VIEW FROM ABROAD: Turkey and EU (Originally published 10/10/2015 at Dawn.com)

Crises can result in strange bedfellows. Having criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “authoritarian” ways, European Union leaders are now turning to the Turkish leader to help ease the unprecedented influx of refugees on to EU territory.As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg: “In the refugee crisis, Turkey and the EU walk together and work together.”Not surprisingly Erdogan is making the most of it. The Turkish president has not endeared himself to democrats and human rights activists at home or abroad with his clampdown on the media, arrest of opponents, the crackdown on civil society protests, lavish spending on his official residence and other actions, including targeting of Syrian Kurdish strongholds.Relations between the EU and Turkey have been on the backburner for several years as the 28-nation bloc has fretted and sweated at the rollback of reforms in a country which is a candidate to join the EU.EU membership negotiations have been put on hold. Turkey has sulked, saying its interests lie to its east, not the west.The EU has raged against Ankara’s disregard for European values. Relations are still strained. But both Turkey and the EU are more vulnerable than in the past.Ankara’s dreams and ambitions of becoming an indispensable regional player have been destroyed by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s refusal to listen to Turkey. As a result, Erdogan’s influence in the region is not as potent as it was a few years ago.Europe’s many vulnerabilities are common knowledge. Even as Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has opened the borders to refugees from Syria, the sudden and massive arrival of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers has eroded public and political support for the move.And so to the negotiating table where Erdogan and the EU engage in horse-trading over the fate of refugees from Syria and other countries in conflict even as they try to put their own relations back on track.According to media reports, the Europeans are offering eventually to take half a million Syrians from new refugee and asylum-processing camps they would co-fund in Turkey in return for Ankara tightening its borders to stop people being smuggled in hazardous vessels to Greece, and agreeing to take back migrants who make it “illegally” to Europe via Turkey.As part of any possible pact, Erdogan is asking for a relaxation in visa requirements for Turks travelling to Europe. He also wants the EU to list Turkey as “a safe third country”, effectively whitewashing Ankara’s increasingly repressive policies and deteriorating human rights and media freedoms record.“Europe has to manage its borders better. We expect Turkey to do the same,” said Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, following talks with Erdogan. “The situation where hundreds of thousands are fleeing to the European Union from Turkey must be stopped.”Erdogan responded that Ankara was hosting almost 10 times as many Syrian refugees as the EU. While open to talks with Brussels, he said the key to stopping the flow of refugees was to establish a no-fly zone over the Turkish-Syria border and a buffer zone in northern Syria.This is viewed as a non-starter in Europe and in Washington, but Tusk said: “The European Union is ready to take up all issues with Turkey so we can also discuss a possible buffer zone in Syria.”Turkey is home to two million Syrian refugees and is the source of most of the influx into Europe of recent months. A pact with Turkey is now seen as the key to the effort to turn chaos into control.The aim is to have the Turks and the Greeks mount joint border controls at sea, organised by Frontex, the EU’s borders agency and that intercepted boat people be turned back to Turkey.Meanwhile, in an unusual joint appeal, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have urged European politicians to pull together amid multiple crises in a bid to heal EU divisions caused by the influx of refugees, debt crises and encroaching nationalist sentiment.In separate addresses to the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, both leaders underlined the risks now besetting the EU’s 28 nations.“The debate is not about less Europe or more Europe,” Mr Hollande told politicians, evoking the question of national sovereignty besetting member nations. “It is about the affirmation of Europe or the end of Europe. Yes, the end of Europe.”Chancellor Merkel, who has come forward as the champion of refugees flowing into Europe, said overcoming the refugee crisis together is a key challenge for the European Union.“It is precisely now,” she said, “that we need more Europe ... If we overcome that, we will be stronger after the crisis than before.”It was the first such joint appearance in Strasbourg since 1989, when West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and French president Francois Mitterrand spoke days after the fall of the Berlin Wall.“In the refugee crisis we must not succumb to the temptation of falling back into acting in nationalistic terms,” said Ms Merkel, standing next to French President Hollande, adding: “National solo efforts are no solution to the refugee crisis.”Significantly even as the two EU leaders were speaking in Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that a combined EU naval mission known as EU Navfor Med will now be able “to board, search and seize vessels in international waters, [after which] suspected smugglers and traffickers will be transferred to the Italian judicial authorities”.Yes, Europe is confused, overwhelmed and uncertain about what to do next. President Erdogan, in contrast, knows exactly what he wants: respect and recognition from a Europe that has too often disregarded Turkey as an important ally. And, ultimately, Turkish membership of the 28-nation European Union.

