VIEW FROM ABROAD: We live in interesting times: Trump, Muslims and Europe

AHEAD of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President, New York City is as vibrant and dynamic as ever. Locals mingle with tourists, immigrants and foreigners in the icy cold. The ferry to the Statue of Liberty is brimming with excited Chinese visitors. The stores and restaurants are full.

This is New York, proud global city, still basking in a soft post-New Year glow. It is also in combative mood, braced for a fight with the new president.

“Are you here for Trump’s inauguration,” my Dominican taxi driver asks. I say no, I’m attending a high-level forum on anti-Muslim hate being organised at the United Nations by the European Union, Canada, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation — and the US.

“So it’s Obama’s parting shot,” he chuckles. “These Americans are crazy to elect Trump. They are already regretting it. At least here in New York.”

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Certainly, the new US President is not this city’s favourite son. The 58-storey Trump Tower may be the fanciest, glitziest building among other fancy, glitzy luxury stores which line Fifth Avenue, but New Yorkers are fed up with the increased security, the barricades and the gawping tourists.

A small but stalwart and loud group of protesters stands outside the Tower, shouting, “No Trump, No KKK, no fascist USA”. Policemen look on warily as tourists take pictures.

Ever since Trump won the election, the protective measures around the Tower, which is his primary residence and where his wife Melania will stay while their son finishes his school year, have caused a dramatic slowdown in business in the neighbourhood, according to PBS journalist Rhana Natour.

Shopkeepers say they are not happy with the chaos. Tourists and shoppers aren’t keen to get caught in the protests or run into policemen and police dogs. If Trump keeps coming to New York, as he has said he will, business just won’t pick up.

Americans are gearing up for a struggle. On Jan 21, a day after the inauguration, a massive Women’s March will be held in New York and other cities across the US and the world.

This city has its own heroes. New York Governor Andrew M Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, both Democrats, have made clear that they will stand firm on their principles.

Cuomo has called New York “a safe harbour for our progressive principles and social justice”. De Blasio joined actors Alec Baldwin and Mark Ruffalo, as well as film-maker and activist Michael Moore, for a protest against Trump. “This is New York. Nothing about who we are changed on Election Day,” de Blasio promised in a tweet.

Trump’s shadow looms large over the UN meeting. Outside the UN building, flags from across the world still flutter. But in the rain, they have a forlorn air. Colleagues worry about the future of the UN. Trump is not a believer in multilateral cooperation. “But this is why we have to stand firm and speak out,” says a friend.

As the forum begins the mood is understandably sober and reflective. It’s also surreal. The keynote speeches in the first hour warn of rising anti-Muslim hate and discrimination without mentioning Trump by name.

UN Secretary General Antònio Guterres refers to a recently launched initiative “Together — Respect, Safety and Dignity for All” which is designed to strengthen bonds between refugees, migrants and host countries and communities.

David Saperstein, American Ambassador at large for International Religious Freedom warns, “Anti-Muslim hatred does not occur in a vacuum…the rise of xenophobia across the world creates challenges that focus our attention and the data leaves us no doubt that this is happening.”

But then the discussions get more animated. No one can say whether Trump intends to implement his campaign promise of setting up a “Muslim registry” but there is little doubt that his election has triggered an increase in anti-Muslim hate.

In Europe, there is concern that populists are riding high in polls in the Netherlands, France and Germany. Intolerance and anti-Muslim diatribes have become the norm for leaders in Hungary, Poland and other Eastern European countries.

But the forum is not about Muslims as victims but about empowering Muslim minorities in America, Europe and in other parts of the world.

There is talk of creating civil society coalitions against xenophobia, working with other faith groups, countering misinformation and forging positive stories of Muslims in the news and popular culture.

“Some say we live in a post-truth world,” says EU human rights envoy Stavros Lambrinidis. “We must have the courage to confront narratives when they are based on prejudice, or blatant lies, so that they do not become part of the mainstream.”

Several panellists highlight the importance of establishing relationships with local political and law enforcement agencies, saying that as New York has shown, mayors are key to ensuring that cities are more open, tolerant and diverse.

I head home to Brussels just hours before Trump moves into the White House. The New York Times has an editorial chiding the new president for his pro-Russian and pro-Brexit rhetoric and his anti-Nato and anti-EU diatribes.

There is no immediate Trump tweet in reaction. But we know: it is going to be an interesting four years.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, January 21st, 2017

VIEW FROM ABROAD: As EU-Turkey relations crash, it’s time to consider ‘Trexit’

TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have succeeded in convincing Pakistan’s government to expel Turkish teachers accused of links to an alleged terrorist organisation — a decision now put on hold by a Pakistani court — but the Turkish leader’s links with the European Union have hit an all-time low.

There is talk of “Trexit” or an end to Turkey’s decades-old bid to join the EU. Erdogan has hinted that he is fed up with the EU and ready to move on and seek other partners.

But the message from Ankara is confusing. In Brussels this week, Turkish officials were adamant that “full membership” of the EU was still their aim. And they insisted that Turkey wanted above all to talk about “rule of law” with the EU.

Yes, readers, EU-Turkey relations are complicated. They are difficult, tetchy and at times amusing. Both sides need each other but don’t trust each other. “Can’t live with you, can’t live without you”.

Deep inside where it matters, EU policymakers are wary of opening their club to a majority Muslim nation. And similarly, deep inside where it matters, Turkish officials think Europeans are arrogant and Islamophobic.

Both assumptions are correct. Blame it on history, the crusades, Christian-Muslim rivalries that cast a dark shadow even in the 20th Century. But the love-hate EU-Turkey relationship is entering an even more fraught era.

The EU agreed years ago that Turkey could join the EU — and negotiations began in earnest in 2005.

The talks have never been easy — not least because of the shadow cast by the divided island of Cyprus.

Things are now coming to a head. The European Parliament voted last week to freeze negotiations on Turkish membership of the EU, saying Ankara was guilty of a “disproportionate and repressive” response to the failed military coup against the government on July 15.

“Since the failed military coup in July 2016, tens of thousands of people, including military personnel, public servants, teachers and university deans, prosecutors, journalists and opposition politicians, have been fired, suspended, detained or arrested,” the European Parliament said in a press release.

MEPs are also concerned about the crackdown and the threat by the Turkish President to reintroduce the death penalty.

The non-binding parliamentary resolution calls for a temporary freeze on the EU accession negotiations until the “disproportioned repressive measures are lifted”.

But allegations of human rights abuse by the Turkish government against its own citizens are piling up at the European Court of Human Rights. The Strasbourg-based court said last week that it has received some 850 petitions from Turkish citizens in the past two weeks.

Not surprisingly, Erdogan has reacted angrily to the European Parliament move. The Turkish leader threatened to tear up a landmark deal to stem the flow of Syrian and other refugees into Europe. He also warned that he would seek other partners in lieu of the EU.

For all their anger and frustration at Turkey’s conduct, few in Europe think it wise to allow a further worsening of relations with Ankara.

But there is a growing number of people both in Europe and Turkey who believe that Ankara should push the “Trexit” button. In other words, instead of trying so hard to join the EU, Ankara should reflect on another form of partnership with the bloc.

The new arrangement would take into account massive changes in both the European and Turkish landscapes. Clearly, both the EU and Turkey are very different today than they were when they started their courtship in the 1960s.

The EU was still a modest club of six democracies seeking peace and stability after the devastation of World War II. Turkey was struggling with numerous economic and political challenges including efforts to keep the Turkish army away from national politics.

Fast forward to 2016, and the EU counts 28 members — with Britain on the way out. The bloc is big but chastened, still powerful but also increasingly fragile.

Turkey is an undoubtedly important regional power — but also less influential than many thought it would be in dealing with Syria and Iran.

Given the changes on both sides, there are calls for the EU and Turkey to put aside the long and difficult debate on membership and focus instead on a new 21st century strategic partnership which reflects new geopolitical realities.

“That Turkey’s accession is not a realistic goal for the foreseeable future should be the starting point of this new discussion; but that acknowledgement should not be a punishment but an opportunity to redefine the relationship according to mutual interests: the refugee crisis, economic integration, counterterrorism and energy, to name a few,” argues Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe.

