Macron, Merkel and May: Europe is getting very complicated
EUROPE is getting very complicated. And even more confusing than usual. But there’s no doubt that after years of political paralysis and economic stagnation, the continent is on the move again, with no dull moment.
So French President Emmanuel Macron is Europe’s new saviour, Germany’s recently re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel is the trustworthy bearer of the European flame and Theresa May? Well, the British prime minister, in the words of her erstwhile colleague George Osborne, is a “dead woman walking”.
The trio dominate the European landscape for the moment but truth be told, poor May is being edged out of the game by her own rebellious party members and the once-again resurrected Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Macron remains the European superstar. Given his tough reform agenda, the French president may not be popular at home with trade unions and other defenders of the status quo but his star continues to rise across Europe.
The French leader’s plan for an overhaul to make the EU more integrated, more democratic, and more competitive, dominated the headlines last week, overshadowing the fallout of the German elections — including the worrying success of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — and the quivering speech on Brexit made by May in Florence.
Macron in contrast spoke for more than 100 minutes at Paris Sorbonne university, delivering a stirring vision of a refashioned dynamic and vibrant Europe which had Europhiles applauding across the continent. “I don’t have red lines, only horizons,” he said.
The French leader laid out a vision of the EU in 2024 that would be based on “common democratic values” as well as a “simpler, more protective” single market. This EU would include a more integrated eurozone with its own budget managed by a finance minister who would be held responsible by a eurozone parliament.
The European Commission would be reduced to 15 members and half the members of the European Parliament would be elected through trans-national lists as soon as 2019. Macron also proposed a common defence budget, with a “common doctrine” and a “common intervention force” by 2020. He proposed a “European intelligence academy” and a European prosecutor to fight terrorism.
The French president said that the EU should have a common agency to manage asylum requests and centralise interconnected databases and biometric IDs. The EU would have, at the same time, a common policy to train and integrate migrants.
“The only way to ensure our future is to rebuild a sovereign, united and democratic Europe,” he said. And if needed, he said, the EU would evolve at different speeds.
Macron’s speech, coming only two days after Merkel was returned to power in German elections, signals the start of a new wave of European efforts to rebuild the EU after years of difficulties and economic stagnation.
It won’t be easy. Many of Macron’s ideas are seen as too much, too soon. Critics say he is out of touch with the difficult reality of transforming ideas into actions.
Merkel — still seen as Europe’s most trusted leader — will spend the next few weeks trying to build a difficult coalition with the liberals and the Greens.
Her star has been tarnished by the electoral success of the populist AfD, which opposes her decision to welcome refugees and migrants. But Macron said he was sure that Merkel will choose “audacity and the sense of history” rather than “timidity”.
Strikingly for a French president, Macron encouraged young Europeans to speak at least two languages and to live and work in another European country. “The Europe of multilingualism is a chance,” he said.
The French president’s passionate defence of Europe and array of ideas for the future is music to the ears of EU policymakers, who say the bloc is ready for a new spurt of growth.
Earlier this month, European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker also laid out his plans for Europe’s revival — although many of his ideas were immediately trashed as too ambitious by several European leaders.
But even as they squabble over just how to move forward, most EU leaders agree that the bloc’s new upbeat mood means it’s time to make some important changes in decision-making procedures and to set out more ambitious targets.
And one of the reasons for the burst of energy is Brexit. Much to the chagrin of many Brexiteers, far from drowning in tears at Britain’s imminent departure, the EU27 appear to be in celebratory mood.
Nightmare scenarios under which other EU status would seek to emulate Britain by also demanding a Euro divorce have proven to be little more than scare-mongering. If anything all talk of other “exits” has disappeared.
In fact, Brexit and the arrival of US President Donald Trump have given added energy to the EU.
In any case, May’s future looks increasingly grim. Squabbles among key members of her cabinet dominate the headlines while newspapers have begun to talk of Labour leader Corbyn as Britain’s next prime minister.
Interestingly, even as Britain’s media appears increasingly obsessed by the infighting in May’s cabinet and the details of Brexit, their counterparts on the continent hardly seem to care about the future of British democracy. Britain has very sadly written itself out of the EU’s future. And neither Macron nor Merkel seem to care. Really, they don’t.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, September 30th, 2017
German elections mean populists are here to stay - but so are the immigrants
After she has completed the painstaking task of forging a new ruling coalition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel must join forces with other European leaders to tackle the re-awakened demons of Far Right populism.The success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the much-watched German polls is a sobering reminder of the power still wielded by Europe’s populists and the abiding attraction of their simple and unabashedly anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-EU message.True, Mark Rutte in the Netherlands and France’s Emmanuel Macron managed to ward off the Far Right threat in milestone elections earlier this year. The increasingly erratic performance of US President Donald Trump – a hero for most European Far Right populists – and the post-Brexit chaos in Britain has further dimmed the allure of Europe’s populists. But the battle has not been won.Europe’s mainstream politicians will be further tested in legislative elections in Austria on October 15. Stridently xenophobic and anti-immigrant slogans continue to dominate the government discourse in Hungary and Poland. With the AfD becoming the first Far Right party to enter the Bundestag in more than half a century, there is little doubt that Europe’s Far Right populists, aided by powerful domestic and foreign backers, are part and parcel of the continent’s political landscape.
European politicians should become bolder in tackling the populists’ racist agenda
The populist parties may be here to stay but so are the immigrants.If they are to contain – and even diminish – the power and attraction of the Far Right, European leaders must steer clear of embracing – and thereby amplifying – the populists’ xenophobic rhetoric. Instead they should take the more courageous route of speaking out in favour of more inclusive and diverse societies, the approach successfully adopted by French President Emmanuel Macron.It’s time to go further. European politicians should become bolder in tackling the populists’ racist agenda. Given the toxic and corrosive nature of the current debate, developing a fresh and credible European narrative on immigration – a “heroic story” – will not be easy. Here are six suggestions:First, use the coming months to hammer out a new and convincing policy, based on rules and obligations, which looks beyond the current migration “crisis” to creating more effective, intelligent and realistic legal pathways for migrants seeking to live and work in Europe.While many people, businesses and non-governmental organizations have been welcoming and compassionate in their response to refugees and migrants seeking shelter in Europe, governments’ often messy and erratic response has led to confusion and panic. A balanced and effective migration management policy will require the opening of legal pathways to migrants, rights-based partnerships with countries of origin and transit and more development assistance, trade and jobs as well as education-centred policies for countries in Africa.Second, speak truth to the public. While open-door Europe was a necessary humanitarian response at a difficult time, it is not a medium-term option. But neither is Fortress Europe. Immigration is a global phenomenon and a fact of life. People will continue to move across borders in search of jobs but also to escape war, famine and environmental degradation. Europe will remain an attractive destination.Third, for all the fire and fury directed at migrants by the Far Right, ageing Europe needs the talent, skills, energy and youth of migrants, both skilled and unskilled. Countries that accept immigrants (like Canada) are thriving. Migrants are needed to pay the pensions for the elderly, work in hospitals and schools and perform a million other tasks in a growing 21st Century economy.
The populist parties may be here to stay but so are the immigrants
Fourth, confront the conventional anti-Islam clichés by showing respect and being inclusive of Europe’s Muslim minorities. Far from being terrorists and criminals, “the vast majority of Muslims in the EU have a high sense of trust in democratic institutions despite experiencing widespread discrimination and harassment,” according to a recent report by the European Fundamental Rights Agency.Fifth, while making new policies, do respond to the fears and anxieties of those who fear being submerged by alien cultures and traditions but also remember that the majority of Europeans are open and tolerant and distressed by the Far Right’s diatribes. Europe has always been and will always be resilient enough to cope with change and diversity.Sixth, practice what you preach. European governments and European Union institutions have been woefully slow in recruiting ethnic minorities into their ranks. There was a golden opportunity to turn this around earlier this year when the Commission published a new “Diversity and Inclusion Charter”. But sadly the document’s goal to create “a better workplace for all” does not mention ethnic minorities. European Parliament elections in 2019 can and should correct this error by adopting more inclusive policies.Finally, instead of being wrong-footed by the Far Right, Europe’s leaders need to celebrate their Union’s diversity. In an increasingly competitive and globalised world, Europe’s future depends not on pandering to nostalgic nativists but on mobilising the energy, talents and skills of all Europeans.Shada Islam
Who cares about Brexit now that the EU27 have ‘wind in the sails’?
AS snubs go, this was a resounding one. Setting out his vision of a strong, successful and even more integrated European Union to the European Parliament last week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker waited until the almost-end of his long speech to make a brief mention of Britain’s departure from the EU on March 29, 2019 as a “sad and tragic moment”.
Europe was not made to stand still. So the really significant event was not Brexit but the day after, he proclaimed, when “we will be a Union of 27”.
There will be a special EU summit organised in Romania on March 30, 2019 to mark Europe’s changed membership and, as Juncker put it, “the moment we come together to take decisions needed for a more united, stronger and democratic Europe.”
And what will this re-energised Europe “with the wind in its sails” look like?
Juncker was not short on optimistic ideas: it will be a place “where we all stand by our values. Where all member states firmly respect the rule of law. Where being a full member of the euro area, the banking union and the Schengen area has become the norm for all EU member states. Where we have shored up the foundations of our economic and monetary union so that we can defend our single currency in good times and bad…where our single market will be fairer towards workers from the East and from the West…where terrorists have no loopholes to exploit”.
Also, “where we have agreed on a proper European Defence Union. Where a single president leads the work of the Commission and the European Council, having been elected after a democratic Europe-wide election campaign”.
The Commission chief’s agenda for the remaining two years of his presidency is breathless — and breathtaking. The long address had important messages for friends and foes, admirers and critics, for Europeans and those watching Europe from the outside. Here are some key points:
First, that Juncker and the Commission are back — with a bang. Member states, led by Germany and France, have taken the lead in recent years, with the EU executive body being sidelined and overlooked. With Berlin and Paris coming out with new ideas for Europe’s future, the Commission chief has made clear that he and the institution he heads are back in the EU driving seat. Or at least sitting (very close) next to the driver(s).
Not surprisingly, many EU leaders have balked at his calls for further integration by proposing the appointment of one “EU president” who combines the jobs of the current president of the European Commission and his counterpart who heads the European Council. For eurozone members, Juncker proposed a “European Minister of Economy and Finance” who would chair the Eurogroup while also being Commission vice president and work to promote structural reform in member states.
