10/19/15 10/19/15

2015 at Dawn.com)

So what’s democracy all about? And is there a magic formula for ensuring a successful transition from authoritarian rule to democracy?If you’ve ever asked that question and fretted about the state of your nation, pick up a fascinating just-released book From Authoritarian Rule Toward Democratic Governance: Learning from Political Leaders by International IDEA — the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance — which tells you just how to ensure successful democratic transitions.Authors of the in-depth study, based on a conversation with 13 former presidents from nine countries on four continents, have come up with 10 lessons on what works and what doesn’t work when nations embark on the often-perilous path to democracy.A quick glance at the headlines, including the chaos in Egypt, violence in Syria and Libya and still fragile transitions in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Myanmar make clear that Democratic Transitions should be obligatory bedside reading for all would-be democrats, wherever they are.And while some countries like Pakistan may pride themselves on having moved from democratic transition to democracy, I would ask: really? Given the state of governance in the country, the book should be compulsory reading not just for the prime minister and his advisers but all opposition politicians — and army men — with aspirations to lead the country.After having talked to men — there are no women leaders who were interviewed but there is a chapter on the role of women in political transformations — Abraham Lowenthal from the Brookings Institution and Sergio Bitar, a former minister in successive Chilean governments, have come up with what they term “10 imperatives for crafting democratic transitions”.So what are the lessons learned?First, opposition leaders should combat repression and dictatorship by moving forward incrementally. In order to combat repression and push for openings, opposition leaders have to exert continuous pressure but be prepared to make compromises to move ahead. Transition-making is not a task for the dogmatic. Dismissing maximalist positions call for more political courage than hewing to impractical principles.Second, throughout the campaign for democracy, project a positive and inclusive vision for democratic change rather than focusing on past grievances. Keep hammering home such as hope and vision to combat the pervasive fear among people who may prefer authoritarian calm — even army rule — over democratic turmoil.Third, build convergence and coalitions among democratic forces. Connect to social movements — workers, students, women, human rights groups and religious institutions — in fashioning the democratising movement’s aims and programmes.Four, create spaces for dialogue between democratic movements and authoritarian regimes — secretly at first if necessary as was the case in South Africa. Informal dialogues can help members of the authoritarian regime and the democratic opposition to understand each other and build a working relationship.Five, act firmly but carefully to achieve democratic civilian control of security services. Transition leaders should take early and decisive action to bring the armed forces, police and intelligence agencies under civilian authority and control while recognising their legitimate roles. The army’s focus should be on external defence and international peacekeeping, not on internal security.Six, craft workable constitutions through an inclusive process and engage a wide range of participants in drafting a constitutional document while also working hard to respond to the core concerns of key groups. Also, provide some assurance to elements and supporters of the former regime that their fundamental economic and institutional concerns and individual rights will be respected under the rule of law.Seven, manage economic tensions to combine growth with equity. Alleviating poverty and dealing with unemployment and inflation often come into conflict with economic reforms needed for future growth. To deal with this tension, adopt social measures to help the poorest and the most vulnerable elements of society.Eight, invest early on in building and institutionalising vibrant political parties given their key role in creating and sustaining democracies — provided they do not become vehicles for individual political figures and their democracies.Nine, to meet the needs for justice and memory, avoid wholescale prosecution of former officials. Instead, establish transparent legal processes to tackle violations of rights, provide recognition and reparation to victims and bring violators to justice.Finally, draw on external support from government and non-governmental actors but remember that democracy cannot be imposed from the outside. International actors cannot take the place of domestic initiatives, the study warns. But they can encourage and provide discreet advice. What foreign powers must not do is undertake impatient and counterproductive interventions.As for the qualities of leadership, the book notes that there is not one model for a transition leader. He or she needs to be cool-headed, pragmatic but also full of resolve and courage. Some had the self-confidence to take difficult decisions, others relied on competent associates.All of those interviewed, underlined that top political executives did not work on their own but rather creatively and constructively with many others.And finally a word of warning for those preparing mass protests and demonstrations: democracy does not emerge directly or easily from crowds in the street. Crafting democracies takes vision, time, hard work, persistence, skill — some luck — and above all leadership.

9/21/15 9/21/15

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Let’s focus on the 'mother of all' SDGs (Originally published 19/09/2015 at Dawn.com)