The approach makes sense to many in Europe and to some Turkish scholars. But the Turkish government insists that past promises of membership cannot be cast aside.

Instead of looking for new avenues for partnership, both sides remain prisoners of the past, unable and unwilling to readjust their ties to a changing world order. The current impasse creates difficulties for both Europe and Turkey. Quite simply, it’s time to change tack.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, December 3rd, 2016

FRANKLY SPEAKING | A good moment to reflect on tolerance

Did you know that 16 November is the ‘International Day for Tolerance’? This year, more than ever before, let’s take a moment to contemplate.Talk of openness and inclusion may appear quaint in a world dominated by hate and harshness. Who wants to “respect and recognise the rights and beliefs of others” – as the United Nations would like us to do on Wednesday – when there is so much fear to spread, and so many angry ‘strong’ men and women to elect?Life is just too short to be polite. People want tough leaders, not more soppy political correctness. Let’s leave softies like Canada’s Justin Trudeau to fight injustice, oppression, racism and unfair discrimination. The rest of us have better things to do.Actually, we don’t.Being mean and nasty can be exhilarating for a naughty moment. There is a thrill in breaking taboos, hurling insults and breaching red lines. Building walls and fences and deporting immigrants can sound like great fun.But the excitement won’t last. And a permanent state of hate and anger is not a recipe for societal well-being. Living together – even without ‘them’, just among ‘us’ – requires a degree of courtesy and polite interaction.Taming the demons of racism, nativism and populism unleashed by America’s president-elect Donald Trump during his election campaign – which may be cultivated over the next four years – will not be easy. But here are six ways it can be done.First, let’s remember that millions of Americans did not buy into Trump’s toxic rhetoric. While the Electoral College certainly voted for Trump, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton secured a majority of the popular vote.In other words, those who embrace pluralism, tolerance, inclusion – and who reject the nightmare version of a new Trumpian world order – cannot be easily shunted to the side lines. Their voice will continue to count. It may become even louder.Second, it’s more important than ever to craft an inspirational narrative to counter and outsmart Trump’s European wannabes in France, Germany and the Netherlands.As elections in these and other countries draw closer, instead of pandering to the ‘Populists International’, mainstream political parties in Europe must reach out with more conviction and passion to the majority of Europeans who believe in an open and tolerant Europe. Their voices are currently drowned out by extremists and ignored by others.This is no time for old, wishy washy slogans and bland speeches. It’s time to fight fire with fire.Third, underlining the principles of liberal democracy – as German Chancellor Angela Merkel did in her message of congratulations to Trump – is a good first step. But it will mean very little unless EU leaders take tougher action against those inside the EU – including Hungary’s Viktor Orban and the Polish government – who violate these very values.Fourth, even as they lecture Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin or Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on human rights, EU leaders should make sure that they practice what they preach at home and that their own treatment of minorities – as well as migrants and refugees – is above reproach. For the moment, it isn’t.Fifth, even seemingly small things matter. Christmas traditions like ‘Black Pete’ in the Netherlands may seem harmless to white Dutch people but they send a harmful message of exclusion to the country’s many black citizens.Offensive language, of the kind European Commissioner Gunter Oettinger used recently when speaking of his Chinese counterparts, sends the wrong message to European citizens and a watching world.Last, let’s debate and discuss the reasons for Trump’s success, the rise of populists, the flaws of liberal democrats and the pros and cons of globalisation. As with Brexit, there are important topics to analyse and reflected upon.For the moment, the killing fields of the 21st century happen to be far away, in Afghanistan, Africa and the Middle East. But not so long ago it was here in Europe that racism and discrimination led to wide-spread devastation, death and destruction.History should not be allowed to repeat itself.Friends of Europe’s ‘Frankly Speaking’ column takes a critical look at key European and global issues.

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Trump victory will shock Europe — but not his many European fans

BY now, Europeans are used to shocks, both internal and external. There’s been Brexit, the mass arrival of over a million migrants and refugees, sporadic terror attacks and a continuing economic slowdown, not to mention earthquakes in Italy.

But the jury is still out on whether Europe will be able to cope with the “mother of all shocks” in the shape of an election victory for US Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The short answer is no. Most Europeans are rooting for Hillary Clinton and can’t think of anything worse than having to deal with “President Trump”. He’s a populist, a bigot, offensive, outrageous and unpredictable. He’s too close for comfort to Russia. And he’s not sure about the significance of Nato.

The long answer is more complex. While most EU policymakers go pale at the thought of Trump in the White House, others are hoping against hope that he will get the job.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front, has said that she would vote for Trump. Nigel Farage, a major figure in the successful campaign for the UK to leave the EU, has appeared on the campaign trail with Trump.

Anti-Islam Dutch politician Geert Wilders appeared at a fringe event of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July, praising Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration into the United States.

In fact, whether he gets to be president or not, Trump has already been a gift from heaven for Europe’s far right. He’s shown them how to talk the rough talk, to be rude and coarse, to break taboos and to get away with it.

He’s also boosted the credibility of some of the leaders of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic who think like him (keep out the Muslims), talk like him and are building the fences and walls that Trump wants to construct.

But it’s the far-right parties in opposition in France, Netherlands and elsewhere who love Trump so much, their leaders even want to look like him: blonde, wild-haired and blue-eyed.

Like Trump, they like to think themselves as “anti-establishment” and “anti-globalisation”. They rant against “Brussels” just like Trump rages against “Washington”.

Much to the delight of the Brexiteers, Trump cheered Britain’s vote to leave the EU. He sees the Union as outdated and said nations needed to take back control over their future.

They share Trump’s dislike — dare I say “hatred” — of Muslims and hark back to the imaginary Utopia of a Christian and white Europe unsullied by outsiders.

Even though elections in France, Netherlands and Germany are some months away, just like Trump, Europe’s populists are giving mainstream candidates a run for their money.

In some ways, they have already won. Instead of countering the toxic populist narrative, many mainstream European political parties are embracing their ideology.

That’s the case for Nicolas Sarkozy, the centre-right French politician who wants to come back as president to replace Francois Hollande. Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May sounds like Farage in many of her comments.

However, while Hillary Clinton has spoken openly of her desire to welcome immigrants and Muslims as part of the American story, here in Europe only German Chancellor Angela Merkel has taken a public stance in favour of tolerance and openness.

The shrill tone of the US election, where fiction and simple slogans count for more than facts, is likely to be reflected in the upcoming polls in Europe.

As German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier underlined recently, “hatemonger” Trump and his cronies in Europe prey on people’s fears.

Clinton’s popularity in Europe is no surprise. She was respected as Obama’s Secretary of State. And although there was some concern that her “pivot to Asia” would leave Europe out in the cold, that fear was eased when America continued to engage with the EU on many issues, including climate change.

Trump is feared by the mainstream for his closeness to Russia, his sceptical view of Nato and he has explicitly discussed rapprochement with Russia, a renegotiation of Nato’s budget. Small surprise then that in response some in Europe are now talking of building an EU army.

Significantly, most people in Europe believe that neither Clinton nor Trump is likely to want to complete already difficult negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement.

That’s probably just as well given the obstacle course the EU had to run to get approval of the Canadian free trade deal, with last minute objections from Belgium’s Walloon regional government almost scuppering the deal.

The CETA deal with Canada was done at the eleventh hour — but not before that too had sent shock waves across Europe.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, November 5th, 2016

VIEW FROM ABROAD: Britain, Europe and the Brexit ‘pantomime’

LONDON in early October and I’m reassured: nothing appears to have changed since the June 23 vote to take Britain out of the European Union. The bustling city is still home to millions of happy “foreigners” of all colour, creed and race. The cafes, theatres and shops are doing a thriving business. Nobody looks at me with hostility or even interest. This is London as we know and love it.

My passport is stamped by a border policeman who is clearly of South Asian descent. The taxi driver is from Cyprus. The waiter at the trendy restaurant my son and daughter take me to is Dutch. Everybody and everything seem as they were before the Brexit referendum and I chide myself for worrying about the post-Brexit future of one of the world’s most wonderful cities.

Fast forward a few days and I am back home in Brussels, worrying again. As I watch and listen to the news coming out of the British Conservative Party conference, I can hardly believe my ears. British Prime Minister Theresa May has declared war, among others, on foreigners, Europe, global elites, and banks.