For EU citizens, Juncker promised more efforts to prevent cyberattacks through the creation of a European Cybersecurity Agency, continuing efforts to stem the flow of illegal migrants, an emphasis on returning those who have no right to protection, more sharing of intelligence to stop terror attacks by setting up a European intelligence unit — and also opening up “legal pathways” for migrants.
There were other messages too. US President Donald Trump wasn’t mentioned by name — in fact there was no reference to the “transatlantic alliance” — but Juncker’s message to the US president can be paraphrased thus: you may be doing your best to destroy US democracy, but Europe isn’t impressed. In fact, said Juncker: “three principles must always anchor our Union: freedom, equality and the rule of law”. And oh yes, President Trump, while you may believe in the law of the strong, in Europe it’s about “the strength of the law”.
China’s President Xi Jinping wasn’t mentioned by name either, but the Chinese leader knows that Juncker’s proposal for a new EU framework for investment screening is aimed at ensuring that key sectors — energy infrastructure, ports and defence technology — aren’t allowed to fall into Chinese hands. “Europe must always defend its strategic interests…we are not naïve free traders,” said Jucker.
Turkey was mentioned and told that it could put its hopes for joining the EU in the freezer “for the foreseeable future”. No matter that Ankara was helping to stem the flow of Middle East refugees coming to Europe, Turkey was “taking giant strides away from the EU for some time”. And there would be no further EU enlargement to include the Western Balkans either at least until 2019. But “thereafter the EU will be greater than 27 in number”.
But the strongest message was for Britain’s fervent Brexiteers. As the beleaguered British Prime Minister Theresa May gets ready to make her much-heralded speech on Britain’s future relations with the EU on September 21, Juncker couldn’t have been clearer: it’s been a barrel of laughs but it’s time to go. So long and take care.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, September 16th, 2017
As EU emerges from ‘valley of tears’, there’s new hope but also challenges
BY now everyone knows: 2016 was the European Union’s “annus horibilus”, the year of living dangerously and on the edge. The year of “polycrises” and much lamenting on how the bloc was drifting towards oblivion, irrelevance and perhaps even dissolution.
Brexit was a body blow to the EU’s self-confidence. Toxic populist politicians dominated the political conversation. Migrants continued to arrive in waves, triggering a wedge between a (relatively) welcoming Western Europe and Poland, Hungary and Slovakia who built fences to keep the unwanted out.
The arrival in the White House of President Donald Trump with his visceral dislike of all things multilateral, including the EU, led to much moaning about the demise of the liberal Western-led liberal order.
Seriously, as Trump would tweet, it was bad. And sad.
But guess what? While America struggles to make sense of the president it elected, Europe is back — and it’s looking good, at least for now.
The repugnant Geert Wilders and equally repellent Marine Le Pen did not secure the votes they needed to hijack democracy in the Netherlands and France respectively.
The Netherlands caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte is still trying to set up a new government following elections on March 15. In France, the reformist, liberal and pro-EU Emmanuel Macron is president.
And although there are German elections later this month, most Europeans admit that the polls are unexciting.
Both candidates — incumbent German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Social Democrat contender Martin Shultz — are stalwart pro-Europeans. So even if Merkel is defeated (unlikely given the current opinion polls), Germany will not veer off the EU trajectory.
Small wonder then that EU policymakers say with a sigh of relief: “We are out of the ‘valley of tears’.”
Indeed. It’s time to stop weeping, to hammer home Europe’s resilience. To tell Europeans that they are not as vulnerable, weak and fragile as the populists would have them believe.
It’s time to spotlight, the EU’s achievements and strengths and to promise to tackle its weaknesses. It’s time for a sober pat on the back, not yet time for a full-fledged celebration.
So what does the EU — EU27 without Britain — have to do to make this temporary reprieve into a permanent peace? Here are some very subjective suggestions:
Stay calm in the midst of all horrible noise, fury and bluster. It’s a noisy and distracting world, crisis-ridden, moth-eaten and getting louder by the day. If it isn’t Trump tweeting, it’s frothing and fuming over Brexit that dominate our lives. Like it or not, the EU is the adult in the room. And the authority it exerts now comes from quiet self-assurance, peacefulness and grace under fire. Let it stay this way.
Change with the times. It’s no use hankering after “US leadership” or the “good old days” when the West ruled the world. That post-World War order is over, forever. It won’t come back after four years or even eight years of Trump. The world is moving on, quickly. The EU should use the coming years to forge its own global identity, move out of America’s shadow and build new strategic friendships — and reenergise existing ones — with the new kids on the bloc, including China and India.
Even as they rejoice in Europe’s rebirth, EU policymakers should be careful not to come across as complacent and arrogant. The populist threat in Europe has not disappeared. The East-West split over refugees, values and freedom of expression is serious and dangerous. Brexit will be a drain on energy and resources. The current peace is not permanent.
Start getting serious about tackling the many challenges in its neighbourhood. It’s fine to criticise and slap sanctions on Russia and Turkey — and to put off further enlargement with the Western Balkans states — but current tensions cannot go on. Like it or not, the EU has to keep engaged with the “bad hombres” who lead some of these countries. And even if it puts relations on hold with governments in the region, there must be no suspension of help and support for long-suffering people.
Avoid creating Fortress Europe. The EU has welcomed thousands of refugees and migrants in recent months and has kept its doors open despite the populists, internal divisions and a nagging press. While the number of people seeking to enter Europe may have gone down, young men and women looking to escape war or find a better life will continue to come to Europe. It’s important to start a serious rethink of EU immigration policy, especially in view of Africa’s growing populations and Europe’s shrinking and ageing one.
Keep Europe open for business. Interestingly, while the US withdraws from trade deals and contemplates new ways of protecting domestic producers, the EU has been seeking out new trade deals with an array of partners. The recent EU-Japan political deal on a free trade agreement has sent the right message on Europe’s desire to keep its markets open. It would be a pity if that message of openness was overshadowed by stringent new EU moves to keep out investments — including those from China.
The short list above is not comprehensive. The months ahead will be dominated by talk of serious reform and change, including in the functioning of the eurozone, and the speed of future integration.
While leaders try and pick up the gauntlet on the big issues of the day, important messages on at least some of the suggestions above would be useful.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, September 9th, 2017
Brexit is loud, noisy and probably pointless
IT’S a noisy world — and it’s driving all of us just a tad crazy. How else to explain the chaos, confusion and lawlessness which blights much of the world?
Just listen: radios and TV sets blaring, people who can’t stop shouting, at home, on the street or in offices. Mobile phones going beep, beep, honking cars, thunderous lorries, airplanes flying overhead.
TV anchors shouting at you, reporters shrieking, talking-heads and “pundits” clamouring for airtime. And of course, the bullets, bombs and crying babies. The pleas for help that no one hears because their cries are drowned out by all that noise.
Even the written word has become loud and shrill. For proof, look no further than the tweets by US President Donald Trump with their exclamation marks and capital letters. All that anger and fury, all that hate. The insults and lies jump out at you from the screen, their venom startling and scaring even the bravest and most resilient.
In this noise and clamour, it’s easy to get distracted, to lose a sense of what’s right and what’s wrong, to stop setting priorities, to fight and to blindly follow unscrupulous politicians whose deafening speeches only help to fan the fires of fanaticism.
Returning to work after the summer break, I’m stunned by the sound and fury of our complex, complicated and chaotic world. And this constant and unrelenting noise, I’m convinced, is wreaking absolute havoc with our characters, making us more callous, intolerant and uncaring.
My theory would help explain the current madness in Washington. It’s difficult to stay on the straight and narrow when policy is being made through shrill tweets and full-throated bellows and rants. Who can think amid all that noise?
Here in Brussels, it’s relatively calmer. Or at least it has been. But as Britain starts talking to the EU27 about its impending divorce, the noise being generated by the Brexit negotiations is threatening to become overpowering.
The Brexit talks were always going to be difficult but judging by the way they are proceeding, no quick and happy end is in sight.
The talks have only being going on for a few weeks — they started on June 19 — but Brexit negotiations have already turned into a loud and noisy “he said, she said” argument.
EU officials are clearly frustrated at what they view as Britain’s lack of preparedness for the talks. Just recently, EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker blasted Britain’s failure to answer “huge numbers of questions” on its Brexit plans.
Juncker has scoffed openly at a series of British negotiating papers published over the summer which Prime Minister Theresa May’s government claims were proof that London was responding seriously to the detailed proposals agreed by the EU27.
The commission chief was scathing: “I would like to be clear that I did read with the requisite attention all the papers produced by Her Majesty’s government; I find none of them truly satisfactory…so there are huge numbers of questions that need to be settled.”
These included issues of rights for EU citizens in Britain and Britons in Europe after Brexit and the EU-UK border that will stretch across the island of Ireland, he said.
“We need to be crystal clear that we will begin no negotiations on the new economic and trade relationship between the UK and the EU before all these questions are resolved ... that is the divorce between the EU and the UK,” Juncker said.
Unfortunately, the latest round of talks in Brussels last week do not appear to have cleared the air, with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, saying there had been no progress on major issues and warning that time would run out to reach an orderly withdrawal.
All of this has of course provoked a noisy response from Brexiteers who accuse the EU of being inflexible and much too rigid, with Barnier’s stance being criticised as being “ill-judged and unhelpful”. Barnier told reporters, however, that he can’t accede to UK demands to be “flexible” until he knows what Britain wants.
To make matters even more acrimonious, Brexit enthusiasts went totally ballistic last Friday when former British prime minister and EU-enthusiast Tony Blair came calling on his friend Juncker.
The commission described the meeting as a regular chat between “good friends and former colleagues”. But British tabloids screamed unfair, warning that the former British PM was seeking — single-handedly — to derail the talks and keep Britain in the bloc.
Finally, just as conspiracy theories broke through the sound barrier and the din became unbearable, the current British PM May — described by her former colleague George Osborne as a “dead woman walking” because of her grim performance in recent British elections — chipped in to say she had no intention of quitting and planned to lead the Tories into elections in 2022.
