Bandung and a changing world order
For proof that the world is a much-changed place, look no further than last week’s impressive Asia-Africa conference in Bandung, Indonesia, marking the 60th anniversary of the original Cold War era summit in the same city led by Indonesia’s then leader-Sukarno.The talk in Bandung six decades ago among representatives from twenty-nine Asian and African governments of Asian and African nations was of the role of the “Third World” in the Cold War, economic development, and decolonisation.The meeting’s final resolution laid the foundation for the nonaligned movement during the Cold War. The heady talk among leaders was on the potential for collaboration among Asian and African nations and their determination to reduce their reliance on Europe and North America.Fast forward to Bandung last week and replace references to the “Third World” with the more modern “emerging nations” and it’s clear that Asia and Africa have changed dramatically since 1955.The two regions – as well as Latin America – are simultaneously driving the transformation of the global landscape and thriving because of it.The mood may be morose in Washington and EU capitals – but Asia, Africa and Latin America are on a roll. Trade is booming – including between the three regions, investments are pouring in and an emerging middle class is changing social, political and economic lifestyles.Interestingly – and worth reflecting on – is the fact that much of the transformation is the result of China’s rise and its gradual but sustained emergence as an important regional and global actor.The West, especially the United States, is finding it difficult to adjust and accommodate the deep-seated paradigm shift in power taking place around it. That’s not difficult to understand given that the US as the current dominant global power has the most to lose from the shift of power to the East.But Europe also needs to come to terms with a changed world. Here in Brussels as the European Union prepares to hammer out a new European Security Strategy to replace the one written 12 years ago it needs to pay special attention to the myriad ways in which the world is becoming different, almost daily. And it needs to forge a new outlook on China and Asia.The world viewed from Europe is indeed violent, messy and dangerous. The EU faces a host of domestic problems – Greece, unemployment, and of course the deteriorating refugee crisis. Europe is surrounded as some say by a “ring of fire”: in the east by Russia and in the south, by a turbulent Arab world.But the EU should be wary of projecting its own morosity on other regions – and indeed of basing its assumptions of Asia’s future on Europe’s tragic, war-racked past.While Europe and its neighbours are in turmoil, the rest of the world is doing better than expected – and certainly better than 60 years ago.The economies of most of the African and Asian countries gathered in Bandung are booming. Steps are being taken to combat poverty, there were successful elections in Afghanistan and Indonesia – and changes are underway in Myanmar and Vietnam next year.Emerging countries are setting their own agenda, defining their interests, building partnerships and rallying together to forge a joint vision for the future.This time the talk is also of breaking the chains of colonialism – but of a different kind; today’s African and Asian governments want an end to the economic domination of the West and of Western insitutions.As the Bandung meeting pointed out last week, the focus is on establishing a new global order that is open to emerging economic powers and leaves the "obsolete ideas" of Bretton Woods institutions in the past.President Xi Jinping of China told the conference that “a new type of international relations” was needed to encourage cooperation between Asian and African nations.Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, the conference host, said those who still insisted that global economic problems could only be solved through the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank were clinging to a long-gone past.“There needs to be change,” he said. "It's imperative that we build a new international economic order that is open to new emerging economic powers.”In 1955, the 29 countries which met in Bandung accounted for less than a quarter of global economic output at that time; today they contribute to more than half of the world economy.Many of those countries, such as China, India and Indonesia, are now themselves at top tables like the Group of 20 and wield significant economic power.Indonesia’s Jokowi said the group was meeting again in a changed world but still needed to stand together against the domination of an unspecified “certain group of countries” to avoid unfairness and global imbalances.The creation of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is one way in which emerging nations are challenging the Western-dominated economic stage. While the US has decided to stay out of the AIIB, many European countries have offered to be founding members of the new bank.Asia’s future will depend to a large extent on the economic future of China. And on relations between China and Japan.Tensions between Asia’s two biggest economies have flared in recent years due to feuds over wartime history as well as territorial rows and regional rivalry.Memories of Japan’s past military aggression run deep in China, and Beijing has repeatedly urged Japan to face up to history.In an encouraging move, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Xi did meet in Bandung, prompting hopes of a cautious rapprochement between the two economic giants.Peace and prosperity in Asia hinge on cordial relations, even partnerships between the region’s leading powers. And who knows if China and Japan can sidestep their historical enmities, perhaps India and Pakistan could – one day – do the same?