The rhetoric is straight out of the first half of the 20th Century. Britain is being taken back in time to an imaginary past when it was prosperous, white and Christian. There is no mention of the days of the Raj — but that may have been an oversight. Clearly, May’s version of Britain is a country stuck in a time warp and uncomfortable with life in an interconnected and globalised world.

Luckily, the prime minister’s views are not universally popular. Those favouring Brexit were and still are in a small majority. Many of my British friends are desperately looking for new non-British passports. There is a friend who is becoming Dutch, others are applying for Belgian nationality. Still others are looking desperately for similar deals. There is anger and confusion. The country May is building seems to be more science fiction than reality.

And London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan is adamant the London after Brexit will remain open to foreigners. “It’s not simply a state of mind or an attitude — it’s what we are: open for talent, for business, for investment,” Khan told the Financial Times newspaper.

But May is on a roll. Britain is going to become a “country that works for everyone”, she underlined at the conference in Birmingham as her party faithful gazed adoringly at her. The camera zoomed in on an uncomfortable looking Boris Johnson, the UK foreign secretary and one-time Leave campaigner. Everybody is laughing, nodding — and some are falling asleep.

May has called the Brexit vote in June a “quiet revolution” and insists that she is now in charge of the country’s future. No, parliament will not be consulted. The people have spoken — and they want to leave the EU.

Only of course it isn’t that simple. The referendum was an advisory one, Britain is still a parliamentary democracy and the Brexit vote is being challenged in courts. Also, while turning her back on foreigners and elites, May still wants to retain the maximum possible access to EU single market while ensuring full control over immigration.

As everyone knows, however, nobody in the EU — least of all German Chancellor Angela Merkel — will allow Britain full benefits of the single market without free movement of people. May has admitted that the upcoming Brexit negotiations — once she invokes Article 50 on taking Britain out of the EU in March next year, are going to be tough, requiring “some give and take”.

Worryingly for Europe’s liberal democrats, May, who was supposed to be in favour of “Remain” in Europe when she was in the last government, has suddenly started sprouting populist rhetoric which is reminiscent of Ukip, the British anti-EU party, of Marine Le Pen and other leaders of the many far-right groups which are proliferating in Europe and America’s Donald Trump.

In Birmingham, she described the June vote as a “quiet revolution”, when people “stood up and said they were not prepared to be ignored anymore”. She promised to change how the British elite related to the working classes. And then came the killer judgement: “If you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere”, she said.

Amber Rudd, the British home affairs minister, added fuel to fire by insisting British companies should hire “British citizens first”. She promised a crackdown on companies, such as minicab firms, that hire illegal migrants, and on landlords that rent properties to people without papers. Only foreign students who graduated at top universities such as Oxford or Cambridge would be able to stay and work in the UK.

Fortunately, there is a backlash over proposals to force companies to disclose how many foreign workers they employ, with business leaders describing it as divisive and damaging.

And as the value of the British pound tumbled to another historic low, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon described May’s vision of Brexit Britain as a “deeply ugly one” and warned that she could call for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

Britain’s exit talks are to start in March and last at least two years. Expect more poison and posturing from Britain and anger and stubbornness from Europe. Caught in the fire are the country’s young people — and the economy.

However, judging from their performance in Birmingham, May and her team are sanguine about the future and appear to view the upcoming EU negotiations as little more than a traditional Christmas pantomime. They are likely to be disappointed.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, October 8th, 2016

VIEW FROM ABROAD: A sober reflection on democracy today

I AM in the European parliament, participating in a discussion on “Democracy today and tomorrow”. We are supposed to be celebrating the “International Day of Democracy” decreed by the United Nations to review and assess whether the ideal of democracy is being translated into “a reality to be enjoyed by everyone, everywhere”.

We are reminded that the values of freedom, respect for human rights and the principle of holding periodic and genuine elections by universal suffrage are essential elements of democracy.

But the mood is sober, self-critical and reflective. Gone are the self-congratulatory speeches and back-patting which would have marked such occasions in the past.

Twenty-five years after Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the “End of History” and the victory of Western liberal democracy as the best form of government, liberal democracy, human rights and democratic values are increasingly being questioned and challenged.

In this troubled world can any country today really claim to be a ”model democracy”?

There is consensus that we are living in challenging times. Democracy in the US and Europe is in deep crisis. The problem is no longer “over there” in the non-Western world, but within the “mature democracies” of America and Europe.

The meeting is just a day after the televised encounter between the two American presidential hopefuls, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. There is general dismay — even horror — that Trump could be only weeks away from stepping into the White House.

For years, the US has been the champion of democracy, the gold standard for others also trying to experiment with a government of the people, by the people, for the people.

But democracy in the US is being tested as never before. The emergence of Trump as a credible candidate has shocked mainstream European political parties who fear that something similar could happen very soon in Europe.

Already far-right populists like Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are snapping at the heels of established political leaders.

Their xenophobic, anti-Muslim and anti-Europe message is striking a cord with angry men and women who feel uncertain and uneasy in the face of change. Le Pen is expected to do exceptionally well in national elections in France next year. The AfD has already made massive gains in recent regional elections in Germany.

The parliament is apprised of some surprising facts: surveys show a fall in the level of support for democracy among young people. Several seem to think it would be nice to have a “strong chief”.

There is no agreement on whether the economic slowdown, austerity and unemployment are making people ever more suspicious of politicians. But everyone agrees that there is a growing gap between the political classes and the electorate.

And as political parties lose credibility and relevance, populists step into their space and start spinning their tales of hate and woe.

The far-right populists in France, the Netherlands and elsewhere are often in the spotlight but it is time the illiberal leaders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, with their message of division and disunity, received equal attention.

As one participant put it, “We worry about what’s happening outside Europe but as we all know the fundamental rules of democracy are being breached inside Europe. Are we doing what is needed to stop the rot?”

“How can the EU impose principled, punitive measures on autocrats around the world when it has been unwilling to use any kind of sanction against the likes of Viktor Orban in Europe itself,” asked another.

Also, is it enough to hold elections in order to be a democracy? The response from participants is that it is important to think beyond the elections to models and structures of governance.

Political party reform is important for instance. And winners in elections have to learn that once they are behind the driving wheel, they must work for ALL their citizens, not just for those who voted for them.

The discussions are animated and open. There is concern about the growing polarisation of electorates, the rise in extremist ideologies, the lack of space for people in the centre who don’t want to vote for either the Left or the Right.

In addition, the Western liberal model is losing traction worldwide as countries look for help and inspiration to Russia or China. Many in China are already beginning to tout the “Beijing model” to countries as an alternative to democracy.

It is sobering stuff. We leave the conference in a muted state of alarm. It’s good to be aware of the dangers around us and of the even more perilous times ahead.

But I wish someone had come up with a solution to revive and reboot a form of government which — for all its weaknesses — is still the best one around. At least for the time being.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, October 1st, 2016

No time to waste in crafting a new narrative for Europe

Post-Brexit Britain is changing fast as key Leave campaigners scurry off the stage, political parties start the tortuous process of selecting new leaders and ordinary citizens grapple with the myriad ramifications of the June 23 decision.

The Leave vote is also impacting on the European Union in many, complicated and yet-to-be identified, ways. The separation or divorce is going to be long and painful. There may even be a last-chance attempt at reconciliation.

Some things, however, look set to stay the same.

Britain’s historic decision to leave the EU has not changed European leaders’ chronic inability to respond to crises with grace and dignity. Britain’s political class has sullied its reputation even further while EU leaders have become entangled — once again — in power struggles and premature battles over the future of an EU of 27 states.

Brexit has not prompted much-needed soul-searching on the EU’s failure to connect, respond and interact with citizens, especially younger ones. And, sadly, as illustrated by the failure of the Remain campaign, it has not yet sparked a serious reflection on crafting a positive EU story for the 21st Century.

Old habits die hard. But now more than ever, if it is to thrive, flourish and exert influence in an increasingly cut-throat world, the EU urgently needs an inspirational new narrative in step with the changing times.

The truth is that Europe does have a convincing story to tell. But it has no one to tell it.