As I’ve often said in recent months, politics in 2017 have become brutal, volatile and unpredictable. They have also become incredibly noisy. So let’s try and make a collective effort to turn down the volume and enjoy a bit of silence. Who knows, by doing so, we may even be able to find peace amid the quietness?
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2017
Happiness: the real divide between nations
I DON’T know about you but much of the world today seems to be angry, unhappy and fearful. Insults and offensive language are common currency. Lies and “alternative facts” abound. No one says “sorry” anymore. To do so, would be to confess to being a “softie” in a world which is only impressed by tough men and mean women.
So it’s reassuring to learn that contrary to my grim view of the world, there are entire countries which can be described as “happy”. According to the World Happiness Report 2017, Nordic countries are the happiest while Africans and some Asians are mostly miserable.
The answer for the divide is simple: all of the top 10 countries have high values in all six of the key variables used to explain happiness differences among countries and through time — income, healthy life expectancy, having someone to count on in times of trouble, generosity, freedom and trust, with the latter measured by the absence of corruption in business and government.
I re-read the report just before going on vacation. Its holiday time and most of Europe — including this correspondent — will be taking a well-deserved vacation, coming back refreshed and reinvigorated and ready to tackle the world, once again.
That’s the theory. That’s what we talk about in Brussels these days: the burn out, the exhaustion, the “I can’t stand this world anymore” laments from friends and foes.
So the plan is to forget about US President Donald Trump and his crazy tweets, his creepy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his weird plastic-coated children for a few weeks.
To stop obsessing over Brexit and the fate of a now-small country once known as “Great” Britain.
And to take our minds off the wars in the Middle East, the danger emanating from North Korea and the corruption scandals in most corners of the world.
As I said: that’s the theory. The problem is that it just isn’t going to happen. In this world of constant news, non-stop social media and instant messaging, very few people are going to be able to really turn off.
And this means that come September, we will all probably be as tired and nervous as we are today. We will probably not be very happy.
The World Happiness Report says it doesn’t have to be so bad. Yes, we can be happy. But only if the right policies are in place.
The report’s key message is that trust and equality are the key to building happy societies and nurturing people who are joyful in their skins.
“Happy countries are the ones that have a healthy balance of prosperity, as conventionally measured, and social capital, meaning a high degree of trust in a society, low inequality and confidence in government,” according to Jeffrey Sachs, the director of the Sustainable Developments Solution Network which publishes the report and a special adviser to the United Nations Secretary General.
The aim of the report, he added, is to provide another tool for governments, business and civil society to help their countries find a better way to well-being.
The big headlines are about the fact that Norway has displaced Denmark as the world’s happiest country. But that should not be such a cause for concern because Nordic nations overall are the most content in the world.
Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland, Finland, Netherlands, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Sweden are identified as the top 10 countries.
South Sudan, Liberia, Guinea, Togo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi and the Central African Republic are at the bottom.
Germany was ranked 16, followed by the United Kingdom (19) and France (31). The US dropped one spot to 14 because of anxiety caused by the erratic policies of Trump. Nations such as China (79), Pakistan (80), Nepal (99), Bangladesh (110), Iraq (117) and Sri Lanka (120) fared better than India, which was ranked on the 122nd spot. Interestingly, the report also points out that people in China are no happier than 25 years ago when the country was much poorer.
The rankings are based on six factors — per capita gross domestic product, healthy life expectancy, freedom, generosity, social support and absence of corruption in government or business.
All of the top four countries rank highly on all the main factors found to support happiness: caring, freedom, generosity, honesty, health, income and good governance.
The report is meant to encourage governments to put in place policies which make people happy. Some countries have already appointed a “Minister for Happiness” to make sure this happens.
Imagine a world where instead of engaging in war and conflict, nations competed with each other on which one had the happiest citizens.
And on this upbeat note, it’s au revoir and so long for a few weeks.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, July 22nd, 2017
It’s a crazy world — get used to it
SOMETIMES a conference, a picture or even a tweet captures just perfectly the state of the world. For historians studying the 21st Century, the 2017 Group of 20 summit held in Hamburg this week will undoubtedly be remembered as having showcased just how quickly the world has indeed changed in the last six months.
Here are some rapid-fire key new trends:
The United States under President Donald Trump has abdicated its long-standing role as leader of the free world, the defender of liberal democracies and the promoter of a multilateral rules-based system. True, the US was on a path of retreat from the global stage under Barack Obama but the myth of the “indispensable nation” remained strong. As he turns his back on free trade, withdraws from the climate change accord and rages, rants and tweets against adversaries, migrants and Muslims, Trump has made clear that his “America First” policies are not just campaign stunts, but real policies with an impact both at home and abroad.
As the US turns inwards, the spotlight is on Europe as the standard-bearer of the liberal order. It’s a task that some in Europe are dying to take on. EU leaders make no secret of their readiness to defend free trade, stand by international agreements and forge new partnerships to ensure peace and stability in the Trump era. In a clear riposte to Trump’s anti-free trade stance, the EU and Japan signed a major new free trade agreement just ahead of the G20 summit, with both sides making clear the deal was meant as a signal of their commitment to fight protectionism. According to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, “It is a strong message to the world.”
Within Europe, it’s Germany, host of the G20 summit, which is being watched the most closely as the bloc’s undisputed leader. German Chancellor Angela Merkel may demur at being called “leader of the free world” — but for many she is the best candidate for the job, especially since Berlin can now count on working with Paris under President Emmanuel Macron to strengthen European unity.
But Europe has significant fault lines of its own. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are in open conflict with their EU partners over their harsh treatment of refugees and asylum seekers and restrictions on press freedom. The split between small and big EU members was in evidence last week as European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called European lawmakers “ridiculous” for failing to turn up to an address by Malta’s prime minister, saying they should show more respect for smaller members of the bloc.
Juncker, himself from the small Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, was visibly annoyed as he watched the proceedings in the near empty parliamentary chamber in Strasbourg.
Outside Europe, all eyes are on China and President Xi Jinping whose public declarations of support for the climate change accord and strong pro-free trade stance have won him kudos in Europe. China’s multi-trillion dollar visionary Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with its vast connectivity networks across continents has also captured the world’s imagination. Not surprisingly, the Chinese leader was quite the hero at the G20 summit. But Beijing still has to deliver on opening up its own markets to foreign exports and investments and is under pressure to tame North Korea.
Despite continuing talk in Britain of its global ambitions, last year’s Brexiteer slogans of “Global Britain” and “taking back control” are beginning to sound tired and tedious. Contrary to what the politicians and others favouring a so-called “hard Brexit” may believe, Britain today is actually a diminished power, not a “strong and stable” one. As such, Prime Minister Theresa May — widely seen as a caretaker leader — made little impact at the Hamburg gathering.
While Europe defends the liberal system, Trump will find friends in Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who have more in common with the US leader than anyone in Western Europe. The Germany Chancellor has warned, however, that “anyone who thinks that they can solve the problems of this world with isolationism and protectionism is making an enormous mistake.”
Merkel insists that G20 leaders can and should send a message of determination as regards their great responsibility for the world and the need for international cooperation.
Unfortunately, the meeting — and others like it in the coming months — is expected to do the exact opposite by illustrating the divisions, discord and acrimony among some of the world’s leading nations. The message from Hamburg is quite simple: it’s a crazy world. Get used to it.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Rivalry, resilience and resistance: the new normal of a changed world
It’s difficult to discern patterns of conduct in this rollercoaster world. Still, halfway through 2017 is a good a time as any to try and capture some vibes – however fleeting – of a world in flux.Geopolitical competition and rivalry – among nations, people, banks, businesses and just about everyone else – continues to tear us apart. But, there is also a new resilience in the system and in people. Shocks happen, we are shaken – and then we bounce back. And if we don’t like what is happening, we make sure our voices are heard and bad policies are resisted.First, rivalry. There is nothing new about bitter rivalry and tensions over competing territorial claims, including in the South China Sea or in the Middle East, which continues to be a battleground between competing states, factions within states, and religious groups. Ongoing economic and political rivalry among the ‘Great Powers’, America and China, or indeed between Russia and the West, remain in the headlines.But even as they compete with and challenge each other, intelligent rivals and competitors are trying to work together, bilaterally or through multilateral conventions, to avoid open conflict. This is the case of the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China, which are trying to negotiate a code of conduct to manage conflicting claims in the South China Sea. India and Pakistan are more or less managing their chronically acrimonious relationship.
“The EU has made resilience-building a key component of its foreign and security policy”
But in the conflict-racked Middle East the Saudi-led boycott of Qatar has ratcheted up long-entrenched intra-Arab rivalries and divisions between Shia and Sunni Muslims. How America and China manage their rivalry concerns a watching world.Second, resilience is the real buzzword for a 21st-century world that is constantly shaken by destabilising rapid-fire shocks. Not surprisingly, handling disruptive pressures and shocks has become the new normal across the world.Development experts are trying to build resilient societies in fragile nations, disaster specialists want resilience built into national policies to reduce disaster risks, and people across the world, including in Europe, are showing commendable resilience even as they face terrorism and devastating violence.Resilience in the face of man-made disaster was in full view after the Grenfell Tower fire in London as people came together to offer succour and support to victims.Resilience, courage and stamina are also the name of the game for refugees and migrants as they embark on perilous journeys to seek shelter and better lives. And many countries and cities in Europe are opening their arms to the newcomers, confident and proud of their societies’ resilience.The EU has made resilience-building a key component of its foreign and security policy, saying it’s time to move from crisis containment to a more structural and long-term approach to global challenges.
“Shocks happen, we are shaken – and then we bounce back”
A similar strategy, with an emphasis on anticipation, prevention and preparedness, needs to be followed at home. The EU has in fact shown remarkable strength and resilience in the face of the populist threat that only a few months seemed about to engulfing parts of the bloc.Despite being shaken by Brexit and the venomous campaigns led by populists in France and the Netherlands, anti-EU forces have been put on the back foot in those two countries as well as in Austria and Germany. In Britain, the electorate appears to have voted against a harsh divorce from the EU.Which brings us to ‘resistance’, whether it’s in the US, where courts, journalists and women are putting up a strong (and often successful) fight against some of the craziest actions and policies of the American President, or in Egypt, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and other states where courageous men and women are standing up for their rights in the face of detention and worse.For many, the new French President Emmanuel Macron embodies the resilience of a confident new Europe. But beware of complacency. Europe’s East-West divisions continue to fester. Many will resist the reform and change that are needed to embed the European bounce-back.But even if it’s just for a moment, let’s acknowledge, consolidate and celebrate Europe’s unexpected revival and resilience.