In just one week, world leaders will gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York to adopt the much-anticipated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) designed to steer global economic, social and environmental policies over the next 15 years.The SDGs are important and their implementation will have a critical impact on what the world will look like in 2030. After all, the previous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) certainly contributed, among other things, to reducing extreme poverty and halving the number of annual deaths of children under five.And yet. Promises about the future are fine but I can’t help wondering: shouldn’t the focus in New York be on the need for urgent global action to tackle a raging refugee crisis which is affecting not just Europe but number of countries, including many in the developing world?The UN should use next week’s meeting to craft one over-arching “mother of all SDGs” which would tackle the deep, structural problems — poverty, inequality, conflicts, climate change — which lie behind the world’s growing refugee problem.Instead of making speeches on the SDGs, world leaders would be more credible if they hammered out a global strategy to ensure a decent, dignified life for the millions of refugees on the move today — while also taking action to deal with the wars, conflict and persecution which cause people to flee their homes.Such a blueprint should be about the current plight of the refugees — mostly from Syria, Iraq, Eritrea and Afghanistan — who are desperately seeking shelter in Europe but also in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and many African countries.But it should be about much more as well. It should focus on the deficiencies in current global development policies which have helped to provoke the current disastrous situation.In fact, the world body doesn’t have to add on another — eighteenth — SDG which focuses specifically on refugees. It could quite simply and forcefully put its full weight behind the urgent need to link the implementation of the SDGs to the resolution of the refugee crisis.Certainly, there will need to be a sharper focus on fragile states. As Gideon Rabinowitz from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) points out in a recent blog, “although certainly not its primary cause, the international community’s inadequate support for countries facing humanitarian and conflict-related challenges has contributed to this [refugee] crisis”.Rabinowitz underlines that funding for food vouchers for Syrian refugees has been slashed. Aid to fragile states is down.At a recent conference on the SDGs held in Brussels, there was agreement that the refugee crisis should lead to greater emphasis on peace and conflict resolution in the SDGs.“The crisis is actually a test for many of the SDGs — some of the social ones and education, health, things like that,” said James Mackie, Senior Adviser on EU Development Policy at the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM). “But the one I would really focus on would be SDG 16 on conflict, peace, justice and inclusive institutions. I think that’s where the real solution to this crisis is, and we should learn that lesson looking forward.”Certainly, attention at the moment is on European governments’ messy and discordant responses. Hungary’s odious mistreatment of the refugees is one cruel facet of the story, Germany’s still-humane reaction is another.Most “ordinary” people are going out of their way to welcome the refugees even as the Far Right screams blue murder.The sad truth is that Europe is overwhelmed by the number of people seeking entry, the collapse of its cherished Schengen border-free system and the need to rapidly craft a new and more intelligent asylum and immigration policy.All this will take time. Speedy decision-making is not something the EU is good at.But what about others? Where is the compassionate global response that could be expected, especially from Muslim Middle Eastern nations which have taken only a few escapees from the brutal conflict they are helping to finance in Syria. Saudi Arabia has offered Germany funds to build 200 mosques. Hopefully, Berlin will say no.Japan took in eleven asylum seekers last year although Tokyo faces labour shortages and the huge problem of an ageing population. The US has been slow and lumbering in its grudging decision to take in about 10,000 Syrians.Little can be expected meanwhile from Southeast Asian countries which were at loggerheads only a few months ago over their reluctance to house the Rohingya fleeing ethnic strife in Myanmar.The problem won’t go away, however. The UNHCR has warned that that worldwide displacement is at the highest level ever recorded, with the number of people forcibly displaced at the end of 2014 rising to a staggering 59.5 million compared to 51.2 million a year earlier and 37.5 million a decade ago.The increase represents the biggest leap ever seen in a single year. Moreover, the report said the situation was likely to worsen still further.Since early 2011, the main reason for the acceleration has been the war in Syria, now the world’s single-largest driver of displacement.If they are to mean anything to anyone in the coming years, the SDGs must focus on preventing, managing and resolving the many conflicts and the many inter-connected challenges of poverty, inequality and climate change which are devastating the world.So here’s my advice to the great and the good as they head for New York: tone down the rhetoric, tear up your speeches. Remember your speeches and the SDGs will be meaningless unless the new set of global development priorities also help tackle the reasons behind the global refugee crisis.

9/8/14 9/8/14

A new agenda for Afghanistan's development (Originally published 04/07/12)

As international donors prepare to meet in Tokyo on 8 July to discuss Afghanistan’s economic future, the focus should be on more than making new aid commitments. Donors should craft a longer-term agenda for good governance to tackle the country’s immediate problems and prepare for the 2014 drawdown of foreign troops.To ensure development and stability in the country, the Afghan government and the international community should:

Strike the right balance between support for the army and building strong civilian institutions
Focus on sustainable growth and development in addition to security
Reduce aid dependency progressively and attract job-creating investments
Combat corruption and empower civil society
Resist creeping erosion of achievements in women’s rights
Engage in capacity-building for journalists, encourage new media

The good news is that with the right economic leadership, Afghanistan could grow at a respectable 5% in the coming years. The bad news is that corruption and graft continue to plague the country, endangering prospects for building a stable and prosperous Afghanistan.Afghan President Hamid Karzai is hoping the conference in Tokyo will agree to aid pledges worth $4bn a year. Having already poured billions of dollars into the country – and given the current global economic slowdown – donors are understandably wary of making new commitments.Donors should make sure Afghanistan has access to sustained financial support in the coming years – but they should also link such assistance more firmly to improved the governance.The economic outlook for Afghanistan is more upbeat than many believe. The coming decade offers "high hopes, expectations, and great opportunities", according to World Bank Country Director Bob Saum.The country is believed to have mineral reserves worth as much as $3tn, which could theoretically generate billions of dollars in tax revenue. More can also be done to tap into Afghanistan’s agricultural potential.Major strides have been made in schooling children and improving health for mothers and children but three-quarters of Afghans are illiterate and the average person earns only about $530 a year, according to the World Bank.In addition, the situation of Afghan women remains precarious. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton among others has said she is “deeply troubled” by recent developments in the country, including the Afghan Justice Minister Habibullah Ghalib's suggestion that women's shelters were home to “immorality and prostitution”.“His comments set back efforts to fight violence against women in Afghanistan, including the need to provide victims with safe places to take shelter," Ashton said in a recent statement. “Too many Afghan women have experienced violence, gender-based and sexual, often on a repeated basis,” she said, adding: “Women forced to resort to shelters are amongst the bravest Afghans we know.”The Afghan government has asked donors to channel more aid funds through the national budget rather than through contractors or aid groups. Donors are also being asked to better tailor aid to the government's priorities including health, education, agriculture and the mining sector.Donors’ response should, however, hinge on efforts to combat waste, fraud and corruption. They should also demand that Afghan promises are followed up by real action.