VIEW FROM ABROAD: Turkey and EU (Originally published 10/10/2015 at Dawn.com)

Crises can result in strange bedfellows. Having criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his “authoritarian” ways, European Union leaders are now turning to the Turkish leader to help ease the unprecedented influx of refugees on to EU territory.As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg: “In the refugee crisis, Turkey and the EU walk together and work together.”Not surprisingly Erdogan is making the most of it. The Turkish president has not endeared himself to democrats and human rights activists at home or abroad with his clampdown on the media, arrest of opponents, the crackdown on civil society protests, lavish spending on his official residence and other actions, including targeting of Syrian Kurdish strongholds.Relations between the EU and Turkey have been on the backburner for several years as the 28-nation bloc has fretted and sweated at the rollback of reforms in a country which is a candidate to join the EU.EU membership negotiations have been put on hold. Turkey has sulked, saying its interests lie to its east, not the west.The EU has raged against Ankara’s disregard for European values. Relations are still strained. But both Turkey and the EU are more vulnerable than in the past.Ankara’s dreams and ambitions of becoming an indispensable regional player have been destroyed by Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s refusal to listen to Turkey. As a result, Erdogan’s influence in the region is not as potent as it was a few years ago.Europe’s many vulnerabilities are common knowledge. Even as Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has opened the borders to refugees from Syria, the sudden and massive arrival of hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers has eroded public and political support for the move.And so to the negotiating table where Erdogan and the EU engage in horse-trading over the fate of refugees from Syria and other countries in conflict even as they try to put their own relations back on track.According to media reports, the Europeans are offering eventually to take half a million Syrians from new refugee and asylum-processing camps they would co-fund in Turkey in return for Ankara tightening its borders to stop people being smuggled in hazardous vessels to Greece, and agreeing to take back migrants who make it “illegally” to Europe via Turkey.As part of any possible pact, Erdogan is asking for a relaxation in visa requirements for Turks travelling to Europe. He also wants the EU to list Turkey as “a safe third country”, effectively whitewashing Ankara’s increasingly repressive policies and deteriorating human rights and media freedoms record.“Europe has to manage its borders better. We expect Turkey to do the same,” said Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, following talks with Erdogan. “The situation where hundreds of thousands are fleeing to the European Union from Turkey must be stopped.”Erdogan responded that Ankara was hosting almost 10 times as many Syrian refugees as the EU. While open to talks with Brussels, he said the key to stopping the flow of refugees was to establish a no-fly zone over the Turkish-Syria border and a buffer zone in northern Syria.This is viewed as a non-starter in Europe and in Washington, but Tusk said: “The European Union is ready to take up all issues with Turkey so we can also discuss a possible buffer zone in Syria.”Turkey is home to two million Syrian refugees and is the source of most of the influx into Europe of recent months. A pact with Turkey is now seen as the key to the effort to turn chaos into control.The aim is to have the Turks and the Greeks mount joint border controls at sea, organised by Frontex, the EU’s borders agency and that intercepted boat people be turned back to Turkey.Meanwhile, in an unusual joint appeal, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have urged European politicians to pull together amid multiple crises in a bid to heal EU divisions caused by the influx of refugees, debt crises and encroaching nationalist sentiment.In separate addresses to the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, both leaders underlined the risks now besetting the EU’s 28 nations.“The debate is not about less Europe or more Europe,” Mr Hollande told politicians, evoking the question of national sovereignty besetting member nations. “It is about the affirmation of Europe or the end of Europe. Yes, the end of Europe.”Chancellor Merkel, who has come forward as the champion of refugees flowing into Europe, said overcoming the refugee crisis together is a key challenge for the European Union.“It is precisely now,” she said, “that we need more Europe ... If we overcome that, we will be stronger after the crisis than before.”It was the first such joint appearance in Strasbourg since 1989, when West German chancellor Helmut Kohl and French president Francois Mitterrand spoke days after the fall of the Berlin Wall.“In the refugee crisis we must not succumb to the temptation of falling back into acting in nationalistic terms,” said Ms Merkel, standing next to French President Hollande, adding: “National solo efforts are no solution to the refugee crisis.”Significantly even as the two EU leaders were speaking in Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that a combined EU naval mission known as EU Navfor Med will now be able “to board, search and seize vessels in international waters, [after which] suspected smugglers and traffickers will be transferred to the Italian judicial authorities”.Yes, Europe is confused, overwhelmed and uncertain about what to do next. President Erdogan, in contrast, knows exactly what he wants: respect and recognition from a Europe that has too often disregarded Turkey as an important ally. And, ultimately, Turkish membership of the 28-nation European Union.