The massive pro-EU demonstration in London on July 2 is proof that Europe resonates and matters. It matters not just to the vocal segment of the 48 per cent of Britons who voted to stay in the EU but also to those who were misled by the lies and myths propagated by the Leave camp and are now having second thoughts.

It matters to young people who feel betrayed by an older generation which voted to withdraw from the EU — and to the others who may not have cast their ballot but now wish they had. It matters to ethnic minorities who face an unacceptable increase in racial and religious abuse in the wake of the referendum.

Most importantly, Europe matters to millions of other European voters who will be going to the polls in the coming months in France, Germany and elsewhere and who may be enticed into voting for Frexit or Nexit if referendums are called in France and the Netherlands by far right leaders Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, respectively.

Crafting a new EU story requires more than just countering the lies, misinformation and toxic myths being disseminated by far right and populist politicians. Relying on facts and figures to get the message across is important — but not enough. The success of the Leave campaigners shows that in the midst of fear and hate, facts don’t matter — until it is too late.

What counts are leaders with passion who can get others to listen to them and stay on message. Interestingly, rare but convincing and passionate calls for Remain were made in the last three days ahead of the UK referendum by Scottish Conservative Ruth Davidson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan in a televised debate with Leave’s leading campaigner Boris Johnson.

The EU story needs to be recounted by those who believe in what they are “selling” and know how to discuss, engage and connect with people. A European narrative disseminated half-heartedly as it was by many, including outgoing British Prime Minister David Cameron, just cannot do the trick.

Drafting a new EU narrative also requires a shift away from listening exclusively to the shrill clamour of the populists to also paying attention to the calmer voice and the aspirations of those Europeans who want — and are working to create — a more tolerant, open and inclusive Europe.

The pro-EU banners and placards carried at the recent massive rally in London should provide inspiration for writers of the new EU story. So should the actions of the many ordinary people, non-governmental organisations, businesses and mayors who are going out of their way in many parts of Europe to welcome refugees and migrants with food, shelter and jobs. Their stories are hardly ever told. And yet they — not just the far right that all politicians pander to — are also part of Europe’s “reality”.

Populists are certainly a threat to Europe’s values and to European democracy. But so are mainstream political parties which have embraced their message. The EU’s so-far fractious and incoherent response to Brexit is not going to endear it to citizens.

As it heads into uncharted waters, the EU needs to highlight what is good, constructive and positive about Europe. And it needs to do so with courage, conviction and self-confidence — and with leaders who show grace under fire. Nothing else will work.

View from abroad: Europe’s best kept secret (Originally published 13/02/2016 at Dawn.com)

Call it Europe’s best kept secret. As the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees hits the headlines and Europeans tie themselves in knots over how to deal with the desperate, mainly Muslim, newcomers, it’s worth noting: Islam has always been part of Europe — and it will be part of Europe’s future.Europe and Europeans have no choice. It will be long, difficult and sometimes painful but sooner or later, like it or not, they are going to have to come to terms with Islam and Muslims.It’s also true that if they are to live fulfilling and productive lives, Muslims, whatever their origin and their sectarian affiliations, will have to get used to calling Europe their “real” home. Many do so already and so will most of the refugees currently settling in to their new lives.There is no other option. Christians, Muslims and Jews have lived side by side, in peace and in Europe in the past. Despite the shrill headlines of a clash of cultures and values, they also do so today and will in the future.Europe’s current focus may be on Muslims as terrorists, refugees, foreign fighters, criminals and misfits — and extremists on all sides may cry blue murder at the existence of a vibrant multi-cultural Europe — but the process of adaptation, accommodation, integration, of Europe and Islam is well underway.For one, the economy demands it. As European economies stagnate, Europe’s ageing society needs refugees and migrants — skilled and unskilled — to pay taxes and do the jobs that no one else wants to do.But it’s about more. There is an interesting story to be told about migrants’ economic contribution to their host nations especially the fact that many migrant entrepreneurs are actively fostering the revitalisation of impoverished urban neighbourhoods, creating jobs and prompting innovation in products and services.A recent European Commission study stresses that diversity brought about by migration can be a competitive advantage and a source of dynamism for the European economies, whose workforce is expected to decline by approximately 50 million between 2008 and 2060.But these facts get lost in the toxic conversation being led by the far-right groups. The inconvenient truth is that Europe needs a new narrative on immigration and it needs it urgently.The stakes are high: Europe’s global reputation and hopes of playing a stronger international role depends on its internal conduct and policies. The tone and content of the immigration debate has repercussions on Europe’s internal cohesion, economic dynamism and societal harmony but also impacts strongly on EU foreign policy and international reputation.The harsh reaction of some European governments to those fleeing war in the Middle East colours global views of Europe, eroding the EU’s efforts to promote human rights worldwide.When Muslims are targets of racist attacks and discrimination, the EU’s role and influence in helping to stabilise a very volatile Arab and Muslim world is diminished. Young Africans drowning in rickety boats in the Mediterranean raise questions about the effectiveness of EU development policy.The environment is more favourable to changing the narrative than many believe. Recent tragedies in Paris and elsewhere as well as the current focus on European “foreign fighters” who have joined the militant Islamic State group in Syria has spotlighted the malaise and disaffection felt by many young Europeans of Muslim descent.Europe’s once solely security-focused approach to deal with the Muslims has been replaced with a more balanced view that includes an integration agenda and migrant outreach programmes.Government and business recruitment policies are being gradually changed to increase the employment of migrants. In fact, business leaders are demanding an increase in immigration, including that from Muslim countries, to meet Europe’s skills shortage, and the Lisbon Treaty includes a new anti-discrimination directive that strengthens existing rules on combating racism.For their part, migrant groups are becoming significantly more active in demanding equal rights as fully fledged citizens, organising themselves into pressure groups and emerging as influential politicians, entrepreneurs and cultural icons.But there are certain ground rules. Integration is a two-way street, requiring adjustment efforts by migrants and host societies. Newcomers must abide by existing rules so that they can become part of the conversation. But in exchange they should be accepted as full-fledged members of society.European politicians face the challenge of engaging in an intelligent debate on immigration and integration which is not about accusatory interventions or the adoption of populists’ rhetoric but does not shy away from discussing the real challenges of living in a multicultural and diverse society.Given the present sorry lack of representation of people of migrant background in national governments, parliaments and EU institutions, some form of support for higher education, facilitation of job promotion is needed to encourage minorities to become active social participants.Business leaders, for their part, must become less timid in pointing out that ageing and skills-deficient Europe needs foreign labour.Europe’s most serious refugee crisis since World War II seems to be ripping the continent apart, stretching economic resources, radicalising politics and straining political institutions. It need not be so.This is also a period of profound transformation, change and renewal. It may not look like it because of the ongoing chaos and turbulence. But Europe will never be the same again — it could be better. 

Livestreamed footage from 'ASEM at 20 – The challenge of connectivity', moderated by Shada Islam 09/09/2015

http://livestream.com/accounts/243996/events/4321123/player?width=560&height=315&autoPlay=true&mute=false

Shada Islam interviewed in 'Europe’s controversial approach to dealing with migrants' (Euranet 22/07/2015)

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO9HhFAq_-I[/embed]On Monday (July 20) the EU countries again failed to show solidarity to tackle the migration tragedy in the Mediterranean Sea. The target to relocate 40,000 refugees was not reached – the EU member states could only agree on the relocation of around 32,000 migrants. The redistribution of refugees was supposed to be a relief for the frontline countries like Italy and Greece, which have called for help to face the massive arrival of refugees crossing the Mediterranean. But EU countries had difficulties to agree on how to share the burden.According to Shada Islam, policy director at the EU think tank Friends of Europe, this is not only about solidarity. “It is showing much more than that, it is showing Europe’s inward looking mentality at the moment. The fact that Europeans are quite frightened of the world outside and of accepting people from the world outside. So, we were actually showing a disregard for our basic values. Europe says that it is inclusive, that it is open to people who are suffering discrimination, and that are victims of all kinds of nasty things, including war in the rest of the world. And we are shutting our doors on these and we are doing it in a very, very indifferent way. So, yes, a lack of solidarity within Europe, but with the rest of the world as well,” she said.Shada Islam also doesn’t like the idea of forcing member states to take in refugees, especially if the discussions turn around such small figures which she described as “peanuts”. However, she underlined the contradiction between Europe’s refusal to accept more refugees and its economical need of immigrants. "This is such a numbers game and I think, really, we are trying to distract from the real issues that are out there, which is Europe’s fear and Europe’s hostility towards the outside world. And Europe needs immigrants, Europe needs young labour. Europe is desperate for skills and talents. All the people in the world who are talented are going to Canada, America, Australia and sometimes the UK. But we need immigrants and we are rejecting those who are coming in, it is ironical.”, she stressed.

