EU struggles to deal with multiple ‘first world problems’

Living in Brussels, it’s easy to be sucked into the prevailing pessimistic and heart-wrenchingly grim European Union narrative. The one that says that the EU is falling apart, Brexit will prompt other countries to leave the bloc and there’s no common ground among the remaining 27 members.

So, let’s close the EU shop and will the last one out, please turn off the lights. And please do it quickly. Now!

Really? Is it that bad? Or is it the case — as a Chinese friend said to me this week — that European leaders are just suffering from a particularly bad case of the blues. Or as she put it: “Why can’t European leaders get their act together and stop whining and whinging about their ‘first world problems’.”

And whining they definitely are. In separate public statements last week both Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President and Donald Tusk, the EU Council President — the two men and rivals who run two key EU institutions from their perch in Brussels — painted a very similar picture of a Europe ready to fall off the cliff.

It was stark stuff. “Our European Union is, at least in part, in an existential crisis.” Juncker confessed in an almost hour-long “State of the Union” speech to the European parliament.

“Never before have I seen such little common ground between our member states. So few areas where they agree to work together,” he complained.

EU member states — with Britain set to negotiate its way out of the bloc — were in a state of fragmentation. “Never before have I seen national governments so weakened by the forces of populism and paralysed by the risk of defeat in the next elections,” said Juncker.

Not to be outdone, Tusk in a similarly downbeat mood, called on EU leaders to take a “brutally honest” look at the bloc’s problems, declaring in a reference to the Brexit vote: “We must not let this crisis go to waste.”

“We can’t start our discussion ... with this kind of blissful conviction that nothing is wrong, that everything was and is OK,” intoned Tusk. “We have to assure ... our citizens that we have learned the lesson from Brexit.”

Interestingly, despite their differences and their rivalry, both men came up with a similar solution to putting Europe back together again: pull up the drawbridge, talk tough on security and come up with an array of new initiatives to distract, deflect and dazzle.

Tusk spoke of the need to bring back “stability and a sense of security and effective protection”. The former Polish prime minister echoed the demands being made by many other leaders from eastern Europe to enhance border security, step up counterterrorism and efforts to “bring back control of globalisation” — whatever that means.

Juncker also talked tough. The focus was on building a “better Europe that protects, empowers and defends”, he declared. His cure for ending the EU’s “collective depression” is to convince the UK to trigger the exit talks as quickly as possible, set up a common European military force and appoint an EU foreign minister.

Stronger efforts to “defend ourselves against terrorism” would include more information on “who is crossing our borders”. A so-far mysterious “automated” European Travel Information System will provide information on “who is travelling to Europe before they even get here”.

He insisted that the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, should have a seat at the table in negotiations on Syria’s future. And in case you were wondering, the EU will also strengthen its trade defence instruments and make sure China curbed its steel exports.

And oh yes, there will be free wireless internet in public places all over Europe, in the next four years.

Both Tusk and Juncker have made the headlines of course. Bad news always does.

But the more EU leaders talk down Europe — and bewilder already puzzled Europeans with more incomprehensible and makeshift initiatives — the more they perpetuate the myth of a lost continent.

The truth is more complex. Yes, Europe faces many problems. Unemployment remains high and its economy has been weakened by years of economic stagnation and budgetary austerity policies.

The East-West divide is deep. The “Gang of Four” leaders of eastern European states — Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic — want a closed-off white and Christian Europe which has little truck with diversity and inclusiveness. And so on.

But the bottom line is that despite all the moaning and groaning by policymakers, the European story remains a strong one. Europe has room for — and a need for — the million or so refugees and migrants who have arrived on its shores.

Terror attacks continue to threaten Europe’s “way of life” but intelligence agencies are getting better at foiling plots and catching would-be terrorists. The number of European “foreign fighters” heading off to Syria is going down.

The EU has brought years of peace, reconciliation among enemies, the creation of a frontier-free single market and the free movement of people.

Those watching Europe from outside recognise the EU’s strength and resilience. They also know that it is not the EU that has lost its way, its Europe’s squabbling, fractious and dysfunctional leaders.