View from abroad: It’s official: the EU is in a mess (Originally published 12/09/2015 at Dawn.com)

The 28-member bloc is in disarray, beset by crises, member governments are squabbling, people are angry and disenchanted, leaders are mostly querulous and hesitant — and sometimes outrageously odious.This isn’t just the opinion of just any EU watcher or EU insider; it’s the point of view of Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive body.“The European Union is not in a good state,” Juncker told the European Parliament in his first-ever “State of Europe” address this week. “There is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough union in this Union.”Unusually for a politician, Juncker did not mince his words during his hour-long speech to the 700 plus EU parliamentarians. It was time, he said for honesty.And he was certainly honest, refreshingly so. In fact, frighteningly so. Like most people, I’ve become used to untruthful politicians, men and women to whom lying comes naturally, automatically.This is especially true for anyone in an official position who is asked to comment on his/her country’s political future, economic prospects or social challenges.Market turmoil, economy in danger? China’s leaders don’t seem to think so. At a conference in Dalian last week, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was adamant that Chinese markets were stable and potential systemic financial risks have been forestalled. Recent troubles were just due to “rumour mongers” and other nasties.India, meanwhile, is talking up its shining economic future and readiness to overtake China despite evidence that the economy is in desperate need of reform and growth.Politicians in the US still brag that their country is a “superpower” despite evidence that no one believes it any more.And at a recent seminar in Brussels, a Pakistani diplomat waxed lyrical about the country’s respectful treatment of women and efforts to empower them while people looked on in disbelief.Of course everybody takes such blatant hyperbole with a huge chunk of salt. We roll our eyes, shut off the TV, shout obscenities at the liars.Which is why Juncker’s speech took many by surprise. Yes, there were some hecklers from the Far Right in the European assembly but mostly the intervention — long and rambling at times — prompted respect for its brutal assessment of 21st century Europe — and Juncker’s recipe for changing things.The Commission chief was especially honest in his references to Europe’s refugee crisis and governments’ response to it.At a time when many EU leaders continue to waiver on Europe’s responsibilities towards the hundreds of thousands of refugees seeking shelter in Europe, Juncker made clear that Europe had a moral obligation to help those fleeing war, terror and oppression.“We Europeans should remember that Europe is a continent where nearly everyone has at one time been a refugee. Our common history has been marked by millions of Europeans fleeing from religious or political persecution from war, dictatorship or oppression,” Juncker underlined.It is a theme that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has dwelt on repeatedly over the last few weeks. Germany’s welcome of refugees may be rooted in its history but it certainly puts other EU leaders — especially in Britain and in Central and Eastern European countries — to shame.And it looks likely that while many countries have more or less grudgingly accepted more newcomers on their territories, Juncker and Merkel’s calls for compulsory quotas for the resettlement of refugees in the 28 countries will continue to run into opposition from Britain, Hungary, the Czech Republic and others.Meanwhile, following a moment of unusual silence, Europe’s Far Right groups have once again found their poisonous voice. The Netherlands’ leading Muslim-hater Geert Wilder has warned that the refugees represent an “Islamic invasion” of Europe.In France, Wilder’s counterpart Marine Le Pen has decided that “99 per cent” of the refugees coming to Europe are men who are making the journey for economic reasons. She made the statement as television images should pictures of joyful children arriving in Germany.Juncker — like Merkel — has warned against distinguishing between Jews, Christians and Muslims, saying there is “no religion, no belief, no philosophy when it comes to refugees”.There were also tough words on Greece and the need for economic reform to bring back confidence in the economy and among Greeks.And he voiced support for a “fair deal for Britain” as the country prepares to hold its referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017.Finally, Juncker urged EU states to be united in trying to shore up Ukraine while also engaging with Russia.EU governments’ response to Euro troubles in Greece and the refugee crisis has indeed spotlighted a disunited, squabbling Europe. Yes, the EU is the world’s most successful — and inspirational — example of deep regional integration, with a single currency shared by 19 countries, and 26 nations agreeing to scrap their national borders through the “Schengen” agreement.But Greece almost brought about the unraveling of the Eurozone. And the mass cross-border movement of refugees is threatening the Schengen pact. On foreign and security policy, divisions among the 28 countries are ever-visible.While the world watches closely and with concern, the EU will have to tread carefully in the coming months to preserve its many achievements and strive for more.