For the full article, visit:

http://euranetplus-inside.eu/europes-controversial-approach-to-deal-with-migrants/

Shada Islam quoted in 'Iranian nuclear deal set to increase trade with China' (asiaone 15/07/2015)

Teheran and six world powers reached a historic nuclear deal in Vienna, Austria, on Tuesday that will enable a revitalized sanction-free Iran to boost trade and cooperation with China, analysts said.The long-awaited agreement with China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States aims to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the gradual suspension of sanctions. The sanctions have slashed the Middle East country's oil exports and crippled its economy.Shada Islam, policy director of the Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe, said China could help Iran to mitigate the impact of the sanctions by providing short-term "emergency aid".This would help to meet shortfalls in the health sector and supply urgently needed essential items."In the long run, the focus will of course be on the development of Iran's infrastructure and oil and gas sector," said Islam. "Given its location and diverse regional interests, Iran will also inevitably play a crucial role in China's (new) Silk Road proposal."For the full article, visit:http://news.asiaone.com/news/world/iranian-nuclear-deal-set-increase-trade-china#sthash.4PJn8Abw.dpuf

Shada Islam quoted in 'China "constructive" on Iran nuclear deal: foreign minister' (ChinaDaily 15/07/2015)

China has played a uniquely constructive role in the historic nuclear deal concluded on Tuesday in Vienna, Austria, between Iran and six world powers, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The long-awaited agreement with China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States, known as the P5+1, aims to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the gradual suspension of sanctions."Today is a historical day," Wang told reporters after the agreement, as posted on the Foreign Ministry's website. [...] Wang expressed that China has participated in the whole process of the negotiation in a constructive manner. And China's uniquely constructive role has won praise from all the parties. But he also said that there is still much to do in implementing the deal, and he hopes that all the parties will earnestly implement their commitments.[...]Some experts also believe the agreement will enable a revitalized, sanction-free Iran to boost trade and cooperation with China. The sanctions have slashed the Middle East country's oil exports and crippled its economy.

Shada Islam, policy director of the Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe, said China could help Iran mitigate the impact of the sanctions by providing short-term "emergency aid". This would help to meet shortfalls in the health sector and supply urgently needed essential items."In the long run, the focus will of course be on the development of Iran's infrastructure and oil and gas sector," Islam said. "Given its location and diverse regional interests, Iran will also inevitably play a crucial role in China's (new) Silk Road proposal."For the full article, visit:http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-07/15/content_21285326.htm

Shada Islam quoted in 'EU Populists Vindicated by Tsipras’s Struggle Take Aim at Euro' (Bloomberg 14/07/2015)

Just because Alexis Tsipras had to bow to pressure from creditors, don’t expect the European Union’s renegade movements to give up their struggle anytime soon.

The Greek premier’s capitulation hands ammunition to those like Marine Le Pen in France and Beppe Grillo in Italy who see the EU as a totalitarian bloc that rides roughshod over national sovereignty and democracy. Grillo, who wants out of the euro, said in a blog post that Europe “humiliated” Greece. Tsipras was “forced to capitulate to EU despotism,” National Front leader Le Pen said in a televised news conference Monday. The bloc’s common currency, she said, is “not sustainable and a catastrophe.”Greece’s struggle with euro-area creditors over the terms of a third bailout echoed more broadly across the political spectrum, from Spain in the south to Scotland in the north. That solidarity fuels the risk of political instability as anti-establishment forces that variously reject austerity, oppose the EU or abhor the single currency feel vindicated by Greece’s treatment.

Government bond yields rose in Spain, Portugal and Ireland on Tuesday as the reverberations from Greece continued.“While Tsipras in the end had to play by the rules of the euro zone, the ‘enough is enough’ message from Syriza and similar movements resonated strongly across Europe,” Shada Islam, director of policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels, said by phone. “I don’t see that voters will become any less supportive of these parties.”

For the full article, visit:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-14/eu-populists-vindicated-by-tsipras-s-struggle-take-aim-at-euro

Shada Islam quoted in ‘Paris killings likely to fuel anti-Islam movements in Europe’ (Bloomberg News 07/01/2015)

The killing of at least 12 people at a French newspaper that received threats because of its depiction of Islam stands to exacerbate already burgeoning anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe.The shooting by masked gunmen at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in eastern Paris adds to a tense environment, with an anti-immigrant party dominating in France, mosque burnings in Sweden and thousands marching in Germany decrying the “Islamization” of the west...Europe’s political establishment, struggling to respond to the region’s sagging economy and near-record unemployment, has been buffeted by insurgent factions that have exploited a rise in sentiment against foreigners and Muslims.“Europe is in the grip of so much tension over the question of Islam and immigration,” said Shada Islam, director of policy at the Friends of Europe advisory group in Brussels. “There is the danger in the immediate aftermath that this is going to strengthen the anti-immigration campaigns, but you have to have a longer-term strategy when the emotions subside.”In France, polls show the anti-immigration National Front taking the lead in a first-round vote over established parties. The National Front has gained at least some traction by voicing fear of the spread of Islam. The country is home to Europe’s largest Muslim population, with more than 5 million people of the faith out of a population of about 65 million.World leaders lined up to condemn the shooting, the deadliest attack in France since World War II, with President Francois Hollande calling it an assault of “exceptional barbarity” against journalists and a free press. U.S. President Barack Obama said in a statement that “I strongly condemn the horrific shooting.”For the full article, visit https://www.centralmaine.com/2015/01/07/paris-killings-likely-to-fuel-anti-islam-movements-in-europe/

View from Abroad: Destination Brussels (Originally published 04/10/2014 at dawn.com)