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Turkey and EU (Originally published 10/10/2015 at Dawn.com)

Crises can result in strange bedfellows. Having criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “authoritarian” ways, European Union leaders are now turning to the Turkish leader to help ease the unprecedented influx of refugees on to EU territory.As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg: “In the refugee crisis, Turkey and the EU walk together and work together.”Not surprisingly Erdogan is making the most of it. The Turkish president has not endeared himself to democrats and human rights activists at home or abroad with his clampdown on the media, arrest of opponents, the crackdown on civil society protests, lavish spending on his official residence and other actions, including targeting of Syrian Kurdish strongholds.Relations between the EU and Turkey have been on the backburner for several years as the 28-nation bloc has fretted and sweated at the rollback of reforms in a country which is a candidate to join the EU.EU membership negotiations have been put on hold. Turkey has sulked, saying its interests lie to its east, not the west.The EU has raged against Ankara’s disregard for European values. Relations are still strained. But both Turkey and the EU are more vulnerable than in the past.Ankara’s dreams and ambitions of becoming an indispensable regional player have been destroyed by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s refusal to listen to Turkey. As a result, Erdogan’s influence in the region is not as potent as it was a few years ago.Europe’s many vulnerabilities are common knowledge. Even as Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has opened the borders to refugees from Syria, the sudden and massive arrival of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers has eroded public and political support for the move.And so to the negotiating table where Erdogan and the EU engage in horse-trading over the fate of refugees from Syria and other countries in conflict even as they try to put their own relations back on track.According to media reports, the Europeans are offering eventually to take half a million Syrians from new refugee and asylum-processing camps they would co-fund in Turkey in return for Ankara tightening its borders to stop people being smuggled in hazardous vessels to Greece, and agreeing to take back migrants who make it “illegally” to Europe via Turkey.As part of any possible pact, Erdogan is asking for a relaxation in visa requirements for Turks travelling to Europe. He also wants the EU to list Turkey as “a safe third country”, effectively whitewashing Ankara’s increasingly repressive policies and deteriorating human rights and media freedoms record.“Europe has to manage its borders better. We expect Turkey to do the same,” said Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, following talks with Erdogan. “The situation where hundreds of thousands are fleeing to the European Union from Turkey must be stopped.”Erdogan responded that Ankara was hosting almost 10 times as many Syrian refugees as the EU. While open to talks with Brussels, he said the key to stopping the flow of refugees was to establish a no-fly zone over the Turkish-Syria border and a buffer zone in northern Syria.This is viewed as a non-starter in Europe and in Washington, but Tusk said: “The European Union is ready to take up all issues with Turkey so we can also discuss a possible buffer zone in Syria.”Turkey is home to two million Syrian refugees and is the source of most of the influx into Europe of recent months. A pact with Turkey is now seen as the key to the effort to turn chaos into control.The aim is to have the Turks and the Greeks mount joint border controls at sea, organised by Frontex, the EU’s borders agency and that intercepted boat people be turned back to Turkey.Meanwhile, in an unusual joint appeal, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have urged European politicians to pull together amid multiple crises in a bid to heal EU divisions caused by the influx of refugees, debt crises and encroaching nationalist sentiment.In separate addresses to the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, both leaders underlined the risks now besetting the EU’s 28 nations.“The debate is not about less Europe or more Europe,” Mr Hollande told politicians, evoking the question of national sovereignty besetting member nations. “It is about the affirmation of Europe or the end of Europe. Yes, the end of Europe.”Chancellor Merkel, who has come forward as the champion of refugees flowing into Europe, said overcoming the refugee crisis together is a key challenge for the European Union.“It is precisely now,” she said, “that we need more Europe ... If we overcome that, we will be stronger after the crisis than before.”It was the first such joint appearance in Strasbourg since 1989, when West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and French president Francois Mitterrand spoke days after the fall of the Berlin Wall.“In the refugee crisis we must not succumb to the temptation of falling back into acting in nationalistic terms,” said Ms Merkel, standing next to French President Hollande, adding: “National solo efforts are no solution to the refugee crisis.”Significantly even as the two EU leaders were speaking in Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that a combined EU naval mission known as EU Navfor Med will now be able “to board, search and seize vessels in international waters, [after which] suspected smugglers and traffickers will be transferred to the Italian judicial authorities”.Yes, Europe is confused, overwhelmed and uncertain about what to do next. President Erdogan, in contrast, knows exactly what he wants: respect and recognition from a Europe that has too often disregarded Turkey as an important ally. And, ultimately, Turkish membership of the 28-nation European Union.