View from Abroad: A new plan to revive 'Granny Europe' (Originally published 29/11/2014 at dawn.com)

Not much gets Europeans excited these days. When challenges emerge — at least on the foreign policy front — the reaction seems to be almost always the same. Problems with Russia? Let’s expand sanctions. Iran? Let’s keep sanctions. Islamic State? Let’s impose sanctions although just how and on whom is not clear.But suddenly, out of the blue, there is a bit of a buzz in the winter air. Europeans woke up on Nov 26 with a new “hero”: European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker who strode on to centre stage to promise peace — or at least jobs — in our time.It was a seminal moment. For Juncker and Europe.The former Luxembourg prime minister is facing allegations that hundreds of multi-national firms were reportedly attracted to Luxembourg in legal tax avoidance schemes. Juncker was prime minister at the time but denies wrongdoing. The new plan has the advantage of taking the almost-scandal off the media radar.For Europe, the plan could be the answer to its dreams of revival. The 28-nation bloc is still struggling to climb out of a long and painful Eurozone crisis. Growth rates are low, unemployment is tragically high, especially among young people. People are downbeat and dejected. Even the German economy is beginning to flag.To top it all, making pessimists even more downbeat, in a speech to the European Parliament last week, Pope Francis likened Europe to a grandmother, “no longer fertile and vibrant”. (I’m not sure he’s talking about the lively grannies I know though…)Anti-granny remarks aside, the pontiff’s remarks do resonate for many. Europe is getting a tad worn out, depressed and haggard. A shot of vitamins is badly needed.Enter Juncker with a magic bullet: a 315 billion euro plan to spend EU money on new infrastructure projects as part of an initiative to revive granny and help Europe grow and thrive again.Only, there is no magic involved. There will be hardly any new money — only €21bn in EU funds as a guarantee to raise private cash in the capital markets — with the rest of the money expected to come from private sources.EU policymakers say they will be looking for funds wherever they can. Chinese investments will be sought out avidly. Middle East investors will be welcome.“I often hear we need so-called fresh money. But we need a fresh start and fresh investment,” Juncker told the European Parliament this week. “We will not betray our children and grandchildren by writing cheques they ultimately will have to pay.”With one eye on developments across the Atlantic, the Commission chief moaned that “While investment is taking off in the US, Europe is lagging behind. Why? Because investors lack confidence, credibility and trust.”The Commission is making up for the lack of solid details on the plan by upping the hype. Juncker says the initiative represents a cornerstone of efforts to revive an ailing economy.Others have called it a historic moment, a make-or-break initiative, a European “New Deal” to get Europeans working again.Certainly, the timing is right. Many European economists have been saying for some time Europe needs to move from the current focus on austerity to programmes which bring back growth.And the best way to do so is to start investing again — especially in infrastructure.The Commission believes it could create up to 1.3 million jobs with investment in broadband, energy networks and transport infrastructure, as well as education and research.National governments could contribute to the fund if they wished and would be asked to come up with a list of projects with “high socio-economic returns” that could kick-off between 2015 and 2017.With a nod to Martin Luther King, Juncker added that he had a dream. He wanted to see schoolchildren walking into a brand new classroom equipped with computers in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, European hospitals saving lives with state of the art medical equipment and French commuters charging electric cars on motorways.The good news is that pro-austerity Germany — the bane of countries like France and Italy which want the EU to start spending itself out of economic stagnation — is in favour of the plan.But EU officials admit the initiative will not fill the gap in the amount of investments needed, especially in infrastructure across Europe. There is also concern that there will not be enough credible projects around for investors to put their money into.The European Investment Bank will be the “prime mover” in delivering seed money for those investments over the next three years. The plan will now be discussed by the 28 EU leaders at the Dec 18-19 summit.Juncker’s shift from austerity and cutting debt to investment is not going to be the botox shot needed to transform “Granny Europe” into a vibrant young woman. But it is a start.