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Six lessons from Europe’s bounce-back
Remember when soap-opera politics used to be the preserve of what was contemptuously described as the ‘third world’? No longer. The topsy-turvy world of Western politics is providing an even more interesting spectacle to a watching world.For proof, look no further than recent unpredictable developments in Washington, London and Paris.US President Donald Trump remains mired in a bitter battle with the ousted head of the FBI, James Comey, over alleged ties between Russia and the Trump administration.In London, a discredited and weakened Prime Minister Theresa May is clinging on to power despite having failed miserably to win the massive parliamentary majority she expected to help her engineer a hard Brexit.And in France, the ‘revolution’ sparked by Emmanuel Macron continues as the French President’s La République En Marche party looks set to dominate the National Assembly.These and other changes in three key Western democracies have obvious and important repercussions for their own citizens – but they also impact strongly on Europe and the world.
“The topsy-turvy world of Western politics is providing an even more interesting spectacle”
Here are some quick and easy lessons to keep in mind as we navigate new and sometimes choppy waters.First, after almost a year of talking down Europe it’s time to be upbeat about the future. The energy generated by the French elections should be quickly channelled into serious discussions about giving shape to the European bounce-back through change and reform.Second, even as we mourn America and Britain’s slow slide into irrelevance let’s seize the moment to make Europe matter even more on the global stage on key issues like global governance, security and climate change. In a quick-moving world, nobody is stopping for America. And as Global Britain behaves more like ‘little England’, it inspires little respect.Third, let’s celebrate the power and political nous of young Europeans and ‘citizens of the world’, including ethnic minorities, who turned out in huge numbers to vote in the British elections, giving a bloody nose to the ruling Conservative Party in the process. Macron’s success is also proof that building a new and more vibrant Europe is about reaching out to all citizens, regardless for age, colour or faith.Fourth, it is possible to defeat populists and populism – but only if the politicians who take them on are authentic, passionate, social media-savvy and strong enough to fight fire with fire. Europe needs a new narrative based on openness, inclusion and compassion. Both France and Britain have shown that there is limited appetite among voters for racists and hate-mongers. Let’s keep that in mind, especially ahead of the 2019 elections to the European Parliament.Fifth, the EU’s political muscle-building is being paralleled by significant shifts in Britain. There’s an undeniable shift in the UK government’s approach to Brexit, with its previous stance on a ‘hard Brexit’ due to be significantly softened. The upshot of the election is that the House of Commons is back in control.
“The politicians taking the populists on need to be authentic, passionate, social media-savvy and strong enough to fight fire with fire”
Robbed of a majority, the Tories’ hard Brexiteer ministers will have to submit all the necessary enabling legislation to parliamentary scrutiny and approval. Somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters of the MPs are reckoned to be anti-Brexit, but were cowed into silence by the referendum result.Sixth, the pro-EU membership Tory and Labour MPs will no doubt gain in confidence and assertiveness once the Brexit negotiations get under way next week. Mrs May’s battle cry of “no deal is better than a bad deal” has already been abandoned, and the growing likelihood is that David Davis, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, will be forced by circumstances to acknowledge that Britain should stay in the single market.That would mean accepting the EU’s four freedoms of movement – for capital, goods, services, and crucially labour – leaving voters in a possible second referendum to ponder the question of what Brexit is really all about.Although it’s probably a stretch to ascribe the British electorate’s negative verdict on May’s appeal for a stronger Brexit mandate to shifts elsewhere in Europe, French voters’ massive rejection of populism by electing Macron to the presidency and giving him a landslide parliamentary majority has certainly been echoed in Britain.If populism can best be described as the triumph of dangerously simplistic and short-sighted solutions to complex long-term problems, then the populists are being routed on both sides of the English Channel.
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Summertime signals warmer EU-Asia ties
Perhaps it’s down to global uncertainties sparked by US President Donald Trump’s volatile policies. Perhaps it’s the result of the European Union’s new Brexit-inspired sense of urgency and purpose. Or perhaps George Gershwin is right – and summertime just makes living easy. Whatever the reasons, Asia and Europe are finally starting a serious and strategic conversation on shared global challenges.Europeans were active participants at the Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing earlier this month. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum and celebrations of ASEAN’s 50th anniversary in Manila in August. European and Asian senior officials are meeting in June in Brussels ahead of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) foreign ministers encounter in Myanmar in November. There will be a gathering of ASEM economic ministers in Seoul in September, the first such meeting in many years.It’s not just the frequency of these and other encounters that is significant. Meetings between Asian and European leaders, ministers, policymakers and business representatives take place often enough. But they have habitually been much too formal, and in some cases little more than photo opportunities.Although important challenges still lie ahead – and regretfully EU relations with India and Pakistan have yet to truly take off – Asia and Europe are slowly but surely expanding the scope and deepening the substance of their conversation.
“Maintaining the new momentum in Europe’s ties with Asia’s leading nations will continue to require hard work, clear-headed strategic thinking and a spirit of compromise”
Significantly, the EU’s Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström, is working hard to get trade deals finalised with Japan and several ASEAN countries. Talks on a region-to-region free trade agreement with ASEAN look set to be revived.Trump’s lack of commitment on issues such as global security, trade and climate change is one key reason for closer dialogue and contact between Asia and Europe which equally depend on and defend the rules-based multilateral global order.The increasingly volatile international outlook also certainly demands stronger Asia-Europe cooperation. Whether it’s North Korea’s erratic nuclear conduct or violence in Syria, Asians and Europeans are equally concerned by the worsening global security situation and its impact on their own stability.Refugees, terrorism and violent extremism, as well as cybersecurity threats, test both Asia and Europe. Tensions in the South China Sea worry Europe, which depends on those sea lanes for a large percentage of its trade.Asians are concerned about the impact of Brexit on their investments in Britain and their economic ties with the EU-27. Both regions face the challenges posed by populists, rising inequalities, and meeting the aspirations of young people for jobs and a better life amid rapid technological transformations. Human rights in many Asian countries continue to be a source of major concern.As illustrated by their interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the ASEAN Connectivity Master Plan and similar discussions within ASEM, both Asia and Europe give priority to forging stronger links between countries and regions, encompassing infrastructure, digital networks and people-to-people ties.This new EU-Asia relationship is evident in four recent developments.
“Future relations would get a boost if there is a quick ASEAN decision to open the doors of the East Asia Summit to the EU”
First, compelling new global realities are giving a new lease of life to ASEM. With its informal format and flexible structure, this forum offers a unique platform for an open, no-holds-barred brainstorm on all issues of mutual interest.Second, EU relations with ASEAN are also advancing, as shown by Mogherini’s trip to Manila. Future relations would get a boost if there is a quick ASEAN decision to open the doors of the East Asia Summit to the EU.Third, although trade relations between Beijing and Brussels remain strained, the BRI has the potential to spark a more ambitious and truly strategic EU-China conversation on crucial issues of global peace, security and economic governance. As EU leaders prepare to meet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang for the 19th EU-China Summit in Brussels on 1-2 June, the EU should widen its view of BRI, seeing it as not merely as an economic ‘project’ but as a reflection of Beijing’s ambitious vision of its role in a rapidly-transforming world.And fourth, EU-Japan relations look set for an enormous geo-economic boost following the imminent conclusion of an ambitious comprehensive economic partnership agreement.Maintaining the new momentum in Europe’s ties with Asia’s leading nations will continue to require hard work, clear-headed strategic thinking and a spirit of compromise. Expectations will also have to be managed.So let’s enjoy the summer and warmer EU-Asia ties – but make these relationships resilient enough to face possible storms and cold weather ahead.
View from Abroad: EU’s female defence ministers kick-start bloc’s hard power
LONG known for its “soft power”, the European Union is finally getting serious about upping it’s “hard power” defence and security credentials. And while the plans are still relatively modest in scope and content — there’s not going to be a European army any time soon — the bloc is moving forward with more determination than many anticipated.
Interestingly for those who, like this correspondent, keep a watch on such developments, the latest constellation of EU defence ministers includes five trailblazing women who could finally get long-standing plans for a European defence union off the ground.
It’s a historic shift in a world long dominated by male defence chiefs. Even in Europe where women have made more inroads into political life than in many other regions, men have dominated the world of guns and tanks. But no longer.
Until 2002, Finland was the only EU country to have had a female defence minister (twice). Last week’s meeting, on the other hand, was attended by Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen, France’s Sylvie Goulard, Italy’s Roberta Pinotti, Spain’s María Dolores de Cospedal, the Netherlands’ Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and EU’s “high representative” for foreign and security policy Federica Mogherini.
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The spotlight is especially strong on Goulard, a member of the European Parliament, who like the new French President Emmanuel Macron is an ardent pro-European politician.
The appointment signals Macron’s determination to work towards greater European defence integration. A close ally of Macron who speaks four languages, Goulard is respected in Brussels as a straight talker, having acted as adviser to former European Commission president Romano Prodi.
The new EU focus on security is not surprising. European governments which are also members of Nato are under intense pressure from the US to increase defence spending to the UN target of two per cent of GDP.
Some like Germany have baulked at the US criticism but many others agree that the bloc must spend more on defence to ensure its own security and to be taken more seriously by a watching world.
Dependence on the US-led Nato alliance also makes the EU a permanent junior partner in other aspects of the transatlantic relationship, according to some EU policymakers.
Although he is scheduled to attend the upcoming Nato summit, US President Donald Trump’s on-off trades against Nato have added to Europe’s unease about excessive reliance on the organisation.
Difficult relations with Moscow have further bolstered the EU defence drive as has the need to cooperate more effectively and efficiently on counterterrorism operations. In addition, opinion polls show European public favouring more intra-European security cooperation.
Ironically, the imminent departure of Britain from the EU has also given a boost to the plans. France and Britain are the two European nations with the most military clout.
But, led by France and Germany, the EU has in fact identified defence cooperation as a key area for rebooting the crisis-hit bloc after Britain’s traumatic vote to leave.