View from Abroad: Prepare for ‘hard power’ Europe (Originally published 14/03/2015 at dawn.com)

You would think the European Union has its hands full trying to ease the Eurozone crisis and make sure Greece stays within the monetary union. You also would think the 28-nation bloc was happy with its role as the world’s smartest “soft power”, with no boots on the ground but many diplomats, aid workers and trade specialists ready and willing to work for constructive change in an increasingly volatile world.You would be wrong. Forget gentle persuasion and change by incentive rather than coercion. Carrots over sticks. The EU now wants its own army. It’s a tough world and the EU wants to play as tough as the others.Resuscitating a long-held but equally long-discarded concept, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has called for the creation of a European army to make Europe count on the global stage.No more soft words. It’s going to be about soldiers, guns and aircraft carriers. Europe wants to be a hard-nosed hard power, not a softie.Certainly, Europe is right to be worried — and to want to play hard ball. The world in 2015 is messy, chaotic and often violent, with no clear centre of power. In Europe, as Russia flexes its muscles over Ukraine, many decry the end of the post-World War security order.In Asia, re-emerging nations are clamouring for recognition, jostling each other to gain the upper hand as regional and global leaders. Everywhere, international norms and institutions built in the last century are under stress, and seemingly unable to cope with the increasing demands and insecurity of the 21st century.Juncker has said a European army would restore the EU’s foreign policy standing and show it is serious about defending its values. And he insisted that it would not be in competition with Nato, the US-led Western military alliance.“With its own army, Europe could react more credibly to the threat to peace in a member state or in a neighbouring state,” the Commission chief said in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt.He added: “One wouldn’t have a European army to deploy it immediately. But a common European army would convey a clear message to Russia that we are serious about defending our European values.”Juncker’s proposal does not come out of the blue. The EU has long harboured the idea of an army and has been working hard to forge a credible common security and defence policy for several decades.European military missions are active in the Balkans, Africa and parts of Asia. The soldiers are not there, however, to fight but to monitor elections, keep the peace and manage conflicts.Also, the EU already has battle groups that are manned on a rotational basis and meant to be available as a rapid reaction force. But they have never been used in a crisis.Finally, Europe’s defence is assured by Nato. Put bluntly, if push comes to shove, the US will come to Europe’s assistance with its military might.The timing of the latest proposal is certainly linked to criticism of what many view as Europe’s lacklustre response to Russia’s annexing of Crimea last year and support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.The scene is clearly set for another long and painful — and distracting — intra-European debate. For starters, Germany likes the idea, Britain does not.German Defence Minster Ursula von der Leyen, underlined in an interview that “our future as Europeans will at some point be with a European army.”The UK government spokesman has warned, however that “our position is crystal clear that defence is a national, not an EU responsibility and that there is no prospect of that position changing and no prospect of a European army.”Geoffrey Van Orden, a conservative member of the European Parliament has accused Juncker of living in a “fantasy world”. “If our nations faced a serious security threat, who would we want to rely on — Nato or the EU? The question answers itself,” he said.Nato isn’t too happy either. The civilian and military heads of Nato have said they would welcome increased EU defence spending but cautioned the bloc against duplicating efforts.Analysts say the fundamental problem with the proposal is that, without full political union, it has no chance of becoming a credible force. So long as fierce national rivalries exist at the heart of policymaking, a common army would quickly find itself reduced to a state of impotence if required to deal with any threat to an EU state.EU member states do not often see eye to eye on major global security issues. During the 2011 Libya campaign, for example, Britain and France played a leading role in the air campaign, while Germany’s staunch opposition meant that Berlin wouldn’t even provide air-to-air refuelling tankers.More recently, deep divisions have arisen over how to tackle Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Ukraine, with Germany and Italy reluctant to support the economic sanctions advocated by Britain and its allies.Many argue that instead of getting caught up in acrimonious debates on a European army, the EU should focus on intensifying member states’ defence cooperation.“Whatever was Jean-Claude Juncker thinking when he called for the creation of an EU army? The notion may have appeal in Germany and perhaps in Luxembourg, too. Elsewhere, it serves only to supply Europhobes with more evidence of Brussels’s reflexive urge to expand its power,” said Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.Whitney may be right. But Juncker is in no mood to back down. And if Germany, the EU’s most influential member state likes the idea — and France opts in — one day there will be a European army — of sorts.

