ASEM: a right platform for conversation on shared global challenges

This is just the right time for a serious Asia-Europe conversation on shared global challenges. With Brexit around the corner, the world economy in poor shape, growing inequalities and discontent with globalisation on the rise, Asian and European leaders meeting in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, on July 15-16, have a great deal to talk about.Add to the list, an increased disconnect and mistrust between governments and citizens — especially between leaders and young people — the rise in populism, fears of uncontrolled immigration and violent extremism, and it’s clear that leaders at the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit in Mongolia will have a full agenda.Asian leaders and policymakers may believe that most of these issues are of relevance only to Europe. The truth is more complicated. The Brexit referendum last month has certainly highlighted the strength of these and other preoccupations among British (and other European voters). But many of these worries are shared by citizens across the world.Asia is as unequal a continent as is Europe. Winners and losers of globalisation exist on both continents and terrorists pose a challenge to Asian and European states alike. Even though they are masters of grabbing the headlines in Europe, populist politicians with simple messages exist in Asia as well. And leaders in both Asia and Europe need to build stronger connections with young people and respond to their worries about education, jobs, exclusion and marginalisation.It is important to have these discussions within ASEM. Given its informal format and structure, ASEM offers a unique platform for an open, no holds-barred high-level brainstorm on issues of mutual interest. The leaders’ retreat session is especially suited to the debate on shared challenges.In fact, it is the need for such a conversation that led to the creation of ASEM 20 years ago — and that is likely to give ASEM renewed geo-strategic relevance and increased credibility in the coming years.ASEM stakeholders — including policymakers, members of parliament, civil society representatives, academics and members of think tanks as well as young people and business leaders — are engaged in impressive efforts to make ASEM fit for purpose in the 21st Century.The emphasis should be on new ideas and increased connectivity as part of a potent new recipe for injecting new energy and dynamism into ASEM.Transforming ASEM into a hub or network of ideas and initiatives will give the Asia-Europe relationship a geo-strategic raison d’être, which it has lost over the last two decades. The platform for networking, dialogue and cooperation it provides today makes it even more essential in an interdependent and complex world. Asia-Europe connectivity is now a fact of life and reinforcing these networks through stronger institutional, infrastructure, digital and people-to-people linkages is rightfully emerging as a central element of efforts to revive and renew ASEM.ASEM has met many of its original goals by providing Asian and European leaders with opportunities to get to know one another, encouraging greater people-to-people understanding and providing the two regions with avenues to explore new areas of cooperation in the political, economic and social sectors.An array of ASEM meetings allows policymakers from both regions to exchange views on regional and global issues and strengthen their economic relations through greater trade and investment. Additionally, meetings between business leaders, parliamentarians, academics and civil society actors — and young leaders — have allowed ASEM to make important headway in enhancing mutual Asia-Europe understanding and upgrading the quality and diversity of the Asia-Europe conversation.While these connections are important, ASEM can do much more by playing a more central role than it has so far in generating, nourishing and disseminating new ideas about living and working together in a globalised world.This requires the setting up of an “ASEM Brains Trust” or network of think tanks/studies centres, which can help to enliven ASEM by turning into a market place for ideas and initiatives. Proposals and ideas generated within such a studies centre should be fed directly into the work of senior ASEM officials and the activities of other stakeholders. Such tasks could be performed by an ASEM coordination centre of the kind being recommended by Mongolia.This combination of ideas and connectivity allowing for a permanent circulation and exchange of thoughts, knowledge, experience and expertise can revive ASEM for the third decade. The summit in Ulaanbataar can and should set ASEM on the road to renewal. The 21st Century is proving to be turbulent, violent and unpredictable. ASEM can help increase Asian and European understanding of a very complicated world.

View from Abroad: Life in Vietnam, Asia’s reborn tiger economy (Originally published 28/03/2015 at dawn.com)

The death last week of Singapore’s much acclaimed statesman Lee Kuan Yew has spotlighted world attention on tiny Singapore’s transformation from a tropical backwater to an affluent global city in just one generation. Certainly, Singapore stands tall in Asia as a formidable city state which proves that sometimes in geopolitics size does not matter.