“This is one of the fields where European Union integration is advancing the most,” Mogherini said after EU defence ministers met in Malta recently. “Now with crises all around, we hear from our partners, starting from the UN ... that a rapid reaction force from the EU would be needed to be deployed in some crisis areas,” she said.
Britain, nuclear armed and with a permanent veto at the United Nations, long opposed such efforts, fearing the creation of a “European army” commanded from Brussels. But Brexit has taken Britain out of the equation.
In March, defence and foreign ministers approved Mogherini’s plans for an embryonic military headquarters to coordinate EU overseas security operations, and military training missions in countries such as Somalia and Mali.
In other decisions, the EU has agreed to strengthen security cooperation with partner countries, with the aim to adopt more strategic Common and Security Defence Policy (CSDP) partnerships with a focus on partner countries that share EU values, including the respect for international law, and are able and willing to contribute to CSDP missions and operations.
There will also be a focus on capacity building for security and development in partner nations including for the prevention and management of crises on their own and developing civilian capabilities and enhancing the responsiveness of civilian crisis management, including the possible creation of a core responsiveness capacity;
A renewed effort will be made to reinforce military rapid response, including EU battlegroups.
And in a tacit endorsement of a multi-speed Europe, EU members are working on an inclusive “permanent structured cooperation” (PESCO), composed of EU member states which are willing and able to collaborate further in the area of security and defence. More cooperation with Nato will take place, including in counterterrorism.
The agenda is undoubtedly modest by world standards. The EU defence plans certainly pale in comparison to the military swagger of the US, China and Russia.
But it would be a mistake to discount European ambitions. And if it can mix and match its soft and hard power by combining aid, trade, diplomacy with some military muscle, the EU could become a smart power which is valued at home and abroad.
—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels.
Published in Dawn, May 20th, 2017
FRANKLY SPEAKING | China’s Belt and Road blueprint augurs changed global order
Domestic quarrels and a distaste for global engagement may be the hallmarks of Donald Trump’s erratic presidency of the United States, but the world is moving on.On 14 May Emmanuel Macron was inaugurated as French President, raising hopes of a re-energised European Union. On the same day in Beijing Chinese President Xi Jinping showcased his ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), an ambitious vision of a refashioned, interdependent and closely connected world.The three markedly distinct conversations in Washington, Paris and Beijing reflect different domestic imperatives. They also provide compelling insights into a rapidly transforming global order.Trump’s presidency hurtles from crisis to crisis, many nations are questioning America’s role as indispensable global power. In France (and Europe) the talk is of reform and renewal as a young president takes power – and of the hard work still required to modernise, adapt and adjust while keeping the twin evils of populism and nationalism at bay.But while the West takes time out, the rest of the world is in transition. The trillion-dollar BRI, Beijing’s ‘project of the century’, was spotlighted last weekend at a mega-conference attended by 28 world leaders, more than one hundred representatives of states, and an equal number of business representatives, academics and journalists.It was quite a party – and rightly so. Not since America’s Marshall Plan pumped millions of dollars to revive war-devastated Europe has a country undertaken an endeavour of such spectacular scope, vision and financial magnitude.
“While the West takes time out, the rest of the world is in transition”
The Chinese leader is no amateur when it comes to undertaking bold, headline-grabbing initiatives. He made a strong stand for economic globalisation and open trade at the Davos World Economic Forum in January this year.And the BRI is only part of the story. Significantly, China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is already working to meet the world’s enormous infrastructure investment needs.Also, as the US withdraws from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the pan-Asian trade pact which excluded China, Beijing and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are moving ahead with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to boost trade within the region.In a message that was in stark contrast to the inward-looking announcements being made in Washington, Xi told the BRI meeting that his aim was to build an open, connected and inclusive world.Xi’s blueprint articulates Beijing’s self-confident repositioning in an uncertain era. Not surprisingly, the US and Japan are not pleased. Most Europeans are interested but cautious.But others are willing to join BRI and see how they can best benefit from the plan. China may not always be the gentlest of interlocutors, but many countries are ready for a change.After all, the world needs to get better connected. Global infrastructure needs are enormous. Better connectivity is crucial for trade, to attract investments and to achieve some of the most crucial anti-poverty goals included in the Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Clearly, BRI is not just about helping others. The search for new engines for domestic Chinese economic growth is an important driver. China wants to boost growth in its western regions, which lag behind the well-developed east coast. Steel and cement are in oversupply and will be used in the BRI projects. There will be job creation for thousands of Chinese workers, as well as foreign nationals.
“Beijing’s journey to greater global influence has truly begun”
And in a competitive world, this is also about learning by doing. China will have to ensure that BRI becomes more transparent, procurement rules become more rigorous and projects fit in with the SDGs, including environmental standards.Significantly, as the initiative gains traction, China is beginning to conduct itself as a ‘traditional’ development partner, abandoning its ‘non-interference’ policies for a stance that is more concerned about the domestic affairs of its partner states, including on issues like governance and terrorism.Finally, for all the Western concerns that the BRI will allow China to steamroll its partners, in most countries China is not the only show in town. Most states have access to US and European funds, not to mention aid from Japan and Saudi Arabia. It’s not a zero-sum game.Asian, African and other representatives I met in Beijing underlined the importance of the tectonic geopolitical shift taking place. “This a historic and transformative moment. We can see the world is changing,” an African ambassador told me.The way ahead is going to be complicated and difficult. China will need to learn how to deal with complex demands and painful facts on the ground in its myriad partner countries.But if he was worried, President Xi certainly wasn’t showing it. Nobody should expect quick fixes, he cautioned. “We will move forward step by step”. Beijing’s journey to greater global influence has truly begun.
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Forget the doomsayers: Trump’s 100 days have been good for Europe
US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office have been a breathtaking rollercoaster ride for Americans, but also for many in Europe.He may be the least popular new president in the modern polling era (with an approval rating of just 41%) and mainstream American media (excluding Fox News and Breitbart) may talk disparagingly of ‘100 days of gibberish’, but the Trump presidency has been a wake-up call for Europeans, women, complacent liberal democrats, progressives, minorities of all kinds and for ‘citizens of the world’.Trump and Brexit have taught us that we can no longer take values like democracy, human rights and freedom of expression for granted. No more can we believe that racism and bigotry are evils of the past. We cannot be lazy about defending minorities, refugees, the vulnerable and the marginalised.After years of inertia and complacency about the progress we have made in living together, we now know that everything we have struggled to achieve – respect, human dignity, tolerance and building inclusive societies – can be taken away from us at any moment.We have learned about the evil and wickedness in people – the lies they can tell and the insults they can hurl. How ‘alternative facts’ can be more powerful than the truth. We have learned about stupidity and the power of a tweet.It’s been a steep learning curve. At times, the hateful narrative of the populists against the media, women, Jews, Muslims, African Americans and others has been cause for despair.But it’s also been energising, galvanising and reassuring. More than ever before, it’s made many of us appreciate the values, the raisons d’être and the significance of the European Union.In America, we’ve been impressed by the resilience of institutions and traditions of democratic constitutionalism as well as the formidable resistance put up by women, judges, officials and ordinary folk.The media, after having helped create the Trump phenomenon by abdicating their responsibility to question lies, are now back to performing their true function of speaking truth to power and checking facts.
It’s been a steep learning curve. At times, a cause for despair. But it’s also been energising, galvanising and reassuring.
As highlighted at a panel discussion organised in Brussels by the Committee for the Protection of Journalists last week, and ahead of the World Press Freedom Day on 3 May, the press is more aware than ever of its historical duty to challenge untruths and ‘fake news’.Here in Europe, we’ve also been learning fast. Europeans remain unsure and uncertain about what to make of President Trump and how to deal with him.British Prime Minister Theresa May’s cringe-making kowtowing visit to the White House doesn’t appear to have made much of an impression on Trump. He recently underlined that his priority was to do a trade deal with the EU, ahead of a similar pact with Britain.The US leader’s far-right acolytes in Europe – Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France – haven’t been as successful as Trump would have hoped.Wilders did not secure the crushing victory that many anticipated in the Dutch elections held in March. And (fingers crossed) Marine Le Pen is likely to lose out to the tolerant and pro-diversity candidate Emmanuel Macron in the second round of French presidential elections on 7 May.The British elections will probably result in a victory for the Conservatives, but Theresa May and her hopes for a “strong and stable government” is being challenged as never before.Across Europe, the conversation on immigration, refugees and Muslims is getting ever more animated. The European Commission is finally getting tough on Hungary.Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and NATO. After having urged other EU states to follow Britain’s lead by leaving the EU, Trump now believes that Europe is a “good thing”. NATO appears to have salvaged its reputation after having been denounced as an “obsolete” organisation.Even as they hanker for an American partner and ally that they could rely on, European leaders are learning, slowly and hesitatingly, to walk alone.The greatest test of whether Trump’s hold on Europe is truly broken will come on Sunday, with the French presidential vote.If, as many expect, Macron does win, Europe’s message to Trump will be clear: populism and bigotry are not universally popular. Not all Europeans want to turn back the clock. Many have the confidence and the courage to make globalisation work for them. Many believe in an open and progressive Europe. Many want hope.True, Trump is still the most powerful man in the world who can probably count on other ‘strongmen’ like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt or Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.But power in the 21st century isn’t about who shouts the loudest, has the most people in jail, the biggest missiles and the most destructive bombs. It’s about building societies based on hope, openness and inclusion.
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Macron’s breakthrough signals rising EU hopes
f elected president, Emmanuel Macron would change the narrative on Europe, say Giles Merritt and Shada Islam. The centrist candidate would not only breathe new life into the Franco-German ‘locomotive’ but offer a more hopeful and upbeat message for the future.
The European Union’s fortunes look to be on the rise. When Emmanuel Macron topped the poll in the first round of France’s presidential election – putting him on course for the Elysée Palace in the final round on 7 May – there emerged a single clear message from what political analysts had been describing as an unprecedented muddle.The message is that this French election joins at least three others this year as more a European than a domestic election. The snap 8 June election called last week by British Prime Minister Theresa May is all about Brexit. The mid-March general election in the Netherlands marked a significant defeat for Eurosceptic Geert Wilders. September’s German elections will determine Berlin’s future positions on many key EU questions.But the outcome of the French election is unquestionably the most vital. The country’s left-right political tussle is being eclipsed by starkly different positions on the EU’s future.All around Europe there have been fears that if the National Front’s Marine Le Pen were to gain the presidency it would spell the end for the EU in its present form. Her battle cry has been withdrawal from the eurozone and a ‘Frexit’ referendum on quitting the EU.These threats alone guarantee Macron the support of many voters other than rabid Eurosceptics; his platform is encouragingly Europhile. He wants eurozone reform in the shape of a common budget under a eurozone ‘finance minister’, and he also proposes ‘democratic conventions’ to identify EU reform priorities.