View From Abroad: Ties with China are bright spot in Europe’s foreign policy (Originally published 31/01/2015 at dawn.com)

The new European Union Commission, in office since November last year, likes to talk of a “fresh start” for Europe. There is upbeat talk of streamlining EU actions, simplifying procedures, launching a new era of mega investment projects and revving up growth.The reality is more complicated. The election in Greece of a new anti-austerity coalition government headed by Alexis Tsipras has highlighted growing dissent and anger in the Eurozone over the unrelentingly rigid fiscal policies imposed by Germany and followed by the EU.The much-publicised 315 billion euro investment plan launched by the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker may look impressive on paper but is seen by many as too woolly to really generate the growth and jobs that Europe needs so desperately.Additionally, the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier in January means that the Far Right and anti-Islamic parties continue to gain traction and become ever more dominant in the debate on immigration.It’s equally bleak on the foreign policy front. Relations with Russia remain tense. Although there is almost agreement among the 28 EU nations on the need to maintain sanctions against Moscow, depending on their national histories and experiences, European foreign ministers’ attitudes towards Moscow range from very tough (the Baltic states and some Central and Eastern European countries) to soft (Greece and Italy).In the south, the EU is struggling to forge a coherent and meaningful strategy towards Turkey and its other Southern Mediterranean neighbours as well as the Islamic State (IS). European governments also remain divided over whether or not to recognise an independent Palestinian state.Further afield, relations with Japan, South Korea and India remain largely lacklustre and uninspiring. Unlike US President Barack Obama, no European leader can claim to have a glamorous bromance with India’s celebrity Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Japan’s Shinzo Abe.Not surprisingly therefore to many observers in Asia, EU foreign policy seems slow and plodding, focused almost exclusively on trade and business and not enough on a long-term strategy for closer political and security ties.There is one striking exception, however: China. Surprisingly in a world of flux, EU-China relations remain relatively strong, vibrant and multifaceted even as Europe dithers over Russia, India and other emerging nations.The point was made at a meeting of European think tanks in Brussels this week, with experts agreeing that Europe and China must up their engagement. Such consensus is rare in Brussels, especially among academics.Certainly, it’s their mutual economic interdependence that keeps EU-China ties dynamic and buoyant. China’s growth rates may be slowing down but its appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery.China’s economic transformation — and plans for even more change in the coming years — demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology.China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments. Both sides are negotiating a formal treaty to further boost mutual investment flows.Increasingly, also in Brussels there is recognition that a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials.Europe’s one-time ambition to shape China into a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising. But there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues including relations with, Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significantly, China has invested time, effort and money into upping its relations with Europe. Beijing is working on several tracks at the same time. The focus in recently years has been on further consolidating the China-Germany “special relationship” but also reinforcing ties with former communist nations in Central and Eastern Europe, countries in the Western Balkans and also Nordic states.Responding to critics who complained that Beijing was paying too much attention to European member states and not enough to the EU, Chinese leaders have made it a point in recent months to visit Brussels.The result is a surprisingly solid and well-rounded EU-China relationship which could even become a model for other Asian countries.A key problem, however, is that the EU still treats China as just another emerging nation rather than the regional and global mammoth that it has become. The emphasis is on bread and butter issues like trade and investments, urbanisation, good and valid subjects but do not reflect Beijing’s increasing global clout and outreach.The EU should be looking at thrashing out a new narrative for China which is truly strategic and considers issues like global governance, sustainable development goals and international terrorism.In other words, as the EU and China prepare to celebrate 40 years of their relationship, the EU-China relationship should move from the ritualistic to the strategic — as quickly as possible.