But in South-East Asia, it’s not just Singapore that impresses.Travelling in Vietnam this week, it’s striking just how quickly this once war-devastated country has dusted off a bloody past, in favour of a new life and persona as one of this region’s most exciting economies.Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon, buzzes with excitement as cars, motorcycles, buses weave their noisy way around surprisingly green urban centres — and some very narrow streets. Cafes, restaurants and bars are heaving with people. New businesses keep popping up, old ones are still thriving.A Belgian-Vietnamese friend tells me the country’s growing middle class has an appetite for foreign goods, the more luxurious, the better. Certainly, more and more European and Japanese cars on the roads are big and shiny, competing for space — and winning — against the ubiquitous scooters and motorbikes. Everyone has his/her palm pressed firmly on the car horn.This is China as it was twenty years ago, friends tell me. Noisy, crowded, the old and ramshackle giving way to the new and glittering. The skyscrapers going up, the five-star hotels, the glamorous department stores boasting French luxury brands are a foretaste of the big metropolis, a mini Shanghai, that Ho Chi Minh City is poised to become. For the moment, it is still possible to find serene hideaways where time appears to have stood still. But not for long.And certainly not at the university I visit on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City where students rush from class to class, stopping occasionally to sit down and play the pianos which are strewn around the campus.At the lecture I give on Europe, Asia and Vietnam, the students are serious and attentive — but impassive. I wonder in despair if I am getting through. But then the questions come fast and furious. I am grilled mercilessly on the impact of globalisation, my view of Vietnam, why Vietnam and the EU are signing a free trade agreement, how do you distinguish between good and bad journalists — and so on.Globalisation means losing our identity, they tell me, oblivious to the fact that in their skinny jeans and sneakers, carrying backpacks and peering into their smartphones, they have bought into globalisation with a vengeance. I point it out, they stare at me incredulously. This is not globalisation, this is life, they argue back. Exactly.Later as we take pictures and exchange addresses, I tell them they are lucky to be living in rising Asia, with jobs, hope — and pollution, one says interrupting me. Yes, pollution, urbanisation and overcrowding. But also jobs and growth — the two things we need in Europe. Puzzlement shows in their eyes.Their self-confidence is justified. Perched along one of the world’s most crucial shipping routes, and with a young and growing population, Vietnam is — once again — being tipped for economic lift-off, after years of disappointment.The news reports I read underline that money pouring into the South-East Asian economy from the likes of manufacturers Samsung Electronics Company and Intel Corporation is giving Vietnam a second run at becoming Asia’s next tiger economy.According to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, the country has the potential to become one of the world’s fastest-growing economies over the period to 2050. Not only is the South-East Asian nation gaining ground as a cheaper manufacturing alternative to neighbouring China, Vietnam is also a politically palatable destination for Japanese firms boosting investment in the region amid recurring Sino-Japan spats.“Vietnam is really the big winner from China losing its competitiveness because of rising wages” and a strong currency, say specialists. As labour costs rise in China, foreign investors are knocking on Vietnam’s doors.The list of those wishing to cash in is long, led by China and Japan but also including Singapore, Taiwan, the United States and the European Union.Vietnam and the US are working hard to strengthen ties, including in the security and defence sector, with Hanoi now demanding the full lifting of the arms embargo that was eased last year. Vietnam will be taking part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, led by the US.Relations with Beijing are fraught over rival territorial claims in the South China Sea although tensions have eased in recent months and the Chinese and Vietnamese communist parties retain close ties.The EU, meanwhile is hoping to clinch negotiations on a bilateral, free trade agreement with Vietnam before too long.European diplomats tell me the country is an exciting destination for European exporters and investors.At more meetings — this time in Hanoi — the discussion turns to journalism, open societies and freedom of expression. Vietnam’s Communist Party keeps a tight lid on the media, including bloggers. The EU and the US are pressing for change and have an ongoing human rights dialogue with Hanoi. But it’s a question of one step forward, two steps back.As in China, the government appears to have struck a defining big bargain with its citizens: we’ll provide growth and progress in exchange for your loyalty. The trade-off appears to be working. So far.I see the bright lights, the fancy restaurants and the big cars. There is also still poverty and underdevelopment. I am enchanted by the friendliness of the people, young and old. Traditional and modern mix easily in the streets. There is no doubt: Vietnam is on the move. And it’s going to keep going up

Tigers, jaguars and global growth (Originally published 14/03/11)

The impact of Asia’s rise on the European Union and the United States dominates world headlines. The focus is also often on the pros and cons of China’s growing presence in Africa. Lost in the reports is mention of Latin America’s booming economies – and the role played by ascending Asia in helping to transform the region.Latin America is rapidly emerging as a global economic power. And deepening economic links between Asia’s booming economies and Latin America have been pivotal in driving forward this evolution.This is clearly good news for both regions – and for the global economy. Increasing trade connections between Asia and Latin America have helped shelter both regions from the worst effects of the economic crisis affecting the US and the EU.The EU and the US have long urged developing countries to step up “south-south” trade to boost global trade flows, help create new jobs, raise revenues and diversify export patterns.Until recently, however, globalisation was all about growing links between industrialised and emerging nations. Today, however, it’s the integration of emerging markets that has become a major engine of world growth.China is of course spearheading the drive. “Latin America is looking towards China and Asia – and China and Asia are looking right back,” underlined the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in a report published in 2008.But other Asian countries including Japan, South Korea and India, are also expanding their presence in Latin America. The Inter-American Development Bank says Asian trade with the region topped 256 billion US dollars in 2010 –more than Latin America’s annual trade with the EU and more than half of its trade with the US. China has displaced the US as Brazil’s top trading partner.The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates intra-emerging market trade rose on average by 18 per cent per year from 2000 to 2008, faster than commerce between emerging and industrialised nations. It totalled 2.8 trillion US dollars in 2008, about half of emerging-market trade with all countries.The rise in south-south trade is impressive. Chinese exports to other emerging markets, accounted for 9.5 per cent of GDP in 2008, compared with 2 per cent in 1985. India’s exports rose to 7.3 per cent from 1.5 per cent and Brazil’s almost doubled to 6.3 per cent.It’s no secret; Asians are interested in Latin America’s natural resources. Commodity exports from Latin America to are thriving and likely to become even more buoyant as new highways being built across Latin America from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans open up new trade routes to Asia.Latin America is also an attractive market for Asia’s green technology firms. Indian pharmaceutical companies have started factories and joint ventures in Lain America and that produce millions of dollars worth of lost-cost generic drugs. Capital goods represent an estimated 54 per cent of Brazilian imports from China.There is undoubtedly trade rivalry between the two regions as low-cost Asian manufactured goods compete with Latin America’s industrial products both in the region itself and on the global stage.Asia and Latin American have so far dealt with such friction in a non-confrontational manner. Both sides have a vital interest in pushing for more dynamic south-south trade and investment flows. So does the rest of the world.