EU frets as ‘Populist International’ moves fast to win votes

Legend has it that the European Union thrives on crisis and shows its true colours — its strength and resilience — when life gets tough. Not this time.

As predicted in this column two weeks ago, Donald Trump’s election victory has dealt the EU a body blow. All 28 EU governments — and yes the EU still has 28 members until Britain actually goes out the door at a yet-undecided date — are still reeling from the surprise election result.

To be fair, the bloc has a lot on his hands. Brexit and the refugee crisis continue to weigh heavy. Relations with Russia and Turkey are at an all-time low. And populists, both in government and in opposition, stalk the land.

And now, their bedrock, the “transatlantic relationship” looks like it is in tatters.

As they bade a teary-eyed farewell to President Barack Obama last week, EU leaders had much to worry about.

First, Trump is certainly unlikely to be a pro-European president. He does not like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), is sceptical of Nato and if Moscow is to be believed has promised to normalise relations with Russia.

Second, all this would be manageable if EU countries were able to put aside their differences and forge a united stance vis-a-vis Washington.

Alas. Hopes of a united front to deal with Trump have been dashed. A hastily scheduled working dinner of EU foreign ministers called by the German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier and EU special representative for foreign and security policy Federica Mogherini last week was boycotted by Britain and France.

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who once said he was afraid of running into Trump while in the US, decided he was tired of the EU’s “whinge-orama” over Trump’s election victory. France said it had urgent business to attend to at home.

Some EU officials like Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have warned that Trump must get up to speed on how Europe works in order to avoid “two years of wasted time” when he assumes his new role.

“Mr Trump, during his campaign, said that Belgium was a village somewhere in Europe,” Juncker said in his frank remarks to students in Luxembourg, adding: “We must teach the president-elect what Europe is and how it works.”

Juncker said that Trump had called Nato into question, which could have “harmful consequences” because it is the model of Europe’s defence.

The US president-elect had also “taken a view of refugees and non-white Americans that does not reflect European convictions and feelings”, he added.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has lectured Trump on “shared values” and hinted relations depended on the future American president’s respect for “democracy, freedom, respect for the right and dignity of every individual, irrespective of origin, colour, religion, sex, sexual orientation or political attitude”.

No surprise then that Obama’s farewell visit to several EU countries, including Germany, last week turned into a long and painful goodbye.

Emotions were running specially high in Berlin where Obama and Merkel praised each other as “outstanding partners”, with the US president expressing hopes that Trump would stand up to Russian President Vladimir Putin when he deviates from US “values and international norms”.

In a joint op-ed, Obama and Merkel defended aid for refugees “because we know it is our treatment of those most vulnerable that determines the true strength of our values”. They hailed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation — from which Trump has threatened to pull back — as a cornerstone of peace.

Still, even Merkel knows it’s time to move on. As the de facto leader of the EU, the German chancellor has a lot on her plate. The next few months are going to be extremely difficult for Berlin and Brussels.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has vowed to resign if he loses a referendum on constitutional reform on December 4, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else.

Meanwhile in Austria, far-right Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer and former Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen will run again on Dec 4 after Austria’s Constitutional Court annulled the results of May’s presidential vote and called for a rerun.

The court said the May election, in which Van der Bellen narrowly beat Hofer, would have to be repeated after the discovery of irregularities in vote counting across several districts.

Although the presidency is a largely symbolic role in Austria, the Freedom Party’s potential success would herald a major victory for Europe’s far right parties ahead of elections next year in the Netherlands, France and Germany.

The fear in Europe is that far-right populists Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen will give mainstream parties a run for their month in both the Netherlands and France.

Ominously, Breitbart, the so-called alt-right news organisation that is often described as “misogynist, racist and xenophobic”, is reportedly planning to expand to Europe ahead of the crucial elections next year.

Breitbart is believed to have been instrumental in helping Trump win the elections. Steve Bannon, executive chairman of the organisation, has been appointed senior counsellor and chief strategist for Trump.