View From Abroad: European lessons for Asian security (Originally published 14/02/2015 at dawn.com)

The just-negotiated ceasefire to stem the conflict in eastern Ukraine may or may not last. But the hard work put in by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Francois Hollande as they negotiated for over 18 hours with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russia’s Vladimir Putin points to the still-potent and constructive security role that European states can play in their neighbourhood.It also underlines that — when it comes to the crunch — it’s Germany, France, and sometimes Britain, rather than the European Union which can do the hard labour involved in defusing tensions and securing a semblance of peace.True, the crisis has spotlighted divisions in the European Union over relations with Russia. The current sanctions regime against Moscow is not popular with all EU states.And certainly, the collapse of previous ceasefires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. But before they throw up their hands in despair and accept confrontation with Russia — or follow America in seeking to send military aid to the Ukrainian army — European leaders will certainly try — and try again — to secure peace in the neighbourhood.And the lesson that peace is worth patiently, painstakingly and repeatedly striving for is an important one for Asia’s many star-crossed nations.This is also why the new European Security Strategy that the EU intends to hammer out by the end of the year should not ignore the different ways in which Europe can help Asia to deal with its many security challenges.Much has changed in the world since the last European Security Strategy was released in 2003, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. As EU foreign and security policy chief Federica Mogherini pointed out at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the world today is a disorderly place. “The world is far from being a unipolar one, nor is it truly multipolar ... maybe we are living in times of an absence of poles,” Mogherini underlined, adding: “The big question for all of us is ... how do we manage complexity?”Asians are also struggling with the same challenge. For the first time in history, Asia is home to four — even five — important powers: a rising and increasingly assertive China, Japan that wants more influence, Korea searching for an expanded regional role, India which is being wooed by many as a counterweight to China and Asean, the regional grouping which has made peace and cooperation its leitmotif for many years.Trade and investment are the backbone of EU-Asia relations so far. But an EU-Asia conversation on security is set to be the new frontier. The EU cannot afford to be outside the loop of the dramatic geopolitical power games, rivalry and tension being played out in Asia between China, Japan and India — and the 10 south-east Asian members of Asean. Increased spending on arms across Asia is one indication that the region feels insecure, fragile and uneasy.The so-called Asian “paradox” — the fact that the region’s economies are closely knit together but governments are still grappling with historical tensions, is pushing some in Asia to take another, closer look at how Europe has been able to deal with its own tensions.Asian perceptions of security are also changing. The focus on territorial security is shifting to the importance of non-traditional security threats, such as climate change, pandemics, extremism and human trafficking, with some Asians putting the emphasis on “human security”. Across Asia, there is a recognition of the need for a collective or cooperative security architecture. But cooperative security in Asia remains underdeveloped, lacking collective security, regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution functions.Differing threat perceptions, mutual distrust, territorial disputes, concerns over sovereignty make things very difficult.But as their views of security evolve, for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner for dealing with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change.Asian views of Europe’s security role are changing. Unease about the dangerous political and security fault lines that run across the region and the lack of a strong security architecture has prompted many in Asia to take a closer look at Europe’s experience in ensuring peace, easing tensions and handling conflicts.As Asia grapples with historical animosities and unresolved conflicts, earlier scepticism about Europe’s security credentials are giving way to recognition of Europe’s “soft power” in peace-making and reconciliation, crisis management, conflict resolution and preventive diplomacy, human rights, the promotion of democracy and the rule of law. Europeans, too, are becoming more aware of the global implications of instability in Asia. Clearly, the EU as the world’s largest trading bloc needs safe trading routes and sea lanes.Also, Europeans are now recognising that fragile peace in Asia will have an enormous impact on global security. That is one reason that the EU has signed Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and is seeking entry to the East Asia Summit in order to sit beside the United States and Russia.An important challenge for the EU in its relations with Asia is to retain its identity vis-à-vis the much more dominant role played by the US. As it fashions its distinctive security role in Asia, the EU must make an effort to its own distinct profile in promoting multilateral approaches, the rule of law, good governance and regional integration.And that’s what makes the progress made with Russia over Ukraine so important.