Europeans eager to trade, do business with Iran (Originally published 18/07/2015 at Dawn.com)

Suddenly last week, after weeks of acrimony, arguments and threats, the dark clouds over the European Union appeared to clear slightly.

EU leaders fought off fears of a Greek exit from the Eurozone by hammering out a deal to bail out the devastated Greek economy. And finally following years of hard bargaining, international negotiators, including EU officials, clinched an agreement on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme.Europeans’ response to the two breakthrough accords has been quite different. The deal on Greece has left a sour taste, with Europeans divided on just how much more economic pain the Greeks can and should be forced to take. In contrast, there is no rift in Europe over the accord with Iran. European governments, business and public opinion have been largely positive about prospects of a normalisation of relations with Tehran.In fact they want more than normalisation. As was the case two years ago when Myanmar finally opened up, Europeans are anxious and eager to make their mark in Iran as quickly as possible, before the competition heats up.European foreign ministries want to re-establish diplomatic relations with Tehran, the EU plans to open its own office, and European business leaders and investors can’t wait to enter the Iranian market.On the geostrategic front, there are hopes that an end to Iranian isolation will change the political landscape in the Middle East by reducing power and influence of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.True, there is also wariness of Tehran’s ambitions and role in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. But few in Europe give credence to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s quasi-hysterical rants against Tehran. And unlike in the United States, there are no major European political parties who oppose the re-establishment of relations with Iran.The race to be the first one to visit the country has already begun. A procession of high-ranking visitors is expected to head to Tehran, with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius already saying he will go soon.British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said he hopes the UK and Iran can fully reopen their respective embassies by year end. Ties between the UK and Iran had plunged after the 2011 storming of the British embassy in Tehran.And European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who presided over the nuclear negotiations, also wants to open the first EU mission in Tehran in 2016 as part of what she hopes will be a “new chapter” in relations.The focus is very much on the Iranian market and the country’s appetite for European exports, investments, technology and know-how after years of life under sanctions.Europe’s interest in Iran’s oil and gas sector is high as EU nations seek to reduce their dependence on imports of Russian gas. But Europe faces tough competition from American companies, Russia and China.Chinese analysts are already predicting a surge in trade and business flows between China and Iran and point to the contribution Beijing can make to upgrade and build Iranian infrastructure.Iran is also widely expected to become a key participant in China’s ambitious ‘One Belt, One Road’ connectivity network linking China to other parts of Asia and Europe.In contrast to China, EU policymakers, focused almost completely on the nuclear issue, have not yet given serious consideration to ways of upgrading ties with Tehran.EU foreign policy chief Mogherini talks ambitiously of bringing together all key Middle East countries, including Iran, “to see if some form of regional cooperation is possible”.While the vision of Middle East regional cooperation is noble, there is, of course, very little hope that — at least in the short to medium-term — Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries will be able to sit at the same table, much less work together.The EU could, however, insist that Iran should be allowed to participate in the Geneva talks on ending the civil war in Syria. Tehran could also be helpful in EU efforts to build a strategy to counter the self-styled Islamic State.Given the EU’s demands that Iran reduce the rate of executions and eradicate torture, discussions on human rights are likely to be difficult.EU-Iran cooperation is likely to be most buoyant if the focus is on practical questions such as environmental protection, water management, infrastructure development, technology transfer, and academic and cultural exchanges.Europe’s normalisation of relations with Iran is likely to be slow and steady as European governments and Tehran get to know each other again and step by step build trust.Ironically, in fact, today there seems to be more trust between the EU and Iran than between Greeks and their fellow Europeans.

View from Abroad: EU must engage urgently with China (Originally published 15/11/2014 at dawn.com)

China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.