Meanwhile, Aaron Banks, the millionaire who helped fund the Brexit campaign in the UK, has also promised to take his campaign to France ahead of the elections.

Members of “Populist International” are moving fast to gain votes while EU leaders wring their hands in despair.

No time to waste in crafting a new narrative for Europe

Post-Brexit Britain is changing fast as key Leave campaigners scurry off the stage, political parties start the tortuous process of selecting new leaders and ordinary citizens grapple with the myriad ramifications of the June 23 decision.

The Leave vote is also impacting on the European Union in many, complicated and yet-to-be identified, ways. The separation or divorce is going to be long and painful. There may even be a last-chance attempt at reconciliation.

Some things, however, look set to stay the same.

Britain’s historic decision to leave the EU has not changed European leaders’ chronic inability to respond to crises with grace and dignity. Britain’s political class has sullied its reputation even further while EU leaders have become entangled — once again — in power struggles and premature battles over the future of an EU of 27 states.

Brexit has not prompted much-needed soul-searching on the EU’s failure to connect, respond and interact with citizens, especially younger ones. And, sadly, as illustrated by the failure of the Remain campaign, it has not yet sparked a serious reflection on crafting a positive EU story for the 21st Century.

Old habits die hard. But now more than ever, if it is to thrive, flourish and exert influence in an increasingly cut-throat world, the EU urgently needs an inspirational new narrative in step with the changing times.

The truth is that Europe does have a convincing story to tell. But it has no one to tell it.

The massive pro-EU demonstration in London on July 2 is proof that Europe resonates and matters. It matters not just to the vocal segment of the 48 per cent of Britons who voted to stay in the EU but also to those who were misled by the lies and myths propagated by the Leave camp and are now having second thoughts.

It matters to young people who feel betrayed by an older generation which voted to withdraw from the EU — and to the others who may not have cast their ballot but now wish they had. It matters to ethnic minorities who face an unacceptable increase in racial and religious abuse in the wake of the referendum.

Most importantly, Europe matters to millions of other European voters who will be going to the polls in the coming months in France, Germany and elsewhere and who may be enticed into voting for Frexit or Nexit if referendums are called in France and the Netherlands by far right leaders Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, respectively.

Crafting a new EU story requires more than just countering the lies, misinformation and toxic myths being disseminated by far right and populist politicians. Relying on facts and figures to get the message across is important — but not enough. The success of the Leave campaigners shows that in the midst of fear and hate, facts don’t matter — until it is too late.

What counts are leaders with passion who can get others to listen to them and stay on message. Interestingly, rare but convincing and passionate calls for Remain were made in the last three days ahead of the UK referendum by Scottish Conservative Ruth Davidson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan in a televised debate with Leave’s leading campaigner Boris Johnson.

The EU story needs to be recounted by those who believe in what they are “selling” and know how to discuss, engage and connect with people. A European narrative disseminated half-heartedly as it was by many, including outgoing British Prime Minister David Cameron, just cannot do the trick.

Drafting a new EU narrative also requires a shift away from listening exclusively to the shrill clamour of the populists to also paying attention to the calmer voice and the aspirations of those Europeans who want — and are working to create — a more tolerant, open and inclusive Europe.

The pro-EU banners and placards carried at the recent massive rally in London should provide inspiration for writers of the new EU story. So should the actions of the many ordinary people, non-governmental organisations, businesses and mayors who are going out of their way in many parts of Europe to welcome refugees and migrants with food, shelter and jobs. Their stories are hardly ever told. And yet they — not just the far right that all politicians pander to — are also part of Europe’s “reality”.

Populists are certainly a threat to Europe’s values and to European democracy. But so are mainstream political parties which have embraced their message. The EU’s so-far fractious and incoherent response to Brexit is not going to endear it to citizens.

As it heads into uncharted waters, the EU needs to highlight what is good, constructive and positive about Europe. And it needs to do so with courage, conviction and self-confidence — and with leaders who show grace under fire. Nothing else will work.