The flight from Belgrade to Brussels is short and sweet, taking barely two hours. But Serbia and other western Balkan states face a long and frustrating wait before they become members of the European Union.Serbs say they aren’t too worried. They already are part of the “European family” and will be EU members before too long, fulfilling a long-held ambition of joining the European mainstream. But at the impressive Belgrade Security Forum that I attended last week, the mood of the participants — Serbs and others from neighbouring ex-Yugoslav nations — is palpably sombre.The incoming president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, has just said he does not plan to accept any new members of the EU for another five years. Forum attendees say they weren’t really expecting to join the EU very soon. But Juncker’s decision to stress the point is making every one uneasy and very uncomfortable.The prospect of the Balkans enlargement morphing into a “Turkey scenario” is on people’s mind. Ankara has been negotiating with the EU for almost a decade. Progress is insultingly slow. Talks open, then stall, then come to a halt.There’s no final date for EU entry. Meanwhile, Turkey is looking to play a more proactive role in its troubled neighbourhood than in Europe.Optimistic participants at the Belgrade Forum say they will use the next five years to continue negotiations, ironing out difficulties in all the multiple “chapters” that are under discussion. “We will be ready to join in five years and one day,” one speaker underlines, referring to Juncker’s timeline. “That should be our ambition and our goal.”But others are more realistic. The EU is sending them a strong political message of disinterest and “enlargement fatigue”. Juncker’s new team does not even include a top official solely in charge of expansion. Instead the new commissioner, an Austrian, will be responsible for the EU’s discredited “neighbourhood policy” which deals with ex-Soviet states as well as “enlargement negotiations”. Most see this as a policy downgrade.A former ambassador from the Czech Republic whose country joined the EU in the so-called “Big Bang” enlargement in 2004 which saw the entry of eight former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe as well as Malta and Cyprus, says Balkan states should not worry because membership of the EU is always a painstaking, nit-picking, technocratic exercise. Stay patient, he advises.A colleague from Croatia, which joined the EU in 2011, says Serbia and others won’t be inside the EU for at least another 10 years. “And that’s the optimistic scenario,” he says wryly.No one wonder that Twitter messages during the Belgrade conference warn that “Europe has lost its magic in the Balkans.” Could it be, asks another message, that all the western Balkan states could join in one go in 2020? Another advises the would-be members to lie low. With European public opinion in anti-expansion mood, it’s “better to slip in silently rather than with fireworks exploding”.It wasn’t supposed to be so complicated. After all bringing in eastern nations is an essential part of the “European project” of peace and prosperity for all neighbours. Enlargement is viewed as the best and most successful example of European “soft power”, that much-touted ability to prompt change and transformation through trade, aid and reform.But times have changed. The Eurozone crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown have made the EU wary of spending on non-EU members and of taking on more financial responsibilities. The rise of the Far Right parties across Europe is an indication that “foreigners”, even those who are European, are no longer welcome.And the western Balkans have their share of economic, political, social and ethnic problems to solve. The region was gripped by devastating ethnic wars in the 1990s. Neighbour killed neighbour while the EU looked on helplessly. There were allegations of war crimes, Nato air strikes against Serbian targets and finally the signature of peace agreements, including the Dayton accords in 1995 which ended the war in Bosnia. The war in Kosovo ended in 1999 with the Nato bombing of Serbia.In fact, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is currently being tried at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague for the July 1995 murder of thousands of Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica.The region has moved on since then but scars remain and relations among neighbours can still be strained. Also, organised crime and corruption are rife. Many economies are faltering and foreign investments are modest. However, Italy’s Fiat has just started producing cars at its new manufacturing plant in Serbia and Chinese investors are scouring around for business opportunities. There is hope for the future.And then there’s the question of relations with Russia. Serbian colleagues tell me they feel under pressure to choose between Moscow and Brussels, pointing to a dilemma which Ukraine also faced before Russia’s invasion of Crimea earlier this year.The Forum panel I take part in seeks bravely to seek common ground between the western transatlantic agenda and Russia’s competing Eurasian vision. Panellists say there is no second Cold War in the making but admit relations between Russia and the West have hit rock bottom under the very assertive President Vladimir Putin. Balkan countries don’t want to choose but say that staying “neutral” is becoming more and more difficult.As I leave Belgrade it is clear that despite Russia’s siren song, Serbs and other Balkan nationals firmly believe that they belong to the EU. “What’s your destination?” the very kind hotel receptionist asks me as I check out. “Brussels,” I tell him. “Just like for Serbia,” he says.

View From Abroad: Worrying over Scotland’s ripple effect (Originally published 13/09/14 at dawn.com)

Artur Mas is watching next week’s referendum on Scottish independence with an eagle eye. The president of the Spanish region of Catalonia is not alone.The Scottish vote next Thursday is under scrutiny in a host of European regions where leaders and public opinion are hoping that if Scotland votes to go it alone and leave the United Kingdom, their own regions’ aspirations for independence could gain traction.Yes, certainly, any Scottish vote for independence will trigger a domino effect for similar situations throughout Europe. Not surprisingly, Spain is worried as are Belgium and France.In fact, representatives of Catalans, South Tiroleans, Corsicans, Bretons, Frisians and “Finland-Swedes” are headed for Scotland to witness the vote. Even Bavaria in Germany is sending a delegation.The interest in Scotland is no surprise. History offers few examples of nations splitting up in a consensual way. There was of course the so-called “velvet divorce” between the Czechs and the Slovaks in 1993. And Norway also voted for independence from Sweden in 1905.But as the creation of Bangladesh illustrates, nation states often go to war when a region seeks secession.Importantly, it’s not just the rest of Europe that is watching the debate in Scotland. For instance, China is worried that Taiwan could become more confrontational.Look carefully and it appears that Europe is in the grip of a contradictory movement: even as the “big is beautiful” debate gains traction and the Union of 28 states moves towards more integration — and more countries join the queue to become members of the EU — restless regions in many nations yearn for more autonomy.It’s about cultural identity, not just in a globalised world, but about identity in a nation state. About being recognised as significant and different — and often about economic interest.Scotland thinks it would be better off it did not have to share its oil and gas revenues with the rest of the UK. Flanders thinks its funds are being misused by the less prosperous Walloonia region.Truth be told: it’s not just the countries facing such “secessionist” moves that are struggling to understand the new trend, the wider EU is also not prepared.A further complication is of course that irrespective of the results of the Scottish vote, Britain itself may end up leaving the EU.Yes, it’s a mess. As Scotland prepares to vote on Sept 18, the debate appears fairly civilised. Britain has accepted the referendum and says it will abide by the results.Certainly, Prime Minister David Cameron and other political leaders are campaigning actively — and emotionally — for Scotland to stay in the UK — and even the Queen is reportedly worried about Scottish independence. And interestingly, London is promising all kinds of goodies if Scotland votes “no” to independence next week. But it all seems fairly civilised and – dare I say it – good-natured.Not so in Spain. Madrid is undoubtedly worried that Scotland’s situation could embolden separatists in the Catalonia region and a tentatively scheduled referendum set for Nov 9 in Catalonia has been ruled unconstitutional by Spanish courts and the Spanish government.With 7.5 million Catalans speaking their own language and running a large economy in north-eastern Spain, the separatist politicians in Barcelona command huge support. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to block Catalan plans for independence referendum and to ignore the results.In addition to Catalonia, the Basque region of Spain also is home to a budding legion of separatists who want to vote for independence.Catalan leader Mas has said a “yes” vote in Scotland would be positive for Catalonia’s independence movement.In Belgium, it’s Flanders that is getting increasingly restless. The symbolic value of what is going to happen in Scotland is very important,” according to Gerolf Annemans, president of Vlaams Belang, a Flemish party calling for Flanders to secede from Belgium.According to Gerard Dykstra, a spokesman for Corsica Libera, a political party formed from a variety of pro-independence organisations early last year, separating from France is about giving Corsicans their “national rights”.“We are the lonely people in Europe. We are a nation in Europe that does not have its rights.”Interestingly both Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond and Artur Mas insist that even though they want to exit their nation states, they want continued EU membership — or re-entry into the EU.But Brussels has warned that such thinking is naive and that Scotland cannot count on automatic EU membership if it leaves the UK.The conventional wisdom in Brussels is that Scotland will have to negotiate EU entry just like any other applicant country. And it seems likely that Spain for one — fearing a precedent for Catalonia — will veto Scotland’s membership.And Salmond should take note: the new European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said that he does not see any further EU “enlargement” over the next five years.And in case, Scotland thinks it can cut corners, Salmond may want to chat with his friends in Ankara: Turkey has been trying to negotiate EU membership and the like for almost 50 years. And the discussions could take another fifty.