View from Abroad: Keep watching Jokowi (Originally published 1/11/2014 at dawn.com)
You heard it here first. Two years ago, I predicted in this column (Hope amidst the madness Sept 29, 2012) that Joko Widodo, the then newly-elected governor of Jakarta, was poised to become the next president of Indonesia.On Oct 20, that prediction came true as Widodo — better known as Jokowi — became the leader of the world’s most populous Muslim majority country, fourth largest democracy and an impressive Asian economic power house.In 2012, I remember coming back from a long study tour in Indonesia where practically everyone I met had waxed lyrical about the governor of Jakarta. I was intrigued — and then I was convinced. Jokowi is special.Jokowi and Indonesia matter. They matter to Indonesia’s 250 million citizens, to the wider south-east Asian region — and also to an increasingly chaotic and depressingly violent Muslim world.Much has been written about Indonesia’s new head of state: by all accounts, he is low-key, soft-spoken, dedicated, hard-working and, in a country once ruled by the army and an unsavoury elite, he is “a man truly of the people”.He is therefore an unusual and outstanding political phenomenon. His origins are modest. He was drawn to politics late in life. In a country where family and background counts, he breaks the rules by having no army or political family connections.Comparisons have been made to US President Barack Obama. Both men emerged “out of nowhere” to lead their nations, caught the popular imagination by breaking with the past, reached out to young people and brought a message of change and hope to a tired nation.Look carefully, and the two men even share a striking physical resemblance.As Jokowi takes power, there are concerns that he may also run afoul of an old guard which is reluctant to cede power and privilege to a less skilful and less experienced political newcomer.But there is a difference. Obama heads an economy which is just beginning to sputter to life after years of stagnation. America is desperate to look inwards even as it is pulled screaming and kicking into new military adventures. Public support for Obama is eroding fast.Jokowi, in contrast, has become the leader of one of Asia’s most exciting countries and dynamic economies. Indonesia still faces an array of political, economic and societal challenges — and none of these will disappear under the new president’s watch.Significantly, what happens in Indonesia will not just stay in Indonesia — it will have strong repercussions across the country itself, the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) and a curious Muslim world.Jokowi’s election is hopefully a fatal blow to the old-style politicians like Prabowo Subianto — a former general once married to the daughter of Indonesian dictator Suharto — who was also a candidate for president and refused at first to acknowledge defeat.In a region not noted for its espousal of democratic values and human rights, Indonesia stands out for having successfully ensured the transfer of power from one elected president to another.For many years, Indonesia has engaged in a massive soft power exercise of trying to export democracy to neighbouring nations, including Myanmar. Jakarta has taken the lead in trying to inject some real “people power” into Asean.Finally, Jokowi offers welcome relief in a Muslim world dominated by dictators, monarchs and unsavoury politicians.Still, it won’t be easy. Jokowi may have claimed the presidency, but he does not have a majority in parliament which last month controversially blocked the direct election of governors, mayors and district chiefs, a move which could prevent the rise of figures outside the political establishment, like Jokowi. The law is expected to be repealed — but it signals the tough political battle ahead for the new president.It’s been a good few years for the Indonesian economy — but growth is slowing down as the commodity boom wanes and exports decline. The government is under pressure to cut its generous fuel subsidies, a move which could spark civil unrest.Indonesia has not suffered a major terrorist strike since 2009 when a pair of luxury Jakarta hotels were targeted by suicide bombers but its brand of moderate and tolerant Islam is under threat from extremist forces. The country is trying hard to fight the spread of Wahabi Islam. Fighting corruption remains a challenge across the country.Most significantly, the new president faces the challenge of distancing himself from Megawati Sukarnoputri, a one-time president of the Indonesia and the daughter of the country’s first post-independence president, Sukarno.As chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which put up Jokowi as presidential candidate, Megawati still wields enormous influence and has used it to determine the members of the new president’s cabinet.Indonesian newspapers warn that the new government is the result of compromises between Jokowi and Megawati and that contrary to expectations that the new president would appoint a team of technocrats, at least 21 ministers in the 34-member cabinet are either representatives of political parties or have links to political figures.Most damagingly, is the inclusion of Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter as a coordinating minister for human resources development and culture.“We can only imagine that the shoe is too big for her,” warned the Jakarta Post.“We are disappointed because we had high expectations,” the newspaper warned. However, there is praise for the appointment of eight female ministers, including the country’s first-ever woman foreign minister, Retno Marsudi.As I said in an earlier column, the world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply.Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21st century power. And they are watching Jokowi.