“Macron’s pro-European stance is important for revitalising the European Union”
Whether Macron can reconcile his pro-market reforms to boost France’s competitiveness with his stance on supportive social policies remains to be seen. The unpopularity of the current President, François Hollande, stems in large measure from attempting just that.But if elected president, Emmanuel Macron’s most significant achievement would be to breathe new life into the Franco-German ‘locomotive’. The Paris-Berlin axis that had driven European unity forward for many years lost momentum when French support waned, and now it looks set for revival.Macron’s pro-European stance is important for revitalising the EU. Also significant for the future of Europe is Macron’s refreshing and counter-intuitive no-holds-barred defence of liberal democratic values.Certainly, Le Pen’s performance in the first round is proof of the continuing appeal of populist and nativist politicians who can win over disaffected anti-globalisation Europeans with simplistic (and misleading) messages. Her party is not going to go away.And let’s not overlook the frustrations of those who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s mix of social reform, higher public spending and hostility to the EU.But with Macron eschewing nostalgic nationalism in favour of hope and openness, France has sent an important message to those who thought populism and bigotry provided the only road to electoral success.Not all Europeans want to turn back the clock. Many have the confidence and the courage to make globalisation work for them. Many believe in an open and progressive Europe. Many want hope. And most are fed up with traditional political parties and their time-honoured left-right divide, especially on economic issues.
“Not all Europeans want to turn back the clock – many have the confidence and the courage to make globalisation work for them”
There are other lessons to be learned by European politicians, especially ahead of British and German elections and for those preparing for the European Parliament polls in 2019.Macron stands in stark contrast to the divisive ‘us and them’ rhetoric from US President Donald Trump and the hard-hitting anti-immigration stance taken by May and those pushing for a hard Brexit. Like Dutch GreenLeft leader Jesse Klaver and Austria’s Alexander Van der Bellen, Macron has stayed on message with his views on tolerance, inclusion and ending discrimination.Significantly, unlike May and Dutch Premier Mark Rutte, who have embraced aspects of the tough anti–immigrant agenda espoused by populists, Macron stayed true to his agenda of an open France, even in the face of public outrage at the tragic terrorist attack just days before the elections.Macron campaigned energetically for the votes of France’s disaffected citizens of immigrant descent, voicing anger at their marginalisation, insisting they were part of France’s future and saying he favoured “positive discrimination” to end decades of neglect.His campaign was refreshingly free of anti-Muslim diatribes. Macron has told voters security will “not be better served by closing national borders,” and insisted even as Le Pen lashed out against Islam that “No religion is a problem in France today. We have a duty to let everybody practice their religion with dignity.”On 7 May, France once again faces a historical choice. It can opt to look inwards, leave the EU, and embrace policies based on hate and fear. Or French voters can really move ‘forward’ with a politician whose upbeat message will, in Macron’s own words, highlight “the new face of French hope”.You may also like:
- Friends of Europe: Europe has to decide on an offensive strategy to take the lead in the 4th Industrial Revolution, by Alexander De Croo
- Europe’s World: Give the people what they want? by Catherine Fieschi
- Debating Europe: Who do you think will be the next French president?
IMAGE CREDIT: BigStockPhoto / Pixinoo
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Brexit and the joys of starting over
Anniversaries are special moments. They can be sombre affairs, such as the first anniversary of the Brussels terror attacks, an occasion made even grimmer by the 22 March tragedy in London.Anniversaries can also be a time for reflection and sober deliberation. The European Union’s celebration of its 60th anniversary on 25 March was just such a moment.And then there is 29 March. History is being made today as Britain triggers Article 50 and starts negotiations on its divorce from (sorry, its ‘new relationship’ with) the EU.Brexiteers are in celebratory mood. After all, it’s not every day that a nation takes back control of its destiny, unshackles itself from 44 years of EU domination and morphs magically into an independent and intrepid world power (also known as ‘Global Britain’).But pro-EU demonstrations in London are proof that not everyone is dancing with joy. Many share European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s description of Britain’s departure from the EU as a “tragedy”.Not to be forgotten amid the Brexit focus is a simple fact: it’s not just Britain that is starting over.29 March will also be remembered as the formal birthday of the new ‘EU-27’. Having renewed their vows in Rome, EU leaders embark on a new journey together, without Britain.It will be a difficult voyage. Far-right populism, increased polarisation of minorities and unending economic problems are not going away anytime soon. Refugees and migrants will continue to knock on Europe’s doors, creating divisions and challenging EU solidarity. Difficult elections lie ahead in France, Germany and possibly Italy.
“29 March will be remembered as the formal birthday of the new ‘EU-27’”
The American and Russian presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, now joined by Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have made no secret of their dislike of the EU and all it stands for.But the conversation is changing. Thankfully last year’s talk of a ‘collective depression’ and ‘existential crisis’ is no longer making headlines. Instead, as Paolo Gentiloni, the Italian premier and host for the Rome celebrations underlined, “the EU is choosing to start again”.This is good news. Starting over, as John Lennon sang to us all those years ago, can be exciting and exhilarating. EU-27 leaders would do well to take Lennon’s advice and put more poetry, emotion and imagination into their courtship of EU citizens.The thousand-word Rome declaration is good enough, but won’t really do the trick. If Europeans are to fall in love again with the EU, leaders, ministers, politicians, even EU officials, must – as Lennon sings – “spread their wings and fly”.Perhaps for the first time in recent history, the public in many parts of Europe wants the EU to soar.Brexit, Trump’s election and just plain common sense about the need to work together in a difficult world have galvanised many Europeans into supporting the EU.Importantly, there are European politicians who are passionate about countering the anti-EU message of xenophobic far-right politicians.
“We will miss Britain – but we can also make sure that the heartbreak of Brexit goes hand-in-hand with the emergence of a reinvigorated European Union”
Jesse Klaver, the charismatic young leader of the Dutch GreenLeft party, Emmanuel Macron in France, and Martin Schulz of the German Social Democrats are upfront about their support for the EU, embracing the vision of an open and diverse Europe.Klaver, who increased his party’s seats in the Dutch parliament by a factor of four, has shown that being Dutch-Moroccan-Indonesian is not a barrier to success. His advice to young people is to “never give up” in the face of challenges.Others need to have a similarly positive message of inclusion and participation. A safe and secure Europe must also be an inclusive one, not one that fears diversity.The EU in the 21st century may be ‘multi-speed’, with less being done in Brussels and more in capitals. It may or may not be able to become a more powerful global player and may or may not have a real common defence and security policy.But what’s important is that the conversation about Europe’s future has started.Indian author and diplomat Shashi Tharoor pointed recently to the “shambles of that original Brexit” when the British departed from India in 1947, leaving behind chaos and violence – and the birth of independent India and Pakistan.This time it’s different. We will miss Britain – some of us very much. But we can also make sure that the heartbreak of Brexit goes hand-in-hand with the emergence of a reinvigorated European Union.Anniversaries are special moments. They can be sombre affairs, such as the first anniversary of the Brussels terror attacks, an occasion made even grimmer by the 22 March tragedy in London.Anniversaries can also be a time for reflection and sober deliberation. The European Union’s celebration of its 60th anniversary on 25 March was just such a moment.And then there is 29 March. History is being made today as Britain triggers Article 50 and starts negotiations on its divorce from (sorry, its ‘new relationship’ with) the EU.Brexiteers are in celebratory mood. After all, it’s not every day that a nation takes back control of its destiny, unshackles itself from 44 years of EU domination and morphs magically into an independent and intrepid world power (also known as ‘Global Britain’).But pro-EU demonstrations in London are proof that not everyone is dancing with joy. Many share European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s description of Britain’s departure from the EU as a “tragedy”.Not to be forgotten amid the Brexit focus is a simple fact: it’s not just Britain that is starting over.29 March will also be remembered as the formal birthday of the new ‘EU-27’. Having renewed their vows in Rome, EU leaders embark on a new journey together, without Britain.It will be a difficult voyage. Far-right populism, increased polarisation of minorities and unending economic problems are not going away anytime soon. Refugees and migrants will continue to knock on Europe’s doors, creating divisions and challenging EU solidarity. Difficult elections lie ahead in France, Germany and possibly Italy.
“29 March will be remembered as the formal birthday of the new ‘EU-27’”
The American and Russian presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, now joined by Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have made no secret of their dislike of the EU and all it stands for.But the conversation is changing. Thankfully last year’s talk of a ‘collective depression’ and ‘existential crisis’ is no longer making headlines. Instead, as Paolo Gentiloni, the Italian premier and host for the Rome celebrations underlined, “the EU is choosing to start again”.This is good news. Starting over, as John Lennon sang to us all those years ago, can be exciting and exhilarating. EU-27 leaders would do well to take Lennon’s advice and put more poetry, emotion and imagination into their courtship of EU citizens.The thousand-word Rome declaration is good enough, but won’t really do the trick. If Europeans are to fall in love again with the EU, leaders, ministers, politicians, even EU officials, must – as Lennon sings – “spread their wings and fly”.Perhaps for the first time in recent history, the public in many parts of Europe wants the EU to soar.Brexit, Trump’s election and just plain common sense about the need to work together in a difficult world have galvanised many Europeans into supporting the EU.Importantly, there are European politicians who are passionate about countering the anti-EU message of xenophobic far-right politicians.