Afghanistan: beyond elections (Originally published 01/04/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Afghans go to the polls on April 5 to elect a new leader to replace President Hamid Karzai. The elections – leading to Afghanistan’s first-ever peaceful democratic transfer of power – are important. As Western forces withdraw from the country and development aid dwindles, the winner will have to tackle an array of complex challenges requiring innovative and strategic thinking.Afghanistan’s next president faces the gigantic task of stabilising a country racked by a continuing violent insurgency and an economy in tatters. Relations with neighbours must be improved. Stability beyond 2014 is also conditional on the ability of Afghanistan’s new leaders to hang on to hard-won gains.Attention is inevitably focused on the polls and negotiation of a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States (US). However, democracy and accountability are not ensured by elections alone. Election monitors, both foreign and Afghan, must do their best to ensure that the polls are transparent and fair. The focus this time around must, however, also be on good governance, not merely on identifying winners and losers.The US is certainly the key player in Afghanistan but the European Union (EU) is also well-placed to help the country weather difficulties ahead. The change in leadership offers an opportunity to reinvigorate EU-Afghanistan relations and forge a stronger long-term partnership.First, the good news. Voter turn-out is expected to be impressive. A recent survey published by the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) shows that more than 91 percent of respondents support the holding of elections and more than 74 percent want to participate.Large numbers of army, police and international forces as well as local observers have been deployed to help secure the elections. More than 13,000 women will also help with security to boost gender participation. A large number of younger voters will be casting their ballots for the first time.The line-up of candidates is convincing. The three main candidates — former Foreign Ministers Abdullah Abdullah, Zalmai Rassoul and former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani — have sound experience. Qayum Karzai, President Karzai's brother, has formally withdrawn his bid for president and announced support for Rassoul. Significantly, the presidential campaign has not only centred on personalities, but also on issues.Observers say some fraud and vote rigging is inevitable, but not on the massive scale that characterised the 2009 polls. With no candidate expected to emerge as an outright winner on April 5, a run-off election is expected, delaying the installation of a new leader until July or August.The list of challenges is daunting. Security continues to be a major problem. Kabul and a number of other provinces have experienced a spate of suicide attacks and assassinations after the Taliban leadership issued a statement last month promising to "use all force" possible to disrupt the elections. The recent attack on the Independent Afghan Election Commission was especially deadly.Afghanistan’s economy remains in shambles – and highly dependent on the presence of international forces. Despite the billions of dollars poured into the country, Afghanistan continues to lie near the bottom of global development rankings. Poverty is widespread, with the government estimating that 42 per cent of the country's total population lives below the national poverty line.As foreign troops pull out and investment dries up, growth is expected to tumble to 3.5 per cent in 2014, down sharply from 14.4 per cent in 2012. Rampant corruption and patronage further hinder economic development.Yet Afghanistan has a wealth of natural resources and a young population which – if the conditions are right – can ensure economic development. Agriculture, mining, and services are likely to remain the drivers of growth but more needs to be done to increase private-sector investment, improve domestic resource mobilisation and foster job creation. The new government will face the challenge of pressing for critical sector-specific reforms, including the Mining Law. It will also have to tackle the sharp increase in opium poppy cultivationTies with Pakistan remain fraught, owing to Kabul’s allegations of Islamabad’s involvement in terror incidents in Afghanistan. Relations with other regional powers are less fraught but will need to be carefully nurtured to avoid a repeat of the instability of the 1990s.The EU is one of Afghanistan’s major aid partners, spending over 2 billion euros in Afghanistan since 2002. Promises of long-term support have been made with Europe’s special representative to Afghanistan, Franz-Michael Skjold Mellbin, underlining that the “EU will remain as a key partner for Afghanistan, as Afghanistan moves toward a decade of transformation.”Moving beyond aid, the EU and Afghanistan are discussing a comprehensive strategy which will focus on areas where the EU can add most value, including further improvements in access to health and education and respect for human rights.Going forward, the EU must remain engaged and build on the successes of the past. Europe is well placed to share its expertise and support Afghanistan in turning the page. Over the past years, the EU has helped the government to provide basic services in three main areas: governance and rule of law, agriculture and rural development and health and social protection. Security sector reform should become more important.Recognising the important role that women play in shaping peace and security, women’s rights should be given a higher priority in EU contacts with Afghanistan. Stronger support for Afghan civil society will remain important.The election of a new president presents an opportunity to finalise EU-Afghan negotiations on a Cooperation Agreement on Partnership and Development (CAPD). With its focus on trade, development and home affairs, the agreement will not significantly change the nature of the relationship. It will, however, give a much-needed political push to EU-Afghan relations.If real change is to come, however, the EU will need to adopt a stricter and tougher approach. Future EU support should require a clear reaffirmation by the new government that Afghanistan wants a genuine and accountable partnership. The EU should continue to prod and pressure Afghanistan to meet its commitments under the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF) which includes pledges to undertake tax reform, respect human rights and the rights of women and promote the rule of law.The upcoming elections are important, but should be looked at as part of a long-term transition process. Afghanistan needs a new government – but above all it needs good governance.

In Central African Republic, European Defence Stutters (Originally published 21/03/2014, co-authored with John Pollock)

With the European Union focused on the crisis in Ukraine, plans to deploy an EU military force to help end ethnic violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) are looking decidedly uncertain. EU foreign ministers on March 17 underlined the “need to speed up work on the preparation” of the mission but with key equipment and personnel still lacking, the expected launch of the mission has now been set for late-April. Don’t hold your breath, however.The delay is tragic for CAR where the ethnic conflict has already claimed thousands of lives and EU troops are desperately needed to help African Union and French forces struggling to prevent a full-fledged civil war.It is also undeniably unfortunate for the EU’s much publicized hopes of establishing its credentials as an international security actor. France has justifiably accused its EU partners of not living up to their word and shirking responsibility for global security. General Philippe Ponties, head of the planned EU military operation in the CAR (EUFOR), says it is the political crisis in Ukraine which is distracting EU governments.Although France, Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Portugal and Spain have agreed to contribute to the mission, Ponties has warned that the launch still needs logistical support of about 100 soldiers, ranging from medical to logistical needs. The EU plan agreed in January – following a United Nations Security Council resolution in December 2013 – calls for the dispatch of 800 to 1,000 soldiers to join 6,000 African and 2,000 French troops who are struggling to stop the ethnic cleansing of CAR’s Muslim population. The EU force would focus on providing security in the capital Bangui and at Bangui airport, where around 70,000 people who have fled the violence are living in dire conditions.It’s not just the crisis in Ukraine which is responsible for the EU’s slow response to the humanitarian tragedy in CAR. Undoubtedly, it is the ghosts of the last ten years that are haunting Europe’s response to the crisis. Since 1991, European nations have undertaken multiple interventions in the world’s trouble spots, with varying degrees of success. The last ten years in Afghanistan and especially Iraq have been a humbling and deeply disturbing experience, producing a reluctance to ever again send large, expeditionary forces overseas. As a result, in the streets of Bangui, the ghosts of Rwanda are coming face to face with the reality of the challenges in Afghanistan.The overthrow in March 2013 of President François Bozizé by majority Muslim Séléka militias was the catalyst for the recent wave of bloodshed in CAR. With the state increasingly fragmented and a cycle of violence developing, people’s identities increasingly came to be defined by ethnic and religious differences. By December last year, terms such as genocide were being used as Christian ‘anti-balaka’ militias, eager for payback following Bozizé’s ouster, ethnically cleansed the Muslim neighbourhoods in the capital of Bangui and in the wider countryside.The French-African Union intervention faltered not long after arriving. The limited force levels soon proved problematic, with foreign forces disarming militias where possible but unable to move into the countryside, where the greatest numbers of atrocities were occurring. The number of peacekeepers involved in Operation Sangaris is not enough to stabilise Bangui and the surrounding areas. Even before the intervention force arrived, 70,000 Muslim refugees had taken shelter in the French base at Bangui international airport, one million more were on the move internally and starvation threatened over half of CAR’s 4 million people.Thus almost twenty years after the international community’s failure in Rwanda and the Great Lakes, a small number of international peacekeepers are once again protecting limited safe areas, surrounded by escalating violence they cannot control, in a society at war with itself.In fact, EU battle groups which have been on standby since 2007, were created for such a circumstance, to deploy under a legal United Nations mandate to protect civilians and avert another humanitarian tragedy in the heart of Africa. The battle groups, however, are not being sent or even considered. This leads to the assumption that smaller, more targeted interventions, are likely to be the trend of future Western military operations. Clearly few in Europe or North America wish a repeat of the last decade when thousands of troops on the ground engaged an enemy that does not wear uniforms.The current climate is very different from the mood in the 1990s when arguments for humanitarian intervention were at their strongest and large Western-led multinational forces sought to help rebuild failed states. The moral certainty the West displayed in Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor and Sierra Leone has been replaced by a hard-learned realism and a hesitancy to place boots on the ground. In CAR, an increased EU security role beyond logistical support is unlikely and a major ground deployment is largely unthinkable.Europe will therefore very likely accept a far lighter military footprint and focus on financial and humanitarian efforts in countries like CAR. The EU has just agreed to give 81 million euros in humanitarian assistance to the country. Such assistance is vital. But as EU and African leaders are likely to underline at the EU-Africa Summit in Brussels, on April 2-3, the security situation in CAR means it will be difficult, if not impossible, to ensure the distribution of the aid. Past conflicts have also shown that providing humanitarian aid keeps refugees from starving, but does not halt ethnic cleansing.