View from Abroad: A new plan to revive 'Granny Europe' (Originally published 29/11/2014 at dawn.com)

Not much gets Europeans excited these days. When challenges emerge — at least on the foreign policy front — the reaction seems to be almost always the same. Problems with Russia? Let’s expand sanctions. Iran? Let’s keep sanctions. Islamic State? Let’s impose sanctions although just how and on whom is not clear.But suddenly, out of the blue, there is a bit of a buzz in the winter air. Europeans woke up on Nov 26 with a new “hero”: European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker who strode on to centre stage to promise peace — or at least jobs — in our time.It was a seminal moment. For Juncker and Europe.The former Luxembourg prime minister is facing allegations that hundreds of multi-national firms were reportedly attracted to Luxembourg in legal tax avoidance schemes. Juncker was prime minister at the time but denies wrongdoing. The new plan has the advantage of taking the almost-scandal off the media radar.For Europe, the plan could be the answer to its dreams of revival. The 28-nation bloc is still struggling to climb out of a long and painful Eurozone crisis. Growth rates are low, unemployment is tragically high, especially among young people. People are downbeat and dejected. Even the German economy is beginning to flag.To top it all, making pessimists even more downbeat, in a speech to the European Parliament last week, Pope Francis likened Europe to a grandmother, “no longer fertile and vibrant”. (I’m not sure he’s talking about the lively grannies I know though…)Anti-granny remarks aside, the pontiff’s remarks do resonate for many. Europe is getting a tad worn out, depressed and haggard. A shot of vitamins is badly needed.Enter Juncker with a magic bullet: a 315 billion euro plan to spend EU money on new infrastructure projects as part of an initiative to revive granny and help Europe grow and thrive again.Only, there is no magic involved. There will be hardly any new money — only €21bn in EU funds as a guarantee to raise private cash in the capital markets — with the rest of the money expected to come from private sources.EU policymakers say they will be looking for funds wherever they can. Chinese investments will be sought out avidly. Middle East investors will be welcome.“I often hear we need so-called fresh money. But we need a fresh start and fresh investment,” Juncker told the European Parliament this week. “We will not betray our children and grandchildren by writing cheques they ultimately will have to pay.”With one eye on developments across the Atlantic, the Commission chief moaned that “While investment is taking off in the US, Europe is lagging behind. Why? Because investors lack confidence, credibility and trust.”The Commission is making up for the lack of solid details on the plan by upping the hype. Juncker says the initiative represents a cornerstone of efforts to revive an ailing economy.Others have called it a historic moment, a make-or-break initiative, a European “New Deal” to get Europeans working again.Certainly, the timing is right. Many European economists have been saying for some time Europe needs to move from the current focus on austerity to programmes which bring back growth.And the best way to do so is to start investing again — especially in infrastructure.The Commission believes it could create up to 1.3 million jobs with investment in broadband, energy networks and transport infrastructure, as well as education and research.National governments could contribute to the fund if they wished and would be asked to come up with a list of projects with “high socio-economic returns” that could kick-off between 2015 and 2017.With a nod to Martin Luther King, Juncker added that he had a dream. He wanted to see schoolchildren walking into a brand new classroom equipped with computers in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, European hospitals saving lives with state of the art medical equipment and French commuters charging electric cars on motorways.The good news is that pro-austerity Germany — the bane of countries like France and Italy which want the EU to start spending itself out of economic stagnation — is in favour of the plan.But EU officials admit the initiative will not fill the gap in the amount of investments needed, especially in infrastructure across Europe. There is also concern that there will not be enough credible projects around for investors to put their money into.The European Investment Bank will be the “prime mover” in delivering seed money for those investments over the next three years. The plan will now be discussed by the 28 EU leaders at the Dec 18-19 summit.Juncker’s shift from austerity and cutting debt to investment is not going to be the botox shot needed to transform “Granny Europe” into a vibrant young woman. But it is a start.

