ASIAN LESSONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST: AFTER CHAOS, DEMOCRACY (Originally published 09/02/11)

European and American policymakers worried about further chaos and confusion in Tunisia, Egypt and other Arab states should take a close look at the way years of authoritarian rule gave way to democracy in three leading Asian nations: Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea.All three Asian countries went through long and difficult transition periods following the fall of entrenched, corrupt, dictators. There were riots, uncertainty and pain. The economy suffered. The army watched warily as protests spread.Today the three countries are functioning democracies, allies of the West and active participants in Asia’s rise. Historical parallels are never perfect of course; Arab countries, with their mix of disgruntled young people yearning for change, under-developed or non-existent political parties and well-organised Islamists present a complex challenge to Europe and America.Not surprisingly, ever since Tunisia’s “jasmine revolution” – and with the Iranian “Islamic revolution” circa 1979 on their minds - policymakers in Brussels and Washington have been struggling to balance their support for change and democracy with a desire for stability and continuity in the region.There is justified concern that anti-government protests could be hijacked by Islamists. But also unjustified assertions that the region is not “ready for democracy” and that chaos will be destructive and long-enduring. The West’s mixed message risks feeding a perception on the streets of Cairo and elsewhere that Europe and the US are putting stability ahead of democratic ideals and leaving hopes of nurturing peaceful, gradual change in the hands of an old guard which has little reason to speed up the process.Such sentiments do not augur well for future relations between the West and the Arab world. Better and wiser therefore to give a supportive hand, sound advice and good counsel to the real democrats than to throw a lifeline to those clinging to power.For inspiration, Arab and Western policymakers should read up on recent Indonesian history and especially the country’s successful –albeit sometimes painful - transformation to democracy following the fall of President Suharto in 1998.Also worth a read is the success of the “People Power movement” in the Philippines in 1986 which drove President Ferdinand Marcos into exile and installed Corazon Aquino as the new president. In South Korea, meanwhile, the democratic uprising of June 1987 represented a nation-wide uprising and the main goal was to make the authorities to give green light to democratisation.Despite their flaws, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea are proof that countries can change direction, peoples’ aspirations for democracy can be met and that chaos can give way to peace and development.For lessons on managing change and transformation, perhaps Arab and Western policymakers should stopping fretting about Iran and start consulting some of Asia’s new democracies.

THE NEED FOR A STRATEGIC EUROPEAN VISION ON ASIA (Originally published 02/02/11)

Europe and Asia have good trade and business ties but need to develop an equally dynamic and forward-looking political and security relationship. This is crucial if Europe is to become a credible partner for a rising Asia. With the structure of the new European External Action Service finally in place, it’s time to start work on a much-needed new European strategic vision for engaging with Asia.

Relations with China must be top of the agenda but EU policymakers must also look beyond the current preoccupation with Beijing.  Stronger ties must be built up with India and Indonesia as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).  The EU-Japan relationship needs new momentum.  A stronger EU-Asia conversation is needed on global flashpoints including Iran, North Korea and Burma as well as recent tensions in the East and South China Seas.

Discussions should focus on cooperation to manage urbanisation, develop low-carbon technology, tackle climate change, combat poverty, ensure energy security and pursue anti-piracy actions.

Free trade negotiations with Asian countries need to be pursued and more ambitious pacts covering wider economic cooperation should be explored with other countries, including Japan, which are looking for closer trade ties with the EU.  EU-Asia investments must be facilitated in both directions.  Discussions on easing the financial and monetary crisis are vital.

Closer ties between European and Asian civil society groups should be encouraged, with a special emphasis on reaching out to young people.

Above all, Europe must not only talk to Asia – it must also listen.

Dealing with ascendant Asia will require that the EU changes its traditional way of dealing with the region.   Emerging Asian countries like China and India do not fall into neat categories of “rich” and “poor”; as such, they require sophisticated handling.

The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Brussels last October - attended by most Asian leaders - is proof that the majority of Asian countries want close relations with Europe, and see the EU market as vital for their domestic growth and development.

The EU's problem is simple: it has been unable to leverage its economic power in Asia into real, sustained political clout.

Dealing with a changing and rising Asia will require a change in European mindsets, new courtships and new alliances.

Correcting the view among many Asian policymakers that the EU is an irrelevant global player will take time, energy and effort.   Failure to do so, however, could mean a brake on  Europe’s ambitions to become a potent global actor.

It is with these challenges in mind that Friends of Europe has launched a high-profile Asia Programme which will study and analyse ascending Asia and assess the different ways in which it impacts on the European Union.

Through a range of diverse activities, including high-level conferences, seminars, roundtable discussions and publications, including policy recommendations, our new Asia Programme will strive to contribute to the development of a new EU strategy for Asia