“We will miss Britain – but we can also make sure that the heartbreak of Brexit goes hand-in-hand with the emergence of a reinvigorated European Union”
Jesse Klaver, the charismatic young leader of the Dutch GreenLeft party, Emmanuel Macron in France, and Martin Schulz of the German Social Democrats are upfront about their support for the EU, embracing the vision of an open and diverse Europe.Klaver, who increased his party’s seats in the Dutch parliament by a factor of four, has shown that being Dutch-Moroccan-Indonesian is not a barrier to success. His advice to young people is to “never give up” in the face of challenges.Others need to have a similarly positive message of inclusion and participation. A safe and secure Europe must also be an inclusive one, not one that fears diversity.The EU in the 21st century may be ‘multi-speed’, with less being done in Brussels and more in capitals. It may or may not be able to become a more powerful global player and may or may not have a real common defence and security policy.But what’s important is that the conversation about Europe’s future has started.Indian author and diplomat Shashi Tharoor pointed recently to the “shambles of that original Brexit” when the British departed from India in 1947, leaving behind chaos and violence – and the birth of independent India and Pakistan.This time it’s different. We will miss Britain – some of us very much. But we can also make sure that the heartbreak of Brexit goes hand-in-hand with the emergence of a reinvigorated European Union.
View from abroad: Brexit and the birth pangs of ‘EU 27’
Anniversaries are special moments when we take the time to look back and look ahead.
They can be sombre affairs as was the case for the first anniversary of the Brussels terror attacks that killed 32 people and injured many more last year on March 22.
Anniversaries can also be a time for reflection. The EU’s celebration of its 60th anniversary on March 25, marking the moment when the Treaty of Rome was signed and a war-devastated Europe decided to embark on a new era of peace and reconciliation, is a case in point.
Leaders are meeting in Rome for just such a moment of sober deliberation on the bloc’s past and future.
And then there is March 29, the birthday of a “new EU of 27”. History will be made when Britain triggers Article 50 and starts negotiations on its divorce — sorry it’s “new relationship” — with the EU.
Let’s take a closer look. The terrorist attack in London on March 22 made the commemoration of last year’s carnage in Brussels an even grimmer affair.
Brussels is coming back to life after a difficult few months when the city faced a slump in tourism, businesses languished and soldiers appeared on streets.
But with the attacks in London on our TV screens, Europeans have realised that terror can come suddenly and horribly to any country, any city, anywhere.
The EU’s 60th anniversary on March 25, on the other hand, is a bittersweet affair. True, the bloc is celebrating seven decades of peace, the embrace of former Communist nations in Eastern and Central Europe, a frontier-free single market and a single currency.
However, many countries have also seen a rise in Far Right populism, increased polarisation of minorities and unending economic problems. There is much talk of a “collective depression” across the EU. Some have warned that the EU is in the midst of an “existential crisis”.
As it turns 60, however, and Britain triggers Article 50, EU policymakers want us to mark the birth of a new Union of 27 states.
As EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg recently, “27 of our Member States will stand shoulder to shoulder in peace, solidarity and friendship to mark the 60th Anniversary of the Treaties of Rome”.
And he added: “This will not simply be a birthday celebration. It will also be the ‘birth moment’ of the European Union at 27.”
The Commission President’s message is simple: the EU is turning a new page, commencing a new chapter in it its history. Instead of brooding about losing Britain, it’s time the EU charted out a course for the future of an EU-27.
British Prime Minister Theresa May will not be attending the Treaty of Rome celebrations but if she has any qualms about Brexit, she certainly isn’t showing it.
The news from London is that Britain’ split from the EU after 44 years of living together will be nice and painless. Britain and the EU will remain very good friends.
As British officials like to point out, Britain is exiting the EU, not Europe. Yes, Britain will no longer be in the single market, there will be no customs union, no free movement of people and the future of EU citizens in Britain and British citizens in Europe will remain uncertain.
But apart from that you will hardly notice any change at all. Global Britain will still be Europe’s friend and partner. There will be strong cooperation in areas such as security and counter-terrorism. A new free trade agreement will be just as good as membership of the single market.
It will be neat and tidy, all loose ends nicely tied. Pragmatism and common sense will prevail.
Except they may not. There is that wretched question of the Brexit bill that the EU insists that London must pay. Scotland wants a second referendum on independence.
Officials in Brussels have estimated Britain’s share of debts, pensions and unpaid bills ranges from €55bn to €60bn. Many in Britain say the bill is absurdly high but Brussels has warned that a deal on the cash is essential before.
Michel Bernard Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, and others believe that Britain hasn’t really understood what Brexit really means in practice. They warn that talks will be complex and no detail will go “untouched”.
And if as some warn, Britain does decide that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, Barnier has made clear that a chaotic exit would lead to “total uncertainty” for citizens, a breakdown in trade links and chaos at border posts as customs controls are re-introduced.
That may sound grim. But the EU should take heart. Britain’s withdrawal from the EU won’t be quite as bad as what Indian diplomat and author Shashi Tharoor has called the “shambles of that original Brexit” when the British departed from India in 1947, leaving behind a trail of blood, murder and violence — and the birth of independent India and Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2017
The Empire Strikes Back - really?
You may have noticed: as Britain prepares to leave the European Union, dreams of the Raj are back. Actually, it’s not just the Raj which is on the minds of Britain’s Brexiteers but the even more glorious memory of “Empire”. You know the one where the sun never sets?
I can just see it. Freed of “EU shackles”, Britain becomes a stand-alone, autonomous super power. Swishing his blonde locks, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson wafts in and out of the “colonies”, signing off on aid agreements for the poor while Trade Minister Liam Fox does amazingly lucrative free trade deals.
It’s the way it should be. No more listening to instructions from Brussels, no more following EU rules and regulations. Just London and the Commonwealth. Ah, the Commonwealth. That wonderful albeit peculiar, toothless institution of 52 nations, some big and small, some white, black and brown, some democracies and dictatorships and some a bit of both.
A diverse group of 2.4 billion people who all look back with great nostalgia at a time when Britain ruled the waves, the rivers, the mountains and the lands and despite all odds brought “civilisation” to unwashed millions. Only it didn’t quite happen that way. And the dreams are often nightmares. While Brexit Britain may be basking in the mellow golden glow of “nostalgic nationalism”, for many of the Empire’s former citizens, the past was pretty awful.
Just ask Shashi Tharoor, Indian member of parliament, author of Inglorious Empire and former UN under-secretary general who said recently: “There’s no real awareness of the atrocities, of the fact that Britain financed its Industrial Revolution and its prosperity from the depredations of empire, the fact that Britain came to one of the richest countries in the world in the 18th century and reduced it, after two centuries of plunder, to one of the poorest.”
Oh dear. But the new post-Brexit “Global Britain” is going to be different, right? Once Article 50 is triggered and the Brexit divorce procedures start in earnest, Britain will be dealing with its former colonies aka Commonwealth partners as equals.
Yes, of course. But then why are some already branding new British plans for stronger ties — including free trade agreements — with the Commonwealth as “Empire 2.0”? Let’s turn again to the articulate Mr Tharoor. Asked how the British offer to sign a free trade agreement with India would go down in Delhi, the Indian diplomat responded: “Like a lead balloon.”
That said, Commonwealth ministers responsible for trade, industry and investment did meet in London last week to kick-start an ambitious ‘Agenda for Growth’ across the Commonwealth. The first meeting of its kind was convened by the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC) and the Commonwealth Secretariat.
Over two days, ministers from over 30 Commonwealth countries consulted with business leaders and trade experts on “how to boost intra-Commonwealth trade from 17 per cent to 25 per cent over the next three years.” The meeting follows on from the Commonwealth Business Forum in Malta in November 2015.
This is good news of course. As US President Donald Trump thumbs his nose at free trade and fears of protectionism stalk the world, it is important that nations across the globe reiterate their belief in global trade liberalisation.
But let’s lay to rest another Empire 2.0 myth: that Britain will find it easier, simpler to negotiate free trade agreements with its Commonwealth friends than the EU does. It just won’t be that simple. Trade negotiations are complicated affairs. And while Britain may hope it can get quick deals with key Commonwealth members — Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India — it is unlikely to be so.
Canada already has a free trade deal with the EU, but the other countries are interested, first, in clinching their ongoing free trade talks with the EU before they start talking to Britain. After all, the European market is still the largest in the world. Also, many of the obstacles that have arisen in the EU trade talks with, say, India are going to emerge also in Britain’s trade negotiations with Commonwealth countries.
And while some African countries may be tempted to opt for trade agreements with Britain rather than negotiate the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) that the EU is struggling to clinch with them, there is no guarantee these will be any easier to negotiate than trade accords with Europe.
It is understandable that Britain should seek new trade partners following its withdrawal from the EU. But British Prime Minister Theresa May is wrong to talk about the “desperate” desire by Commonwealth countries to form new trade deals with Britain. Most of these countries are eager and determined to secure good trade and investment treaties with the EU — and this is unlikely to change after Brexit.
And in any case, clinging to the past is an exercise in futility. Europe and Britain, once it exits the world’s largest and most dynamic border-free European single market, should be looking to China, Brazil and Mexico, the markets of the future, not wallowing in the past. Reviving the Commonwealth is not an alternative to Brexit.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, March 11th, 2017
VIEW FROM ABROAD: Some in Europe question US focus on military spending
THE world is divided in two camps: those who believe that “hard security”, armies, guns, aircraft carriers and boots-on-the-ground are primordial in defining national power. And those who take a broader view of security, believing in the significance of so-called “soft” issues, which link security to development, health, resources, environmental degradation and governance — as well as gender and values.
New US President Donald Trump is clearly a hard security man. He talks and tweets tough. The men surrounding him are hardened ex-military officers and even those who are not clearly think wearing a uniform is the best thing in the world.
In Pakistan and in many other parts of Asia, hard security is also the name of the game. In many South Asian nations, defence spending takes priority over health and education. Military men loom large on the political landscape. Countries — Pakistan and India for instance — appear to be only a heartbeat away from war.
But other Asian countries, including in Southeast Asia are also focusing on what many call “non-traditional security” — which Singaporean expert Mely Caballero-Anthony defines as “challenges to the survival and well-being of peoples and states that arise primarily out of non-military sources, such as climate change, cross-border environmental degradation and resource depletion, infectious diseases, natural disasters, irregular migration, food shortages, people smuggling, drug trafficking, and other forms of transnational crime”.
Soldiers can defend borders against invading armies but they can’t fight climate change or pandemics — although they can be useful in delivering disaster-related aid and getting food to people in need.
Clearly, security and development are inextricably linked: there can be no sustainable development without peace and security while development and poverty eradication are crucial to a viable peace.
Which is why the recent transatlantic row over US demands that the EU spend more on defence is so interesting.