View from Abroad: EU must engage urgently with China (Originally published 15/11/2014 at dawn.com)

China's President, Xi Jinping, is a busy man. And if the European Union’s new leaders waste time in engaging with him, the EU could find itself gently, but firmly, shut out as Beijing steps up its game, both in the region and on global stage.The Chinese president has had quite a week. Having hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, signed an unexpected agreement with President Barack Obama on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and eased tensions with Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe, Xi attended the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and will then be at the G20 gathering in Brisbane, Australia.Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did attend the Asia Europe Meeting in Milan last month — but the EU was represented at the meeting by the outgoing EU leaders, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and his colleague at the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. Beijing is waiting for the new Commission chief Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk who will head the European Council as of Dec 1, and the new EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to get in touch and answer whether the new men and women in Brussels will want a continuation or a change in in EU-China relationsCertainly, urgent matters at home and in Europe’s troubled neighbourhood command immediate attention. Juncker has also had to field embarrassing questions about allegations that Luxembourg was helping companies to dodge taxes while he was prime minister.But still, reinforcing ties with the world’s second largest — and still fastest growing — economy must be also be an EU priority.The good news is that after a few troubled years, Europe-China ties are encouragingly sound. Although trade frictions are unlikely to completely disappear, major trade quarrels have been settled. Differences over human rights notwithstanding, the EU and China have developed a good working relationship. As such, the new EU team inherits a relatively solid EU-China agenda. It must use this to further shape relations to fit a complex environment, both at home and in China.But as the array of recent events, overtures and agreements illustrate it is busy with consolidating relations with the US and is focused on its immediate neighbourhood. Unless Europe acts quickly, it could lose China’s attention at a time when the two sides need each other.It is worth repeating: Europe and China need each other, not least for economic reasons. Its growth rates may be slowing down, but China’s appetite for European goods and investments continues to be crucial in determining the pace and success of Europe’s economic recovery. China’s economic transformation demands that it has access to European know-how, experience and technology. China’s reform agenda also gives European companies myriad opportunities for enhanced trade and investments.Second, a deeper EU-China relationship is important in order to polish Europe’s foreign policy credentials — in Washington, Moscow and in many Asian capitals. Asian countries, which are locked in territorial quarrels with Beijing in the East and South China Seas, believe Europeans can temper Beijing’s assertiveness on the issue and use its experience in managing cross-border challenges to ensure stability in the region.Third, while Europe’s one-time dream of ensuring that China would one day become a “responsible” international stakeholder now appears hopelessly out-of-date and patronising in view of Beijing’s increasing global outreach and self-confidence in world affairs, there is no doubt that the EU needs to engage with China on a range of urgent foreign and security policy issues, including relations with Russia, Iran’s nuclear plans, policy towards the IS, fighting Ebola and combating climate change.Significant headway has been made in recent years, especially in EU-China economic ties. Trade relations remain buoyant, with bilateral trade in goods valued at about 420 billion euros in 2013. Trade in services, currently estimated at about 50 billion euros annually, is expected to grow as China opens up its services sector and as new reform efforts begin to bear fruit. More is being done to increase bilateral investment flows.There is still much more to discuss and discover. China is in the midst of massive change as the focus shifts to boosting consumer demand and away from an excessive reliance on investments and exports. The emphasis is also on fighting pollution, ensuring sustainable urbanisation and implementing other aspects of last year’s massive national reform agenda agreed at the Third Plenum. More recently, China’s Fourth Plenum shifted the focus to the rule of law, governance and legal reform. President Xi, widely regarded as China’s most powerful leader in recent decades, is stepping up his anti-corruption campaign.Beijing has been true to its word in making 2014 “the year for Europe”, with both President Xi and Premier Li travelling to key European capitals. The EU’s new leaders must reciprocate through visits, convening of an EU-China summit early next year and rapid organisation of the high-level political, economic and people-to-people dialogues.As China and the EU prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their partnership next year, the relationship must be made more resilient, robust — and mutually respectful.

View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)

The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.