ASEAN-EU: the challenge of connectivity (Originally published 25/02/2014, co-authored with Patricia Diaz)

Southeast Asia’s ambitious plans to boost region-wide economic integration – and consolidate its position as a key transport, communication and tourism hub - hinge largely on forging stronger transport, regulatory and people-to-people links among the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) .The Master Plan on Connectivity adopted by ASEAN leaders in October 2010 is the region’s response to the challenge. With its focus on three dimensions – physical, institutional and people-to-people - the Master Plan underlines that while hard infrastructure is important, an enabling regulatory framework and a shared identity also play a crucial role in better connecting ASEAN countries with each other and with the rest of the world.The Master Plan is certainly impressive. The priority now is to turn it into reality.Certainly governments across the region are convinced of the economic, political and social importance of the initiative. As such, as the drive to establish an ASEAN Economic Community by end-2015 picks up speed, with countries working to achieve intra-regional free movement of goods, services, investment, and skilled labour, as well as a freer flow of capital, ASEAN’s connectivity agenda is a top priority.Implementing the Master Plan requires money, technical assistance and region-wide as well as global partnerships. Not surprisingly, connectivity is the buzzword in ASEAN’s recent dealings with key partners including China, Japan and the United States.The first ASEAN-EU Dialogue on Connectivity being held in Brussels this week makes the European Union an essential part of this important conversation. It also gives a further boost to already-expanding ASEAN-EU relations.With a population of approximately 600 million, a combined GDP of over $2 trillion, and still-impressive growth rates, ASEAN attracts global attention. The EU and ASEAN are major trading partners with over €200 billion of bilateral trade in goods and services. Recent years have seen a significant upgrading of relations between the two sides, with the adoption in 2012 of the Bandar Seri Begawan Plan of Action and the EU’s accession to the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - a non-aggression and cooperation pact between ASEAN members and their partners - paving the way for a broader and deeper relationship.Exchanging experienceThe EU-ASEAN Dialogue on Connectivity offers the two regional actors an important platform to exchange experiences and best practices. The EU’s vast experience in establishing a single market, building transport networks and connecting member states and regions is unique – and of great value to ASEAN. The Dialogue also offers opportunities for discussions on public and private financing for the Master Plan projects.The Dialogue on Connectivity follows the 21st meeting of the ASEAN-EU Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) held in January in Jakarta and the successful EU-ASEAN Aviation Summit in February in Singapore. An ASEAN-EU High Level Dialogue on Maritime Cooperation was also held in November 2013. The results of these encounters will feed into the ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting later this year.The EU is already working closely with ASEAN to spur connectivity through border management and higher education. The ASEAN-EU Border Management Project aims at improving cross-border facilitation and management to ease the movement of goods and people. An EU Support to Higher Education in ASEAN Region (EU SHARE) programme supports ASEAN institutions to develop regional higher education frameworks and aims to increase student mobility within ASEAN as well as to the EU. More than 4000 ASEAN students travel to Europe each year on EU scholarships.The ASEAN Regional Integration Support from the EU (ARISE) project, meanwhile, helps ASEAN’s economic integration drive while more generally, also helping to strengthen the operational capacity of the ASEAN Secretariat. Significant progress has also been made in the area of Information and communications technology (ICT).The week-long visit to Brussels will provide the ASEAN delegation with insight into many of the EU’s connectivity initiatives, with visits also planned to the Antwerp Port and the European Investment Bank. Meetings are also scheduled with European business representatives whose interest in ASEAN connectivity is on the rise.Public-Private PartnershipsASEAN’s focus on the role of public-private partnerships in implementing the Master Plan is strong, with the organisation’s Secretary General, Le Luong Minh, recently underlining the need to increase private sector investment in the region to address the massive financing requirements for ASEAN Connectivity projects.Through public-private partnerships, governments would be able to work with the private sector to close funding gaps and tap expertise to develop sustainable and high-quality infrastructure. As such, said Minh, more efforts are needed “to create a favourable environment for PPPs, which in turn, will support our ASEAN Connectivity agenda.”ASEAN’s many partners, including the EU are clearly banking on – and backing – sustained growth and development across the region. As Cesar V. Purisima, Finance Secretary of the Philippines, said in a recent speech at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Singapore, “ASEAN is in the right place of the world for the next 30 to 50 years…If looked at as a single country, ASEAN will be among the top ten economies in terms of population, and probably among the youngest.”ASEAN cannot be faulted for its ambitious integration agenda and for making connectivity a top priority in its drive to set up an economic community. The way ahead will be challenging, however, as the region seeks to boost intra-regional trade, build modern and efficient infrastructure, harmonise different regulations and create bonds between its citizens.The participation of the private sector in meeting these and other goals will be crucial. As such, ASEAN must make it easier for businesses – national and foreign - to operate in the region. As Purisima pointed out, “Businesses will boom if ASEAN integrates successfully but this is not possible without their participation... That is the challenge for the private sector, to become a catalyst for integration itself.” The message is likely to be reiterated in Brussels.ASEAN members include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Just talk? Germany gets tough on defence (Originally published 11/02/2014)

You know that something new is afoot in Europe when Germany starts talking tough on defence.German President Joachim Gauck’s much-publicised call for his country to put aside World War II anxieties and play a bigger military role abroad has been hailed as a step in the right direction for a country which has spent its post-war years in an anti-military funk.Coming only a few weeks after EU leaders held their first discussion in five years on EU defence and security, Gauck’s comments have raised hopes of a new era of more pro-active and potent European defence at a time when increased violence and bloodshed in the Central African Republic and events in Mali are pushing the EU to step up its military presence in Africa in support of French and African Union troops.The German president’s appeal for Berlin’s re-engagement with Europe – as well as with NATO and the United States - on defence and security issues is music to the ears of its partners who, in recent years, have despaired of Germany’s reluctance to take a prominent, less risk-averse role in the EU’s so-far fairly modest military adventures.Change appears to be in the air – at least if some of Germany’s top political players are to be believed. Gauck suggested it was time that Germany stopped looking in the rear-view mirror of history. While there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness,” Gauck said at the recent Munich Security Conference, a yearly meeting of European and US security chiefs. “Restraint can be taken too far,” he warned.The German leader has an important ally in the country’s new defence minister, Ursula von der Leyen, who told the Munich meeting: “We are ready to support destruction of chemical agents from Syria. We are willing to reinforce our contribution to efforts in Mali and, if needed, to support the European mission in the Central African Republic.” Germany’s decision to become more engaged in Mali and in the Central African Republic was about European interests. “Should a large part of Africa become destabilised, it could have grave consequences for us,” von der Leyen said in an interview with Der Spiegel.The German defence minister has said she also favours more progress on forging a European defence identity. Joint armed forces would be “a logical consequence of increasingly close military cooperation in Europe” she told Der Spiegel recently. But in a reference to the long-standing German view that armies are deployed by parliament, not the executive, she cautioned: “European parliaments cannot be rendered powerless.” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s comments that Germany “is too big to only comment on world politics from the sidelines” are also in striking contrast to former German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle who opposed US intervention in Libya (which was backed by France and Britain).The rhetoric is impressive but is Germany really undergoing a serious change of heart on defence? Certainly, NATO, the US and the EU are hoping that in addition to the leading role it has assumed in the euro zone crisis, Berlin will shed past caution by adopting a more robust and less combat-shy stance on defence. Moving from words to action will not be easy, however. Gauck and von der Leyen may be hailed by Germany’s partners but German public opinion remains wary of embarking on foreign military missions. A recent poll by the German national TV station, ARD, said 61 percent of Germans do not want to send more soldiers abroad. While other surveys show public support for more engagement in humanitarian missions in Africa, a majority of Germans continue to oppose a bigger overseas military role.Significantly also, while von der Leyen and Gauck may have talked of increasing the number of soldiers abroad, in time-honoured German tradition, neither referred to the more significant question of whether they would be allowed to take a combat role.The 5,000 Germany personnel who currently take part in nine international missions, including more than 3,000 in Afghanistan, mostly work on training local security forces. In the French-led intervention in Mali, about 100 German military personnel provide support such as troop transport flights and training. And Germany has said it may again provide logistical support - but not firepower – in the upcoming European mission to the Central African Republic.Gauck’s message of commitment and global engagement may therefore be the first sign of new thinking in Berlin. While the conversation on a new German defence posture has started, however, no one should expect an overnight change.