to monasteries and pagodas keep pouring in while schools and hospitals struggle to survive.As we travel across the country, soaking in the beauty of Bagan and the past glories of Mandalay, I have no doubt that the people of Myanmar are determined to join their South-East Asian counterparts in their march towards progress and democracy. And neither the current government — or for that matter Aung San Suu Kyi — can stand in their way.

11/25/14 11/25/14

View from Abroad: Europe waits for trade talks but Modi ‘looks East’ (Originally published 22/11/2014 at dawn.com)

These are busy times for Asian leaders — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the busiest.Last week as he criss-crossed Asia, clinching business deals, attracting much-needed investments and building strategic alliances, Modi found time for a quick meeting with the European Union’s outgoing European Council President Herman Van Rompuy to underline that the “EU should take advantage of the new economic environment in India”.The two men apparently agreed that the United Nations should hold an annual international “Yoga Day”.But not much was apparently said on the EU-India free trade agreement that the two sides have been trying to negotiate for the last seven years and which now seems to have run into the ground.EU officials are still hoping that the negotiations will be back on track soon. But the Indian leader is too busy looking elsewhere.As of this autumn, Modi has his nation and the rest of Asia abuzz with his determination to inject new life into India’s “Look East” policy which, following his incessant Asian travels, including recent talks with Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) and other Asian leaders in Myanmar, has morphed into what Modi proudly describes as a “Look East — and Act East” policy.India’s decision to step up its game in Asia is no surprise. As an emerging power with “great power” ambitions, India has no option but to seek a stronger role in a volatile neighbourhood and a region marked by often-changing geopolitical rivalries and alliances. Also, tapping into the region’s dynamic economies is critical for India’s own growth and reform agenda.Certainly, China has the funds needed to help finance India’s infrastructure requirements while Japan and South Korea have the technical experience and expertise. South-east Asian markets are important for Indian investors and exporters. Sustainable peace with Pakistan may still be a long way off but is essential for India’s development and peace and stability in the region.While in Myanmar, Modi made the headlines by pushing his “Make in India” campaign, which aims to turn the country into a global manufacturing hub, by cutting red tape, upgrading infrastructure and making it easier for companies to do business. Modi promised to implement long-delayed plans to boost trade and deepen ties with Asean so that current trade flows could rise from $75 billion today to $100 billion by 2015.In fact, the policy is not new. India has long spoken of developing a “Look East” policy, but has lagged behind China in forging ties with emerging economies in South-East Asia. Tackling China’s influence on Asean and South Asia is still a challenge but India benefits from the fact that Japan, Asean and others in the region are certainly looking to reduce their economic dependence on Beijing by reaching out to Delhi.Indian commentators also underline that Modi used the Asean meeting to articulate for the first time India’s intent to enhance “balance” in the Asia Pacific region, arguing that the word was carefully chosen to reflect India’s shared concerns with other Asian countries about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.Interestingly, Indian defence cooperation is being stepped up with several Indian Ocean states including Sri Lanka and Maldives. India will supply four naval patrol vessels to Hanoi as part of $100 million Line of Credit signed last month. The two countries have also decided to ramp up cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon, civil nuclear energy and space.Given Modi’s focus on the Asia-Pacific, the EU’s new leaders may have to wait a long time before he signals a real interest in upgrading bilateral ties.It is no secret that the EU-India strategic partnership needs a shot in the arm and that trade and investment flows are much too modest. But negotiations for an India-EU Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) — the most important issue on the bilateral agenda — have lasted for seven years, with no end in sight. And hopes that New Delhi would put energy and effort into the successful conclusion of the elusive deal have not materialised, with differences over tariffs and market access as well as questions related to the protection of intellectual property rights continuing to impede progress.The pact could be signed in 2015 — but only if both sides can summon up the political will to look beyond the array of technical issues to the deeper strategic importance of their relations.Modi and the EU’s new leaders face the uphill task of taking the relationship to a higher and more genuinely strategic level, a move that would benefit both sides.In addition to the geopolitical value of such a decision, European investors are willing and eager to enter the Indian market. European know-how could be valuable to India’s reform and modernisation agenda. Europe, meanwhile, needs new markets to keep its modest economy on track.To inject momentum into the relationship, both sides will need to make an effort. EU and Indian leaders have not met for summit talks since February 2012. An early meeting between Modi and the EU’s new presidents of the European Commission and the EU Council this autumn will therefore be crucial in signalling a fresh start in relations.