The message from the US over the last few days has been very clear. Europe is not spending enough on defence, with many countries still not meeting the target of two per cent of GDP expenditure earmarked for building up the military. The target is being met only by Britain, Greece, Poland, and Estonia, say experts.
“America cannot care more for your children’s future security than you do,” US Defence Secretary James Mattis told Nato defence ministers in Brussels, warning: “If your nations do not want to see America moderate its commitment to this alliance, each of your capitals needs to show support for our common defence.”
Europe’s response has been two-fold. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said he wants the EU to set up its own army.
Significantly, he has also insisted that Europe must not cave in to US demands to raise military spending, arguing that development and humanitarian aid should also count as security.
“I don’t like our American friends narrowing down this concept of security to the military,” Juncker underlined, arguing it would be sensible to look at a “modern stability policy” made up of several components.
“If you look at what Europe is doing in defence, plus development aid, plus humanitarian aid, the comparison with the United States looks rather different. Modern politics cannot just be about raising defence spending,” he said.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also resisted the US ultimatum, claiming Germany will not speed up on any existing plans to ramp up the country’s military budget by 2024.
said Germany had already increased defence spending by 8pc in this year’s budget, adding: “We must do more here, no question, but the matters of development aid and crisis prevention are also important.”
Development aid was crucial to ensure security, said Merkel. “When we help people in their home countries to live a better life and thereby prevent crises, this is also a contribution to security,” she said at the Munich Security Conference. She added: “So I will not be drawn into a debate about who is more military-minded and who is less.”
The debate is, in fact, even more complicated. European non-governmental organisations have criticised EU governments over the growing use of foreign aid budgets to meet refugee costs at home and say that the EU is backsliding on its aid spending commitments, having again failed to meet its pledge to spend 0.7pc of gross national income on development aid last year.
Only five countries were found to have met their 2015 targets: Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden and UK.
British ministers are reportedly eager to divert aid from “wasteful” projects in Africa and Asia to allies in eastern Europe in a bid to get a better deal on Brexit.
In any case, the definition of development aid is becoming wider and more fluid than many like.
The OECD’s development assistance committee has expanded the definition of overseas aid to include limited forms of counterterrorism and military activities or training.
Funding towards activities that prevent violent extremism will now be ODA-eligible, as long as the activities “are led by donor countries and their primary purpose is developmental” and they respect the “peaceful exercise of political, social and economic rights”.
Interestingly the debate ignores the fact that while ODA is still important, it is being dwarfed by private sector investments, remittances and the mobilisation of domestic resources in developing countries.
Like other tough guys, Donald Trump clearly does not like soft power. But at least some Europeans think it is time to rethink the notion of global security.
—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels
Published in Dawn, February 25th, 2017
FRANKLY SPEAKING | Europe-Asia relations become a priority in the age of Trump
Asian governments are still trying to make sense of Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to their region.After lambasting both Tokyo and Beijing over their trade and currency policies, the new President of the United States has made constructive contact with the leaders of both Japan and China.But conflicting statements by American policymakers indicate that Washington will take time to craft a lucid, well-thought-out policy towards Asia.As America reassesses its Asia policy, Europe must redefine its own relationship with the region. Asia’s economic growth continues to be strong, but political antagonisms and rivalries are on the rise.North Korea’s recent firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast, the first such test since the US election, is one important indication of Asia’s significance for global security.European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini’s recent visit to the US, where she discussed the future of the Iran nuclear deal with the new administration, is a welcome sign of Europe’s proactive stance on global challenges.The EU should show similar determination to craft a standalone policy towards Asia which, despite America’s dominant presence and China’s growing clout, still looks to Europe for trade, investment, technology and security support.
“It’s time for the European Union to further enhance its own distinct trade, political and security profile in the region”
America has been both a rival and a vital ally as Europe has expanded its ties with Asian countries. It’s time now for the EU to further enhance its own distinct trade, political and security profile in the region.Brexit and the EU’s many other crisis and economic woes have tarnished some of Europe’s lustre. But here are three ways in which Europe and Asia can work together to ease some of the anxieties of the Trump era.First, Europeans and Asians have a common interest in working together on issues such as climate change, preserving the Iran deal and safeguarding multilateral institutions, including the United Nations.In addition to its soft power credentials in areas such as peace-building, preventive diplomacy and conflict management, the EU is also a valuable partner for Asia in areas such as maritime security (including anti-piracy operations), counter-terrorism and fighting cybercrime.A more visible European security profile in Asia will have the added benefit of helping the EU’S long-standing desire to join the East Asia Summit, an annual forum of Asian countries that since 2011 has included the US and Russia.Second, given America’s decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and its disinterest in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the EU should work harder to finally clinch pending free trade agreements with Japan, India and individual South-East Asian countries.As EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström underlined recently, trade is essential for employment – with some 31 million European jobs dependent on exports – and a way to spread good values and standards.Brussels should therefore get serious about negotiating a free trade pact with the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and speed up trade talks with Australia and New Zealand.Importantly, the EU and Asians should join forces to inject new life into the World Trade Organization.
“Europe needs to use its influence to prevent the rise of unwise nationalisms, destructive conflicts and confrontation”
Third, the EU should make a serious effort to upgrade its bilateral relations with Asia’s key players and regional organisations.Brussels has worked hard over the years to engage in a sustained manner with China, Japan, Korea, India and ASEAN. These links are significant and impressive but often get muddied by small irritants. They must be given more resilience, strategic substance and direction.Europe should take a closer look at other regional initiatives in Asia such as trilateral cooperation efforts by Japan, China and Korea (whose relationships with the Trump administration will be the subject of a Friends of Europe debate on 22 February).While disagreements over historical issues and North Korea have long strained relations between the three countries, Japanese, Chinese and Korean leaders have held several trilateral summits since 2008 and are currently reassessing ties to take account of the new US administration.Another summit is being mooted while the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat in Seoul continues to work on its mandate to promote peace and common prosperity between the three countries.In addition, in today’s uncertain and volatile world, ASEM (the Asia-Europe Meeting), which brings together more than 50 European and Asian countries, is needed more than ever to deepen connections and networks.The EU’s Global Strategy calls for a deepening of economic diplomacy and an increased security role for the EU in Asia. That commitment should be translated urgently into action.Europe’s history and experience make it imperative that it uses its influence to prevent the rise – both at home and abroad – of unwise nationalisms, destructive conflicts and confrontation.Friends of Europe’s regular ‘Frankly Speaking’ column takes a critical look at key European and global issues.
FRANKLY SPEAKING | As Trump disengages from the world, Europe and others can take the lead
The new President of the United States, Donald Trump, is upending liberal democracy, spreading ‘alternative facts’ and smashing civilised values.The loss of US leadership in championing democracy and human rights is worrying. But America’s retreat from the global stage is also an opportunity for others to craft a different vision for living together in the 21st century.As Trump puts ‘America first’ and disengages from the world, other nations must take the lead in fashioning more inclusive societies, rethinking global governance, reforming and galvanising multilateral institutions and creating new networks and coalitions.Europe can and should be at the forefront. It can do so by rebuilding its fractured unity but also by revamping and reinforcing its still-fragile global profile. Given the rapidity with which Trump is enacting his campaign promises there is little time to lose.The European Union’s response should be in three steps.First, EU leaders should use their forthcoming summit in Valetta to take a hard look at just how Europe is going to conduct itself in the Trump era.Second, the EU must rethink its stance on refugees and immigration, its trade and aid policies, and its relations with key emerging powers – including Russia and China, which have markedly divergent views on Trump.And third, ahead of the Treaty of Rome anniversary on 25 March and elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly Italy, Europe’s mainstream democratic parties must work harder to forge a new and inspirational narrative to counter populist rhetoric and reconnect with citizens.
“America’s retreat from the global stage is an opportunity for others to craft a different vision for living together in the 21stcentury”
The EU must act quickly. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has already told Trump that the war on terrorism is not an adequate reason to renege on the 1951 Geneva Convention, which requires signatories to help people fleeing from conflict.The Valetta summit should go further. It should send an even stronger message to the new American administration on the ‘Muslim ban’ and other controversial edicts of the last few weeks.If it is to be taken seriously, however, the EU must practice what it preaches and stop EU leaders who are also spreading anti-Muslim and anti-migrant hate and fear.Individual EU governments and leaders who think they can forge bilateral bonds with Washington should learn from the British Prime Minister, Theresa May. Even holding the President’s hand and showering him with compliments is no guarantee he will spare you major embarrassment just hours later.EU policymakers are also well advised to bury the illusion that Trump’s appointments will be more Euro-friendly than their boss.For further proof, European leaders should listen carefully to Trump’s likely pick for ambassador to the EU, Ted Malloch. He told the BBC that he was looking forward to being in Brussels because he had previously “helped bring down the Soviet Union. So maybe there’s another union that needs a little taming.”Time must not be lost in rethinking Europe’s refugee, migration, trade, aid and foreign and security policies.Certainly, all European nations should meet the NATO commitment to spend two percent of gross domestic product on defence. But the EU’s global security strategy, adopted last summer, needs to be revised to take account of new geopolitical realities triggered by Trump’s isolationism.
“EU leaders should now grab the opportunity to grow up, and morph Europe into a global actor in its own right”
The EU is certainly on the right track. The last few years have seen Europe stepping up its engagement in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, even though discord remains on key issues, such as relations with Russia.Significantly, as President Trump moves to make the his country more insular, transactional, and narrowly interest-driven – saying the US will buy American and hire American – China has set up stall as the defender of economic globalisation and free world trade. As Chinese President Xi Jinping warned at the Davos World Economic Forum last month, “No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war”.And as Trump pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull made clear he was ready to press on with the TPP with China, rather than US, at the centre.Others are also stepping into the space being vacated by America. When Trump signed an executive order known as the ‘global gag rule’, withholding US government funding from aid groups that perform or promote abortions, the Dutch and Belgian governments said they would help set up an international abortion fund.The EU has so far been more than happy to play second fiddle to the US, shadowing Washington on most international issues, and waiting for the US to make up its mind before taking a stance.But all has changed. EU leaders should now grab the opportunity to grow up, and morph Europe into a global actor in its own right.Friends of Europe’s regular ‘Frankly Speaking’ column takes a critical look at key European and global issues.